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Author Topic: COVID-19 updates  (Read 37811 times)

armand

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COVID-19 updates
« on: March 14, 2020, 12:37:20 pm »

I see the previous thread was closed, I hope we can keep this more factual.

A good map of the current status: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Works better on a larger screen

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #1 on: March 14, 2020, 12:49:51 pm »

KLaban

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #2 on: March 14, 2020, 01:05:34 pm »

I see the previous thread was closed, I hope we can keep this more factual.

A good map of the current status: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Works better on a larger screen

No evidence that this was actioned by the moderator: perhaps the OP?

armand

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #3 on: March 14, 2020, 02:54:49 pm »

"Scientists found regions hit hard by coronavirus share similar climate"

https://www.inkstonenews.com/science/scientists-found-regions-hit-hard-coronavirus-share-similar-climate/article/3075085?fbclid=IwAR34cWtlGK4bWNiqUdIireKw-UNvOQQGsUB187mOR6MjTPaJFFRc6whSbOY

Possibly explains the absence of Russia.

Could be but it's a little too early to tell, the worst has yet to come in many places.

Robert Roaldi

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #4 on: March 14, 2020, 03:05:08 pm »

I just listened to a good Joe Rogan podcast interview with Michael Osterholm, a specialist in infectious diseases, http://podcasts.joerogan.net/podcasts/michael-osterholm .

It is an interesting wide-ranging informal discussion, not just about novel Covid-19, although there is a lot about that. It is apolitical, an on-topic statement of facts and some personal opinion about the entire area of infectious disease, a strategic overview. For example, Osterholm pointed out several years ago that 95% (or some high number) of the world’s IV bags were manufactured in one place in Puerto Rico. He questioned the wisdom of that, what if a Cat 5 hurricane hit the island? Well, it happened and there was a sudden world-wide shortage of them. He points out other failures of strategic planning to do with lack of stockpiling of some equipment. It's a widespread problem as hospitals and such adopt just-in-time inventory management, which works fine until it doesn't. Osterholm has personal experience with SARS, MERS, etc., he knows the field very well. Towards the end, there is an interesting discussion about Lyme disease and tick migration, about which I knew very little.

It is not a "heavy" scientific talk, it's very conversational, easy to listen to. Just one warning, they are both critical of anti-vaxers. 


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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #5 on: March 14, 2020, 03:10:51 pm »

"Scientists found regions hit hard by coronavirus share similar climate"

https://www.inkstonenews.com/science/scientists-found-regions-hit-hard-coronavirus-share-similar-climate/article/3075085?fbclid=IwAR34cWtlGK4bWNiqUdIireKw-UNvOQQGsUB187mOR6MjTPaJFFRc6whSbOY

Possibly explains the absence of Russia.


Problem is the temperature is changing due to seasons.  So colder areas will have similar temperature where the disease is currently.

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #6 on: March 14, 2020, 03:30:27 pm »

Osterholm pointed out several years ago that 95% (or some high number) of the world’s IV bags were manufactured in one place in Puerto Rico. He questioned the wisdom of that, what if a Cat 5 hurricane hit the island? Well, it happened and there was a sudden world-wide shortage of them. He points out other failures of strategic planning to do with lack of stockpiling of some equipment. It's a widespread problem as hospitals and such adopt just-in-time inventory management, which works fine until it doesn't. Osterholm has personal experience with SARS, MERS, etc., he knows the field very well.
Congress put in place a tax break that has since been repealed, to encourage the development of industry in Puerto Rico.  It was one of the reasons a large number of pharma and diagnostic companies located manufacturing there.  Once the tax break was gone, most of the industry moved away, in some cases relocating manufacturing in China.  there are stockpiles of medical equipment and drugs here in the US.  Unfortunately, much of this is not useful for viral pandemics as there are not and medicines or vaccines.  When I was consulting for a DOD think tank, I had information on that kind of stuff but that was probably 15 years ago and I have not kept up on it.  When I was still in research at NIH, I was working on a couple of pathogenic microorganism and more looped in and even spent some time as a consultant to the old Congressional Office of Technology Assessment when they were doing a large project on Weapons of Mass Destruction and I was on the advisory panel for that project.  Interesting stuff as we covered biological, chemical and nuclear weapons.  Report is archived here:  https://www.princeton.edu/~ota/ns20/year_f.html
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armand

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #7 on: March 14, 2020, 03:55:19 pm »

I just listened to a good Joe Rogan podcast interview with Michael Osterholm, a specialist in infectious diseases, http://podcasts.joerogan.net/podcasts/michael-osterholm .

It is an interesting wide-ranging informal discussion, not just about novel Covid-19, although there is a lot about that. It is apolitical, an on-topic statement of facts and some personal opinion about the entire area of infectious disease, a strategic overview. For example, Osterholm pointed out several years ago that 95% (or some high number) of the world’s IV bags were manufactured in one place in Puerto Rico. He questioned the wisdom of that, what if a Cat 5 hurricane hit the island? Well, it happened and there was a sudden world-wide shortage of them. He points out other failures of strategic planning to do with lack of stockpiling of some equipment. It's a widespread problem as hospitals and such adopt just-in-time inventory management, which works fine until it doesn't. Osterholm has personal experience with SARS, MERS, etc., he knows the field very well. Towards the end, there is an interesting discussion about Lyme disease and tick migration, about which I knew very little.

It is not a "heavy" scientific talk, it's very conversational, easy to listen to. Just one warning, they are both critical of anti-vaxers.

I recall the iv shortage after Puerto Rico, fun stuff. Not.
Unfortunately it is not a singular case, we live from shortage to shortage, they just keep changing. Related to China there was a recent heparin shortage because they got hit with the swine flu and most of the heparin was made there on pigs.

Rob C

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #8 on: March 14, 2020, 04:24:31 pm »

Could be but it's a little too early to tell, the worst has yet to come in many places.


Spain and Scotland share very few such similarities. Relatively spring-like here but not up there.

Perhaps it's the centripetal force of Earth's rotation pulls it down to a certain level.

Oh well, now and then one guess is as good as another.

Rob

BJL

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #9 on: March 14, 2020, 05:08:27 pm »

On the “single point of failure” risk when production of essential items is too concentrated, guess which country dominates production of medical face masks?
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LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #10 on: March 14, 2020, 05:12:16 pm »

Stockpiling masks and other medical items is also not a foolproof strategy.
After the SARS epidemic, Ontario stockpiled 55 million N95 masks and other medical items. Recently they announced that all those stockpiled masks have passed their expiration date. You really need multiple manufacturing facilities spread geographically.



Speaking about masks - in Hongkong they found that because of so many people there wearying the masks, not only they have relatively few cases of Covid19, but also the number of influenza cases is much lower than in the previous years. So it seems that the masks are quite effective in guarding against the viruses.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2020, 05:43:27 pm by LesPalenik »
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #11 on: March 14, 2020, 05:20:06 pm »

Stockpiling masks and other medical items is also not a foolproof strategy.
After the SARS epidemic, Ontario stockpiled 55 million N95 masks and other medical items. Recently they announced that all those stockpiled masks have passed their expiration date. You really need multiple manufacturing facilities spread geographically.
Film photographers don;t care about expiration dates.

LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #12 on: March 14, 2020, 05:20:38 pm »

Several European countries (France, Italy, Czechia, Spain) ordered closing of all shopping venues (except the food and drug stores).
The minimum recommended distance between two people has been increased from one meter to two meters.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2020, 05:28:32 pm by LesPalenik »
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LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #13 on: March 14, 2020, 05:22:28 pm »

Film photographers don;t care about expiration dates.

That would explain the low quality of the film era images. :(
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Jeremy Roussak

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #15 on: March 14, 2020, 05:39:01 pm »

Hundreds of scientists have written to the UK government urging them to introduce tougher measures to tackle the spread of Covid-19

All that demonstrates is lack of universally-agreed consensus. Numbers are not themselves sufficient. There was a famous paper a long time ago entitled "a hundred authors against Einstein": it didn't mean he was wrong.

Jeremy
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Rob C

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #16 on: March 14, 2020, 05:44:11 pm »

This is a link to Friday's show on France24.

A couple of things have changed overnight, but still an interesting perspective on recent events.

https://www.france24.com/en/20200313-coronavirus-pandemic-oil-price-war-a-world-without-sports

Rob

KLaban

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #17 on: March 14, 2020, 05:46:30 pm »

All that demonstrates is lack of universally-agreed consensus. Numbers are not themselves sufficient. There was a famous paper a long time ago entitled "a hundred authors against Einstein": it didn't mean he was wrong.

Jeremy

Jeremy, as a health professional in an earlier life what is your opinion on the UK government's approach and in particular that of herd immunity?

KLaban

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #18 on: March 14, 2020, 05:50:54 pm »

Robert Roaldi

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #19 on: March 14, 2020, 05:56:57 pm »

Stockpiling masks and other medical items is also not a foolproof strategy.
After the SARS epidemic, Ontario stockpiled 55 million N95 masks and other medical items. Recently they announced that all those stockpiled masks have passed their expiration date. You really need multiple manufacturing facilities spread geographically.



Speaking about masks - in Hongkong they found that because of so many people there wearying the masks, not only they have relatively few cases of Covid19, but also the number of influenza cases is much lower than in the previous years. So it seems that the masks are quite effective in guarding against the viruses.

I was under the impression that masks are most effective when those who are sick wear them but less effective in prevention for non-sick people. Maybe it's the case that every bit helps. There may be different kinds of masks, I know nothing about them. Osterholm, from the Rogan podcast, doesn't think much of them as a prevention tool, but he spoke about different kinds of masks so I'm not sure which ones he was talking about. If Hong Kong is experiencing fewer influenza infections, that's interesting because I thought we are in a high flu infection year. It's all speculation at the moment, we'd at least have to know the vaccine rates in different locales before determining effects on influenza infections. At least that data is easier to get and analyze than it used to be.
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