Luminous Landscape Forum
The Art of Photography => The Coffee Corner => Topic started by: armand on March 14, 2020, 12:37:20 pm
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I see the previous thread was closed, I hope we can keep this more factual.
A good map of the current status: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Works better on a larger screen
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"Scientists found regions hit hard by coronavirus share similar climate"
https://www.inkstonenews.com/science/scientists-found-regions-hit-hard-coronavirus-share-similar-climate/article/3075085?fbclid=IwAR34cWtlGK4bWNiqUdIireKw-UNvOQQGsUB187mOR6MjTPaJFFRc6whSbOY
Possibly explains the absence of Russia.
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I see the previous thread was closed, I hope we can keep this more factual.
A good map of the current status: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Works better on a larger screen
No evidence that this was actioned by the moderator: perhaps the OP?
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"Scientists found regions hit hard by coronavirus share similar climate"
https://www.inkstonenews.com/science/scientists-found-regions-hit-hard-coronavirus-share-similar-climate/article/3075085?fbclid=IwAR34cWtlGK4bWNiqUdIireKw-UNvOQQGsUB187mOR6MjTPaJFFRc6whSbOY
Possibly explains the absence of Russia.
Could be but it's a little too early to tell, the worst has yet to come in many places.
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I just listened to a good Joe Rogan podcast interview with Michael Osterholm, a specialist in infectious diseases, http://podcasts.joerogan.net/podcasts/michael-osterholm (http://podcasts.joerogan.net/podcasts/michael-osterholm).
It is an interesting wide-ranging informal discussion, not just about novel Covid-19, although there is a lot about that. It is apolitical, an on-topic statement of facts and some personal opinion about the entire area of infectious disease, a strategic overview. For example, Osterholm pointed out several years ago that 95% (or some high number) of the world’s IV bags were manufactured in one place in Puerto Rico. He questioned the wisdom of that, what if a Cat 5 hurricane hit the island? Well, it happened and there was a sudden world-wide shortage of them. He points out other failures of strategic planning to do with lack of stockpiling of some equipment. It's a widespread problem as hospitals and such adopt just-in-time inventory management, which works fine until it doesn't. Osterholm has personal experience with SARS, MERS, etc., he knows the field very well. Towards the end, there is an interesting discussion about Lyme disease and tick migration, about which I knew very little.
It is not a "heavy" scientific talk, it's very conversational, easy to listen to. Just one warning, they are both critical of anti-vaxers.
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"Scientists found regions hit hard by coronavirus share similar climate"
https://www.inkstonenews.com/science/scientists-found-regions-hit-hard-coronavirus-share-similar-climate/article/3075085?fbclid=IwAR34cWtlGK4bWNiqUdIireKw-UNvOQQGsUB187mOR6MjTPaJFFRc6whSbOY
Possibly explains the absence of Russia.
Problem is the temperature is changing due to seasons. So colder areas will have similar temperature where the disease is currently.
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Osterholm pointed out several years ago that 95% (or some high number) of the world’s IV bags were manufactured in one place in Puerto Rico. He questioned the wisdom of that, what if a Cat 5 hurricane hit the island? Well, it happened and there was a sudden world-wide shortage of them. He points out other failures of strategic planning to do with lack of stockpiling of some equipment. It's a widespread problem as hospitals and such adopt just-in-time inventory management, which works fine until it doesn't. Osterholm has personal experience with SARS, MERS, etc., he knows the field very well.
Congress put in place a tax break that has since been repealed, to encourage the development of industry in Puerto Rico. It was one of the reasons a large number of pharma and diagnostic companies located manufacturing there. Once the tax break was gone, most of the industry moved away, in some cases relocating manufacturing in China. there are stockpiles of medical equipment and drugs here in the US. Unfortunately, much of this is not useful for viral pandemics as there are not and medicines or vaccines. When I was consulting for a DOD think tank, I had information on that kind of stuff but that was probably 15 years ago and I have not kept up on it. When I was still in research at NIH, I was working on a couple of pathogenic microorganism and more looped in and even spent some time as a consultant to the old Congressional Office of Technology Assessment when they were doing a large project on Weapons of Mass Destruction and I was on the advisory panel for that project. Interesting stuff as we covered biological, chemical and nuclear weapons. Report is archived here: https://www.princeton.edu/~ota/ns20/year_f.html
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I just listened to a good Joe Rogan podcast interview with Michael Osterholm, a specialist in infectious diseases, http://podcasts.joerogan.net/podcasts/michael-osterholm (http://podcasts.joerogan.net/podcasts/michael-osterholm).
It is an interesting wide-ranging informal discussion, not just about novel Covid-19, although there is a lot about that. It is apolitical, an on-topic statement of facts and some personal opinion about the entire area of infectious disease, a strategic overview. For example, Osterholm pointed out several years ago that 95% (or some high number) of the world’s IV bags were manufactured in one place in Puerto Rico. He questioned the wisdom of that, what if a Cat 5 hurricane hit the island? Well, it happened and there was a sudden world-wide shortage of them. He points out other failures of strategic planning to do with lack of stockpiling of some equipment. It's a widespread problem as hospitals and such adopt just-in-time inventory management, which works fine until it doesn't. Osterholm has personal experience with SARS, MERS, etc., he knows the field very well. Towards the end, there is an interesting discussion about Lyme disease and tick migration, about which I knew very little.
It is not a "heavy" scientific talk, it's very conversational, easy to listen to. Just one warning, they are both critical of anti-vaxers.
I recall the iv shortage after Puerto Rico, fun stuff. Not.
Unfortunately it is not a singular case, we live from shortage to shortage, they just keep changing. Related to China there was a recent heparin shortage because they got hit with the swine flu and most of the heparin was made there on pigs.
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Could be but it's a little too early to tell, the worst has yet to come in many places.
Spain and Scotland share very few such similarities. Relatively spring-like here but not up there.
Perhaps it's the centripetal force of Earth's rotation pulls it down to a certain level.
Oh well, now and then one guess is as good as another.
Rob
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On the “single point of failure” risk when production of essential items is too concentrated, guess which country dominates production of medical face masks?
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Stockpiling masks and other medical items is also not a foolproof strategy.
After the SARS epidemic, Ontario stockpiled 55 million N95 masks and other medical items. Recently they announced that all those stockpiled masks have passed their expiration date. You really need multiple manufacturing facilities spread geographically.
(https://cdn.prod.www.spiegel.de/images/435c2819-6934-496a-8891-2e57f4ea5886_w872_r1.77_fpx60_fpy27.jpg)
Speaking about masks - in Hongkong they found that because of so many people there wearying the masks, not only they have relatively few cases of Covid19, but also the number of influenza cases is much lower than in the previous years. So it seems that the masks are quite effective in guarding against the viruses.
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Stockpiling masks and other medical items is also not a foolproof strategy.
After the SARS epidemic, Ontario stockpiled 55 million N95 masks and other medical items. Recently they announced that all those stockpiled masks have passed their expiration date. You really need multiple manufacturing facilities spread geographically.
Film photographers don;t care about expiration dates.
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Several European countries (France, Italy, Czechia, Spain) ordered closing of all shopping venues (except the food and drug stores).
The minimum recommended distance between two people has been increased from one meter to two meters.
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Film photographers don;t care about expiration dates.
That would explain the low quality of the film era images. :(
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Hundreds of scientists have written to the UK government urging them to introduce tougher measures to tackle the spread of Covid-19 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402)
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Hundreds of scientists have written to the UK government urging them to introduce tougher measures to tackle the spread of Covid-19 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402)
All that demonstrates is lack of universally-agreed consensus. Numbers are not themselves sufficient. There was a famous paper a long time ago entitled "a hundred authors against Einstein": it didn't mean he was wrong.
Jeremy
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This is a link to Friday's show on France24.
A couple of things have changed overnight, but still an interesting perspective on recent events.
https://www.france24.com/en/20200313-coronavirus-pandemic-oil-price-war-a-world-without-sports
Rob
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All that demonstrates is lack of universally-agreed consensus. Numbers are not themselves sufficient. There was a famous paper a long time ago entitled "a hundred authors against Einstein": it didn't mean he was wrong.
Jeremy
Jeremy, as a health professional in an earlier life what is your opinion on the UK government's approach and in particular that of herd immunity?
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Italians sing from their windows to boost morale (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-51886547/coronavirus-italians-sing-from-their-windows-to-boost-morale)
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Stockpiling masks and other medical items is also not a foolproof strategy.
After the SARS epidemic, Ontario stockpiled 55 million N95 masks and other medical items. Recently they announced that all those stockpiled masks have passed their expiration date. You really need multiple manufacturing facilities spread geographically.
(https://cdn.prod.www.spiegel.de/images/435c2819-6934-496a-8891-2e57f4ea5886_w872_r1.77_fpx60_fpy27.jpg)
Speaking about masks - in Hongkong they found that because of so many people there wearying the masks, not only they have relatively few cases of Covid19, but also the number of influenza cases is much lower than in the previous years. So it seems that the masks are quite effective in guarding against the viruses.
I was under the impression that masks are most effective when those who are sick wear them but less effective in prevention for non-sick people. Maybe it's the case that every bit helps. There may be different kinds of masks, I know nothing about them. Osterholm, from the Rogan podcast, doesn't think much of them as a prevention tool, but he spoke about different kinds of masks so I'm not sure which ones he was talking about. If Hong Kong is experiencing fewer influenza infections, that's interesting because I thought we are in a high flu infection year. It's all speculation at the moment, we'd at least have to know the vaccine rates in different locales before determining effects on influenza infections. At least that data is easier to get and analyze than it used to be.
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All that demonstrates is lack of universally-agreed consensus. Numbers are not themselves sufficient. There was a famous paper a long time ago entitled "a hundred authors against Einstein": it didn't mean he was wrong.
Jeremy
While consensus is tough to achieve in many fields, the difference between scientists opinions here is much less than.
I think ideally these decisions should be made by non political entities who have been trained/ have experience with this, perhaps guided by computer generated algorithms who won't be thinking about the votes they will lose/gain.
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About mask wearing in Hong King: all the multiple medical sources I’ve checked say that masks are quite effective against spreading flu and such from an infected person wearing the mask, and with COVID-19 apparently contagious for quite a while before symptoms show, I can see mask wearing as having a distinct altruistic benefit; like self-quarantine when one has risk factors like multiple hand-shakes and photo-ops with infected people.
What they also say is that masks provide very little protection for the wearer, unless they are expertly custom-fitted, as with medical professionals.
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About mask wearing in Hong King: all the multiple medical sources I’ve checked say that masks are quite effective against spreading flu and such from an infected person wearing the mask, and with COVID-19 apparently contagious for quite a while before symptoms show, I can see mask wearing as having a distinct altruistic benefit; like self-quarantine when one has risk factors like multiple hand-shakes and photo-ops with infected people.
What they also say is that masks provide very little protection for the wearer, unless they are expertly custom-fitted, as with medical professionals.
I have also heard the same this.
For the most part, wearing of mask helps doctors/nurses from having saliva or snot sneezed or coughed into their mouth and nose from a sick patient. However, the standard medical mask does not filter out pathogens. For that you would need an respirator.
Fortunately if we have a SHTF situation break out in the USA, I have a couple from working on my house.
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All that demonstrates is lack of universally-agreed consensus. Numbers are not themselves sufficient. There was a famous paper a long time ago entitled "a hundred authors against Einstein": it didn't mean he was wrong.
That might be all that it proves beyond any doubt, but a strong scientific consensus does indicate a high probability of it being right. (Arguments based on lack of certainty are usually the domain of those who desire to believe otherwise.)
The argument that “one time about a century ago a big group of scientists were wrong about a radical new idea” is very weak in the realm of evidentiary science as opposed to logical/philosophical/religious certainty.
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What they also say is that masks provide very little protection for the wearer, unless they are expertly custom-fitted, as with medical professionals.
what they forgot to say is that mask simply serves a good reminder simply not to touch your face when in public before you wash your hands
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what they forgot to say is that mask simply serves a good reminder simply not to touch your face when in public before you wash your hands
That could also be true (aside: do you have evidence that medical authorities are not saying that?)
I know the difficulties of avoiding face touching: my plan is rubbing my fingers in hot sauce.
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That could also be true (aside: do you have evidence that medical authorities are not saying that?)
I know the difficulties of avoiding face touching: my plan is rubbing my fingers in hot sauce.
Does this plan have procedures for when you have to use the bathroom? ???
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Does this plan have procedures for when you have to use the bathroom? ???
See the previous advice about careful hand-washing.
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While consensus is tough to achieve in many fields, the difference between scientists opinions here is much less than.
I think ideally these decisions should be made by non political entities who have been trained/ have experience with this, perhaps guided by computer generated algorithms who won't be thinking about the votes they will lose/gain.
You mean like Hal in 2001 A Space Odyssey?
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You mean like Hal in 2001 A Space Odyssey?
Great movie but Hal is behind times. Plus the computer can’t actually kill you but give you the support to make unpopular decisions. But you already knew that and are just trying to pull my leg.
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Great movie but Hal is behind times. Plus the computer can’t actually kill you but give you the support to make unpopular decisions. But you already knew that and are just trying to pull my leg.
The point I was making is that scientists have a one-track mind. They don;t respond to the public directly because they aren't elected. Their viewpoint is limited to science and not necessarily what the public wants or needs.
So first off, who would decide which scientists will have the final say so? It has to come from elected leaders who must have the final say-so. That's the way the world works. Would you want generals deciding whether to go to war or not? Shouldn;t elected leaders who answer to the public be making those life and death decisions? Of course, I agree that elected leaders should listen to generals and scientists. Especially their recommendations on how to fight the war. But the final decision must be by elected leaders.
PS if 2001 doesn;t work for you, how about Dr. Strangelove? :)
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The first person with the virus in my township in New Jersey was discovered today. He was sent home to self-quarantine. I guess the virus is working is way down from NYC. My wife and I cancelled our dinner out with friends and we all ate at home together. I went out to pick up Italian food to bring home. The homeowners association shutdown the clubhouse in my 55+ community which makes a lot of sense since most of us are old and have secondary medical issues that make getting the disease more dangerous for us. No poker this week. Our newly hired tax preparer cancelled his appointment today with us. He said his daughter didn't want him to go out. People have cleaned out all the toilet paper and water from Costco's nearby. Maybe they got diarrhea and are especially thirsty although tap water is pretty good around here. Supermarket shelves are emptying out. People are nuts.
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In Ontario, 24 new Covid-19 cases were reported today. Many Community centres canceled all their events till April 5. Dances, workshops, classes, card games. Big question is whether the closings will extend beyond that date. No line-ups in the bank and the medical lab. Long line-ups in the supermarkets.
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In Ontario, 24 new Covid-19 cases were reported today. Many Community centres canceled all their events till April 5. Dances, workshops, classes, card games. Big question is whether the closings will extend beyond that date. No line-ups in the bank and the medical lab. Long line-ups in the supermarkets.
A lot depends on how much economic pain people can take.
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The point I was making is that scientists have a one-track mind. They don;t respond to the public directly because they aren't elected. Their viewpoint is limited to science and not necessarily what the public wants or needs.
...
PS if 2001 doesn;t work for you, how about Dr. Strangelove? :)
Speaking as a scientist, that is an obnoxious, ignorant, derogatory stereotype (which you support repeatedly with _fictional_ villains!) In the current situation it looks to me that medical scientists like Anthony Fauci of the CDC care far more about what people want or need than some political leaders.
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New cruise offer
(https://i.imgflip.com/3s0ups.jpg)
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* deleted
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Jeremy, as a health professional in an earlier life what is your opinion on the UK government's approach and in particular that of herd immunity?
I wouldn't presume to use medical knowledge that is the best part of 30 years out of date, Keith. I see the logic behind the argument, but whether it's a better approach than that adopted by other countries is a far wider question.
What are being reported as the current provisional plans to prohibit large gatherings of people seem to me to be sensible: one must always plan for the worst. The rationale, however, appears not to be that more people become infected in such gatherings, as people who are already infected are unlikely to pass it to those not in their immediate vicinity and those who acquire it at the gathering do not themselves become infectious for some days. Rather, it is aimed at avoiding the stress on public services caused by the need to police such gatherings.
There is no sensible rationale, it seems to me, behind closing schools: the young appear, oddly enough, not to be severely affected by the virus and the need for thousands of parents to absent themselves from work - including work in the NHS, the police and so on - to be with children who are not at school would have potentially catastrophic consequences.
The aim seems to be to flatten the infection curve, not so that fewer people become infected but so that they become infected over a longer period, placing less acute strain on health services. Is that sensible? I've no idea; but it's clear that the question goes beyond simple health and strays into the realm of economics.
FWIW, I have never seen the wearing of masks by the uninfected to be other than fatuous. They aren't designed to protect the wearer, and they don't.
Italians sing from their windows to boost morale (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-51886547/coronavirus-italians-sing-from-their-windows-to-boost-morale)
The morale of the singers, perhaps; I've heard it on the radio and it certainly did nothing for mine.
That might be all that it proves beyond any doubt, but a strong scientific consensus does indicate a high probability of it being right. (Arguments based on lack of certainty are usually the domain of those who desire to believe otherwise.)
The argument that “one time about a century ago a big group of scientists were wrong about a radical new idea” is very weak in the realm of evidentiary science as opposed to logical/philosophical/religious certainty.
The existence of a strong consensus would indicate that it's likely to be correct; but I've seen no evidence that such a consensus does in fact exist, and that letter certainly doesn't prove it. I wasn't referring to the Einstein nonsense as evidence that this group was wrong, merely as evidence that numbers don't equal correctness.
Jeremy
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Here are some simulation of strategies: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
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Stockpiling masks and other medical items is also not a foolproof strategy.
After the SARS epidemic, Ontario stockpiled 55 million N95 masks and other medical items. Recently they announced that all those stockpiled masks have passed their expiration date. You really need multiple manufacturing facilities spread geographically.
(https://cdn.prod.www.spiegel.de/images/435c2819-6934-496a-8891-2e57f4ea5886_w872_r1.77_fpx60_fpy27.jpg)
Speaking about masks - in Hongkong they found that because of so many people there wearying the masks, not only they have relatively few cases of Covid19, but also the number of influenza cases is much lower than in the previous years. So it seems that the masks are quite effective in guarding against the viruses.
Muslim ladies have known all that for centuries. Unfortunately, masks are no alternative to Durex.
;-)
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There is little that is certain and it's currently assumed that once ambient temperatures rise above 26C (80F), the virus will begin to dissipate. It's a bold assumption and not a given. What is safe(r) to assume though is that areas of high humidity provide the environment that allows the virus to fester..
If that is indeed so, it raises the question as to whether the virus can be transmitted via mosquito, as is the case with Dengue (https://www.cdc.gov/dengue/) and the West Nile Virus (https://www.cdc.gov/westnile/index.html)
If so, obviously, added high risk in an ongoing pandemic.
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After lunch, yesterday, I walked to the supermarket to see what was cooking and whether I could think of anything I needed in case I get isolated more than usual. Looking at the pasta shelves, there was lot's of every kind of pasta except spaghetti, of which there was none! Now that must be a good sign of what sells here or not. I didn't check out the toilet rolls, but as most loos here have bidets, I don't see the need for any emergency buying of that product for Europeans. Maybe non-Europeans will wash their feet more often if they have one. ;-)
Strange times.
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There is little that is certain and it's currently assumed that once ambient temperatures rise above 26C (80F), the virus will begin to dissipate. It's a bold assumption and not a given. What is safe(r) to assume though is that areas of high humidity provide the environment that allows the virus to fester..
If that is indeed so, it raises the question as to whether the virus can be transmitted via mosquito, as is the case with Dengue (https://www.cdc.gov/dengue/) and the West Nile Virus (https://www.cdc.gov/westnile/index.html)
If so, obviously, added high risk in an ongoing pandemic.
Thank you for making an island guy feel more secure!
;-)
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Thank you for making an island guy feel more secure!
You and me, both.
Forewarned is forearmed, and IIRC, you're not in the highest risk gouping (I am). Latest advice that needs to be heeded: stay away from Nurofen (Ibuprofen), all NSAIDs, if you can - they weaken your immune sytem and stick to Paracetamol.
If the mosquito risk turns out to be real, come back and I'll give you my 'recipe' for MMEAMFT (my most effective anti mosquito flame thrower) ...
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There is little that is certain and it's currently assumed that once ambient temperatures rise above 26C (80F), the virus will begin to dissipate. It's a bold assumption and not a given. What is safe(r) to assume though is that areas of high humidity provide the environment that allows the virus to fester..
Although many "warm" countries are reporting relatively low infection counts, I'm not sure about the virus getting killed at high temperatures.
How about all the infections combined in various African countries, Australia, India, Israel, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Panama, etc?
OTOH, Russia which is relatively cold, reported so far just a small number of infections.
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/9E87/production/_111238504_us_restrictions_12mar_640_3x-nc.png)
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It seems as though the UK government is considering introducing home isolation for the over 70s for a period of four months!
*^~#!!!
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It seems as though the UK government is considering introducing home isolation for the over 70s for a period of four months!
That could ruin the fun for the entire summer.
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It seems as though the UK government is considering introducing home isolation for the over 70s for a period of four months!
Look on the bright side , Keith.
UKGOV have just worked out that they'll need additional ventilators (currently 5,000 total in the UK - SKY news this morning), hard on the heels of a blanket ban on mass gatherings - thanks entirely and solely to the intervention of the relevant sporting authorities. Today, they're now talking about no gathering of more than a 100 people. They should change the 'getting it done' refrain to 'ahead of the curve' :)
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Although many "warm" countries are reporting relatively low infection counts, I'm not sure about the virus getting killed at high temperatures. How about all the infections combined in various African countries, Australia, India, Israel, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Panama, etc?
Which is the point I made in my post.
It's a bold assumption and not a given. What is safe(r) to assume though is that areas of high humidity provide the environment that allows the virus to fester..
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On Friday, Trump said 5 million coronavirus tests would be available within a month.
At the current growth rate of the virus (doubling every 3 days in USA), by that time the number of infections could reach 3 millions. Then, in the next 3 days, the infection count would double to 6 millions.
3K, 6K, 12K, 24K, 48K, 96K, 192K, 384K, 768K, 1.536M, 3.072M
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What is safe(r) to assume though is that areas of high humidity provide the environment that allows the virus to fester.
A lot is not yet known, but it does seem that the virus spreads via moisture droplets, and not by adhering to other aerosols. If so, then drier air will reduce the distance it travels. An unknown is how long the virus survives outside of a host, on surfaces. Some think that up to 2-3 days survival (which is longer than I thought) is possible, so washing one's hands remains good advice.
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See the previous advice about careful hand-washing.
So wash before and after.
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Although many "warm" countries are reporting relatively low infection counts, I'm not sure about the virus getting killed at high temperatures.
How about all the infections combined in various African countries, Australia, India, Israel, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Panama, etc?
OTOH, Russia which is relatively cold, reported so far just a small number of infections.
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/9E87/production/_111238504_us_restrictions_12mar_640_3x-nc.png)
I think this map maybe a little outdated.
On a Habanos forum I belong to, I have read their are confirmed cases in Cuba now.
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Latest advice that needs to be heeded: stay away from Nurofen (Ibuprofen), all NSAIDs, if you can - they weaken your immune sytem and stick to Paracetamol.
Where do you see that ? I have never heard that.
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The UK is seemingly going out on a limb, taking a different path to the rest of the world.
Gone is the testing for all suspected cases, - you'll only be tested if you are seriously ill in hospital - they now feel the best course to take is achieving herd immunity, basically allowing 80% of the population to succumb to Covid 19 whilst "protecting" those most at risk. This approach is being challenged by many as taking unnecessary risks with the UK population, especially those at increased risk.
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Speaking as a scientist, that is an obnoxious, ignorant, derogatory stereotype (which you support repeatedly with _fictional_ villains!) In the current situation it looks to me that medical scientists like Anthony Fauci of the CDC care far more about what people want or need than some political leaders.
+1
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There is no sensible rationale, it seems to me, behind closing schools: the young appear, oddly enough, not to be severely affected by the virus and the need for thousands of parents to absent themselves from work - including work in the NHS, the police and so on - to be with children who are not at school would have potentially catastrophic consequences.
In that Rogan podcast, Osterholm made this point more emphatically. He had a statistic at hand about how many nurses had school-age children in the US; it was a lot. If their kids had to stay home, that could put a lot of stress on the system since those nurses are needed at work more than ever. And in jurisdictions with non-generous leave policies, it would just add pressure to everyone's lives, the nurses and their patients.
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Where do you see that ? I have never heard that.
Several sources, here's one:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/anti-inflammatory-drugs-may-aggravate-coronavirus-infection
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The UK is seemingly going out on a limb, taking a different path to the rest of the world.
Gone is the testing for all suspected cases, - you'll only be tested if you are seriously ill in hospital - they now feel the best course to take is achieving herd immunity, basically allowing 80% of the population to succumb to Covid 19 whilst "protecting" those most at risk. This approach is being challenged by many as taking unnecessary risks with the UK population, especially those at increased risk.
Hi Keith,
And the percentage of infected to deaths will increase? If only the seriously ill get a test....Or am I not reading this correctly?
Peter
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Hi Keith,
And the percentage of infected to deaths will increase? If only the seriously ill get a test....Or am I not reading this correctly?
Peter
Peter, I would have thought so, but I am admittedly totally unqualified to make that judgement.
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I think this map maybe a little outdated.
On a Habanos forum I belong to, I have read their are confirmed cases in Cuba now.
The map is there only to show that the virus is now also in the countries with temperatures over 26C.
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There is little that is certain and it's currently assumed that once ambient temperatures rise above 26C (80F), the virus will begin to dissipate. It's a bold assumption and not a given. What is safe(r) to assume though is that areas of high humidity provide the environment that allows the virus to fester..
If that is indeed so, it raises the question as to whether the virus can be transmitted via mosquito, as is the case with Dengue (https://www.cdc.gov/dengue/) and the West Nile Virus (https://www.cdc.gov/westnile/index.html)
If so, obviously, added high risk in an ongoing pandemic.
I'm going to confine all my comments on this thread to the technical side. Here is the best paper we have on aerosol and surface stability of COVID-19: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v1.full.pdf It is not clear whether warmer months will reduce the environmental stability of the virus though increased sunlight and UV radiation will help. It's highly doubtful that the virus can be transmitted by mosquitos as this is a mammalian and not an arbovirus. I'm reasonably confident that this is one thing you don't need to worry about.
I've been doing a lot of reading up on what the biopharma industry (my former employer) is doing to counter the pandemic. Perhaps the best ongoing discussion comes at Derek Lowe's website: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/ He's a drug discovery researcher in the pharma industry. I pretty much agree with him that there will not be a short term solution in terms of a drug to halt the pandemic. There are a few number of drugs in trials right now and Gilead's remdesivir, that was a putative Ebola drug, is in trials in the US and China (my understanding is this drug needs to be infused). Because it was examined during the Ebola outbreak a lot of testing has already been done. the big problem is it is a complicated drug to manufacture at scale. A second drug, camostat, is thought to work by preventing entry of the virus into cells; I think there may be a trial underway in China (this drug is approved in Japan so there may be good data regarding safety that could support quick approval). As Lowe states, that's about it. It's going to be a hard slog to screen lots of drugs and coming up with novel new approaches is a multi-year project.
One company represented at President Trump's round table two weeks ago, Regeneron, is working on a monoclonal antibody against COVID and stated they could make this at scale in a couple of months. This would be used in hospital settings for therapy. This is probably the best solution at hand and it's important to get this into the clinic ASAP.
The best approach is obviously a vaccine. There are several new approaches to quickly generating vaccine candidates based on RNA and DNA platforms. Unfortunately, these technologies have not been tested in humans. IMO, the one major failing of research agencies it was not funding preliminary trials of these platforms to look at safety and whether they were able to generate antibodies. This type of research could have been done in small trials to assess whether they really work as promised. We will start to see some early human trials in the next two months on several new vaccine candidates but this will not help resolve the current pandemic.
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We now have 51 cases in South Africa. It’s cooling down as we head into autumn and right now it’s 26 C. I’m in Johannesburg at about 1700m above sea level so we aren’t the warmest part of the country. Most of the country is semi arid or arid although it is the wet time of the year. We had some rain last Friday.
So for what it’s worth. Dry and warm and cases growing at about 20% a day for the last little while. I suppose we can expect it to get worse as it gets colder. We rarely see below freezing in winter but it gets cold. Perhaps the dryness will help. We get no rain for months and months over winter period.
Haven’t noticed any panic. Shops full of people and goods. People are talking about it but mostly just jokes for now. I’m disappointed the rugby season has been shut down.
My concession to stockpiling was to buy 4kg of coffee beans from the DRC and Ethiopia. We will see.
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Latest advice that needs to be heeded: stay away from Nurofen (Ibuprofen), all NSAIDs, if you can - they weaken your immune sytem and stick to Paracetamol.
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One of the body's natural responses to viral infections is fever. Fever helps induce the immune system to get going and this results in a slowing down of viral reproduction in the body. NSAIDS work to inhibit some of the pathways that are part of the fever process and can lower fever. Paracetamol (Tylenol in the US) does not do this. It can help reduce aches from a viral infection but does not work to inhibit the protaglandin pathway as NSAIDS do. My internist's advice was let the fever run its course without intervention if possible. Of course if you are running a high fever, medical attention is warranted.
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On Friday, Trump said 5 million coronavirus tests would be available within a month.
At the current growth rate of the virus (doubling every 3 days in USA), by that time the number of infections could reach 3 millions. Then, in the next 3 days, the infection count would double to 6 millions.
3K, 6K, 12K, 24K, 48K, 96K, 192K, 384K, 768K, 1,536M, 3,072M
IMHO, testing is most effective when trying to contain the virus ("containment phase"). That needs to be done as soon as possible, and that moment seems to have passed when people develop the symptoms without being able to establish the track of individuals that led to that infection. Next comes the "mitigation phase", and then it becomes less relevant to follow the track of infection, if even possible. The tests are mainly needed to test the individuals with severe symptoms, to make sure which curative actions to follow. Those with mild symptoms will recover, whether they have a common flue or Covid-19, regardless of the diagnosis.
And let's face it, 50-60% of the population is likely to contract the virus over time, so it's important to slow down the spread to avoid unnecessary logistical pressure on hospital Intensive Care capacity which is not equipped for treating only Covid-19 patients. There are other patients, e.g. after an operation, who need IC-care as well.
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"Told you so"s are annoying are not immediately helpful, but it doesn't hurt to hear one now and then if only to keep the ideas front and centre. This is a TED talk by Bill Gates, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI&feature=youtu.be (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI&feature=youtu.be) from 2015 about how we weren't preparing well enough for the next pandemic.
One thing that Osterholm brought up in that Rogan podcast I mentioned earlier in the thread was how we fail to follow through when the pressure is off. I now forget which virus vaccine he used as an example (Zika maybe?) but he stated that vaccine development for it has diminished greatly because the disease fell out of the headlines. It is difficult to maintain momentum in a research area when everyone around you, including funding agencies, believe that the problem is gone, but the trouble is that the problem can easily come back. We're not good at long-term funding in some areas. This is odd because we're not bad at in the military arena; we don't start to build aircraft carriers the day AFTER war breaks out, better to build them first and have them ready. So it's not as if we don't know how to do long term. We just make the choice not to. Incentives don't seem to align with what we really need.
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Several sources, here's one:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/anti-inflammatory-drugs-may-aggravate-coronavirus-infection
Ok, thanks, knew about the fever reduction issue and was thinking there might be some other issue at work. I take naproxen sodium for pinched nerves, but i should be able to tolerate not using it for a week if need be. Fever delirium has its uses ;) .
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UKGOV have just worked out that they'll need additional ventilators (currently 5,000 total in the UK - SKY news this morning), hard on the heels of a blanket ban on mass gatherings - thanks entirely and solely to the intervention of the relevant sporting authorities. Today, they're now talking about no gathering of more than a 100 people. They should change the 'getting it done' refrain to 'ahead of the curve' :)
There is no blanket ban on mass gatherings, seemingly for the reasons I explained above. I'm not sure who the "they" talking about no gatherings of more than 100, to which you refer, might be.
It's easy to fall into false analysis: "something must be done; this is something; therefore we must do it". Governments, provoked by the press, do it time after time. Happily, it seems not to be happening in the UK on this occasion.
Gone is the testing for all suspected cases, - you'll only be tested if you are seriously ill in hospital - they now feel the best course to take is achieving herd immunity, basically allowing 80% of the population to succumb to Covid 19 whilst "protecting" those most at risk. This approach is being challenged by many as taking unnecessary risks with the UK population, especially those at increased risk.
The rationale behind not testing all suspected cases is that to be tested, the possibly infected person has to go to the tester, thus potentially spreading the disease. Since treatment is supportive, testing is indicated for epidemiological, not therapeutic, reasons; it doesn't benefit the individual.
And the percentage of infected to deaths will increase? If only the seriously ill get a test....Or am I not reading this correctly?
Yes, inevitably. Those with mild symptoms will not be diagnosed as having coronavirus.
And let's face it, 50-60% of the population is likely to contract the virus over time, so it's important to slow down the spread to avoid unnecessary logistical pressure on hospital Intensive Care capacity which is not equipped for treating only Covid-19 patients. There are other patients, e.g. after an operation, who need IC-care as well.
I'm not sure where you get the 50-60% figure from, but slowing spread is the theme behind the UK government's stepped response.
Jeremy
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The Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/the-tale-of-a-nile-cruise-that-spawned-an-international-coronavirus-outbreak/2020/03/13/6ab633fc-6314-11ea-8a8e-5c5336b32760_story.html) has a very interesting story about how a single infected person on a Nile River cruise ship led to lots of infections. Several of those live in our Maryland county and traveled widely before they came down with COVID.
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New cruise offer
(https://i.imgflip.com/3s0ups.jpg)
That reminds me of the joke of the old time comedian W.C. Fields. He really hated Philadelphia and thought it was a disgusting place to live. So he would quip, "They had a contest. First prize was a free stay in Philadelphia for one week. Second prize was two weeks."
His other joke about Philly was when he said his epitaph should read, "I'd Rather Be Here than in Philadelphia."
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My apologies to my Philadelphia friends. Actually Philly is a nice place - to visit. It's less than 2 hours from me. :)
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One thing that Osterholm brought up in that Rogan podcast I mentioned earlier in the thread was how we fail to follow through when the pressure is off. I now forget which virus vaccine he used as an example (Zika maybe?) but he stated that vaccine development for it has diminished greatly because the disease fell out of the headlines. It is difficult to maintain momentum in a research area when everyone around you, including funding agencies, believe that the problem is gone, but the trouble is that the problem can easily come back.
Osterholm's comments are not entirely correct. The US Dept of Defense has had a robust research program into vaccines and other treatments for a long time. Some of the vaccines that will be going into testing came from DOD funded research. As I said in my earlier post, it was the early stage human trials where data is needed. HERE (https://www.mayoclinicproceedings.org/article/S0025-6196(19)30483-5/fulltext#sec4) is a good article on Zika vaccine development and you can see how much work has been done. I don't know if the results from trials are available. Look at table 2; some of the companies listed have already announced that they have COVID-19 candidate vaccines. There are lots of partnerships being formed right now to see how fast things can be developed.
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One of the body's natural responses to viral infections is fever. Fever helps induce the immune system to get going and this results in a slowing down of viral reproduction in the body. NSAIDS work to inhibit some of the pathways that are part of the fever process and can lower fever. Paracetamol (Tylenol in the US) does not do this. It can help reduce aches from a viral infection but does not work to inhibit the protaglandin pathway as NSAIDS do. My internist's advice was let the fever run its course without intervention if possible. Of course if you are running a high fever, medical attention is warranted.
Then why do we always try to get down the temperature if fever kills viruses? Also, doesn;t Tylenol had bad effects on the kidney?
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Then why do we always try to get down the temperature if fever kills viruses? Also, doesn;t Tylenol had bad effects on the kidney?
Tylenol is toxic to the liver in high doses. It's a very problematic drug. I cannot answer your first question; only that I try to let fevers run their course. I get the flu vaccine every year and haven't had seasonal flu in a lot of years.
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Then why do we always try to get down the temperature if fever kills viruses?...
That's just our, human, overreaction to symptoms. I observed that rule for me and my daughter, i.e., not to immediately try to lower the temperature, unless it gets critically high.
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I'm not sure where you get the 50-60% figure from, but slowing spread is the theme behind the UK government's stepped response.
It comes from several sources, including the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM):
It led to shock reactions, the statement of Chancellor Angela Merkel this week that up to 70 percent of the German population will be infected with the coronavirus. But the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) is also taking into account that half of the Dutch population will receive Covid-19 in the coming years, says director of infectious disease control Jaap van Dissel. "That won't happen in a few months, but we're now in a global pandemic. The virus will stay with us, we will have to go through this as a society."
Van Dissel bases his estimate on the so-called international 'reproduction number', the figure that indicates how many people on average become infected by one sick person. This currently fluctuates between 1.5 and 2. If you cross that line, 50 to 60 percent of the Dutch get the virus. That doesn't have to be a disaster, says Van Dissel. "Most people get mild symptoms." However, the RIVM does want to prevent a peak of infections and too much pressure on care by slowing down the spread of the virus. That is the goal of the policy from now on. "Can we spread the wave of infections in such a way that we can continue to provide care to vulnerable patients who need it most?"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
We're passed the point of prevention, we need to manage the spread, flatten the curve.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/transcoded/f/f4/COVID19_in_numbers-_R0%2C_the_case_fatality_rate_and_why_we_need_to_flatten_the_curve.webm/COVID19_in_numbers-_R0%2C_the_case_fatality_rate_and_why_we_need_to_flatten_the_curve.webm.480p.vp9.webm
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The "doubling" rate for Covid-19 infection cases varies greatly from one country to another.
For example, 33 days in China, 13 days in South Korea, 7 days in Iran, 5 days in Italy, 3 days in Germany, USA, and a few other countries. 27 days globally.
Why are there such huge differences? Is the growth rate accelerating?
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
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Osterholm's comments are not entirely correct. The US Dept of Defense has had a robust research program into vaccines and other treatments for a long time. Some of the vaccines that will be going into testing came from DOD funded research. As I said in my earlier post, it was the early stage human trials where data is needed. HERE (https://www.mayoclinicproceedings.org/article/S0025-6196(19)30483-5/fulltext#sec4) is a good article on Zika vaccine development and you can see how much work has been done. I don't know if the results from trials are available. Look at table 2; some of the companies listed have already announced that they have COVID-19 candidate vaccines. There are lots of partnerships being formed right now to see how fast things can be developed.
Good news.
I might listen to parts of that podcast again, it could have been something else, not Zika. I was in the car at the time.
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The "doubling" rate for Covid-19 infection cases varies greatly from one country to another.
For example, 33 days in China, 13 days in South Korea, 7 days in Iran, 5 days in Italy, 3 days in Germany, USA, and a few other countries. 27 days globally.
Why are there such huge differences? Is the growth rate accelerating?
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
When you don't test, you don't know. People dying most likely get chalked up to the seasonal flu. What better way for a country to look good...don't test and don't know.
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When you don't test, you don't know. People dying most likely get chalked up to the seasonal flu. What better way for a country to look good...don't test and don't know.
Enough of politics already.
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Enough of politics already.
Which part in chez post was political? "Dying", "Not knowing", "seasonal", "good looking"?
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Which part in chez post was political? "Dying", "Not knowing", "seasonal", "good looking"?
His post was a back-handed political attack on Trump. If I'm wrong, let him defend himself.
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The toilet paper rush at Costco's.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1238215769445388288
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Osterholm's comments are not entirely correct. The US Dept of Defense has had a robust research program into vaccines and other treatments for a long time. Some of the vaccines that will be going into testing came from DOD funded research. As I said in my earlier post, it was the early stage human trials where data is needed. HERE (https://www.mayoclinicproceedings.org/article/S0025-6196(19)30483-5/fulltext#sec4) is a good article on Zika vaccine development and you can see how much work has been done. I don't know if the results from trials are available. Look at table 2; some of the companies listed have already announced that they have COVID-19 candidate vaccines. There are lots of partnerships being formed right now to see how fast things can be developed.
Curious about isolation research. So we're all locking ourselves away from catching it and spreading it. But will that matter? SO it slows down a little. Then we all come out of hiding and the one or two who still carry it start the spread all over again. So what do we do? Go into hiding again? Shutdown the world and the economies of all countries? Wouldn't it be better to just let it play out so it's over with in two months and then get on with our lives.
If the disease has to go through all the people, won't it anyway regardless of the isolation measures? I wonder if there's any research on this idea?
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Curious about isolation research. So we're all locking ourselves away from catching it and spreading it. But will that matter? SO it slows down a little. Then we all come out of hiding and the one or two who still carry it start the spread all over again. So what do we do? Go into hiding again? Shutdown the world and the economies of all countries? Wouldn't it be better to just let it play out so it's over with in two months and then get on with our lives.
If the disease has to go through all the people, won't it anyway regardless of the isolation measures? I wonder if there's any research on this idea?
It does matter, and a lot. We have finite (if slowly increasing) hospital facilities. The reason for isolation is not really to prevent people from getting it, but to spread (lower) the peak of the disease. If the peak is at X, and hospital facilities are at X, then we are in a condition to handle the disease, though some people may still die. If the hospitals are at X, and the disease is a 3X or 4X, then a lot of people won't get needed treatment and many more will die. There's an interesting inter-active graph that was published by the NY Times showing the effects of early and later intervention on how the peak of the disease might be lowered.
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Here is a link to a whole set of informational graphs on the spread of the disease.
https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/
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What are being reported as the current provisional plans to prohibit large gatherings of people seem to me to be sensible: one must always plan for the worst. The rationale, however, appears not to be that more people become infected in such gatherings, as people who are already infected are unlikely to pass it to those not in their immediate vicinity and those who acquire it at the gathering do not themselves become infectious for some days. Rather, it is aimed at avoiding the stress on public services caused by the need to police such gatherings.
Rather than size, it seems that density is the risk factor (amount of time spent within "coughing distance" of multiple other people), but the two go together somewhat, so maybe "number of people" is being used as a proxy for "density".
There is no sensible rationale, it seems to me, behind closing schools: the young appear, oddly enough, not to be severely affected by the virus and the need for thousands of parents to absent themselves from work - including work in the NHS, the police and so on - to be with children who are not at school would have potentially catastrophic consequences.
There are definitely trade-offs to be assessed. Children still do get infected and become carriers to family members, teachers, etc., and it is very hard do maintain adequate "social distance" in a school environment. On the other hand many children out of school are likely to spend more time with (at higher risk) grand-parents — particularly as caregivers when parents must still work.
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It does matter, and a lot. We have finite (if slowly increasing) hospital facilities. The reason for isolation is not really to prevent people from getting it, but to spread (lower) the peak of the disease. If the peak is at X, and hospital facilities are at X, then we are in a condition to handle the disease, though some people may still die. If the hospitals are at X, and the disease is a 3X or 4X, then a lot of people won't get needed treatment and many more will die. There's an interesting inter-active graph that was published by the NY Times showing the effects of early and later intervention on how the peak of the disease might be lowered.
But there are other factors to be considered. BJL mentions a couple in the last post regarding children as carriers. There's too much we don't know. So we're guessing at what seems to be the best approach. But we really don't know and won't know until it's all over and look back. Who for example really knows if the stock market is at a bottom or will do another big dump? Scientists aren't infallible anymore than economists are.
Let's take my example. So by hiding we don;t expose a large percentage of the population. Then we all go back to work and the couple who still carry re-infect the populace. So are we going to shut down the world again?
Regarding hospital facilities, the one guy who got it in my township was sent home to self-quarantine. What care is really needed for people who get sick? Do we know? Could they be placed in temporary wards set up just for that purpose. What did the Chinese do? They seem to have a handle on it. What about the damage to society by extended and possible repeated isolations and shutdown of the economy? My wife and I were to go out to eat but cancelled. The waitress missed on a a nice tip, money to feed her kids. What about that damage? As an older person who has diabetes and other issues, I'm one who can really have survivability problems. So I'm not taking this lightly. I've cancelled all doctor and other appointments with everyone. Good time for contemplative isolated photography outdoors. The weather's getting nice around here.
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Curious about isolation research. So we're all locking ourselves away from catching it and spreading it. But will that matter? SO it slows down a little. ...
If the disease has to go through all the people, won't it anyway regardless of the isolation measures? I wonder if there's any research on this idea?
Slowing down the spread, as in the slogan "flatten the curve", is a core strategy now that containment has largely failed: spreading the case load over a longer time period so that at any given time the demand for intensive care beds and respirators does not exceed capacity, or does not exceed it by as much. Italy is already hitting capacity limits and having to send other patients (including for example chemotherapy patients) home more quickly than is preferred.
P. S. I expect that in a year or a bit more, most of us will have either had COVID-19 and recovered, or will receive a vaccination. (Dare I speculate on how anti-vax science-denialists will react when faced by a 1%–4% death rate?)
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Here in The netherlands - everything gathering people that is not vital gets closed.
Just now i was sitting in a bar and the news told me all bars had to be closed at 6PM till the 6th of april-
So I took the last beer.
However, The virus is here and i do not think it can be contained anymore- but it can be delayed; we may hope for a working vaccin.
That said i read about some Dutch scientists that say they have an antibody for the virus and i came across this article:
https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/lure-german-firm-working-virus-vaccine-report-200315165703635.html
Berlin is trying to stop Washington from persuading a German company seeking a coronavirus vaccine to move its research to the United States, prompting German politicians to insist no country should have a monopoly on any future vaccine.
German government sources told Reuters news agency on Sunday that the US administration was looking into how it could gain access to a potential vaccine being developed by a German firm, CureVac.
If it is true it is a bad form of America First.
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Here's another interesting set of graphics on how lowering the peak works.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?itid=hp_hp-top-table-main_virus-simulator520pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans
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Slowing down the spread, as in the slogan "flatten the curve", is a core strategy now that containment has largely failed: spreading the case load over a longer time period so that at any given time the demand for intensive care beds and respirators does not exceed capacity, or does not exceed it by as much. Italy is already hitting capacity limits and having to send other patients (including for example chemotherapy patients) home more quickly than is preferred.
P. S. I expect that in a year or a bit more, most of us will have either had COVID-19 and recovered, or will receive a vaccination. (Dare I speculate on how anti-vax science-denialists will react when faced by a 1%–4% death rate?)
That's exactly right...the isolation is not to prevent people from getting the virus...it's to prevent people from getting the virus all at once and flooding our ability to support the one's that are in serious shape.
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Slowing down the spread, as in the slogan "flatten the curve", is a core strategy now that containment has largely failed: spreading the case load over a longer time period so that at any given time the demand for intensive care beds and respirators does not exceed capacity, or does not exceed it by as much. Italy is already hitting capacity limits and having to send other patients (including for example chemotherapy patients) home more quickly than is preferred.
P. S. I expect that in a year or a bit more, most of us will have either had COVID-19 and recovered, or will receive a vaccination. (Dare I speculate on how anti-vax science-denialists will react when faced by a 1%–4% death rate?)
I don't take the flu shot any more as I feel I got it a few years ago right after I took it. The shot was 40% effective last year. A half a million people died from flu in the world last year, 50,000 in the US. Even if they develop a vaccine, we don't know how effective it will be. Covid might turn out less deadly than the regular flu. There's just too many unknowns at this time. It's all speculation. ???
What does spreading out the infection rate mean? Do we shut down the world for one week, two weeks, or 6 months? Frankly, I'm afraid these are all just feel-good measures. It's like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're going to get until you get it.
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Lots of data and analysis here, such as on the importance of social isolation. (I think it is trustworthy, though I prefer more clearly authoritative sources like the CDC or secondary sources with thorough citation of such.)
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Chart 18 says that about 14% of cases need hospitalization and almost 5% need intensive care. With the estimate that about half or more of us will eventually be infected, this suggests 5–10 million intensive care cases total, and I am then guessing on the order of a million needing respirators. We can only handle a small fraction of that many at one time.
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I don't take the flu shot any more as I feel I got it a few years ago right after I took it. The shot was 40% effective last year. A half a million people died from flu in the world last year, 50,000 in the US. Even if they develop a vaccine, we don't know how effective it will be. Covid might turn out less deadly than the regular flu. There's just too many unknowns at this time. It's all speculation. ???
What does spreading out the infection rate mean? Do we shut down the world for one week, two weeks, or 6 months? Frankly, I'm afraid these are all just feel-good measures. It's like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're going to get until you get it.
There are actual mathematical models that show the effect of spreading out the infections and their affects on a limited system. It's not hocus pocus but actually has some math behind it... I listened to a program the other day on the CBC which had a modelling specialist and it was very eye opening how much affect delaying getting infected has on the outcome.
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Here's another interesting set of graphics on how lowering the peak works.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?itid=hp_hp-top-table-main_virus-simulator520pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans
That's interesting graphic John. The problem as I see it is how long do you shut down society to extend the rate of infections so you can handle cases? Even in there graph where China isolated groups, some infection gets out to the rest of the population. So it's going to spread no matter what. Will shutting down society for 6 months be acceptable?
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There are actual mathematical models that show the effect of spreading out the infections and their affects on a limited system. It's not hocus pocus but actually has some math behind it... I listened to a program the other day on the CBC which had a modelling specialist and it was very eye opening how much affect delaying getting infected has on the outcome.
I'm not doubting your point. The questions are how long do we have to shut down society and is the time frame realistic and acceptable?
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Covid might turn out less deadly than the regular flu.
There is plenty of evidence available that COVID-19 is far deadlier than the typical seasonal flu! By a factor of 10 to 30, as you should be able to find in some of the medical sources shared in this thread. For example, see the first graph in https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/03/a-covid-19-coronavirus-update-from-concerned-physicians.html which has it broken down by age group.
Factor in the lack of a vaccine for now (expected in one to two years?) so that there will likely be more infections this year than in a flu season, and it is almost certainly going to cause a far higher death toll over the next year or so, before settling in as a "community disease" that we can manage reasonably well.
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The problem as I see it is how long do you shut down society to extend the rate of infections so you can handle cases? Even in there graph where China isolated groups, some infection gets out to the rest of the population. So it's going to spread no matter what. Will shutting down society for 6 months be acceptable?
That is an important question indeed. Evidence from places like Hubei province in China (the one where Wuhan is, with the provincial population about as big as Italy) suggests that two to four weeks could be enough: it seems to be quite well controlled there by now, and stuff is reopening. Cynically, forcing everyone to take their annual vacation at the right time (as a boring "staycation") might be enough!
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There is plenty of evidence available that COVID-19 is far deadlier than the typical seasonal flu! By a factor of 10 to 30, as you should be able to find in some of the medical sources shared in this thread. For example, see the first graph in https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/03/a-covid-19-coronavirus-update-from-concerned-physicians.html which has it broken down by age group.
Factor in the lack of a vaccine for now (expected in one to two years?) so that there will likely be more infections this year than in a flu season, and it is almost certainly going to cause a far higher death toll over the next year or so, before settling in as a "community disease" that we can manage reasonably well.
If I'm reading the article correctly, it will take 3 months for the virus to spread through the entire US population. So to slow it down so you have enough hospital beds, you isolate the community. Well, how long do you want to spread it out? 6 months. A year? Of, so let's shut down the US for 6 months or a year. Is that the recommendation? IF so, how do you do that? No ones' going to shop, go to the doctors, got to school go to work. stop eating, etc. We're kidding ourselves.
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I'm not doubting your point. The questions are how long do we have to shut down society and is the time frame realistic and acceptable?
I'll throw it back to you. How many lives are we willing to sacrifice in order to get the stock market back on track? How many lives is worth getting basketball back playing. How many lives is it worth being able to have a nice dinner out and a movie?
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I'll throw it back to you. How many lives are we willing to sacrifice in order to get the stock market back on track? How many lives is worth getting basketball back playing. How many lives is it worth being able to have a nice dinner out and a movie?
I agree we can forego basketball games. Heck, I don;t watch them anyway., But my point is other real-world survival stuff. I just cancelled an appointment with my endocrinologist which I had set-up because I'm a diabetic. How long should I forego that checkup? I've got four steaks left in the freezer? What do I do when I run out? Pull out my Second Amendment gun and start shooting birds flying by? What about the popcorn seller at the basketball game who has lost income to feed his family? What's he suppose to do? Of course we can all sacrifice. My wife and I are retired. So we can stay at home and relax. But how far and how long before it becomes intolerable for others and they say screw-it? They'll take their chances?
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“Flattening the curve” = prolonging the misery.
Let it run its course, be done with it, and move on.
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I agree we can forego basketball games. Heck, I don;t watch them anyway., But my point is other real-world survival stuff. I just cancelled an appointment with my endocrinologist which I had set-up because I'm a diabetic. How long should I forego that checkup? I've got four steaks left in the freezer? What do I do when I run out? Pull out my Second Amendment gun and start shooting birds flying by? What about the popcorn seller at the basketball game who has lost income to feed his family? What's he suppose to do? Of course we can all sacrifice. My wife and I are retired. So we can stay at home and relax. But how far and how long before it becomes intolerable for others and they say screw-it? They'll take their chances?
Common sense dictates here. If you need food, medication etc...go out and get it. Just don't get close to anyone and wash hands when you return. Heck...I just got back from walking my dog along a beach which had maybe 6 other people. No one got close to anyone.
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“Flattening the curve” = prolonging the misery.
Let it run its course, be done with it, and move on.
Your advice will be accepted next year, if it comes back. Right now people are too scared.
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“Flattening the curve” = prolonging the misery.
Let it run its course, be done with it, and move on.
No...it's reducing the misery.
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Common sense dictates here. If you need food, medication etc...go out and get it. Just don't get close to anyone and wash hands when you return. Heck...I just got back from walking my dog along a beach which had maybe 6 other people. No one got close to anyone.
Walking on the beach with your dog is not the same as going to a doctor's office for a checkup, or going to the supermarket to go shopping. How do you get close to anyone at Disneyland when its shut down and all the employees are out of work eating beans at home because that's all they can afford?
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No...it's reducing the misery.
Extending the curve doesn;t change much. If everyone that's going to get sick gets sick anyway, just over a longer period, deaths will remain pretty much the same. The misery from being isolated and not working is spread out. Pay now or pay later. But you're going to pay. Maybe more.
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Walking on the beach with your dog is not the same as going to a doctor's office for a checkup, or going to the supermarket to go shopping. How do you get close to anyone at Disneyland when its shut down and all the employees are out of work eating beans at home because that's all they can afford?
Don't know what your supermarket is like, but I can go to mine at 8:00am and it's almost totally vacant...or after 9:00pm. Again use common sense.
As far as seeing your doctor, phone him/her to see what they suggest.
You can view things as extreme cases and run around like a chicken without a head, or just use common sense.
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Extending the curve doesn;t change much. If everyone that's going to get sick gets sick anyway, just over a longer period, deaths will remain pretty much the same. The misery from being isolated and not working is spread out. Pay now or pay later. But you're going to pay. Maybe more.
You are totally wrong if you think deaths will remain the same. Right now in Italy they don't have enough equipment to handle all the critical cases so they are deciding who gets the help and who dies. If the critical cases arrived at an extended timeframe, there would be equipment available for them and they would have a better chance of living.
And I'm sorry but I don't equate dying as the same as being without income for a few weeks...especially when billions has been promised to ensure people that need food will get food. I think you'd view this the same way if you would be one of those that required critical care but was chosen to just slowly die because of the lack of equipment and personnel.
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What did the Chinese do?
they don't have any stinking democracy - that's what they do ;D
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David Nunes suggested on Fox News this morning that you not panic and that you just take the family out to eat.
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His other joke about Philly was when he said his epitaph should read, "I'd Rather Be Here than in Philadelphia."
Actually, it was "On the whole, I'd rather be in Philadelphia". Much wittier.
Tylenol is toxic to the liver in high doses. It's a very problematic drug.
It is toxic to the liver in substantial overdose, but paracetamol (acetaminophen) is a very safe, very widely-used and very effective analgesic, given both orally and intravenously, and has been for many decades. There's nothing remotely "problematic" about it.
“Flattening the curve” = prolonging the misery.
Not quite. The misery is prolonged, certainly, but it's also potentially lessened if the peak infection rate is kept within the capacity of the health service to address it. That's the principle the UK government is adopting.
Jeremy
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You are totally wrong if you think deaths will remain the same. Right now in Italy they don't have enough equipment to handle all the critical cases so they are deciding who gets the help and who dies. If the critical cases arrived at an extended timeframe, there would be equipment available for them and they would have a better chance of living.
And I'm sorry but I don't equate dying as the same as being without income for a few weeks...especially when billions has been promised to ensure people that need food will get food. I think you'd view this the same way if you would be one of those that required critical care but was chosen to just slowly die because of the lack of equipment and personnel.
I hope you're right. At 75 with medical issues, I'm all for getting the best care I can get. I'm glad that it will be available by reducing the speed of the infection rate. Of course, I'm retired and could keep up with staying at home. Well, I do that anyway. My retirement and social security checks keep coming in the mail. I'm just wondering how long younger people who apparently aren't getting sick as the same rate as me and my fellow old dodgers, will put up staying at home.
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Actually, it was "On the whole, I'd rather be in Philadelphia". Much wittier.
It is toxic to the liver in substantial overdose, but paracetamol (acetaminophen) is a very safe, very widely-used and very effective analgesic, given both orally and intravenously, and has been for many decades. There's nothing remotely "problematic" about it.
Not quite. The misery is prolonged, certainly, but it's also potentially lessened if the peak infection rate is kept within the capacity of the health service to address it. That's the principle the UK government is adopting.
Jeremy
Jeremy, I though Tylenol is acetaminophen. Why is it more dangerous?
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That said i read about some Dutch scientists that say they have an antibody for the virus and i came across this article:
https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/lure-german-firm-working-virus-vaccine-report-200315165703635.html
If it is true it is a bad form of America First.
A US company also has an antibody against the virus (Regeneron) and has clinical material available. They also have the ability to manufacture this at large scale. Today this type of work is not rocket science.
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The "doubling" rate for Covid-19 infection cases varies greatly from one country to another.
For example, 33 days in China, 13 days in South Korea, 7 days in Iran, 5 days in Italy, 3 days in Germany, USA, and a few other countries. 27 days globally.
Why are there such huge differences? Is the growth rate accelerating?
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Maybe more rapid reporting without govt. censorship? Bad news gets out faster.
Rob
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It is toxic to the liver in substantial overdose, but paracetamol (acetaminophen) is a very safe, very widely-used and very effective analgesic, given both orally and intravenously, and has been for many decades. There's nothing remotely "problematic" about it.
It's not problematic in Europe as it is sold behind the counter. In the US this is not the case. In addition it is formulated into a variety of cold and flu medications. In the US, more patients die of drug induced liver injury from acetaminophen than any other drug, Rx or OTC. It is also commonly used in suicides with referrals to emergency rooms with acetaminophen poisoning. Sure this should be preventable by moving it behind the counter but that's not the way it is here.
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“Real time” data : https://coronavirus-realtime.com/?fbclid=IwAR0TDWVzV5JXWP8Fz2QxFfgUfMwwH4NqY8cOrLrIc6SOvzJMqiUJ9XR7bcw
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“Flattening the curve” = prolonging the misery.
Let it run its course, be done with it, and move on.
Have you read none of the medical research and mathematical modeling on the benefits of flattening the curve, or are you just choosing to ignore it, perhaps deferring to some other (non-medical) authority that you trust more? Maybe you are right and the medical/epidemiology research community as a whole is wrong, but I severely doubt it.
The US has about 100,000 IC beds and 60,000 to 160,000 ventilators (depending on which ones are counted as usable [1]). Several patients can be served in rotation with one ventilator. Data I linked to above [2] shows that it is highly likely that there will be in total far more cases needing such facilities over the next year or so: 50-fold in the case of IC cases vs IC beds. Evidence from Italy already indicates that if handled badly leading to a short intense curve, peak demand will greatly exceed supply; and the death toll got far worse there today, so the peak is yet to come (the daily death toll is now far higher than for seasonal flu).
If for example the case load outstrips medical capacity by 10:1, potentially 90% of severe case die "avoidably" for lack of adequate treatment. spread the peak five-fold and the overload is down to 2:1, and the "avoidable" death toll during the longe, wider peak down to about 50%; spread it ten-fold, and maybe everyone who needs such care has a good chance of getting it. And China is achieving peak reduction by large factors, as seen in sources I cite above.
Some more discussion and facts:
[1] http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/resources/COVID-19/200214-VentilatorAvailability-factsheet.pdf
[2] https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
[3] http://www.aast.org/GeneralInformation/mechanicalventilation.aspx (which says that about half of IC cases need ventilation, and so for COVID-19 whose main threat is respiratory it is probably over 50%)
[4] https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-intensive-care-unit-shortages-of-ventilators-staff-space-2020-3
[5] https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/13/coronavirus-numbers-we-really-should-be-worried-about/
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Extending the curve doesn;t change much. If everyone that's going to get sick gets sick anyway, just over a longer period, deaths will remain pretty much the same.
On the contrary: the death rate can be greatly affected by adequate access to intensive care; in particular, ventilators.
How many times are you going to repeat that claim and ignore what is repeatedly being said in reply (backed by multiple medical/scientific sources): spreading the case load over more time increases the ability of medical facilities to keep up and saves many more lives, reducing the death rate. China outside the original hot-zone of Hubei province has it down to about 1% — and with weeks of lock-downs, not months; South Korea maybe has it under 1% but the data so far is very fuzzy; in Italy instead it is about 4% or higher, maybe far higher, but hopefully the recent lock-downs will soon start showing benefits.
As I said to Slobodan, it is conceivable that you are right while the epidemiological research community as a whole is wrong, but I severely doubt it.
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Jeremy, I though Tylenol is acetaminophen. Why is it more dangerous?
Aside on the name confusion: the full chemical name is something like para-acetyl-amino-phenol; the USA abbreviates it one way (acetaminophen); much of the rest of the world does it another (paracetamol).
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On the contrary: the death rate can be greatly affected by adequate access to intensive care; in particular, ventilators.
How many times are you going to repeat that claim and ignore what is repeatedly being said in reply (backed by multiple medical/scientific sources): spreading the case load over more time increases the ability of medical facilities to keep up and saves many more lives, reducing the death rate. China outside the original hot-zone of Hubei province has it down to about 1% — and with weeks of lock-downs, not months; South Korea maybe has it under 1% but the data so far is very fuzzy; in Italy instead it is about 4% or higher, maybe far higher, but hopefully the recent lock-downs will soon start showing benefits.
As I said to Slobodan, it is conceivable that you are right while the epidemiological research community as a whole is wrong, but I severely doubt it.
Relax. None of us here are virus researchers and experts on this thing. It's the first time the country is dealing with this problem with such drastic national and international action. We should be exploring all possibilities, causes, outcomes, and methods. We should not be taking what a couple of so-called experts said as if it came from God. What if they're wrong? It become a he said she said kind of thing that we wind up repeating here. So we're all positing our personal opinions or parroting what we've read from other sources. In any case, you can't get to all the issues without brainstorming. That's how we all learn stuff. Trying to shut people up is not what debate is all about. That's only allowed among Canon and Nikon fanboys. :)
Getting back to your point about having enough ventilators spread out over a period of time makes sense. I understand what the flattening of the curve they're talking about. The problem I see is how long do we have to shut down the country? Is that possible? How do we feed and take care of people during that time? Will the cure wind up being worse than the disease? I don't think we really know and won't until it's all over and we can look at the data then.
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Relax. None of us here are virus researchers and experts on this thing. It's the first time the country is dealing with this problem with such drastic national and international action. We should be exploring all possibilities, causes, outcomes, and methods. We should not be taking what a couple of so-called experts said as if it came from God. What if they're wrong? It become a he said she said kind of thing that we wind up repeating here. So we're all positing our personal opinions or parroting what we've read from other sources. In any case, you can't get to all the issues without brainstorming. That's how we all learn stuff. Trying to shut people up is not what debate is all about. That's only allowed among Canon and Nikon fanboys. :)
Getting back to your point about having enough ventilators spread out over a period of time makes sense. I understand what the flattening of the curve they're talking about. The problem I see is how long do we have to shut down the country? Is that possible? How do we feed and take care of people during that time? Will the cure wind up being worse than the disease? I don't think we really know and won't until it's all over and we can look at the data then.
Well look at China that was locked down for what 2 or 3 weeks...now factories are starting up and new cases are declining...so that should give you an idea. But China was really locked down, not on an honour system like here in North America. I would think it might take longer here.
But you keep bringing up this "how long do we need to lock down" issue. Have you heard of any other plan of attack to control this virus now that containment is out of the picture. You seem not to trust the experts...do you have any other experts saying this is wrong? If not, why not really try understand the math and models behind the science rather than continually be so damn pessimistic.
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We are not shutting down the country. Critical supplies will move.
Non essentials will not move.
Let the young folks move and deliver supplies. Even if they are infected, more will keep it moving.
Us older folks stay home and out of exposure.
Slante!
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I'm going to confine all my comments on this thread to the technical side. Here is the best paper we have on aerosol and surface stability of COVID-19: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v1.full.pdf It is not clear whether warmer months will reduce the environmental stability of the virus though increased sunlight and UV radiation will help. It's highly doubtful that the virus can be transmitted by mosquitos as this is a mammalian and not an arbovirus. I'm reasonably confident that this is one thing you don't need to worry about.
I've been doing a lot of reading up on what the biopharma industry (my former employer) is doing to counter the pandemic. Perhaps the best ongoing discussion comes at Derek Lowe's website: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/ He's a drug discovery researcher in the pharma industry. I pretty much agree with him that there will not be a short term solution in terms of a drug to halt the pandemic. There are a few number of drugs in trials right now and Gilead's remdesivir, that was a putative Ebola drug, is in trials in the US and China (my understanding is this drug needs to be infused). Because it was examined during the Ebola outbreak a lot of testing has already been done. the big problem is it is a complicated drug to manufacture at scale. A second drug, camostat, is thought to work by preventing entry of the virus into cells; I think there may be a trial underway in China (this drug is approved in Japan so there may be good data regarding safety that could support quick approval). As Lowe states, that's about it. It's going to be a hard slog to screen lots of drugs and coming up with novel new approaches is a multi-year project.
One company represented at President Trump's round table two weeks ago, Regeneron, is working on a monoclonal antibody against COVID and stated they could make this at scale in a couple of months. This would be used in hospital settings for therapy. This is probably the best solution at hand and it's important to get this into the clinic ASAP.
The best approach is obviously a vaccine. There are several new approaches to quickly generating vaccine candidates based on RNA and DNA platforms. Unfortunately, these technologies have not been tested in humans. IMO, the one major failing of research agencies it was not funding preliminary trials of these platforms to look at safety and whether they were able to generate antibodies. This type of research could have been done in small trials to assess whether they really work as promised. We will start to see some early human trials in the next two months on several new vaccine candidates but this will not help resolve the current pandemic.
Some promising in-vitro data for chloroquine also: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0
Considering chloroquine's availability and side profile I will use it for the serious cases. I'm not sure yet how easy to get remdesivir will be.
Another protocol is lopinavir/ritonavir +/- ribavirin but I have yet to see data for this.
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You and me, both.
Forewarned is forearmed, and IIRC, you're not in the highest risk gouping (I am). Latest advice that needs to be heeded: stay away from Nurofen (Ibuprofen), all NSAIDs, if you can - they weaken your immune sytem and stick to Paracetamol.
If the mosquito risk turns out to be real, come back and I'll give you my 'recipe' for MMEAMFT (my most effective anti mosquito flame thrower) ...
There is a lot of talk that preserving the body's mechanism of producing fever is better but little hard data that confirms it. Obviously, if you don't need you don't take it.
Regarding acetaminophen/paracetamol. Up to 4g/day is safe if you have no liver problems, most will try to keep it under 3g/day. If you drink alcohol significantly expect less tolerance to its use.
In the parts of Europe that I know paracetamol can be bought over the counter. In some parts of Europe they still use metamizole.
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Has anyone heard/read any explanation for why Italy should be so hard hit?
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“Flattening the curve” = prolonging the misery.
Let it run its course, be done with it, and move on.
No. Life should be the primary target, not the economics which will rebound.
Overwhelm the system and everybody dies, not the just the Covid19 infections.
The sarcastic would say that in UK they are choosing the herd way because their pensions need help, most deaths will be in the retired group so less money to pay.
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Has anyone heard/read any explanation for why Italy should be so hard hit?
I can speculate that for once they reacted too late and another reason is that they got hit earlier than the rest of Europe where the bad is yet to come.
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We should not be taking what a couple of so-called experts said as if it came from God.
It's not just a couple. What do you mean by "so-called"?
We're not talking about interweb-based flat earth skeptics here.
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Has anyone heard/read any explanation for why Italy should be so hard hit?
Could be due to their high consumption of Lambrusco wine and olive oil. Or because they hug and kiss so much.
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Well look at China that was locked down for what 2 or 3 weeks...now factories are starting up and new cases are declining...so that should give you an idea. But China was really locked down, not on an honour system like here in North America. I would think it might take longer here.
But you keep bringing up this "how long do we need to lock down" issue. Have you heard of any other plan of attack to control this virus now that containment is out of the picture. You seem not to trust the experts...do you have any other experts saying this is wrong? If not, why not really try understand the math and models behind the science rather than continually be so damn pessimistic.
I'm 75 years old and certainly concerned about getting this disease. On the other hand, at 75, I can't count the number of times I heard experts give totally wrong advice in my life. I remember when 99% of economists said we were in great shape right before the 2008 recession and collapse of home values and stock prices. All the experts said we were winning in Vietnam and certainly we all remember the Iraq Mission Accomplished sign.
In any case, maybe you're the one being so pessimistic assuming the worst is going to happen, that we should shut down the world to protect ourselves. The argument that there aren't enough ventilators seems to be a rather weak argument and limited tool to shut down the entire country and world. Maybe we can get 10,000 workers who aren't working now to build what we need in one month so we can get back some normalcy. Wouldn't that be a better approach?
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Could be due to their high consumption of Lambrusco wine and olive oil. Or because they hug and kiss so much.
What a way to go!
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I'm 75 years old and certainly concerned about getting this disease. On the other hand, at 75, I can't count the number of times I heard experts give totally wrong advice in my life. I remember when 99% of economists said we were in great shape right before the 2008 recession and collapse of home values and stock prices. All the experts said we were winning in Vietnam and certainly we all remember the Iraq Mission Accomplished sign.
In any case, maybe you're the one being so pessimistic assuming the worst is going to happen, that we should shut down the world to protect ourselves. The argument that there aren't enough ventilators seems to be a rather weak argument and limited tool to shut down the entire country and world. Maybe we can get 10,000 workers who aren't working now to build what we need in one month so we can get back some normalcy. Wouldn't that be a better approach?
Oh I forgot my heart doctor who told me I was in great shape a week before I had a triple bypass. :o
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I'm 75 years old and certainly concerned about getting this disease. On the other hand, at 75, I can't count the number of times I heard experts give totally wrong advice in my life. I remember when 99% of economists said we were in great shape right before the 2008 recession and collapse of home values and stock prices. All the experts said we were winning in Vietnam and certainly we all remember the Iraq Mission Accomplished sign.
In any case, maybe you're the one being so pessimistic assuming the worst is going to happen, that we should shut down the world to protect ourselves. The argument that there aren't enough ventilators seems to be a rather weak argument and limited tool to shut down the entire country and world. Maybe we can get 10,000 workers who aren't working now to build what we need in one month so we can get back some normalcy. Wouldn't that be a better approach?
Sorry...I'm out. You win. Let's all go hug our neighbours...screw all the people who have been studying pandemics and how they spread their whole lives...what do they know that we don't. Let's all follow Italy's lead...seems things worked out fine for them. Open up those American institutions like McDonalds, Starbucks and Dunkin Donuts...let's all have a party.
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Sorry...I'm out. You win. Let's all go hug our neighbours...screw all the people who have been studying pandemics and how they spread their whole lives...what do they know that we don't. Let's all follow Italy's lead...seems things worked out fine for them. Open up those American institutions like McDonalds, Starbucks and Dunkin Donuts...let's all have a party.
OK I'll give you a hug. It sounds like you need one. :)
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CDC recommends people shut down gatherings of all groups of 50 or more for the next 8 weeks. I suppose that doesn;t include McDonalds or most places of business.
https://www.npr.org/2020/03/15/816245252/cdc-recommends-suspending-gatherings-of-50-or-more-people-for-the-next-8-weeks
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OK I'll give you a hug. It sounds like you need one. :)
Nah...not really man. I ain't the one that seems to have been f'd up by everyone around him...especially the "so called" experts.
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The Fed to print $700 billion in currency adding to our deficits and debt.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/federal-reserve-cuts-rates-to-zero-and-launches-massive-700-billion-quantitative-easing-program.html
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Nah...not really man. I ain't the one that seems to have been f'd up by everyone around him...especially the "so called" experts.
Life's a bitch. Then you get a virus. I with you man.
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Well, staying home we have all the time to watch the stock market tomorrow and see our retirement accounts dissipate. DOW futures are down another 1000 points.
Plunging stock market futures hit ‘limit down’ — Here’s what that means
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/the-sp-500-futures-hit-limit-down-at-5-percent.html
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Sorry...I'm out. You win. Let's all go hug our neighbours...screw all the people who have been studying pandemics and how they spread their whole lives...what do they know that we don't. Let's all follow Italy's lead...seems things worked out fine for them. Open up those American institutions like McDonalds, Starbucks and Dunkin Donuts...let's all have a party.
All the experts now are related to Trump - God help us.
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All the experts now are related to Trump - God help us.
The Federal government's actions are limited by the constitution. Most of the action is local. States, counties, and towns shut down restaurants, schools, etc and are affecting stringent rules, not Washington. The Fed can shut down interstate stuff as well as international including immigration and travel. There are 50 states and thousands of various municipalities governments in the USA. Each of then are deciding what to do within their territory.
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The federal government ordered the screenings at airports that has left people crowded together for hours.
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I was wondering how long it would take for a healthy amount of TDS to break out in this new topic. About a day; it spreads fast. ;D
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The federal government ordered the screenings at airports that has left people crowded together for hours.
What's your point?
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Some promising in-vitro data for chloroquine also: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0
Considering chloroquine's availability and side profile I will use it for the serious cases.
Is there a mechanism for national (or international, for that matter) gathering of information about the clinical use and apparent effectiveness of existing antiviral drugs? In other words, if many doctors experience good outcomes with a particular medication for patients who otherwise appeared to have poor prospects of recovery, is there a reporting mechanism to capture and aggregate that experience―and, presumably, make it available to other clinicians who are treating similarly-situated patients while more definitive controlled studies are conducted?
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I was wondering how long it would take for a healthy amount of TDS to break out in this new topic. Less then a day; it spreads fast. ;D
Total Dissolved Solids or Thermal Desorption Spectroscopy?
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Is there a mechanism for national (or international, for that matter) gathering of information about the clinical use and apparent effectiveness of existing antiviral drugs? In other words, if many doctors experience good outcomes with a particular medication for patients who otherwise appeared to have poor prospects of recovery, is there a reporting mechanism to capture and aggregate that experience―and, presumably, make it available to other clinicians who are treating similarly-situated patients while more definitive controlled studies are conducted?
Are doctors allowed to prescribe drugs for non-approved diseases? Do insurance companies and Medicare/Medicaid cover prescriptions for drugs for non-approved diseases?
Back in January, the federal bureaucracy shut presumably preemptive testing down because labs being used were not approved for medical testing, only scientific testing, even though they have the ability. Additionally, a flu study was in the process of being turned into a COVID19 study, but also shut down due to the test participants only waived their swabs to be tested for the flu, not COVID19.
So I would not be surprised if bureaucracy screws us over a couple more times before this ends.
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Has anyone heard/read any explanation for why Italy should be so hard hit?
I just watched CBC National, and they mentioned the following factors:
1. Italy was the one of the first European countries to get the virus and they were totally unprepared for it. Something like 2 weeks before the other EU countries.
2. Their Patient #1 was misdiagnosed and repeatedly turned away from the hospital, and subsequently he infected a number of people who then gave it to others.
3. Italy's population is the oldest in Europe and thus more susceptible to such virus infections
This explanation was given by an Italian doctor. He may have mentioned more reasons, but that's all I remember.
Sadly, Italy had on Sunday their deadliest Covid-19 day - 368 fatalities.
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Total Dissolved Solids or Thermal Desorption Spectroscopy?
Neither.
Just an over reliance on too many Tubular Date Systems with Time Driven Switching, which will lead us to The Downward Spiral and ultimately force us to utilize US Army Trial Defense Services.
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Are doctors allowed to prescribe drugs for non-approved diseases? Do insurance companies and Medicare/Medicaid cover prescriptions for drugs for non-approved diseases?
Back in January, the federal bureaucracy shut presumably preemptive testing because labs being used were approved for medical testing, only scientific testing, even though they have the ability. Additionally, a flu study way in the process of being turned into a COVID19 study, but also shut down due to the test participants only approved their swabs be tested for the flu, no COVID19.
So I would not be surprised if bureaucracy screws us over a couple more times before this ends.
This should be the worse that happens.
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I think this is all Millennium X's plan to get rid of us old fogies so they don;t have to pay our Social Security. >:(
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I just watched CBC National, and they mentioned the following factors:
1. Italy was the one of the first European countries to get the virus and they were totally unprepared for it. Something like 2 weeks before the other EU countries.
2. Their Patient #1 was misdiagnosed and repeatedly turned away from the hospital, and subsequently he infected a number of people who then gave it to others.
3. Italy's population is the oldest in Europe and thus more susceptible to such virus infections
This explanation was given by an Italian doctor. He may have mentioned more reasons, but that's all I remember.
Similar thing happened in Washington. After the CDC initially sent out some way too specific guidelines on who should be tested, and who should not, back in January, a sick man visited his doctor who just returned from Wuhan. He did not fill the very specific criteria for testing, was not tested, turned away and later it was found out he had the virus.
Rack another one up for bureaucracy and the experts.
Look on the bright side for Italy though, at least it's not a Hawaiian Pizza pandemic! (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDUy3Y_w9Tk&feature=youtu.be) ;D ;D ;D
(Just saw this and could not resist.)
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The question you need to ask yourself if you are over 65 is
When will everyone under 65 become so fed up with quarantines and economic shutdowns that they say, To hell with old people.
(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcSxmJiyKhoa55lgR14qwfPLOlaH6FdZeQqUzovf-I4vPFvqgHRC)
[Content may contain satire]
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Good composition. The girl is placed exactly at two thirds and the large shovel is balancing out nicely the big guy on the left side. The yellow dress complements beautifully girl's brown skin and the guys in forest green uniforms.
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...and the signs of Covid-19 are obvious !
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Jeremy, I though Tylenol is acetaminophen. Why is it more dangerous?
I believe it is, and I don't understand your question. More dangerous than what?
It's not problematic in Europe as it is sold behind the counter. In the US this is not the case. In addition it is formulated into a variety of cold and flu medications. In the US, more patients die of drug induced liver injury from acetaminophen than any other drug, Rx or OTC. It is also commonly used in suicides with referrals to emergency rooms with acetaminophen poisoning. Sure this should be preventable by moving it behind the counter but that's not the way it is here.
In the UK, paracetamol is widely sold in corner shops and supermarkets as well as in pharmacies, both in "pure" form and as a component of proprietary cold and 'flu remedies. It's stacked on shelves, not "behind the counter". I've bought it in supermarkets in France, Italy and Spain, and I'd be very surprised if it weren't readily available in other countries too.
Like all effective drugs, it has side effects and like all effective drugs it's toxic, potentially lethal, in acute overdose. That doesn't make it "problematic"; and I've no idea what you imagine would be accomplished by "moving it behind the counter": anyone who wanted to acquire a lethal dose could simply go to more than one shop.
If you want a "remedy" that's absolutely safe, try homeopathy.
Jeremy
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Have you read none of the medical research and mathematical modeling on the benefits of flattening the curve, or are you just choosing to ignore it,...
I am perfectly aware of the concept of flattening the curve, I am just making a different choice between the options. Prolonged flattening will cause much more economic damage and ruined lives.
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Has anyone heard/read any explanation for why Italy should be so hard hit?
Simple.
1. la dolce vita
2. Superior socialized medicine, where it costs nothing to get tested, leading to early detection, thus reducing the spread and casualties. Oh, wait...
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The Fed to print $700 billion in currency adding to our deficits and debt.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/federal-reserve-cuts-rates-to-zero-and-launches-massive-700-billion-quantitative-easing-program.html
What’s the point of economic stimulus when there is no economy??? It is like flogging a dead horse.
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What’s the point of economic stimulus when there is no economy??? It is like flogging a dead horse.
The more flogging of the dead horse, the more tender the steak!
How are you feeling today?
Rob
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As from last night, Serbia is in a state of emergency, after only 48 confirmed cases. Borders closed, schools, kindergartens, gyms, etc. closed through the rest of the year. Restaurants and bars open till 8pm. No one over 65 shall be on the streets or risk a 3-year jail sentence. Police and military would patrol the streets. I am in a self-quarantine, day 6, with some sort of the flu or even corona. Tired of sleeping all day, all night. I have no idea how they expect elderly, especially those who live alone, to remain in isolation for months.
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. No one over 65 shall be on the streets or risk a 3-year jail sentence. Police and military would patrol the streets.
A 3-year sentence is a death sentence, in this case...They should shoot the old people on site! And be done with it! I'm just Kidding of course. ; )
Peter
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I am perfectly aware of the concept of flattening the curve, I am just making a different choice between the options. Prolonged flattening will cause much more economic damage and ruined lives.
The economy will recover, the dead won't get the chance.
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The economy will recover, the dead won't get the chance.
Let's hear what comrade Stalin had to say about that: "One death is a tragedy. One million - a statistics."
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I am perfectly aware of the concept of flattening the curve, I am just making a different choice between the options. Prolonged flattening will cause much more economic damage and ruined lives.
Covid-19 is here and to stay; You cannot lock it out. You will have to deal with it. there is no safe place.
Your method is not preserving damage. A vaccin might be here in some time making the effects less grave, like with any other decease there is treatment for.
If you are true to this believe just get it, deal with it and see if you survive.
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I just watched CBC National, and they mentioned the following factors:
1. Italy was the one of the first European countries to get the virus and they were totally unprepared for it. Something like 2 weeks before the other EU countries.
2. Their Patient #1 was misdiagnosed and repeatedly turned away from the hospital, and subsequently he infected a number of people who then gave it to others.
3. Italy's population is the oldest in Europe and thus more susceptible to such virus infections
This explanation was given by an Italian doctor. He may have mentioned more reasons, but that's all I remember.
Sadly, Italy had on Sunday their deadliest Covid-19 day - 368 fatalities.
Another interesting fact is that many young people live with their parents, because of the shitty economy, joblessness, and inability to have one's own home. I've seen a graphic that showed the group 'responsible' for infecting the more vulnerable older part of the population, spiked between 20 and 30 years of age (if I recall correctly). Combine that with more social contacts in that age group and a late recognition of the issue, and there you have another recipe for disaster.
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Let's hear what comrade Stalin had to say about that: "One death is a tragedy. One million - a statistics."
Slobodan, regardless of what you might think I'm not a communist or for that matter a socialist.
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Covid-19 is here and to stay; You cannot lock it out. You will have to deal with it. there is no safe place.
Your method is not preserving damage. A vaccin might be here in some time making the effects less grave, like with any other decease there is treatment for.
If you are true to this believe just get it, deal with it and see if you survive.
Sounds like a great plan to me!
I am currently sick with something, for two days now. Is it COVID19? Who knows?
But let's look at the mild symptoms. Headache, check. Sore throat, check. Cough, check. Body aches and muscle tiredness, check. Fever, dont know, I dont own a medical thermometer. Am I going to get tested for it, nope.
Whatever I have, it is a cake walk compared to the flu I got earlier this winter which had me, and my wife, in bed functionless for a week. I am functioning rather well right now with the exception of those symptoms mildly effecting me. Now before any looses their mind here, it is a slow season for me and, aside from a shoot planned this Wednesday of a movie theatre in Union Square, I have no immediate projects. And given the current state in NYC, I am pretty sure that shoot is getting cancelled, especially considering the GMs are not responding to my client's emails. So, I am self quarantining just due to the circumstances.
However, I am seriously considering just going into Manhattan to shoot exteriors for myself. Having streets as empty as they could ever be to shoot architecture is just, well, not to sound insensitive, music to my ears as an architectural photographer.
I feel like this whole situation is getting out of hand, especially with closing down the schools. Who usually takes care of kids when their parents are working, grandparents, that's who. Is that going to change, of course not. In essence we are setting up a situation where those whom, when contracting the virus don't show any symptoms, are going to be looked after by those whom are the most vulnerable. Sounds like a well thought out idea to me!
I am all for shutting down nursing homes and retirement communities to all but non-essential personal, and telling people not to visit the elderly or those with health conditions for a month or two.
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Fever, dont know, I dont own a medical thermometer.
Easily corrected. Really.
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Sounds like a great plan to me!
I am currently sick with something, for two days now. Is it COVID19? Who knows? ...
I think we all have that feeling with every cough we make...
At the moment my lungs are not perfect- just did a 7km run and it feels better; burning my lungs with oxygen does something good.
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Easily corrected. Really.
Well, I dont feel warm, or that much warmer then I usually do. When I had the flu between the holidays, it was obvious I had a 100+F fever, so I am not really worrying enough to solve that problem right now. To tell the truth, I caught both the flu and a mild case of (I think) pneumonia, or something, was sick for three weeks, and developed a chronic cough (from my throat being destroyed) for about a month after getting better. I actually cough so hard, I popped a vein in my left eye and half of it turned red. Now I am just sitting here thinking, great I have to deal with this again! ???
The sudden unexplained constant muscle tiredness is the reason I know I have something.
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A lot of discussion in the EU over respirators and critical care beds.
Charts are not the latest data but still reasonably representative; UK in the bottom 25% .
(https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs00134-012-2627-8/MediaObjects/134_2012_2627_Fig1_HTML.gif)
Comparison of the numbers of critical care beds per 100,000 against the proportion of health expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic product (in millions of US dollars). Lines represent linear regression analysis together with 95 % confidence intervals around the line (r 2 < 0.0001, p = 0.91)
(https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs00134-012-2627-8/MediaObjects/134_2012_2627_Fig2_HTML.gif)
The overall number of critical care beds for Europe was 11.5/100,000 head of population. This is in marked contrast to the number for the USA, which Carr found to be 28/100,000 in 2010.
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I just watched CBC National, and they mentioned the following factors:
1. Italy was the one of the first European countries to get the virus and they were totally unprepared for it. Something like 2 weeks before the other EU countries.
2. Their Patient #1 was misdiagnosed and repeatedly turned away from the hospital, and subsequently he infected a number of people who then gave it to others.
3. Italy's population is the oldest in Europe and thus more susceptible to such virus infections
This explanation was given by an Italian doctor. He may have mentioned more reasons, but that's all I remember.
Sadly, Italy had on Sunday their deadliest Covid-19 day - 368 fatalities.
I read, don’t remember where or if it accurate, is that Italy has sold some of their clothing companies the the Chinese. But to keep the made in Italy tag they are importing hordes of Chinese to make them and there are (or were) tons of direct flights to China for workers.
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As from last night, Serbia is in a state of emergency, after only 48 confirmed cases. Borders closed, schools, kindergartens, gyms, etc. closed through the rest of the year. Restaurants and bars open till 8pm. No one over 65 shall be on the streets or risk a 3-year jail sentence. Police and military would patrol the streets. I am in a self-quarantine, day 6, with some sort of the flu or even corona. Tired of sleeping all day, all night. I have no idea how they expect elderly, especially those who live alone, to remain in isolation for months.
Over 65s being on the streets: so how do the alone ones get food to cook? Having family around is often a luxury, not a given.
Today, I went shopping and the supermarket was handing out thin plastic gloves, which was nice, However, in the underground car park where you can also pick up trolleys, there was nobody handing out gloves, so contaminated hands inside gloves as you shop. Cool. If you didn't use the undergropund parking area, you could get the trolleys inside the market after the gloves. Something learned.
Closing at 8p.m. is nuts: does the virus wear a watch?
Tired of sleeping: time to start micro-photography indoors. Photograph your toenail, for a start; you are probably young enough to be able to get close enough to it.
;-)
Rob
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Some promising in-vitro data for chloroquine also: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0
Considering chloroquine's availability and side profile I will use it for the serious cases. I'm not sure yet how easy to get remdesivir will be.
Another protocol is lopinavir/ritonavir +/- ribavirin but I have yet to see data for this.
Chloroquine has a pretty bad side effect profile which is why it is not used as a Malaria prophylactic any longer. We'll see if there is any positive clinical data. Redesivir is a difficult molecule to synthesize at scale and as I noted is an infusion drug. Still it could prove useful for acute cases. There are multiple clinical trials going on in China with combinations of products. One hopes that the data will be expeditiously published. I presume that the same thing will be done at US teaching hospitals as case loads increase. It would be good to test out biologicals that affect the cytokine pathways as these seem to be affected in the worst cases.
The first vaccine will go into trials at Kaiser Permanente in Seattle today according to reports. It's one of the new gene based vaccines produced by Moderna. We really will need good safety and potency data as quickly as possible. There's still going to be the issue of how many people ultimately to vaccinate since the majority of patients only get mild symptoms.
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Now I am just sitting here thinking, great I have to deal with this again! ???
Joe,
If it hasn't descended into your lungs, you can still 'help'.
Advice excerpted from Professor of Infectious Diseases, CHu (Switzerland).
How the Covid 19 manifests:
1. The virus first settles in the throat, causing inflammation and a feeling of a dry throat: this symptom can last 3/4 days.
2. the virus then travels through the moisture present in the respiratory tract, descends into the trachea, then settles in the lungs, causing pneumonia. This stage lasts approximately 5/6 days.
3. Pneumonia occurs with high fever and difficulty breathing, but is not accompanied by conventional shivering. If you feel like you are choking, contact your doctor immediately.
It's anticipated (but not confirmed) that the virus does not withstand heat and dies if exposed to temperatures of 26-27 degrees (80F), so hot drinks such as tea, herbal tea or soup should often be consumed during the day, or simply hot water; hot liquids neutralise the virus, so avoid drinking ice water.
Also, as always, gargle with a disinfectant solution : salt dissolved in hot water.
Above seems innocuous , even if it eventually proves to be both innefective and the experts wrong.
Bolding is mine.
Good luck!
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Covid-19 may not show signs of infection for many days, during which time it is not known whether a person is infected or not. But when you have a fever and / or cough, your lungs are usually still 50% clear.
We suggest doing a simple check that you can do yourself every morning:
Take a deep breath and hold your breath for more than 10 seconds. If you do this without coughing, feeling oppressive, etc., it shows that there is no fibrosis in the lungs, which basically indicates the absence of infection. At such critical times, check this every morning in a clean air environment.
Peer review and critique invited.
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To address my own earlier question about Italy, I read one plausible explanation and that is that Italy is NOT a special case. It's just what will happen everywhere to a greater or lesser extent. They were just the first (or nearly the first) European country that was hit and so were late with preparations.
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In the UK, paracetamol is widely sold in corner shops and supermarkets as well as in pharmacies, both in "pure" form and as a component of proprietary cold and 'flu remedies. It's stacked on shelves, not "behind the counter". I've bought it in supermarkets in France, Italy and Spain, and I'd be very surprised if it weren't readily available in other countries too.
Like all effective drugs, it has side effects and like all effective drugs it's toxic, potentially lethal, in acute overdose. That doesn't make it "problematic"; and I've no idea what you imagine would be accomplished by "moving it behind the counter": anyone who wanted to acquire a lethal dose could simply go to more than one shop.
Jeremy
My post about 'behind the counter' availability came from drug safety experts during our yearly Drug Induced Liver Injury workshops that we were coordinating with the US FDA and academic researchers. There are some countries where it is behind the counter and your experience points that this is not universal. Products containing pseudoephedrine were moved behind the counter here in the US because the compound is easily converted into crystal meth a la 'Breaking Bad' One can only purchase a limited supply an in order to acquire the necessary amount to do what Walter White did, one would have to visit lots of pharmacies.
Some drugs that are OTC here in the US are not available unless by Rx in other countries. When we were in Ireland several years ago, my wife was running low on naproxen. I went across the street to a pharmacy in Galway and didn't see any on the shelf. The pharmacist said it was Rx only.
The point about acetaminophen is that there are tragedies occuring all the time here in the US. You may cavalierly believe that its safe and let's not worry. During our DILI workshops we covered a lot of problem areas, including a mother who bought the wrong strength drops to administer to her infant. There are case records also of patients going into liver failure from taking both pills and elixirs containing acetaminophen and in inadvertently over dosing.
This is it for me regarding this topic.
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It's anticipated (but not confirmed) that the virus does not withstand heat and dies if exposed to temperatures of 26-27 degrees (80F)
That doesn't make sense. The human body temperature is 37C.
If this really is from a 'Professor of Infectious Diseases, CHu (Switzerland)' please provide a link.
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To address my own earlier question about Italy, I read one plausible explanation and that is that Italy is NOT a special case. It's just what will happen everywhere to a greater or lesser extent. They were just the first (or nearly the first) European country that was hit and so were late with preparations.
Italy has the second highest concentration of old people next to Japan. I don't know what the smoking rate in Italy is, maybe not as high as France but that could be contributory as are other health issues that come as one gets older. We'll have to see what the full epidemiological data show
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I’m 67, and diabetic, my wife 66 and mostly healthy and my 90 yo mother lives with us. She is a cancer survivor. We have been stockpiling for a few weeks And are good for a month or two. Given my compromise and my mothers age, we closed our doors to the world on Friday.
We are fortunate that we have the money to survive this, others will be hard hit. My wife father, 90 lives alone having lost his wife a year ago. He’s not in the best position mentally since the loss but is in good health. He refuses to join us her for the short term. My wife has been visiting him daily when possible since her mother’s death, but is very conflicted, as am I about her continuing that practice now. I’m advocating FaceTime, but there is resistance.
We have no mandatory lockdown yet. Some business is still open but, based on reports, food stores are near empty. No word on resupply. As of today my county has no reported cases. But cases are present in the state and nearby counties.
We had just stared an 11 unit RV project and I have photographed three as of Friday. The next prototype is not due until the end of the month and as of today the plant was still open. I have no idea if they will continue to work and I’ll consider the situation as we get closer to the end of the month. But I’m fully committed to saying no to the work should it be required.
We have long considered retiring and have funds ( dwindling quickly as the markets drop today) and availabe Social Security. I’m reluctant to stop working because I still enjoy it and in physically capable...plus the money is very good for a few months work. Maybe now might be the time.
But...and this is the kicker...none of us knows what the world looks like in a few month. Let’s hope it’s still a world we can still recognize.
Here is hoping everyone here survives this mess. To those of you who are ill, prayers for your swift recovery. Try and stay safe. Despite our many differences we are all still here for a common reason and I hope the best for all of you.
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That doesn't make sense. The human body temperature is 37C.
If this really is from a 'Professor of Infectious Diseases, CHu (Switzerland)' please provide a link.
best paper on aerosol and surface stability of COVID-19: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v1.full.pdf
I have not seen any data on heat stability of this particular virus.
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What’s the point of economic stimulus when there is no economy??? It is like flogging a dead horse.
Exactly. So the DOW shut down when "Circuit breakers" popped after 5 minutes after the opening down another 2300 points or 10%. Someone mentioned above that the young won't put up with this too long and let the old people die. The flattening of the curve won't last too long. Meanwhile someone died in a nearby hospital but she was around 50, relatively young. On the bright side, the post office is supposed to deliver my large format 90mm lens this morning. My wife told me she won't answer the door and sign for it though. Things are getting testy already. :)
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Exactly. So the DOW shut down when "Circuit breakers" popped after 5 minutes after the opening down another 2300 points or 10%. Someone mentioned above that the young won't put up with this too long and let the old people die. The flattening of the curve won't last too long. Meanwhile someone died in a nearby hospital but she was around 50, relatively young. On the bright side, the post office is supposed to deliver my large format 90mm lens this morning. My wife told me she won't answer the door and sign for it though. Things are getting testy already. :)
90mm, for what format? 4x5, if so, did you get the center filter for it?
I just looked up the price of an used mint Schneider Super-Angulon 90mm, my God what an insanely low price for a lens that was once very expensive. If you could, I'd suggest buying a spare Copel shutter. I have had all the springs in my Copel shutters replaced at least once in the 8 years I have been using my system, some twice. Although, as a professional, I am sure my gear gets a lot more wear and tear then others.
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It always surprises me that old people are so much more afraid of dying compared to young people that have so much more to loose.
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It always surprises me that old people are so much more afraid of dying compared to young people that have so much more to loose.
Experience teaches you lot, including your mortality. Eisenhower specifically picked young troops who never saw battle for the D-Day landing knowing full well experienced solders would be trepidatious to say the least about storming that beach.
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As from last night, Serbia is in a state of emergency, after only 48 confirmed cases. Borders closed, schools, kindergartens, gyms, etc. closed through the rest of the year. Restaurants and bars open till 8pm. No one over 65 shall be on the streets or risk a 3-year jail sentence. Police and military would patrol the streets. I am in a self-quarantine, day 6, with some sort of the flu or even corona. Tired of sleeping all day, all night. I have no idea how they expect elderly, especially those who live alone, to remain in isolation for months.
I'm over 65 and have doctor and dentist appointments. What would I do if I was there?
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I'm over 65 and have doctor and dentist appointments. What would I do if I was there?
My DR cancelled a med check appointment for Weds. I would have done it myself had she not.
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It always surprises me that old people are so much more afraid of dying compared to young people that have so much more to loose.
I don’t fear death, but that said I would prefer not to do it now.😎
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As from last night, Serbia is in a state of emergency, after only 48 confirmed cases. Borders closed, schools, kindergartens, gyms, etc. closed through the rest of the year. Restaurants and bars open till 8pm. No one over 65 shall be on the streets or risk a 3-year jail sentence. Police and military would patrol the streets. I am in a self-quarantine, day 6, with some sort of the flu or even corona. Tired of sleeping all day, all night. I have no idea how they expect elderly, especially those who live alone, to remain in isolation for months.
I'm over 65 and have doctor and dentist appointments. What would I do if I was there?Chloroquine has a pretty bad side effect profile which is why it is not used as a Malaria prophylactic any longer. We'll see if there is any positive clinical data. Redesivir is a difficult molecule to synthesize at scale and as I noted is an infusion drug. Still it could prove useful for acute cases. There are multiple clinical trials going on in China with combinations of products. One hopes that the data will be expeditiously published. I presume that the same thing will be done at US teaching hospitals as case loads increase. It would be good to test out biologicals that affect the cytokine pathways as these seem to be affected in the worst cases.
The first vaccine will go into trials at Kaiser Permanente in Seattle today according to reports. It's one of the new gene based vaccines produced by Moderna. We really will need good safety and potency data as quickly as possible. There's still going to be the issue of how many people ultimately to vaccinate since the majority of patients only get mild symptoms.
One would think the elderly would get first preference since they are most susceptible to not surviving the virus.
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In the UK, paracetamol is widely sold in corner shops and supermarkets as well as in pharmacies, both in "pure" form and as a component of proprietary cold and 'flu remedies. It's stacked on shelves,
My post about 'behind the counter' availability came from drug safety experts during our yearly Drug Induced Liver Injury workshops that we were coordinating with the US FDA and academic researchers. There are some countries where it is behind the counter and your experience points that this is not universal.
Paracetamol and Aspirin where part of a "colds & flu' may be for sale, stacked on shelves. Walk into any Boots (generic chemist chain) and 'pure' Solpadeine (paracetamol) and Nurofen is for sale 'behind the counter'. Ask for a pack and you'll likely be interrogated asto what you want to take it for. Ask for two and expect Armageddon.
None of which prevents 99% of the clientele from walking 100 yards down the high street to the next chemist and asking for, yes, you guessed it - another pack.
Alan,
thank you for the link:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v1.full.pdf
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best paper on aerosol and surface stability of COVID-19: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v1.full.pdf
Thanks, that's reassuring. Someone on the radio was saying that it can last 9 days on cardboard, whilst this paper says just 24 hours. My amazon deliveries can come out of quarantine :)
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That doesn't make sense. The human body temperature is 37C.
The reference (26C) is to outside ambient temperature.
Hot teas, soups, coffees etc are higher than the 37C body temperature.
I agree with you, some of the assumptions are indeed that, assumptions.
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The most interesting I find about this is just looking around at the grocer to see what people are stocking up on, perishables. What? ???
Yes, there was a lack of canned/dried goods as well, but nearly the entire meet department was emptied out. If this really hits, utilities will shut down. Refrigerators wont work and you're not going to be able to cook anything unless you have a wood burning stove.
All that will go to waste, unless you're crazy like me and know how to cure meats and make your own cheese.
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90mm, for what format? 4x5, if so, did you get the center filter for it?
I just looked up the price of an used mint Schneider Super-Angulon 90mm, my God what an insanely low price for a lens that was once very expensive. If you could, I'd suggest buying a spare Copel shutter. I have had all the springs in my Copel shutters replaced at least once in the 8 years I have been using my system, some twice. Although, as a professional, I am sure my gear gets a lot more wear and tear then others.
Yes, I just took up large format photography and got a new Chinese made Chamonix 4x5 camera, the 45H-1. It came before the cirus outbreak so I didn;lt have to disinfect it. :) The lens on order is a Nikkor 90mm f/4.5 with a CF from member of a different forum. I also ordered a 75mm Fujinon f/5.6 from Japan but no CF was available at this time.
Speaking of Copal 0 shutters, the first LF lens I bought was a 150mm Schneider APO Symmar MC f/5.6 I tested the shutter (using my cellphone sound recording and Audacity app) and it's about 1/3 stop fast on speeds from 1 sec to 1/30. People say I should live with it. But I wonder if that can be corrected either with a new Copal or spring or escapement adjustment? And whether it's worth it?
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... If you are true to this believe just get it, deal with it and see if you survive.
As I posted, I do seem to have it.
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Slobodan, regardless of what you might think I'm not a communist or for that matter a socialist.
Never occurred to me to claim otherwise.
Just pointing out that, when we enter the realm of high numbers, they become statistics, rather than individual tragedy.
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It always surprises me that old people are so much more afraid of dying compared to young people that have so much more to loose.
When you're young you think you;re going to live forever. Then you get older, things start to break down, and you realize there really is an end. But also I notice what happens, is that you become accepting of it and take it naturally especially if you can learn to live a day at a time. Another trick someone told be recently (I'm 75), is that no matter how old you are today, it's very possible to live another ten years. So you think about it in those terms and figure well, I got another ten years. God willing. So you keep plodding on. Be happy. All any of us have is today.
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My DR cancelled a med check appointment for Weds. I would have done it myself had she not.
I cancelled my blood test at Quest and my doctor's appt. I;ve cancelled all personal appts. They closed the clubhouse where I live in a 55+ community, so no poker. Men's club breakfasts cancelled. We have a cleaning girl but my wife refuses to cancel her. No jokes please. :)
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The most interesting I find about this is just looking around at the grocer to see what people are stocking up on, perishables. What? ???
Yes, there was a lack of canned/dried goods as well, but nearly the entire meet department was emptied out. If this really hits, utilities will shut down. Refrigerators wont work and you're not going to be able to cook anything unless you have a wood burning stove.
All that will go to waste, unless you're crazy like me and know how to cure meats and make your own cheese.
You've watched too much of the Walking Dead.
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Yes, I just took up large format photography and got a new Chinese made Chamonix 4x5 camera, the 45H-1. It came before the cirus outbreak so I didn;lt have to disinfect it. :) The lens on order is a Nikkor 90mm f/4.5 with a CF from member of a different forum. I also ordered a 75mm Fujinon f/5.6 from Japan but no CF was available at this time.
Speaking of Copal 0 shutters, the first LF lens I bought was a 150mm Schneider APO Symmar MC f/5.6 I tested the shutter (using my cellphone sound recording and Audacity app) and it's about 1/3 stop fast on speeds from 1 sec to 1/30. People say I should live with it. But I wonder if that can be corrected either with a new Copal or spring or escapement adjustment? And whether it's worth it?
It's analog technology, and, as good as a Copel shutter is, living with the speeds being slightly off is part of the deal. None of the shutters on my lenses are 100% consistent to each other. My Rodenstock 55mm shoots at 1/45 when set to 1/30, 1/90 when at set to 1/60, and so on. And there is no real way to fix this. Plus having a new spring installed will cost about $225, and the spring is what really dictates the inaccuracies. A slightly stronger spring will produce slightly faster speeds.
The plus with your lens is that the shutter speeds are slightly faster. When they are slightly slower is when you need to worry. As the spring wears down, the speeds will start to get slower, which is a sure sign the spring is getting ready to snap. Of course this takes like a 100,000+ actuations to get to this point, which is a little unlikely for a hobbyist but not hard to achieve as a professional.
I've had the spring in my go to lens snap twice on shoots. Fortunately I carry spare shutters and a spanner wrench with me.
Two additional points. First, never change speeds while the shutter is cocked! This is especially the case when going from 1/30 to 1/60 when internally the timing mechanism switches timing rings. Do this a few dozens times and you will destroy the timing rings. That 75mm, if it is fully symmetrical (probably is), will need a CF more then the 90mm. Light fall will probably be 3.5 to 4 stops. Could look cool, or could be annoying.
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You've watched too much of the Walking Dead.
Clostridium botulinum is a real thing.
Plus, meat rots a lot faster then people think. Unlike in the walking dead, under the right conditions, your arms, legs and head will rot completely off your body in as little as 5 days.
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Clostridium botulinum is a real thing.
Plus, meat rots a lot faster then people think. Unlike in the walking dead, under the right conditions, your arms, legs and head will rot completely off your body in as little as 5 days.
It frightens me that you know this stuff.
;-)
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The most interesting I find about this is just looking around at the grocer to see what people are stocking up on, perishables. What? ???
Yes, there was a lack of canned/dried goods as well, but nearly the entire meet department was emptied out. If this really hits, utilities will shut down. Refrigerators wont work and you're not going to be able to cook anything unless you have a wood burning stove.
All that will go to waste, unless you're crazy like me and know how to cure meats and make your own cheese.
I doubt services like electricity and gas will be gone at least for the short term. However if it gets to that point we have much bigger problems. If that’s the case you might be better served to have stockpiled lead 😁
Part of getting ready for this saw me filling the propane on the gas grill and buying a free extra bags of wood pellets for the Traeger. Our freezer is full and the pantry is stocked. We will be eating as much fresh as we can until it either outdated or it is gone. Then it’s the canned and items that need no perishables to prepare.
Again I feel lucky to have the resources to do this. I worry about those who either lack the resources or failed to prepare.
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It's analog technology, and, as good as a Copel shutter is, living with the speeds being slightly off is part of the deal. None of the shutters on my lenses are 100% consistent to each other. My Rodenstock 55mm shoots at 1/45 when set to 1/30, 1/90 when at set to 1/60, and so on. And there is no real way to fix this. Plus having a new spring installed will cost about $225, and the spring is what really dictates the inaccuracies. A slightly stronger spring will produce slightly faster speeds.
The plus with your lens is that the shutter speeds are slightly faster. When they are slightly slower is when you need to worry. As the spring wears down, the speeds will start to get slower, which is a sure sign the spring is getting ready to snap. Of course this takes like a 100,000+ actuations to get to this point, which is a little unlikely for a hobbyist but not hard to achieve as a professional.
I've had the spring in my go to lens snap twice on shoots. Fortunately I carry spare shutters and a spanner wrench with me.
Two additional points. First, never change speeds while the shutter is cocked! This is especially the case when going from 1/30 to 1/60 when internally the timing mechanism switches timing rings. Do this a few dozens times and you will destroy the timing rings. That 75mm, if it is fully symmetrical (probably is), will need a CF more then the 90mm. Light fall will probably be 3.5 to 4 stops. Could look cool, or could be annoying.
Thanks for the info. Interestingly, I checked my Mamiya RB67 medium format lenses: 50mm, 90mm, 180mm, and 360mm. These use Seiko shutters. After thirty years, all were extremely accurate. If course, not being a pro, I didn't click that often. But on the other hand, I left the shutter cocked in sme cases for 15+ years while the camera was not being used. So the Seiko shutters seem to be a lot better than the Copals. My Nikon N6006 35mm shutter was right on exactly on all speed up to about 1/125. Faster than that I couldn't really tell what the speed was due to the inaccuracy of the test methods at those speeds. It's an old camera but I think its shutter is electronically timed.
Regarding CF's, people say it's more of a problem with color than BW. I've just started so we'll see how it goes and what else I have to do. With Covid, this is a good time to get out to shoot as you can be safely by yourself breathing fresh uninfected air.
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Easily corrected. Really.
Is it?
I currently have a Walgreens digital thermometer that I brought with me from the States. No two readings are ever the same, and the difference can be several points apart.
So, a question: what is currently the most precise thermometer on the market, within a reasonable price range?
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It frightens me that you know this stuff.
;-)
Forensic Files is easy background noise when working on photos. I wont go into case details, but I've learned hot humid weather accelerates things rather quickly.
Like I alluded to before, I make my own cheese and doing a fair bit of canning. Although I would like to experiment with canning meat, botulism is not something I want to deal with. It is, by orders of magnitude, the deadliest substance ever discovered. Nothing even comes close; a grain of sand worth can kill 10,000 adults.
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...
Two additional points. First, never change speeds while the shutter is cocked! This is especially the case when going from 1/30 to 1/60 when internally the timing mechanism switches timing rings. Do this a few dozens times and you will destroy the timing rings. That 75mm, if it is fully symmetrical (probably is), will need a CF more then the 90mm. Light fall will probably be 3.5 to 4 stops. Could look cool, or could be annoying.
That's interesting because the spec sheet for the Copal says you can change speed f stops etc. I'll have to keep what you said in mind. The whole process with LF is complicated. I didn't realize it before I bought the camera. Why do people say to snap the shutter before using it again to actually expose the film?
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Clostridium botulinum is a real thing.
Plus, meat rots a lot faster then people think. Unlike in the walking dead, under the right conditions, your arms, legs and head will rot completely off your body in as little as 5 days.
Your fear of the electrical grid system going down and your freezer full of stocked up meat will rot is a bit extremist IMHO. It's that type of thinking and talk which is causing these shortages...even on toilet paper.
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Your fear of the electrical grid system going down and your freezer full of stocked up meat will rot is a bit extremist IMHO. It's that type of thinking and talk which is causing these shortages...even on toilet paper.
What? I am just saying is if you think a SHTF scenario is around the corner, you have to assume the utilities will shut down as well. They are manned by people, and without people will not work. So why buy something that will eventually spoil without proper storage? Not that I am thinking this way now, but if I went into panic mode, I would be giving it a little more thought than just buying everything I see.
And just so people here don't think I'm a crazy (or at least a certain type of crazy ;)), I'm not one of those preppers you see on TV. I do a fair bit of gardening and ended up with about 200 lb. of tomatoes last year plus a litany of other vegetables. Turns out when your garden gets no shade at all, your plants go totally crazy. My tomato plants ended up being 5 feet tall. So I made around 3 gallons of sauce and canned them, fermented the peppers and pickled the cucumbers. I make cheese just for the fun of it, and Rochefort is a lot cheaper to make then buy.
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Is it?
So, a question: what is currently the most precise thermometer on the market, within a reasonable price range?
I don't know but would ask your doctor for advice. Here, in the EU, I see a ton of forehead thermometers being used for sample testing. Hospitals, still using digital readout, oral or under arm, mercury thermometers.
Good luck
M
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What? I am just saying is if you think a SHTF scenario is around the corner, you have to assume the utilities will shut down as well. They are manned by people, and without people will not work. So why buy something that will eventually spoil without proper storage? Not that I am thinking this way now, but if I went into panic mode, I would be giving it a little more thought than just buying everything I see.
And just so people here don't think I'm a crazy (or at least a certain type of crazy ;)), I'm not one of those preppers you see on TV. I do a fair bit of gardening and ended up with about 200 lb. of tomatoes last year plus a litany of other vegetables. Turns out when your garden gets no shade at all, your plants go totally crazy. My tomato plants ended up being 5 feet tall. So I made around 3 gallons of sauce and canned them, fermented the peppers and pickled the cucumbers. I make cheese just for the fun of it, and Rochefort is a lot cheaper to make then buy.
Well let's not forget that 80% of the people who get the virus have very mild reactions to it...so I would think there would still be people around to man those power grids...don't you think? Your scenario is totally unrealistic and like I said...fueling the hysteria around toilet paper stocking up.
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Well let's not forget that 80% of the people who get the virus have very mild reactions to it...so I would think there would still be people around to man those power grids...don't you think? Your scenario is totally unrealistic and like I said...fueling the hysteria around toilet paper stocking up.
Yes, I completely agree that it is totally unlikely this will shut down society. I am not one of those crazy people out there right now buying stuff up like toilet paper. But there are obviously a lot of people buying into just that. My wife just got off a business call and there were people on it who think this is going to last for months. ???
All I am saying is that if you are in a panic and actually think the world is shutting down, hoarding meat is a bad idea! Unless you know how to salt and cure it, you're screwed when the power grid shuts off, which I dont think is going to happen here. Although in CA, it's starting to become common practice.
If we were really in a society shutting down scenario (which we are not), may advice is stop, think and dont buy stuff that can go bad without refrigeration or proper alternate food storage knowledge.
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Besides all the real problems, now there are hoax information releases too, https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/12/21177262/coronavirus-tip-fake-list-stanford-hoax-covid-19 (https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/12/21177262/coronavirus-tip-fake-list-stanford-hoax-covid-19). Good thing there is enough real media left to police this nonsense. :)
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It's analog technology, and, as good as a Copel shutter is, living with the speeds being slightly off is part of the deal. . . .
This kind of knowledgeable discussion related to photography is completely out-of-place in this thread. Can we please just confine ourselves to rampant speculation and unsupported opinions?
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As I posted, I do seem to have it.
Sorry to hear that; I overlooked some of the postings- this one!
Wish you a quick recovery; eat healthy and sleep well!
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Is it?
I currently have a Walgreens digital thermometer that I brought with me from the States. No two readings are ever the same, and the difference can be several points apart.
So, a question: what is currently the most precise thermometer on the market, within a reasonable price range?
What if it is accurate and it's your body temperature that keeps changing....? 8)
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What if it is accurate and it's your body temperature that keeps changing....? 8)
This can often be the case....
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Is it?
I currently have a Walgreens digital thermometer that I brought with me from the States. No two readings are ever the same, and the difference can be several points apart.
So, a question: what is currently the most precise thermometer on the market, within a reasonable price range?
In Serbia you use Celsius, in the US Fahrenheit.
Maybe that's the problem
C/100=(F-32)/180. Easy :-)
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In Serbia you use Celsius, in the US Fahrenheit.
Maybe that's the problem
C/100=(F-32)/180. Easy :-)
Your kidding? Right?
He brought the device from home...and using it elsewhere.
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What if it is accurate and it's your body temperature that keeps changing....? 8)
I hope you will recover soon!
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Regarding CF's, people say it's more of a problem with color than BW. I've just started so we'll see how it goes and what else I have to do. With Covid, this is a good time to get out to shoot as you can be safely by yourself breathing fresh uninfected air.
Two things, any neutral density filter, no matter how good and what CFs essentially are, will start to turn red over time. Not too big a deal with black and white. With digital, this is no big deal too since you can correct for this easily in Capture One using the lens cast correction. (I have to do this no matter what, so it is not a big deal.) With film, it would become impossible to fully correct for it. Since a CF graduates from dark in the center to light on the edges, any cast that develops over time will eventually be effecting the color of the film inconstantly.
Second, if the using a CF extends a longer shutter speed to being over a half second, then reciprocity comes into effect. Although reciprocity does effect black and white, it only does so on exposure. On color, it also effects color and what color correct filter you need to use. Now, when shooing with negatives, this not as much as a concern. With shooting color positives, you need to nail the color, and adjusting for reciprocity was a real pain in the a$$.
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I have no idea how they expect elderly, especially those who live alone, to remain in isolation for months.
Hopefully it is not months: China (albeit with a "shock treatment" probably not attainable in freer societies) has got good results with 3-4 weeks. Take care!
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Besides all the real problems, now there are hoax information releases too, https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/12/21177262/coronavirus-tip-fake-list-stanford-hoax-covid-19 (https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/12/21177262/coronavirus-tip-fake-list-stanford-hoax-covid-19). Good thing there is enough real media left to police this nonsense. :)
I read on a news site (Bloomberg?) that there have apparently been some "fake news" and even a hack of the US health service by a "foreign actor," i.e. Russians.m I don't know how to evaluate those reports.
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Your kidding? Right?
Of course ;)
BTW accuracy and precison are not the same
In measurement of a set, accuracy refers to closeness of the measurements to a specific value, while precision refers to the closeness of the measurements to each other.
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You know that Google website Trump pitched at his recent press conference that was suppose to evaluate your symptoms and direct you to a drive through testing facility. Well, it is pie in the sky as there are no drive through test sites and the web site is only for the SF area. What BS. I thought you were suppose to under promise and over deliver.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/us/politics/trump-google-coronavirus.html
Meanwhile, passenger screening for flights from Europe is going along swimmingly.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-health-errors-airports-packed-trump-travel-ban-2020-3
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I am perfectly aware of the concept of flattening the curve, I am just making a different choice between the options. Prolonged flattening will cause much more economic damage and ruined lives.
Ah; your previous comment seemed to imply that the worse economic consequences would be the only ones and that there is no benefit to efforts at flattening the curve, so now we are moving towards reason: both health and economic consequences need to be considered in choosing our approach. (For one thing, each can affect the other badly, so they are not really opposing factors.)
I see errors being made in both directions: some closures (schools, restaurants) are over-shooting or too early relative to what the CDC and WHO have recommended; some governments (China, Italy, USA, etc.; this is not a partisan criticism) have at least initially under-reacted, suppressed or misstated or contradicted the available information, made assertions that are—at minimum—without factual support, and so on.
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Clostridium botulinum is a real thing.
Plus, meat rots a lot faster then people think. Unlike in the walking dead, under the right conditions, your arms, legs and head will rot completely off your body in as little as 5 days.
Clostridium botulinum is an anerobic microorganism and only a worry with canned foods that were improperly processed. You are correct about meat getting infected quite rapidly but botulism poisoning is the one thing you don't have to worry about.
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Of course ;)
BTW accuracy and precison are not the same
In measurement of a set, accuracy refers to closeness of the measurements to a specific value, while precision refers to the closeness of the measurements to each other.
Man, you know when it is appropriate to joke and hair-split.
I simply want a thermometer that doesn't show dramatically different results within seconds of each measurement. Especially when that discrepancy is between no fever and light fever. I doubt it is the body temperature that jumps up and down within seconds.
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There is another interesting paper from the Chinese research group in Wuhan. The have been doing some really nice epidemiology on the documented cases from their outbreak. In a pre-print they note, "People with blood group A have a significantly higher risk for acquiring COVID-19 compared with non-A blood groups, whereas blood group O has a significantly lower risk for the infection compared with non-O blood groups." Regardless of you blood type, this requires confirmation.
Alan
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Well let's not forget that 80% of the people who get the virus have very mild reactions to it...so I would think there would still be people around to man those power grids...don't you think?
Agreed: my worst case scenario calculations are less than doubling of the normal death rate, for some months or up to a year (depending on how fast vaccination development and scaling up to mass production go) — and to be heartlessly pragmatic, the deaths will be heavily skewed towards retirees, which would lessen the effect on keeping things functioning.
Still, I am stocking mostly non-perishable ingredients. (And I have gas for the camp stove!)
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Not going to lie, there are bright sides to this.
Every year in Philly we have this service called the Erin Express, which utilizes several yellow school buses to ship in every jack ass in the suburbs around Philly to Center City, starting at 10 AM, to party and destroy the place on Saint Patrick's Day. It is now cancelled. BOOM
We are not going to deal with beer cans and bottles all over, people passed out on the sidewalk at 2 in the afternoon, lovers hooking up and getting more then frisky in broad day light, saplings being uprooted.
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Clostridium botulinum is an anerobic microorganism and only a worry with canned foods that were improperly processed. You are correct about meat getting infected quite rapidly but botulism poisoning is the one thing you don't have to worry about.
Are you talking in general, or during the zombie apocalypse. In the unlikely event of the latter, I would certainly agree and hope for hot humid weather.
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Man, you knows when it is appropriate to joke and hair-split.
I simply want a thermometer that doesn't show dramatically different results within seconds of each measurement. Especially when that discrepancy is between no fever and light fever. I doubt it is the body temperature that jumps up and down within seconds.
You know that thermometer you have is for your butt...not your mouth.
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You know that thermometer you have is for your butt...not your mouth.
How do you know?
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Man, you know when it is appropriate to joke and hair-split.
I simply want a thermometer that doesn't show dramatically different results within seconds of each measurement. Especially when that discrepancy is between no fever and light fever. I doubt it is the body temperature that jumps up and down within seconds.
Sorry about that, Slobodan.
What I stated was so absurd that I thought it was clearly a joke
Apologies
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Man, you know when it is appropriate to joke and hair-split.
I simply want a thermometer that doesn't show dramatically different results within seconds of each measurement. Especially when that discrepancy is between no fever and light fever. I doubt it is the body temperature that jumps up and down within seconds.
I observed also that my digital mouth thermometer shows slightly different results for subsequent measurements.
I would attribute these variances more to the inexactness of the measuring device than to the rapid fluctuations in the body temperature.
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I observed also that my digital mouth thermometer shows slightly different results for subsequent measurements.
I would attribute these variances more to the inexactness of the measuring device than to the rapid fluctuations in the body temperature.
I can tell you it is nearly impossible to get an accurate and precise hygrometer without spending a couple hundred. I would not be surprised if the same thing is true for a medical thermometer.
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I can tell you it is nearly impossible to get an accurate and precise hygrometer without spending a couple hundred. I would not be surprised if the same thing is true for a medical thermometer.
The old mercury based thermometers were very accurate and reliable as long as you didn't drop it.
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Interestingly, I have also an ancient mercury-based thermometer which shows more consistent results.
Mercury thermometer are extremely repeatable and accurate over many years. You could put a working mercury thermometer in a time capsule and bury it for 10,000 years and it would still be working accurately. As long as the glass has not been cracked it will continue to function accurately.
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How do you know?
Try both ends and see what you get.
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Then there's this!
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Try both ends and see what you get.
Some may find it a pleasurable experience.
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I observed also that my digital mouth thermometer shows slightly different results for subsequent measurements.
I would attribute these variances more to the inexactness of the measuring device than to the rapid fluctuations in the body temperature.
I don't intend to turn this into an analog vs. digital debate, but why would you get a digital thermometer over a mercury thermometer? If you get sick, the last thing you would feel up for is running out to the store for batteries.
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Literally what this thread's title says: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/
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Some may find it a pleasurable experience.
Just make sure to get the order right.
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I assume you guys undecided about where to put the thermometer know that before using your instrument you are supposed to shake it violently by wrist movements in order to bring the mercury back down the tube and to room temperature (shake the therm. is what I mean)? Alternatively, or in parallel, you can flick it with the back of your finger. Take care not to break it, though.
I used to have a science department/laboratory thermometer when I was working; it was quite a long thing and far better than those short photography darkroom efforts with blue stuff (coloured alcohol?) moving up and down the pipe. I may have it somewhere, but haven't seen it it years. Last use it had was out on the terrace on very hot days just to discover how wild the day was.
Rob
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The stock market was down 3000 points today. We are now within 300 points of where we were on the day Trump was inaugurated.
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I went out today to pick up a prescription and thought I would stop by the grocery store to pick up a few things. It looked like a swarm of locusts had just gone through. I'll go back when they open at 6:00 am. Hopefully they will have restocked. People are not listening to Trump when he said we don't need to hoard.
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I don't intend to turn this into an analog vs. digital debate, but why would you get a digital thermometer over a mercury thermometer? If you get sick, the last thing you would feel up for is running out to the store for batteries.
Digital is quicker. On my thermometer the battery (for a very infrequent usage) lasted over 10 years.
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I’m 67, and diabetic, my wife 66 and mostly healthy and my 90 yo mother lives with us. She is a cancer survivor. We have been stockpiling for a few weeks And are good for a month or two. Given my compromise and my mothers age, we closed our doors to the world on Friday.
We are fortunate that we have the money to survive this, others will be hard hit. My wife father, 90 lives alone having lost his wife a year ago. He’s not in the best position mentally since the loss but is in good health. He refuses to join us her for the short term. My wife has been visiting him daily when possible since her mother’s death, but is very conflicted, as am I about her continuing that practice now. I’m advocating FaceTime, but there is resistance.
We have no mandatory lockdown yet. Some business is still open but, based on reports, food stores are near empty. No word on resupply. As of today my county has no reported cases. But cases are present in the state and nearby counties.
We had just stared an 11 unit RV project and I have photographed three as of Friday. The next prototype is not due until the end of the month and as of today the plant was still open. I have no idea if they will continue to work and I’ll consider the situation as we get closer to the end of the month. But I’m fully committed to saying no to the work should it be required.
We have long considered retiring and have funds ( dwindling quickly as the markets drop today) and availabe Social Security. I’m reluctant to stop working because I still enjoy it and in physically capable...plus the money is very good for a few months work. Maybe now might be the time.
But...and this is the kicker...none of us knows what the world looks like in a few month. Let’s hope it’s still a world we can still recognize.
Here is hoping everyone here survives this mess. To those of you who are ill, prayers for your swift recovery. Try and stay safe. Despite our many differences we are all still here for a common reason and I hope the best for all of you.
Retiring, if you took up pro photography for the love of it, can come back and bite very hard, and getting back into it pretty damned near impossible. Doing amateur photography is anything but the same buzz; for starters, you lose the satisfaction of being asked to do the gig, a big part of the ego-trip kick.
Quite a balancing act: risk with rewards; glad I didn't have to make the choice for the same reason as troubles you today, though!
Good luck.
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I went out today to pick up a prescription and thought I would stop by the grocery store to pick up a few things. It looked like a swarm of locusts had just gone through. I'll go back when they open at 6:00 am. Hopefully they will have restocked. People are not listening to Trump when he said we don't need to hoard.
Are people listening him anymore, period?
I bet they are listening to the NRA, though.
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You know it's getting interesting when the vegan products start flying off of the shelves!
Just got back from the store and I did not see any rice, beans, chicken, paper products, etc. Not even a loaf of bread to be had, oddly enough though, plenty of flour and yeast. Even with all of this sudden free time on people's hands, the still say screw this baking bread shit.
I mean really, who wants to figure out how proof yeast, knead dough, rise, punch down, shape, re-rise, score and bake. You'd have to be a mad man. Much better to complain about a lack of bread then make it.
I was planning on starting a new wheel of Gouda but felt walking out of the store with 6 gallons of milk would be frowned upon. So I bought 3 gallons and will get the other 3 gallons tomorrow.
Boy oh boy. For a disease where the vast majority not only survive but experience mild symptoms, we sure are going into overdrive.
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I went out today to pick up a prescription and thought I would stop by the grocery store to pick up a few things. It looked like a swarm of locusts had just gone through. I'll go back when they open at 6:00 am. Hopefully they will have restocked. People are not listening to Trump when he said we don't need to hoard.
I was at the shops this morning and again after lunch. Still no paper kitchen rolls, and the Kellogs cornflakes were down to two packets: one, perfect, which I took, and another beaten up and split, which I left sitting where it was. I should be stocked for a few days, now, with the making of four servings of thick soup the programme for tomorrow morning after reading the mail etc. Glad the freezer is roomy.
The Internet is proving a godsend in feeling connected to the world at this moment of crisis.
Rob
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Imperial College London advising UKGOV, just issued reserch note:
“ mitigation won’t work, suppression might “
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
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The town I live in (Gunnison, Colorado) has been the center of a few international media stories for how the Spanish Flu was repelled in 1918.
Well, sadly for us the connected world we live in has made Colorado ski country and specifically my home county one of the early hotbeds of infection this time around.
People who live here like to travel and travelers from elsewhere like to visit.
People are getting sick and the towns are more or less in lockdown (https://www.gunnisoncounty.org/DocumentCenter/View/10208/03162020-Amended-Public-Health-Order-PDF?bidId=). A couple three doors down thinks they have it after visiting New Orleans for Mardi Gras but they can't get tested to be sure. We are bracing for a rough time here for a while.
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So far, in Canada, the only places without any infections are the sparsely populated Northwest Territories and Nunavut.
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I was rather reassured by today's press conference where President Trump, Dr Deborah Birx and Dr Anthony Fauci of the CDC spoke on the same stage, and from the same page. We need this sort of competent, coherent messagings to earn public trust and cooperation with some uncomfortable but hopefully short-term measures. Here is a summary of what they are urging for the next fifteen days:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/03.16.20_coronavirus-guidance_8.5x11_315PM.pdf
P. S. Bad gaffe in my original headline: it is "slow the spread", not "stop the spread".
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Curve Flattening explained
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hks6Nq7g6P4
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I was rather reassured by today's press conference where President Trump, Dr Deborah Birx and Dr Anthony Fauci of the CDC spoke on the same stage, and from the same page. We need this sort of competent, coherent messagings to earn public trust and cooperation with some uncomfortable but hopefully short-term measures. Here is a summary of what they are urging for the next fifteen days:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/03.16.20_coronavirus-guidance_8.5x11_315PM.pdf
P. S. Bad gaffe in my original headline: it is "slow the spread", not "stop the spread".
isn't that the same guy who a few days ago said from the podium that tis will just blow over, go to work and warm weather will make it go away?
well I am glad we have coherent messaging now...that will earn public trust!
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isn't that the same guy who a few days ago said from the podium that tis will just blow over, go to work and warm weather will make it go away?
well I am glad we have coherent messaging now...that will earn public trust!
Yep...right until the tweets that contradict everything that was said...business as usual.
In a time of crisis, clear consistent messages goes a long way of reassuring the ones in charge know what they are doing.
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Yep...right until the tweets that contradict everything that was said...business as usual.
In a time of crisis, clear consistent messages goes a long way of reassuring the ones in charge know what they are doing.
a clear 10 out of 10....maybe even a tremendous 10
the clear and consistent messages were clear and consistent 2 weeks ago from all over the world
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My post about 'behind the counter' availability came from drug safety experts during our yearly Drug Induced Liver Injury workshops that we were coordinating with the US FDA and academic researchers. There are some countries where it is behind the counter and your experience points that this is not universal. Products containing pseudoephedrine were moved behind the counter here in the US because the compound is easily converted into crystal meth a la 'Breaking Bad' One can only purchase a limited supply an in order to acquire the necessary amount to do what Walter White did, one would have to visit lots of pharmacies.
Some drugs that are OTC here in the US are not available unless by Rx in other countries. When we were in Ireland several years ago, my wife was running low on naproxen. I went across the street to a pharmacy in Galway and didn't see any on the shelf. The pharmacist said it was Rx only.
The point about acetaminophen is that there are tragedies occuring all the time here in the US. You may cavalierly believe that its safe and let's not worry. During our DILI workshops we covered a lot of problem areas, including a mother who bought the wrong strength drops to administer to her infant. There are case records also of patients going into liver failure from taking both pills and elixirs containing acetaminophen and in inadvertently over dosing.
This is it for me regarding this topic.
Like most other drugs things can go bad if you don’t take them as you should. There will always be people who don’t bother reading the label or talking to the pharmacist/ physician.
All said and done, when you take into account the huge number of people using it, acetaminophen has a pretty good safety profile.
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Chloroquine has a pretty bad side effect profile which is why it is not used as a Malaria prophylactic any longer. We'll see if there is any positive clinical data. Redesivir is a difficult molecule to synthesize at scale and as I noted is an infusion drug. Still it could prove useful for acute cases. There are multiple clinical trials going on in China with combinations of products. One hopes that the data will be expeditiously published. I presume that the same thing will be done at US teaching hospitals as case loads increase. It would be good to test out biologicals that affect the cytokine pathways as these seem to be affected in the worst cases.
The first vaccine will go into trials at Kaiser Permanente in Seattle today according to reports. It's one of the new gene based vaccines produced by Moderna. We really will need good safety and potency data as quickly as possible. There's still going to be the issue of how many people ultimately to vaccinate since the majority of patients only get mild symptoms.
I wouldn’t use it for milder cases and it’s not recommended anyway, the option was for intensive care patients. When you reach that point the side effects are not that bad in comparison, not worse than many drugs that we use.
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The hospitals are also starting to be in lock down, none to minimal visitors.
The testing in Michigan still takes appallingly long, had a test send Fri afternoon and yet to come back Mon noon.
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I went to our city's largest supermarket Monday night -- normal hours are from 6 a.m. to midnight -- and found that it had closed at 9 p.m. because, according to an employee who was standing outside smoking a cigarette, of the corona virus. That strikes me as exactly backwards. People have to eat, they have to go to the supermarket, so instead of restricting hours, they should extend them, to spread the crowd, rather than compress it. If you're going to have 2,000 customers a day, do you really want to squeeze them into a shorter time period, with more people in the store all at once, or spread them? Apparently, the supermarket wizards disagree with my assessment.
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Have you read none of the medical research and mathematical modeling on the benefits of flattening the curve, or are you just choosing to ignore it, perhaps deferring to some other (non-medical) authority that you trust more? Maybe you are right and the medical/epidemiology research community as a whole is wrong, but I severely doubt it.
The US has about 100,000 IC beds and 60,000 to 160,000 ventilators (depending on which ones are counted as usable [1]). Several patients can be served in rotation with one ventilator. Data I linked to above [2] shows that it is highly likely that there will be in total far more cases needing such facilities over the next year or so: 50-fold in the case of IC cases vs IC beds. Evidence from Italy already indicates that if handled badly leading to a short intense curve, peak demand will greatly exceed supply; and the death toll got far worse there today, so the peak is yet to come (the daily death toll is now far higher than for seasonal flu).
If for example the case load outstrips medical capacity by 10:1, potentially 90% of severe case die "avoidably" for lack of adequate treatment. spread the peak five-fold and the overload is down to 2:1, and the "avoidable" death toll during the longe, wider peak down to about 50%; spread it ten-fold, and maybe everyone who needs such care has a good chance of getting it. And China is achieving peak reduction by large factors, as seen in sources I cite above.
Some more discussion and facts:
[1] http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/resources/COVID-19/200214-VentilatorAvailability-factsheet.pdf
[2] https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
[3] http://www.aast.org/GeneralInformation/mechanicalventilation.aspx (which says that about half of IC cases need ventilation, and so for COVID-19 whose main threat is respiratory it is probably over 50%)
[4] https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-intensive-care-unit-shortages-of-ventilators-staff-space-2020-3
[5] https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/13/coronavirus-numbers-we-really-should-be-worried-about/
Those 100k beds are a stretched capacity, usually the numbers are much less.
I keep hearing this idea that if we get enough ventilators all is good and there are several points that I want to make.
- some people will still die regardless if you have a vent available
- 2 people per vent is more of a short term emergency, the logistics are not that simple
- and most importantly, who’s going to take care of those patients? Intubating them is not that hard and it doesn’t really fix much, they still require ICU care and as someone said “critical care nurses don’t grow on trees”. Neither do the respiratory therapists and critical care physicians. Quality ICU care is dependent on low staffing ratios and some medical personal will get sick making those numbers even smaller.
If you watch some chinese videos and the level of protection they had, because unfortunately it does seem to aerosolize quite easily with various procedures, you realize that we will have a very hard time to keep up with the required protective equipment needs.
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As from last night, Serbia is in a state of emergency, after only 48 confirmed cases. Borders closed, schools, kindergartens, gyms, etc. closed through the rest of the year. Restaurants and bars open till 8pm. No one over 65 shall be on the streets or risk a 3-year jail sentence. Police and military would patrol the streets. I am in a self-quarantine, day 6, with some sort of the flu or even corona. Tired of sleeping all day, all night. I have no idea how they expect elderly, especially those who live alone, to remain in isolation for months.
Best of luck with whatever you caught. Hopefully, you have a runny nose 😉 as that seems to be a contra-indication for this corona virus.
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Best of luck with whatever you caught. Hopefully, you have a runny nose 😉 as that seems to be a contra-indication for this corona virus.
Thanks, and no, it is quite dry :(
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Thanks, and no, it is quite dry :(
Silly question: have you been seen by a doctor about this?
Rob
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Silly question: have you been seen by a doctor about this?...
No. The current advice is NOT to go to see anyone, but to self isolate and weather the storm. If you suspect corona, they will come to you, in special gear, to take a swab. Even if tested positive, you won't be admitted to a hospital unless you require intensive care.
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There is over reaction and then Damn.
Many states are implementing closure for all sit down patrons of bars and restaurants for about 15 days. A few for three weeks, which I think is a little too long to commit to right now. But Denver is having its bars and restaurants stay closed until May 11. What? ???
Unless there is a nation wide moratorium on commercial mortgage and rent payments, the entirety of Denver's restaurant scene will be out of business by then. I've worked in the industry for a number of years, and unless people (and I mean young healthy people) really start dropping like flies, your looking at a full sector of Denver's economy loosing all trust in government (owners and workers) and will more then likely start operating with a big middle finger aimed at city hall.
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I went to our city's largest supermarket Monday night -- normal hours are from 6 a.m. to midnight -- and found that it had closed at 9 p.m. because, according to an employee who was standing outside smoking a cigarette, of the corona virus. That strikes me as exactly backwards. People have to eat, they have to go to the supermarket, so instead of restricting hours, they should extend them, to spread the crowd, rather than compress it. If you're going to have 2,000 customers a day, do you really want to squeeze them into a shorter time period, with more people in the store all at once, or spread them? Apparently, the supermarket wizards disagree with my assessment.
This seems to be widespread. Friends in Toronto are reporting the same. I haven't noticed this in my local stores here in Ottawa yet. On the face of it, it appears to be a bizarre policy and I'd be interested to hear an explanation too.
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No. The current advice is NOT to go to see anyone, but to self isolate and weather the storm. If you suspect corona, they will come to you, in special gear, to take a swab. Even if tested positive, you won't be admitted to a hospital unless you require intensive care.
Some are more equal than others: military in masks and police not. Wot?
Stay warm, because my mother used to say that the cold kills the old. She made 93 or thereabouts, so perhaps she knew a thing or two. I'm not suggesting you're old, because to me you're still young. I owe that conceit to myself; it's my secret for keeping a good skin.
;-)
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I went to our city's largest supermarket Monday night -- normal hours are from 6 a.m. to midnight -- and found that it had closed at 9 p.m. because, according to an employee who was standing outside smoking a cigarette, of the corona virus. That strikes me as exactly backwards. People have to eat, they have to go to the supermarket, so instead of restricting hours, they should extend them, to spread the crowd, rather than compress it. If you're going to have 2,000 customers a day, do you really want to squeeze them into a shorter time period, with more people in the store all at once, or spread them? Apparently, the supermarket wizards disagree with my assessment.
Some chains have announced closing at 9PM to restock shelves. I went to the local Safeway this morning at 7AM. Few people picking stuff up. No meat or poultry at all. Packaged fresh lettuce was all gone but most other produce was there. I did get a pack of Hebrew National hot dogs but they didn't have hot dog buns. Still no toilet paper (we still have some). Just as I was leaving I saw a large semi pulling into the loading dock, presumably with stuff for re-stock. I then went to our Whole Foods at 7:30. Lots of people shopping and they were just unloading packaged poultry in bulk. Meat counter did not have chopped meat but had lots of other choices so I picked up lamb chops. No pasta at all but not a problem as I make my own.
I think with so many people furloughed from work in our area that people can spread out their shopping. Whole Foods hours are 7am to 10pm; Safeway is open 24 hours.
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A bit of good news from China. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 discusses the impact of temperature and humidity on the transmission of COVID-19 (you can download the full paper but I'm posting the abstract). We'll see if this holds up as the weather warms up.
Abstract: This paper investigates how air temperature and humidity influence the transmission of COVID-19. After estimating the serial interval of COVID-19 from 105 pairs of the virus carrier and the infected, we calculate the daily effective reproductive number, R, for each of all 100 Chinese cities with more than 40 cases. Using the daily R values from January 21 to 23, 2020 as proxies of non-intervened transmission intensity, we find, under a linear regression framework for 100 Chinese cities, high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of cities. One degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively. This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19.
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I went to our city's largest supermarket Monday night -- normal hours are from 6 a.m. to midnight -- and found that it had closed at 9 p.m. because, according to an employee who was standing outside smoking a cigarette, of the corona virus. That strikes me as exactly backwards. People have to eat, they have to go to the supermarket, so instead of restricting hours, they should extend them, to spread the crowd, rather than compress it. If you're going to have 2,000 customers a day, do you really want to squeeze them into a shorter time period, with more people in the store all at once, or spread them? Apparently, the supermarket wizards disagree with my assessment.
Many close down early so they can do a deep disinfecting of the entire store.
There are also grocery stores out there that have a seniors only hour, usually first thing in the morning when seniors are the only shoppers allowed in the store. Great idea which reduces the chances of infection to those most vulnerable.
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Many close down early so they can do a deep disinfecting of the entire store.
Ah; that perhaps works well with something else being done at some supermarkets: the first hour after opening for older customers only, to let them stay away from the bigger crowds. The also get first access to the freshly cleaned store.
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Many close down early so they can do a deep disinfecting of the entire store.
There are also grocery stores out there that have a seniors only hour, usually first thing in the morning when seniors are the only shoppers allowed in the store. Great idea which reduces the chances of infection to those most vulnerable.
A friend in Toronto showing up for work saw several transport trucks behind the local Walmart, still unloading. They're normally gone by then. He asked and the store people told him that they have a shortage of staff so unloading is taking longer. Maybe some places are reducing shopping hours because of staff availability. It may be difficult to make general statements, too many variables.
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There is over reaction and then Damn.
Many states are implementing closure for all sit down patrons of bars and restaurants for about 15 days. A few for three weeks, which I think is a little too long to commit to right now. But Denver is having its bars and restaurants stay closed until May 11. What? ???
... your looking at a full sector of Denver's economy loosing all trust in government (owners and workers) and will more then likely start operating with a big middle finger aimed at city hall.
I agree: my plan is to follow the latest recommendations, but no more. In particular, look at the last line of the 15 day plan at https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/03.16.20_coronavirus-guidance_8.5x11_315PM.pdf which recommends extra steps like closing bars, restaurants and gyms only in regions with active community spread, not nationwide. AFAIK, only a half dozen cities have reached "community spread" status, and not mine, so I am very happy to help support restaurant owners and employees.
And I went to the gym the morning.
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I agree: my plan is to follow the latest recommendations, but no more. In particular, look at the last line of the 15 day plan at https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/03.16.20_coronavirus-guidance_8.5x11_315PM.pdf which recommends extra steps like closing bars, restaurants and gyms only in regions with active community spread, not nationwide. AFAIK, only a half dozen cities have reached "community spread" status, and not mine, so I am very happy to help support restaurant owners and employees.
And I went to the gym the morning.
I'm not going to lie, I think a big part of this is due to TDS.
Yes, I will agree that with how Trump has been directly handling this and what he has been saying has been awful. He really needs to know when to listen to his PR team. However, many of the actions taken have been on point.
But I think a lot of the extended shut downs are politicians trying to one up him and everyone else to gain political points later on. Normally this would work since there would be no counterfactual to what happened. Meaning if deaths are low, a politician can say that they did what we needed and that is why deaths are low.
In this case though, England is screwing that up. If in England, the death rates are the same or only slightly higher, that would be bad news for every politician that goes extreme on this. England would provide that counterfactual. However, if England's death rate is far and above ours, it would certainly help those who go overboard.
IMHO, I feel England's tactic is the better route, but time will tell.
On top of that, how do you really enforce this? What if someone orders take out, shows up, it's not finished and asks to have a drink at the bar while he waits? This will of course quickly turn into the restaurant just serving normal customers. Are we really going to start policing all restaurants and bars to see if they are only serving take out? I give this two weeks before it starts to turn back towards operations at normal.
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No. The current advice is NOT to go to see anyone, but to self isolate and weather the storm. If you suspect corona, they will come to you, in special gear, to take a swab. Even if tested positive, you won't be admitted to a hospital unless you require intensive care.
Sending good thoughts and wishes for continued sorta ok, not too bad health :)
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There is over reaction and then Damn.
Many states are implementing closure for all sit down patrons of bars and restaurants for about 15 days. A few for three weeks, which I think is a little too long to commit to right now. But Denver is having its bars and restaurants stay closed until May 11. What? ???
Unless there is a nation wide moratorium on commercial mortgage and rent payments, the entirety of Denver's restaurant scene will be out of business by then. I've worked in the industry for a number of years, and unless people (and I mean young healthy people) really start dropping like flies, your looking at a full sector of Denver's economy loosing all trust in government (owners and workers) and will more then likely start operating with a big middle finger aimed at city hall.
I agree it sucks and I expect there will be some kind of government relief package but I think it is the right thing to do from a public health standpoint.
I feel like a big disruptive move like this actually improves my trust in government agencies because they are actually trying to do something to save people over making money. That seems like proper prioritization to me.
Look at how not doing something like this soon enough has impacted Italy.
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I agree: my plan is to follow the latest recommendations, but no more. In particular, look at the last line of the 15 day plan at https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/03.16.20_coronavirus-guidance_8.5x11_315PM.pdf which recommends extra steps like closing bars, restaurants and gyms only in regions with active community spread, not nationwide. AFAIK, only a half dozen cities have reached "community spread" status, and not mine, so I am very happy to help support restaurant owners and employees.
And I went to the gym the morning.
State of Maryland locked everything down yesterday. Ohio did this as well. Six counties in the bay area of CA where our daughter lives have also done this. What is weird about that one is that our daughter is a music therapist at UCSF Childrens Hospital (she lives in Oakland) and as of late yesterday was still deemed to be essential person and has to report for work. Her workload is curtailed because some of the patients are in quarantine because of COVID and only essential medical personnel can go in those rooms. Visits by family members are restricted to one member and they have to scrub and gown up.
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I agree it sucks and I expect there will be some kind of government relief package but I think it is the right thing to do from a public health standpoint.
I feel like a big disruptive move like this actually improves my trust in government agencies because they are actually trying to do something to save people over making money. That seems like proper prioritization to me.
Look at how not doing something like this soon enough has impacted Italy.
True on the Italy comment.
But the question is, is some of this a huge over reaction? England will let us know, and if so, it will be a big flop for all those who did over react.
Just think about, geographic sections of the country could be economically destroyed, and if England provides that counterfactual, that will have consequence that no politician can argue against. Time will tell.
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True on the Italy comment.
But the question is, is some of this a huge over reaction? England will let us know, and if so, it will be a big flop for all those who did over react.
Just think about, geographic sections of the country could be economically destroyed, and if England provides that counterfactual, that will have consequence that no politician can argue against. Time will tell.
Much depends on the infection and mortality data from the next several weeks. IMO, most of the countries in Europe that have adopted strict criteria did so because they did not want a repeat of Italy who are experiencing the highest mortality based on WHO statistics. What you are seeing is the precautionary principle being carried out to an extreme. Is this the right policy? I don't know. I have a long background in the pharma industry and before that biomedical research and I think the short term disruption is worth it. The bigger policy question is who gets financial assistance going forward. We have already seen the airline industry request a large amount of money. The shale oil industry in the US will likely collapse, not because of COVID but because of the ultra-low world oil price brought about by Saudi Arabia. A lot of the companies in that sector are highly leveraged and cannot meet debt payments because they cannot make a profit as prices are about $30/barrel below the break even point.
There needs to be zero interest long term loans from the government for all the small businesses that are impacted by the various shutdowns as their cash flows right now are ZERO and they still have carrying costs. I'll leave it to the economists to discuss policy as I don't understand some of what is being argued for. You can have a lot of money right now but there is now where to spend it as lots of retailers are shuttered other than via electronic ordering.
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Statistics. Hope. https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3800632,00.html
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True on the Italy comment.
But the question is, is some of this a huge over reaction? England will let us know, and if so, it will be a big flop for all those who did over react.
Just think about, geographic sections of the country could be economically destroyed, and if England provides that counterfactual, that will have consequence that no politician can argue against. Time will tell.
I'm told that that person Trump tried to buy CureVac to get the exclusive rights for a vaccine being developed by the Germans.
They seem to have said "NO", the vaccine should be for everybody.
I know, "fake news". But I don't read "tweets".
It looks like "kicking butts" works in both ways.
There is no little enemy...
Maybe there is a God after all
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True on the Italy comment.
But the question is, is some of this a huge over reaction? England will let us know, and if so, it will be a big flop for all those who did over react.
Just think about, geographic sections of the country could be economically destroyed, and if England provides that counterfactual, that will have consequence that no politician can argue against. Time will tell.
We may never know. If it's the right amount of reaction and the virus spread is slowed, saving lives, naysayers will call it an overreaction.
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I'm told that that person Trump tried to buy CureVac to get the exclusive rights for a vaccine being developed by the Germans.
They seem to have said "NO", the vaccine should be for everybody.
I know, "fake news". But I don't read "tweets".
The German company CureVac stated they were never approached by anyone from the US. this really is Fake News.
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We may never know. If it's the right amount of reaction and the virus spread is slowed, saving lives, naysayers will call it an overreaction.
That reminds me a little of the millennium bug. Over the years, I've read comments from people who didn't know what they were talking about that the millennium bug thing was a hoax because no airplanes crashed at midnight. You carefully explain to them that many companies throughout the world audited and repaired their software in 1998 and 1999 but I bet that fell largely on deaf ears. Part of trouble was that the whole airplanes crashing thing was utter bs in the first place, so the fact that it didn't happen meant nothing one way or the other.
Keeping the peak infection rate down, aside from anything regarding Covid-19 patients themselves, means that the medical establishment can keep working on chemo and heart attack patients, etc.. The fact that some people don't understand this and whine and complain about some actions is just noise. It's a matter of keeping it all reasonable, something that the interweb isn't very good at.
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That reminds me a little of the millennium bug. Over the years, I've read comments from people who didn't know what they were talking about that the millennium bug thing was a hoax because no airplanes crashed at midnight. You carefully explain to them that many companies throughout the world audited and repaired their software in 1998 and 1999 but I bet that fell largely on deaf ears. Part of trouble was that the whole airplanes crashing thing was utter bs in the first place, so the fact that it didn't happen meant nothing one way or the other.
Keeping the peak infection rate down, aside from anything regarding Covid-19 patients themselves, means that the medical establishment can keep working on chemo and heart attack patients, etc.. The fact that some people don't understand this and whine and complain about some actions is just noise. It's a matter of keeping it all reasonable, something that the interweb isn't very good at.
Good analogy. I was an IT director at the time and it was stressful! We worked for two years patching, replacing, and auditing while management complained about costs and when only one (fairly minor) system broke they were like "what was all that fuss about then?".
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I'm told that that person Trump tried to buy CureVac to get the exclusive rights for a vaccine being developed by the Germans.
They seem to have said "NO", the vaccine should be for everybody.
I know, "fake news". But I don't read "tweets".
It looks like "kicking butts" works in both ways.
There is no little enemy...
Maybe there is a God after all
What's your point?
Personally I don't think it is a good idea since the time required to be in transit to get the scientists and equipment here is not worth the loss. But I dont think he did this out of a lets only make this available for the USA.
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I'm going to do what they ask, self-distance. Wash my hands, don't touch my face. We can ride out a couple of weeks and then they can see where we are. Be sensible and don't put others at risk. Take care of your neighbors.
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Good analogy. I was an IT director at the time and it was stressful! We worked for two years patching, replacing, and auditing while management complained about costs and when only one (fairly minor) system broke they were like "what was all that fuss about then?".
Same old same old. :)
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We may never know. If it's the right amount of reaction and the virus spread is slowed, saving lives, naysayers will call it an overreaction.
I guess you missed my post on England's response doing just that, showing us if this is an over reaction or not.
For our European members here, I think it is important to point out that in the USA people have a deep-seeded hatrid of government, or at least listening to government compared to mainland Europeans. This is important to keep in mind when looking at the USA and how we respond. Good or bad, this will be a key factor in what happens here.
Like I said before, I give this two weeks until people start saying, "F#%& the government and their decisions, I'm going out and doing what I want," while telling every politician their number one with a middle finger. It's going to happen. Although I am relatively calm, others I know are loosing their damn minds. It's only a matter of time before they boil over.
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What's your point?
Personally I don't think it is a good idea since the time required to be in transit to get the scientists and equipment here is not worth the loss. But I dont think he did this out of a lets only make this available for the USA.
Why should be there a point, sir?
Just information.
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The German company CureVac stated they were never approached by anyone from the US. this really is Fake News.
Maybe you are right.
We may never know the truth.
But it is plausible.
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Maybe you are right.
We may never know the truth.
But it is plausible.
Maybe, probably not. We may never know.
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No. The current advice is NOT to go to see anyone, but to self isolate and weather the storm. If you suspect corona, they will come to you, in special gear, to take a swab. Even if tested positive, you won't be admitted to a hospital unless you require intensive care.
Get well quick. Did they send anyone over?
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No. The current advice is NOT to go to see anyone, but to self isolate and weather the storm. If you suspect corona, they will come to you, in special gear, to take a swab. Even if tested positive, you won't be admitted to a hospital unless you require intensive care.
Get well quick. Did they send anyone over?There is over reaction and then Damn.
Many states are implementing closure for all sit down patrons of bars and restaurants for about 15 days. A few for three weeks, which I think is a little too long to commit to right now. But Denver is having its bars and restaurants stay closed until May 11. What? ???
Unless there is a nation wide moratorium on commercial mortgage and rent payments, the entirety of Denver's restaurant scene will be out of business by then. I've worked in the industry for a number of years, and unless people (and I mean young healthy people) really start dropping like flies, your looking at a full sector of Denver's economy loosing all trust in government (owners and workers) and will more then likely start operating with a big middle finger aimed at city hall.
Costs goes all ways. Landlords have to pay mortgages, taxes, service people, etc. By waiving rents, that might bankrupt the landlord. If the economy takes such a hit, then landlords will have to accept some non payments. Otherwise, if the restaurant goes bust if they force payment, they won;t have anyone to take their place. Government shouldn't get involved. Let owners and renters work it out by negotiating with each other. Each situation is different so a blanket prescription is not the way to do it. Government isn't the answer. Stick to your beliefs Joe. Let free markets work.
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A bit of good news from China. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 discusses the impact of temperature and humidity on the transmission of COVID-19 (you can download the full paper but I'm posting the abstract). We'll see if this holds up as the weather warms up.
Abstract: This paper investigates how air temperature and humidity influence the transmission of COVID-19. After estimating the serial interval of COVID-19 from 105 pairs of the virus carrier and the infected, we calculate the daily effective reproductive number, R, for each of all 100 Chinese cities with more than 40 cases. Using the daily R values from January 21 to 23, 2020 as proxies of non-intervened transmission intensity, we find, under a linear regression framework for 100 Chinese cities, high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of cities. One degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively. This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19.
So slowing down the infection rate (flattening the curve) is good advice. That's good news.
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Good analogy. I was an IT director at the time and it was stressful! We worked for two years patching, replacing, and auditing while management complained about costs and when only one (fairly minor) system broke they were like "what was all that fuss about then?".
We had an industry wide team in the pharma sector that looked at this as well. So many processes were computer controlled with operating systems that only used two digit year values. We often forget how memory in computer systems had to be carefully controlled and that even saving space by using shorter dates was the general rule. Companies ended up doing audits and revalidation of systems and no problems occurred.
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Government shouldn't get involved. Let owners and renters work it out by negotiating with each other. Each situation is different so a blanket prescription is not the way to do it. Government isn't the answer. Stick to your beliefs Joe. Let free markets work.
The government is as of this moment considering cash payments to Americans as a possibility. NY Times Link (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/world/coronavirus-news.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage)
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Much depends on the infection and mortality data from the next several weeks. IMO, most of the countries in Europe that have adopted strict criteria did so because they did not want a repeat of Italy who are experiencing the highest mortality based on WHO statistics. What you are seeing is the precautionary principle being carried out to an extreme. Is this the right policy? I don't know. I have a long background in the pharma industry and before that biomedical research and I think the short term disruption is worth it. The bigger policy question is who gets financial assistance going forward. We have already seen the airline industry request a large amount of money. The shale oil industry in the US will likely collapse, not because of COVID but because of the ultra-low world oil price brought about by Saudi Arabia. A lot of the companies in that sector are highly leveraged and cannot meet debt payments because they cannot make a profit as prices are about $30/barrel below the break even point.
There needs to be zero interest long term loans from the government for all the small businesses that are impacted by the various shutdowns as their cash flows right now are ZERO and they still have carrying costs. I'll leave it to the economists to discuss policy as I don't understand some of what is being argued for. You can have a lot of money right now but there is now where to spend it as lots of retailers are shuttered other than via electronic ordering.
The Fed is starting another QE printing press operation. Rates dropped to 0%. Trump asks for $850 billion. Here we go again. This time there's going to be huge inflation. The currency is going to crater making everyone's savings and assets worth half. The stock market and real estate market are going to crater. If this thing recurs next year in a different strain, forget about it. Gee I hope I'm wrong.
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Good analogy. I was an IT director at the time and it was stressful! We worked for two years patching, replacing, and auditing while management complained about costs and when only one (fairly minor) system broke they were like "what was all that fuss about then?".
No good deed goes unpunished.
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Good analogy. I was an IT director at the time and it was stressful! We worked for two years patching, replacing, and auditing while management complained about costs and when only one (fairly minor) system broke they were like "what was all that fuss about then?".
No good deed goes unpunished.I'm going to do what they ask, self-distance. Wash my hands, don't touch my face. We can ride out a couple of weeks and then they can see where we are. Be sensible and don't put others at risk. Take care of your neighbors.
My wife and I are self-isolating. I told her not to visit neighbors as that might spread the virus. Of course, if there's an emergency, that's another matter.
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We had an industry wide team in the pharma sector that looked at this as well. So many processes were computer controlled with operating systems that only used two digit year values. We often forget how memory in computer systems had to be carefully controlled and that even saving space by using shorter dates was the general rule. Companies ended up doing audits and revalidation of systems and no problems occurred.
My firm did Building Automation control of office and other buildings. Our systems controlled HVAC, lights and other building systems and applied energy management algorithms. I faked dates before 2K over weekends when there were no building occupancy in all the systems to see what would happen when the actual 2K occured. Fortunately, no problems. We went through the actual date without skipping a beat.
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Why should be there a point, sir?
Just information.
You are trying to insinuate through an undisclosed source (which they all seem to be nowadays) that Trump wants the vaccine so that one but Americans have access to it. I dont believe this story. There is a lot of purposeful misinformation from the media with the sole intent to damage Trump going around. Just this morning the NYTs purposely took out of context a quote from Trump's call with the state governors to try and imply the federal government is leaving the states out to dry on this.
This was clearly false if you listened to the entire interview. The press is really showing their inherent bias against the president and republicans in general here, and it is disgusting.
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The press is really showing their inherent bias against the president and republicans in general here, and it is disgusting.
So true. The president and "republicans in general" are the real victims here.
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So true. The president and "republicans in general" are the real victims here.
LOL James.
If you cant agree that the story the NYTs ran this morning is a blanant example of a purposely mis-guiding media, then you're like all three monkey's, covering your eyes, ears and mouth at the same time.
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I guess you missed my post on England's response doing just that, showing us if this is an over reaction or not.
For our European members here, I think it is important to point out that in the USA people have a deep-seeded hatrid of government, or at least listening to government compared to mainland Europeans. This is important to keep in mind when looking at the USA and how we respond. Good or bad, this will be a key factor in what happens here.
Like I said before, I give this two weeks until people start saying, "F#%& the government and their decisions, I'm going out and doing what I want," while telling every politician their number one with a middle finger. It's going to happen. Although I am relatively calm, others I know are loosing their damn minds. It's only a matter of time before they boil over.
Why have people in the USA such a hatred of their governments? I thought that they believed every word that fell from the lips of the various great leaders; if not, why elect them in the first place? Hoof the buggers out and bring in technocrats who may understand reality as distinct from political vote hunting.
If you are right, and Americans do turn out to be a bunch of lawbreaking nutters ignoring all the common-interest emergency rules, won't you all be delighted there are so many guns in their hands! Oh, didn't somebody on LuLa once suggest that the free markets will solve everything the guns were to protect the "American people" from the laws and powers of their own governments?
:-)
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Why have people in the USA such a hatred of their governments? I thought that they believed every word that fell from the lips of the various great leaders; if not, why elect them in the first place? Hoof the buggers out and bring in technocrats who may understand reality as distinct from political vote hunting.
If you are right, and Americans do turn out to be a bunch of lawbreaking nutters ignoring all the common-interest emergency rules, won't you all be delighted there are so many guns in their hands! Oh, didn't somebody on LuLa once suggest that the free markets will solve everything the guns were to protect the "American people" from the laws and powers of their own governments?
:-)
Our founding involved violently revolting against our government and the founding fathers purposely instilled this sentiment into our two most important documents, the Declaration of Independence and the Bill of Rights.
It's bread into us, whether good or bad.
FYI, when I write these things, I am just taking into account the natural tendency of this country, to revolt. I, myself, am not calling for allowing people to do whatever they want currently.
I feel that two weeks is an appropriate amount of time for this, and then to make necessary modifications so the economy does not tank. Such as, allow economic activity of all sorts to start up again while taking additional measures to care for the sick and elderly.
If the current state of things are tried to be implemented for more then two, at most three, weeks, I'm waiving my middle finger at city hall, end of story. Unless people start dropping like flies from this, it is going to universally happen.
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LOL James.
If you cant agree that the story the NYTs ran this morning is a blanant example of a purposely mis-guiding media, then you're like all three monkey's, covering your eyes, ears and mouth at the same time.
Oh, no I agree completely. It's unacceptable when any media outlet assumes the worst about a President that is as forthright, honest, concise and magnanimous as Donald J. Trump. It's just so gosh darn unfair.
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Oh, no I agree completely. It's unacceptable when any media outlet assumes the worst about a President that is as forthright, honest, concise and magnanimous as Donald J. Trump. It's just so gosh darn unfair.
Thanks for being pretentious and partisan, and showing your true colors. Either that or you're being foolish to actually suggest Trump handled the PR of this well. He did not.
But for the Grey Lady to take what he said out of context and purposely manipulate it for a political score for the Dems is unacceptable. And for you to go along with it shows exactly how partisan you are being as well.
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...you're being foolish to actually suggest Trump handled the PR of this well. He did not.
That's sort of the Trump administration in a nutshell, amirite?
But for the Grey Lady to take what he said out of context and purposely manipulate it for a political score for the Dems is unacceptable. And for you to go along with it shows exactly how partisan you are being as well.
I'll be serious for a moment...
You're correct, but rightwingers hold traditional media to a standard that "their" (the right wing) favored publications could never, ever, ever, EVER uphold. It would be counter to their entire raison d'être.. So yeah, while I concur that the headline is misleading and I do wish that media like NYT and WaPo were hyper aware of their obligations, especially now, you'll pardon me if my eyes are rolling so far that they're about to pop out of my head when you cast Donald Trump and his current enablers in Congress as victims of any sort.
They just don't like it when their own tactics are used on them.
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Our founding involved violently revolting against our government and the founding fathers purposely instilled this sentiment into our two most important documents, the Declaration of Independence and the Bill of Rights.
It's bread into us, whether good or bad.
FYI, when I write these things, I am just taking into account the natural tendency of this country, to revolt. I, myself, am not calling for allowing people to do whatever they want currently.
I feel that two weeks is an appropriate amount of time for this, and then to make necessary modifications so the economy does not tank. Such as, allow economic activity of all sorts to start up again while taking additional measures to care for the sick and elderly.
If the current state of things are tried to be implemented for more then two, at most three, weeks, I'm waiving my middle finger at city hall, end of story. Unless people start dropping like flies from this, it is going to universally happen.
Maybe the government should have done nothing...dropping like flies would be appropriate.
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That's sort of the Trump administration in a nutshell, amirite?
I'll be serious for a moment...
You're correct, but rightwingers hold traditional media to a standard that "their" (the right wing) favored publications could never, ever, ever, EVER uphold. It would be counter to their entire raison d'être.. So yeah, while I concur that the headline is misleading and I do wish that media like NYT and WaPo were hyper aware of their obligations, especially now, you'll pardon me if my eyes are rolling so far that they're about to pop out of my head when you cast Donald Trump and his current enablers in Congress as victims of any sort.
They just don't like it when their own tactics are used on them.
Thanks for the seriousness.
In a nut shell, I would say Trump's PR process is very much his way or the highway. Sometimes it works, yet leads to inconsistent messaging since he also seems to ad hoc it. This then puts many of his PR people in a hard spot since they cant really answer questions from the press since they dont really know what Trump is thinking.
Certainly beneficial for somethings, like keeping Iran guessing as to how hard we will hit back. In uncertainty, enemies tend to err on the side of caution. Here though, it has been a complete disaster.
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Maybe the government should have done nothing...dropping like flies would be appropriate.
Like Denmark? They are taking a much more hands off approach.
Time will tell.
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I feel that two weeks is an appropriate amount of time for this, and then to make necessary modifications so the economy does not tank. Such as, allow economic activity of all sorts to start up again while taking additional measures to care for the sick and elderly.
If the current state of things are tried to be implemented for more then two, at most three, weeks, I'm waiving my middle finger at city hall, end of story. Unless people start dropping like flies from this, it is going to universally happen.
Tough spot for the local and federal government, if the strict self isolation and businesses closures manage to control the pandemic, they risk being blamed for the economy tanking since they won't have a huge death toll to show. If they are lenient, then they risk having a huge death toll to show.
I think this thing needs to be dealt with extremes measures until it's 100% controlled. This tiny bug doesn't care about the market or people's income. One case left unsupervised could lead up to yet another event, and we haven't event started with this one.
I can assume that the administration has the right people advising on the matter (Trump's mouth aside) and that they know better than the members of a photography forum.
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I'm not sure that the administration and president know more than some of the posters on this forum.
At the current rate of 12,500 new infections and 600 deaths per day, by end of the week we'll have globally 250,000 infections and 10,000 deaths.
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I'm not sure that the administration and president know more than some of the posters on this forum.
At the current rate of 12,500 new infections and 600 deaths per day, by end of the week we'll have globally 250,000 infections and 10,000 deaths.
We should probably take the time to be grateful about a few things. No one is calling this a Chinese, Democrat, or radical left hoax anymore. That's not a small step.
And no, I'm not referring to Trump. I consider him a bit player in this scenario. I don't believe he actually matters much at this point, his opinions on the issue and the opinions of other partisan politicians, are mostly irrelevant. At this point, they're just along for the ride. My feeling is that people know what's important now.
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The coronavirus has sparked the sales of guns and ammo. It is only a matter of time before someone gets shot at the grocery store over a roll of toilet paper. What are these people thinking?
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/gun-sales-rise-coronavirus-fears-trigger-personal-safety-concerns-n1161926
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The coronavirus has sparked the sales of guns and ammo. It is only a matter of time before someone gets shot at the grocery store over a roll of toilet paper. What are these people thinking?
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/gun-sales-rise-coronavirus-fears-trigger-personal-safety-concerns-n1161926
Man what is the deal with toilet paper??
I can think of a million things more useful to have in a lockdown. Makes no sense.
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Man what is the deal with toilet paper??
I can think of a million things more useful to have in a lockdown. Makes no sense.
Dunno, this whole thing gives me the shits.
;-)
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Dunno, this whole thing gives me the shits.
;-)
Lol, yeah that too.
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funny how not too long ago this was all a hoax by the democrats and pointing out the obvious neglect and incompetence of the WH now is political and we should all pull together...
the necessary and drastic measures taken in Europe are possible because people have paid sick leave, healthcare and the government understands that it is more important to financially support the smallest businesses first....the only way to keep the real economy running (or at least limping) along...but of course all that is crazy socialism that just does not work
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Man what is the deal with toilet paper??
Flor de toilette
(https://i.pinimg.com/236x/08/15/a4/0815a4166f68f67017f684d2b4a299c0.jpg)
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I'm not sure that the administration and president know more than some of the posters on this forum.
At the current rate of 12,500 new infections and 600 deaths per day, by end of the week we'll have globally 250,000 infections and 10,000 deaths.
I shudder to think what those numbers would look like if the nations did not take the actions they did.
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We should probably take the time to be grateful about a few things. No one is calling this a Chinese, Democrat, or radical left hoax anymore. That's not a small step.
And no, I'm not referring to Trump. I consider him a bit player in this scenario. I don't believe he actually matters much at this point, his opinions on the issue and the opinions of other partisan politicians, are mostly irrelevant. At this point, they're just along for the ride. My feeling is that people know what's important now.
No one ever did besides the stupid media and theose who unblinkingly believe them. It clearly is Chinese.
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The German company CureVac stated they were never approached by anyone from the US. this really is Fake News.
of course because there is no way trump would do something like this....
not too long ago there was talk that the vaccine would not be free....why should it? if there is a way to make a quick buck! Trump trumps the virus!
the CEO of that small company was removed a day after the meeting in the WH...a very surprising move...
the real problem is here that this does not come as a surprise and if it was true would fall beautifully under the America first and free market ideas held so high by the (thank god) old and getting older who would probably consider it a great move
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Man what is the deal with toilet paper??
I can think of a million things more useful to have in a lockdown. Makes no sense.
Until you are wiping you dirty behind with your left hand...
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That's sort of the Trump administration in a nutshell, amirite?
I'll be serious for a moment...
You're correct, but rightwingers hold traditional media to a standard that "their" (the right wing) favored publications could never, ever, ever, EVER uphold. It would be counter to their entire raison d'être.. So yeah, while I concur that the headline is misleading and I do wish that media like NYT and WaPo were hyper aware of their obligations, especially now, you'll pardon me if my eyes are rolling so far that they're about to pop out of my head when you cast Donald Trump and his current enablers in Congress as victims of any sort.
They just don't like it when their own tactics are used on them.
Thats so much utter Bullsnits its stinking up the entire room. If you actually believe this you are a lost cause.
You don't spend much time listening to the folks on the right getting snitty about Fox News do you? Do you actually even spend any time at all with Fox news or OAN?
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The coronavirus has sparked the sales of guns and ammo. It is only a matter of time before someone gets shot at the grocery store over a roll of toilet paper. What are these people thinking?
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/gun-sales-rise-coronavirus-fears-trigger-personal-safety-concerns-n1161926
They are thinking if SHTF they want the means to protect themselves and their family. You sure can't depend on government or the police. All they do is clean up the mess, if there are any of them left.
Its been said that civilized behavior is three days thick. If it comes to pass that you can't get what you want or need from a store, there is an element of society that will take it by force if thay can.
If that ever comes to pass, are you willing roll over and perhaps be dead or will you fight to try and protect you and yours?
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Thats so much utter Bullsnits its stinking up the entire room. If you actually believe this you are a lost cause.
You don't spend much time listening the folks on the right getting snitty about Fox News do you? DO oyu actually even spend any time at all with Fox news or OAN?
Zero to both Fox and CNN. Both are not news but entertainment and I get much more entertainment watching Gilgan Island reruns.
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They are thinking if SHTF they want the means to protect themselves and their family. You sure can't depend on government or the police. All they do is clean up the mess, if there are any of them left.
Its been said that civilized behavior is three days thick. If it comes to pass that you can't get what you want or need from a store, there is an element of society that will take it by force if thay can.
If that ever comes to pass, are you willing roll over and perhaps be dead or will you fight to try and protect you and yours?
I think I'll just stay in boring Canada where all the upheaval is about Timmy's closing down the sit down part and only keeping the drive through open.
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I think I'll just stay in boring Canada where all the upheaval is about Timmy's closing down the sit down part and only keeping the drive through open.
You think Canada will be safe in a SHTF situation? Are you willing to bet your life on it?
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Zero to both Fox and CNN. Both are not news but entertainment and I get much more entertainment watching Gilgan Island reruns.
If you don't watch you opinion is pretty much bullsnit as well. You should actually try to watch both. Along with CNBC and MSNBC. You cna learn alot about both sides of an issue, which can be quite helpful.
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Until you are wiping you dirty behind with your left hand...
Well, there is this message from an Oregon Police Department:
"It’s hard to believe that we even have to post this. Do not call 9-1-1 just because you ran out of toilet paper. You will survive without our assistance.
In fact, history offers many other options for you in your time of need if you cannot find a roll of your favorite soft, ultra plush two-ply citrus scented tissue.
Seamen used old rope and anchor lines soaked in salt water. Ancient Romans used a sea sponge on a stick, also soaked in salt water. We are a coastal town. We have an abundance of salt water available. Sea shells were also used.
Mayans used corn cobs. Colonial Americans also used the core of the cob. Farmers not only used corn cobs, but used pages from the Farmers Almanac. Many Americans took advantage of the numerous pages torn from free catalogs such as Sears and Roebuck. The Sears Christmas catalog, four times thicker than the normal catalog, could get a family of three wiped clean from December through Valentine’s Day; or Saint Patrick’s Day if they were frugal.
Then, of course, there are always alternatives to toilet paper. Grocery receipts, newspaper, cloth rags, lace, cotton balls, and that empty toilet paper roll sitting on the holder right now. Plus, there are a variety of leaves you can safely use. Mother Earth News magazine will even tell you how to make your own wipes using fifteen different leaves. When all else fails, you have magazine pages. Start saving those catalogs you get in the mail that you usually toss into the recycle bin. Be resourceful. Be patient. There is a TP shortage. This too shall pass. Just don’t call 9-1-1. We cannot bring you toilet paper."
So many options.
Does anyone else here still get the B&H catalog?
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Well, there is this message from an Oregon Police Department:
So many options.
Does anyone else here still get the B&H catalog?
Yea,
Those options work so well in the septic system or sewer lines...just sayin :)
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You are trying to insinuate through an undisclosed source (which they all seem to be nowadays)
Lool pal. I was just repeating information published in numerous serious papers.
I can give you lots of links and the info is treated as true. Just ask.
If you do not read German, there is the google translator to help you.
If you don't like what is in there, just go ahead and read the "tweets". There is in there probably all you need to form your opinion.
But don't come to me with suspicions of imaginary "conspiracies" against your president.
Not from me, Sir. I couldn't care less. Life is too short.
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If you don't watch you opinion is pretty much bullsnit as well. You should actually try to watch both. Along with CNBC and MSNBC. You cna learn alot about both sides of an issue, which can be quite helpful.
I'd rather watch paint dry.
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You think Canada will be safe in a SHTF situation? Are you willing to bet your life on it?
Actually those types of thoughts never cross my mind and I just enjoy life without hurding a bunch of guns and stock piling ammunition.
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I'd rather watch paint dry.
Have at it. What a great way to be well informed.
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Actually those types of thoughts never cross my mind and I just enjoy life without hurding a bunch of guns and stock piling ammunition.
At your own peril....
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Yea,
Those options work so well in the septic system or sewer lines...just sayin :)
I think you rinse and repeat with the seashells.
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I'm told that that person Trump tried to buy CureVac to get the exclusive rights for a vaccine being developed by the Germans.
They seem to have said "NO", the vaccine should be for everybody.
After the unsuccessful Greenland and CureVac purchase offers, there is a good chance that Trump's third bid may be finally accepted.
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Lool pal. I was just repeating information published in numerous serious papers.
I can give you lots of links and the info is treated as true. Just ask.
If you do not read German, there is the google translator to help you.
If you don't like what is in there, just go ahead and read the "tweets". There is in there probably all you need to form your opinion.
But don't come to me with suspicions of imaginary "conspiracies" against your president.
Not from me, Sir. I couldn't care less. Life is too short.
Okay. :o
And if you are not trying to make something of this, why post it? Really, what is your point here? Like I said, I dont see anything wrong with asking this, might as well try. But I dont think it would have anything to do with him implying that the USA should only have access to this technology.
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Man what is the deal with toilet paper??
I can think of a million things more useful to have in a lockdown. Makes no sense.
This is just a plot by the bidet manufacturers to spur their sales.
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After the unsuccessful Greenland and CureVac purchase offers, there is a good chance that Trump's third bid may be finally accepted.
I would have taken Greenland. Just think if Gold was found under that ice, like Alaska.
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This is just a plot by the bidet manufacturers to spur their sales.
;D ;D ;D
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At your own peril....
I'd trade guns in for good scotch any day. If I'm going out...at least I'll feel good about it.
Oh...just heard the possibility of the liquor stores shutting down...time to go hoard something actually useful.
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I'd trade guns in for good scotch any day. If I'm going out...at least I'll feel good about it.
Oh...just heard the possibility of the liquor stores shutting down...time to go hoard something actually useful.
That is one of the last remaining stores open. Just was informed that Indigo/Chapters books stores will be closed (initially from March 17 till March 27).
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I'd trade guns in for good scotch any day. If I'm going out...at least I'll feel good about it.
Oh...just heard the possibility of the liquor stores shutting down...time to go hoard something actually useful.
In a SHTF situation, I'd take a gun over scotch any day.
A well aged rum though? ???
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I think you rinse and repeat with the seashells.
Sounds like something from the movie Demolition Man
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It seems that the virus of partisan silliness has reached community status. To change the subject, I report the sad news that I just dined in a restaurant for the last time in a while—choosing an outdoor table with suitable spacing.
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Okay, this really is getting stupid. All of the golf courses here are shutting down. Seriously?
I cant think of an activity that keeps you away from large groups in a more open space then golf. I mean I can understand locker rooms and club houses being an issue, but to shut down the courses? What's next, a ban on fishing?
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In a SHTF situation, I'd take a gun over scotch any day.
A well aged rum though? ???
Yes a 16 year old Cuban rum will do.
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It seems that the virus of partisan silliness has reached community status. To change the subject, I report the sad news that I just dined in a restaurant for the last time in a while—choosing an outdoor table with suitable spacing.
Hope the chef didn't sneeze all over your plate and the waiter cleaned his hands lately.
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Okay, this really is getting stupid. All of the golf courses here are shutting down. Seriously?
I cant think of an activity that keeps you away from large groups in a more open space then golf. I mean I can understand locker rooms and club houses being an issue, but to shut down the courses? What's next, a ban on fishing?
Just spoke with a friend from Florida.
Apparently, in Broward County they banned now also people from walking on the beach. I'd agree with banning all men wearing those silly 2 1/2 ft long swimming trunks, but how would a shapely woman in bikini infect anybody from a 6 ft distance?
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Just spoke with a friend from Florida.
Apparently, in Broward County they banned now also people from walking on the beach. I'd agree with banning all men wearing those silly 2 1/2 ft long swimming trunks, but how would a shapely woman in bikini infect anybody from a 6 ft distance?
We have now reached the point of total absurdity. Amazing how quickly we got here.
It is stuff like this that is ultimately going to make most people ignore government. Closing down restaurants, bars, theatres, okay. Beaches and large parks?
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My golf club has announced that we will no longer allow guests, and that members will not allowed to ride in the same cart unless they're domestic partners. Of all the sports I can think of, golf and swimming seem likely to be the safest. No spectators, no contact necessary. Probably stay away from wrestling.
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We have now reached the point of total absurdity. Amazing how quickly we got here.
It is stuff like this that is ultimately going to make most people ignore government. Closing down restaurants, bars, theatres, okay. Beaches and large parks?
It must seem different for a younger person than it does for those over 65 who get hard by this thing.
Don’t be a spreader. If you get it it might not be a big thing. Giving it to someone older, unwittingly, is a big deal.
It could kill them. Speaking as an older person, we are depending on you to take this seriously.
PS
My guess it’s lockdown nationwide by Friday.
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The coronavirus has sparked the sales of guns and ammo. It is only a matter of time before someone gets shot at the grocery store over a roll of toilet paper. What are these people thinking?
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/gun-sales-rise-coronavirus-fears-trigger-personal-safety-concerns-n1161926
Isn't it the case that whenever just about anything happens, we hear that sales of guns go up? Smacks of marketing to me, am I too cynical?
It seems odd to me since the publicly quoted stats make it sound as if there are already more guns than people in the USA, do a few more gun sales make much difference? But the "reporting" of increased gun sales might spur people to buy more guns. It worked with toilet paper. It might be unseemly for a gun manufacturer to actively promote gun sales for the coming toilet paper apocalypse, they need something more subtle, so just release info to the press that gun sales are going up. Although it could even be true, it's plausible enough.
It's a bizarre reaction to a virus though.
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We have now reached the point of total absurdity. Amazing how quickly we got here.
It is stuff like this that is ultimately going to make most people ignore government. Closing down restaurants, bars, theatres, okay. Beaches and large parks?
Sure seems like overkill. I mean, the grocery stores there must still be open. But this is a local government requirement, so it's less surprising to me. With all those municipal, county, etc., jurisdictions, there are always going to be some that go a bit nuts. Those entities may not always have the most thoughtful people running things, and it may also depend on who was at the meeting that day. If no one was there to ask the right question and if the guy in charge doesn't live near a beach or doesn't play golf... I'm just saying that no one should be surprised that people sometimes make dumb decisions.
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It must seem different for a younger person than it does for those over 65 who get hard by this thing.
Don’t be a spreader. If you get it it might not be a big thing. Giving it to someone older, unwittingly, is a big deal.
It could kill them. Speaking as an older person, we are depending on you to take this seriously.
PS
My guess it’s lockdown nationwide by Friday.
This may be true, but if we dont develop a heard immunity it's a moot point.
What are we going to do, bugger up for two months so no one catches it only for us to start spreading it around again after we come out.
A vaccine is a year out and no way am I staying in for a year, not even a month. Denmark seems to be the only one handling this with some sense. Protect the old and vulnerable, but allow everyone to operate as normal, catch it and develop an immunity to it.
I'll take it as seriously as I can without loosing my house or my market share. They have a couple of weeks, three max, then the hustling begins again. You know as well as I do, cash flow is almost more important that profits.
At some point the effects of the economy crashing will be greater then the virus. This cure is starting to look like it will be worse then the disease.
And this does not mean I cant be critical of idiotic implications until then, like looking up vast public parks and forests. I can think of a lot more dangerous things in a forest that COVID19.
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For the more overexcited people here I can start another topic about how administration failed the covid response and you can continue the fight there, this it’s getting old.
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This may be true, but if we dont develop a heard immunity it's a moot point.
What are we going to do, bugger up for two months so no one catches it only for us to start spreading it around again after we come out.
A vaccine is a year out and no way am I staying in for a year, not even a month. Denmark seems to be the only one handling this with some sense. Protect the old and vulnerable, but allow everyone to operate as normal, catch it and develop an immunity to it.
I'll take it as seriously as I can without loosing my house or my market share. They have a couple of weeks, three max, then the hustling begins again. You know as well as I do, cash flow is almost more important that profits.
At some point the effects of the economy crashing will be greater then the virus. This cure is starting to look like it will be worse then the disease.
And this does not mean I cant be critical of idiotic implications until then, like looking up vast public parks and forests. I can think of a lot more dangerous things in a forest that COVID19.
Yea we are going to lose the economy, and market share. That’s the way it works. I, like most everyone else am going to lose money and maybe even clients. Thats the price we are going to pay. I for one don’t want to see this thing kill anyone, not me, not my wife, not my parents, not my brothers and sisters....no one. I really hope you and everyone will do what’s necessary to try and keep people alive.
Two or three weeks are not going to do it. 45 days minimum. There is a pretty good chance you won’t be given an option. This is going to be ugly Joe, and painful. I don’t want to go through it, and I now you don’t. But, there are the cards on the table. We gotta play the hand.
Here’s the problem with “ protecting it old” and business as usual. It’s gonna kill people. Parks and forests? You make contact with people who make contact with people who make contact with people and in the end people die.
The cure is going to well and truly suck. It has cost a lot of us a lot of money already and it’s gonna cost a whole lot more before it ends. We did’nt ask for this but we have it and that’s just the way it is.
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For the more overexcited people here I can start another topic about how administration failed the covid response and you can continue the fight there, this it’s getting old.
Oh please...enough of the blame game. It’s well past that point and your feelings are well know.
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This may be true, but if we dont develop a heard immunity it's a moot point.
What are we going to do, bugger up for two months so no one catches it only for us to start spreading it around again after we come out.
A vaccine is a year out and no way am I staying in for a year, not even a month. Denmark seems to be the only one handling this with some sense. Protect the old and vulnerable, but allow everyone to operate as normal, catch it and develop an immunity to it.
I'll take it as seriously as I can without loosing my house or my market share. They have a couple of weeks, three max, then the hustling begins again. You know as well as I do, cash flow is almost more important that profits.
At some point the effects of the economy crashing will be greater then the virus. This cure is starting to look like it will be worse then the disease.
And this does not mean I cant be critical of idiotic implications until then, like looking up vast public parks and forests. I can think of a lot more dangerous things in a forest that COVID19.
It might work but there are some issues with this approach. How effective will be your elderly protection/isolation? How many people will not be working anyway, because while the young do better, they still get sick.
And most important, what’s your definition of old? There people in their low 40s dying currently in US.
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Oh please...enough of the blame game. It’s well past that point and your feelings are well know.
Can you leave your venom somewhere else? I don’t f... care about your politics, I opened this as a debate about how the epidemics is evolving, trying to keep it based on facts. If wanted to debate politics I would have done it long ago on the other topics. Zealots don’t belong here.
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Isn't it the case that whenever just about anything happens, we hear that sales of guns go up? Smacks of marketing to me, am I too cynical?
It seems odd to me since the publicly quoted stats make it sound as if there are already more guns than people in the USA, do a few more gun sales make much difference? But the "reporting" of increased gun sales might spur people to buy more guns. It worked with toilet paper. It might be unseemly for a gun manufacturer to actively promote gun sales for the coming toilet paper apocalypse, they need something more subtle, so just release info to the press that gun sales are going up. Although it could even be true, it's plausible enough.
It's a bizarre reaction to a virus though.
What’s so bizarre about it? People are afraid and they are looking for sometime that might offer some protection in the event of a really bad outcome. Even if it won’t. It’s not about toilet paper.
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<snip>
Two or three weeks are not going to do it. 45 days minimum. <snip>
If it's 45 days, I'd be ecstatic. I'm thinking we hit the peak sometime this summer.
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Can you leave your venom somewhere else? I don’t f... care about your politics, I opened this as a debate about how the epidemics is evolving, trying to keep it based on facts. If wanted to debate politics I would have done it long ago on the other topics. Zealots don’t belong here.
That’s rich coming from you, who has used veiled political references for post after post. Take a good hard look in the mirror dude before you start calling people zealots. Your hypocrisy is simply stunning.
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Here some articles mostly about Covid: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/trending/
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If it's 45 days, I'd be ecstatic. I'm thinking we hit the peak sometime this summer.
That very well may be.
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That’s rich coming from you, who has used veiled political references for post after post. Take a good hard look in the mirror dude before you start calling people zealots. Your hypocrisy is simply stunning.
Just go away or talk about the actual epidemics, will you? This a total waste. All my “political” comments are in the Covid topics and regarding how the response was, and that was based on factual data of which I had knowledge; find other political comments from me elsewhere in this forum. You are blinded by your prejudice.
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When you don't learn from history you are bound to repeat it: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-17/europe-s-doctors-getting-sick-like-in-wuhan-chinese-doctors-say
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If it's 45 days, I'd be ecstatic. I'm thinking we hit the peak sometime this summer.
The infection rates and deaths are still going up, and the curves are steepening. It won't get much better in 2 weeks, but giving up early and letting it run its natural course could be even worse.
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Not sure if this has been reported elsewhere?
"Medical authorities in China have said a drug used in Japan to treat new strains of influenza appeared to be effective in coronavirus patients, Japanese media said on Wednesday.
Zhang Xinmin, an official at China’s science and technology ministry, said favipiravir, developed by a subsidiary of Fujifilm, had produced encouraging outcomes in clinical trials in Wuhan and Shenzhen involving 340 patients."
Favipiravir (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/japanese-flu-drug-clearly-effective-in-treating-coronavirus-says-china)
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Okay. :o
And if you are not trying to make something of this, why post it? Really, what is your point here? Like I said, I dont see anything wrong with asking this, might as well try. But I dont think it would have anything to do with him implying that the USA should only have access to this technology.
As I can see you are a customer of this coffee corner. As such you surely be well aware of the numerous pointless discussions in it, over different subjects.
I got that info from the European press, especially the German but not only.
Since we're talking here of Covid and the subject was never touched, I threw it in.
As a result Alan Goldhammer wrote that it was fake news.
It could be that other people had some to say as well.
Maybe he's right, maybe he's not but in the era of tweetting and infotainment it is difficult to discern.
I take his info seriously and put it in the scales, trying to form an opinion
Maybe you call this "a point"?
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Not sure if this has been reported elsewhere? ...
Yes, Keith I've seen and heard of this and other advances most notably from Germany. I'd hope that Alan Goldhammer could give us input.
ITM.
'track & trace' mainly from mobile phone records, seeks to identify and isolate any who may have had contact. So far the most successful method of minimising contagion.
“Contact tracing is also very influential in epidemic control, as is case isolation,”
Europe is now the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. Case counts and deaths are soaring in Italy, Spain, France, and Germany, and many countries have imposed lockdowns and closed borders. Meanwhile, the United States, hampered by a fiasco with delayed and faulty test kits, is just guessing at its COVID-19 burden, though experts believe it is on the same trajectory as countries in Europe.
Behind South Korea's success so far has been the most expansive and well-organized testing program in the world, combined with extensive efforts to isolate infected people and trace and quarantine their contacts. South Korea has tested more than 270,000 people, which amounts to more than 5200 tests per million inhabitants—more than any other country except tiny Bahrain, according to the Worldometer website. The United States has so far carried out 74 tests per 1 million inhabitants, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
South Korea’s success may hold lessons for other countries—and also a warning: Even after driving case numbers down, the country is braced for a resurgence.
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Yes, Keith I've seen and heard of this and other advances most notably from Germany. I'd hope that Alan Goldhammer could give us input...
Apparently Fujifilm shares are on the up.
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self-explanatory:
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49672681697_430223067f_c.jpg)
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Yea we are going to lose the economy, and market share. That’s the way it works. I, like most everyone else am going to lose money and maybe even clients. Thats the price we are going to pay. I for one don’t want to see this thing kill anyone, not me, not my wife, not my parents, not my brothers and sisters....no one. I really hope you and everyone will do what’s necessary to try and keep people alive.
Two or three weeks are not going to do it. 45 days minimum. There is a pretty good chance you won’t be given an option. This is going to be ugly Joe, and painful. I don’t want to go through it, and I now you don’t. But, there are the cards on the table. We gotta play the hand.
Here’s the problem with “ protecting it old” and business as usual. It’s gonna kill people. Parks and forests? You make contact with people who make contact with people who make contact with people and in the end people die.
The cure is going to well and truly suck. It has cost a lot of us a lot of money already and it’s gonna cost a whole lot more before it ends. We did’nt ask for this but we have it and that’s just the way it is.
Like I said, I dont see the point to it to a full shut down for 45 days or more. Two to three weeks to help flatten the curve, then take measures to protect older people, and let others get back to their lives.
I am being realistic here. People are going to boil over and start doing this regardless. Plus we need to develop an heard immunity to this, or it wont matter anyway. We'll just come out and it will start up again.
In Philadelphia, the courts have nearly completely shut down and all bail hearings have stopped. To help keep the jails from overflowing, the police department yesterday announced they will no longer be making arrests for anything but major felonies. If this is the case, how will they enforce a curfew or anything else. Are they actually going to arrest someone for breaking a curfew but not for robbing his neighbor? It just wont happen. Politically it is a total non-starter.
We are not China; the military is not going to descend into every town. Even if this was an option, we are too large a country and our military is far too small to do so.
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Internet whispers:
Doctors in India having success in treating covid-19 with a combination of Lopinavir, Retonovir,, Oseltamivir, Chlorphenamine.
Research at Erasmus Medical Center [?] claiming to have found an antibody against covid-19
A network of Canadian scientists making excellent progress in covid-19 research
Ditto, a San Diego biotech company working in conjunction w/ Duke University and National University of Singapore
Just whispers, attach importance at your peril.
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Like I said, I dont see the point to it to a full shut down for 45 days or more.
See post #385 : how South Korea has manged it so far.
There's no magic quick-fix: It's 'track, trace and isolate'.
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See post #385 : how South Korea has manged it so far.
There's no magic quick-fix: It's 'track, trace and isolate'.
South Korea ain't the USA. We have defiance in our hearts for authority. I'd be surprised if overall Americans listened to government here when people dont seem to be dropping like flies.
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South Korea ain't the USA. We have defiance in our heart for authority. I'd be surprised if overall Americans listened to government here when people dont seem to be dropping like flies.
Wait until they do ?
Unless I'm mistaken Califormia & NYC are already in lockdown.
Obviously, those in rural, less populated areas, are less at risk than those in the densely populated cities.
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South Korea ain't the USA. We have defiance in our heart for authority. I'd be surprised if overall Americans listened to government here when people dont seem to be dropping like flies.
Once you are in the dropping like flies mode...you can kiss your ass good bye. These measures are to stop from getting there. Ain't that hard to understand this.
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Internet whispers:
Doctors in India having success in treating covid-19 with a combination of Lopinavir, Retonovir,, Oseltamivir, Chlorphenamine.
Research at Erasmus Medical Center [?] claiming to have found an antibody against covid-19
A network of Canadian scientists making excellent progress in covid-19 research
Ditto, a San Diego biotech company working in conjunction w/ Duke University and National University of Singapore
Just whispers, attach importance at your peril.
There are some concerns that with the first 2 you might drive the body into immune reconstitution syndrome, basically the immune system goes into overdrive and starts killing friend and foe. Exaggerated immune response seems to be part of the pathology COVID-19.
Once you are in the dropping like flies mode...you can kiss your ass good bye. These measures are to stop from getting there. Ain't that hard to understand this.
But it is, proof is current behavior. I do get it it's tough for some people without some science/medical training to fully understand why they have to give up their current way of living when people around them seems fine. Part of that is the assault on expert opinion and how anybody with internet thinks they know better.
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Wait until they do ?
Unless I'm mistaken Califormia & NYC are already in lockdown.
Obviously, those in rural, less populated areas, are less at risk than those in the densely populated cities.
If/when it happens, things will change. If it does not, the way I described it is how it will proceed.
FYI, as much as Bill DeBlasio would like to live his wet dream as an authoritarian, NYC is not locked down. De Blasio would need state approval, and Cuomo, who hates De Blasio, already shut down that idea. And plus I dont plan on taking him seriously when he cant even follow his own orders. The day after he put in place a mandatory closure of gyms, he forced his to open so he could get his morning work out in. His excuse? I need to stay mentally fit to make the decisions for the city. LOL.
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Okay, this really is getting stupid. All of the golf courses here are shutting down. Seriously?
I cant think of an activity that keeps you away from large groups in a more open space then golf. I mean I can understand locker rooms and club houses being an issue, but to shut down the courses? What's next, a ban on fishing?
It's funny, someone - it could have been Dr Fauci - said that what happens in situations like this, is that folks always say at the beginning, the government is doing too much and at the end of it they say the government did not do enough....
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It's funny, someone - it could have been Dr Fauci - said that what happens in situations like this, is that folks always say at the beginning, the government is doing too much and at the end of it they say the government did not do enough....
Give me a break Will.
Like I said before, stores, gyms, etc., I can see those. Very large outdoor parks and forests? It's an over reach.
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South Korea ain't the USA. We have defiance in our hearts for authority. I'd be surprised if overall Americans listened to government here when people dont seem to be dropping like flies.
The civic duty in Japan and South Korea is likely far higher than US, and most countries for that matter.
It's funny, someone - it could have been Dr Fauci - said that what happens in situations like this, is that folks always say at the beginning, the government is doing too much and at the end of it they say the government did not do enough....
Yep. The initial response looks alarmist and but in retrospect it was not enough.
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Give me a break Will.
Like I said before, stores, gyms, etc., I can see those. Very large outdoor parks and forests? It's an over reach.
Time will tell... :)
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Just go away or talk about the actual epidemics, will you? This a total waste. All my “political” comments are in the Covid topics and regarding how the response was, and that was based on factual data of which I had knowledge; find other political comments from me elsewhere in this forum. You are blinded by your prejudice.
Yea , right. I see you can’t see your own reflection in the mirror. You are blinded by your self righteousness.
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Here some articles mostly about Covid: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/trending/
I thought I already posted this but if not, here is the best source of pre-prints about COVID-19: https://www.medrxiv.org/search/coronavirus%20numresults%3A10%20sort%3Apublication-date%20direction%3Adescending?page=1
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It's funny, someone - it could have been Dr Fauci - said that what happens in situations like this, is that folks always say at the beginning, the government is doing too much and at the end of it they say the government did not do enough....
I mean, will someone PLEASE think about the golf players!
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Not sure if this has been reported elsewhere?
"Medical authorities in China have said a drug used in Japan to treat new strains of influenza appeared to be effective in coronavirus patients, Japanese media said on Wednesday.
Zhang Xinmin, an official at China’s science and technology ministry, said favipiravir, developed by a subsidiary of Fujifilm, had produced encouraging outcomes in clinical trials in Wuhan and Shenzhen involving 340 patients."
Favipiravir (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/japanese-flu-drug-clearly-effective-in-treating-coronavirus-says-china)
It will be good if this does work as it is very easy to manufacture in bulk. It's an oral drug but apparently is not active in the airway as per one published paper that looked at it versus influenza. We'll have to see what the clinical data looks like. There is an article in today's NY Times about how academic researchers have scaled up testing in looking at targets.\: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/science/coronavirus-treatment.html What was most interesting to me is the interaction between these viruses and over 400 proteins in the cell it hijacks. This could mean that there are many possible targets for drug discovery.
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I mean, will someone PLEASE think about the golf players!
Just golfers.
Same deal with crew; it's not crew players but rowers.
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Give me a break Will.
Like I said before, stores, gyms, etc., I can see those. Very large outdoor parks and forests? It's an over reach.
Unless you wander around alone, no, it's not too much caution. Can you vouch for where anyone else has been, with whom they have exchanged viruses? Of course you can't. You need but one carrier to hand it over to you - gratis.
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Just golfers.
Same deal with crew; it's not crew players but rowers.
OMG...not the rowers too! What about the 80 year old couple that live at home being scared shitless of peaking out their door, afraid of picking up something that will kill them quickly. Surely the golfers and rowers have some compassion and understanding here...
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Like I said, I dont see the point to it to a full shut down for 45 days or more. Two to three weeks to help flatten the curve, then take measures to protect older people, and let others get back to their lives.
I am being realistic here. People are going to boil over and start doing this regardless. Plus we need to develop an heard immunity to this, or it wont matter anyway. We'll just come out and it will start up again.
In Philadelphia, the courts have nearly completely shut down and all bail hearings have stopped. To help keep the jails from overflowing, the police department yesterday announced they will no longer be making arrests for anything but major felonies. If this is the case, how will they enforce a curfew or anything else. Are they actually going to arrest someone for breaking a curfew but not for robbing his neighbor? It just wont happen. Politically it is a total non-starter.
We are not China; the military is not going to descend into every town. Even if this was an option, we are too large a country and our military is far too small to do so.
How are you going to work if your clients offices are closed and buildings are closed? If the government says we are closed do you expect the companies you work for to just disregard the order? I don’t think the companies I work for will do that. Maybe yours are different. I get it. You don’t like this. You want to get on with your life. No one does Joe.
People are not going to like this, even at two weeks. There was a time in this country when the people all pulled together for the common good, even if it cost them their lives or the lives of their sons. I don’t know if this situation is as grave, but I do know it’s going to take people considering the common good and doing what’s right. Let’s hope we still have those values as a country.
No one wants to see their live disrupted, but it’s going to happen no matter what. You don’t want to lose your house and business...I get that. But sometimes these things are beyond our control. You just deal with it and rebuild I’d required. That’s the realism here Joe. It’s happened before. The crash of 08 was beyond my control, and it cost me everything but my house. You get back up and rebuild. At least you are young enough to have time to do so. Many people are living on their investments and many won’t have the ability to earn more to replace what was lost. Sure the markets may come back and that will help, but for many it won’t.
I’m afraid this is going to be about shared sacrifice. It won’t be fun. Depending on how bad it gets it may become martial law. Let’s hope not. But, and I say this sadly...it appears the young just don’t give a damn. The images on the news showing young people still crowding the beaches shows a real lack of concern for anything but themselves. If this is the mentality of next generation of adults we are totally screwed.
We are at a turning point. The question is, how will we respond.
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How are you going to work if your clients offices are closed and buildings are closed? If the government says we are closed do you expect the companies you work for to just disregard the order? I don’t think the companies I work for will do that. Maybe yours are different. I get it. You don’t like this. You want to get on with your life. No one does Joe.
People are not going to like this, even at two weeks. There was a time in this country when the people all pulled together for the common good, even if it cost them their lives or the lives of their sons. I don’t know if this situation is as grave, but I do know it’s going to take people considering the common good and doing what’s right. Let’s hope we still have those values as a country.
No one wants to see their live disrupted, but it’s going to happen no matter what. You don’t want to lose your house and business...I get that. But sometimes these things are beyond our control. You just deal with it and rebuild I’d required. That’s the realism here Joe. It’s happened before. The crash of 08 was beyond my control, and it cost me everything but my house. You get back up and rebuild. At least you are young enough to have time to do so. Many people are living on their investments and many won’t have the ability to earn more to replace what was lost. Sure the markets may come back and that will help, but for many it won’t.
I’m afraid this is going to be about shared sacrifice. It won’t be fun. Depending on how bad it gets it may become martial law. Let’s hope not. But, and I say this sadly...it appears the young just don’t give a damn. The images on the news showing young people still crowding the beaches shows a real lack of concern for anything but themselves. If this is the mentality of next generation of adults we are totally screwed.
We are at a turning point. The question is, how will we respond.
Dont need access to shoot exteriors. Several of my projects are exteriors only.
If people can order take out and leave their house to pick it up, I can go outside and shoot exteriors while not coming in contact with anyone.
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OMG...not the rowers too! What about the 80 year old couple that live at home being scared shitless of peaking out their door, afraid of picking up something that will kill them quickly. Surely the golfers and rowers have some compassion and understanding here...
I was just making a comment about the proper term for golfer and rowers people often mess up.
If you wealthy enough to own your own single costing about $14K plus two oars about $800 each and a place to store this 20 foot thing, I dont feel bad for you. However, rowing by yourself in the middle of the river is surely not going to put anyone in danger.
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How are you going to work if your clients offices are closed and buildings are closed? If the government says we are closed do you expect the companies you work for to just disregard the order? I don’t think the companies I work for will do that. Maybe yours are different. I get it. You don’t like this. You want to get on with your life. No one does Joe.
People are not going to like this, even at two weeks. There was a time in this country when the people all pulled together for the common good, even if it cost them their lives or the lives of their sons. I don’t know if this situation is as grave, but I do know it’s going to take people considering the common good and doing what’s right. Let’s hope we still have those values as a country.
No one wants to see their live disrupted, but it’s going to happen no matter what. You don’t want to lose your house and business...I get that. But sometimes these things are beyond our control. You just deal with it and rebuild I’d required. That’s the realism here Joe. It’s happened before. The crash of 08 was beyond my control, and it cost me everything but my house. You get back up and rebuild. At least you are young enough to have time to do so. Many people are living on their investments and many won’t have the ability to earn more to replace what was lost. Sure the markets may come back and that will help, but for many it won’t.
I’m afraid this is going to be about shared sacrifice. It won’t be fun. Depending on how bad it gets it may become martial law. Let’s hope not. But, and I say this sadly...it appears the young just don’t give a damn. The images on the news showing young people still crowding the beaches shows a real lack of concern for anything but themselves. If this is the mentality of next generation of adults we are totally screwed.
We are at a turning point. The question is, how will we respond.
Yes, this situation will mark our society. I've heard China sending doctors and ventilators to Italy. I've heard Cuba take in a cruise line when every other country in the Carrabean would not...because medical treatment is a human right. Now it's up to us as to what mark we leave on society. There's been some good come out from countries that is unexpected...hopefully countries like the US and Canada can join these other countries and show society how to come out of this world wide crisis.
Surely people understand this is bigger than someone missing their tee off time.
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How are you going to work if your clients offices are closed and buildings are closed? If the government says we are closed do you expect the companies you work for to just disregard the order? I don’t think the companies I work for will do that. Maybe yours are different. I get it. You don’t like this. You want to get on with your life. No one does Joe.
People are not going to like this, even at two weeks. There was a time in this country when the people all pulled together for the common good, even if it cost them their lives or the lives of their sons. I don’t know if this situation is as grave, but I do know it’s going to take people considering the common good and doing what’s right. Let’s hope we still have those values as a country.
No one wants to see their live disrupted, but it’s going to happen no matter what. You don’t want to lose your house and business...I get that. But sometimes these things are beyond our control. You just deal with it and rebuild I’d required. That’s the realism here Joe. It’s happened before. The crash of 08 was beyond my control, and it cost me everything but my house. You get back up and rebuild. At least you are young enough to have time to do so. Many people are living on their investments and many won’t have the ability to earn more to replace what was lost. Sure the markets may come back and that will help, but for many it won’t.
I’m afraid this is going to be about shared sacrifice. It won’t be fun. Depending on how bad it gets it may become martial law. Let’s hope not. But, and I say this sadly...it appears the young just don’t give a damn. The images on the news showing young people still crowding the beaches shows a real lack of concern for anything but themselves. If this is the mentality of next generation of adults we are totally screwed.
We are at a turning point. The question is, how will we respond.
Very thoughtful response, Craig.
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Yea , right. I see you can’t see your own reflection in the mirror. You are blinded by your self righteousness.
I have not political posts anywhere but the covid and they are related to specific things that I have actual knowledge. You are just pulling things from the internet because I said something bad about Trump.
As opposed to you I actually I don't have the comfort of staying home but have to deal with this crap on a very personal level.
The initial response to this pandemic was screwed up (as in other parts of the world) and Trump and team minimized until they couldn't hide it anymore. There is a consensus about this even among my republican coworkers. Is he the only one guilty? Of course not but he has his share. You got stuck that I have gotten wrong the exact wording on one comment, neglecting the bulk of the messages. And no, I don't plan to watch Fox to educate myself, I tried a couple of times and no more; and I don't watch CNN either, worry not.
Things is I don't have too, this IS NOT a political discussion.
Be that as it may, I'm not trying to convince you because that's why I stayed out of political discussions, after multiple pages and posts, multiple hours spent and maybe few topics closed, everybody has the exact opinion as in the beginning.
I only was dragged into this by people like you who can't take any negative comments about their leader.
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I thought I already posted this but if not, here is the best source of pre-prints about COVID-19: https://www.medrxiv.org/search/coronavirus%20numresults%3A10%20sort%3Apublication-date%20direction%3Adescending?page=1
Yes, I guess it depends on your background too and which source your more comfortable this. I think you have a background in basic sciences and I see why this would be your best source. I have a medical background and gravitate towards the more clinical articles.
Good to have both in this times although information overload is a danger and there is a current rush of so so quality data.
Everybody is in overdrive reading and searching now trying to figure it out how to best approach this. We are awfully unprepared despite having so much warning time. In the hospital where I work we are already in protective equipment sparring mode despite the fact we have yet to get the first confirmed case. It's just a matter of time, the confirmed cases are getting closer and closer and with a 3+ days to get the test results back we might already have some.
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I have not political posts anywhere but the covid and they are related to specific things that I have actual knowledge. You are just pulling things from the internet because I said something bad about Trump.
As opposed to you I actually I don't have the comfort of staying home but have to deal with this crap on a very personal level.
The initial response to this pandemic was screwed up (as in other parts of the world) and Trump and team minimized until they couldn't hide it anymore. There is a consensus about this even among my republican coworkers. Is he the only one guilty? Of course not but he has his share. You got stuck that I have gotten wrong the exact wording on one comment, neglecting the bulk of the messages. And no, I don't plan to watch Fox to educate myself, I tried a couple of times and no more; and I don't watch CNN either, worry not.
Things is I don't have too, this IS NOT a political discussion.
Be that as it may, I'm not trying to convince you because that's why I stayed out of political discussions, after multiple pages and posts, multiple hours spent and maybe few topics closed, everybody has the exact opinion as in the beginning.
I only was dragged into this by people like you who can't take any negative comments about their leader.
And there you go again with the political comments you say you dislike. You got called on this by others but you still can’t see what you are doing. You got “ dragged” into this by yourself and your own comments. Deal with it.
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Just golfers.
Same deal with crew; it's not crew players but rowers.
Gotta sharpen my English.
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Dont need access to shoot exteriors. Several of my projects are exteriors only.
You may not need access but you still need the blessing of the clients. Some may be a bit put off by the fact you might be disregarding warnings just to make images. Others maybe not. Have you considered how it might appear to new, potential clients when they ask you how you got these image of buildings with no people and you tell tell them you made them during the Covid-19 crisis...when people were asked to stay home? That might not be a comment some will want to hear.
added on edit:
There is a marked difference between eating and making images....
Reputations take a very long time to build and a very short time to destroy.
In the end only you can decide how you will respond to this. I wish you well with your choices.
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You may not need access but you still need the blessing of the clients. Some may be a bit put off by the fact you might be disregarding warnings just to make images. Others maybe not. Have you considered how it might appear to new, potential clients when they ask you how you got these image of buildings with no people and you tell tell them you made them during the Covid-19 crisis...when people were asked to stay home? That might not be a comment some will want to hear.
Reputations take a very long time to build and a very short time to destroy.
In the end only you can decide how you will respond to this. I wish you well with your choices.
There are some who will find it unpleasant, most wont care. I keep my cards pretty close to the chest and would not discuss with them how or when I made the images unless they were complicate in hiring me.
Plus I edit people out of images all of the time by just taking several dozen shots within a 5 minute time period. Who's to say how I edited them out.
Like I added to my above post, if people can and now being encouraged to order take out, I shooting exteriors is no big deal. I don't come in contact with people when doing so, especially if I light up a Churchill to keep people away. When you order take out, how many people do you come in contact with?
Edit, there is a large difference between making your own food and paying someone to do it for you. Yesterday I made a new 6 pound wheel of Gouda, which albeit will take 6 months to be ready, a few loaves of bread, a bunch a vegetables, etc. Today I have 3 gallons of beef stew stewing and rendering out tallow from the fat I cut away. I'm doing my part.
To be honest, I think you are over reacting. For someone in your age group, sure, I can understand isolating yourself from the world for a few months. For everyone else, it will just delay the enviable. As I said before, should we just lock ourselves up for three months only to come out and start it all over again, or should we try to build a heard immunity? I vote for the latter.
Even my own mother yesterday, when speaking about my sister's children, told me there is no way she is not seeing her grandchildren. My brother is like you, wants her to stay locked up indefinitely. I can see the concern and err on the side of caution, but she just does not care.
"Death smiles at us all, all a man can do is smile back."
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Oh, no I agree completely. It's unacceptable when any media outlet assumes the worst about a President that is as forthright, honest, concise and magnanimous as Donald J. Trump. It's just so gosh darn unfair.
Newspapers should check rumors and leads before they print stuff. Especially papers like the NY Times who know better and where you expect honest reporting. This is why they're not trusted anymore. Evey news item is politically reviewed for effect before published to see if it can aid their political positions.
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[/quote]That's sort of the Trump administration in a nutshell, amirite?
I'll be serious for a moment...
You're correct, but rightwingers hold traditional media to a standard that "their" (the right wing) favored publications could never, ever, ever, EVER uphold. It would be counter to their entire raison d'être.. So yeah, while I concur that the headline is misleading and I do wish that media like NYT and WaPo were hyper aware of their obligations, especially now, you'll pardon me if my eyes are rolling so far that they're about to pop out of my head when you cast Donald Trump and his current enablers in Congress as victims of any sort.
They just don't like it when their own tactics are used on them.
We expect politicians on both sides of the aisle to be partisan. That's what they do. But newspapers who play political games lose their authority and our respect and trust.
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It will be good if this does work as it is very easy to manufacture in bulk. It's an oral drug but apparently is not active in the airway as per one published paper that looked at it versus influenza. We'll have to see what the clinical data looks like. There is an article in today's NY Times about how academic researchers have scaled up testing in looking at targets.\: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/science/coronavirus-treatment.html What was most interesting to me is the interaction between these viruses and over 400 proteins in the cell it hijacks. This could mean that there are many possible targets for drug discovery.
I saw that yesterday (published online) and several more like it. I find it interesting that companies and researchers are sticking to protocols despite the urgency of the problem -- that they have a possible drug that could be effective but they still go through these bureaucratic forms of testing and approval. The testing I see, both for efficacy and safety, but I would think that in the current case, if they see some efficacy and no major red flags regarding safety, they would begin immediate bulk manufacturing and the bureaucratic approvals would be short-circuited to get it out there. In the case of Washington state, there were a couple of weeks of back-and-forth on who had the right to test and who had the power to approve testing before people were allowed to test, even though the tests were obviously working. That was ridiculous.
Among other things I think Congress needs to do, is some kind of protection against lawsuits for pharmaceutical companies who do abbreviated trials of Covus-19 treatments, especially those aimed at critical cases. If somebody is 95% likely to die, I don't think we need a drug that has been proven to be 100% safe.
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Like I said, I dont see the point to it to a full shut down for 45 days or more. Two to three weeks to help flatten the curve, then take measures to protect older people, and let others get back to their lives.
I am being realistic here. People are going to boil over and start doing this regardless. Plus we need to develop an heard immunity to this, or it wont matter anyway. We'll just come out and it will start up again.
In Philadelphia, the courts have nearly completely shut down and all bail hearings have stopped. To help keep the jails from overflowing, the police department yesterday announced they will no longer be making arrests for anything but major felonies. If this is the case, how will they enforce a curfew or anything else. Are they actually going to arrest someone for breaking a curfew but not for robbing his neighbor? It just wont happen. Politically it is a total non-starter.
We are not China; the military is not going to descend into every town. Even if this was an option, we are too large a country and our military is far too small to do so.
2 or 3 weeks will not flatten the curve.
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I'm not sure that the administration and president know more than some of the posters on this forum.
At the current rate of 12,500 new infections and 600 deaths per day, by end of the week we'll have globally 250,000 infections and 10,000 deaths.
Les, 10,000 dead is a lot, and especially if your know one of them. But from a statistical point of view, by comparison, 500,000 people died from the regular flu in the world last year. The current situation seems to have settle down in Korea and China, I believe. Let's hope this thing burns out quickly.
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Just spoke with a friend from Florida.
Apparently, in Broward County they banned now also people from walking on the beach. I'd agree with banning all men wearing those silly 2 1/2 ft long swimming trunks, but how would a shapely woman in bikini infect anybody from a 6 ft distance?
Well, it would help me. My wife told me that she'd hand me my head if I got within 5 feet of a girl in a bikini.
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Just spoke with a friend from Florida.
Apparently, in Broward County they banned now also people from walking on the beach. I'd agree with banning all men wearing those silly 2 1/2 ft long swimming trunks, but how would a shapely woman in bikini infect anybody from a 6 ft distance?
Well, it would help me. My wife told me that she'd hand me my head if I got within 5 feet of a girl in a bikini. My golf club has announced that we will no longer allow guests, and that members will not allowed to ride in the same cart unless they're domestic partners. Of all the sports I can think of, golf and swimming seem likely to be the safest. No spectators, no contact necessary. Probably stay away from wrestling.
Landscape photography in the woods by yourself.
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And there you go again with the political comments you say you dislike. You got called on this by others but you still can’t see what you are doing. You got “ dragged” into this by yourself and your own comments. Deal with it.
Ok, anything that says something about Trump and administration response to covid is political comment, got it.
Just keep the replies strictly on how the administration dealt/deals with Covid.
In interest of disclosure, and maybe I should have done it sooner, I work as a critical care physician in tertiary hospital with 30+ ICU beds so I'll see a lot of this.
When I say the response had been poor and is far behind I base it on real stuff, not what is said on TV. And I know other hospitals are in a similar situation.
Just this morning the administration told us we are running out of protective equipment and alluded we should take one for the team. Let that sink in for a moment and tell me later how fun is that.
The testing still takes now than 3 days before it comes back, we have no idea if we or others have been exposed. The logistics are a nightmare and it's difficult to keep the medical personal and other patients from getting infected.
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There are some who will find it unpleasant, most wont care. I keep my cards pretty close to the chest and would not discuss with them how or when I made the images unless they were complicate in hiring me.
Plus I edit people out of images all of the time by just taking several dozen shots within a 5 minute time period. Who's to say how I edited them out.
Like I added to my above post, if people can and now being encouraged to order take out, I shooting exteriors is no big deal. I don't come in contact with people when doing so, especially if I light up a Churchill to keep people away. When you order take out, how many people do you come in contact with?
Edit, there is a large difference between making your own food and paying someone to do it for you. Yesterday I made a new 6 pound wheel of Gouda, which albeit will take 6 months to be ready, a few loaves of bread, a bunch a vegetables, etc. Today I have 3 gallons of beef stew stewing and rendering out tallow from the fat I cut away. I'm doing my part.
To be honest, I think you are over reacting. For someone in your age group, sure, I can understand isolating yourself from the world for a few months. For everyone else, it will just delay the enviable. As I said before, should we just lock ourselves up for three months only to come out and start it all over again, or should we try to build a heard immunity? I vote for the latter.
Even my own mother yesterday, when speaking about my sister's children, told me there is no way she is not seeing her grandchildren. My brother is like you, wants her to stay locked up indefinitely. I can see the concern and err on the side of caution, but she just does not care.
"Death smiles at us all, all a man can do is smile back."
This is an interesting read, I can't vouch for the accuracy of the summary but you can decide if its valid.
For me it comes down to this...How many people do you think is ok if they die from this.?
https://imgur.com/gallery/HAHU4vg
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This is an interesting read, I can't vouch for the accuracy of the summary but you can decide if its valid.
For me it comes down to this...How many people do you think is ok if they die from this.?
https://imgur.com/gallery/HAHU4vg
Thank you for this. If we can keep like this I'm all good.
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Ok, anything that says something about Trump and administration response to covid is political comment, got it.
Just keep the replies strictly on how the administration dealt/deals with Covid.
In interest of disclosure, and maybe I should have done it sooner, I work as a critical care physician in tertiary hospital with 30+ ICU beds so I'll see a lot of this.
When I say the response had been poor and is far behind I base it on real stuff, not what is said on TV. And I know other hospitals are in a similar situation.
Just this morning the administration told us we are running out of protective equipment and alluded we should take one for the team. Let that sink in for a moment and tell me later how fun is that.
The testing still takes now than 3 days before it comes back, we have no idea if we or others have been exposed. The logistics are a nightmare and it's difficult to keep the medical personal and other patients from getting infected.
No one is dismissing your service, and thank you for it. I don't think Trump has been perfect, but I also don't think anyone in his position would be. You seem to think otherwise even though you have no real clue what is going on inside the power structure and what roadblocks are/were in place. I don't either. Instead you continue to take cheap shots. So be it, thats your choice.
This thing is a mess and you are dealing with the front lines. Thanks.
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The civic duty in Japan and South Korea is likely far higher than US, and most countries for that matter.
Yep. The initial response looks alarmist and but in retrospect it was not enough.
We haven't gotten to the point of doing retrospection.
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Les, 10,000 dead is a lot, and especially if your know one of them. But from a statistical point of view, by comparison, 500,000 people died from the regular flu in the world last year. The current situation seems to have settle down in Korea and China, I believe. Let's hope this thing burns out quickly.
But the reason things seem to have slowed down in China and South Korea is because of the measures they took to flatten the curve...which so many here seem to be bitching about. If China and South Korea just went about their normal daily business, I think we'd all be seeing a much different picture. Now look at Italy which delayed doing what China and South Korea did and we are seeing the results. Now they are in panic mode and under a much tighter lock down than anything we have in North America.
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I am very much for keeping big, uncrowded parks and beaches open; for one thing, as a preventive for cabin fever which should help compliance with other restrictions. But using club houses and changing rooms seem at odds with “distancing” and with the new US rules on gatherings of more than 10. Our county parks are all open but with all events cancelled, which seems a good balance.
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They are not intended as cheap shots despite what you think, I'm frustrated beyond belief how fucked up this is.
At least some of those road blocks are self made: when you say that you expect this to be better soon and is almost contained when everybody with a medical degree/epidemiologist knows it's not true, you are just calling it on yourself.
But this is for the history to decide, it's too late to finger the blame. As I said, regardless of what mistakes were made or not, we are in this together and we need to work together.
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This is an interesting read, I can't vouch for the accuracy of the summary but you can decide if its valid.
For me it comes down to this...How many people do you think is ok if they die from this.?
https://imgur.com/gallery/HAHU4vg
Well that's complicated and it is not like I can really put a number on it, which you obviously knew when you penned that question.
We cant prevent everyone from dying from it, so some death is inevitable, just like with everything else. Putting in draconian measures aimed to prevent all loss of life while at the same time destroying people's lives economically is unacceptable in my opinion.
Like I said, I'll deal with limited outside activities, but my support of this drops like a boulder off a cliff if you start threatening my shelter, my house. Likewise, I will not support absurd measures such as restricting hikes outside. The beach thing posted yesterday, after thinking about it, was more likely in response to spring breakers, who will party in close contact with each other. However, not allowing walking alone or with your spouse on a beach is absurd. I don't live near a beach, but if the city suddenly does not want to allow hiking in Wissahicken Park, a 23 mile long 2000+ acre property almost entirely forest, I'll be down there the day the measure is in place.
We are obviously not going the way of Italy, which did nothing at first and continued to import cheap workers from China to Milan after the outbreak was obvious. We closed off travel rather fast, so I feel we have already flattened the curve a good deal.
But at the same time, Italy has had enough exposure to develop heard immunity, as had Wuhan. Perhaps one of the reasons Wuhan is getting back to normal is because their immunity has stopped it from spreading. If we dont develop this here, this may not be the case.
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We haven't gotten to the point of doing retrospection.
Yes, unfortunately we are far from that point.
Historically this is how the responses have been evaluated. Time will tell although I'm quite positive this time won't be any different.
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Yes, I guess it depends on your background too and which source your more comfortable this. I think you have a background in basic sciences and I see why this would be your best source. I have a medical background and gravitate towards the more clinical articles.
Good to have both in this times although information overload is a danger and there is a current rush of so so quality data.
Everybody is in overdrive reading and searching now trying to figure it out how to best approach this. We are awfully unprepared despite having so much warning time. In the hospital where I work we are already in protective equipment sparring mode despite the fact we have yet to get the first confirmed case. It's just a matter of time, the confirmed cases are getting closer and closer and with a 3+ days to get the test results back we might already have some.
Can you tell us where you live, or within 100 miles?
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Like I said, I dont see the point to it to a full shut down for 45 days or more. Two to three weeks to help flatten the curve, then take measures to protect older people, and let others get back to their lives.
Are you an epidemiologist? If not, what makes you think you know better than people who dedicate their lives to studying these things?
This is why we have experts. Epidemiologists are our best resource for guidance. Definitely not politicians who are not listening to epidemiologists.
It sucks for sure but it will suck more if we don't take their advice.
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Are you an epidemiologist? If not, what makes you think you know better than people who dedicate their lives to studying these things?
This is why we have experts. Epidemiologists are our best resource for guidance. Definitely not politicians who are not listening to epidemiologists.
It sucks for sure but it will suck more if we don't take their advice.
Matt, I am speaking from the standpoint of the American mindset. We just dont care for government telling us what to do. It is our very nature, end of story, good or bad.
Do you really think that you can put every expert in the world on TV telling us we need to stay inside indefinite and Americans will actually care. I got news for you, unless death visits us perceptively, it's going to break.
I am just being a realist here. There needs to be plans in place when the damn opens and people start going back outside regardless if big brother wants us to or not.
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Well that's complicated and it is not like I can really put a number on it, which you obviously knew when you penned that question.
We cant prevent everyone from dying from it, so some death is inevitable, just like with everything else. Putting in draconian measures aimed to prevent all loss of life while at the same time destroying people's lives economically is unacceptable in my opinion.
Like I said, I'll deal with limited outside activities, but my support of this drops like a boulder off a cliff if you start threatening my shelter, my house. Likewise, I will not support absurd measures such as restricting hikes outside. The beach thing posted yesterday, after thinking about it, was more likely in response to spring breakers, who will party in close contact with each other. However, not allowing walking alone or with your spouse on a beach is absurd. I don't live near a beach, but if the city suddenly does not want to allow hiking in Wissahicken Park, a 23 mile long 2000+ acre property almost entirely forest, I'll be down there the day the measure is in place.
We are obviously not going the way of Italy, which did nothing at first and continued to import cheap workers from China to Milan after the outbreak was obvious. We closed off travel rather fast, so I feel we have already flattened the curve a good deal.
But at the same time, Italy has had enough exposure to develop heard immunity, as had Wuhan. Perhaps one of the reasons Wuhan is getting back to normal is because their immunity has stopped it from spreading. If we dont develop this here, this may not be the case.
I'll say it once again, the economy will eventually recover, dead people won't get the chance.
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We are obviously not going the way of Italy, which did nothing at first and continued to import cheap workers from China to Milan after the outbreak was obvious. We closed off travel rather fast, so I feel we have already flattened the curve a good deal.
Just a hunch on your part regarding we already flattened the curve. Any real data. Right now we just don't have enough testing to really know. Looking at the detection and death rates...we are accelerating.
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Matt, I am speaking from the standpoint of the American mindset. We just dont care for government telling us what to do. It is our very nature, end of story, good or bad.
Do you really think that you can put every expert in the world on TV telling us we need to stay inside indefinite and Americans will actually care. I got news for you, unless death visits us perceptively, it's going to break.
I am just being a realist here. There needs to be plans in place when the damn opens and people start going back outside regardless if big brother wants us to or not.
That's a sad society.
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You may not need access but you still need the blessing of the clients. Some may be a bit put off by the fact you might be disregarding warnings just to make images. Others maybe not. Have you considered how it might appear to new, potential clients when they ask you how you got these image of buildings with no people and you tell tell them you made them during the Covid-19 crisis...when people were asked to stay home? That might not be a comment some will want to hear.
added on edit:
There is a marked difference between eating and making images....
Reputations take a very long time to build and a very short time to destroy.
In the end only you can decide how you will respond to this. I wish you well with your choices.
I don;t know how some people are going to survive. My wife and I decided to give our cleaning girl who comes once a week, part of her pay to help her out even though we cancelled her services for now. We offered her full check but she's proud and wouldn't take it. We understand. She barely speaks English but she's a real sweet girl.
We don't want anyone in our house especially because we're over 65. Everyone's cancelled their cleaning services in our community, I'm guessing as everyone's old here. So all the cleaning girls are not working. How many scores in just in our township?? How are people going to survive living week to week? We will continue to get our SS and pension checks, well I hope so. So we should be OK if we don;t get the virus.
The thousand dollar check the Feds are giving will only delay unemployment checks with little net benefit to the unemployed. State unemployment usually does not kick in until all vacation and all other payments from being out of work end. So I don't see it helping that much unless you're unemployed (retired) like me and don't have to worry about salaries. The thing doesn't make sense.
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Just a hunch on your part regarding we already flattened the curve. Any real data. Right now we just don't have enough testing to really know. Looking at the detection and death rates...we are accelerating.
I'm just going by the word of Dr. Fauci who said closing off the border as quickly as we did greatly helped us avoid becoming like Italy. You know, that same Dr. Fauci who is the leading expert in the country right now.
He also is in favor of a 14 day national shutdown, which I would be okay with as well. But I think this is the realistic limit of what most Americans will care to do. At a certain point, people will thumb their nose at the government in this country. Like I said, I am just being a realist here.
I was talking to brother yesterday, who is a far left wing let government control everything type of guy who is totally for shutting down the country for a couple of months. In Harrisburg they shut down the bars. It lasted a full day before a couple opened again, and there were plenty of patrons waiting to get in.
Now if I were the bar owner, I would like to believe I would last more then 24 hours. But some wont, and if I owned the bar across the street and saw my competitor open without any consequences, I would eventually be opening too, maybe not that day, but the next?
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Just this morning the administration told us we are running out of protective equipment and alluded we should take one for the team. Let that sink in for a moment and tell me later how fun is that.
This line in your post just struck me...
Who caused this problem? Its not a goventmental issue unless there is some rule I don't know about that lmits the supplies a hospital can keep on hand. This strikes me as an issue that the hospital caused itself. Why are your stocks so low you cant handle something like this, at least for the short term?
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I'll say it once again, the economy will eventually recover, dead people won't get the chance.
Seems like it's ok with people as long as they are not the ones that die.
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Just a hunch on your part regarding we already flattened the curve. Any real data. Right now we just don't have enough testing to really know. Looking at the detection and death rates...we are accelerating.
I'm afraid you are right. Now we might not get that bad but now I'm in the mindset of worst case scenario.
Can you tell us where you live, or within 100 miles?
Kalamazoo, Michigan. Cases are coming our way from Detroit (probably the first spot), Ann Arbor and Grand Rapids. Chicago had positive cases long ago also.
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This line in your post just struck me...
Who caused this problem? Its not a goventmental issue unless there is some rule I don't know about that lmits the supplies a hospital can keep on hand. This strikes me as an issue that the hospital caused itself. Why are your stocks so low you cant handle something like this, at least for the short term?
Hospitals have some blame for certain, but this is a huge nationwide system and others are in similar situation. US has an emergency supply for cases like this but they figured most mask are expired and that the supply is actually tiny for the needs of an epidemic, the first thing why the supply exist. It's incredible that we knew about this for 2 months now and yet we are still not ready.
As I said before, there are screw ups at multiple levels.
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Matt, I am speaking from the standpoint of the American mindset. We just dont care for government telling us what to do. It is our very nature, end of story, good or bad.
Do you really think that you can put every expert in the world on TV telling us we need to stay inside indefinite and Americans will actually care. I got news for you, unless death visits us perceptively, it's going to break.
I am just being a realist here. There needs to be plans in place when the damn opens and people start going back outside regardless if big brother wants us to or not.
I understand the mindset you are illustrating. I wish we weren't being restricted too. I just had my salary cut and my small business has pretty much dried up, at least for the moment.
But I feel like this is bigger than me and my wants and needs. I need to get with the program and do what I can for us all because like it or not, we are all in this together.
I think too many Americans are selfish and don't trust science and institutions that exist to protect us. The current political climate has only exacerbated this to the extreme.
I expect older citizens who are disregarding the restrictions will somewhat self-select for elimination which is unfortunate but they will do it to themselves (mostly).
The ones that really concern me are the younger people who are unlikely or believe they are unlikely to get very sick so they go on as usual, possibly infecting many, many more people who may pay the ultimate price.
Edit to add: no we can't put all the experts on TV but if our leaders can listen to qualified people's recommendations and put them into action, that will save lives. Even the lives of doubters.
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I understand the mindset you are illustrating. I wish we weren't being restricted too. I just had my salary cut and my small business has pretty much dried up, at least for the moment.
But I feel like this is bigger than me and my wants and needs. I need to get with the program and do what I can for us all because like it or not, we are all in this together.
I think too many Americans are selfish and don't trust science and institutions that exist to protect us. The current political climate has only exacerbated this to the extreme.
I expect older citizens who are disregarding the restrictions will somewhat self-select for elimination which is unfortunate but they will do it to themselves (mostly).
The ones that really concern me are the younger people who are unlikely or believe they are unlikely to get very sick so they go on as usual, possibly infecting many, many more people who may pay the ultimate price.
Young people die too, the Chinese doctor who was a whistleblower and died was 34 or 36. And if you don't die it doesn't mean that you are doing great. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger doesn't apply too well in medicine.
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I'm just going by the word of Dr. Fauci who said closing off the border as quickly as we did greatly helped us avoid becoming like Italy. You know, that same Dr. Fauci who is the leading expert in the country right now.
He also is in favor of a 14 day national shutdown, which I would be okay with as well. But I think this is the realistic limit of what most Americans will care to do. At a certain point, people will thumb their nose at the government in this country. Like I said, I am just being a realist here.
I watched Fauci yesterday and I heard 14 days..for now with a need to revisit. I'm going from memory but I'm old...
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I watched Fauci yesterday and I heard 14 days..for now with a need to revisit. I'm going from memory but I'm old...
If deaths don't skyrocket in 14 days, it's not going to matter how many experts you put on TV. Americans will just be Americans.
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I'm afraid you are right. Now we might not get that bad but now I'm in the mindset of worst case scenario.
Kalamazoo, Michigan. Cases are coming our way from Detroit (probably the first spot), Ann Arbor and Grand Rapids. Chicago had positive cases long ago also.
Well, I'm 40-50 miles from NYC with loads of people here who commute to NYC. In fact, I was in NYC just a few days ago at a dentist and doctor. So it seems to be picking up here but not too heavy as far as I can tell. The panicking seems worse than what seems to be happening. So far.
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...
But at the same time, Italy has had enough exposure to develop heard immunity, as had Wuhan. Perhaps one of the reasons Wuhan is getting back to normal is because their immunity has stopped it from spreading. If we dont develop this here, this may not be the case.
If that's true I don't think it applies to US anymore, Wuhan was enclosed, here we have cases everywhere. Plus I thought I saw some reports that the epidemics might not be that contained as China says, and next thing I hear China is throwing out New York Times, Washington Post and Wall Street Journal journalists.
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Hospitals have some blame for certain, but this is a huge nationwide system and others are in similar situation. US has an emergency supply for cases like this but they figured most mask are expired and that the supply is actually tiny for the needs of an epidemic, the first thing why the supply exist. It's incredible that we knew about this for 2 months now and yet we are still not ready.
As I said before, there are screw ups at multiple levels.
Other countries did the same thing. Not much. No one shut things down until it seemed real. We didn't fight the Japanese or Nazis until Pearl Harbor was bombed and we lost half of our Navy. The initial troops we trained after that used broomsticks for rifles when they marched until the real guns were made available. No one did anything about Bin Laden until 9-11 even though we knew what was up with him for years before. No one's going to do much regarding climate change until we're up to our necks in sea water. It's how the world works.
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If that's true I don't think it applies to US anymore, Wuhan was enclosed, here we have cases everywhere. Plus I thought I saw some reports that the epidemics might not be that contained as China says, and next thing I hear China is throwing out New York Times, Washington Post and Wall Street Journal journalists.
I am not too please about this. However, I think China is trying to distort the narrative here through propaganda. For instance, the idea that saying this is the Wuhan Virus or the China Virus being racist originally came from Chinese propaganda. Trump's refusal to give in here may be part of the reasons for kicking journalists out.
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I saw that yesterday (published online) and several more like it. I find it interesting that companies and researchers are sticking to protocols despite the urgency of the problem -- that they have a possible drug that could be effective but they still go through these bureaucratic forms of testing and approval. The testing I see, both for efficacy and safety, but I would think that in the current case, if they see some efficacy and no major red flags regarding safety, they would begin immediate bulk manufacturing and the bureaucratic approvals would be short-circuited to get it out there. In the case of Washington state, there were a couple of weeks of back-and-forth on who had the right to test and who had the power to approve testing before people were allowed to test, even though the tests were obviously working. That was ridiculous.
Among other things I think Congress needs to do, is some kind of protection against lawsuits for pharmaceutical companies who do abbreviated trials of Covus-19 treatments, especially those aimed at critical cases. If somebody is 95% likely to die, I don't think we need a drug that has been proven to be 100% safe.
Alan Goldhamer could add more to this point, but I think there are many ways to shorten testing especially in situations like this one. Certainly the CDC has been given a lot of ,power to make decision from what I her from Dr. Fauci.
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I saw that yesterday (published online) and several more like it. I find it interesting that companies and researchers are sticking to protocols despite the urgency of the problem -- that they have a possible drug that could be effective but they still go through these bureaucratic forms of testing and approval. The testing I see, both for efficacy and safety, but I would think that in the current case, if they see some efficacy and no major red flags regarding safety, they would begin immediate bulk manufacturing and the bureaucratic approvals would be short-circuited to get it out there. In the case of Washington state, there were a couple of weeks of back-and-forth on who had the right to test and who had the power to approve testing before people were allowed to test, even though the tests were obviously working. That was ridiculous.
Among other things I think Congress needs to do, is some kind of protection against lawsuits for pharmaceutical companies who do abbreviated trials of Covus-19 treatments, especially those aimed at critical cases. If somebody is 95% likely to die, I don't think we need a drug that has been proven to be 100% safe.
Alan Goldhamer could add more to this point, but I think there are many ways to shorten testing especially in situations like this one. Certainly the CDC has been given a lot of ,power to make decision from what I her from Dr. Fauci. But the reason things seem to have slowed down in China and South Korea is because of the measures they took to flatten the curve...which so many here seem to be bitching about. If China and South Korea just went about their normal daily business, I think we'd all be seeing a much different picture. Now look at Italy which delayed doing what China and South Korea did and we are seeing the results. Now they are in panic mode and under a much tighter lock down than anything we have in North America.
OK Well we're now doing a lot. Government is responding to public pressure, watching and listening to what voters say. That's what happens in a democracy. We're not Red China. Most lockdown comes locally because the federal government does not have the power. State government and local authorities do. So the latter are acting much more tough according to what they hear locally. That's how America works. Other countries are ruled more from the top. What most people forget, is that local government rules affect us more with our day-to-day activities.
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I understand the mindset you are illustrating. I wish we weren't being restricted too. I just had my salary cut and my small business has pretty much dried up, at least for the moment.
But I feel like this is bigger than me and my wants and needs. I need to get with the program and do what I can for us all because like it or not, we are all in this together.
I think too many Americans are selfish and don't trust science and institutions that exist to protect us. The current political climate has only exacerbated this to the extreme.
I expect older citizens who are disregarding the restrictions will somewhat self-select for elimination which is unfortunate but they will do it to themselves (mostly).
The ones that really concern me are the younger people who are unlikely or believe they are unlikely to get very sick so they go on as usual, possibly infecting many, many more people who may pay the ultimate price.
Edit to add: no we can't put all the experts on TV but if our leaders can listen to qualified people's recommendations and put them into action, that will save lives. Even the lives of doubters.
The problem is experts have differing opinions. Ever listen to stock market reviews? It's why we have bears and bulls. Why do we have such differing opinions in these forums? Same with many scientific and economic things. Then you have politicians and newspapers who spin the news and facts to fit their own agenda. The poor guy on the street like us is just confused and finds it hard to believe anyone. That's why politicians, media, and so many other have so low levels of trust. Also, even experts can't read the future. They don't have crystal balls. This seems like a new situation we haven;t faced before. Also, fighting the last war may not be the way to fight the new one. History has a way of surprising us. God too.
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I saw that yesterday (published online) and several more like it. I find it interesting that companies and researchers are sticking to protocols despite the urgency of the problem -- that they have a possible drug that could be effective but they still go through these bureaucratic forms of testing and approval. The testing I see, both for efficacy and safety, but I would think that in the current case, if they see some efficacy and no major red flags regarding safety, they would begin immediate bulk manufacturing and the bureaucratic approvals would be short-circuited to get it out there. In the case of Washington state, there were a couple of weeks of back-and-forth on who had the right to test and who had the power to approve testing before people were allowed to test, even though the tests were obviously working. That was ridiculous.
Among other things I think Congress needs to do, is some kind of protection against lawsuits for pharmaceutical companies who do abbreviated trials of Covus-19 treatments, especially those aimed at critical cases. If somebody is 95% likely to die, I don't think we need a drug that has been proven to be 100% safe.
John, they can do a lot of this under existing FDA regulations. The real problem is that some drugs are in scarce supply and manufacturing will be difficult. The company wants to make sure it works before committing a lot resources to manufacture. It's not just money, but that the chemistry behind some of these compounds is complex. Every drug that I am aware of has undergone some type of safety testing and a lot of them are already approved for other uses. There is nothing that stops investigators from trying out such drugs, if they are available, in trials. The important thing is to get the clinical efficacy data ASAP and get it out there.
I think this will happen.
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He also is in favor of a 14 day national shutdown, which I would be okay with as well. But I think this is the realistic limit of what most Americans will care to do. At a certain point, people will thumb their nose at the government in this country. Like I said, I am just being a realist here.
they already have as has been shown of all the college aged people still partying in Florida. Maybe they get mild cases and maybe they come home and infect other family members including elder relatives.
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Does ultraviolet kill viruses?
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Sam Harris has made two recent podcasts about Covid-19 available free of charge.
https://samharris.org/podcasts/190-respond-coronavirus/ (https://samharris.org/podcasts/190-respond-coronavirus/)
https://samharris.org/podcasts/191-early-thoughts-pandemic/ (https://samharris.org/podcasts/191-early-thoughts-pandemic/)
Be prepared, there is some criticism of the US government's early response and it's very uncomplimentary.
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they already have as has been shown of all the college aged people still partying in Florida. Maybe they get mild cases and maybe they come home and infect other family members including elder relatives.
I will, this is being stupid. I spent my spring breaks rowing 8 hours, sleeping 14 and eating for 2 everyday.
Just to put some numbers out their, death toll is at 100 today in the USA since our first case two months ago. 102 will die in car accidents today alone. 7400 will die overall. A full 1000 people died of the Swine Flu before anyone really started talking about it.
Just some perspective.
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The problem is experts have differing opinions. Ever listen to stock market reviews? It's why we have bears and bulls. Why do we have such differing opinions in these forums? Same with many scientific and economic things. Then you have politicians and newspapers who spin the news and facts to fit their own agenda. The poor guy on the street like us is just confused and finds it hard to believe anyone. That's why politicians, media, and so many other have so low levels of trust. Also, even experts can't read the future. They don't have crystal balls. This seems like a new situation we haven;t faced before. Also, fighting the last war may not be the way to fight the new one. History has a way of surprising us. God too.
Your generalizations are obscuring the facts. Your assertion that stock market reviews are somehow "scientific" is simply ludicrous. It's an irrelevant analogy.
No one cares what politicians and spin doctors say. This discussion stopped being political a while ago, but no one told the politicians. The experts in epidemiology have been singing from the same songbook for a long time, it's just no one listened hard enough. And this is most definitely NOT something new. The progress of the disease is tracking just like the previous ones. This is very well known, it's just that no one (or almost no one) reads the books or watches the science documentaries. Sometimes, experts can predict the future very accurately.
Listen to those two podcasts I referred to above from Sam Harris. When they get to the spot when they criticize the past performance of the Trump administration, do your best to ignore it and persevere, listen to the rest. You complain that you don't have the right information, well it's all there, just go listen to it. No one is hiding anything from you.
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Stanford epidemiologist John Ioannidis is calling for a little more calmness and not to throw caution into the wind when it comes to the economy.
A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/)
I'll be keeping a cool head, looking at this analytically and following his lead here. It just seems like there is so much hysteria out there, and on this forum, which I will be tuning out this point forward. You have a logical response based on real numbers, I'm all ears, otherwise it's not something I will be caring too much about. Neither I nor my wife can make sense of this hysteria and we both feel it is not a good thing to feed into it anymore.
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Does ultraviolet kill viruses?
Probably, so if you're someplace warm, walk around naked for a while. Post the pics. :)
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Young people die too, the Chinese doctor who was a whistleblower and died was 34 or 36. And if you don't die it doesn't mean that you are doing great. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger doesn't apply too well in medicine.
A flu caused me some mild but irreversible hearing lost in my left ear around 8 years ago, I was only 30 at the time. So yeah, you get well but these things sometimes leave scars.
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As I mentioned before, in Philly only major felonies police will be making arrests. For instance, all drug related offenses are now not going to warrant an arrest.
Lets say in Philly, taking these measure, 100 people are saved from the WuFlu, but 100 people overdose and die.
Was it worth it?
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As I mentioned before, in Philly only major felonies police will be making arrests. For instance, all drug related offenses are now not going to warrant an arrest.
Lets say in Philly, taking these measure, 100 people are saved from the WuFlu, but 100 people overdose and die.
Was it worth it?
The sooner they de-criminalize drugs and get them out of the hands of the cartels the better off everyone will be.
My point is that your comparison doesn't illuminate much.
During that same timeframe, how many will die in traffic accidents or in gun shootings, etc. If that action prevents contagious contact with 1000 other people, it might make sense. All we ever do is balance things.
I think you're worrying far too much about what some lame jurisdiction is trying to do on beaches and gold courses. It's a dumb thing to do but is it anything more than a forgettable hiccup in the grand scheme of things? Who is going to launch an armed revolution over access to a beach? This is a non-issue that will disappear soon. I mean, seriously, who is going to enforce it, they probably already can't stop all the people running red lights, which really is actually dangerous. There are more important battles to fight.
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The sooner they de-criminalize drugs and get them out of the hands of the cartels the better off everyone will be.
My point is that your comparison doesn't illuminate much.
During that same timeframe, how many will die in traffic accidents or in gun shootings, etc. If that action prevents contagious contact with 1000 other people, it might make sense. All we ever do is balance things.
I think you're worrying far too much about what some lame jurisdiction is trying to do on beaches and gold courses. It's a dumb thing to do but is it anything more than a forgettable hiccup in the grand scheme of things? Who is going to launch an armed revolution over access to a beach? This is a non-issue that will disappear soon. I mean, seriously, who is going to enforce it, they probably already can't stop all the people running red lights, which really is actually dangerous. There are more important battles to fight.
Your eyes are closed if you actually think this way.
I am very libertarian and use to feel the same way; if someone wants to use drugs, why would that bother me attitude. Then CA, for all intents and purposes, legalized all drug use. You can't arrest someone in CA with out them having at least $1000 worth of drugs on them, and you cant mandate a person go to rehab. What did we get for this?
A homeless crisis. Shit and piss on the street. Parks covered in needles and other drug paraphernalia. Addicts sleeping in store doorways, shutting down businesses. With the exception of weed, you cant make drugs legal without serious effects on the community. I have completely changed my point of view on this in the last year.
And no, homelessness does not cause drug use. It is drug use that causes homelessness; ask any addiction specialists.
I was listening to a pod cast on this today. You know cant take away a homeless person's possessions in CA. Sounds like a good policy until you note the fact that if a homeless person hoards his feces, it is legally considered a possession and you cant take it away from him. Many homeless people hoard their feces.
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https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/03/17/donations-masks-hospitals-ppe
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/health/doctors-coronavirus-health-care-hit-harder/index.html
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What are you planning to do with your $2000 check from the government?
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What are you planning to do with your $2000 check from the government?
Invest it is the stock market. Could easily double that by the end of the year.
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Does ultraviolet kill viruses?
Yes, and it's one of the reasons why viral infections are less common during summer months. Heat, UV and humidity reduce viral population in the environment. The best thing continues to frequent hand washing. Make sure you also frequently apply a moisturizer to prevent the skin from drying out.
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Sadly it's likely there will be contributors to LuLa who will die due to the selfishness of their neighbours.
Happily it's likely there will be contributors to LuLa who will live due to the selflessness of their neighbours.
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Oh give me a break, your eyes are closed if you actually think this way.
I am very libertarian and use to feel the same way; if someone wants to use drugs, why would that bother me attitude. Then CA, for all intents and purposes, legalized all drug use. You can't arrest someone in CA with out them having at least $1000 worth of drugs on them, and you cant mandate a person go to rehab. What did we get for this?
A homeless crisis. Shit and piss on the street. Parks covered in needles and other drug paraphernalia. Addicts sleeping in store doorways, shutting down businesses. With the exception of weed, you cant make drugs legal without serious effects on the community.
And no, homelessness does not cause drug use. It is drug use that causes homelessness; ask any addiction specialists.
At no point in my adult life (I'm about to be 67) was there ever a time when I couldn't get any drug I wanted with a couple of phone calls. And I don't use any.
They can't keep drugs out of prisons. Where all the doors are locked and you know everyone who goes in or out.
The "war on drugs" hasn't halted or even much slowed down the flow of drugs. Not for a minute. People have always been able to get anything they wanted despite the fact that most countries on earth criminalize drugs. Criminal drug cartels have become a large economic force in the world since the war on drugs began, maybe because of the war on drugs some argue.
Laws and law enforcement have not prevented anyone from being able to buy illegal drugs. This is even true in Tehran, a place with more stringent laws than the US.
I have no idea what's going on in California. Maybe all the country's indigents move there because of the weather, for all I know. Your description of the root problem there is almost certainly incomplete, at best.
How can there be anyone left who thinks that what we've done and continue to do is working? Where is the evidence.
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they already have as has been shown of all the college aged people still partying in Florida. Maybe they get mild cases and maybe they come home and infect other family members including elder relatives.
The beaches and bars are closed now, so all the college aged people will be partying indoors in their hotel rooms and apartments.
Spring break may be in full swing, but now it’s getting a buzz-killing dose of coronavirus reality.
Both Fort Lauderdale and Miami Beach, where spring breakers were expected to flood into town through early April, are closing their beaches in an attempt to contain the spread of COVID-19. Both cities are also ordering bars and restaurants to close by 10 p.m. and cap crowds at 250 people to get a grip on the pandemic.
“We cannot become a petri dish for a very dangerous virus,” Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber said Sunday during a joint news conference at Miami Beach City Hall. “Spring break is over. The party is over.”
Fort Lauderdale beach — the sandy section — will be closed from Harbor Drive north to Oakland Park Boulevard. Miami Beach will close the beach from Fifth Street to 15th Street —the uber trendy section known as South Beach. Even its public parking garages will close and an 11 p.m. curfew will be strictly enforced.
Fort Lauderdale’s rules are in effect now through April 12. Violators can risk a $500 fine or 60 days in jail.
“We clearly want to encourage voluntary compliance, but we could arrest or issue notices to appear if necessary," Fort Lauderdale City Manager Chris Lagerbloom said.
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At no point in my adult life (I'm about to be 67) was there ever a time when I couldn't get any drug I wanted with a couple of phone calls. And I don't use any.
They can't keep drugs out of prisons. Where all the doors are locked and you know everyone who goes in or out.
The "war on drugs" hasn't halted or even much slowed down the flow of drugs. Not for a minute. People have always been able to get anything they wanted despite the fact that most countries on earth criminalize drugs. Criminal drug cartels have become a large economic force in the world since the war on drugs began, maybe because of the war on drugs some argue.
Laws and law enforcement have not prevented anyone from being able to buy illegal drugs. This is even true in Tehran, a place with more stringent laws than the US.
I have no idea what's going on in California. Maybe all the country's indigents move there because of the weather, for all I know. Your description of the root problem there is almost certainly incomplete, at best.
How can there be anyone left who thinks that what we've done and continue to do is working? Where is the evidence.
Not in my entire life have I ever talked to one criminal who said, you know what, that lock on that door kept me from trying. Seriously, what are the stats on how many thefts are deterred by the presence of a lock. I dont mean attempted and failed, I mean someone looking at a lock and saying, I'll move on to somewhere else. You know what though, even given the lack of data, it does happen, and happens a lot.
You would be foolish to think the laws dont deter drug use.
Insofar as CA's problems, it is becoming more and more apparent it is due to drug addiction and the fact cops cant stop it.
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Sadly it's likely there will be contributors to LuLa who will die due to the selfishness of their neighbours.
Happily it's likely there will be contributors to LuLa who will live due to the selflessness of their neighbours.
Sounds very much like what the militant environmentalists were campaigning on all last year.
What if this sparks a war? Not that difficult to do so under stressed economic conditions. Those dead solders and innocent civilians wont recover either Keith.
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Does ultraviolet kill viruses?
Only if you wear a speedo.
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I'm afraid you are right. Now we might not get that bad but now I'm in the mindset of worst case scenario.
Kalamazoo, Michigan. Cases are coming our way from Detroit (probably the first spot), Ann Arbor and Grand Rapids. Chicago had positive cases long ago also.
I'm close. Fort Wayne IN, no cases here yet either.
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If deaths don't skyrocket in 14 days, it's not going to matter how many experts you put on TV. Americans will just be Americans.
If deaths don't skyrocket then lets hope Americans follow the rules.
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If deaths don't skyrocket then lets hope Americans follow the rules.
I'll post this again just in case you missed it.
A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/?fbclid=IwAR0BXCFkVbhWHd27buncCynKfVDPEfy2luhvudb73GVHTLlQhw2ub1Z6BqM)
"This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future."
Everyone is being hysterical right now. Dont call me crazy when I am merely looking at this logically.
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Les, 10,000 dead is a lot, and especially if your know one of them. But from a statistical point of view, by comparison, 500,000 people died from the regular flu in the world last year. The current situation seems to have settle down in Korea and China, I believe. Let's hope this thing burns out quickly.
10,000 will be the global death count by Friday, March 20. At the current rate (600-700 dead per day, about half of it just in Italy), it will take only 14 days for the death count to double. Worth mentioning is the fact, that Italy's number of deaths is quickly approaching those in China (2978 vs 3237), and later this week Italy will become the country with the highest Covid-19 death toll.
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I'll post this again just in case you missed it.
A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/?fbclid=IwAR0BXCFkVbhWHd27buncCynKfVDPEfy2luhvudb73GVHTLlQhw2ub1Z6BqM)
Everyone is being hysterical right now. Dont call me crazy when I am merely looking at this logically.
I read that eariler in the day well before you posted it. The thing is I have also read any number of items saying the exact opposite. We can cherry pick to our hearts content. I'm in a risk group. My wife is in a risk group. My Mother, Father and Father in Law are in a risk group. One of my sisters is in a risk group. I have skin in the game. I can't tell you if I'm right or you are right but this I know. I'm going to all I can to keep these people and myself safe. I don't care what it costs me. If the government says these are the rules I will follow them and I expect everyone else to follow them regardless of how they feel about the rules or the government.
Its easy to say everyone is being hysterical when you are not in a risk group. What's hard is to think of your neighbor and how your actions might effect them.
Not to make this personal but way too many people don't seem to give a dang becuse they think they are immune to the problem. Logic on this issue depends on your perspective.
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10,000 will be the global death count by Friday, March 20. At the current rate (600-700 dead per day, about half of it just in Italy), it will take only 14 days for the death count to double. Worth mentioning is the fact, that Italy's number of deaths is quickly approaching those in China (2978 vs 3237), and later this week Italy will become the country with the highest Covid-19 death toll.
It should be noted that these death tolls are being limited to some extent to the prevention factors being put in place. Left unchecked I can imagien a much higher numner of dead.
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What are you planning to do with your $2000 check from the government?
It's not at all clear who will receive such payments. If they use last years Adjusted Gross Income above a certain threshold, a number of people will not get checks. We didn't get a check the last time they did this following the financial meltdown. I'm not expecting one this time around either.
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Does ultraviolet kill viruses?
A month ago I got this in preparation :D : https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B071KGVLBB/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o06_s01?ie=UTF8&th=1
(already out of stock now)
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I read that eariler in the day well before you posted it. The thing is I have also read any number of items saying the exact opposite. We can cherry pick to our hearts content. I'm in a risk group. My wife is in a risk group. My Mother, Father and Father in Law are in a risk group. One of my sisters is in a risk group. I have skin in the game. I can't tell you if I'm right or you are right but this I know. I'm going to all I can to keep these people and myself safe. I don't care what it costs me. If the government says these are the rules I will follow them and I expect everyone else to follow them regardless of how they feel about the rules or the government.
Its easy to say everyone is being hysterical when you are not in a risk group. What's hard is to think of your neighbor and how your actions might effect them.
Not to make this personal but way too many people don't seem to give a dang becuse they think they are immune to the problem. Logic on this issue depends on your perspective.
Well Craig, I'm not going to stop looking at this logically, and this goes right back to Alan's point that even our experts are not in agreement.
Lock yourself up for a year if you feel that is the best thing to do for your situation. Maybe if I was your age and had the money I would, or maybe I would take the Dennis Miller route, you cant just put yourself in a state of depression when looking at the end of the world.
I almost never look at things emotionally and practically feel I even lack the ability to do so.
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It's not at all clear who will receive such payments. If they use last years Adjusted Gross Income above a certain threshold, a number of people will not get checks. We didn't get a check the last time they did this following the financial meltdown. I'm not expecting one this time around either.
I seem to remember that the last time they sent out checks, people used them to pay down credit card debt, so they didn't have as much of a stimulus on the economy as was hoped. It seems like a grossly inefficient way to get money in the hands of the truly needy.
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Well Craig, I'm not going to stop looking at this logically, and this goes right back to Alan's point that even our experts are not in agreement.
Lock yourself up for a year if you feel that is the best thing to do for your situation. Maybe if I was your age and had the money I would, or maybe I would take the Dennis Miller route, you cant just put yourself in a state of depression when looking at the end of the world.
I almost never look at things emotionally and practically feel I even lack the ability to do so.
I'm far from depressed and from my position this is the only logical course. Your mileage may vary. But as an American I do expect that you and others follow the rules, whatever they may be, like them or not.
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I seem to remember that the last time they sent out checks, people used them to pay down credit card debt, so they didn't have as much of a stimulus on the economy as was hoped. It seems like a grossly inefficient way to get money in the hands of the truly needy.
That's correct. There are a lot of Americans who have little savings and the paycheck immediately goes to housing, food and other essentials. It's not that there isn't money in the system in the US, there is no where to spend it other than for groceries, prescriptions. Movies, restaurants, theater, etc. are all closed. We had tickets to Guys and Dolls here in DC for today and it was cancelled. Even if you wanted to travel, that's pretty difficult and who knows even if it is risky in terms of contracting COVID. The only thing I've spent money on in the past two weeks was parts for my new PC workstation as my old one was over five years old, and memory sticks were not available so I couldn't upgrade. That's it other than paying bills and buying groceries.
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Well Craig, I'm not going to stop looking at this logically, and this goes right back to Alan's point that even our experts are not in agreement.
Good decision making requires data. Because of the testing snafu here in the US and weird data from all over, nobody can make a decent decision about whether there is a serious pandemic on hand or this is just a bit worse than past virulent flu epidemics. I look at the WHO data each day. Germany has been putting up the lowest mortality numbers as of today; o.2% which is about where the 1918 flu was. It could be this number is too high as it's easier to count dead bodies than it is to count the number of those infected. This is in stark contrast to Italy where the rate is about 9%. Which one is correct? Both countries have universal health coverage and while you might be skeptical of China's numbers, these may be decent enough. The Nordic countries are a shade higher than Germany. Even with those low numbers Germany adopted strong measures to halt spread of the virus.
I will say it one final time, anything one reads or hears at this point is just conjecture. Things may be like Italy or they may be like Germany; we don't know. the only thing that is certain is that people are dying from COVID-19 infections and at this point in time that rate is higher than the seasonal flu.
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I'm far from depressed and from my position this is the only logical course. Your mileage may vary. But as an American I do expect that you and others follow the rules, whatever they may be, like them or not.
I will, to a degree.
If the rules are shut it down for the next 14 or 21 days, I'll play along. If it is for the next 90 and people are not dropping like flies, that is what I would consider illogical and mass hysteria. I will not follow rules that fall into this criteria, I dont care who is putting them forth.
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The problem is experts have differing opinions. Ever listen to stock market reviews? It's why we have bears and bulls. Why do we have such differing opinions in these forums? Same with many scientific and economic things. Then you have politicians and newspapers who spin the news and facts to fit their own agenda. The poor guy on the street like us is just confused and finds it hard to believe anyone. That's why politicians, media, and so many other have so low levels of trust. Also, even experts can't read the future. They don't have crystal balls. This seems like a new situation we haven;t faced before. Also, fighting the last war may not be the way to fight the new one. History has a way of surprising us. God too.
Actual experts on this issue are generally in consensus about the severity of it. But people who play experts on TV have been introducing doubt to the public.
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I will, to a degree.
If the rules are shut it down for the next 14 or 21 days, I'll play along. If it is for the next 90 and people are not dropping like flies, that is what I would consider illogical and mass hysteria. I will not follow rules that fall into this criteria, I dont care who is putting them forth.
I understand your position but it appears to me that you're going out of your way to create confrontation where none exists. No one is curbing your constitutional rights, not in any substantial way. Not yet anyway, not even close. Your elected officials are requesting your assistance in addressing an issue that has society-wide ramifications. Why wouldn't you want to cooperate. Some of them may goof up and make dumb decisions about golf courses and beaches, it happens, so vote them out next time round. People who study these things are erring on the side of caution because the downside risks of not doing that are potentially very high. And all the decisions are being revisited constantly. At this point why would you do it any other way. The virus is out, it cannot be stopped, so all we can do is minimize damage.
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I understand your position but it appears to me that you're going out of your way to create confrontation where none exists. No one is curbing your constitutional rights, not in any substantial way. Not yet anyway, not even close. Your elected officials are requesting your assistance in addressing an issue that has society-wide ramifications. Why wouldn't you want to cooperate. Some of them may goof up and make dumb decisions about golf courses and beaches, it happens, so vote them out next time round. People who study these things are erring on the side of caution because the downside risks of not doing that are potentially very high. And all the decisions are being revisited constantly. At this point why would you do it any other way. The virus is out, it cannot be stopped, so all we can do is minimize damage.
I'm going for a walk. Cheers.
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The lunatics are not all in the asylums.
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I'm going for a walk, outside. Cheers.
Good move. I went out twice today, once to take some photos. It's not often you can do urban photography without a million cars or pedestrians ruining the shot. I'm a sucker for DWC movies (Decline of Western Civilization, post apocalypse, Mad Max Road Warrior), so empty streets and highways are very appealing. We actually still have too much action here, I'll try again early Sunday morning.
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The lunatics are not all in the asylums.
We have a couple down the block. Police were there again last night. Some domestic dispute, I figure.
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We have a couple down the block. Police were there again last night. Some domestic dispute, I figure.
Must have been about the in-house toilet paper allocations.
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the next 14 or 21 days, I'll play along. If it is for the next 90 and people are not dropping like flies, that is what I would consider illogical and mass hysteria. I will not follow rules that fall into this criteria, I dont care who is putting them forth.
Not sure what you are going to be doing. Are you and like minded people going to get in your cars and go have a meet-up in a vacant Walmart parking lot?
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Just saw a report that the Chinese are testing a vaccine candidate and are set to ramp up bulk production.
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The problem is experts have differing opinions. Ever listen to stock market reviews? It's why we have bears and bulls. Why do we have such differing opinions in these forums? Same with many scientific and economic things. Then you have politicians and newspapers who spin the news and facts to fit their own agenda. The poor guy on the street like us is just confused and finds it hard to believe anyone. That's why politicians, media, and so many other have so low levels of trust. Also, even experts can't read the future. They don't have crystal balls. This seems like a new situation we haven;t faced before. Also, fighting the last war may not be the way to fight the new one. History has a way of surprising us. God too.
Right...no one has a crystal ball, but who would you believe in...someone who has devoted their entire life studying the exact problem we want to solve or someone that know f'all about things...but might have a big mouth. No one is perfect and no one knows everything...but I'd place my bets along the experts in the field. What about you...just roll the dice...put head in the sand and hope?
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Your eyes are closed if you actually think this way.
I am very libertarian and use to feel the same way; if someone wants to use drugs, why would that bother me attitude. Then CA, for all intents and purposes, legalized all drug use. You can't arrest someone in CA with out them having at least $1000 worth of drugs on them, and you cant mandate a person go to rehab. What did we get for this?
A homeless crisis. Shit and piss on the street. Parks covered in needles and other drug paraphernalia. Addicts sleeping in store doorways, shutting down businesses. With the exception of weed, you cant make drugs legal without serious effects on the community. I have completely changed my point of view on this in the last year.
And no, homelessness does not cause drug use. It is drug use that causes homelessness; ask any addiction specialists.
I was listening to a pod cast on this today. You know cant take away a homeless person's possessions in CA. Sounds like a good policy until you note the fact that if a homeless person hoards his feces, it is legally considered a possession and you cant take it away from him. Many homeless people hoard their feces.
Where would you rather be homeless in winter, North Dekota or California. Think about it...maybe there are other reasons why the homeless gravitate to California.
As far as drugs go...here in BC there are dispensers that give out hard drugs which don't have fentenal in them and safe drug shootup facilities that have medical staff on hand with clean needles to ensure the shootup goes without an issue.
It's time to treat drug dependencies of all kinds a disease and not a crime.
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Sadly it's likely there will be contributors to LuLa who will die due to the selfishness of their neighbours.
Happily it's likely there will be contributors to LuLa who will live due to the selflessness of their neighbours.
6 members from a care home in Vancouver died because 1 person brought the virus into the facility ( the person did not know they were infected ). That person must feel like shit now. Everyone needs to look at it this way...you can be carrying a bomb on you that can go off at any time.
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Sounds very much like what the militant environmentalists were campaigning on all last year.
What if this sparks a war? Not that difficult to do so under stressed economic conditions. Those dead solders and innocent civilians wont recover either Keith.
Joe...too much TV watching. I suggest switching to Gilgans Island and you'll see life from not such a pessimistic view.
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If deaths don't skyrocket then lets hope Americans follow the rules.
Isn't this isolation plan to prevent deaths from skyrocketing? It's a success not a failure...talk about backwards thinking.
That logic is like buying life insurance today and being pissed off tomorrow because you didn't use it.
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I'll post this again just in case you missed it.
A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/?fbclid=IwAR0BXCFkVbhWHd27buncCynKfVDPEfy2luhvudb73GVHTLlQhw2ub1Z6BqM)
"This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future."
Everyone is being hysterical right now. Dont call me crazy when I am merely looking at this logically.
Judging from your posts...seems like you might be leading this hysteria. Chill, take a pill, have a drag and relax a bit.
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Joe...too much TV watching. I suggest switching to Gilgans Island and you'll see life from not such a pessimistic view.
I could say the thing for some of you.
FYI, out in the park and it is crowded with all ages; I’m a bit surprised going by what I read on here. Walked past at least 200 people in an hour.
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The lunatics are not all in the asylums.
Bang on Rob.
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I could say the thing for some of you.
FYI, out in the park and it is crowded with all ages; I’m a bit surprised going by what I read on here. Walked past at least 200 people in an hour.
As long as one keeps their distance, there is no problem.
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Would it be cheaper to build quarantine camps for old people than to shut down the whole economy?
(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/99/e4/d8/99e4d8c5ff7a495bb38c412ee001d38e.jpg)
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Would it be cheaper to build quarantine camps for old people than to shut down the whole economy?
(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/99/e4/d8/99e4d8c5ff7a495bb38c412ee001d38e.jpg)
It's not just old people.
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Photokina 2020 is cancelled. Next scheduled for 2022. The photo industry may well conclude press releases work as well as expensive trade shows.
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Isn't this isolation plan to prevent deaths from skyrocketing? It's a success not a failure...talk about backwards thinking.
That logic is like buying life insurance today and being pissed off tomorrow because you didn't use it.
You missed the point. Joes said if death dont spike he's chucking the rules. What Im saying is if they dont spike lets still keep up following the rules.
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As long as one keeps their distance, there is no problem.
Its not just distance but also surfaces....
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Its not just distance but also surfaces....
Right...that's where to washing hands and not touching your face comes in.
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Right...that's where to washing hands and not touching your face comes in.
Yep, if you do it...
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Many in the UK lost faith in politicians long, long ago. Hope here in the UK lies with the likes of Professor Christopher Whitty, the government's chief medical adviser and with Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser. The weight on their shoulders is palpable, but coming from their position of strength and knowledge they appear to bear it exceedingly well.
Let's hope they are our Churchill in this time of crisis.
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On my 2 hour walk today, hiking along a trail no wider then two cars, I walked past at least 300 different people of all ages, many in groups.
I have come to a few conclusions. People wont listen to this. On this forum, amongst those who lean more towards typing instead of talking, what you guys think can happen may be a consensus. But in reality, real people are not going to follow these rules without serious in your face consequences. Especially with spring around the corner and winter coming to an end, people will not stay cooped up inside, at least not in northern locations. People are ready for nice weather.
Be chicken little if you want, they are not going to pay attention unless things become like Italy.
I have already talked to some clients, and they are not planning on working from home much longer then what I listed earlier.
In a week and half, two weeks max, I foresee those couple shoots I postponed being shot and others being scheduled under the current situation. Next week could change this if the death stats rise, but if not ...
The idea we can lock down for a few months without completely changing the psyche of the country, without great issues, is not something I think is possible, nor would I ever want to see our psyche change to allow for that. It would fundamentally change what it means to be American; our mentality would become as being subservient to the state.
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Angela Merkel sees the corona crisis as the greatest challenge since World War II. She uses dramatic words to address the nation in a television speech - and appeals to the sense of responsibility of the people in the country:
At the moment, only distance is an expression of care.
The Chancellor warned that hospitals would be overwhelmed if many Corona patients were admitted in a very short time. "These are not simply abstract figures in statistics, but that is a father or grandfather, a mother or grandmother, a partner, they are people."
The "most urgent" thing for her this evening was the message that all government measures would be ineffective, "if we did not use the most effective means to prevent the virus from spreading too quickly: and we are ourselves," said the Chancellor. "Everyone counts, it takes our effort."
Merkel appealed to the citizens' sense of responsibility to follow the agreed rules. "It depends on everyone. We are not condemned to passively accept the spread of the virus. We have a remedy for this: we have to keep a distance from each other out of respect." At the moment it is "only an expression of care". You have to limit the risk "that one infects the other as much as we can".
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/angela-merkel-sieht-corona-krise-als-groesste-herausforderung-seit-dem-zweiten-weltkrieg-a-bd56dc3f-2436-4a03-b2cf-5e44e06ffb49
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As I said:
In pictures: Hoboken, NJ, issues self-isolation order but few listen (https://www.foxnews.com/us/pictures-hoboken-nj-issues-self-isolation-order-for-residents)
Not that I condone this; I do honestly feel that this point a two week lockdown is a good idea. But being a realist, I am not surprised by this either. Those in power should come up with a better idea soon.
But anyway, I will continue to be inside for a little more, mostly. Yesterday was a Gouda day. If I can get six gallons of milk tomorrow, it might be a Gruyere day with some ricotta left overs.
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On my 2 hour walk today, hiking along a trail no wider then two cars, I walked past at least 300 different people of all ages, many in groups.
I have come to a few conclusions. People wont listen to this. On this forum, amongst those who lean more towards typing instead of talking, what you guys think can happen may be a consensus. But in reality, real people are not going to follow these rules without serious in your face consequences. Especially with spring around the corner and winter coming to an end, people will not stay cooped up inside, at least not in northern locations. People are ready for nice weather.
Be chicken little if you want, they are not going to pay attention unless things become like Italy.
I have already talked to some clients, and they are not planning on working from home much longer then what I listed earlier.
In a week and half, two weeks max, I foresee those couple shoots I postponed being shot and others being scheduled under the current situation. Next week could change this if the death stats rise, but if not ...
The idea we can lock down for a few months without completely changing the psyche of the country, without great issues, is not something I think is possible, nor would I ever want to see our psyche change to allow for that. It would fundamentally change what it means to be American; our mentality would become as being subservient to the state.
Why do you feel this lock down is the man sticking it to you? Are Americans so inward looking that they can not understand these measures might not be saving their life...but maybe their neighbors. Have you been burned so badly that you don't trust anyone...not even experts in this field? Do you feel this is some kind of sick experiment on the human psyche.
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Why do you feel this lock down is the man sticking it to you? Are Americans so inward looking that they can not understand these measures might not be saving their life...but maybe their neighbors. Have you been burned so badly that you don't trust anyone...not even experts in this field? Do you feel this is some kind of sick experiment on the human psyche.
Not being an American, you just simply cant understand. It's like trying to explain to fish how to fly. We have a canker in our hearts for governance, going all the way back to George the III.
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Not being an American, you just simply cant understand. It's like trying to explain to fish how to fly. We have a canker in our hearts for governance going all the way back to George the III.
Well I feel sorry for you...looking over your shoulder to ensure the man ain't about to stab you in the back.
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Good decision making requires data. Because of the testing snafu here in the US and weird data from all over, nobody can make a decent decision about whether there is a serious pandemic on hand or this is just a bit worse than past virulent flu epidemics. I look at the WHO data each day. Germany has been putting up the lowest mortality numbers as of today; o.2% which is about where the 1918 flu was. It could be this number is too high as it's easier to count dead bodies than it is to count the number of those infected. This is in stark contrast to Italy where the rate is about 9%. Which one is correct? Both countries have universal health coverage and while you might be skeptical of China's numbers, these may be decent enough. The Nordic countries are a shade higher than Germany. Even with those low numbers Germany adopted strong measures to halt spread of the virus.
I will say it one final time, anything one reads or hears at this point is just conjecture. Things may be like Italy or they may be like Germany; we don't know. the only thing that is certain is that people are dying from COVID-19 infections and at this point in time that rate is higher than the seasonal flu.
The rate may be higher than the seasonal flu. But that's based on detected cases. Is the rate higher in absolute numbers of how many are dying per week or per month? If 10,000 died in one to two months compared to 500,000 for the regular flu for the entire season last year, the coronavirus rate seems a lot lower in absolute numbers. I'm not being nonchalant about this being in the worse group. But the facts and statistics don't equate to something more serious than the seasonal flu. Maybe my statistics and thinking are wrong. Maybe someone could correct me. But something doesn't jive.
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Good move. I went out twice today, once to take some photos. It's not often you can do urban photography without a million cars or pedestrians ruining the shot. I'm a sucker for DWC movies (Decline of Western Civilization, post apocalypse, Mad Max Road Warrior), so empty streets and highways are very appealing. We actually still have too much action here, I'll try again early Sunday morning.
Perfect time for drive-in movies. That would be neat. Of course, while you sit in the front your girlfriend would have to sit in the back.
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Just saw a report that the Chinese are testing a vaccine candidate and are set to ramp up bulk production.
A horrible movie. China planned this the whole time. They started it to destroy western civilization and take over as the first economy and military of the world while having the antidote already designed to stop it in their country and then sell it to the rest of the bankrupt world. Truth may be stranger than fiction.
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The rate may be higher than the seasonal flu. But that's based on detected cases. Is the rate higher in absolute numbers of how many are dying per week or per month? If 10,000 died in one to two months compared to 500,000 for the regular flu for the entire season last year, the coronavirus rate seems a lot lower in absolute numbers. I'm not being nonchalant about this being in the worse group. But the facts and statistics don't equate to something more serious than the seasonal flu. Maybe my statistics and thinking are wrong. Maybe someone could correct me. But something doesn't jive.
It is true that not all C19 cases are reported, and also all such deaths are not correctly identified. But these are the best stats we can get right now.
BTW, a few days ago, I estimated that by weekend the global infections and deaths will reach 250,000, resp, 10,000. However, both the infection and death curves are rapidly steepening. Today, almost 1,000 fatalities were reported. We may reach the aforementioned numbers by early Friday.
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A horrible movie. China planned this the whole time. They started it to destroy western civilization and take over as the first economy and military of the world while having the antidote already designed to stop it in their country and then sell it to the rest of the bankrupt world. Truth may be stranger than fiction.
???
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We have a rapidly growing epidemic in South Africa. Schools closed and all sport suspended. No public gatherings of over 100 people, 50 where alcohol is served. Streets are very quiet and roads a pleasure to drive on.
I had a shoot on Tuesday. Last pice of a coffee table book for a corporate client. I went and did the shoot and also photographed hand sanitizer since that is one of their products that is selling really well. I have another shoot today. Just a half day. I am going to do it. Next week another shoot for an industrial lighting company. Tuesday to Thursday a shoot for a retreat centre and hour out of the city. Quiet place with just 5 people during the week. I will do that shoot as well.
Not going out needlessly but did go to a restaurant on Monday. No shaking hands or hugging. Didn’t go for my usual beard trim at the local barber. I’m being careful I think but life goes on. Don’t want to spread it but not particularly concerned for myself. I am 59 and have survived worse stuff than this. Eventually something will get me and that thing is logically getting closer and closer. Hope it’s not this stupid ass virus but it could be. All the deaths are awful but I’m enjoying the quiet.
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On my 2 hour walk today, hiking along a trail no wider then two cars, I walked past at least 300 different people of all ages, many in groups.
I have come to a few conclusions. People wont listen to this. On this forum, amongst those who lean more towards typing instead of talking, what you guys think can happen may be a consensus. But in reality, real people are not going to follow these rules without serious in your face consequences. Especially with spring around the corner and winter coming to an end, people will not stay cooped up inside, at least not in northern locations. People are ready for nice weather.
Be chicken little if you want, they are not going to pay attention unless things become like Italy.
I have already talked to some clients, and they are not planning on working from home much longer then what I listed earlier.
In a week and half, two weeks max, I foresee those couple shoots I postponed being shot and others being scheduled under the current situation. Next week could change this if the death stats rise, but if not ...
The idea we can lock down for a few months without completely changing the psyche of the country, without great issues, is not something I think is possible, nor would I ever want to see our psyche change to allow for that. It would fundamentally change what it means to be American; our mentality would become as being subservient to the state.
Hey, cowboy, I give thanks for the Atlantic Ocean.
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On my 2 hour walk today, hiking along a trail no wider then two cars, I walked past at least 300 different people of all ages, many in groups.
I have come to a few conclusions. People wont listen to this. On this forum, amongst those who lean more towards typing instead of talking, what you guys think can happen may be a consensus. But in reality, real people are not going to follow these rules without serious in your face consequences. Especially with spring around the corner and winter coming to an end, people will not stay cooped up inside, at least not in northern locations. People are ready for nice weather.
Be chicken little if you want, they are not going to pay attention unless things become like Italy.
I have already talked to some clients, and they are not planning on working from home much longer then what I listed earlier.
In a week and half, two weeks max, I foresee those couple shoots I postponed being shot and others being scheduled under the current situation. Next week could change this if the death stats rise, but if not ...
The idea we can lock down for a few months without completely changing the psyche of the country, without great issues, is not something I think is possible, nor would I ever want to see our psyche change to allow for that. It would fundamentally change what it means to be American; our mentality would become as being subservient to the state.
A few comments:
1. Lockdown and social quarentine is the onlyway to arrest the spread of the infection. South Korea a few weeks ago was the worst case after China. They enforced quarentine and arrested the contagion - 80 something dead.
2. There are reliable mathematical models to forecast the numbers. The epidemics follows a sigmoid curve, with an initially long tail - which makes people think itis not serious - an exponential growth phase, a peak and plateau, and then a descent. The number of cases doubles avery 2 or 3 days. Portugal started with 2 on March 2, yesterday we had 600+.
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The rate may be higher than the seasonal flu. But that's based on detected cases. Is the rate higher in absolute numbers of how many are dying per week or per month? If 10,000 died in one to two months compared to 500,000 for the regular flu for the entire season last year, the coronavirus rate seems a lot lower in absolute numbers. I'm not being nonchalant about this being in the worse group. But the facts and statistics don't equate to something more serious than the seasonal flu. Maybe my statistics and thinking are wrong. Maybe someone could correct me. But something doesn't jive.
The issue is the stress imposed on already delapidated and non-prepared health care systems. One thing is treating patients with seasonal flus, hospitals are prepared to receive say a few patients a day with pneumonia. The problem with covid19 is that the infection rate is much higher - all of a sudden the hospital is flooded with say 50 or 100 people with serious pneunomia. Germany seems tohave enough repsirators to treat people.
Not the case with Italy, where doctors are admiting only patients with 60+ years. Infected cases double every 2 days in the exponential growth phase. Here in Portugal we already know that the peak of the curve will be in 2 - 3 weeks - yesterday we had 600+ infected, tomorrow it will be 1,200, and so forth. In 2 weeks we will have 30,000 - of those, 5% will need ventilation in hospitals and ICU treatment.
Numbers do not lie, and everybody should learn from what happened already in other countries.
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The issue is the stress imposed on already delapidated and non-prepared health care systems. One thing is treating patients with seasonal flus, hospitals are prepared to receive say a few patients a day with pneumonia. The problem with covid19 is that the infection rate is much higher - all of a sudden the hospital is flooded with say 50 or 100 people with serious pneunomia. Germany seems tohave enough repsirators to treat people.
Not the case with Italy, where doctors are admiting only patients with 60+ years. Infected cases double every 2 days in the exponential growth phase. Here in Portugal we already know that the peak of the curve will be in 2 - 3 weeks - yesterday we had 600+ infected, tomorrow it will be 1,200, and so forth. In 2 weeks we will have 30,000 - of those, 5% will need ventilation in hospitals and ICU treatment.
Numbers do not lie, and everybody should learn from what happened already in other countries.
This is frightening, but very likely.
I just listened to a short excerpt from the Sandra Maischberger TV show in Germany, where the scientist Karl Lauterbach explains that in Germany with the current official infection count of 12,300 it is expected that by the weekend they will have 20,000 cases and in a few weeks the total count will be in a 6-digit range.
https://www.spiegel.de/kultur/tv/sandra-maischberger-zum-coronavirus-a-8c0df505-ae8e-41c9-9aec-2518ec470107
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Went for a 10 mile hike yesterday, in Essex UK. As usual on, my tracks, saw almost no one. Saw 4 other hikers on a parallel track. Even stopped at a pub lunchtime. Only 3 people in the bar I used; due to bar's size we were well spread. Used my phone to pay; reducing contact.
Intend to carry on with these hikes; just reduce pub visits. My wife will join me for the shorter hikes.
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Reported in Swiss Neue Zuercher Zeitung:
Psychiatrist Julius Kurmann about the Corona emergency situation: "It is the uncertainty that makes us people despair".
A deadly virus, closed shops, empty streets: the threat is visible everywhere. What does it do to people?
There are two reactions: some deal with it constructively. They take the situation as it is, saying that it is actually good that everything is once again less hectic and less loud. Others react fearfully. On the one hand, this is understandable. After all, we don't know what to expect. However, some people also have exaggerated, panicky fear. They have the feeling that the only downward trend now is that we are all dying.
How does this fatalism come about?
Anyone who constantly deals with the subject of corona virus gets into a kind of trance. It's a life like in a disaster movie. When we turn on the television, we are constantly confronted with epidemiologists and virologists who tell us that the worst-case scenario is imminent. Those who do not distinguish themselves here will find themselves in a pull.
Is there a fear of an increase in domestic violence due to the current circumstances?
I am not a prophet, but this could be one of many effects. The restriction of the freedom we are experiencing harbors dangers. That worries me a little. The worst case scenario would be if this exceptional situation were extended again and again. Now everything is still fresh, we are just getting used to these new conditions. But at some point you want the whole thing to end. And if this end is not in sight, it can become problematic. It is the uncertain that makes us humans despair.
It is sometimes heard that risk groups, especially older people, underestimated the situation. What is your impression?
I sometimes have that feeling too. Still, I believe that most are slowly but surely aware of the serious situation. However, I find it human that such a change cannot happen overnight. We are not machines that can simply flip a switch. You have to be patient here. People will gradually adapt more and more.
Full interview:
https://www.nzz.ch/zuerich/coronavirus-in-zuerich-ein-leben-wie-in-einem-katastrophenfilm-ld.1547124
You can use translate.google.com to translate the article to English or other language. The translator software is very good, I am quite impressed how much this tool improved over the years.
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A few comments:
1. Lockdown and social quarentine is the onlyway to arrest the spread of the infection. South Korea a few weeks ago was the worst case after China. They enforced quarentine and arrested the contagion - 80 something dead.
2. There are reliable mathematical models to forecast the numbers. The epidemics follows a sigmoid curve, with an initially long tail - which makes people think itis not serious - an exponential growth phase, a peak and plateau, and then a descent. The number of cases doubles avery 2 or 3 days. Portugal started with 2 on March 2, yesterday we had 600+.
Paulo, I am just being a realist here with whether or not Americans will actually follow these.
Hoboken, one of the most left leaning cities in the country where you would think the residents would have a propensity to follow their elected leaders, went out in droves yesterday and thumbed their nose at city hall's lockdown.
I was talking to my aunt who is 84 last night, and, without even bringing it up, she mentioned people wont live like this.
We may have to start thinking about setting up isolation camps for elderly people and others at risk while this is blowing over. Or at the very least, provide them with additional services so they can remain in doors.
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Hey, cowboy, I give thanks for the Atlantic Ocean.
Added to which, the Mediterranean!
I wonder if US television has given some of its local viewers a hero/idiot complex? Perhaps because it's in their own language they actually believe it, as some do their current head honcho?
Strange.
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On my 2 hour walk today, hiking along a trail no wider then two cars, I walked past at least 300 different people of all ages, many in groups.
I have come to a few conclusions. People wont listen to this. On this forum, amongst those who lean more towards typing instead of talking, what you guys think can happen may be a consensus. But in reality, real people are not going to follow these rules without serious in your face consequences. Especially with spring around the corner and winter coming to an end, people will not stay cooped up inside, at least not in northern locations. People are ready for nice weather.
Be chicken little if you want, they are not going to pay attention unless things become like Italy.
I have already talked to some clients, and they are not planning on working from home much longer then what I listed earlier.
In a week and half, two weeks max, I foresee those couple shoots I postponed being shot and others being scheduled under the current situation. Next week could change this if the death stats rise, but if not ...
The idea we can lock down for a few months without completely changing the psyche of the country, without great issues, is not something I think is possible, nor would I ever want to see our psyche change to allow for that. It would fundamentally change what it means to be American; our mentality would become as being subservient to the state.
I've not been on the forum for a few days - but as this thread was so long I skipped to the last page, and the quoted post above was the first I read. Are the majority of US citizens like this - or have I just come on here a week too early and the reality has not sunk in yet....?
I'm a professional photographer and been working as such for 22 years. I don't do many wedding these days and those I have booked for the next few months have all been postponed till next year. Most of my photography is in schools, and they are all now shutting down - probably until September. Once I get my recent invoices in and hopefully paid, I'm unlikely to earn anything at all for six months.
Most of us will contract the Coronavirus at some point in the coming months or may be a bit more. The plan here in the UK is to try and spread that over as many months as possible rather than taking the hit in the next three months as would happen if left unchecked. The difference it is suggested would be in the former case, keeping the fatalities down to the tens of thousands (though I think it is likely to be higher than that) or in the latter case possibly 500,000 deaths within six months. Seasonal flu in the UK kills around 8000.
As others have pointed out - it's not necessarily about you - it's about your neighbours. As in all times of social disruption, war, natural disaster, or this pandemic - we will really see the true nature of people whether they are family, friends or politicians. It is a time to rise up to the challenge, not to selfishly think of oneself. If society seriously breaks down, money will be worthless - fellow man invaluable.
Jim
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And one more thing - as I said, I've not had time to read through this whole thread so I'm not sure if this has been mentioned yet - but the US president. I know we in the UK have Boris, the slightly dishevelled bumbling man. But Trump...... I saw him on TV yesterday and I could hardly believe what I was hearing. He talks like a man with some sort of mental defect. I'm sure there are very clever people who know what they are doing around him - but this is a time for a President who can be trusted and provide true leadership surely.
By the way, in a couple of weeks I will have plenty of time on my hands to keep more up to date with the Lula forum.....
Jim
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This is a link to a very technical paper regarding the impact and effectiveness of non-pharma interventions https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf). It's long and involved but here is the summary/abstract:
Summary
The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in recent weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number of public health measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – aimed at reducing contact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented here, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britain specifically) and the US. We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission.
Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.
We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should be recognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased absenteeism. The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound. Last, while experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible in the short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social and economic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced.
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Not being an American, you just simply cant understand. It's like trying to explain to fish how to fly. We have a canker in our hearts for governance, going all the way back to George the III.
No, it's not like explaining to fish how to fly, though some learned how to glide a long, long time ago.
One does not have to be an American, a Brit or an anything else to understand that some things are greater than self. Failure to understand that implies some sort of mental underdevelopment or basic fault in the wiring.
Americans blaming some long-dead British king is as daft as the Irish blaming some other long-dead group of idiots for the problems that they, they Irish, perpetuate in the north of their godforsaken island; that past is history, and today is a different word; don't be living relics.
For your sake, the sake of your family, try to wake up to the grim reality that has descended upon mankind. Alternatively, just carry on as usual and destroy the lot of us. Is your own life really so bad you secretly want to do that?
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I've not been on the forum for a few days - but as this thread was so long I skipped to the last page, and the quoted post above was the first I read. Are the majority of US citizens like this - or have I just come on here a week too early and the reality has not sunk in yet....?
I'm a professional photographer and been working as such for 22 years. I don't do many wedding these days and those I have booked for the next few months have all been postponed till next year. Most of my photography is in schools, and they are all now shutting down - probably until September. Once I get my recent invoices in and hopefully paid, I'm unlikely to earn anything at all for six months.
Most of us will contract the Coronavirus at some point in the coming months or may be a bit more. The plan here in the UK is to try and spread that over as many months as possible rather than taking the hit in the next three months as would happen if left unchecked. The difference it is suggested would be in the former case, keeping the fatalities down to the tens of thousands (though I think it is likely to be higher than that) or in the latter case possibly 500,000 deaths within six months. Seasonal flu in the UK kills around 8000.
As others have pointed out - it's not necessarily about you - it's about your neighbours. As in all times of social disruption, war, natural disaster, or this pandemic - we will really see the true nature of people whether they are family, friends or politicians. It is a time to rise up to the challenge, not to selfishly think of oneself. If society seriously breaks down, money will be worthless - fellow man invaluable.
Jim
Nearly everyone on this forum is missing what I am saying.
Although you can bet on this type of thing happening in other countries, I just cant see this being the case in the USA. You are wearing rose colored glasses if you are betting on this alone without any backup plans here.
Personal attacks against myself is not going to change the attitude of Americans. You cant goad the entire country into feeling guilty. You work with the people you have and craft plans that you know will work with those people, and I think it is not a stretch to say Americans are unlike anyone else, especially those in Europe.
We need other plans than relying on self-isolation before it is too late. Hoboken proved this yesterday.
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No, it's not like explaining to fish how to fly, though some learned how to glide a long, long time ago.
One does not have to be an American, a Brit or an anything else to understand that some things are greater than self. Failure to understand that implies some sort of mental underdevelopment or basic fault in the wiring.
Americans blaming some long-dead British king is as daft as the Irish blaming some other long-dead group of idiots for the problems that they, they Irish, perpetuate in the north of their godforsaken island; that past is history, and today is a different word; don't be living relics.
For your sake, the sake of your family, try to wake up to the grim reality that has descended upon mankind. Alternatively, just carry on as usual and destroy the lot of us. Is your own life really so bad you secretly want to do that?
Thanks for proving my point.
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Nearly everyone on this forum is missing what I am saying.
Although you can bet on this type of thing happening in other countries, I just cant see this being the case in the USA. You are wearing rose colored glasses if you are betting on this alone without any backup plans here.
Personal attacks against myself is not going to change the attitude of Americans. You cant goad the entire country into feeling guilty. You work with the people you have and craft plans that you know will work with those people, and I think it is not a stretch to say Americans are unlike anyone else, especially those in Europe.
We need other plans than relying on self-isolation before it is too late. Hoboken proved this yesterday.
No one is attacking you, some are just disagreeing with you.
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Nearly everyone on this forum is missing what I am saying.
Although you can bet on this type of thing happening in other countries, I just cant see this being the case in the USA. You are wearing rose colored glasses if you are betting on this alone without any backup plans here.
Personal attacks against myself is not going to change the attitude of Americans. You cant goad the entire country into feeling guilty. You work with the people you have and craft plans that you know will work with those people, and I think it is not a stretch to say Americans are unlike anyone else, especially those in Europe.
We need other plans than relying on self-isolation before it is too late. Hoboken proved this yesterday.
What I do I get is that you're speaking on behalf of the American people: I don't get that as being particularly wise or indeed accurate.
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What I do I get is that you're speaking on behalf of the American people: I don't get that as being particularly wise or indeed accurate.
See the link I posted on Hoboken. People won’t care until it is too late. Other plans better be in place. B
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See the link I posted on Hoboken. People won’t care until it is too late. Other plans better be in place. B
I just read a piece about the mandatory lockdown in San Francisco. Despite your predictions they are obeying the order quite faithfully.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/everything-out-our-control-san-francisco-eases-lockdown-n1163376
I simply don’t believe most American will behave like you suggest. I would be very disappointed with our society and country if that were the case. This is not going to be easy, in fact it will be quite painful and it’s going to test every person around the globe. There has always been good and bad in mankind. I for one hope that good prevails.
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Italy's fleet of the dead: Military trucks transport scores of coronavirus victims' coffins to be cremated
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8129959/Military-trucks-transport-Italian-coronavirus-victims-coffins-cremated.html
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Nearly everyone on this forum is missing what I am saying.
Although you can bet on this type of thing happening in other countries, I just cant see this being the case in the USA. You are wearing rose colored glasses if you are betting on this alone without any backup plans here.
Personal attacks against myself is not going to change the attitude of Americans. You cant goad the entire country into feeling guilty. You work with the people you have and craft plans that you know will work with those people, and I think it is not a stretch to say Americans are unlike anyone else, especially those in Europe.
We need other plans than relying on self-isolation before it is too late. Hoboken proved this yesterday.
Joe it was not meant as any sort of personal attack.. I am just bemused at the attitude. This is not about the 'State' versus anyone - it is about listening to the best brains in science, allowing the politicians to interpret that advice, and citizens doing their best to mitigate the potential disaster. You talk about going out anyway in a couple of weeks to do a portrait shoot as if it's an important thing to do. It's not that important. If you work in healthcare, or need to go out to shop for a vulnerable neighbour, that's important.
There is no guilt involved - it's up to each member of the human race to do the right thing (according to the best advice). Don't worry what other Americans will do - do the right thing yourself.
I don't know what age or health you are in - but possibly like me you are below retirement age and reasonably fit. Purely from a selfish point of view, although we may not be directly at risk ourselves, in a month's time if the hospitals are overflowing with frail people on life-support, guess what will happen if you or one of your children suffers a sudden acute health problem - road traffic accident, heart attack etc - do you think there will be any capacity to treat you? Possibly not..... Thousands of younger people will die because the healthcare system is saturated.
That is why social distancing and isolation are a possibly way of mitigating the worst outcome.
Jim
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God To Ignore Quarantine And Continue Being Everywhere. (Babylon Bee satire...kind of)
https://babylonbee.com/news/god-breaking-quarantine-and-going-everywhere
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Jim, you can hammer that point home all you want. Trust me when I say there are many Americans that could case less about what the best and brightest minds think, and this will only increase if the death rate remains low. I'm am taking that into account with how I think people will handle this thing. Warmer weather without a large amount of deaths will bring people out.
But anyway, here is some dire news from JP Morgan.
Coronavirus will hit US economy harder than 2008 financial crisis: J.P. Morgan (https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/coronavirus-us-economy-depression-like-contraction-before-growth-j-p-morgan)
"The firm sees the U.S. economy shrinking by 5.3 percent from January through March and 14 percent during the following three months. By comparison, the U.S. economy contracted by 7.2 percent during the fourth quarter of 2008, its worst of the global financial crisis, according to the St. Louis Fed.
Still, a sharp snap back to 6 percent growth in the third quarter of this year and 2.3 percent in the fourth leaves the long-term outlook less dire than both the worst year of the financial crisis and the earliest years for which data is available on the Great Depression."
Anyway, at this point, I'm just happy the perennials I ordered in January were still shipped this week and will arrive in time for planting season. Judging by the grocery, having a means to produce your own food is a positive right now.
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Coronavirus Ravages 7 Members of a Single Family, Killing 3
The matriarch of the large New Jersey family died Wednesday night without ever knowing that her two oldest children had died before her.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/nyregion/new-jersey-family-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
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Just finished listening to a podcast on the virus subject, and it ended with these words:
"The wise men will lay at home, and the fools will lay dead."
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In a nearby town about 5 miles from me. It's getting too close.
Coronavirus Ravages 7 Members of a Single Family, Killing 3
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/nyregion/new-jersey-family-coronavirus.html
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In a nearby town about 5 miles from me. It's getting too close.
Coronavirus Ravages 7 Members of a Single Family, Killing 3
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/nyregion/new-jersey-family-coronavirus.html
Alan, do you ever read the other posts? Like the one two entries above yours.
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I just read a piece about the mandatory lockdown in San Francisco. Despite your predictions they are obeying the order quite faithfully.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/everything-out-our-control-san-francisco-eases-lockdown-n1163376
I simply don’t believe most American will behave like you suggest. I would be very disappointed with our society and country if that were the case. This is not going to be easy, in fact it will be quite painful and it’s going to test every person around the globe. There has always been good and bad in mankind. I for one hope that good prevails.
Societies are judged on how they deal with a crisis. Italians were shown housed up singing from their balconies. Time will tell how Americans will be judged.
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As I have noted before, I also commonly post to an Habanos Forum that has many more active posters then the small amount here. The range of professions, ages and status is also significantly larger too. Many people here work by themselves, or in very small groups. This is not the case on that forum.
This is a topic of conversation there, albeit much more civil. (The owner of the forum strictly prohibits any talk of USA politics with a two month ban if you break the rule, which I pretty much attribute to the greater level of civility. Oddly enough, politics of any other country is allowed, showing exactly how different, or crazy, we are in the USA.)
Although many here feel these measures will be followed, many there do not. Many are posting about their co-workers continually making comments about how this is a big hoax, and choosing to come to work sick. Now, if someone makes a big fuss, that person is sent home, but this does not negate the fact that they still have the mentality that it is not as serious as it is.
Now this is not only due to very independent peopler, but also from many who just dont follow the news or care to. Nearly everyone out there are not like those on this forum, spending much of their day staying up to date.
This is why I feel this way. By the time most take this seriously, it will be too late, just like in Italy. I'd recommended those who are most vulnerable to make plans accordingly.
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Alan, do you ever read the other posts? Like the one two entries above yours.
I didn't see his post until after I posted mine. If I'm catching up on posts, and there are lot in this thread, I might post before I've read through all of them. This family's tragedy was on my mind being so close to where I live. So I posted it before reading everyone's posts. So there could be duplicate. Should I go stand in the corner? :)
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Societies are judged on how they deal with a crisis. Italians were shown housed up singing from their balconies. Time will tell how Americans will be judged.
We don't need any backhanded slaps. America doesn't owe anyone any apologies. I see a country that is shutting down and preparing for war. Don't sell America short. People in the past have done that to their peril. Sure there are going to be laggards; we're a big country. But people are getting the picture.
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We don't need any backhanded slaps. America doesn't owe anyone any apologies. I see a country that is shutting down and preparing for war. Don't sell America short. People in the past have done that to their peril. Sure there are going to be laggards; we're a big country. But people are getting the picture.
Well I'm hearing we'll only take this for two weeks then all hell will break open. So which is it...people getting the picture or are we taking the guns to the streets?
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Well I'm hearing we'll only take this for two weeks then all hell will break open. So which is it...people getting the picture or are we taking the guns to the streets?
You're just taking a cheap shot at America. A lot of people here like to do that. It makes them feel superior and hide their own inadequacies.
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Well I'm hearing we'll only take this for two weeks then all hell will break open. So which is it...people getting the picture or are we taking the guns to the streets?
There are lines out the door and down the block at all guns shops in Philly right now, so ...
And I'm being serious here. Gun shops are selling out of guns.
But anyway, Italy did not start to take this seriously until large numbers of people were getting it. They are only acting that way now because they are being forced to be reactive to it, instead of being proactive.
2nd, the USA is not Italy. Italy has a far greater amount of interaction between age groups, plus it is more common to hug and kiss hello and goodbye. These two alone will cause a much greater effect.
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There are lines out the door and down the block at all guns shops in Philly right now, so ...
And I'm being serious here. Gun shops are selling out of guns.
Joe, you are going to have to explain this one to me: Pandemic = "Buy Guns"...WTF???
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There are lines out the door and down the block at all guns shops in Philly right now, so ...
And I'm being serious here. Gun shops are selling out of guns.
But anyway, Italy did not start to take this seriously until large numbers of people were getting it. They are only acting that way now because they are being forced to be reactive to it, instead of being proactive.
2nd, the USA is not Italy. Italy has a far greater amount of interaction between age groups, plus it is more common to hug and kiss hello and goodbye. These two alone will cause a much greater effect.
Time will tell. We are in the infancy stage right now in North America.
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Joe, you are going to have to explain this one to me: Pandemic = "Buy Guns"...WTF???
Solution to all issues!
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Joe, you are going to have to explain this one to me: Pandemic = "Buy Guns"...WTF???
I'm not buying any guns right now, so it's a mystery to me.
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You're just taking a cheap shot at America. A lot of people here like to do that. It makes them feel superior and hide their own inadequacies.
Alan, no-one did it better than H.L. Mencken (an American). It seems that the man was a prophet too....
"As democracy is perfected, the office of President represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day, the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."
:)
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Another one...
"The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars;
the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth." - H.L. Mencken
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Another one...
"The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars;
the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth." - H.L. Mencken
The lier sounds like Obama. "If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor. If you like your plan, you can keep your plan."
And the current most detested person is Trump. Perhaps he is telling the truth?
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The lier sounds like Obama. "If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor. If you like your plan, you can keep your plan."
And the current most detested person is Trump. Perhaps he is telling the truth?
Ah...it's great to have a laugh at times like this.
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Just came back from my last, so far, pre-cooked restaurant meal; local pub/restaurant chain.
I was probably safer there than at home. Only three tables occupied so further apart than I am to my neighbour; admittedly separated by a party wall.
But feel sorry for staff. They are not going to be employed for much longer; leaving heathly tip did not alleviate my guilt.
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The lier sounds like Obama. "If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor. If you like your plan, you can keep your plan."
And the current most detested person is Trump. Perhaps he is telling the truth?
You must have missed the first quote.... ;)
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Thousands of people with summer homes have come here to ride out the virus. This is probably the worst place in the country to be. We have less than 20 beds in our hospital, 2 ventilators and no intensive care unit. If it gets bad, we will be stuck here with no medical care. Add to that, it requires extra effort to get food and fuel here. The town says it can’t stop people from coming so we are looking at a grim scenario playing out here.
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Thousands of people with summer homes have come here to ride out the virus. This is probably the worst place in the country to be. We have less than 20 beds in our hospital, 2 ventilators and no intensive care unit. If it gets bad, we will be stuck here with no medical care. Add to that, it requires extra effort to get food and fuel here. The town says it can’t stop people from coming so we are looking at a grim scenario playing out here.
Same is happening here in the UK, people escaping to their 2nd homes in areas with limited health resources.
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You must have missed the first quote.... ;)
I did not. I just thought it was obvious.
I mean after all Trump started responding after just 61 dying of this. Obama ignored the Swine Flu until over a 1000 died.
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Joe, you are going to have to explain this one to me: Pandemic = "Buy Guns"...WTF???
I'll explain it. When anything remotely threatening happens, people buy guns. We have a thing in the U.S., promoted widely by gun companies, gun magazines and gun nuts, called the SHTF situation (Shit Hits The Fan.) This is usually a situation where all power plants fail at the same time, and every single government drops out of sight, beautiful Fox News newsreaders are eaten, and black people, who are 12% of the population, and high on all manner of drugs, come boiling out of the ghettos armed with machetes and overwhelm the 88% of the rest of us, paying special attention to beautiful blond women, which requires us to have guns. This is especially true in states that have no black people, because, you know, black people are like that. Even though, when you go to a gun show, most of the people there are either (a) old or (b) fat, or more likely (c) both, on the magazines they are portrayed as being tall, big-shouldered, wearing yellow blade sunglasses and head-to-toe camo, and armed with a black rifle and a high capacity handgun with which they'll be shooting those rabbits (and any black people they find up in the mountains.) My point being, if you can't get a C-19 vaccine, buy a gun.
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I'll explain it. When anything remotely threatening happens, people buy guns. We have a thing in the U.S., promoted widely by gun companies, gun magazines and gun nuts, called the SHTF situation (Shit Hits The Fan.) This is usually a situation where all power plants fail at the same time, and every single government drops out of sight, beautiful Fox News newsreaders are eaten, and black people, who are 12% of the population, and high on all manner of drugs, come boiling out of the ghettos armed with machetes and overwhelm the 88% of the rest of us, paying special attention to beautiful blond women, which requires us to have guns. This is especially true in states that have no black people, because, you know, black people are like that. Even though, when you go to a gun show, most of the people there are either (a) old or (b) fat, or more likely (c) both, on the magazines they are portrayed as being tall, big-shouldered, wearing yellow blade sunglasses and head-to-toe camo, and armed with a black rifle and a high capacity handgun with which they'll be shooting those rabbits (and any black people they find up in the mountains.) My point being, if you can't get a C-19 vaccine, buy a gun.
Why are you concentrating so much on black people? Do you have issues with black people? You should really stop projecting any of your issues unfairly on others.
But anyway, taking out the obvious hyperbole of James' issues with black people, this describes the mentality of preppers first hand. Those people are nuts, but not exclusive to the USA.
I stumbled upon a Youtube channel called Canadian Prepper once, purely by happenstance, and if you want to see how far out these people are, visit this page.
He did have an interesting thought experiment on who would be mostly to survive a SHTF situation though, which he feels would be in shape women in their mid-30s without any children followed closely by men of the same standing.
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Here's a thought (from a moderately liberal Democrat old guy) --
I think some of the lefty Democrats are going to shoot themselves in the foot politically. Some are insisting if there are industry bailouts, that political conditions be attached -- that workers have a member placed on the board of directors, that all stockholders be washed out before the company (that is, the employees) are bailed out, that limits be put on CEO pay, etc. They apparently believe these companies are in trouble because of greedy, incompetent managers, rather than because of the C-19 virus. These companies may need to be bailed out for the sake of the country, not just for the sake of the companies -- I mean, I want to be able to fly to the East Coast from here in New Mexico; I want the airlines to be there and relatively healthy. I think injecting these politically based extortions into the bailouts would be a serious mistake. The bailouts should be carefully measured, and the bailed-out companies shouldn't be allowed to take advantage of taxpayer money to improve their position beyond what it would have otherwise been, but we shouldn't use extortion for political gain.
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Here's a thought (from a moderately liberal Democrat old guy) --
I think some of the lefty Democrats are going to shoot themselves in the foot politically. Some are insisting if there are industry bailouts, that political conditions be attached -- that workers have a member placed on the board of directors, that all stockholders be washed out before the company (that is, the employees) are bailed out, that limits be put on CEO pay, etc. They apparently believe these companies are in trouble because of greedy, incompetent managers, rather than because of the C-19 virus. These companies may need to be bailed out for the sake of the country, not just for the sake of the companies -- I mean, I want to be able to fly to the East Coast from here in New Mexico; I want the airlines to be there and relatively healthy. I think injecting these politically based extortions into the bailouts would be a serious mistake. The bailouts should be carefully measured, and the bailed-out companies shouldn't be allowed to take advantage of taxpayer money to improve their position beyond what it would have otherwise been, but we shouldn't use extortion for political gain.
I have only so far heard Bernie say this. Is it spreading? If so, yes, many are going to shoot themselves.
You cant shut down the economy and destroy business (what the government is doing) and then use that as a backhanded way to push through your agenda with extortion. If I was a business owner in this situation, I'd choose bankruptcy and I have been reading about plenty of business people saying the same thing.
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I'll explain it. When anything remotely threatening happens, people buy guns. We have a thing in the U.S., promoted widely by gun companies, gun magazines and gun nuts, called the SHTF situation (Shit Hits The Fan.) This is usually a situation where all power plants fail at the same time, and every single government drops out of sight, beautiful Fox News newsreaders are eaten, and black people, who are 12% of the population, and high on all manner of drugs, come boiling out of the ghettos armed with machetes and overwhelm the 88% of the rest of us, paying special attention to beautiful blond women, which requires us to have guns. This is especially true in states that have no black people, because, you know, black people are like that. Even though, when you go to a gun show, most of the people there are either (a) old or (b) fat, or more likely (c) both, on the magazines they are portrayed as being tall, big-shouldered, wearing yellow blade sunglasses and head-to-toe camo, and armed with a black rifle and a high capacity handgun with which they'll be shooting those rabbits (and any black people they find up in the mountains.) My point being, if you can't get a C-19 vaccine, buy a gun.
Too funny. There was a report here in Canada yesterday about gun sales going way up (I can't remember which city). Reading the article, it was based on an interview with a gun shop owner. For all we know, he sold 3 guns last week instead of 1. When a reporter calls a salesman, what's he going to say, "I'm just having a sandwich." That would never be reported. Honestly, these reports sound more like marketing to me than anything else.
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Honestly, these reports sound more like marketing to me than anything else.
And do you think the photos of people lined up around the block to get into the gun stores are staged?
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And do you think the photos of people lined up around the block to get into the gun stores are staged?
Not all of them, no, I'm sure it does really happen. This risks going off topic for the thread though. Is one photo representative of a wider phenomenon? Hard for me to say. I'm a little surprised that gun sales haven't reached saturation yet. The stats I read make it sound like there are already more guns than people, or similar order of magnitude. Doesn't this happen after every school shooting too?
I'm a little too cynical sometimes, but it just seems too good a marketing opportunity to pass up. Are those news agencies just showing old stock pictures? Maybe not, but I would not be surprised. Just feels like a bit like a meme, is all I'm saying.
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Doesn't this happen after every school shooting too?
Sadly, yes. Gun nuts go out and buy more guns and ammo anticipating the latest incident will be the tipping point for restrictive gun legislation. Got to get them while you can. You can never have too many.
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And do you think the photos of people lined up around the block to get into the gun stores are staged?
No...that's a sign the hysteria marketing by the gun associations is working...like lemmings to the sea.
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Not all of them, no, I'm sure it does really happen. This risks going off topic for the thread though. Is one photo representative of a wider phenomenon? Hard for me to say. I'm a little surprised that gun sales haven't reached saturation yet. The stats I read make it sound like there are already more guns than people, or similar order of magnitude. Doesn't this happen after every school shooting too?
I'm a little too cynical sometimes, but it just seems too good a marketing opportunity to pass up. Are those news agencies just showing old stock pictures? Maybe not, but I would not be surprised. Just feels like a bit like a meme, is all I'm saying.
Come on, just like cameras, you can never have enough guns.
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Come on, just like cameras, you can never have enough guns.
You're right, what was I thinking?
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Sadly, yes. Gun nuts go out and buy more guns and ammo anticipating the latest incident will be the tipping point for restrictive gun legislation. Got to get them while you can. You can never have too many.
Here we have Toilet Paper people go out and buy more toilet paper anticipating an accident. Any more cases like that and we'll reach a tipping point for restrictive TP usage legislation.
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Too funny. There was a report here in Canada yesterday about gun sales going way up (I can't remember which city). Reading the article, it was based on an interview with a gun shop owner. For all we know, he sold 3 guns last week instead of 1. When a reporter calls a salesman, what's he going to say, "I'm just having a sandwich." That would never be reported. Honestly, these reports sound more like marketing to me than anything else.
There have been reports with video of gun shops that are void of product, shops with lines around the block, with people who have never owned a gun, and ammo gone. Take it for what you will but its not "marketing", just fact.
Its only a joke until you need that gun...which I sincerely hope is never.
Data to back up the increase in sales.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/gun-background-checks-double-colorado-amid-coronavirus-crisis/story?id=69666602
The number of firearms background checks in Colorado has doubled compared with the same time last year, perhaps a sign of the unease Americans feel amid the coronavirus crisis.
More than 14,000 background checks for firearms transfers have been received in the last week, compared to about 7,000 checks conducted in the same timeframe last year, the Colorado Bureau of Investigation said in a statement on Tuesday.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/coronavirus-gun-buyers.html
checks through the F.B.I. system leapt 36 percent in February compared with the same month last year, to a total of 2.8 million nationally — the largest year-over-year percentage increase in any month since July 2016 (another presidential election year). The agency processed more background checks in February than it had in all but two other months since it started performing the queries in the late 1990s.
January, when most confirmed cases of the virus were still mostly overseas, also saw a sizable increase in background checks, up 25 percent from the same month last year.
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Here's why the Chinese don't have anyone sick anymore. They don't mess around.
https://youtu.be/_uv2IoFYVDQ
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Here we have Toilet Paper people go out and buy more toilet paper anticipating an accident. Any more cases like that and we'll reach a tipping point for restrictive TP usage legislation.
No more than ten rolls in a package. Then you have to re-load.
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Here's a thought (from a moderately liberal Democrat old guy) --
I think some of the lefty Democrats are going to shoot themselves in the foot politically. Some are insisting if there are industry bailouts, that political conditions be attached -- that workers have a member placed on the board of directors, that all stockholders be washed out before the company (that is, the employees) are bailed out, that limits be put on CEO pay, etc. They apparently believe these companies are in trouble because of greedy, incompetent managers, rather than because of the C-19 virus. These companies may need to be bailed out for the sake of the country, not just for the sake of the companies -- I mean, I want to be able to fly to the East Coast from here in New Mexico; I want the airlines to be there and relatively healthy. I think injecting these politically based extortions into the bailouts would be a serious mistake. The bailouts should be carefully measured, and the bailed-out companies shouldn't be allowed to take advantage of taxpayer money to improve their position beyond what it would have otherwise been, but we shouldn't use extortion for political gain.
Bailouts are a waste. The government prints money that reduces the savings and income of the rest of society to redistribute money to these companies. People who can;t afford it bail out companies that have to survive on their own. These companies will rebound or not depending on circumstances. If there aren't enough flyers, then what good is all those airlines? The smarter ones will survive and the stupider ones will sell their planes being bought up by the successful airlines. They should reduce in quantity naturally or combine as the case may be. If there are enough customers coming back, then more companies will be able to pickup their old customers. When you invest in corporation, that's the chances you take. People who don;t profit when times are good should not be bailing you out when times are bad. The problem is we're not on the gold standard anymore. Fiat currency just means they can print whenever. That's why the country is broke and getting more broke. This is all just stupid.
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Bailouts are a waste. The government prints money that reduces the savings and income of the rest of society to redistribute money to these companies. People who can;t afford it bail out companies that have to survive on their own. These companies will rebound or not depending on circumstances. If there aren't enough flyers, then what good is all those airlines? The smarter ones will survive and the stupider ones will sell their planes being bought up by the successful airlines. They should reduce in quantity naturally or combine as the case may be. If there are enough customers coming back, then more companies will be able to pickup their old customers. When you invest in corporation, that's the chances you take. People who don;t profit when times are good should not be bailing you out when times are bad. The problem is we're not on the gold standard anymore. Fiat currency just means they can print whenever. That's why the country is broke and getting more broke. This is all just stupid.
Alan, although I disagree with the premise that people should be forced to hand over part of the ownership of their business to the government for loans, the fact is this is mostly the government fault.
Part of the 5th amendments states that the government can not seize your property without just compensation. The government is forcing business to close against their will, in many cases, and therefore should be providing compensation for this.
In 2008, I would have completely agreed with you. Here, the economic downturn is mainly that of the government.
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Thanks for proving my point.
No, Joe, it's my graddaughter who is the lawyer: I'm too slow to figure out how your point has been proved by my post; perchance you might explain?
Rob
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I'm doing working with some of my pharma retiree friends and tracking COVID-19 drug and vaccine trials. We already have a spread sheet of 28 different drugs and vaccines. Some of these are used at multiple sites and in various combinations.
I cut this quote from Alan from a different thread, but my answer would have been off-topic there and I didn't want to go off-topic, so...
I just read a Chinese report on the anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine which was found to be quite efficient in in-vitro tests, which doesn't mean that it would be in actual humans, but the signs are good. Also, it has been widely used for decades, and it is known to be very safe. The French have also found it to be efficacious against Covid-19, but the story I read about that didn't specific whether they found it to work only in vitro, or in actual cases. I think the French report involved actual cases, though, because they said it worked especially well in conjunction with an antibiotic, but I don't know what an antibiotic would have to do with a virus...
An unusual aspect of this is that Trump said in a press conference that this drug worked and would be immediately available, or something to that effect. But then an FDA doctor corrected him, and said, No, it wouldn't be, because it would have to go through "pragmatic" safety tests on Covid-19 to make sure it worked on that disease. That seems crazy to me -- if the drug is safe for several other conditions (it apparently is,) then give it to everybody, and find out if the death rate drops. That's a pragmatic trial right there. If I'm dying of Covid-19, I don't care if hydroxychloroquine hasn't been approved, I'm going to take it. It's apparently easy to manufacture and even now is widely available...
Edit: found a link on that. https://www.newsweek.com/hydroxychloroquine-malaria-drug-coronavirus-fda-1493293
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I cut this quote from Alan from a different thread, but my answer would have been off-topic there and I didn't want to go off-topic, so...
I just read a Chinese report on the anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine which was found to be quite efficient in in-vitro tests, which doesn't mean that it would be in actual humans, but the signs are good. Also, it has been widely used for decades, and it is known to be very safe. The French have also found it to be efficacious against Covid-19, but the story I read about that didn't specific whether they found it to work only in vitro, or in actual cases. I think the French report involved actual cases, though, because they said it worked especially well in conjunction with an antibiotic, but I don't know what an antibiotic would have to do with a virus...
An unusual aspect of this is that Trump said in a press conference that this drug worked and would be immediately available, or something to that effect. But then an FDA doctor corrected him, and said, No, it wouldn't be, because it would have to go through "pragmatic" safety tests on Covid-19 to make sure it worked on that disease. That seems crazy to me -- if the drug is safe for several other conditions (it apparently is,) then give it to everybody, and find out if the death rate drops. That's a pragmatic trial right there. If I'm dying of Covid-19, I don't care if hydroxychloroquine hasn't been approved, I'm going to take it. It's apparently easy to manufacture and even now is widely available...
Edit: found a link on that. https://www.newsweek.com/hydroxychloroquine-malaria-drug-coronavirus-fda-1493293
I have tried to restrain myself but here goes: this is FAKE NEWS!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The Newsweek story is garbage. The French study is an anecdote and maybe the data holds up; IIRC only 17 patients whose illness severity was not known. Hydroxychlorquine was approved by the FDA years ago and is available as a generic drug from multiple manufacturers. I have no idea what dosage is being used in clinical trials and there are multiple trials going on world wide. The dose for the malaria treatment is quite large as opposed to the dose for prophylaxis when traveling in malaria infected countries. It's not the most dangerous drug in the world but it can cause devastating retina degradation in some individuals. Trials for this will be relatively straight forward to do and data can be disseminated quickly.
Hope this helps.
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Isn't it odd when people compare the deaths per year from 'flu with those - so far - of coronavirus: it ain't as if the 'flu has stopped reaping skulls; it's additional, not either/or.
Happy walking, shooting and social intercourse!
;-(
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10,000 C19 deaths globally now, with Italy having a greater death count (3405) than China (3245), both in absolute and relative numbers.
Infections in China 81,000 vs Italy's 41,000. New infections in Italy 5,300, last day deaths 427, and no improvement in sight.
New infections in USA also rapidly on rise, over 4,000 new cases diagnosed today.
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A centralized source for articles: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/research/coronavirus/
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Gov. Tom Wolf orders all Pennsylvania businesses that aren’t ‘life-sustaining’ to close, will enforce order
https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/spl/pennsylvania-shutdown-lifesustaining-businesses-tom-wolf-shut-down-20200319.html
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Gov. Tom Wolf orders all Pennsylvania businesses that aren’t ‘life-sustaining’ to close, will enforce order
https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/spl/pennsylvania-shutdown-lifesustaining-businesses-tom-wolf-shut-down-20200319.html
France may extend 14-day coronavirus lockdown, claims 'idiots' breaking rules (https://www.foxnews.com/world/france-coronavirus-lockdown-idiots-breaking-rules)
So France cant even get their citizens to follow the rules, yet here in the USA ...
I seriously doubt this can be enforced. Philly police wont arrest thieves, drug dealers, pros and primps, but will punish citizens who do something legal under normal circumstances. I'm telling you, after talking to a few neighbors today, unless people start dropping like flies, no one is going to follow this for more then two weeks, three at the most.
At some point, no is going to care what the governor says. I can tell it is already starting to boil over. Even a doctor who lives on my block does not think the public will allow this to last much longer.
Make plans accordingly if you are in a group that could be effected seriously by this.
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France may extend 14-day coronavirus lockdown, claims 'idiots' breaking rules (https://www.foxnews.com/world/france-coronavirus-lockdown-idiots-breaking-rules)
So France cant even get their citizens to follow the rules, but here in the USA ...
I seriously doubt this can be enforced. Philly police wont arrest thieves, drug dealers, pros and primps, but will punish citizens who do something legal under normal circumstances. I'm telling you, after talking to a few neighbors today, unless people start dropping like flies, no one is going to follow this for more then two weeks, three at the most.
At some point, no is going to care what the governor says. I can tell it is already starting to boil over.
Quiet here. Downtown has some people working, but not many out walking. Some people walking the trails around town. Grocery stores offering online ordering and home delivery. No signs of any unrest...our head Doctor that does a daily conference on TV is very direct and a calming voice.
Don't people understand that this whole isolation is to prevent people from falling dead. Either the message is not getting across or the people just don't have the ability to understand the situation. In either case a sad situation if people will break their isolation as they'll then see their wish of people dropping dead come true.
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Quiet here. Downtown has some people working, but not many out walking. Some people walking the trails around town. Grocery stores offering online ordering and home delivery. No signs of any unrest...our head Doctor that does a daily conference on TV is very direct and a calming voice.
Don't people understand that this whole isolation is to prevent people from falling dead. Either the message is not getting across or the people just don't have the ability to understand the situation. In either case a sad situation if people will break their isolation as they'll then see their wish of people dropping dead come true.
It's human nature.
Instead of fighting it, I'd much rather see our public officials create plans that actually work with it.
I have been reading more and more that we may just all have to catch it anyway, much like chicken pox, and their are plenty of young people that would rather catch it now and just deal with it today then tomorrow. Truth be told, if it does in fact require the majority of us to catch it and become immune to end it, I'm in that group and nearly everyone will be as well.
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Sensible people should be able to walk on uncrowded streets and walkways, empty beaches or forest trails.
However, having beach parties and barbeque picnics or dancing in a tight tango embrace with a stranger would be irresponsible and stupid.
From German press on this very subject today:
Vice Prime Minister Joachim Stamp (FDP) therefore told SPIEGEL: "curfews are the last resort if sections of the population continue to behave irresponsibly and it is not possible to limit social contacts to a minimum with the measures taken to date." The Minister of Integration and Family is actually known for quiet statements. This time he says it clearly: "You have to say it brutally: If you don't stick to the rules now, you risk that the health system will be overloaded in a few weeks and, like in Italy, many people without oxygen masks will suffocate."
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Sensible people should be able to walk on uncrowded streets and walkways, empty beaches or forest trails.
However, having beach parties and barbeque picnics or dancing in a tight tango embrace with a stranger would be irresponsible and stupid.
I agree, and I don't think this is an impossible thing to have people do for two three weeks.
But the problem is it is unsustainable for more then that especially when our officials are not giving us timeframes of when it will be over.
The best analogy I heard on this is it is like a diet. If you tell people, listen, you need to go on a diet for a month, but after that you can slowly come off of it, most would be okay. But if you tell people you need to completely change your whole life style and don't even question us when you can back back to your old ways! Unless something serious happens, most just wont care after a month.
Same thing here. Our officials have not given us any info on how long this will last; they just expect us to do this indefinitely without an end plan in site. Sure, there will be some diehards, some nanny state people, that will listen, but most wont give a shit after two or three weeks. That's it! If our elected officials actaully want us to listen, they need to tell us how long this will last and what the end game is.
We have a better chance of making this isolation go even longer with mostly everyone following it if we know now the timeframe and end game. If not, it will collapse sooner then we think. And dont give me we just dont know the end game right now, because most wont care about that either, most want certainty and something to plan off of.
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It's human nature.
Instead of fighting it, I'd much rather see our public officials create plans that actually work with it.
I have been reading more and more that we may just all have to catch it anyway, much like chicken pox, and their are plenty of young people that would rather catch it now and just deal with it today then tomorrow. Truth be told, if it does in fact require the majority of us to catch it and become immune to end it, I'm in that group and nearly everyone will be as well.
Don't you understand that if everyone catches it today...many magnitudes more people will die because the medical community cannot deal with such an influx. Not only people that have the virus will die, so will people that need any kind of emergency or icu care. Are you so selfish that you'd rather get over it quickly along with the herd and carry on your old normal life and and not care about your neighbors dying
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If we can learn anything from China and South Korea, 45 days lockdown would be the most effective period.
2 weeks may help to slow down the disease, but there will be still enough viruses to get it started again.
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I agree, and I don't think this is an impossible thing to have people do for two three weeks.
But the problem is it is unsustainable for more then that especially when our officials are not giving us timeframes of when it will be over.
The best analogy I heard on this is it is like a diet. If you tell people, listen, you need to go on a diet for a month, but after that you can slowly come off of it, most would be okay. But if you tell people you need to completely change your whole life style and don't even question us when you can back back to your old ways! Unless something serious happens, most just wont care after a month.
Same thing here. Our officials have not given us any info on how long this will last; they just expect us to do this indefinitely without an end plan in site. Sure, there will be some diehards, some nanny state people, that will listen, but most wont give a shit after two or three weeks. That's it! If our elected officials actaully want us to listen, they need to tell us how long this will last and what the end game is.
We have a better chance of making this isolation go even longer with mostly everyone following it if we know now the timeframe and end game. If not, it will collapse sooner then we think. And dont give me we just dont know the end game right now, because most wont care about that either, most want certainty and something to plan off of.
New virus, new grounds...hard to do. And how well people isolate themselves really influences how long we need to keep isolating. But for you Joe, let's say 6 months...go hibernate now.
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If we can learn anything from China and South Korea, 45 days lockdown would be the most effective period.
2 weeks may help to slow down the disease, but there will be still enough viruses to get it started again.
But that was a full locdown. From things I've seen on the net, we are far from what China and South Korea citizens committed to.
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New virus, new grounds...hard to do. And how well people isolate themselves really influences how long we need to keep isolating. But for you Joe, let's say 6 months...go hibernate now.
Just showing how much you dont care to try and understand how real people will react to this. This whole thing will fail apart unless an end game is given or people start dying in large numbers.
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Don't you understand that if everyone catches it today...many magnitudes more people will die because the medical community cannot deal with such an influx. Not only people that have the virus will die, so will people that need any kind of emergency or icu care. Are you so selfish that you'd rather get over it quickly along with the herd and carry on your old normal life and and not care about your neighbors dying
LOL man. It is like trying to beat a dead horse with you.
You clearly don't understand human nature and how most people react. I'm just trying to explain to you how society will respond without a clear end game. It's not me; it's people in general.
I'm just advocating that we recognize it and plan around it, otherwise we'll be worse off when nobody cares what you or any other expert says.
Regardless of the concern or the request to self-isolate, my wife (while running errands today) saw the sidewalks filled on main streets. She was surprised to see so many out. They need to plan around this unchangeable human flaw now, before it is too late.
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This whole thing will fail apart unless an end game is given or people start dying in large numbers.
You keep saying this. Do you really believe that people will NOT start dying in large numbers?
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Just showing how much you dont care to try and understand how real people will react to this. This whole thing will fail apart unless an end game is given or people start dying in large numbers.
Sorry, but I just don't believe people in the US are so naive. Have they not seen what's happening in Italy...and this is even after drastic isolation measures. I give people more credit than that.
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LOL man. It is like trying to beat a dead horse with you.
You clearly don't understand human nature and how most people react. I'm just trying to explain to you how society will respond without a clear end game. It's not me; it's people in general.
I'm just advocating that we recognize it and plan around it, otherwise we'll be worse off when nobody cares what you or any other expert says.
Regardless of the concern or the request to self-isolate, my wife (while running errands today) saw the sidewalks filled on main streets. She was surprised to see so many out. They need to plan around this unchangeable human flaw now, before it is too late.
Ummm...I saw how people acted in China, in South Korea, in Italy...none are running wild in the streets with six shooters strapped to their hips. Maybe it's your narrow view of humanity that is wrong.
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You keep saying this. Do you really believe that people will NOT start dying in large numbers?
I think it is inevitable, and just like in Italy, that is when people will start to take this seriously enough to self-isolate, especially without a clear plan that explains exactly how long this will last.
With that said, I think the real limit here is two, possibly three, months. Since this only kills the elderly and those with other conditions, that is the real limit for everyone else to become numb to death to the point where they just move on. It be different if healthy people were being killed here.
This is just how I feel most will react to this.
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You keep saying this. Do you really believe that people will NOT start dying in large numbers?
I get a feeling Joe would be relieved if people start dying in droves.
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Ummm...I saw how people acted in China, in South Korea, in Italy...none are running wild in the streets with six shooters strapped to their hips. Maybe it's your narrow view of humanity that is wrong.
Well you're wrong about all of this.
People in China were forced through threat of being prisoned or killed to stay inside. A much more serious threat that what we could get away with here. So circumstance were very very different.
People in Italy only stayed inside after death was clearly behind the walls, which is how I feel the rest of the world will go, especially given the idea we can just lock it down without an end game.
South Korea did not shut it down like you suggest. They had wide spread testing available and required those with the virus to be quarantined and monitored them to make sure. However everyone else went about business as usual. Their economy did not come to a halt.
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I think it is inevitable, and just like in Italy, that is when people will start to take this seriously enough to self-isolate, especially without a clear plan that explains exactly how long this will last.
With that said, I think the real limit here is two, possibly three, months. Since this only kills the elderly and those with other conditions, that is the real limit for everyone else to become numb to death to the point where they just move on. It be different is healthy people were being killed here.
This is just how I feel most will react to this.
You are so wrong if you think only older people will die. When you hospital is totally overrun, people of all ages which cannot get the right care because the doctors are all busy or the equipment is all busy...you will just lie in a hallway and slowly die, be it from a heart attack, a car accident, or whatever else that makes you arrive in emergency or the icu.
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I get a feeling Joe would be relieved if people start dying in droves.
Chez, seriously? How dare you be so ignorant to suggest that.
You just showed exactly how much of an ignorant you are with this comment.
I reported you to the moderator over this.
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A map to show your friends who don’t understand why we keep the distance
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With that said, I think the real limit here is two, possibly three, months. Since this only kills the elderly and those with other conditions, that is the real limit for everyone else to become numb to death to the point where they just move on. It be different if healthy people were being killed here.
I just watched interviews with two doctors on CBC and they said two things:
1. Although the older people are more susceptible to the virus, there are also many people between 20 and 50 who get sick.
2. Even if you get through the disease, you don't develop an absolute immunity against it, and can contract it again.
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Otherwise there is another advantage to slowing this down. In my hospital there are big positive steps in how to deal with this more effectively, steps that wouldn’t have been possible without the extra time.
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A map to show your friends who don’t understand why we keep the distance
Good poster, especially for dummies. They should show it every day a few times on TV and put in the store windows.
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I think it is inevitable, and just like in Italy, that is when people will start to take this seriously enough to self-isolate, especially without a clear plan that explains exactly how long this will last.
It is inevitable if people behave like Italians, but the deaths can be drastically reduced if the situation is handled like in South Korea.
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It's going to be close to 80° here tomorrow where I live. Maybe it'll help kill the virus.
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It's going to be close to 80° here tomorrow where I live. Maybe it'll help kill the virus.
Or maybe not. As of today, both Florida and New Jersey show exactly nine Covid-19 fatalities.
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Nothing wrong with a little optimism in such a situation.
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Sorry, but I just don't believe people in the US are so naive. Have they not seen what's happening in Italy...and this is even after drastic isolation measures. I give people more credit than that.
Not everyone in the US agrees with Joe Kitchen.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/us/politics/coronavirus-heaven-frilot-mark-frilot.html?referringSource=articleShare
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Nothing wrong with a little optimism in such a situation.
I don't think Covid-19 is swayed by optimism.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_J60fQr0GWo (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_J60fQr0GWo)
(https://image.shutterstock.com/image-photo/business-people-falling-off-cliff-260nw-704201404.jpg)
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/us/politics/coronavirus-heaven-frilot-mark-frilot.html?referringSource=articleShare
Good article! Nice to follow some of the related articles too.
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Doctors Say Shortage of Protective Gear Is Dire During Coronavirus Pandemic https://nyti.ms/2UoIec3
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The biggest problem and stress factor is the uncertainty.
Putting up for a specific time with the stay-at-home policy wouldn't be such a problem if there is a light at the end of the tunnel, but the uncertainty and not being able to trust your own government in handling the crisis is the main issue.
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Try not to worry.
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/hDaDUL_KjKU/hqdefault.jpg)
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I get a feeling Joe would be relieved if people start dying in droves.
That is a truly nauseating comment. Retract it immediately and apologise.
Jeremy
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Not everyone in the US agrees with Joe Kitchen.
For all of your sakes, I hope you are right!
That said, perhaps Joe has developed a special immunity to disease: as he constanly refers to flies dropping dead (as if it were an everyday, visible occurance), let me say up front that without the use of a spray, I have never seen flies or even mosquitoes fall down and die. He must live in one helluva backwoods swamp to have that many flies and to have had the opportunity of watching so many fall down dead. Maybe that's where the next pestilence will arise: from all those dead flies.
Sky News today showed a filmed report of the inside of the hospìtal in Bergamo, Italy, and brief interviews - in English - with some staff.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_J60fQr0GWo
And this and its figures coming from a country will free medical care for all. It seems the US population has been granted a "temporary" close approximation to that now - I wonder if it marks the time when it will become permanent, when the poor will refuse to allow themselves to be dumped back on the trash again. (Remember, guns are not the province of the comparatively rich alone. So it may be a result of having them so widely available that at last, protection from your own govt, is actually what they will achieve.)
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People in Italy only stayed inside after death was clearly behind the walls, which is how I feel the rest of the world will go, especially given the idea we can just lock it down without an end game.
It is inevitable if people behave like Italians ...
And just hw exactly did the Italians behave ?
I think you both should be more careful not just over what you post but the manner in which you phrase it.
The Italians are barely one month into this. Isolation measures are into their third week. They moved with speed. No-one, surely, could help but be moved by the sight of army convoys moving the dead to temporary morgues under cover of night. 41,035 cases, 3,405 dead.
@Joe: Think about it and do us all a favour and stick your ignorance where it belongs. IIRC, you're married to an Italian - repeat 1/3 of your postings in Italy, if you ever go, and don't be in the least surprised 'si ti mandano nel tuo paese' or worse.
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49678933941_37efd6963a_n.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/2iFXwgP)
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And just hw exactly did the Italians behave ?
I think you both should be more careful not just over what you post but the manner in which you phrase it.
The Italians are barely one month into this. Isolation measures are into their third week. They moved with speed. No-one, surely, could help but be moved by the sight of army convoys moving the dead to temporary morgues under cover of night. 41,035 cases, 3,405 dead.
@Joe: Think about it and do us all a favour and stick your ignorance where it belongs. IIRC, you're married to an Italian - repeat 1/3 of your postings in Italy, if you ever go, and don't be in the least surprised 'si ti mandano nel tuo paese' or worse.
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49678933941_37efd6963a_n.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/2iFXwgP)
Trust me, much, much worse and final.
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And to answer Joe's request for an outlook on time, think in terms of Months of Social Distancing. Group immunity will only develop over months to a year, until there is a vaccine or 60-70 percent of the population has recovered from Covid-19. For that, also more clever ways of testing need to be developed, and increased testing capacity won't hurt.
As has been mentioned, group immunity is not the goal of social distancing, but avoiding an overloaded demand on ICU capacity is. China will see another outbreak as soon as their lockdown is lifted, unless they do it very very gradually.
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And just hw exactly did the Italians behave ?
I think you both should be more careful not just over what you post but the manner in which you phrase it.
The Italians are barely one month into this. Isolation measures are into their third week. They moved with speed. No-one, surely, could help but be moved by the sight of army convoys moving the dead to temporary morgues under cover of night. 41,035 cases, 3,405 dead.
Sorry for the wrong choice of words. I never meant to offend the Italian people, but to use Italy as a warning to prevent a similar situation in other countries. If you look at the video from the hospital in Northern Italy as posted by Rob, you'll see that the doctors and other medical staff in that video want the rest of the world to see the dire situation in Italy and to prevent it in their countries.
According to data from Italy’s civil protection authority, there were 823 cases of Covid-19 in Lazio as of Thursday night, compared with 102 on 9 March. In Campania, cases rose from 120 to 652 in 10 days, in Puglia from 50 to 478, in Sicily from 54 to 340, in Calabria from 11 to 169, and in the central Abruzzo region from 30 to 385.
“Doctors there are very concerned about a lack of equipment. As of Wednesday, we still had doctors in the main Covid-19 hospitals in Naples without face masks. One doctor had been using the same one for three days. The other concern is family doctors. In Calabria they received masks and goggles last week, but in Campania, as of Wednesday, they had nothing.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/19/southern-italy-braces-for-tsunami-of-conronavirus-cases
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It is inevitable if people behave like Italians, but the deaths can be drastically reduced if the situation is handled like in South Korea.
I agree, but that does not mean locking up the entire country, because that is not what they did. It is important to get this moving as quickly as possible to mimic the South Korea response, otherwise Things Fall Apart.
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And just hw exactly did the Italians behave ?
I think you both should be more careful not just over what you post but the manner in which you phrase it.
The Italians are barely one month into this. Isolation measures are into their third week. They moved with speed. No-one, surely, could help but be moved by the sight of army convoys moving the dead to temporary morgues under cover of night. 41,035 cases, 3,405 dead.
@Joe: Think about it and do us all a favour and stick your ignorance where it belongs. IIRC, you're married to an Italian - repeat 1/3 of your postings in Italy, if you ever go, and don't be in the least surprised 'si ti mandano nel tuo paese' or worse.
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49678933941_37efd6963a_n.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/2iFXwgP)
Italy has the 2nd oldest population in the world, they did not close off travel from China at the onset (like we did) bringing in cheap workers from China to Milan and surrounding areas, Italians have one of the largest social cultures that have inter-age mingling (compare that Germany where there is much less socialization between generations), it is more common to kiss and hug hello in Italy, etc. etc.
Talking about basic difference in culture and how Italy did not close off travel to China as quickly is not being ignorant.
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Italy has the 2nd oldest population in the world, they did not close off travel from China at the onset (like we did) bringing in cheap workers from China to Milan and surrounding areas [...]
Talking about basic difference in culture and how Italy did not close off travel to China as quickly is not being ignorant.
'You' didn't , 'You' had the benefit of advance warning, and 'You' still got roundly panned for a wanting initial response. The spread wasn't caused by an influx of cheap workers from China (where TF do you get this garbage from?) but triggered initially by one single person, turned away twice from a hospital who then proceeded to travel from North to South and couldn't be traced. By then the damage was done. An exponential explosion followed.
Lombardy, where the climate is more than 'humid' , proved to be the perfect festering ground for propagation. Unsurprisingly, you can't have noticed the difference in infection rates between the North and South.
South Korea was successful, mainly for two reasons: social-isolation and effective 'trace & quarantine', mainly through mobile phone records.
It's now a world-wide health emergency, otherwise known as a pandemic. Let's treat it as such.
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Another reason for the rapid spread of the virus in Italy was that people there underestimated and ignored the need for social isolation and proper distance.
As to South Korea, they did very extensive testing. Up to 20,000 tests a day, for a country of 51 million. That's about as much as the total number of tests in USA, 6 times the population, since the beginning of the outbreak.
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And to answer Joe's request for an outlook on time, think in terms of Months of Social Distancing. Group immunity will only develop over months to a year, until there is a vaccine or 60-70 percent of the population has recovered from Covid-19. For that, also more clever ways of testing need to be developed, and increased testing capacity won't hurt.
It should be possible at this point to develop a COVID-19 antibody test along the lines that is used for many other infectious diseases. This way they could check for background infections of asymptomatic individuals. I would require this testing as part of every clinical blood draw. It would help in identifying the real background rate of infection. It is my understanding that antibody tests are more robust and can be conducted in a quicker time frame.
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Another reason for the rapid spread of the virus in Italy was that people there underestimated and ignored the need for social isolation and proper distance.
As to South Korea, they did very extensive testing. They do up to 20,000 tests a day. That's about as much as the total number of tests in USA since the beginning of the outbreak.
And it's a huge failing we cant, for some reason, get to that!
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I was just listening to historian Victor Davis Hanson on this, who is 66, and feels we went from not doing enough, to getting it just right for about a week to totally over board on this, especially when you look at past responses to other diseases. He blames too much social media combined with the hysteria of an election year egging it on.
Cant say I disagree.
At some point, we also need to take into consideration the negative effects this will have on the economy. Suicide rates go up when unemployment does, as does addiction rates and related deaths. We have to start thinking about that as well.
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...
Lombardy, where the climate is more than 'humid' , proved to be the perfect festering ground for propagation. Unsurprisingly, you can't have noticed the difference in infection rates between the North and South.
...
I know the river-PO area is a very humid area in winter.
Did the carnaval time also added to the large amount of contaminated people? I know it was cancelled in Venezia, but probably the people coming for the carnaval were already there...
In the Netherlands our peak area is the carnaval area. Carnaval was not cancelled here.
What strikes me in Italy is the very high death rate. What is the cause of that?
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'You' didn't , 'You' had the benefit of advance warning, and 'You' still got roundly panned for a wanting initial response. The spread wasn't caused by an influx of cheap workers from China (where TF do you get this garbage from?) but triggered initially by one single person, turned away twice from a hospital who then proceeded to travel from North to South and couldn't be traced. By then the damage was done. An exponential explosion followed.
Lombardy, where the climate is more than 'humid' , proved to be the perfect festering ground for propagation. Unsurprisingly, you can't have noticed the difference in infection rates between the North and South.
South Korea was successful, mainly for two reasons: social-isolation and effective 'trace & quarantine', mainly through mobile phone records.
It's now a world-wide health emergency, otherwise known as a pandemic. Let's treat it as such.
I will admit, the source I got this from was wrong, which is pretty reliable.
In looking for an article to defend my position, I found this one from Forbes:
Italy Banned Flights From China Before America - It Didn’t Work (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davekeating/2020/03/12/italy-banned-flights-from-china-before-americait-didnt-work/#4f4f4d14481b)
My apologies.
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I read an opinion somewhere about what was (is) different about Italy and many people believe that there is nothing different there. It's what would happen everywhere if measures aren't taken and taken speedily. They were unlucky enough to be the first in Europe and happened to get hit hard because of a number of conditions that were badly aligned. There was always going to be a place that was hit worst. It's important to use the info from their experience.
Some poor 23 year old in Toronto (I think) just recovered and was interviewed. He and many others caught it at spring break parties. Imagine if distancing actions had been delayed by a week or two so that the bars in Florida didn't lose sales. The result would have been thousands of bio-hazards flying home to friends and family all over the continent.
I'm beginning to read reports that the self-immunization that you get from having it may not last long so that you can get it again very soon after the first infection. The reports I read seem to vary on this though so it doesn't sound like this has been nailed down yet. Probably needs more data and analysis.
I remember an early report out of China (maybe, I don't trust my memory) about how people of blood type O seemed to getting less serious symptoms. Is that holding up or was it just an incorrect premature conjecture?
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It should be possible at this point to develop a COVID-19 antibody test along the lines that is used for many other infectious diseases. This way they could check for background infections of asymptomatic individuals. I would require this testing as part of every clinical blood draw. It would help in identifying the real background rate of infection. It is my understanding that antibody tests are more robust and can be conducted in a quicker time frame.
Correct, and that's exactly what the "Blood Banks" in the Netherlands are starting to do, next week or so. That should give a statistically relevant test for how many people have been in contact with the virus, symptoms or not.
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Web page to see which National Parks are closed or have limited service. Utah is selected right now. Select the state you're interested in. Seems like most are open with visitor centers having limited access which seems reasonable. Trump has waived entrance fees.
https://www.nps.gov/planyourvisit/alerts.htm?t=Closure&p=1&v=1
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Sensible people should be able to walk on uncrowded streets and walkways, empty beaches or forest trails.
However, having beach parties and barbeque picnics or dancing in a tight tango embrace with a stranger would be irresponsible and stupid.
From German press on this very subject today:
The videos shown on TV of crowded beaches used telephoto lenses. We know about compression being photographers. Everyone looks much more cramped together than they are. Of course the newscasters deliberately do that for effect.
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Correct, and that's exactly what the "Blood Banks" in the Netherlands are starting to do, next week or so. That should give a statistically relevant test for how many people have been in contact with the virus, symptoms or not.
I just wanted to inject something slightly off-topic. Imagine if part of all the intellectual energy put into tracking our buying and viewing habits online was instead re-directed at big medical data around the world to streamline epidemiology. I hope that I'm utterly ignorant about this and that it is actually already going on.
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The biggest problem and stress factor is the uncertainty.
Putting up for a specific time with the stay-at-home policy wouldn't be such a problem if there is a light at the end of the tunnel, but the uncertainty and not being able to trust your own government in handling the crisis is the main issue.
Are you referring to the Canadian government where you live?
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Jim, you can hammer that point home all you want. Trust me when I say there are many Americans that could case less about what the best and brightest minds think, and this will only increase if the death rate remains low. I'm am taking that into account with how I think people will handle this thing. Warmer weather without a large amount of deaths will bring people out.
But anyway, here is some dire news from JP Morgan.
Coronavirus will hit US economy harder than 2008 financial crisis: J.P. Morgan (https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/coronavirus-us-economy-depression-like-contraction-before-growth-j-p-morgan)
"The firm sees the U.S. economy shrinking by 5.3 percent from January through March and 14 percent during the following three months. By comparison, the U.S. economy contracted by 7.2 percent during the fourth quarter of 2008, its worst of the global financial crisis, according to the St. Louis Fed.
Still, a sharp snap back to 6 percent growth in the third quarter of this year and 2.3 percent in the fourth leaves the long-term outlook less dire than both the worst year of the financial crisis and the earliest years for which data is available on the Great Depression."
Anyway, at this point, I'm just happy the perennials I ordered in January were still shipped this week and will arrive in time for planting season. Judging by the grocery, having a means to produce your own food is a positive right now.
Well Joe there is really nothing for us to argue or fall out about. Let's just wait one week and see where we all are shall we. Oh, I did seem to read this morning that the whole state of California is advising everyone to stay home. The governor there suggests that 25 million people there may contract the virus in the next 8 weeks. If, and that is a big if, only 1% of that number die - unless my maths is faulty that is 250,000 deaths - in one state. But as I say, let's wait and see......
Jim
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And to answer Joe's request for an outlook on time, think in terms of Months of Social Distancing. Group immunity will only develop over months to a year, until there is a vaccine or 60-70 percent of the population has recovered from Covid-19. For that, also more clever ways of testing need to be developed, and increased testing capacity won't hurt.
As has been mentioned, group immunity is not the goal of social distancing, but avoiding an overloaded demand on ICU capacity is. China will see another outbreak as soon as their lockdown is lifted, unless they do it very very gradually.
I thought they're all going back to work and Apple stores are opening throughout China? So we should be seeing an outbreak now. No?
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I just wanted to inject something slightly off-topic. Imagine if part of all the intellectual energy put into tracking our buying and viewing habits online was instead re-directed at big medical data around the world to streamline epidemiology. I hope that I'm utterly ignorant about this and that it is actually already going on.
You're correct, and apparently it's happening:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=78vz5HAFDQU
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What strikes me in Italy is the very high death rate. What is the cause of that?
Older population and high incidence of existing medical conditions including lung damage from years of smoking. Death rate in men has been much higher in most all areas and there is reasonably good data regarding higher cigarette smoking among men as compared to women.
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Sensible people should be able to walk on uncrowded streets and walkways, empty beaches or forest trails.
However, having beach parties and barbeque picnics or dancing in a tight tango embrace with a stranger would be irresponsible and stupid.
How invasive policies become are time and place dependent. Italy and Spain have banned cycling, even solo rides. This seems questionable on the face of it until you factor in the paramedics and hospital staff required to treat cycling accidents. Normally there aren't THAT many of those, but when there is no margin for error, even one may be a lot. People the world over don't like to be told what to do (it's decidedly not just an American thing) even when it is for their own good. Imagine falling off your bike and breaking a collar bone and no one is available to come get you and no hospital can take you in anyway.
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I'll explain it. When anything remotely threatening happens, people buy guns. We have a thing in the U.S., promoted widely by gun companies, gun magazines and gun nuts, called the SHTF situation (Shit Hits The Fan.) This is usually a situation where all power plants fail at the same time, and every single government drops out of sight, beautiful Fox News newsreaders are eaten, and black people, who are 12% of the population, and high on all manner of drugs, come boiling out of the ghettos armed with machetes and overwhelm the 88% of the rest of us, paying special attention to beautiful blond women, which requires us to have guns. This is especially true in states that have no black people, because, you know, black people are like that. Even though, when you go to a gun show, most of the people there are either (a) old or (b) fat, or more likely (c) both, on the magazines they are portrayed as being tall, big-shouldered, wearing yellow blade sunglasses and head-to-toe camo, and armed with a black rifle and a high capacity handgun with which they'll be shooting those rabbits (and any black people they find up in the mountains.) My point being, if you can't get a C-19 vaccine, buy a gun.
Thank you John - that does explain a lot......
Jim
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Just been out to our local supermarket on Skye and pretty much everything is closed already and all the schools are going into lock down from today. Also hardly any traffic on the roads and zero tourists, but the supermarket shelves seemed pretty well stocked for the moment, except for the usually panic buy products such as bog rolls and pasta - why are people panicking about toilet rolls and pasta?. I went out yesterday with the camera for the last time probably and at least until I am told it is safe to do so once again, which is really annoying as the weather has finally turned and the mountains look beautiful and snow capped at the moment aaaaargh!. Because I thought as we are quite remote and fairly unpopulated at this time of year anyway and the few visitors that would normally come here at this time of year are now staying away, so I could still self isolate even when I was out and about, as there just isn't anyone here to isolate from at the moment, even at any of the well known scenic locations on Skye, which is a sort of weirdly amazing thing to see, with all this complete emptiness of people, yet it feels totally scary at the same time.
Stay well people, we can all get through this, we just need to hunker down until it passes, or someone comes up with a quick test to identify who's got it, or we find a cure.
Dave
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I just wanted to inject something slightly off-topic. Imagine if part of all the intellectual energy put into tracking our buying and viewing habits online was instead re-directed at big medical data around the world to streamline epidemiology. I hope that I'm utterly ignorant about this and that it is actually already going on.
You can donate your own computer to the fight: https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/software/folding-home-now-has-23-coronavirus-projects-donate-cpu-power/ this allows remote access to your CPU/GPU to help do massive computer research. Lots of people participate in this.
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You can donate your own computer to the fight: https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/software/folding-home-now-has-23-coronavirus-projects-donate-cpu-power/ this allows remote access to your CPU/GPU to help do massive computer research. Lots of people participate in this.
Thanks.
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I will admit, the source I got this from was wrong, which is pretty reliable.
In looking for an article to defend my position, I found this one from Forbes:
My apologies.
Joe,
first paragraph, first sentence: " Speaking to the nation last night, U.S. President Donald Trump said .."
enough of a qualification that nothing should be taken at face value.
Nothing personal, Joe - let's bury a non-existant hatchet.
It does behove us all to be responsible and realise the importance and extent of this health emergency. BTW, the foolhardy aren't limited to the USA. SKY News reporting that inspite of all precautions and advisories by UK gov, we stiil have idiots insisting on frequenting pubs (bars) etc etc. Schools are closed, country close to lockdown but lets keep boozing ...
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And to answer Joe's request for an outlook on time, think in terms of Months of Social Distancing. Group immunity will only develop over months to a year, until there is a vaccine or 60-70 percent of the population has recovered from Covid-19. For that, also more clever ways of testing need to be developed, and increased testing capacity won't hurt.
As has been mentioned, group immunity is not the goal of social distancing, but avoiding an overloaded demand on ICU capacity is. China will see another outbreak as soon as their lockdown is lifted, unless they do it very very gradually.
I thought they're all going back to work and Apple stores are opening throughout China? So we chouls be seeing an outbreak now. No?I will admit, the source I got this from was wrong, which is pretty reliable.
In looking for an article to defend my position, I found this one from Forbes:
Italy Banned Flights From China Before America - It Didn’t Work (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davekeating/2020/03/12/italy-banned-flights-from-china-before-americait-didnt-work/#4f4f4d14481b)
My apologies.
I read somewhere that the average age of those who died in Italy was 81 years.
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Joe,
first paragraph, first sentence: " Speaking to the nation last night, U.S. President Donald Trump said .."
enough of a qualification that nothing should be taken at face value.
Nothing personal, Joe - let's bury a non-existant hatchet.
It does behove us all to be responsible and realise the importance and extent of this health emergency. BTW, the foolhardy aren't limited to the USA. SKY News reporting that inspite of all precautions and advisories by UK gov, we stiil have idiots insisting on frequenting pubs (bars) etc etc. Schools are closed, country close to lockdown but lets keep boozing ...
Well my source was not Trump; I know better. Buried it is.
Yes, I cant believe people are frequenting bars right now, this week. In two or three weeks though? Just saying we need to start thinking ahead to how people will react.
It just seems like we are ad hocking it right now.
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Are you referring to the Canadian government where you live?
Unfortunately, there are quite a few governments with that distinction, USA one of them.
OTOH, California governor Gavin Newsom moved very decisively by ordering all in California to stay at home and at the same time predicting 25 million infections. 25M is a huge number, hopefully it won't come to that.
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UKGOV - just released, self explanatory :
During a response to a virus of this nature, it is imperative that the public is confident the government has based its decisions on a representative range of the most up-to-date science advice. In the case of COVID-19, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) has been providing ministers and officials with free and frank advice throughout, based on external scientific evidence and a wide source of essential information.
Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE): Coronavirus (COVID-19) response (https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response)
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Well my source was not Trump; I know better. Buried it is.
Yes, I cant believe people are frequenting bars right now, this week. In two or three weeks though? Just saying we need to start thinking ahead to how people will react.
It just seems like we are ad hocking it right now.
Joe - I think in a few weeks time you will not want to risk any sort of outing or injury. Chances are that all the hospitals will be overflowing with very old people and there will be no available emergency care for any younger folk who need it. So although direct deaths from Coronavirus will be mainly in the elderly, indirect deaths will affect all age groups. Traffic accidents, heart attacks, seizures in children, maternity emergencies. It is for their sake the population needs to heed the advice. As intelligent, thinking people, let's do our best.
Jim
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Joe,
first paragraph, first sentence: " Speaking to the nation last night, U.S. President Donald Trump said .."
enough of a qualification that nothing should be taken at face value.
Nothing personal, Joe - let's bury a non-existant hatchet.
It does behove us all to be responsible and realise the importance and extent of this health emergency. BTW, the foolhardy aren't limited to the USA. SKY News reporting that inspite of all precautions and advisories by UK gov, we stiil have idiots insisting on frequenting pubs (bars) etc etc. Schools are closed, country close to lockdown but lets keep boozing ...
Including our Prime Minister's father!
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Slobodan has gone very quiet. He and I might not agree on much but I hope all is well and that he is recovering from whatever bug he has.
I fear this is going to happen more and more, contributors going quiet and the not knowing...
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Including our Prime Minister's father!
I know , Keith. I thought I'd try and be diplomatic by not mentioning it directly. :) It was, IMO, always Jo and Rachel Johnson who flew (and fly) the flag for that family.
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Here is what will probably be my only US political comment. As elected US representatives have to disclose financial transactions, it turns out that Senator Richard Burr, chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee and possessor of a lot of knowledge about what was going on, sold $1.5M worth of stock in late February and then to compound things told as closed group of businessmen that COVID-19 was going to be worse than the 1918 flu. Senator Kelly Loeffler of Georgia sold over $1.5M worth stock and bought a lot of CITRIX stock (online conference platform company). Tucker Carlson of FOX News went after Senator Burr last night calling for his resignation and requesting prosecution for insider trading. Here is one web link among many: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/03/20/coronavirus-tucker-carlson-burr/
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Slobodan has gone very quiet.
Notwithstanding our differences, I wish him a full and speedy recovery.
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I thought they're all going back to work and Apple stores are opening throughout China? So we should be seeing an outbreak now. No?
I don't think so. It wouldn't be wise either. I expect a very gradual relaxing of the total lockdown. The moment things start flaring up, back to total lockdown.
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Slobodan has gone very quiet. He and I might not agree on much but I hope all is well and that he is recovering from whatever bug he has.
I fear this is going to happen more and more, contributors going quiet and the not knowing...
Regardless of our different points of view a forum like this becomes a community and a small lifeline to sanity in times like these. The worldwide nature gives us a view of our surrounding world in a very personal way. Sadly many of us here are older and more at risk, so yes, seeing people not coment for lenghty timeframes is worrying. If you pray ,lift up one for Slobodan and the world in general.
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Lessons from the lockdown (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/extra/dj3jonuhi1/coronavirus-year-of-the-mask)
The northern Italian town of Codogno.
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Here is what will probably be my only US political comment. As elected US representatives have to disclose financial transactions, it turns out that Senator Richard Burr, chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee and possessor of a lot of knowledge about what was going on, sold $1.5M worth of stock in late February and then to compound things told as closed group of businessmen that COVID-19 was going to be worse than the 1918 flu. Senator Kelly Loeffler of Georgia sold over $1.5M worth stock and bought a lot of CITRIX stock (online conference platform company). Tucker Carlson of FOX News went after Senator Burr last night calling for his resignation and requesting prosecution for insider trading. Here is one web link among many: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/03/20/coronavirus-tucker-carlson-burr/
He wasn't even the only one, Sen. Kelly Loeffler also sold stocks in the millions. I'm going to bet that these senators also voted against the relief package for COVID-19.
It sure is good to have access to all that sweet first hand info on the Pandemic.
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Including our Prime Minister's father!
Are you serious? Surely he is not visiting the pubs right now.
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Here is what will probably be my only US political comment. As elected US representatives have to disclose financial transactions, it turns out that Senator Richard Burr, chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee and possessor of a lot of knowledge about what was going on, sold $1.5M worth of stock in late February and then to compound things told as closed group of businessmen that COVID-19 was going to be worse than the 1918 flu. Senator Kelly Loeffler of Georgia sold over $1.5M worth stock and bought a lot of CITRIX stock (online conference platform company). Tucker Carlson of FOX News went after Senator Burr last night calling for his resignation and requesting prosecution for insider trading. Here is one web link among many: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/03/20/coronavirus-tucker-carlson-burr/
I dont even know how you can come back from this politically. Their careers are over.
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Here is what will probably be my only US political comment. As elected US representatives have to disclose financial transactions, it turns out that Senator Richard Burr, chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee and possessor of a lot of knowledge about what was going on, sold $1.5M worth of stock in late February and then to compound things told as closed group of businessmen that COVID-19 was going to be worse than the 1918 flu. Senator Kelly Loeffler of Georgia sold over $1.5M worth stock and bought a lot of CITRIX stock (online conference platform company). Tucker Carlson of FOX News went after Senator Burr last night calling for his resignation and requesting prosecution for insider trading. Here is one web link among many: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/03/20/coronavirus-tucker-carlson-burr/
I think Feinstien did too. I agree with Tucker. They need to face the music, AND resigning should be on the table as well.
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Please forgive me a couple of smart-ass comments.
Over human history, we have settled on eating a relatively small number of domesticated animal and vegetable species. My understanding is that many (if not all) of our recent pathogen scares can trace their origins to unhygienic mixing of wild animal species with domesticated ones, especially in those now infamous wet markets in China.
Question: Do we know of any pathogens that can be traced to plants?
My first comment. The government in China has tried, though not very emphatically, to curb these practices. I can't help but wonder how much of that is because people don't like their government telling them what to do or because governments need/want those food sources. I'm sure the reason things are as they are is because of a variety of reasons.
My second comment. I can't help but wonder how many vegans are sitting at home thinking, "Told ya."
:)
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I dont even know how you can come back from this politically. Their careers are over.
I hope you're right, but as a cynical pessimist when it comes to white collar crime, I fear you're being optimistic.
And if the worst that happens to them is that their political careers are over, my cynical response would be, "Hey, I'd take that." They have the cash, they will probably retain their elected office pension, and some corporation or lobbying organization will hire them because that's exactly the kind of person they want in their organization.
I sincerely hope that I am so stupidly wrong.
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Please forgive me a couple of smart-ass comments.
Over human history, we have settled on eating a relatively small number of domesticated animal and vegetable species. My understanding is that many (if not all) of our recent pathogen scares can trace their origins to unhygienic mixing of wild animal species with domesticated ones, especially in those now infamous wet markets in China.
Question: Do we know of any pathogens that can be traced to plants?
My first comment. The government in China has tried, though not very emphatically, to curb these practices. I can't help but wonder how much of that is because people don't like their government telling them what to do or because governments need/want those food sources. I'm sure the reason things are as they are is because of a variety of reasons.
My second comment. I can't help but wonder how many vegans are sitting at home thinking, "Told ya."
:)
My response to this is that up until around the 1910s, we in the west had some seriously bad food practices brought to light by The Jungle. We reformed for the better; let's hope China does to. If they can not, like we did so many decades ago, then I am for making the travel restrictions to China permanent.
We cant afford as a world to go through this every 4 or 5 years. This is not the first disease to come from these wet markets.
Insofar as plants are concerned, I doubt pathogens could ever came from plants. It is already difficult enough for pathogens to jump species close to each other. Jumping to a whole different kingdom I dont see as possible. This is not to say people dont get sick from bacteria developing on those plants. But a blight (plant pathogen) jumping to a human, I presume to be nearly impossible.
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Are you serious? Surely he is not visiting the pubs right now.
Yes, deadly serious.
Of course I'll go to the pub (https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/stanley-johnson-of-course-i-ll-go-to-the-pub-)
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The videos shown on TV of crowded beaches used telephoto lenses. We know about compression being photographers. Everyone looks much more cramped together than they are. Of course the newscasters deliberately do that for effect.
You guys are unbelievable.
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Over human history, we have settled on eating a relatively small number of domesticated animal and vegetable species. My understanding is that many (if not all) of our recent pathogen scares can trace their origins to unhygienic mixing of wild animal species with domesticated ones, especially in those now infamous wet markets in China.
Question: Do we know of any pathogens that can be traced to plants?
Plants viruses have not been shown to cross species lines. However, plants do manufacture a variety of poisonous substances (ricin toxin is perhaps the best example and has been used to assassinate a couple of people that I'm aware of). Plants also can carry pathogenic microorganisms if improperly handled (semi-frequent E.coli outbreaks in the US from tainted Romaine lettuce).
Yes, the Chinese open air markets need to be cleaned up. That won't solve the problem entirely. Seasonal flu variations come about from viruses jumping between humans, fowl (principally ducks), and pigs which are all prevalent in China.
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Slobodan has gone very quiet. He and I might not agree on much but I hope all is well and that he is recovering from whatever bug he has.
Oh god no, not Slobodan? This site would not be the same without him and all the rest of you, so I really do hope he hasn't got the damn virus and he fully recovers from whatever it is that he has got.
Be safe everyone, stay indoors and self isolate if you can and follow whatever advice is being broadcast to you.
These are dark days indeed >:(
Dave
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About the Italian situation, it's possible that the virus was circulating there before it was even recognized as a serious threat in China. I read a report yesterday in which an Italian epidemiologist said they had several reports of an unusual and intractable pneumonia in the Milan region back as far as November, affecting mostly elderly people. Milan is a big fashion center, with many of the fashions coming out of there fabricated in China. I wonder if the virus was circulating there mostly unseen, or perhaps mistaken for the flu, long before the problem exploded?
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I hope you're right, but as a cynical pessimist when it comes to white collar crime, I fear you're being optimistic.
And if the worst that happens to them is that their political careers are over, my cynical response would be, "Hey, I'd take that." They have the cash, they will probably retain their elected office pension, and some corporation or lobbying organization will hire them because that's exactly the kind of person they want in their organization.
I sincerely hope that I am so stupidly wrong.
Just read Feinstein was another who did this.
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I think it is inevitable, and just like in Italy, that is when people will start to take this seriously enough to self-isolate, especially without a clear plan that explains exactly how long this will last.
With that said, I think the real limit here is two, possibly three, months. Since this only kills the elderly and those with other conditions, that is the real limit for everyone else to become numb to death to the point where they just move on. It be different if healthy people were being killed here.
This is just how I feel most will react to this.
Are you really so ignorant as to believe this? My granddaughter had this virus. She's 20 and in good health. She was taken to the hospital by ambulance because she was having dificulty breathing. Fortunately it was early in the cycle where she lives, and the hospital was not overwhelmed. Had it been a few weeks later, there's no guarantee at all that she would have survived.
I've read pages and pages of you talking about beng "rational" and telling us what people won't do, and that government should make plans with that in mind. Other than creating internment camps for old and vulnerable people (a spectacularly stupid or cruel idea that puts the most vulnerable people in close proximity to one another where they wil be even more vulnerable to transmission of the disease if isolation is not perfect—and not even you could be naieve enough to believe that isolation will be perfect) I can't recall any suggestion you've made that would serve any useful purpose at all.
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Are you really so ignorant as to believe this? My granddaughter had this virus. She's 20 and in good health. She was taken to the hospital by ambulance because she was having dificulty breathing. Fortunately it was early in the cycle where she lives, and the hospital was not overwhelmed. Had it been a few weeks later, there's no guarantee at all that she would have survived.
I've read pages and pages of you talking about beng "rational" and telling us what people won't do, and that government should make plans with that in mind. Other than creating internment camps for old and vulnerable people (a spectacularly stupid or cruel idea that puts the most vulnerable people in close proximity to one another where they wil be even more vulnerable to transmission of the disease if isolation is not perfect—and not even you could be naieve enough to believe that isolation will be perfect) I can't recall any suggestion you've made that would serve any useful purpose at all.
I'm just going by reports out of Italy, specifically the 99% of those who succumb to the disease had other issues or are elderly. From a statistical point of view, the less than 1% being healthy and young are outliers.
Over 99% of coronavirus patients in Italy who died had other health problems (https://nypost.com/2020/03/18/over-99-of-coronavirus-patients-in-italy-who-died-had-other-illnesses/)
I am still going to look at this logically and from a statistical point of view. With the sole exception of my wife contracting and succumbing to this, my response is not going to be emotional. As I noted before, I dont believe in allowing emotions to dictate thought when looking at a problem, nor does it help in anyway.
Sorry for your granddaughter; good to hear she recovered.
Furthermore, the suggestion of isolating those at risk was not mine, I merely thought it could be a good idea. On top of that, no where did I suggest it should be mandatory. Second, I also believed I mentioned increasing services for those at risk, which could be (but I did not list) delivery of food and other essentials to their homes.
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Tucker Carlson of FOX News went after Senator Burr last night calling for his resignation and requesting prosecution for insider trading. Here is one web link among many: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/03/20/coronavirus-tucker-carlson-burr/
Resignation is one thing, prosecution for insider trading may be another. U.S. laws and federal agency regulations regarding insider trading are complex, and I'm certainly no expert on them, but in general to be in violation an investor needs to be acting on "inside information" from a specific company or companies—i.e., from a source with access to company-confidential information. Acting on a government briefing about an external event that could have broad consequences for the economy probably would be insufficient to sustain a prosecution.
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Oh god no, not Slobodan? This site would not be the same without him and all the rest of you, so I really do hope he hasn't got the damn virus and he fully recovers from whatever it is that he has got.
Be safe everyone, stay indoors and self isolate if you can and follow whatever advice is being broadcast to you.
These are dark days indeed >:(
Dave
I pm’d him yesterday for this very reason. No response yet, but his profile showed he was active yesterday IIRC. Like you I hope all is ok.
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About the Italian situation, it's possible that the virus was circulating there before it was even recognized as a serious threat in China. I read a report yesterday in which an Italian epidemiologist said they had several reports of an unusual and intractable pneumonia in the Milan region back as far as November, affecting mostly elderly people. Milan is a big fashion center, with many of the fashions coming out of there fabricated in China. I wonder if the virus was circulating there mostly unseen, or perhaps mistaken for the flu, long before the problem exploded?
We’ll know for sure when a certain someone starts ranting about “the ITALIAN virus.” What? Whadya mean that will never happen???
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We’ll know for sure when a certain someone starts ranting about “the ITALIAN virus.” What? Whadya mean that will never happen???
Let's hope to God not. The media has already done enough damage branding it the Chinese Virus.
Media Called Coronavirus "Wuhan" Or "Chinese Coronavirus" Dozens Of Times (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/03/12/media_called_coronavirus_wuhan_or_chinese_coronavirus_dozens_of_times.html)
And it so great to see so many start to give into Chinese Communist propaganda here, since, you know, it was China who declared this was racist in trying to deflect responsibility.
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Are you really so ignorant as to believe this? My granddaughter had this virus. She's 20 and in good health. She was taken to the hospital by ambulance because she was having dificulty breathing. Fortunately it was early in the cycle where she lives, and the hospital was not overwhelmed. Had it been a few weeks later, there's no guarantee at all that she would have survived.
I’m sorry to hear this, but glad she is recovering. One of my closest friends, late 40s (Normal health, non smoker), was admitted last Thursday and was unresponsive and on life support by Friday night. Recovering now, but it was very iffy.
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And it so great to see so many start to give into Chinese Communist propaganda here, since, you know, it was China who declared this was racist in trying to deflect responsibility.
You forgot to blame the latin gangs. They're in on it too. (https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/03/donald-trump-chanel-rion-coronavirus)
Pro tip: OANN is bad for America. Stay away.
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With the sole exception of my wife contracting and succumbing to this, my response is not going to be emotional. As I noted before, I dont believe in allowing emotions to dictate thought when looking at a problem, nor does it help in anyway.
No slots for close family & friends even? Damn, that's cold.
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You forgot to blame the latin gangs. They're in on it too. (https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/03/donald-trump-chanel-rion-coronavirus)
Pro tip: OANN is bad for America. Stay away.
Ahhh, yes, the use of the term "Batshit Reporter" in a title just instills a high level of confidence of the reporting onto the reader. ;)
Seriously, I am not going to put up with the hypocrisy of the left wing media suddenly trying to accuse Trump of being racist in saying Chinese virus when they did it for weeks beforehand.
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No slots for close family & friends even? Damn, that's cold.
I would be seriously distraught to say the least. But insofar as loosing my mental capacity to isolate the emotional side of my brain and think logically, I can logically only think of one scenario for this to happen.
It's how I am wired. I have never, for as long as I can recall, ever understood how a person can allow their logic to be swayed by emotion.
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Ahhh, yes, the use of the term "Batshit Reporter" in a title just instills a high level of confidence onto the reader. ;)
Nevertheless, an appropriate description.
Seriously, I am not going to put up with the hypocrisy of the left wing media suddenly trying to accuse Trump of being racist in saying Chinese virus when they did it for weeks beforehand.
Got it. So you're taking the "batshit reporter" perspective. "Gosh President Trump, it's not racist when we order CHINESE FOOD is it???"
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Since this only kills the elderly and those with other conditions, that is the real limit for everyone else to become numb to death to the point where they just move on. It be different if healthy people were being killed here.
Are you really so ignorant as to believe this? My granddaughter had this virus. She's 20 and in good health. She was taken to the hospital by ambulance because she was having dificulty breathing. Fortunately it was early in the cycle where she lives, and the hospital was not overwhelmed. Had it been a few weeks later, there's no guarantee at all that she would have survived.
While it's clearly wrong to suggest that it "only" kills the elderly and those with other conditions, anecdote is not data and one case does not refute the general proposition that this is a far, far more dangerous disease in the elderly. See this paper (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf), from the COVID-19 response team at Imperial College, and in particular the table on page 5.
Jeremy
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How invasive policies become are time and place dependent. Italy and Spain have banned cycling, even solo rides. This seems questionable on the face of it until you factor in the paramedics and hospital staff required to treat cycling accidents. Normally there aren't THAT many of those, but when there is no margin for error, even one may be a lot. People the world over don't like to be told what to do (it's decidedly not just an American thing) even when it is for their own good. Imagine falling off your bike and breaking a collar bone and no one is available to come get you and no hospital can take you in anyway.
So I just got an email from my dentist where I have to do work that his office is closed until May 4. Is he really opening after that? We are all going to lose our freedoms pretty quick as government imposes all sorts of restrictions on us from where we can go to how we spend and what we do with our assets. And as governments print to support people who need money, it's going to get worse. Problem is money represents productivity. Since no one is working, it represents less. Add additional currency in circulation (inflation), and the prices of everything are going to skyrocket. Our dollar is going to be worth nothing. All the money that is going to be printed is going to wipe out everyone;s cash in value.
Good time to own things, real things: gold, silver, a home, a place to grow things. Even stock but it could take years before it comes back. We already were a trillion in deficit spending this year before this happened. Now, they want to spend trillions more. No one's going to give it to us like the Chinese. They got their own problems and need it for themselves. So we'll print it. Worthless paper like Argentina and Zimbabwe and Germany after WWI. The bubble now is bigger than in 2008. The virus popped it. Never mind a toothache. We're looking at civil unrest. The only hope is that the virus is overblown and it ends quickly. If this spreads out in time, I'm afraid of what might happen.
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Disappointing paper in the New England Journal of Medicine (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001282?query=featured_home). It was a small study, but it suggests that at least two of the current crop of anti-viral agents are of little use against this particular virus.
Jeremy
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Nevertheless, an appropriate description.
Got it. So you're taking the "batshit reporter" perspective. "Gosh President Trump, it's not racist when we order CHINESE FOOD is it???"
I'm taking the perspective if it truly is racist, then the Media are a lot more to blame for branding it this way then Trump. How many weeks were they using "Chinese" or "Wuhan" when describing it. If they feel this is a problem, let me know when they apologize for using it themselves.
Second, I see no issue with using a term in the name that notes the origin country or region, as is the case with MERS or West Nile Virus.
Third, this is China's fault. They covered up the news of this disease for a full month that we know of and told WHO in mid-January that there was no evidence of community transmissions, which we now know they knew this was not the case. The government of China is responsible for this pandemic.
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I'm taking the perspective if it truly is racist, then the Media are a lot more to blame for branding it this way then Trump. How many weeks were they using "Chinese" or "Wuhan" when describing it. If they feel this is a problem, let me know when they apologize for using it themselves.
Second, I see no issue with using a term in the name that notes the origin country or region, as is the case with MERS or West Nile Virus.
OK then.
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About the Italian situation, it's possible that the virus was circulating there before it was even recognized as a serious threat in China. I read a report yesterday in which an Italian epidemiologist said they had several reports of an unusual and intractable pneumonia in the Milan region back as far as November, affecting mostly elderly people. Milan is a big fashion center, with many of the fashions coming out of there fabricated in China. I wonder if the virus was circulating there mostly unseen, or perhaps mistaken for the flu, long before the problem exploded?
This is more than credible. The Economist has just published an article (https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/19/how-long-can-the-novel-coronavirus-survive-on-surfaces-and-in-the-air) referencing a paper in the New England Journal of Medicine . Studies show that Covid-19 can linger in the air for hours and on some materials for days; far longer than previously thought.
Cardboard and plastic are two materials extensively used in the packing, transportation and storage of manufactured goods - paricularly clothing.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/19/how-long-can-the-novel-coronavirus-survive-on-surfaces-and-in-the-air
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49680449932_4a655534a8_z.jpg)
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Are you really so ignorant as to believe this? My granddaughter had this virus. She's 20 and in good health. She was taken to the hospital by ambulance because she was having dificulty breathing. Fortunately it was early in the cycle where she lives, and the hospital was not overwhelmed. Had it been a few weeks later, there's no guarantee at all that she would have survived.
While it's clearly wrong to suggest that it "only" kills the elderly and those with other conditions, anecdote is not data and one case does not refute the general proposition that this is a far, far more dangerous disease in the elderly. See this paper (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf), from the COVID-19 response team at Imperial College, and in particular the table on page 5.
Jeremy
Okay, perhaps only is too strong of a word.
Speaking as someone that went to school for mathematics, and studied statistics, I am use to using some 99%+ threshold as being statistical assured. Meaning that in stats there is almost never a 100% probability, but a probability over 99% is typically considered a certainty.
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So I just got an email from my dentist where I have to do work that his office is closed until May 4. Is he really opening after that?
It depends. He may have to sell his Leica.
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An 'in the moment' observation: the United Kingdom, today, is ahead of where Italy was just three weeks ago. Just three weeks. Look at the Johns Hopkins stats. Kind of highlights the risks and explains the precautionary measures being extolled in both the USA and the European continent.
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Disappointing paper in the New England Journal of Medicine (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001282?query=featured_home). It was a small study, but it suggests that at least two of the current crop of anti-viral agents are of little use against this particular virus.
Jeremy
Unfortunately we are still in the dark and have to work with poor data, anecdotal or small poor quality trials, back in the old days. But it is what it is.
Regarding this particular combo I saw some concerns that it might drive an immune reconstitution syndrome, no idea how real the concerns are.
We have possibly remdesivir and chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine with in vitro activity, possibly favipiravir (with some human data but for the milder cases mostly). There might a possible benefit from adding tocilizumab to remdesivir.
None, except maybe hydroxychloroquine, will be easy to come by and in the end we are just in supportive care mode. For those unfamiliar, supportive care means buying your body time to heal, if he can.
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I dont even know how you can come back from this politically. Their careers are over.
You have far more faith in justice than I. My prediction is that they'll be mumbling about this in the Senate ethics committee for a few weeks, by which time people will be dropping like flies, and nobody will pay attention to the stock purchases made in the distant past.
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Joe,
first paragraph, first sentence: " Speaking to the nation last night, U.S. President Donald Trump said .."
enough of a qualification that nothing should be taken at face value.
Nothing personal, Joe - let's bury a non-existant hatchet.
It does behove us all to be responsible and realise the importance and extent of this health emergency. BTW, the foolhardy aren't limited to the USA. SKY News reporting that inspite of all precautions and advisories by UK gov, we stiil have idiots insisting on frequenting pubs (bars) etc etc. Schools are closed, country close to lockdown but lets keep boozing ...
I'm pretty good with isolating but my wife is getting testy. It won't last. Unless the death rates go up significantly, people are going to go out. What about people who need to eat? Where are they getting money from to eat and pay their rent? How many dollars can the government print before they're totally worthless and China takes over the world? Why are there no more viruses in China. Is it really not that bad? Or do they have a cure? What's really going on?
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This is more than credible. The Economist has just published an article (https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/19/how-long-can-the-novel-coronavirus-survive-on-surfaces-and-in-the-air) referencing a paper in the New England Journal of Medicine . Studies show that Covid-19 can linger in the air for hours and on some materials for days; far longer than previously thought.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/19/how-long-can-the-novel-coronavirus-survive-on-surfaces-and-in-the-air
(https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/824/85/sites/default/files/20200321_WOC833.png)
I think that's where the high transmission comes from, it's not just direct droplet transmission.
It also gives substance to the concerns that it aerosolizes much easier than thought, which leads to the recommended N95 and negative pressure rooms for testing, despite some doubts around here. Problems is those PPEs and negative pressure rooms are hard to come by. If the first responders get infected, many more will get it too.
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Resignation is one thing, prosecution for insider trading may be another. U.S. laws and federal agency regulations regarding insider trading are complex, and I'm certainly no expert on them, but in general to be in violation an investor needs to be acting on "inside information" from a specific company or companies—i.e., from a source with access to company-confidential information. Acting on a government briefing about an external event that could have broad consequences for the economy probably would be insufficient to sustain a prosecution.
There's a specific law that forbids members of congress from trading on information they learn through confidential government sources. It's called the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act. Burr was one of the three or four senators to vote against it.
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This is more than credible. The Economist has just published an article (https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/19/how-long-can-the-novel-coronavirus-survive-on-surfaces-and-in-the-air) referencing a paper in the New England Journal of Medicine . Studies show that Covid-19 can linger in the air for hours and on some materials for days; far longer than previously thought.
Cardboard and plastic for sure are two materials extensively used in the packing, transportation and storage of manufactured goods - paricularly clothing.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/19/how-long-can-the-novel-coronavirus-survive-on-surfaces-and-in-the-air
(https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/824/85/sites/default/files/20200321_WOC833.png)
Based on this I have to decide how to handle the Amazon packages. I sprayed them a little, opened them then sprayed the inside boxes, got rid of outside boxes, wash hands, ...
Maybe I should just open them and leave them somewhere inside the house where nobody will touch them for 3 days or so.
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What about people who need to eat? Where are they getting money from to eat and pay their rent?
We have these plastic things called "credit cards." They're widely accepted.
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It depends. He may have to sell his Leica.
He's a skier. Does ski patrol in his spare time and teaches dentistry at Columbia University to the dental students there. But he did tell me he might consider retiring. I think a lot of people are going to retire now as they realize diminishing returns from staying open and threats to their own health by staying around. A lot of these doctors are older and more susceptible to death just like other elderly people.
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There's a specific law that forbids members of congress from trading on information they learn through confidential government sources. It's called the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act. Burr was one of the three or four senators to vote against it.
It will be hard to prove since the information about the virus was public knowledge. Of course, the optics are terrible.
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Disappointing paper in the New England Journal of Medicine (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001282?query=featured_home). It was a small study, but it suggests that at least two of the current crop of anti-viral agents are of little use against this particular virus.
Jeremy
I have all of the ongoing clinical trials by compound on a spread sheet and am collating the results as they come in. It's still unclear what the best target is for this virus. The HIV drugs were always going to be a long shot though there is an Australian researcher who claims to have had success with the same treatment that failed in China. That was just a newspaper clipping. There are several other anti-virals in trials as well as some biologicals that mediate cytokine storm which appears to cause a number of the fatalities. A joint academic effort here in the US has used some AI approaches with molecular screening and have identified 50 compounds that are now being screened in vitro. Results from that should be available shortly. I have no clue whether hydroxychlorquine or remesdivir will work but there are enough trials going on to quickly come up with an answer. The small molecule approach was always going to be a shot in the dark particularly when drug targets have only recently been identified. this virus appears to interact with over 400 different cellular proteins. It's only my opinion but the one short term project that could really help would be a monoclonal antibody against the virus assuming you can get it to the targeted tissue and the vaccine.
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Based on this I have to decide how to handle the Amazon packages. I sprayed them a little, opened them then sprayed the inside boxes, got rid of outside boxes, wash hands, ...
Maybe I should just open them and leave them somewhere inside the house where nobody will touch them for 3 days or so.
I got a note from Fedex that they won't require signatures any more. I just called my pizza place that has gone to take out service only. You order on the phone and pay with your credit card in advance. You give them your car ID and they look out for you when you pass and deliver curb service to the car's window. Of course, you then have to spray the box. I wonder if the virus is on the crust of the slices? Is the virus dangerous if you eat it?
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You have far more faith in justice than I. My prediction is that they'll be mumbling about this in the Senate ethics committee for a few weeks, by which time people will be dropping like flies, and nobody will pay attention to the stock purchases made in the distant past.
Disappointing, but likely.
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We have these plastic things called "credit cards." They're widely accepted.
Except when they reach a limit. Then what? More debt? Will the government force credit cards companies to extend credit and payments? You watch how things are going to break down if we don;t get back to work and take our chances. Who's going to pay my Social Security and Medicare if no one is working? More government printing? remember, currency is a store of real value based on production of society. If the society isn't producing because no one is working, and you print money to make up the difference, that's inflation. You have all those dollars chasing fewer goods because things are not being produced. That raises prices of everything with more dollars chasing less goods.
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I have all of the ongoing clinical trials by compound on a spread sheet and am collating the results as they come in. It's still unclear what the best target is for this virus. The HIV drugs were always going to be a long shot though there is an Australian researcher who claims to have had success with the same treatment that failed in China. That was just a newspaper clipping. There are several other anti-virals in trials as well as some biologicals that mediate cytokine storm which appears to cause a number of the fatalities. A joint academic effort here in the US has used some AI approaches with molecular screening and have identified 50 compounds that are now being screened in vitro. Results from that should be available shortly. I have no clue whether hydroxychlorquine or remesdivir will work but there are enough trials going on to quickly come up with an answer. The small molecule approach was always going to be a shot in the dark particularly when drug targets have only recently been identified. this virus appears to interact with over 400 different cellular proteins. It's only my opinion but the one short term project that could really help would be a monoclonal antibody against the virus assuming you can get it to the targeted tissue and the vaccine.
Maybe the Chinese have figured out what it is and won't tell us. After all, they seem to have stopped in in their country.
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I'm pretty good with isolating but my wife is getting testy. It won't last. Unless the death rates go up significantly, people are going to go out.
Exactly my point. Things will break regardless of what the government says we can or can not do.
Over time people are going to start weighing out the risks of getting Corona Virus vs. the risks of not have a job nor an income, and eventually the risks of the latter will become greater then the former. When that happens, regardless of what the nay sayers here think, it is going to boil over. Full stop.
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I have all of the ongoing clinical trials by compound on a spread sheet and am collating the results as they come in. It's still unclear what the best target is for this virus. The HIV drugs were always going to be a long shot though there is an Australian researcher who claims to have had success with the same treatment that failed in China. That was just a newspaper clipping. There are several other anti-virals in trials as well as some biologicals that mediate cytokine storm which appears to cause a number of the fatalities. A joint academic effort here in the US has used some AI approaches with molecular screening and have identified 50 compounds that are now being screened in vitro. Results from that should be available shortly. I have no clue whether hydroxychlorquine or remesdivir will work but there are enough trials going on to quickly come up with an answer. The small molecule approach was always going to be a shot in the dark particularly when drug targets have only recently been identified. this virus appears to interact with over 400 different cellular proteins. It's only my opinion but the one short term project that could really help would be a monoclonal antibody against the virus assuming you can get it to the targeted tissue and the vaccine.
Keep us updated.
I suspect it will be many months before we have something in enough quantities.
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I'm taking the perspective if it truly is racist, then the Media are a lot more to blame for branding it this way then Trump. How many weeks were they using "Chinese" or "Wuhan" when describing it. If they feel this is a problem, let me know when they apologize for using it themselves.
Second, I see no issue with using a term in the name that notes the origin country or region, as is the case with MERS or West Nile Virus.
I do see an issue, besides the xenophobic card being played (an outside enemy is more convenient than admitting that one's own initial response was substandard).
The initially named "novel coronavirus" was officially labeled on February 11th, 2020, by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as "COVID-19". The International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) decided to call it "SARS-CoV-2", which is more descriptive for insiders.
There is no valid reason to call it anything else than by its official name, from that moment on.
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I do see an issue, besides the xenophobic card being played (an outside enemy is more convenient than admitting that one's own initial response was substandard).
The initially named "novel coronavirus" was officially labeled on February 11th, 2020, by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as "COVID-19". The International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) decided to call it "SARS-CoV-2", which is more descriptive for insiders.
There is no valid reason to call it anything else than by its official name, from that moment on.
Okay, okay, from now on we must make sure "Chinese" is not used so as not to cast undo blame on the Chinese government.
China's relationship with WHO chief in wake of coronavirus outbreak under the microscope (https://www.foxnews.com/world/coronavirus-china-who-chief-relationship-trouble)
Yep, nothing to see here folks, please move on, we all know China did an amazing job handling this.
The fact is that China is responsible for this pandemic. Instead of being concerned about their people and the world, they were more concerned about the reputation of their single party government and flat out lied about this. Now they are trying to skirt blame more by creating a propaganda campaign against saying any of it was China's fault using racism as the excuse knowing full well the left's stance on up holding multi-culturism, no matter how illogical in this specific case, would catch them hook, line and sinker.
China's communist party is responsible, and they need to be held accountable.
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Italy reported 627 new deaths today. Spain 213, and China only 3.
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China's communist party is responsible, and they need to be held accountable.
You might be right or not.
But if your president believes that, he should be saying
"In the name of my country, I held you, Chinese, reponsible and accountable for what is happening.
FOR THIS, THIS AND THIS VERY REASONS. "
Klartext, as the Germans say.
But he's not doing that, he's just suggesting. Being "smart". Sowing doubt instead of giving confidence-
Fine leader...
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Okay, okay, from now on we must make sure "Chinese" is not used so as not to cast undo blame on the Chinese government.
China's relationship with WHO chief in wake of coronavirus outbreak under the microscope (https://www.foxnews.com/world/coronavirus-china-who-chief-relationship-trouble)
Yep, nothing to see here folks, please move on, we all know China did an amazing job handling this.
The fact is that China is responsible for this pandemic. Instead of being concerned about their people and the world, they were more concerned about the reputation of their single party government and flat out lied about this. Now they are trying to skirt blame more by creating a propaganda campaign against saying any of it was China's fault using racism as the excuse knowing full well the left's stance on up holding multi-culturism, no matter how illogical in this specific case, would catch them hook, line and sinker.
China's communist party is responsible, and they need to be held accountable.
Check the picture here (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-51771355). Maybe you might "feel" some sympathy and understand why people aren't being unknowing tools of the Chinese government when they complain about this, but rather are concerned about the impact racial fear has on actual people.
Describing the attack, Mr Mok said the man who kicked him "was really angry".
"He shouted 'I don't want your coronavirus in my country'," Mr Mok told the BBC.
A second male threw a punch, causing Mr Mok's nose to bleed badly.
Mr Mok told the BBC he may need an operation on a broken bone near his right eye.
Damn, dude. Come on.
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Check the picture here (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-51771355). Maybe you might "feel" some sympathy and understand why people aren't being unknowing tools of the Chinese government when they complain about this, but rather are concerned about the impact racial fear has on actual people.
Damn, dude. Come on.
I don't give Trump any blame for that just like I don't giver Bernie Sanders any blame for one of his followers shooting at republican lawmakers during a softball game.
There are crazy and/or immature people in this world that will look for whatever excuse to do wrong.
And just out of curiosity, is Trump now at fault for all offenses both inside and outside the country? That happened in London.
PS, in your article, it says the guy only shouted "coronavirus;" he did not use the word "Chinese" according to accounts. So this is another reason I fail to see how this story connects to Trump.
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Wonder who should take the blame for American created inventions like Coke / Pepsi, McDonalds, Burger King, Dunkin Donuts etc... which contribute to millions of deaths every year for decades.
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You might be right or not.
But if your president believes that, he should be saying
"In the name of my country, I held you, Chinese, reponsible and accountable for what is happening.
FOR THIS, THIS AND THIS VERY REASONS. "
Klartext, as the Germans say.
But he's not doing that, he's just suggesting. Being "smart". Sowing doubt instead of giving confidence-
Fine leader...
It's all about branding, which is what he is doing now. We are too dependent on drug components coming out of China right now to piss them off so much so they close the door. Unfortunately they do have us, and the rest of the world, by the balls here.
I fully hope that after we get out of this, they will be held accountable for this and directly blamed.
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Wonder who should take the blame for American created inventions like Coke / Pepsi, McDonalds, Burger King, Dunkin Donuts etc... which contribute to millions of deaths every year for decades.
Do you want to ban fast food? No one is forcing you to eat it.
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Slobodan has gone very quiet. He and I might not agree on much but I hope all is well and that he is recovering from whatever bug he has.
I fear this is going to happen more and more, contributors going quiet and the not knowing...
Noticed too; fingers crossed all is okay, but it could also be communication problems. I had a battle with Google Chrome yesterday, and could not open Google through it and only managed to do that by using another server I have on the computer. But no problem on the iPad at the same period.
All normal today, except the bank: my local branch was closed, and a notice informed me I had to to the branch in the next town. When I got there, the door was locked and two people were toiling inside. Through the glass, one told me that to get my money, I had to use the cash machine, which I never do. So, to the machine I went, only to discover the bastards want almost 8% off me for the privilege! What could I do?
The next problem will be putting money in: can't use a cash dispenser backwards, as far as I can tell. As I do it by lodging a cheque.... Anyway, nice to see that the banks will get richer because of this crisis.
Rob
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I hope you're right, but as a cynical pessimist when it comes to white collar crime, I fear you're being optimistic.
And if the worst that happens to them is that their political careers are over, my cynical response would be, "Hey, I'd take that." They have the cash, they will probably retain their elected office pension, and some corporation or lobbying organization will hire them because that's exactly the kind of person they want in their organization.
I sincerely hope that I am so stupidly wrong.
Unfortunately, that's what makes politics function and business run sweetly and fortunes amassed. Why else would fat cats take to political life - in the UK, at least, it's not the regular pay packet for that job that pulls the rich: it's the opportunities.
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It depends. He may have to sell his Leica.
Good one!
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The Economist has just published an article referencing a paper in the New England Journal of Medicine . Studies show that Covid-19 can linger in the air for hours and on some materials for days; far longer than previously thought.
Cardboard and plastic are two materials extensively used in the packing, transportation and storage of manufactured goods - paricularly clothing.
This means that the Amazon Prime shipping service is far more dangerous when it comes to the Covid-19 transmission than their Standard shipping method.
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... We are too dependent on drug components coming out of China right now to piss them off so much so they close the door. Unfortunately they do have us, and the rest of the world, by the balls here.
Whose fault is that. This is not a confrontation, it's an honest question. Why do we let situations like this happen? So someone saved a few bucks by relocating a factory, bully for them.
Why was there one factory in Puerto Rico that made 95% of the world's IV bags? Why did the world put itself into that position?
Calculating the savings due to economies of scale are one thing, but what does that cost? The calculations never seem to be complete, someone always leaves something out. People are shocked when, suddenly, externalities matter, as if it's the first time.
Is it sensible to let private interests solely decide matters of national importance? Optimize your business, sure, but what if your optimization puts lots of people at risk? By the time you find out what you've lost, it's too late, and the guy who made the decision cashed his bonus cheque and has moved on.
I fully hope that after we get out of this, they will be held accountable for this and directly blamed.
I hope so too but what form would that take. Were the people who fed meat to herbivores years ago held accountable for Mad Cow? If we let the cows eat grass, someone makes less money or steaks cost more. So are we still feeding meat to herbivores today? Last I heard (maybe 5 years ago) we still were, only now we have stricter rules about which animal parts are used to make the feed. I hope they're abiding by those rules. Who is watching to make sure.
We keep hearing about pressures from industry to let it police itself, get the government out of regulation, by starving government of tax funds if we need to. I hope those are good decisions. What could go wrong. Who will be held accountable if/when something does go wrong?
So far as I know we're still pumping hormones and anti-biotics into hogs and milk cows and chickens. Is that really a good idea.
I hope that chronic wasting disease that deer are getting in the north-east doesn't jump to other species. It may already be in moose though.
Everyone wants the Chinese government to come up with new market stall and wild animal rules and enforce them. Makes sense. How would other countries feel if the Chinese demanded that we alter how we run our countries? All I'm saying is that there may be some things we want them to do, so we'd better find a way to convince them, a way that actually works. Because so far nothing is working. Pathogens keep coming out of there, their own people suffer from them, but that doesn't seem like enough incentive to make them change things.
This is not promising for the human species. This is highly off-topic, I guess.
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I do see an issue, besides the xenophobic card being played (an outside enemy is more convenient than admitting that one's own initial response was substandard).
The initially named "novel coronavirus" was officially labeled on February 11th, 2020, by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as "COVID-19". The International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) decided to call it "SARS-CoV-2", which is more descriptive for insiders.
There is no valid reason to call it anything else than by its official name, from that moment on.
Influenza every year is called the Asian flu because it starts there. Spanish FLu. I don't agree its racist. Just more silly stuff from the left and Trump haters.
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Italy reported 627 new deaths today. Spain 213, and China only 3.
Well, China probably has the vaccine.
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Based on the data from the last few days, it looks like the daily global increases (both the infection and death counts) are roughly 10-12% of the total numbers.
26,000 infections and 1,271 deaths compared to 271,598 total infections and 11,299 deaths. In other words, the total numbers double every 8 days globally (in some countries they double every 2-5 days).
Using the 8 days doubling model, we can expect around 600,000 total infections and 25,000 deaths by end of March.
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This means that the Amazon Prime shipping service is far more dangerous when it comes to the Covid-19 transmission than their Standard shipping method.
The Black Plague was transmitted town to town, city to city, nation to nation by rats. Now we have Amazon and Fedex doing it.
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Based on the data from the last few days, it looks like the daily global increases (both the infection and death counts) are roughly 10-12% of the total numbers.
26,000 infections and 1,271 deaths compared to 271,598 total infections and 11,299 deaths. In other words, the total numbers double every 8 days globally (in some countries they double every 2-5 days).
Using the 8 days doubling model, we can expect around 600,000 total infections and 25,000 deaths by end of March.
So by the end of April, that should be around 500,000 dead if it stops then which is about the same as regular flu last year. Of course, will it stop? It stopped in China, or so we're being told.
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European Central Bank (ECB) follows America down the rat hole buying $750 billion in bonds to prop up Europe as the US starts with a trillion. Nikon $1000 cameras will go to $2000. Of course, you'll have to decide if you want that camera first or a loaf of bread. The bubble gentlemen is about to break again. The 2008 real estate bubble was nothing. This one is the big one. Real estate, stocks,, everything. Lots of cash but no one working for it. The government will provide it. This is insanity.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/business/EU-European-Central-Bank-economy-covid.html
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So by the end of April, that should be around 500,000 dead if it stops then which is about the same as regular flu last year. Of course, will it stop? It stopped in China, or so we're being told.
500,000 Covid-19 deaths in first 4 months compared with 500,000 flu deaths for the entire 2019/2019 season.
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This means that the Amazon Prime shipping service is far more dangerous when it comes to the Covid-19 transmission than their Standard shipping method.
Standard practice until now was to quarantine ALL deliveries outside for at least 24 hours. Thinking of extending this and debating how to handle both supermarket and cooked food deliveries. Pizza was always a no-no, now an even bigger one.
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500,000 Covid-19 deaths in first 4 months compared with 500,000 flu deaths for the entire 2019/2019 season. Or 2 million Covid-19 deaths in 2020.
Well I'm only using that for comparison. In any case, the regular flu season doesn;t last 12 months. My point is will it be worse than the regular flu? I don't know? If not, why are we shutting down the world? Meanwhile I'm cooped up and me and my wife are getting awful testy with one another. And it's only been a few days.
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Standard practice until now was to quarantine ALL deliveries outside for at least 24 hours. Thinking of extending this and debating how to handle both supermarket and cooked food deliveries. Pizza was always a no-no, now an even bigger one.
Why is pizza a no-no. I'm getting ready to order some.
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500,000 Covid-19 deaths in first 4 months compared with 500,000 flu deaths for the entire 2019/2019 season.
Not to mention deaths not directly attributed to Covid-19 but are heavily influenced by the virus due to the over strain on the medical system causing patients requiring ER or ICU care not getting it.
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Out-of-work Canadians filed 500,000 applications for employment insurance and financial assistance this week alone, up from 27,000 the same week last year.
https://thelogic.co/news/covid-19-roundup-the-jobless-tally-mounts/
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Well I'm only using that for comparison. In any case, the regular flu season doesn;t last 12 months. My point is will it be worse than the regular flu? I don't know? If not, why are we shutting down the world? Meanwhile I'm cooped up and me and my wife are getting awful testy with one another. And it's only been a few days.
Sitting alone in a warm place is the least of the problems. (although being cooped up with someone else could be entirely different matter).
BTW, my previous estimate about 2 million deaths in 2020 was wrong and I removed it from my post. The correct calculation based on existing model would be much worse, actually so alarming, that I didn't dare to post it. We really don't know now how it will develop. In two months, we'll be able to see it better. Two months ago, nobody would have predicted the 271,000 infections and 11,000 deaths.
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Not to mention deaths not directly attributed to Covid-19 but are heavily influenced by the virus due to the over strain on the medical system causing patients requiring ER or ICU care not getting it.
Valid point.
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Well I'm only using that for comparison. In any case, the regular flu season doesn;t last 12 months. My point is will it be worse than the regular flu? I don't know? If not, why are we shutting down the world? Meanwhile I'm cooped up and me and my wife are getting awful testy with one another. And it's only been a few days.
Because these deaths are on top of the regular flu deaths...thus basically bringing our medical facilities to it's knees.
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Sitting alone in a warm place is the least of the problems. (although being cooped up with someone else could be entirely different matter).
BTW, my previous estimate about 2 million deaths in 2020 was wrong and I removed it from my post. The correct calculation based on existing model would be much worse, actually so alarming, that I didn't dare to post it. We really don't know now how it will develop. In two months, we'll be able to see it better. Two months ago, nobody would have predicted the 271,000 infections and 11,000 deaths.
Why were the only three deaths in China today? They only had a few thousand dead to date. What's going on?
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Anyone remember the Manchurian Candidate movie from the 1950's?
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Why were the only three deaths in China today? They only had a few thousand dead to date. What's going on?
Those stats are very suspicious. Maybe they re-categorized the stats.
But as chez points out, there will be many other indirect fatalities, caused by the overload of the hospitals. Of course, totally omitted from the official stats.
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Those stats are very suspicious. Maybe they re-categorized the stats.
But as chez points out, there will be many other indirect fatalities, caused by the overload of the hospitals. Of course, totally omitted from the official stats.
Les, you're side stepping my point. China a country of 1.4 billion people stopped the virus after only a few thousand dead. Did it burn out? Or, did they have a vaccine? Or what? Considering the whole world is shutting down outside of CHina (and apparently South Korea), aren't you curious about the details? EVeryday, in America at least, each governor of every state is upping the ante of what's being shut down. The press is playing this to the hilt. Are we shooting ourselves in the foot?
I'm not saying there's no danger. It's just that the problem seems to be gone where it hit first with relatively minimum damage. Why? This is important before we destroy our economies? If Canada lost 500,000 jobs, imagine what larger America has lost and in the rest of Europe and elsewhere. What damage is that causing? How many people won't have food to eat soon? Are we missing the forest through the trees?
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This means that the Amazon Prime shipping service is far more dangerous when it comes to the Covid-19 transmission than their Standard shipping method.
Not anymore, most of the Prime takes more than 48h now anyway. Plus, if the driver is infected and coughs on your package all the math gets reset.
Outside or indoor quarantine for 48h+ it's probably a safer option.
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What about if the mailman coughs on your mail? He's got dirty fingers that open the mailbox. Hopefully most of the mail is sent by automated machines.
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Standard practice until now was to quarantine ALL deliveries outside for at least 24 hours. Thinking of extending this and debating how to handle both supermarket and cooked food deliveries. Pizza was always a no-no, now an even bigger one.
I'm debating what would be the best way to go about this without becoming a total paranoid and I don't have an answer yet.
Today my wife did buy some groceries and we washed all the fruits/veggies and gave a rinse to all the packages before bringing them inside and/or the fridge.
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Just read that there’s a report of a surge of “pneumonia” in Russia. They are not calling it COVID-19, so I guess that’s one way to do it. Russia tends to these draconian measures, just let the virus ravage the society and keep it business as usual.
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Les, you're side stepping my point. China a country of 1.4 billion people stopped the virus after only a few thousand dead. Did it burn out? Or, did they have a vaccine? Or what? Considering the whole world is shutting down outside of CHina (and apparently South Korea), aren't you curious about the details? EVeryday, in America at least, each governor of every state is upping the ante of what's being shut down. The press is playing this to the hilt. Are we shooting ourselves in the foot?
I'm not saying there's no danger. It's just that the problem seems to be gone where it hit first with relatively minimum damage. Why? This is important before we destroy our economies? If Canada lost 500,000 jobs, imagine what larger America has lost and in the rest of Europe and elsewhere. What damage is that causing? How many people won't have food to eat soon? Are we missing the forest through the trees?
Alan, yes, I am curious about the details, but I don't have answers to all these questions. I hope that soon more information will surface.
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Tinfoil hats anyone?
Just saw an interview with the good Dr Fauci who said he was not ever sure if by Easter we could get back to normal.
That is unsustainable, and like Alan said, unless there is a drastic up tick in death toll, not something people will put up with.
Unless I hear a realistic plan by Tuesday or Wednesday, as a libertarian, I cant see the negatived of the economy tanking being outweighed by the positives of what ever we are ad hocking.
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I'm debating what would be the best way to go about this without becoming a total paranoid and I don't have an answer yet.
Today my wife did buy some groceries and we washed all the fruits/veggies and gave a rinse to all the packages before bringing them inside and/or the fridge.
Everything goes on a table in the laundry room just inside the garage
I’ve been wiping down the outside boxes with Clorox wipes. Then I open and toss the box. I wipe the boxes or packages inside with wipes, open and toss the packages. Then I wipe down the product. Finall I wash hands and face, clean the table and all,surfaces touched bringing the packages into the house. I remove my clothes and put them in the washer. Then I shower.
Crazy...but I had to get prescriptions today ( had to clean the car too), got some things at the grocery ( not that there was much to buy) and got the mail and a Amazon. Everything followed the above method. It’s a lot of work.
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Alan, yes, I am curious about the details, but I don't have answers to all these questions. I hope that soon more information will surface.
Some reports say they locked up entire apartment buildings and let nothing, no one in or out. Either you died or got better. I don’t know if it’s true, but something tells me this would be frowned upon in the western world.
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Tinfoil hats anyone?
Just saw an interview with the good Dr Fauci who said he was not ever sure if by Easter we could get back to normal.
That is unsustainable, and like Alan said, unless there is a drastic up tick in death toll, not something people will put up with.
Unless I hear a realistic plan by Tuesday or Wednesday, as a libertarian, I cant see the negatived of the economy taking being outweighed by the positives of what ever we are ad hocking.
I may not be up to you. And most likely you won’t have a say. If businesses are closed, and it is enforced you will have little choice but to comply.
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Upstanding citizens at work
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/spring-break-party-coronavirus-pandemic-miami-beaches/
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I may not be up to you. And most likely you won’t have a say. If businesses are closed, and it is enforced you will have little choice but to comply.
What have we learned in a week's time?
We don't know the death rate and the range is rather large.
No one can give an accurate prediction on how many will die. I read today from different scientists that regardless of what we do it could be as little as 10,000 or as much as 2,500,000 in the USA, which is a pretty big range.
China claims to have surprised it, but since they lied about so much already, can they really be trusted.
We don't know if self-isolation will actually end it, or just delay the inevitable. There is a very real possibility that as soon as we come out, we will just start infecting each other again.
We don't know if a second waive will come or even if you can be infected again after already having it.
I have not seen any realistic plan to increase ICU beds, nor have there been any reports on this happening. So, even if we can flatten this curve best case scenario, we still are going to have one really big mess on our hands with near the same amount of loss of life.
We have no clear end game and no one in government seems to be thinking about it. Or if they are, they sure are not telling us.
So what do we know? Neither Trump nor any governor has any clue to exactly what is going to happen nor how to handle it. I mean are you actually feeling confident in our leaders' response, especially all of the govenors'? I know I'm not. The economy is being totally destroyed, which will lead to an increase in suicides, drug addiction and related deaths, divorce and family break ups, evictions and foreclosures, prostitution and sex trafficking, and a complete and total depression if we continue down this path that will fundamentally change the country. And it may be all for naught anyway. I might also add much of this people will not recover from.
Like I said, I have no aspirations to sit back and watch the world go to hell by our own making. Unless some serious plan comes out or the death rate skyrockets, dont expect many to keep to this.
Insofar as what is up to me or not, I by myself certainly cant change this. But when half of the country changes their minds, it will no longer be up to the government either.
There is no real plan, and in very short order, no one is going to have any confidence anymore in our elected officials without one. Then it all falls apart.
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Interesting interview with someone who predicted a lot of this, https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist (https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist).
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Upstanding citizens at work
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/spring-break-party-coronavirus-pandemic-miami-beaches/
All those bio-hazards vectoring back to family and friends after the party, it's hard to know what to say. People do stupid things all the time, others often pay the price.
It's not as if the country's leadership provided much guidance.
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I read that 2 1/2 million Americans will be applying for unemployment insurance benefits in MArch and APril just for what's happened. If this thing isn't stopped, who knows what it could go too? Fortunately I'm retired and so is my wife. WHo knows though if government pensions are that protected? But for those working, how are you going to handle paying for things if this thing goes on for awhile? I also expect inflation to hit big time as the government floods the country with printed money.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/the-upcoming-job-losses-will-be-unlike-anything-the-us-has-ever-seen.html
It's so bad that the US Labor Department is forbidding the states to release the actual unemployment filing numbers until the Feds do to prevent more panic in the financial markets. We're not going to see 3 1/2% unemployment numbers again for a long time.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fearing-market-impact-trump-administration-asks-states-postpone/story?id=69710991
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What have we learned in a week's time?
We don't know the death rate and the range is rather large.
No one can give an accurate prediction on how many will die. I read today from different scientists that regardless of what we do it could be as little as 10,000 or as much as 2,500,000 in the USA, which is a pretty big range.
China claims to have surprised it, but since they lied about so much already, can they really be trusted.
We don't know if self-isolation will actually end it, or just delay the inevitable. There is a very real possibility that as soon as we come out, we will just start infecting each other again.
We don't know if a second waive will come or even if you can be infected again after already having it.
I have not seen any realistic plan to increase ICU beds, nor have there been any reports on this happening. So, even if we can flatten this curve best case scenario, we still are going to have one really big mess on our hands with near the same amount of loss of life.
We have no clear end game and no one in government seems to be thinking about it. Or if they are, they sure are not telling us.
So what do we know? Neither Trump nor any governor has any clue to exactly what is going to happen nor how to handle it. I mean are you actually feeling confident in our leaders' response, especially all of the govenors'? I know I'm not. The economy is being totally destroyed, which will lead to an increase in suicides, drug addiction and related deaths, divorce and family break ups, evictions and foreclosures, prostitution and sex trafficking, and a complete and total depression if we continue down this path that will fundamentally change the country. And it may be all for naught anyway. I might also add much of this people will not recover from.
Like I said, I have no aspirations to sit back and watch the world go to hell by our own making. Unless some serious plan comes out or the death rate skyrockets, dont expect many to keep to this.
Insofar as what is up to me or not, I by myself certainly cant change this. But when half of the country changes their minds, it will no longer be up to the government either.
There is no real plan, and in very short order, no one is going to have any confidence anymore in our elected officials without one. Then it all falls apart.
No one knows how this plays out, thats the reality. To suggest there can a real plan that fits your needs, based on the unknown is silly.
Your aspirations really mean nothing at this point. I think you are gonna go with the flow regardless, like it or not. I suspect a lot more people have a desire to be part of the better good than those interested in rebellion .
But time will tell. I have a lot of faith that good people will do what’s right even if it’s painful. It’s not a time for selfishness. Ymmv.
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Slobodan has gone very quiet. He and I might not agree on much but I hope all is well and that he is recovering from whatever bug he has.
I fear this is going to happen more and more, contributors going quiet and the not knowing...
Thanks, Keith, appreciate the concern. I am in the 11th day of persistent dry cough, very exhausting. I try to save energy by sleeping most of the time.
My symptoms are not apparently serious enough to warrant testing. Some of my friends are not that lucky. A violinist in the band that was playing on March 7, where we got the bug, is hospitalized with pneumonia and corona positive. Some of you might remember a few pics of him I posted. A healthy guy, late 20s, early 30s, non smoker, non drinker.
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Good to hear from you, Slobodan. Wishing you a soon recovery.
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Thanks, Keith, appreciate the concern. I am in the 11th day of persistent dry cough, very exhausting. I try to save energy by sleeping most of the time.
My symptoms are not apparently serious enough to warrant testing. Some of my friends are not that lucky. A violinist in the band that was playing on March 7, where we got the bug, is hospitalized with pneumonia and corona positive. Some of you might remember a few pics of him I posted. A healthy guy, late 20s, early 30s, non smoker, non drinker.
Wishing you well, Slobodan.
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Les, you're side stepping my point. China a country of 1.4 billion people stopped the virus after only a few thousand dead. Did it burn out? Or, did they have a vaccine? Or what? Considering the whole world is shutting down outside of CHina (and apparently South Korea), aren't you curious about the details? EVeryday, in America at least, each governor of every state is upping the ante of what's being shut down. The press is playing this to the hilt. Are we shooting ourselves in the foot?
I'm not saying there's no danger. It's just that the problem seems to be gone where it hit first with relatively minimum damage. Why? This is important before we destroy our economies? If Canada lost 500,000 jobs, imagine what larger America has lost and in the rest of Europe and elsewhere. What damage is that causing? How many people won't have food to eat soon? Are we missing the forest through the trees?
The epidemics curve behaves like that. China was the first to be hit, it is the first to get out of it. Europe is now approaching peak epidemics (which in the risisng phase it's an exponential curve). In Portugal cases are doubling every 2 or 3 days. No need for speculations and conspiracy theories.
China has a delegation in Italy, trying to help. Spain is following suit. They did not pay heed to China's doctors warnings they should have closed down sooner.
There are many scientific papers published, we should listen to the science, not politics.
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Tinfoil hats anyone?
Just saw an interview with the good Dr Fauci who said he was not ever sure if by Easter we could get back to normal.
That is unsustainable, and like Alan said, unless there is a drastic up tick in death toll, not something people will put up with.
Unless I hear a realistic plan by Tuesday or Wednesday, as a libertarian, I cant see the negatived of the economy tanking being outweighed by the positives of what ever we are ad hocking.
If containemnt measures are not enforced in due time, it is not a matter of "if" wrt death toll. The epidemics follows an exponential rise until it reaches the peak. Number of deaths depends on population age and pre-existing health conditions. And on how well timely social distancing measures and quarantine are put in place. Spain and Italy were too late, see where they are now.
In America, I am afraid the USA and Brasil will be seriosly hit by this health crisis.
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In America, I am afraid the USA and Brasil will be seriosly hit by this health crisis.
And Mexico, I am told.
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Well I'm only using that for comparison. In any case, the regular flu season doesn;t last 12 months. My point is will it be worse than the regular flu? I don't know? If not, why are we shutting down the world? Meanwhile I'm cooped up and me and my wife are getting awful testy with one another. And it's only been a few days.
Alan, please send Mrs Klein my sincere greetings, sympathies and admiration, I can only imagine what it's like.... I'm 6000 miles and your'e driving me nuts!! ;D ;D ;D
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Tinfoil hats anyone?
Just saw an interview with the good Dr Fauci who said he was not ever sure if by Easter we could get back to normal.
That is unsustainable, and like Alan said, unless there is a drastic up tick in death toll, not something people will put up with.
I think you boys need to get real.
Just to keep a perspective :
The first death in Italy occurred on the 22-February
8-March forced quarantine for Lombardy.
9-March lockdown orders extended to the whole of Italy.
As of yesterday, 20-March, (less than one month since the first death)
47,021 cases
4,032 deaths
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SKYNews (UK) covering the crisis as well, if not better, than anyone.
News, live feed, is broadcast via YouTube
https://youtu.be/9Auq9mYxFEE
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The shocking centre of the COVID-19 crisis
SKYNews 5minute documentary
https://youtu.be/_J60fQr0GWo
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For those who will inevitable flaunt the "stay and spray at home" edicts, martial law may eventually resolve their mental problems once and for ever. Bang!
I think that the worst will be experienced not in rich countries where stupidity will be the main cause of spread, but in the impoverished third world where options and hygiene do not exist.
Now we get an inkling of how the more intelligent dinosaurs felt.
;-(
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A couple more long complex but good reads on the entire subject of spread, etc.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca (https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca)
and
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 (https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56).
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For those who will inevitable flaunt the "stay and spray at home" edicts, martial law may eventually resolve their mental problems once and for ever. Bang!
I think that the worst will be experienced not in rich countries where stupidity will be the main cause of spread, but in the impoverished third world where options and hygiene do not exist.
Now we get an inkling of how the more intelligent dinosaurs felt.
;-(
Quite right if by that you mean number of deaths. We will be worse hit than a first world country. But phycologicaly I don’t think so. If there is no health care in normal times people won’t freak out when the nonexistent care facilities collapse. People that have lived through wars and Ebola are not going to lose any sleep over this. In fact a lot of people live under such poor conditions that this is not going to make any noticeable difference.
I remember several years ago a major first world city had a massive power outage and there was panic and looting. We have power outages almost daily at times each time lasting for or more hours, some places have no electricity at all. So when the nonexistent power we never had doesn’t work we don’t notice.
Rough but there you have it. What first world countries worry might happen is how many people live and have always lived. No panic when it continues.
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I read that 2 1/2 million Americans will be applying for unemployment insurance benefits in MArch and APril just for what's happened. If this thing isn't stopped, who knows what it could go too? Fortunately I'm retired and so is my wife. WHo knows though if government pensions are that protected? But for those working, how are you going to handle paying for things if this thing goes on for awhile? I also expect inflation to hit big time as the government floods the country with printed money.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/the-upcoming-job-losses-will-be-unlike-anything-the-us-has-ever-seen.html
It's so bad that the US Labor Department is forbidding the states to release the actual unemployment filing numbers until the Feds do to prevent more panic in the financial markets. We're not going to see 3 1/2% unemployment numbers again for a long time.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fearing-market-impact-trump-administration-asks-states-postpone/story?id=69710991
You keep bringing up economic costs. Fair enough, they are real enough and need to be kept in mind. But if no measures were taken and the virus made billions sick at the same time, resulting in millions directly dead with much collateral death, that would also have a major economic impact. I'm just saying that we shouldn't pretend that it's one OR the other.
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No one knows how this plays out, thats the reality. To suggest there can a real plan that fits your needs, based on the unknown is silly.
Your aspirations really mean nothing at this point. I think you are gonna go with the flow regardless, like it or not. I suspect a lot more people have a desire to be part of the better good than those interested in rebellion .
But time will tell. I have a lot of faith that good people will do what’s right even if it’s painful. It’s not a time for selfishness. Ymmv.
I dont, not at the expense of their lives. Eventually not working will entail greater risks than the virus for many, especially given who this virus is mainly killing. That without a real plan is not a great recipe for confidence.
Gov. Wolf delays enforcement of order closing 'non-life-sustaining' businesses amid COVID-19 (https://6abc.com/health/gov-wolf-delays-enforcement-of-order-closing-businesses-|-full-list/6031024/)
My neighbor, who is a dentist, thought it would be good to plan out some projects this weekend and went to a garden center. It was open when it was suppose to be closed and he was not even aware it was suppose to be. Our governor is delaying the enforcement because stores are remaining open. Until this hits hard, I dont see how you can enforce this.
I want to see a military like operation in increase ICU beds; without it I just dont think much of this will matter. The only story I have seen that relates to this is NJ trying to reopen a hospital that closed down last year, and already is working with the CORP on another. This is what we need, and it is stories like this we need to talk about to instill confidence.
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Good to hear from you, Slobodan. Wishing you a soon recovery.
Same.
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For those who will inevitable flaunt the "stay and spray at home" edicts, martial law may eventually resolve their mental problems once and for ever. Bang!
I think that the worst will be experienced not in rich countries where stupidity will be the main cause of spread, but in the impoverished third world where options and hygiene do not exist.
Now we get an inkling of how the more intelligent dinosaurs felt.
;-(
Rob, I must say that I have been very impressed by our government's response: on Sunday, our President made a very calm and measured declaration of "National Disaster", our Health Minister is giving informative daily briefings. South Africa has a pretty good medical infrastructure in place for treating HIV and TB in terms of tracing the illnesses so we don't have to re-invent the wheel as far as that is concerned.
The vast majority of our 250 cases have been "imported" and, so far, local spread was 19 as of yesterday. Flights from other countries have been restricted, many points of border entry have been closed, restrictions on gatherings, pubs, sports etc. have been implemented. As of yesterday South Africa was testing at a higher rate per million than the US.
Our biggest problem, I think, will be financial. For ten years we suffered under severe corruption and grand theft which has left our coffers near empty - we can't send folk cheques.
It appears that most of our citizens are aware of the impending crisis and we realise that the worst is yet to come.
Having said all that, it is still early days.
My feeling is that everyone, everywhere is thinking about three weeks behind. By that I mean we should be doing now what we will be doing in three week's time....
I live in a small village about an hour outside of Cape Town which sees quite a lot of tourists and we took the decision to close our gallery from this morning.
We are expecting our first grand-child in a week or two and want to make sure we are as safe as possible!
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Congratulation, William. Grandkids are wonderful. So are great-grands, but you have to wait a while for those to come on the scene.
Stay safe.
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Congratulation, William. Grandkids are wonderful. So are great-grands, but you have to wait a while for those to come on the scene.
Stay safe.
Thanks Russ! I have been thinking of you in Florida and hope that you are staying safe!
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Let's do a thought experiment. Let's imagine that for the most part businesses in PA follow the rules, with the exceptions, at first. What happens when stores that are exempt start selling product they do not normally carry and that other locations do that had to close?
For instance, hardware stores can remain open. Now every hardware store I have been to is rather large with lots of storage and display space, so it would be easy for them to add more merchandise. What if they suddenly start selling office supply, a category not allowed to remain open? It's not a stretch. Eventually we will need paper and envelopes; someone is going to have to fill that need. What if they start selling furniture? Also not a stretch; hardware already supplies many other home goods. Sporting goods? Many-d-it-yourselfers are sports fans; it would be a good way help take care of your customers to provide additional products they enjoy but cant get elsewhere currently.
What happens when those other businesses start seeing stores allowed to remain open start selling the merchandise they normally sell?
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What have we learned in a week's time?
We don't know the death rate and the range is rather large.
No one can give an accurate prediction on how many will die. I read today from different scientists that regardless of what we do it could be as little as 10,000 or as much as 2,500,000 in the USA, which is a pretty big range.
This is not what I’ve been reading. Yes, There has been a wide range of total death predictions, but I haven’t read any source that says what we do doesn’t matter. The majority of sources I see are writing that moderate social distancing will be moderately helpful in reducing both the rate of the spread and total infections, and that extreme distancing will be more effective.
China claims to have surprised it, but since they lied about so much already, can they really be trusted.
We don't know if self-isolation will actually end it, or just delay the inevitable. There is a very real possibility that as soon as we come out, we will just start infecting each other again.
We don't know if a second waive will come or even if you can be infected again after already having it.
There are other possibilities besides “end it” and “delay the inevitable,” neither of which seems like the likely result. Every article I’ve read from a scientific source has suggested that reducing the rate of spread (through social distancing) also reduces the total number of infections. Of immediate benefit is that it will reduce the demand pressure on the available medical care so that a greater percentage of victims will be able to get the care they need. Longer term, it will give time for treatments to be tested and manufacturing scaled, and for a vaccine to be developed. With conflicting voices in the air, I choose to trust those with epidemiological cred, and those voices all seem to be saying that social isolation is the best tool we have until treatments have been developed.
We should assume that there will be a second wave. But if we have been successful in developing therapies during this first wave, the second should have less-severe consequences.
I have not seen any realistic plan to increase ICU beds, nor have there been any reports on this happening. So, even if we can flatten this curve best case scenario, we still are going to have one really big mess on our hands with near the same amount of loss of life.
I’ve seen reports of hospital ships being dispatched to hot cities, and of university dormitories being offered up for hospital use. Neither of these provide ICU beds, but they do provide ways to relieve some of the pressure in hospitals by removing other patients with less-severe disease. That said, this ad-hoc approach is nowhere near sufficient, and the power to ramp up production and distribution of ventilators, etc rests with the POTUS, who seems unwilling to use it.
We have no clear end game and no one in government seems to be thinking about it. Or if they are, they sure are not telling us.
So what do we know? Neither Trump nor any governor has any clue to exactly what is going to happen nor how to handle it. I mean are you actually feeling confident in our leaders' response, especially all of the govenors'? I know I'm not. The economy is being totally destroyed, which will lead to an increase in suicides, drug addiction and related deaths, divorce and family break ups, evictions and foreclosures, prostitution and sex trafficking, and a complete and total depression if we continue down this path that will fundamentally change the country. And it may be all for naught anyway. I might also add much of this people will not recover from.
Like I said, I have no aspirations to sit back and watch the world go to hell by our own making. Unless some serious plan comes out or the death rate skyrockets, dont expect many to keep to this.
Insofar as what is up to me or not, I by myself certainly cant change this. But when half of the country changes their minds, it will no longer be up to the government either.
It seems to me irrational to keep asking for an ”end game” at this stage. It’s like asking for an end game in a war—you know the end game is to defeat the enemy, but you can’t know how long it will take to do that, or what the cost will be. But without total commitment to defeating the enemy, you are bound to lose the war.
There will be economic disruption in any case.
If we enforce “shelter in place” for two months, and it slows the infection curve, there will be much economic hardship.
If we do nothing, and our hospitals are overwhelmed and the virus kills by the thousands, people will shut themselves off, demand will tank, and there will be much economic hardship.
If millions of people die, demand will tank and there will be much economic hardship.
Given that economic pain is unavoidable, it seems to me that the logical choice is to lock the country down for as long as it takes and get the greatest economic pain over with up front so we can start rebuilding sooner.
There is no real plan, and in very short order, no one is going to have any confidence anymore in our elected officials without one. Then it all falls apart.
Well, that horse has already left the barn at the national level, but there is some very good leadership stepping up at the state level. Governors and state-level CDC directors lack the power to redirect manufacturing and distribution, but some are doing a very good job of articulating policy that should slow the spread of the disease and providing good information on what to do and why. But we really are suffering from the lack of leadership at the federal level.
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I dont, not at the expense of their lives. Eventually not working will entail greater risks than the virus for many, especially given who this virus is mainly killing. That without a real plan is not a great recipe for confidence.
Gov. Wolf delays enforcement of order closing 'non-life-sustaining' businesses amid COVID-19 (https://6abc.com/health/gov-wolf-delays-enforcement-of-order-closing-businesses-|-full-list/6031024/)
My neighbor, who is a dentist, thought it would be good to plan out some projects this weekend and went to a garden center. It was open when it was suppose to be closed and he was not even aware it was suppose to be. Our governor is delaying the enforcement because stores are remaining open. Until this hits hard, I dont see how you can enforce this.
I want to see a military like operation in increase ICU beds; without it I just dont think much of this will matter. The only story I have seen that relates to this is NJ trying to reopen a hospital that closed down last year, and already is working with the CORP on another. This is what we need, and it is stories like this we need to talk about to instill confidence.
The problem with you theory Joe is that people won’t be able to work if the place where they work remain closed. You can’t force a business to open just because you don’t like the program.
Sure there may be an outlaw business here and there who decides the heck with it, but the major s will follow the rules. I suspect most restaurants will too since they rely upon a supply chain they can’t control. Very few businesses are self suficient. And I really wonder how businesses would feel about restarting just to see it’s workforce become ill and head back home. Not sure that might happen but it is a possibility.
Building new wards is a nice thought but we can’t stock the ones we have. I’m not sure who gets the blame one this one but I’m really surprised the hospitals don’t have inventory. This is not a thing the government should have handled, it’s a hospital problem imo. But without a US based production capacity and a reliance on offshore suppliers it’s out of our hands.
Which brings us back to shutting down and staying home. Resources are limited. More will not come on line in any reasonable amounts anytime soon. Opening the workplace back to business as usual will simply crush the medical system. If the spread is not slowed it’s going to be a nightmare.
Slowing it requires people stay at home it’s just that simple.
Anyways we have beaten this horse to death. No sense beating it any longer.
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Well, China probably has the vaccine.
They have a candidate vaccine in clinical trials just as we have one in the US. Nobody has a proven vaccine that works. Posts such as this are not helpful.
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Making more ventilators is not enough in itself, somebody has to take care of those patients and we have yet to reach immediate cloning or learn how to practice medicine by downloading a program.
Currently more and more hospitals are running out protective equipment. I saw this coming since several weeks ago when we started to ration things even with no covid case in sight. Because of this, the medical personal is asked to take more and more risks, and there is that much that many will be willing to do. Our precautions already looked a little wimpy compared to other countries, with the decreasing safety more medical personal will get sick which will leave even less to take care of patients. Some will also die although this doesn't seem of concern to many, for whatever reason they think it's ok for caregivers to take one for the team.
Currently CDC says that if you run out of PPE, you can also use a bandanna. Rambo jokes aside, it's ridiculous that the responsible parties can't get their shit together and fix at least this part.
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The problem with you theory Joe is that people won’t be able to work if the place where they work remain closed. You can’t force a business to open just because you don’t like the program.
Sure there may be an outlaw business here and there who decides the heck with it, but the major s will follow the rules. I suspect most restaurants will too since they rely upon a supply chain they can’t control. Very few businesses are self suficient. And I really wonder how businesses would feel about restarting just to see it’s workforce become ill and head back home. Not sure that might happen but it is a possibility.
Building new wards is a nice thought but we can’t stock the ones we have. I’m not sure who gets the blame one this one but I’m really surprised the hospitals don’t have inventory. This is not a thing the government should have handled, it’s a hospital problem imo. But without a US based production capacity and a reliance on offshore suppliers it’s out of our hands.
Which brings us back to shutting down and staying home. Resources are limited. More will not come on line in any reasonable amounts anytime soon. Opening the workplace back to business as usual will simply crush the medical system. If the spread is not slowed it’s going to be a nightmare.
Slowing it requires people stay at home it’s just that simple.
Anyways we have beaten this horse to death. No sense beating it any longer.
Chicken egg problem.
Is it business that drives commerce with shoppers responding? Or is it shoppers that drive commerce with businesses responding?
I believe in the latter, and eventually business people will respond. If I owned a hardware store I would be thinking about what additional product I could realistically sell that people cant get anymore, and I would not blame any who do so.
Wendy Williams is ready to go back to work next week. The UFC has promised it's fight in mid-April will go on regardless. The media can piss and moan all they want here, but I guarantee you when that is the only sport available to broadcast, the networks will pay, and pay handsomely, for the rights. Companies will pay handsomely for the ad space. UFC, a fringe sport, may even become mainstream with the move since it will the only thing sport fans can tune into.
Not only is the virus going to effect the long term viability of many business sectors, but our response will probably effect other secotrs that would have be unscathed by it.
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Thanks, Keith, appreciate the concern. I am in the 11th day of persistent dry cough, very exhausting. I try to save energy by sleeping most of the time.
My symptoms are not apparently serious enough to warrant testing. Some of my friends are not that lucky. A violinist in the band that was playing on March 7, where we got the bug, is hospitalized with pneumonia and corona positive. Some of you might remember a few pics of him I posted. A healthy guy, late 20s, early 30s, non smoker, non drinker.
Hope you get well soon Slobo, and your friend too.
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This is not what I’ve been reading. Yes, There has been a wide range of total death predictions, but I haven’t read any source that says what we do doesn’t matter. The majority of sources I see are writing that moderate social distancing will be moderately helpful in reducing both the rate of the spread and total infections, and that extreme distancing will be more effective.
There are other possibilities besides “end it” and “delay the inevitable,” neither of which seems like the likely result. Every article I’ve read from a scientific source has suggested that reducing the rate of spread (through social distancing) also reduces the total number of infections. Of immediate benefit is that it will reduce the demand pressure on the available medical care so that a greater percentage of victims will be able to get the care they need. Longer term, it will give time for treatments to be tested and manufacturing scaled, and for a vaccine to be developed. With conflicting voices in the air, I choose to trust those with epidemiological cred, and those voices all seem to be saying that social isolation is the best tool we have until treatments have been developed.
We should assume that there will be a second wave. But if we have been successful in developing therapies during this first wave, the second should have less-severe consequences.
I’ve seen reports of hospital ships being dispatched to hot cities, and of university dormitories being offered up for hospital use. Neither of these provide ICU beds, but they do provide ways to relieve some of the pressure in hospitals by removing other patients with less-severe disease. That said, this ad-hoc approach is nowhere near sufficient, and the power to ramp up production and distribution of ventilators, etc rests with the POTUS, who seems unwilling to use it.
It seems to me irrational to keep asking for an ”end game” at this stage. It’s like asking for an end game in a war—you know the end game is to defeat the enemy, but you can’t know how long it will take to do that, or what the cost will be. But without total commitment to defeating the enemy, you are bound to lose the war.
There will be economic disruption in any case.
If we enforce “shelter in place” for two months, and it slows the infection curve, there will be much economic hardship.
If we do nothing, and our hospitals are overwhelmed and the virus kills by the thousands, people will shut themselves off, demand will tank, and there will be much economic hardship.
If millions of people die, demand will tank and there will be much economic hardship.
Given that economic pain is unavoidable, it seems to me that the logical choice is to lock the country down for as long as it takes and get the greatest economic pain over with up front so we can start rebuilding sooner.
Well, that horse has already left the barn at the national level, but there is some very good leadership stepping up at the state level. Governors and state-level CDC directors lack the power to redirect manufacturing and distribution, but some are doing a very good job of articulating policy that should slow the spread of the disease and providing good information on what to do and why. But we really are suffering from the lack of leadership at the federal level.
When at war, the country typically has a plan; generals dont ad hoc it.
Perhaps we are already screwed just by the fact that we moved all of our manufacturing overseas.
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Alan, please send Mrs Klein my sincere greetings, sympathies and admiration, I can only imagine what it's like.... I'm 6000 miles and your'e driving me nuts!! ;D ;D ;D
I would pass on your salutations. But she isn't talking to me right now. :)
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Let's do a thought experiment. Let's imagine that for the most part businesses in PA follow the rules, with the exceptions, at first. What happens when stores that are exempt start selling product they do not normally carry and that other locations do that had to close?
For instance, hardware stores can remain open. Now every hardware store I have been to is rather large with lots of storage and display space, so it would be easy for them to add more merchandise. What if they suddenly start selling office supply, a category not allowed to remain open? It's not a stretch. Eventually we will need paper and envelopes; someone is going to have to fill that need. What if they start selling furniture? Also not a stretch; hardware already supplies many other home goods. Sporting goods? Many-d-it-yourselfers are sports fans; it would be a good way help take care of your customers to provide additional products they enjoy but cant get elsewhere currently.
What happens when those other businesses start seeing stores allowed to remain open start selling the merchandise they normally sell?
I don’t see this as very likely to be a problem for a couple of reasons: first, supply chains are going to be disrupted enough that business who are open will have enough to do keeping their normal suite of items stocked. Second, Amazon. Hardware stores are considered essential because if your toilet is leaking, you need to fix it today. If you need envelopes, ordering online is plenty soon enough, and you don’t have to go out in public.
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When at war, the country typically has a plan; generals dont ad hoc it.
Perhaps we are already screwed just by the fact that we moved all of our manufacturing overseas.
They have a plan for the near future, but not, in the beginning, for the war as a whole. That develops as they learn about the enemy.
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You keep bringing up economic costs. Fair enough, they are real enough and need to be kept in mind. But if no measures were taken and the virus made billions sick at the same time, resulting in millions directly dead with much collateral death, that would also have a major economic impact. I'm just saying that we shouldn't pretend that it's one OR the other.
I'm taking this very seriously. I'm 75 and have medical issues that put me in the target. I haven;t been out of my house in 3-4 days except to go to the mailbox and and put the garbage cans out by the curb. I've been walking around the house disinfecting things, driving the missus crazy she's not being antiseptic enough. We ain't talking now. :) Economically, I'm OK. WE both are on SS and get pensions from the government. I'm actually spending less than I ordinarily do since we aren;t going out for entertainment and restaurants.
But the economic issue is very great. I know people who are now out of work with no income except unemployment checks. They're really scared how they're going to make it having car bills, rent and mortgages, etc. I have to finish dental work I'm in the middle of. But that won't happen. I was suppose to see my endocrinologist for a diabetes exam. That also was cancelled. My dentist closed his office until May 4, at least. I live in a 55+ community where everyone's old. They need to see doctors for regular things, cancer follow ups, etc. That isn't happening it seems. Like war when civilians get killed often more than combatants, what are the casualties of the whole population. So the economic issues are great as well as they reflect the things that are not getting taken care of like medical checkups and having money to buy food. Sure, we can live with this for a short time, but how long? Will there be a recovery if it goes on too long? Maybe I'm ahead of the thinking. But I don't think it will be too long before everyone starts to think seriously about the contingent problems.
The loss of wealth of a country is more than just having money for buying nice cars and going on vacations. The country's wealth provides for other health services and requirement humans need beyond Play things. If the economies of the world are damaged, then there will be other damages that could hurt people more. The cure could wind up being worse than the disease.
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The epidemics curve behaves like that. China was the first to be hit, it is the first to get out of it. Europe is now approaching peak epidemics (which in the risisng phase it's an exponential curve). In Portugal cases are doubling every 2 or 3 days. No need for speculations and conspiracy theories.
China has a delegation in Italy, trying to help. Spain is following suit. They did not pay heed to China's doctors warnings they should have closed down sooner.
There are many scientific papers published, we should listen to the science, not politics.
Paulo, If that's all that happened in CHina, a few thousand dead in a country of 1.3 billion, why are we so concerned? Is this disease over raed? You didn't answer the question I had about that. What did they do that we're not doing? Why did it stop with so little damage or deaths (comparably)? Do they know something we don't? Sure the press keeps talking about people dying, and they are. But the numbers don't (yet) compare to how many die every year from the regular seasonal flu. Why not?????
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I dont, not at the expense of their lives. Eventually not working will entail greater risks than the virus for many, especially given who this virus is mainly killing. That without a real plan is not a great recipe for confidence.
Gov. Wolf delays enforcement of order closing 'non-life-sustaining' businesses amid COVID-19 (https://6abc.com/health/gov-wolf-delays-enforcement-of-order-closing-businesses-|-full-list/6031024/)
My neighbor, who is a dentist, thought it would be good to plan out some projects this weekend and went to a garden center. It was open when it was suppose to be closed and he was not even aware it was suppose to be. Our governor is delaying the enforcement because stores are remaining open. Until this hits hard, I dont see how you can enforce this.
I want to see a military like operation in increase ICU beds; without it I just don't think much of this will matter. The only story I have seen that relates to this is NJ trying to reopen a hospital that closed down last year, and already is working with the CORP on another. This is what we need, and it is stories like this we need to talk about to instill confidence.
Some cruise ship line has offered their ships to be used as hospital ships.
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They have a candidate vaccine in clinical trials just as we have one in the US. Nobody has a proven vaccine that works. Posts such as this are not helpful.
So who here should be allowed to post their opinions? Which second-hand stories you read are more acceptable than others to be posted?
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Making more ventilators is not enough in itself, somebody has to take care of those patients and we have yet to reach immediate cloning or learn how to practice medicine by downloading a program.
Currently more and more hospitals are running out protective equipment. I saw this coming since several weeks ago when we started to ration things even with no covid case in sight. Because of this, the medical personal is asked to take more and more risks, and there is that much that many will be willing to do. Our precautions already looked a little wimpy compared to other countries, with the decreasing safety more medical personal will get sick which will leave even less to take care of patients. Some will also die although this doesn't seem of concern to many, for whatever reason they think it's ok for caregivers to take one for the team.
Currently CDC says that if you run out of PPE, you can also use a bandanna. Rambo jokes aside, it's ridiculous that the responsible parties can't get their shit together and fix at least this part.
3M says they'll be making 400 million N95 masks this year. How soon they roll out I don't know.
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When at war, the country typically has a plan; generals dont ad hoc it.
Perhaps we are already screwed just by the fact that we moved all of our manufacturing overseas.
I read yesterday that not only is the government going to force manufacturing of certain items like pharmaceuticals back to America, but that companies like Walmart and so many other are going to diversify their supply chains so they're not just relying on China or other single countries. Ironic that Trump may get American companies to start producing here because of the virus when tariffs couldn't get them to do it.
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Some cruise ship line has offered their ships to be used as hospital ships.
One way to still earn some money at the moment..
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There are 7 types of human coronaviruses
Human coronavirus OC43
Human coronavirus HKU1
Human coronavirus NL63
Human coronavirus 229E
Human coronavirus MERS
Human coronavirus SARS
Human coronavirus Covid-19
Guess how many have vaccines.
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One way to still earn some money at the moment..
I thought of that. They could make millions on a ship that's just sitting idle in port. It also gives them arguments for getting bailout money. But let's not look a gift horse in the mouth. The point is they're available. They have thousands of cabins that could be set up as recovery rooms. They could within days be pulled into any port and most big cities are on the ocean, or nearby. They have staff that could be trained to help out, clean up, as patients are moved in and out.
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Paulo, If that's all that happened in CHina, a few thousand dead in a country of 1.3 billion, why are we so concerned? Is this disease over raed? You didn't answer the question I had about that. What did they do that we're not doing? Why did it stop with so little damage or deaths (comparably)? Do they know something we don't? Sure the press keeps talking about people dying, and they are. But the numbers don't (yet) compare to how many die every year from the regular seasonal flu. Why not?????
Alan, that's a very myopic view. If we wait until the numbers exceed the seasonal flu numbers, it will be far too late to do anything useful to stem the disease.
We are concerned because achieve the result they did, China shut the country down. We are doing nothing like that. There are now several case studies to be made: China, South Korea, Italy, Spain, Iran. Look at the infection curves and the death curves and what actions they took. We are already well behind schedule for any of the best-case scenarios. I don't expect that our results will look like Italy, but I do expect them to look a lot like Spain. On the other hand, Spain is enforcing its lockdown now. We are not.
We are concerned because the Covid-19 virus is both deadlier and more contagious than most flus. While its hard to determine precise numbers because of the lack of testing capacity, it's estimated that the R0 value for Covid-19 os about 3.
Scientists measure the spread of an epidemic by a number called R0, or “R naught.” That number is calculated this way: for every person who develops the illness, how many other people do they give it to before they are cured (or dead) and no longer infectious? The R0 for coronavirus, in the absence of a control strategy, appears to be a number close to 3 – maybe a bit higher or lower, but in that ballpark. This is an extremely frightening number for such a deadly disease.
Suppose you catch the virus. You will give it to 3 other people, and they will each give it to three others, and so forth. Here is how the math works, where you, the “index case,” are the first line:
1
3
9
27
81
243
729
2,187
6,561
19,683
59,046
177,147
531,441
1,594,323
4,782,969
14,348,907
So, in just 15 steps of transmission, the virus has gone from just one index case to 14.3 million other people. Those 15 steps might take only a few weeks. The index person may be young and healthy, but many of those 14 million people will be old and sick, and they will likely die because they got a virus that started in one person's throat.
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Alan, that's a very myopic view. If we wait until the numbers exceed the seasonal flu numbers, it will be far too late to do anything useful to stem the disease.
We are concerned because achieve the result they did, China shut the country down. We are doing nothing like that. There are now several case studies to be made: China, South Korea, Italy, Spain, Iran. Look at the infection curves and the death curves and what actions they took. We are already well behind schedule for any of the best-case scenarios. I don't expect that our results will look like Italy, but I do expect them to look a lot like Spain. On the other hand, Spain is enforcing its lockdown now. We are not.
We are concerned because the Covid-19 virus is both deadlier and more contagious than most flus. While its hard to determine precise numbers because of the lack of testing capacity, it's estimated that the R0 value for Covid-19 os about 3.
So despite your claims of the seriousness of it, we are doing a half-a$$ed job of it. Everyone blames Trump for acting too late, something that could be argued both ways. Meanwhile, with all that, Democrat Mayor and Governors of NY where most of the viruses are currently located are just starting now to gear up getting serious about it.
"The mayor earlier this week told residents to prepare for a "shelter in place order," a declaration that was met with backlash from the state's governor, who said he wasn't going to "imprison" residents.
Instead, both leaders initially implemented less restrictive measures, including converting bars and restaurants to only takeout services and limiting public gatherings. Schools across the state were also ordered closed until April 1.
But on Friday, New York. Gov. Andrew Cuomo went a step further, signing an order directing the state's non-essential workers to stay home starting Sunday.
Businesses that don't comply will be met with mandatory closures and civil fines, Cuomo said.
"We need everyone to be safe, otherwise no one can be safe," he added."
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/21/health/new-york-coronavirus-cases-epicenter/index.html
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3M says they'll be making 400 million N95 masks this year. How soon they roll out I don't know.
That's not enough.
1. I don't know how many US will get.
2. That's likely over 1 year, we need them yesterday
3. For every patient that needs this there are at least 5-6 caregivers/24h that need to go in and out at least several times each, so let's be conservative and say 30+ masks/person/day. Many will need many more. For easy math choose 50/patient/day on average, for all sick patients. Let's say 3M brings 1 mil masks/day (now that's more fantasy than anything), so you can have masks for 20K sick patients (mostly ICU).
I also recall somebody said we'll be able to test a lot many weeks ago and here are, struggling to get testing.
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That's not enough.
1. I don't know how many US will get.
2. That's likely over 1 year, we need them yesterday
3. For every patient that needs this there are at least 5-6 caregivers/24h that need to go in and out at least several times each, so let's be conservative and say 30+ masks/person/day. Many will need many more. For easy math choose 50/patient/day on average, for all sick patients. Let's say 3M brings 1 mil masks/day (now that's more fantasy than anything), so you can have masks for 20K sick patients (mostly ICU).
I also recall somebody said we'll be able to test a lot many weeks ago and here are, struggling to get testing.
That's only one manufacturer. There are others.
In any case, what's your point? In war, there's usually not enough weapons when it first starts. In WWI and WWII, soldiers were marching with broomsticks. There weren't enough rifles to go around. You're probably one of those who wants to hollow out defense spending and then complain when there aren't enough weapons once the war starts. I understand that many medical supplies had to be discarded because they were past the expiry date, like film. Should we raise your taxes to pay for larger storage facilities? Now that oil prices have cratered, Trump want to refill our defense oil storage facilities. Many like yourself say that's a waste of money that should be spent elsewhere. When is enough, enough? It's impossible to prepare for every contingency that could possibly happen. A month ago we had 3 1/2% unemplyment rates, everything wa booming with no end in sight. God has a strange sense of humor.
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So despite your claims of the seriousness of it, we are doing a half-a$$ed job of it. Everyone blames Trump for acting too late, something that could be argued both ways. Meanwhile, with all that, Democrat Mayor and Governors of NY where most of the viruses are currently located are just starting now to gear up getting serious about it.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/21/health/new-york-coronavirus-cases-epicenter/index.html
Alan, these are not my claims. I’m not sure what your point is. Are you deflecting blame from Trump? Are you saying that no public officials have taken the virus seriously enough? It’s hard to tell from what you wrote.
If your point is the latter, I agree with you. If the former, we’ll have to disagree.
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Alan, these are not my claims. I’m not sure what your point is. Are you deflecting blame from Trump? Are you saying that no public officials have taken the virus seriously enough? It’s hard to tell from what you wrote. If your point is the latter, I agree with you. If the former, we’ll have to disagree.
Trump is distracted at the moment. He is having to close down his hotels, golf courses, and resorts. He acted quickly though by laying off all his employees.
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Alan, these are not my claims. I’m not sure what your point is. Are you deflecting blame from Trump? Are you saying that no public officials have taken the virus seriously enough? It’s hard to tell from what you wrote.
If your point is the latter, I agree with you. If the former, we’ll have to disagree.
Well, everyone in America is talking about lowering the curve, not stopping it like the Chinese. I don;t want to get this thing tomorrow or 6 months from now. Who are we kidding?
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I'm trying to get some deep breaths before I call you out on this, I hope it's just ignorance on your part.
This not a war, caregivers didn't sign up to die on the front lines. They are taking a risk because we want to do our job but don't treat us as soldiers.
I always find it amazing how generous are people with other people lives and health, it never cease to amaze me. We are not expendables so somebody can make a buck or save political face.
Stop defending Trump! He's the head of the screw up and shares part of the blame. We had a 2 months warning that went wasted trying to say it's not big deal, and last week now he says he knew all along this will be bad. So he was lying then or he is lying now. They had multiple warning signs; they even run the damn simulation and knew how unprepared we are, look up Crimson contagion. But then most people that knew got fired or left and now we deal with this shit.
How can you even claim that's just life, not having the most basic supplies when this system has the highest amount of money poured in. The blame is shared, no doubt, at all levels. The government has the responsibility to plan for this kind of shit and have some general strategy. And they did run the simulation but they did nothing with the results.
Are you comfortable going to the hospital now?
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There are now several case studies to be made: China, South Korea, Italy, Spain, Iran. Look at the infection curves and the death curves and what actions they took. We are already well behind schedule for any of the best-case scenarios. I don't expect that our results will look like Italy, but I do expect them to look a lot like Spain. On the other hand, Spain is enforcing its lockdown now. We are not.
Whether or not the death curve looks like Italy, really depends on how fast USGOV can play catchup.
As the pandemic rages across Europe and America, it is beginning to take hold in Africa and Latin America, too. By March 18th there were 134,000 registered infections outside China in 155 countries and territories. That is an increase of almost 90,000 cases and 43 countries and territories, in just seven days. I don't have the latest data.
Nor do I have the chart but it was widely displayed on the news yesterday. Italy, France & Spain all have their own exponential COVID-19 takeup curves, UK is notably exhibiting a faster take-up ramp than either of the three.
Countries doing the best and worst jobs fighting coronavirus (https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/03/17/coronavirus-how-countries-across-globe-responding-covid-19/5065867002/)
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Stop defending Trump! He's the head of the screw up and shares part of the blame. We had a 2 months warning that went wasted trying to say it's not big deal, and last week now he says he knew all along this will be bad.
Not just Trump.
Covid-19 and the Stiff Upper Lip — The Pandemic Response in the United Kingdom (NEJM) (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2005755?query=featured_home%23article_introduction)
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That's not enough.
1. I don't know how many US will get.
2. That's likely over 1 year, we need them yesterday
3. For every patient that needs this there are at least 5-6 caregivers/24h that need to go in and out at least several times each, so let's be conservative and say 30+ masks/person/day. Many will need many more. For easy math choose 50/patient/day on average, for all sick patients. Let's say 3M brings 1 mil masks/day (now that's more fantasy than anything), so you can have masks for 20K sick patients (mostly ICU).
I also recall somebody said we'll be able to test a lot many weeks ago and here are, struggling to get testing.
I kind of asked this quetion a few days ago but the answer was mostly "its complicated".
You are an insider, what happened? Why do hospitals not have enough stock of these items? Do they need to depend on the government to keep themselves prepared or did they just drop the ball and are now looking for a scapegoat?
It seems to me its the job of the hospital corps. to handle this kind of stuff, to keep proper levels of supplies on hand and not depend on just in time delivery. I can understand the government keeping a stockpile as well ...just in case...but at this point covid-19 has not seemed to over-run the system yet, but every hosptial seems to be without supplies. Why?
I'm not trying to lay blame, only to find answers.
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Not just Trump.
Covid-19 and the Stiff Upper Lip — The Pandemic Response in the United Kingdom (NEJM) (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2005755?query=featured_home%23article_introduction)
I'm sure he's not the only one but it doesn't make it any better now. From my limited view of politics lately I get the feeling that UK and US take turns on holding the beer.
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I'm trying to get some deep breaths before I call you out on this, I hope it's just ignorance on your part.
This not a war, caregivers didn't sign up to die on the front lines. They are taking a risk because we want to do our job but don't treat us as soldiers.
I always find it amazing how generous are people with other people lives and health, it never cease to amaze me. We are not expendables so somebody can make a buck or save political face.
Stop defending Trump! He's the head of the screw up and shares part of the blame. We had a 2 months warning that went wasted trying to say it's not big deal, and last week now he says he knew all along this will be bad. So he was lying then or he is lying now. They had multiple warning signs; they even run the damn simulation and knew how unprepared we are, look up Crimson contagion. But then most people that knew got fired or left and now we deal with this shit.
How can you even claim that's just life, not having the most basic supplies when this system has the highest amount of money poured in. The blame is shared, no doubt, at all levels. The government has the responsibility to plan for this kind of shit and have some general strategy. And they did run the simulation but they did nothing with the results.
Are you comfortable going to the hospital now?
I never said the combatants were the caregivers. If you understood that to mean that, then I wasn't clear and apologize. I'm very appreciative of their sacrifice. The point I was making was that the combatants are the ones who get sick. Everyone else are "civilians", who depending what their situation is, will get affected more or less seriously. That was my point. That there are coincidental casualties to war. We have to think of that as well.
While Trump could have done more in the beginning, people aren't going to shut down the economy at that time because it didn't seem that serious. I mentioned democrats Governor and Mayor of NY because here we are two months later, and they're still hesitant about shutting things down. So it's not fair to just blame the President. All leaders are hesitant to want to be blamed for going overboard and destroying the economy. So when you blame Trump, in fairness you should be just as critical of Democrats. Or be honest that more would not be done regardless of who was president, governor or mayor. If this thing fizzles out, and let's hope it does, there are going to be a lot of criticism of who screwed up the economy, put millions out of work and destroy businesses including many who own small photography businesses here who will have to start over.
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I kind of asked this quetion a few days ago but the answer was mostly "its complicated".
You are an insider, what happened? Why do hospitals not have enough stock of these items? Do they need to depend on the government to keep themselves prepared or did they just drop the ball and are now looking for a scapegoat?
It seems to me its the job of the hospital corps. to handle this kind of stuff, to keep proper levels of stuff on hand and not depend on just in time delivery. I can understand the government keeping a stockpile as well ...just in case...but at this point covid-19 has not seemed to over-run the system yet, but everyhosptial seems to be without supplies. Why?
I'm not trying to lay blame, only to find answers.
I don't have all the answers now. I suspect part of this is for profit medicine where most go on day to week supplies because it's more cost effective and the financial people have the power. If they hear from the authorities that it will get bad and you need to prepare that will carry enough weight to accomplish more.
So yes, hospital definitely have their share of blame but I partially understand why they haven't stockpiled on supplies without a clear reason; for this you need some strategic vision and guidance which wasn't there strong enough, early enough. Not to mention a lot of supplies are coming from China which is battling its own demons.
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I never said the combatants were the caregivers. If you understood that to mean that, then I wasn't clear and apologize. I'm very appreciative of their sacrifice. The point I was making was that the combatants are the ones who get sick. Everyone else are "civilians", who depending what their situation is, will get affected more or less seriously. That was my point. That there are coincidental casualties to war. We have to think of that as well.
While Trump could have done more in the beginning, people aren't going to shut down the economy at that time because it didn't seem that serious. I mentioned democrats Governor and Mayor of NY because here we are two months later, and they're still hesitant about shutting things down. So it's not fair to just blame the President. All leaders are hesitant to want to be blamed for going overboard and destroying the economy. So when you blame Trump, in fairness you should be just as critical of Democrats. Or be honest that more would not be done regardless of who was president, governor or mayor. If this thing fizzles out, and let's hope it does, there are going to be a lot of criticism of who screwed up the economy, put millions out of work and destroy businesses including many who own small photography businesses here who will have to start over.
Many share blame here. Trump was the face of the government and maybe they were doing more in the background but what he was saying publicly wasn't what he should have said.
Right now I could care less about their political affiliation; even now in the 11th hour they can't get together.
My frustration comes from the fact that we had the knowledge and means to deal with this much better. It would still be bad but at least have the basics covered.
That's it, I'm done venting for today.
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This not a war, caregivers didn't sign up to die on the front lines. They are taking a risk because we want to do our job but don't treat us as soldiers.
I always find it amazing how generous are people with other people lives and health, it never cease to amaze me. We are not expendables so somebody can make a buck or save political face.
My daughter is a music therapist at UCSF Children's Hospital and is going to work every day to help the kids who are hospitalized. The hospital has drastically curbed visitors to control the possibility of spreading COVID-19. She didn't ask for this to be part of her work but realizes that if she can help with the kid's mental health during a time where they might only be able to see one parent if that it is worth it to her. There are enough f**k ups in many areas that have gotten us to this point. The focus should be on managing the situation the best way possible so that we can regain a sense of normalcy as quickly as possible.
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I don't have all the answers now. I suspect part of this is for profit medicine where most go on day to week supplies because it's more cost effective and the financial people have the power. If they hear from the authorities that it will get bad and you need to prepare that will carry enough weight to accomplish more.
So yes, hospital definitely have their share of blame but I partially understand why they haven't stockpiled on supplies without a clear reason; for this you need some strategic vision and guidance which wasn't there strong enough, early enough. Not to mention a lot of supplies are coming from China which is battling its own demons.
So the long and short of it is its really the fault of the hospital corps. and they are looking for a scapegoat. Fair enough.
Do you guys not do your own research and look ahead to potential threats? You need the government to tell you how to do your jobs? That seems a little short sighted if you ask me.
You continually gripe about Trump not doing enough when it looks most likely that your own industry is who dropped many of the balls.
Just sayin.
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One of the reasons that the government and hospitals weren't prepared is that this is a classic "black swan" event and you simply can't be prepared for black swans. A meteor could hit, the North Koreans could lose their shit and lob a nuke into San Francisco, it could turn out that Wells Fargo has been running a giant ponzi scheme and suddenly goes belly-up, Arab terrorists could run an airliner into the Twin Towers -- wait, that already happened -- and so on. You can't prepare because it's simply too costly to prepare. The N95 masks actually have a limited lifetime, and if you had a billion of them in storage, you'd have to throw them away every few years and get another billion, while you wait for the black swan to come in, one that might never arrive. So, when a black swan arrives, you do the best you can. One thing that could have been done, I suppose, is to have the *machinery* to make masks built and then carefully mothballed, so it could be rolled out on demand, although you'd still have to worry about where the manufacturing materials would come from. But, basically a black swan is what it is.
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So the long and short of it is its really the fault of the hospital corps. and they are looking for a scapegoat. Fair enough.
Do you guys not do your own research and look ahead to potential threats? You need the government to tell you how to do your jobs? That seems a little short sighted if you ask me.
You continually gripe about Trump not doing enough when it looks most likely that your own industry is who dropped many of the balls.
Just sayin.
This is what happens when you depend on the government. Personal initiative gets lost. Everyone thinks and expects the government to handle it. PLus, hospitals don't want to spend money. It costs a lot to buy stock, set aside expensive storage facilities. Especially when it wasn't needed before.
People tend to wake up after the crisis. It's human nature. So now going forward, we'll spend a lot of money on stuff. Just like FEMA has bought trailers for people who lost homes during flood and hurricanes, we'll now spend money for FEMA to store medical materials. OF course, the next tragedy will be something else we're not prepared for. Climate change? :)
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To make matters worse, UK tv news channels I watch are running Trump addresses each day. I just switched him off a few minutes ago. I don't care what he has to say, especially now that he appears to be writing his own incoherent speeches all by himself.
If you want to watch tautological hype, watch his addresses to the nation. How anyone can require four different versions of exactly the same sentence in order to state something is a wonder of its own. As great a wonder is that the rest of the world seems to air this crap every day: surely, there are enough local incompetents of our own that we can watch - should we desire to give one space in our home?
Perhaps it's all an internationally agreed distraction from the figures of death.
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One of the reasons that the government and hospitals weren't prepared is that this is a classic "black swan" event and you simply can't be prepared for black swans. A meteor could hit, the North Koreans could lose their shit and lob a nuke into San Francisco, it could turn out that Wells Fargo has been running a giant ponzi scheme and suddenly goes belly-up, Arab terrorists could run an airliner into the Twin Towers -- wait, that already happened -- and so on. You can't prepare because it's simply too costly to prepare. The N95 masks actually have a limited lifetime, and if you had a billion of them in storage, you'd have to throw them away every few years and get another billion, while you wait for the black swan to come in, one that might never arrive. So, when a black swan arrives, you do the best you can. One thing that could have been done, I suppose, is to have the *machinery* to make masks built and then carefully mothballed, so it could be rolled out on demand, although you'd still have to worry about where the manufacturing materials would come from. But, basically a black swan is what it is.
Heres my problem with that. The hospitals are out of supplies even BEFORE the bulk of the covid 19 cases has hit them. They were under prepared for even the flu season. They deserve a big part of the blame if we are playing the blame game.
I totally agreethat we have cut our own throats by moving so much manufacturing off shore. For the most part the US "manufactures" far less than we should. Even "Made in America" has come to mean assembled in America using off shore materials. For that Corporate American takes the bulk of the blame.
My point is that we can't just say...This Adminsitration screwed this up. They missed a lot to be sure but I'm not confident any other adminsitration would have done better. There is a desire to point a finger at someone and way, its your fault. Even more so in an election year. Its not helping.
There is more than enough blame to go all around.
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My daughter is a music therapist at UCSF Children's Hospital and is going to work every day to help the kids who are hospitalized. The hospital has drastically curbed visitors to control the possibility of spreading COVID-19. She didn't ask for this to be part of her work but realizes that if she can help with the kid's mental health during a time where they might only be able to see one parent if that it is worth it to her. There are enough f**k ups in many areas that have gotten us to this point. The focus should be on managing the situation the best way possible so that we can regain a sense of normalcy as quickly as possible.
That's what we do, trying to do the best of what we have.
However that doesn't mean we just have to accept what's happening and not trying to get people rectify as much as possible either. If we accept that this is what you get, live with it, they won't make any effort to get this better. What's few bodies as opposed to millions of votes.
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That's what we do, trying to do the best of what we have.
However that doesn't mean we just have to accept what's happening and not trying to get people rectify as much as possible either. If we accept that this is what you get, live with it, they won't make any effort to get this better. What's few bodies as opposed to millions of votes.
Not so fast: there have been numerous occasions when dead persons have made postal votes!
In case anyone thinks that insensitive, reflect on the fact that it's true. Today, with all the Intenet collating of personal information, the percentage of dead voters can only rise. Your name and details are for sale, and no, you don't get any royalties.
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Heres my problem with that. The hospitals are out of supplies even BEFORE the bulk of the covid 19 cases has hit them. They were under prepared for even the flu season. They deserve a big part of the blame if we are playing the blame game.
...
What I said before is this:
- they are buying only for a short window ahead in order to keep their finances in check
- no single hospital will buy a lot in advance without some coordination from a centralized center, that's why most countries have disaster management control centers. You need a global picture to see where the wind is blowing.
- when the global center failed them and it was clear it will be bad, tough luck, everybody in the world is buying now, the demand far outstrips the supply.
- that's where the national emergency supply comes in play; oh, wait ...
Should the hospitals live with such a short supply? Of course not, but all are and that's a problem in itself to be addressed on another day.
FYI, it's not my industry, I just work there.
My point is that we can't just say...This Adminsitration screwed this up. They missed a lot to be sure but I'm not confident any other adminsitration would have done better. There is a desire to point a finger at someone and way, its your fault. Even more so in an election year. Its not helping.
I'm trying to move on but a failure it remains. Maybe another administration would have done as bad or worse, it's possible, but that's no consolation.
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What I said before is this:
- they are buying only for a short window ahead in order to keep their finances in check
- no single hospital will buy a lot in advance without some coordination from a centralized center, that's why most countries have disaster management control centers. You need a global picture to see where the wind is blowing.
So you are telling me that the hospital system is NOT in contact with say, the CDC? Or you are and you failed to listen?
- when the global center failed them and it was clear it will be bad, tough luck, everybody in the world is buying now, the demand far outstrips the supply.
- that's where the national emergency supply comes in play; oh, wait ...
Should the hospitals live with such a short supply? Of course not, but all are and that's a problem in itself to be addressed on another day.
There WAS global warning, at least as soon as China started reporting. Really what more do you want? Oh wait...never mind.
Emergency supply? You mean the one the hospital system shound have had to supply themselves? Far easier to just blame the administration in power I guess.
FYI, it's not my industry, I just work there.
Dude, its your industry....
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One of the reasons that the government and hospitals weren't prepared is that this is a classic "black swan" event and you simply can't be prepared for black swans.
That may be part of it you can't but the issue here is not just how the government 'screwed it up' but also the attitude, and misinformation, of the 'many' in both the UK and US. As long as it was south of the English Channel and acroos the Atlantic. It was 'them' not 'us'.
That NEJM perspective says a ton.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2005755?query=featured_home%23article_introduction
The lack of government action in the second week of March was also completely out of step with almost all other European countries. The U.K. chief science advisor’s statement, repeated in interviews, that the way out of this epidemic was to get to 60% or more of the population recovered from infection and thus approach “herd immunity” did not provide reassurance. An infectious disease modeler at Harvard, originally from the United Kingdom, initially assumed that this proposal was meant as satire ...
And dissect, as we may, the recent history - did anyone notice the speed at which the Chinese built those field hospitals ?
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So you are telling me that the hospital system is NOT in contact with say, the CDC? Or you are and you failed to listen?
There WAS global warning, at least as soon as China started reporting. Really what more do you want? Oh wait...never mind.
Emergency supply? You mean the one the hospital system shound have had to supply themselves? Far easier to just blame the administration in power I guess.
Dude, its your industry....
I don’t understand any of this. I thought you all wanted free market capitalism running the health care and no NHS involved. In fact I have read pages of that on this very forum and thought well perhaps that’s a thing. I’m a photographer and know jack didly about NHS vs private health care. What do I know.
So you have private health care and it’s run on capitalistic principles is it not? Do have that that wrong? I have never been to a health care facility of any kind in the US so perhaps that is wrong on my part. Anyway, why would you expect the privately owned hospitals to plan for something like this? It may not be profitable to supply so may ICU beds. They take care of people who are sick and those people pay. They haven’t taken a pledge to solve the problems of the world. They are a business. It’s capitalism. I don’t see why you would think a system like that owes anyone anything. If it was a government run, publicly funded national health system I understand that you could have an expectation that you had paid for something and now it must deliver. My local camera store will sell me a camera if they have a camera. If they are all sold out and I need a camera that’s my problem.
Watch all the rich folks buying up there own ventilators and stuff. They can afford it. Not enough to go around and a bit selfish but they can afford it and that’s the system. You think Zuckerberg doesn’t have one all good to go? You pays your money and you takes your chances.
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So you are telling me that the hospital system is NOT in contact with say, the CDC? Or you are and you failed to listen?
There WAS global warning, at least as soon as China started reporting. Really what more do you want? Oh wait...never mind.
Emergency supply? You mean the one the hospital system shound have had to supply themselves? Far easier to just blame the administration in power I guess.
Dude, its your industry....
I don't think you are here to get answers but to displace the blame.
It appears you either don't understand how a national emergency response works or you just have an agenda.
CDC had an epidemics emergency center, but guess what, this administration dissolved it. Fauci said it would have been better to have it, and he is a nice person.
But CDC could have told them, right? Well, when one of their members said this will be bad the Trump administration jumped like the vultures. https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/25/cdc-expects-community-spread-of-coronavirus-as-top-official-warns-disruptions-could-be-severe/
The cynical would say it's because because the stocks fell and it wasn't when they planned; few nice words to get the stocks up again and who had to make the sales made them, then suddenly the virus will not go in April.
Because Trump said that, despite you calling me a liar. Here is some reading for you:
https://www.factcheck.org/2020/02/will-the-new-coronavirus-go-away-in-april/
And if you are too lazy to go through it, I'll make it even easier.:
Trump, Feb. 10: Now, the virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April. We’re in great shape though. We have 12 cases — 11 cases, and many of them are in good shape now. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-white-house-business-session-nations-governors/
Trump, Feb. 10: “And by the way, the virus. … It looks like by April, you know in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away — I hope that’s true. But we’re doing great in our country. China, I spoke with President Xi, and they’re working very, very hard. And I think it’s going to all work out fine. Rough stuff, I tell you, rough, rough stuff. But I think it’s going to work out good. We only have 11 cases, and they’re all getting better. Go to 31.30: https://www.c-span.org/video/?468493-1/president-trump-holds-rally-manchester-hampshire&start=1882
I'm waiting to see how you will say he still didn't say it, or saying he's not sure makes it not count. And this is just a small piece.
But no, now it's the medical industry (which apparently is mine, the same as RV industry is yours) fault that they listened to Trump when he said it's ok, no worries.
As I wrote for whoever had eyes to read it. The epidemics it's not Trump's fault. The fact that the lost all the time trying to prove it's not his fault and not doing what he should have done, it's definitely his to own. And the democrats are guilty into pressuring him by trying to gain political gain.
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I don’t understand any of this. I thought you all wanted free market capitalism running the health care and no NHS involved. In fact I have read pages of that on this very forum and thought well perhaps that’s a thing. I’m a photographer and know jack didly about NHS vs private health care. What do I know.
So you have private health care and it’s run on capitalistic principles is it not? Do have that that wrong? I have never been to a health care facility of any kind in the US so perhaps that is wrong on my part. Anyway, why would you expect the privately owned hospitals to plan for something like this? It may not be profitable to supply so may ICU beds. They take care of people who are sick and those people pay. They haven’t taken a pledge to solve the problems of the world. They are a business. It’s capitalism. I don’t see why you would think a system like that owes anyone anything. If it was a government run, publicly funded national health system I understand that you could have an expectation that you had paid for something and now it must deliver. My local camera store will sell me a camera if they have a camera. If they are all sold out and I need a camera that’s my problem.
Watch all the rich folks buying up there own ventilators and stuff. They can afford it. Not enough to go around and a bit selfish but they can afford it and that’s the system. You think Zuckerberg doesn’t have one all good to go? You pays your money and you takes your chances.
Good points.
There are widespread issues with the health industry and the daily shortages but this is not entirely on them.
Luckily my hospital still has some supplies, we have been asked to ration it in preparation of the flood because the reserve won't accommodate for that and it's hard to find something to buy now. We would have had enough for business as usual. Many smaller hospitals or who got hit earlier are not so lucky. The system is screwed up, many hospitals have very little financial reserve and occasionally operate at a loss, so you can't really expect them to buy stuff in bulk and keep it just in case. They will go bankrupt, this is the market. The bigger systems have some reserve on essentials but that can only go so much.
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I don’t understand any of this. I thought you all wanted free market capitalism running the health care and no NHS involved. In fact I have read pages of that on this very forum and thought well perhaps that’s a thing. I’m a photographer and know jack didly about NHS vs private health care. What do I know.
So you have private health care and it’s run on capitalistic principles is it not? Do have that that wrong? I have never been to a health care facility of any kind in the US so perhaps that is wrong on my part. Anyway, why would you expect the privately owned hospitals to plan for something like this? It may not be profitable to supply so may ICU beds. They take care of people who are sick and those people pay. They haven’t taken a pledge to solve the problems of the world. They are a business. It’s capitalism. I don’t see why you would think a system like that owes anyone anything. If it was a government run, publicly funded national health system I understand that you could have an expectation that you had paid for something and now it must deliver. My local camera store will sell me a camera if they have a camera. If they are all sold out and I need a camera that’s my problem.
Watch all the rich folks buying up there own ventilators and stuff. They can afford it. Not enough to go around and a bit selfish but they can afford it and that’s the system. You think Zuckerberg doesn’t have one all good to go? You pays your money and you takes your chances.
As a sucessful photographer would you trust your business to a camera store or would you have the redundancy to keep working even if some of your equipment fails? Would your customer be happy or hire you again if your only camera failed and you hade to cancel a once in a lifetime shoot because you could not buy replacement?
Part of being a sucessful business is looking forward to see what trends and problems will effect your business and prepare for them. Having the right products and at the right time lets you survive. If you expect a certain number of buyers you stock up accordingly. We are not talking ICU beds altho those are important right now. We are talking about the most basic of supplies and yes, thats the responsibility of the hospital to provide. IN a pandemic it gets iffy but they have failed even before it gets started. They choose to be just in time, and now its hurting so they blame the government. Thats the point. Its not so much that they are without, but rather they want to blame someone else.
If I had a choice of a hospital in the future between one ran out of supplies before a crisis and one who was more prepared I know which one would get my business going forward, give I survived the original crisis.
I suspect a government run program might far worse. They would have no competition and no reason to try nad get better. Where else are you going to go?
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Italy: another 793 deaths today alone.
The country’s experience shows that steps to isolate the coronavirus and limit people’s movement need to be put in place early, with absolute clarity, then strictly enforced.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-center-lessons.html?referringSource=articleShare
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Italy: another 793 deaths today alone.
The country’s experience shows that steps to isolate the coronavirus and limit people’s movement need to be put in place early, with absolute clarity, then strictly enforced.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-center-lessons.html?referringSource=articleShare
That is terrifying.
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I don’t understand any of this. I thought you all wanted free market capitalism running the health care and no NHS involved. In fact I have read pages of that on this very forum and thought well perhaps that’s a thing. I’m a photographer and know jack didly about NHS vs private health care. What do I know.
So you have private health care and it’s run on capitalistic principles is it not? Do have that that wrong? I have never been to a health care facility of any kind in the US so perhaps that is wrong on my part. Anyway, why would you expect the privately owned hospitals to plan for something like this? It may not be profitable to supply so may ICU beds. They take care of people who are sick and those people pay. They haven’t taken a pledge to solve the problems of the world. They are a business. It’s capitalism. I don’t see why you would think a system like that owes anyone anything. If it was a government run, publicly funded national health system I understand that you could have an expectation that you had paid for something and now it must deliver. My local camera store will sell me a camera if they have a camera. If they are all sold out and I need a camera that’s my problem.
Watch all the rich folks buying up there own ventilators and stuff. They can afford it. Not enough to go around and a bit selfish but they can afford it and that’s the system. You think Zuckerberg doesn’t have one all good to go? You pays your money and you takes your chances.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/03/21/exclusive-rich-russians-are-hoarding-ventilators-to-protect-themselves-against-the-coronavirus-a69703
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If I had a choice of a hospital in the future between one ran out of supplies before a crisis and one who was more prepared I know which one would get my business going forward, give I survived the original crisis.
Provided it was in network, I presume.
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I don't think you are here to get answers but to displace the blame.
It appears you either don't understand how a national emergency response works or you just have an agenda.
CDC had an epidemics emergency center, but guess what, this administration dissolved it. Fauci said it would have been better to have it, and he is a nice person.
So your industry is so full of incompetents that they need to hear something from the President before they act? Ok, got it, you guys suck.
So the CDC posted zero in all of this to hospitals? Really? Ok, got.
But CDC could have told them, right? Well, when one of their members said this will be bad the Trump administration jumped like the vultures. https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/25/cdc-expects-community-spread-of-coronavirus-as-top-official-warns-disruptions-could-be-severe/
Did you even read the article you linked, becasue it says nothing you said it did. the information was put out, it was not dismissed nor was it trashed. Wanna try again? Did the Hospitial industry respond or were they waiting for Trump to tell them to do something? Inquiring minds want to know.
The cynical would say it's because because the stocks fell and it wasn't when they planned; few nice words to get the stocks up again and who had to make the sales made them, then suddenly the virus will not go in April.
Because Trump said that, despite you calling me a liar. Here is some reading for you:
https://www.factcheck.org/2020/02/will-the-new-coronavirus-go-away-in-april/
And if you are too lazy to go through it, I'll make it even easier.:
Trump, Feb. 10: Now, the virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April. We’re in great shape though. We have 12 cases — 11 cases, and many of them are in good shape now. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-white-house-business-session-nations-governors/
Trump, Feb. 10: “And by the way, the virus. … It looks like by April, you know in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away — I hope that’s true. But we’re doing great in our country. China, I spoke with President Xi, and they’re working very, very hard. And I think it’s going to all work out fine. Rough stuff, I tell you, rough, rough stuff. But I think it’s going to work out good. We only have 11 cases, and they’re all getting better. Go to 31.30: https://www.c-span.org/video/?468493-1/president-trump-holds-rally-manchester-hampshire&start=1882
I'm waiting to see how you will say he still didn't say it, or saying he's not sure makes it not count. And this is just a small piece.
Are you unable to read or is your vison just clouded by Trump hate? Saying he's not sure does count. Unless you are blind. I guess hope is a bad thing right?
The key phrases;
Now, the virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in.
And by the way, the virus. … It looks like by April, you know in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away — I hope that’s true.
But no, now it's the medical industry (which apparently is mine, the same as RV industry is yours) fault that they listened to Trump when he said it's ok, no worries.
As I wrote for whoever had eyes to read it. The epidemics it's not Trump's fault. The fact that the lost all the time trying to prove it's not his fault and not doing what he should have done, it's definitely his to own. And the democrats are guilty into pressuring him by trying to gain political gain.
So your industry is so full of incompetents that they need to hear something from the President before they act? Ok, got it, you guys suck at this.
Trying to prove its not his fault? Are you serious? Wow. Its amazing what you can read into or hear ito something when you are in full TDS.
I just read a nice article about timeline of the testing problems and who caused them. It was not Trump trying to prove "this was not his fault". It was the FDA and the CDC and it took Trump to crush the regs that caused the problems. It was the 'apolitical" groups defending turf who screwed this up. Now if you want to fault Trump for not blowing up the regs for the CD and FDA prior to the event, have at it.
The hospital industry of which you are a part needs to take their blame. I know you dont want to hear that but thats life.
BTW, how loud was your voice to your superiors and upper management advocating for big changes and preparations for the storm that was coming? It was public knowlege by early knowlege. Or were you waiting for Trump?
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Italy: another 793 deaths today alone.
The UK is two weeks behind Italy. Uncanny :(
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Provided it was in network, I presume.
Not bound by networks.
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As a sucessful photographer would you trust your business to a camera store or would you have the redundancy to keep working even if some of your equipment fails? Would your customer be happy or hire you again if your only camera failed and you hade to cancel a once in a lifetime shoot because you could not buy replacement?
Part of being a sucessful business is looking forward to see what trends and problems will effect your business and prepare for them. Having the right products and at the right time lets you survive. If you expect a certain number of buyers you stock up accordingly. We are not talking ICU beds altho those are important right now. We are talking about the most basic of supplies and yes, thats the responsibility of the hospital to provide. IN a pandemic it gets iffy but they have failed even before it gets started. They choose to be just in time, and now its hurting so they blame the government. Thats the point. Its not so much that they are without, but rather they want to blame someone else.
If I had a choice of a hospital in the future between one ran out of supplies before a crisis and one who was more prepared I know which one would get my business going forward, give I survived the original crisis.
I suspect a government run program might far worse. They would have no competition and no reason to try nad get better. Where else are you going to go?
That is a crap analogy but let’s give it a try anyway. Let’s ay there are two camera stores. One has tons of equipment in case someone needs tons of equipment. They carry a lot of stock but it drives up prices for obvious reason. The other store has just a few cameras but it’s a lot cheaper because they aren’t financing tons of equipment that in 100 years has never been needed. Guess what, I buy the cheaper one.
So let’s look at something closer to the real life shall we. There are two hospitals. One has an entire floor of state of the art ICU units for in case there is a pandemic. The other has the general stuff that is used year after year. Guess which one will be able to offer a cheaper service? Guess which one will eat the other ones lunch? Guess which one will be open for business if and when a pandemic strikes?
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I have a couple plumbing issues I need to fix in my house and went to Home Depot in Montogomery County, the epi-center in PA right now. I figured I get this done before they were forced to close. I was expecting a small crowd; 3/4 of the parking lot was full. Most people inside were doing leisure shopping. This is going to get bad.
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I have a couple plumbing issues I need to fix in my house and went to Home Depot in Montogomery County, the epi-center in PA right now. I figured I get this done before they were forced to close. I was expecting a small crowd; 3/4 of the parking lot was full. Most people inside were doing leisure shopping. This is going to get bad.
I have a nasty feeling in the pit of my stomach that you are right.
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This discussion of the situation in Italy (where I have many nervous and frustrated friends and relatives) is not a simple partisan left vs right issue. I hope we can focus on working out where to go from here, and on the basis of scientific and economic realities, not simplistic, rigid allegiances to politicians, parties, or doctrines.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-center-lessons.html
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That is a crap analogy but let’s give it a try anyway. Let’s ay there are two camera stores. One has tons of equipment in case someone needs tons of equipment. They carry a lot of stock but it drives up prices for obvious reason. The other store has just a few cameras but it’s a lot cheaper because they aren’t financing tons of equipment that in 100 years has never been needed. Guess what, I buy the cheaper one.
So let’s look at something closer to the real life shall we. There are two hospitals. One has an entire floor of state of the art ICU units for in case there is a pandemic. The other has the general stuff that is used year after year. Guess which one will be able to offer a cheaper service? Guess which one will eat the other ones lunch? Guess which one will be open for business if and when a pandemic strikes?
No it was the perfect analogy, but lets look at your counter. You are only gonna buy your camera or whatever at the chaeper store if they actually have a camera to sell you since they keep very little stock. And if they dont and you need the camera you are gonna shop the other tore, becuse they have what you need at the time, price be danmed. Because you need to complete the assigment or lose the client.
Now the hospitals. I can't think of any hospitals without ICU's ( but perhaps ther are some) so thats a pretty bad comparison. But lets take back the level where this started...masks and proper protective care. If your cheap hospital is not able to keep basic supplies on hand, word will get around. Peoples lives are at stake and I doubt they will choose the inferior hospital that can't even protects patients and workers with protective gear. Their very lives are at stake..no matter what the cost.
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I don’t understand any of this. I thought you all wanted free market capitalism running the health care and no NHS involved. In fact I have read pages of that on this very forum and thought well perhaps that’s a thing. I’m a photographer and know jack didly about NHS vs private health care. What do I know.
So you have private health care and it’s run on capitalistic principles is it not? Do have that that wrong? I have never been to a health care facility of any kind in the US so perhaps that is wrong on my part. Anyway, why would you expect the privately owned hospitals to plan for something like this? It may not be profitable to supply so may ICU beds. They take care of people who are sick and those people pay. They haven’t taken a pledge to solve the problems of the world. They are a business. It’s capitalism. I don’t see why you would think a system like that owes anyone anything. If it was a government run, publicly funded national health system I understand that you could have an expectation that you had paid for something and now it must deliver. My local camera store will sell me a camera if they have a camera. If they are all sold out and I need a camera that’s my problem.
Watch all the rich folks buying up there own ventilators and stuff. They can afford it. Not enough to go around and a bit selfish but they can afford it and that’s the system. You think Zuckerberg doesn’t have one all good to go? You pays your money and you takes your chances.
Martin, I'm a New Yorker. There's plenty of socialized medicine there and in the US. We have Medicare for the elderly like me and my wife that services all 50 states. Then there's 50 state health programs like Medicaid. In NYC, the government runs The New York City Health and Hospitals Corporation including 11 hospitals. Why didn't the State of New York and the City of New York plan for this emergency? They're blaming it on Trump because the news media doesn;t like him. America is made up of 50 states. The states also must take responsibility, or should, for their residents own welfare. States run their state and local police departments, highway construction, NAtional Guard and Reserve Armed FOrces, mental health facilities, jails, etc. NYS budget is $175 billion and NYC is around $80 billion per year. It's the State's responsibility to take care of thier residents. Sure the Federal government can be helpful in providing coordination and research through the CDC. That's up to Congress and the president. But the state cannot shirk their duty and blame Washington DC for their own lack of preparation. NYS is a big rich state. It spends 70 billion dollars on public health care. Why didn't they store $50 million, less than 1/10 of 1%, in spare medical equipment for this emergency? It's just convenient to blame Trump and the media doesn;t hold NYC and NYS government's feet to the fire.
Here's info: The New York City Health and Hospitals Corporation (HHC) is a $6.7 billion integrated healthcare delivery system with its own 400,000-member health plan, MetroPlus. As the nation's largest municipal healthcare organization, HHC serves 1.3 million New Yorkers every year, and more than 475,000 of them are uninsured. HHC provides medical, mental health, and substance abuse services through its 11 acute care hospitals, all of which are Designated AIDS Centers; four skilled nursing facilities; six large diagnostic and treatment centers; and more than 70 community-based clinics. HHC Health and Home Care also provides in-home services to persons living in New York.
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So your industry is so full of incompetents that they need to hear something from the President before they act? Ok, got it, you guys suck.
So the CDC posted zero in all of this to hospitals? Really? Ok, got.
Did you even read the article you linked, becasue it says nothing you said it did. the information was put out, it was not dismissed nor was it trashed. Wanna try again? Did the Hospitial industry respond or were they waiting for Trump to tell them to do something? Inquiring minds want to know.
Are you unable to read or is your vison just clouded by Trump hate? Saying he's not sure does count. Unless you are blind. I guess hope is a bad thing right?
The key phrases;
Now, the virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in.
And by the way, the virus. … It looks like by April, you know in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away — I hope that’s true.
So your industry is so full of incompetents that they need to hear something from the President before they act? Ok, got it, you guys suck at this.
Trying to prove its not his fault? Are you serious? Wow. Its amazing what you can read into or hear ito something when you are in full TDS.
I just read a nice article about timeline of the testing problems and who caused them. It was not Trump trying to prove "this was not his fault". It was the FDA and the CDC and it took Trump to crush the regs that caused the problems. It was the 'apolitical" groups defending turf who screwed this up. Now if you want to fault Trump for not blowing up the regs for the CD and FDA prior to the event, have at it.
The hospital industry of which you are a part needs to take their blame. I know you dont want to hear that but thats life.
BTW, how loud was your voice to your superiors and upper management advocating for big changes and preparations for the storm that was coming? It was public knowlege by early knowlege. Or were you waiting for Trump?
So the health industry is incompetent and this is their fault, good to know, you also seem very certain of it. Hopefully you won't feel as such when you need their services, it leads to mutual dissatisfaction.
That Trump excuse is just lame, sorry; it would be funny but it's not. If anybody else would say that publicly there would be no excuse, but if Trump only says some people, ..., so he's not actually saying what he's saying if he's wrong, but he definitely meant it if he's right.
Either way, it's apparent that you don't understand how hospitals work in this market and what you want deep inside is something akin to Bernie's plan, you just don't want to admit it.
Martin raised very valid concerns about your view of market. I will repeat it one more time:
- most hospitals have limited profitability these days, they run barely above 0 (why it's a different discussion).
- they cannot afford to buy too much supplies at times without severely disturbing their cash flow, if they do they go bankrupt. In many places they are the only hospital around so if they go down, you might be able to find a hospital to your liking many miles away and for increased cost (even if not directly, the insurance would go up). That's the reason many small hospitals are being bought by larger ones or they just close.
Many don't have the resources to assess the global trends; they need that input if there should expect the unexpected, that's where the command center comes. And US administration had the data, just didn't bother sharing it.
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No it was the perfect analogy, but lets look at your counter. You are only gonna buy your camera or whatever at the chaeper store if they actually have a camera to sell you since they keep very little stock. And if they dont and you need the camera you are gonna shop the other tore, becuse they have what you need at the time, price be danmed. Because you need to complete the assigment or lose the client.
Now the hospitals. I can't think of any hospitals without ICU's ( but perhaps ther are some) so thats a pretty bad comparison. But lets take back the level where this started...masks and proper protective care. If your cheap hospital is not able to keep basic supplies on hand, word will get around. Peoples lives are at stake and I doubt they will choose the inferior hospital that can't even protects patients and workers with protective gear. Their very lives are at stake..no matter what the cost.
There are plenty of hospitals in the smaller cities without ICUs that send patients to us, and many of those that have ICUs maybe shouldn't (they tend to send patients later than they should).
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The UK is two weeks behind Italy. Uncanny :(
In the end we are all more alike than we think
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This discussion of the situation in Italy (where I have many nervous and frustrated friends and relatives) is not a simple partisan left vs right issue. I hope we can focus on working out where to go from here, and on the basis of scientific and economic realities, not simplistic, rigid allegiances to politicians, parties, or doctrines.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-center-lessons.html
Indeed.
Italy: another 793 deaths today alone.
The country’s experience shows that steps to isolate the coronavirus and limit people’s movement need to be put in place early, with absolute clarity, then strictly enforced.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-center-lessons.html?referringSource=articleShare
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https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/it-will-not-be-pretty-state-preparing-to-make-life-or-death-decisions-if-coronavirus-overwhelms-health-care-system/?fbclid=IwAR0WFW6A3gwQJzy4VdRT5QPuiqwldEFM5CwGsmrrd4Q4zVFpjd4NacpGvH0
I know New York had discussions about this and I already saw a couple of preliminary internal guides for 2 big hospitals in Michigan.
I heard Italy is doing some form of this even if they don't want to fully admit it.
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So the health industry is incompetent and this is their fault, good to know, you also seem very certain of it. Hopefully you won't feel as such when you need their services, it leads to mutual dissatisfaction.
Doesn't feel so good does it. Once again your reading ability is really quite lacking. When it comes to having the needed supplies, yes the health hospital industry is incompetent.
That Trump excuse is just lame, sorry; it would be funny but it's not. If anybody else would say that publicly there would be no excuse, but if Trump only says some people, ..., so he's not actually saying what he's saying if he's wrong, but he definitely meant it if he's right.
Nothing lame at all. just one more example where you read something and claim it says somthing different. TDS in action. Heaven forbid someome offers some hope that something MIGHT happen. You screwed this up the first time and you screwed it up again. Wanna try for strike three?
Either way, it's apparent that you don't understand how hospitals work in this market and what you want deep inside is something akin to Bernie's plan, you just don't want to admit it.
No I just want hospitals to do their jobs. Part of that is to make sure they have the suppiles needed. And not run to momma when they get caugth short for whatever reason.
Martin raised very valid concerns about your view of market. I will repeat it one more time:
- most hospitals have limited profitability these days, they run barely above 0 (why it's a different discussion).
- they cannot afford to buy too much supplies at times without severely disturbing their cash flow, if they do they go bankrupt. In many places they are the only hospital around so if they go down, you might be able to find a hospital to your liking many miles away and for increased cost (even if not directly, the insurance would go up). That's the reason many small hospitals are being bought by larger ones or they just close.
I won't speak for every hospital but the one right next to be can't seem to stop building. You dont do that if you are cash poor.
In any case, hospitals are screaming they dont have protective gear, you say yours is amoung them. You also say you don't have any c-19 patients at least as of a few days ago. That does not add up. Why are you out now and why is that the goverments problem. And then on top of this you continually complain that Trump made this worse? You simply make no sense.
Many don't have the resources to assess the global trends; they need that input if there should expect the unexpected, that's where the command center comes. And US administration had the data, just didn't bother sharing it.
None of you read the paper? Watch TV, listen to the radio? Read journals? And yet in early January the CDC told you. And continued to tell you. And continued to tell you. Did you bother to listen? Oh wait you can't do anything unless the bad orange man tells you...right. Got it.
Jan 1 word comes form China that there is a virus.
Jan 9 USCDC issues public travel notice to China because of virus
Jan 10 Notice of covid-19 was posted worldwide
Jan 20 Shanghai confirms its first case public
Jan 21 Korea and United States confirm first case of coronavirus. In the U.S., the first patient is a 35-year-old man in Seattle.
Jan. 21 – CDC opens COVID-19 Emergency Operations Center.
Jan 24 Lockdown begins in China PUBLIC DATA
Jan 25 Hong Kong declares health emergency PUBLIC
Jan 25 US starts the evac of Wuhan
Jan 27 Much of the world halts travel to China. US issues second travel ban PUBLIC
Jan 28 USCDC increases staff at airports PUBLIC
Jan 29 WHO announces The Pandemic Supply Chain Network Many countrys take stps to stop virus from entering PUBLIC
Jan 30 WHO declares Public Health Emergency of International Concern PUBLIC
Jan 30 CDC confirms first person-to-person spread of coronavirusan
Jan 31 US declares Public Health Emergency PUBLIC
Feb 2 CDC generates enough of the coronavirus specimen to distribute externally.
And on and on and on.
Yea, you were totally kept in the dark, no news was available you cound not do a thing until you heard it fron the bad orange man. Rigth ... got it.
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There are plenty of hospitals in the smaller cities without ICUs that send patients to us, and many of those that have ICUs maybe shouldn't (they tend to send patients later than they should).
I stand corrected.
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Doesn't feel so good does it. Once again your reading ability is really quite lacking. When it comes to having the needed supplies, yes the health hospital industry is incompetent.
Nothing lame at all. just one more example where you read something and claim it says somthing different. TDS in action. Heaven forbid someome offers some hope that something MIGHT happen. You screwed this up the first time and you screwed it up again. Wanna try for strike three?
You really have no idea what you are talking about but behave like an authority already. I don't fully understand the economics at play and I've been in this for a while.
Hospitals' job is not what you think it is despite me and others trying to point that out. Either way, you find that hospital that does what you think it should do and report back with your findings.
And hospitals are not running to mommy, but were screwed up and they had minimal margin for error. I explained this more than once.
Trump did screw up, multiple times. He should have just kept his mouth shut and listen to whose who knew what to do instead of ramblings in the press. It's a fact that even devout republicans colleagues agree with, because they've seen it. You on the other hand are so fired up to protect your vision of Trump that you read only what you want.
In any case, hospitals are screaming they dont have protective gear, you say yours is amoung them. You also say you don't have any c-19 patients at least as of a few days ago. That does not add up. Why are you out now and why is that the goverments problem. And then on top of this you continually complain that Trump made this worse? You simply make no sense.
I explained VERY clearly, it's not that hard to get unless you don't want to, which I think it's the case. The hospital has reserve to operate as usual. With the expected pandemic the need however will be much higher and it will be more difficult to resupply because of generalized demand. There are more and more cases around us, closer and closer. So it is quite expected we will be hit very soon and if we don't start rationing our supply now we will probably run out before we get new stuff.
None of you read the paper? Watch TV, listen to the radio? Read journals? And yet in early January the CDC told you. And continued to tell you. And continued to tell you. Did you bother to listen? Oh wait you can't do anything unless the bad orange man tells you...right. Got it.
Jan 1 word comes form China that there is a virus.
Jan 9 USCDC issues public travel notice to China because of virus
Jan 10 Notice of covid-19 was posted worldwide
Jan 20 Shanghai confirms its first case public
Jan 21 Korea and United States confirm first case of coronavirus. In the U.S., the first patient is a 35-year-old man in Seattle.
Jan. 21 – CDC opens COVID-19 Emergency Operations Center.
Jan 24 Lockdown begins in China PUBLIC DATA
Jan 25 Hong Kong declares health emergency PUBLIC
Jan 25 US starts the evac of Wuhan
Jan 27 Much of the world halts travel to China. US issues second travel ban PUBLIC
Jan 28 USCDC increases staff at airports PUBLIC
Jan 29 WHO announces The Pandemic Supply Chain Network Many countrys take stps to stop virus from entering PUBLIC
Jan 30 WHO declares Public Health Emergency of International Concern PUBLIC
Jan 30 CDC confirms first person-to-person spread of coronavirusan
Jan 31 US declares Public Health Emergency PUBLIC
Feb 2 CDC generates enough of the coronavirus specimen to distribute externally.
Yea, you were totally kept in the dark, no news was available you cound not do a thing until you heard it fron the bad orange man. Rigth ... got it.
Oh, the irony. Do you realize US already had a pandemic response center that was taken down 2 years ago by this administration?
CDC and all the contrary voices from the government were shut down whenever their narrative did not fit Trump's, and there is zero excuse here for that.
In the end this is going nowhere. I humored you with this debate but it's already taking too much time for no good reason than to argue on the internet where everybody is becoming an expert at anything within few keystrokes. It's already complicated, not all the answers are straightforward, but as I write a, you read b, and so on, it's just not worth it.
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Coronavirus frontline NHS doctor reveals patients are dying in agony amid panic in the eyes of hardened medics... and this is just the start (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8138581/Coronavirus-frontline-NHS-doctor-reveals-patients-dying-agony-just-start.html)
(https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/03/21/21/26249332-8138581-image-a-23_1584826939847.jpg)
It's heading our way. I already hear bad stories, not yet to this level but it's still early.
There is camaraderie spirit among the healthcare providers though, we share tips (there is at least a national Facebook group) about how we can do the best with what we have. At least this part is nice and so far everybody in my team is willing to cover extra and help each other. I don't need appreciation, just to be able to properly do my job in safe conditions, for the patients and for me.
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The situation is getting worse every day, so every new batch of test kits, masks and ventilators will help.
Italy has been out of control, 800 deaths and 6,500 new infections on Saturday is frightening. So are 7,300 new cases in USA.
OTOH, Taiwan handled the situation exemplary. Taiwan is a small island with 23 million people and thus relatively large population density. They detected their first case in January, but took quick actions with tests, sanitizers and masks. As a result, after two months, they have only 153 cases and 2 deaths. The stores and restaurants are still open, kids go to school, and there is no shortage of protective equipment and toilet paper.
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Humans deserve Covid-19 for their cruelty to animals.
Video: How wildlife trade is linked to Coronavirus (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TPpoJGYlW54&t=7s)
(https://media.treehugger.com/assets/images/2011/10/chickens-in-cages.jpg.653x0_q70_crop-smart.jpg)
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Humans deserve Covid-19 for their cruelty to animals.
Video: How wildlife trade is linked to Coronavirus (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TPpoJGYlW54&t=7s)
(https://media.treehugger.com/assets/images/2011/10/chickens-in-cages.jpg.653x0_q70_crop-smart.jpg)
And for turning our blind eyes to it. Problem is, not all are guilty.
I saw clips of young people lounging and partying on American beaches, and the official response to the idiots: it was far too polite. Buy hey, those kids were probably all stoned. Unfortunately, they all come with a vote tucked into their knickers.
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Doesn't feel so good does it. Once again your reading ability is really quite lacking. When it comes to having the needed supplies, yes the health hospital industry is incompetent.
Nothing lame at all. just one more example where you read something and claim it says somthing different. TDS in action. Heaven forbid someome offers some hope that something MIGHT happen. You screwed this up the first time and you screwed it up again. Wanna try for strike three?
No I just want hospitals to do their jobs. Part of that is to make sure they have the suppiles needed. And not run to momma when they get caugth short for whatever reason.
I won't speak for every hospital but the one right next to be can't seem to stop building. You dont do that if you are cash poor.
In any case, hospitals are screaming they dont have protective gear, you say yours is amoung them. You also say you don't have any c-19 patients at least as of a few days ago. That does not add up. Why are you out now and why is that the goverments problem. And then on top of this you continually complain that Trump made this worse? You simply make no sense.
None of you read the paper? Watch TV, listen to the radio? Read journals? And yet in early January the CDC told you. And continued to tell you. And continued to tell you. Did you bother to listen? Oh wait you can't do anything unless the bad orange man tells you...right. Got it.
Jan 1 word comes form China that there is a virus.
Jan 9 USCDC issues public travel notice to China because of virus
Jan 10 Notice of covid-19 was posted worldwide
Jan 20 Shanghai confirms its first case public
Jan 21 Korea and United States confirm first case of coronavirus. In the U.S., the first patient is a 35-year-old man in Seattle.
Jan. 21 – CDC opens COVID-19 Emergency Operations Center.
Jan 24 Lockdown begins in China PUBLIC DATA
Jan 25 Hong Kong declares health emergency PUBLIC
Jan 25 US starts the evac of Wuhan
Jan 27 Much of the world halts travel to China. US issues second travel ban PUBLIC
Jan 28 USCDC increases staff at airports PUBLIC
Jan 29 WHO announces The Pandemic Supply Chain Network Many countrys take stps to stop virus from entering PUBLIC
Jan 30 WHO declares Public Health Emergency of International Concern PUBLIC
Jan 30 CDC confirms first person-to-person spread of coronavirusan
Jan 31 US declares Public Health Emergency PUBLIC
Feb 2 CDC generates enough of the coronavirus specimen to distribute externally.
And on and on and on.
Yea, you were totally kept in the dark, no news was available you cound not do a thing until you heard it fron the bad orange man. Rigth ... got it.
It seems to me that you guys have gone down some rabbit-hole here... Let us be honest here - no-one in the world was prepared for this, it is the response that can be questioned.
Craig, according to your own list above you note that the first case in the US was detected on Jan 21. Your president declared the national emergency on the 13th of March ~53 days after your first case, am I right?
By way of example, and I understand that it is early days and things can (and will) change, here in South Africa we detected our first case on the 5th of March. Three days later our president declared a "state of disaster". As of yesterday we have 240 cases of which 223 were "imported". "Community Spread" cases have remained an 17 for about three days now...
So far, it appears that all South Africans are on the same page and I think it is because our government decided immediately to follow WHO protocols, our political parties have all united in their message and it seems that all that could be done has been done.
Please don't misunderstand me: I am not trying to say for one second that we have got this thing beat, I know this post can come back and bite me!
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Well, everyone in America is talking about lowering the curve, not stopping it like the Chinese. I don;t want to get this thing tomorrow or 6 months from now. Who are we kidding?
Before stopping it, you need to go over the peak, a plateau, and a descent phase. For the last 3 days, China has registered zero cases of "in country infections", 7 imported cases. They took their severe measures, and after 3 months are over the worst.
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Could be but it's a little too early to tell, the worst has yet to come in many places.
SARS-COV-2 seems to be less affected by climate: China>Europe>North America>South America>Africa. Sequentially. Africa is going to be a disaster, so is Brasil and South America in general, given the poor public health systems.
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All that demonstrates is lack of universally-agreed consensus. Numbers are not themselves sufficient. There was a famous paper a long time ago entitled "a hundred authors against Einstein": it didn't mean he was wrong.
Jeremy
Facts: isolating people is the only measure to abbate the spread. Numbers are sufficient, and countries should implement strict measures sooner rather than later. For decades scientists know how a virus with no population immunity spreads, the growth phase is exponential. Many will die due to lack of competence from politicians. As of yesterday, in Italy, government has not been able to enforce isolation rules, several factories are still working without any protection measures. they had 57,000 cases yesterday, overcame Chine in total deaths.
See also here:
https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/tip-iceberg-virologist-david-ho-bs-74-speaks-about-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR1EnpnOnZZ6D4xI2u9QGQldQZxWWGOt3l1OSPyb-pVCrZdqRe9lq8G-WAw
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I may be repeating myself, I can't remember, but I recommend that everyone listen to this Sam Harris podcast interview with Amesh Adalja, https://samharris.org/podcasts/191-early-thoughts-pandemic/ (https://samharris.org/podcasts/191-early-thoughts-pandemic/). It's a little over an hour long. It was recorded some time ago so is not current on numbers.
From the bio posted there, Dr. Adalja is an infectious disease specialist at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. His work is focused on emerging infectious disease, pandemic preparedness, and biosecurity....
He has interesting things to say about the severity, mortality, currently known possible remedies and expressed some thoughts about vaccines. The discussion is not highly technical.
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I may be repeating myself, I can't remember, but I recommend that everyone listen to this Sam Harris podcast interview with Amesh Adalja, https://samharris.org/podcasts/191-early-thoughts-pandemic/ (https://samharris.org/podcasts/191-early-thoughts-pandemic/). It's a little over an hour long. It was recorded some time ago so is not current on numbers.
From the bio posted there, Dr. Adalja is an infectious disease specialist at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. His work is focused on emerging infectious disease, pandemic preparedness, and biosecurity....
He has interesting things to say about the severity, mortality, currently known possible remedies and expressed some thoughts about vaccines. The discussion is not highly technical.
I listened to that. I recommend we all do.
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It's heading our way. I already hear bad stories, not yet to this level but it's still early.
There is camaraderie spirit among the healthcare providers though, we share tips (there is at least a national Facebook group) about how we can do the best with what we have. At least this part is nice and so far everybody in my team is willing to cover extra and help each other. I don't need appreciation, just to be able to properly do my job in safe conditions, for the patients and for me.
Where's that? It would be helpful especially under these conditions if everyone would add their country or city where they live to their profile page. Knowing where you are adds more meaning to your posts and is more helpful to the rest of us. Thanks.
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USA Michigan, I believe. It was mentioned several times on the forum.
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USA Michigan, I believe....
Kalamazoo, Michigan. A place where people who did something really bad in life get deported to, sort of Siberia. ;)
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It seems to me that you guys have gone down some rabbit-hole here... Let us be honest here - no-one in the world was prepared for this, it is the response that can be questioned.
Craig, according to your own list above you note that the first case in the US was detected on Jan 21. Your president declared the national emergency on the 13th of March ~53 days after your first case, am I right?
By way of example, and I understand that it is early days and things can (and will) change, here in South Africa we detected our first case on the 5th of March. Three days later our president declared a "state of disaster". As of yesterday we have 240 cases of which 223 were "imported". "Community Spread" cases have remained an 17 for about three days now...
So far, it appears that all South Africans are on the same page and I think it is because our government decided immediately to follow WHO protocols, our political parties have all united in their message and it seems that all that could be done has been done.
Please don't misunderstand me: I am not trying to say for one second that we have got this thing beat, I know this post can come back and bite me!
William, your South African president had the advantage of seeing two months of severe crisis in the rest of the world. For the countries that were hit early, they didn't have such forewarning so they didn't take such extreme measure as early. Count yourself lucky your country wasn't one of the early affected.
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USA Michigan, I believe. It was mentioned several times on the forum.
Who remembers? Also, what if someone missed that post or never read that thread. No, it better to have your location listed in your profile.
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Kalamazoo, Michigan. A place where people who did something really bad in life get deported to, sort of Siberia. ;)
Yup, he’s back! Hope you’re feeling better, Slobodan. Looking forward to the resumption of your infuriating posts.
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Who remembers? Also, what if someone missed that post or never read that thread. No, it better to have your location listed in your profile.
I fully recommend to read posts from the other contributors. Some of them contain useful information.
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I fully recommend to read posts from the other contributors. Some of them contain useful information.
Posts that say "Nearby me...." have no value if you don't where they are.
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Posts that say "Nearby me...." have no value if you don't where they are.
Nearby me, there is a pond with beavers, muskrats, occasional deer and many birds, but if I publicly mentioned its location, all the Instagrammers and Twitters would come here and ruin it.
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Nearby me, there is a pond with beavers, muskrats, occasional deer and many birds, but if I publicly mentioned its location, all the Instagrammers and Twitters would come here and ruin it.
How about Eastern Canada. That's enough info to let readers know enough without threatening the muskrats.
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William, your South African president had the advantage of seeing two months of severe crisis in the rest of the world. For the countries that were hit early, they didn't have such forewarning so they didn't take such extreme measure as early. Count yourself lucky your country wasn't one of the early affected.
I agree Alan 100%! We are expecting a further announcement this evening... lockdown?
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The US Strategic National Stockpile is a $7 billion inventory of emergency supplies and medicine kept in secret warehouses across the country. Maybe they're too secret.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/medical-providers-fearing-equipment-shortages-tap-secret-national/story?id=69583927
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How about Eastern Canada. That's enough info to let readers know enough without threatening the muskrats.
This is a big country, and about 3,000km across the Eastern Canada from the North Shore of Lake Superior to the East Coast. That would indeed fool those selfie takers.
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This is a big country, and about 3,000km across the Eastern Canada from the North Shore of Lake Superior to the East Coast. That would indeed fool those selfie takers.
Well, I'm from New Jersey. Of course the state is so small compared to Eastern Canada you could probably trip over me and the muskrats without hardly trying.
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The US Strategic National Stockpile is a $7 billion inventory of emergency supplies and medicine kept in secret warehouses across the country. Maybe they're too secret.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/medical-providers-fearing-equipment-shortages-tap-secret-national/story?id=69583927
This is no big secret. those of us who have been tangentially involved in this over the years are well aware of the stockpile and what is in it. It will only be of limited utility.
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Here's a photography-linked COVID-19 item. One of the drugs being tested in China for treatment, favipiravir, is made by none other than Fuji Film! It is approved in Japan for influenza treatment but nowhere else that I have found. The early Chinese data indicate that it is 70% effective in treating mild cases and does not seem to help those whose disease has seriously progressed.
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How about Eastern Canada. That's enough info to let readers know enough without threatening the muskrats.
I don't know about you, but Eastern Canada is sounding nice right now, especially the place below.
An island in a lake on a 2nd island in a 2nd lake on 3rd island sounds like a great place to hide out.
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Kalamazoo, Michigan. A place where people who did something really bad in life get deported to, sort of Siberia. ;)
Not really, it's quite a beautiful town and once home of one of the pioneering pharmaceutical companies, Upjohn. They did a lot of pioneering research in antibiotics and came up with the prednisone dose pack for various infections. I've been there a couple of times and it's quite photogenic. Pfizer purchased Upjohn some years ago and manufactures and packages some pharmaceuticals.
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This is no big secret. those of us who have been tangentially involved in this over the years are well aware of the stockpile and what is in it. It will only be of limited utility.
It was a secret to the person I responded too and most ordinary people. They don't know that the American government stockpiles all sorts of things including medical supplies, fighter jets, oil, gold, helium, etc. Of course, there has to be a limit to how much you can afford to store. I suppose in the furture, becasue of this virus, we'll store a lot more medical stuff. Problem is we always fight the last war. Then something new happens we're not prepared for.
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I don't know about you, but Eastern Canada is sounding nice right now, especially the place below.
An island in a lake on a 2nd island in a 2nd lake on 3rd island sounds like a great place to hide out.
I think you discovered where Les and the muskrats are living. Shhh. Don't tell anyone else. :)
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Who remembers? Also, what if someone missed that post or never read that thread. No, it better to have your location listed in your profile.
You’ve asked me directly where I was and replied to you, not that long ago.
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Kalamazoo, Michigan. A place where people who did something really bad in life get deported to, sort of Siberia. ;)
I don’t know or care why you do this. Is this how you truly are inside? I could have gone to big cities and bigger hospitals but there is always a compromise, Miami was actually my other main offer when I chose Kalamazoo and that despite having family there. I recall that when you had no job in Chicago you were more humble, but it appears memory is short.
I had this topic closed for half an hour because of the crap and then I thought maybe others will benefit. I was wrong, there are those few who just can’t control themselves.
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Not really, it's quite a beautiful town and once home of one of the pioneering pharmaceutical companies, Upjohn. They did a lot of pioneering research in antibiotics and came up with the prednisone dose pack for various infections. I've been there a couple of times and it's quite photogenic. Pfizer purchased Upjohn some years ago and manufactures and packages some pharmaceuticals.
It punches about its weight for sure but it remains a small city and I'm ok with it.
Pfizer is a big employer still but the local mammoth is Stryker. It probably funds an interesting concept of giving back to the community, Kalamazoo Promise.
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Who knew thoughts and prayers work for something else besides shootings: https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/03/21/coronavirus-whitmer-updates-order-assemblies-exempt-churches-penalty/2885395001/?fbclid=IwAR2Lk2bLEuOpz_IwBENh5AlSszQJurSK-C6oYgzbPhWwYsdpZpBw12DEotE
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I don't know about you, but Eastern Canada is sounding nice right now, especially the place below.
An island in a lake on a 2nd island in a 2nd lake on 3rd island sounds like a great place to hide out.
Not only that, but also Thousand Islands on the St. Lawrence river.
Canada has also the largest lake in the world - Lake Superior, and the largest island on an inland lake - Manitoulin Island (2766 sq km or 1068 sq. mi) in Lake Huron. In the Thousand Islands area, there are 1684 islands. To be counted as a real island there, the emergent land must be at least 1 square meter in size and support a minimum of two living trees. Some of the islands with a little cabin there are not much larger than that.
Then there is Georgian Bay, a large body of water in Lake Huron. Georgian Bay is almost as big as Lake Ontario. A friend of mine has a house on one decent sized island there, about ten kilometers from the mainland. The island is occupied by several summer residences and a few black bears.
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Not only that, but also Thousand Islands on the St. Lawrence river.
Canada has also the largest lake in the world - Lake Superior, and the largest island on an inland lake - Manitoulin Island (2766 sq km or 1068 sq. mi) in Lake Huron. In the Thousand Islands area, there are 1684 islands. To be counted as a real island there, the emergent land must be at least 1 square meter in size and support a minimum of two living trees. Some of the islands with a little cabin there are not much larger than that.
Then there is Georgian Bay, a large body of water in Lake Huron. Georgian Bay is almost as big as Lake Ontario. A friend of mine has a house on one decent sized island there, about ten kilometers from the mainland. The island is occupied by several summer residences and a few black bears.
In the interest of being accurate, Canada has a part of Lake Superior. After all Isle Royale belongs to the US.
I drove around Lake Huron from Toronto to Sault Ste Marie, very nice area. I would like to revisit those shores, quite scenic.
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Not only that, but also Thousand Islands on the St. Lawrence river.
Canada has also the largest lake in the world - Lake Superior, and the largest island on an inland lake - Manitoulin Island (2766 sq km or 1068 sq. mi) in Lake Huron. In the Thousand Islands area, there are 1684 islands. To be counted as a real island there, the emergent land must be at least 1 square meter in size and support a minimum of two living trees. Some of the islands with a little cabin there are not much larger than that.
Then there is Georgian Bay, a large body of water in Lake Huron. Georgian Bay is almost as big as Lake Ontario. A friend of mine has a house on one decent sized island there, about ten kilometers from the mainland. The island is occupied by several summer residences and a few black bears.
Hmmm.... in the current clime I think I'd keep the bears but not the other residences. As long as the virus doesn't strike, living alone has its plusses. But, if one needs help, then that's a different thing altogether.
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In the interest of being accurate, Canada has a part of Lake Superior. After all Isle Royale belongs to the US.
I drove around Lake Huron from Toronto to Sault Ste Marie, very nice area. I would like to revisit those shores, quite scenic.
This is off-topic I guess, but both northern and southern Georgian Bay are scenic places to visit. The northern loop is much more rugged, quite a few provincial parks with day access permits that are not expensive. There are many maintained trails, and also campgrounds if you're into that. Plan on 4-5 days for each leg. The ferry ride from Manitoulin to Tobermory is fun, complete with a lecture about the underwater geology of the area when I took it.
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This is off-topic I guess, but both northern and southern Georgian Bay are scenic places to visit. The northern loop is much more rugged, quite a few provincial parks with day access permits that are not expensive. There are many maintained trails, and also campgrounds if you're into that. Plan on 4-5 days for each leg. The ferry ride from Manitoulin to Tobermory is fun, complete with a lecture about the underwater geology of the area when I took it.
I didn't have much time when I was there but even from the car it looked good enough to make me want to come back. I should probably get to the Michigan's side of Huron too, besides Mackinaw Island I didn't see it despite being in Michigan for almost 7 years now. I heard it's a good place to kayak also.
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I didn't have much time when I was there but even from the car it looked good enough to make me want to come back. I should probably get to the Michigan's side of Huron too, besides Mackinaw Island I didn't see it despite being in Michigan for almost 7 years now. I heard it's a good place to kayak also.
I'm not a water sports enthusiast but I'm told that Georgian Bay has calm waters, and the area around Tobermory is popular with scuba divers.
If you like riding trains, this is a fun day trip and not that far away http://www.agawatrain.com (http://www.agawatrain.com).
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So when you get your job back after this is over, assuming you do, your salary won't be worth anything as the American dollar's value won't be worth anything. Neither will my Social Security and Pension checks or savings or 401K. Pumping money into the economy is just going to create inflation. Currency quantity is suppose to follow production not be created when production is going down. That just makes it worthless. Republican politicians are just as bad as Democrat politicians. They may save the patient but kill the economy.
I still wonder if this all part of China's plan to become the reserve currency of the world.
Virus aid bill includes $3,000 for families, $4 trillion liquidity for Fed: Mnuchin
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-mnuchin/virus-aid-bill-includes-3000-for-families-4-trillion-liquidity-for-fed-mnuchin-idUSKBN2190LL
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In the interest of being accurate, Canada has a part of Lake Superior. After all Isle Royale belongs to the US.
I drove around Lake Huron from Toronto to Sault Ste Marie, very nice area. I would like to revisit those shores, quite scenic.
Isle Royale used to have a healthy herd of woodland caribou, but one winter a pack of wolves moved in over an ice bridge, and they gradually killed all caribou.
Three years ago, I drove from Toronto through Michigan to Sault Ste Marie and caught beautiful sunset scenes in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. From Ste Sault Marie, I drove north to the Lake Superior Park which is an amazing area, and then returned to Toronto on the Canadian side. A few years before that, I drove solo to the north shore of Lake Superior and documented it on my blog: https://advantica.wordpress.com/2013/10/01/drive-to-lake-superior/
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Isle Royale used to have a healthy herd of woodland caribou, but one winter a pack of wolves moved in over an ice bridge, and they gradually killed all caribou.
Three years ago, I drove from Toronto through Michigan to Sault Ste Marie and caught beautiful sunset scenes in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. From Ste Sault Marie, I drove north to the Lake Superior Park which is an amazing area, and then returned to Toronto on the Canadian side. A few years before that, I drove solo to the north shore of Lake Superior and documented it on my blog: https://advantica.wordpress.com/2013/10/01/drive-to-lake-superior/
I think your info is inaccurate:
https://www.nps.gov/isro/learn/nature/wolves.htm
https://www.npca.org/advocacy/37-wolves-at-isle-royale
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I'm not a water sports enthusiast but I'm told that Georgian Bay has calm waters, and the area around Tobermory is popular with scuba divers.
If you like riding trains, this is a fun day trip and not that far away http://www.agawatrain.com (http://www.agawatrain.com).
Robert, I know Georgian Bay quite well. The southern side (around Tobermory) is very different from the northern side. Tobermory has very clear (and cold) water and it is popular with hikers, beach lovers (rocky beaches) and divers. The east side of the Tobermory Peninsula has calmer water, protected from the prevailing west winds.
However, IMO, the most scenic part is the northeastern part between Parry Sound and Killarney. In calm water, this area with many islands and protected coves is an absolute pleasure for paddling, especially in the morning, but usually by the afternoon the west winds create large waves and whitecaps which can be difficult and dangerous for paddling, so you have to carefully choose a calm time period with low winds. On one occasion, I drove the 400km distance from Toronto to Killarney only to find the winds and waves too dangerous for paddling to the islands, and had to change my plans to interior hiking.
Here are some of my images from the Georgian Bay area: https://fineartamerica.com/profiles/les-palenik?tab=artworkgalleries&artworkgalleryid=188486
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So when you get your job back after this is over, assuming you do, your salary won't be worth anything as the American dollar's value won't be worth anything. Neither will my Social Security and Pension checks or savings or 401K. Pumping money into the economy is just going to create inflation. Currency quantity is suppose to follow production not be created when production is going down. That just makes it worthless. Republican politicians are just as bad as Democrat politicians. They may save the patient but kill the economy.
I still wonder if this all part of China's plan to become the reserve currency of the world.
Virus aid bill includes $3,000 for families, $4 trillion liquidity for Fed: Mnuchin
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-mnuchin/virus-aid-bill-includes-3000-for-families-4-trillion-liquidity-for-fed-mnuchin-idUSKBN2190LL
For fun the other day I travelled down a couple of wild-ride interweb rabbit holes. In one, they blamed the outbreak on the Chinese who developed the virus and unleashed it to destroy the American economy, despite the fact that they want/need American buyers of their exports. In another rabbit hole, they blamed the outbreak on special USA government labs that produced the virus to decimate the Chinese economy, despite the fact that they would also harm themselves. There were reasons given by both camps why they decided to proceed despite the collateral self-damage, but I didn't read any of that because I haven't finished building my Faraday cage yet and only read that kind of stuff when I'm safely inside it.
In the world of physics, an electron and a positron (aka anti-electron) pair will annihilate each other in a flash of "light". If the interweb were like physics, those two groups would meet up and disappear. But the interweb isn't like that, instead both groups grow in size. I wonder if they are as big in number as the flat earth believers. I would like to see a large Venn diagram of all these groups to see how much they overlap.
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Robert, I know Georgian Bay quite well. The southern side (around Tobermory) is very different from the northern side. Tobermory has very clear (and cold) water and it is popular with hikers, beach lovers (rocky beaches) and divers. The east side of the Tobermory Peninsula has calmer water, protected from the prevailing west winds.
However, IMO, the most scenic part is the northeastern part between Parry Sound and Killarney. In calm water, this area with many islands and protected coves is an absolute pleasure for paddling, especially in the morning, but usually by the afternoon the west winds create large waves and whitecaps which can be difficult and dangerous for paddling, so you have to carefully choose a calm time period with low winds. On one occasion, I drove the 400km distance from Toronto to Killarney only to find the winds and waves too dangerous for paddling to the islands, and had to change my plans to interior hiking.
Here are some of my images from the Georgian Bay area: https://fineartamerica.com/profiles/les-palenik?tab=artworkgalleries&artworkgalleryid=188486
Thank you, beautiful work. We were in Sudbury, North Bay, Parry Sound, Killarney and Killbear parks last autumn. The weather did not cooperate and I wasn't happy with my most of my pics but posted them anyway (https://robertroaldi.zenfolio.com/p419962670 (https://robertroaldi.zenfolio.com/p419962670)). My wife is a painter and we were there mostly to get raw material for her. We only spent one afternoon in Killarney and another in Kilbear. I had been to North Bay and Parry Sound a few times in a previous life when I did a lot of marshalling at car rallies, when I spent a lot of time down MNR gravel roads fighting off insects with a stopwatch in my hand.
A friend from Sudbury told me that there was a group of students from Killarney village at his high school. The poor kids spent 90 min each way to school every day, and much longer in winter. That must be a long white knuckle ride down a deserted winter road during a Georgian Bay lake effect blizzard.
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It's called folie a plusieurs, once they go down that path they lose perspective because the people/places they frequent share similar thoughts, and when they hear something contradictory they are very good at excuses on why the others are wrong.
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For fun the other day I travelled down a couple of wild-ride interweb rabbit holes. In one, they blamed the outbreak on the Chinese who developed the virus and unleashed it to destroy the American economy, despite the fact that they want/need American buyers of their exports. In another rabbit hole, they blamed the outbreak on special USA government labs that produced the virus to decimate the Chinese economy, despite the fact that they would also harm themselves. There were reasons given by both camps why they decided to proceed despite the collateral self-damage, but I didn't read any of that because I haven't finished building my Faraday cage yet and only read that kind of stuff when I'm safely inside it.
In the world of physics, an electron and a positron (aka anti-electron) pair will annihilate each other in a flash of "light". If the interweb were like physics, those two groups would meet up and disappear. But the interweb isn't like that, instead both groups grow in size. I wonder if they are as big in number as the flat earth believers. I would like to see a large Venn diagram of all these groups to see how much they overlap.
It's called folie a plusieurs, once they go down that path they lose perspective because the people/places they frequent share similar thoughts, and when they hear something contradictory they are very good at excuses on why the others are wrong.
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I think your info is inaccurate:
https://www.nps.gov/isro/learn/nature/wolves.htm
https://www.npca.org/advocacy/37-wolves-at-isle-royale
which part of the info is inaccurate?
AFAIK, all caribou on Isle Royale have been killed by the wolves in the last century, which eventually led also to the demise of the wolves. The last caribou was seen on the island in 1925. However, in the recent years, the moose moved in and prospered, but that is an entirely different animal. In the recent years, the U.S. National Park Service tried to reintroduce wolves to the island from Minnesota and Ontario, with mixed results. It seems that the latest attempts to bring in the wolves from Canadian Michipicoten island were more successful, most likely because those wolves are larger and used to harsher conditions and moose hunting.
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which part of the info is inaccurate?
AFAIK, all caribou on Isle Royale have been killed by the wolves in the last century, which eventually led also to the demise of the wolves. The last caribou was seen on the island in 1925. However, in the recent years, the moose moved in and prospered, but that is an entirely different animal. In the recent years, the U.S. National Park Service tried to reintroduce wolves to the island from Minnesota and Ontario, with mixed results. It seems that the latest attempts to bring in the wolves from Canadian Michipicoten island were more successful, most likely because those wolves are larger and used to harsher conditions and moose hunting.
When I read it in my mind it sounded like a recent event and caribou=moose if I don't refresh my knowledge on the subject on a regular basis :D
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It's called folie a plusieurs, once they go down that path they lose perspective because the people/places they frequent share similar thoughts, and when they hear something contradictory they are very good at excuses on why the others are wrong.
Merci. "Folie à plusieurs", mon épouse aimera bien ça.
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I don’t know or care why you do this. Is this how you truly are inside? I could have gone to big cities and bigger hospitals but there is always a compromise, Miami was actually my other main offer when I chose Kalamazoo and that despite having family there. I recall that when you had no job in Chicago you were more humble, but it appears memory is short.
I had this topic closed for half an hour because of the crap and then I thought maybe others will benefit. I was wrong, there are those few who just can’t control themselves.
Gee, man, relax.
Between Chicago and Miami, I spent a year and and a half in Warsaw, Indiana, so-called Orthopaedics Capital of the world, working for Johnson & Johnson. If anything, the comment was self-deprecating, given that Warsaw is about 1/5 of the Kalamazoo size.
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Isle Royale used to have a healthy herd of woodland caribou, but one winter a pack of wolves moved in over an ice bridge, and they gradually killed all caribou.
I did more reading on the subject as I was unfamiliar with the more remote history. So far I didn't find that wolves caused the disappearance of the caribous, but more that it was secondary to human activities (same for the lynx). Do you have any specific sources?
They say the caribous have been there for 3500 years but I can't figure it out how wolves didn't cross the ice at all in all those years; apparently coyotes were present for a while before the wolves came.
I'm a little more familiar with the current state because I'm planning to do some backpacking there at some point in the future.
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Gee, man, relax.
Between Chicago and Miami, I spent a year and and a half in Warsaw, Indiana, so-called Orthopaedics Capital of the world, working for Johnson & Johnson. If anything, the comment was self-deprecating, given that Warsaw is about 1/5 of the Kalamazoo size.
In the current state of affairs here my defense mechanism is boosted. I'll do some photography to relax and be less snappy.
The current environment is not friendly but more like trying to prove your superiority by demeaning the others.
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For fun the other day I travelled down a couple of wild-ride interweb rabbit holes. In one, they blamed the outbreak on the Chinese who developed the virus and unleashed it to destroy the American economy, despite the fact that they want/need American buyers of their exports. In another rabbit hole, they blamed the outbreak on special USA government labs that produced the virus to decimate the Chinese economy, despite the fact that they would also harm themselves. There were reasons given by both camps why they decided to proceed despite the collateral self-damage, but I didn't read any of that because I haven't finished building my Faraday cage yet and only read that kind of stuff when I'm safely inside it.
In the world of physics, an electron and a positron (aka anti-electron) pair will annihilate each other in a flash of "light". If the interweb were like physics, those two groups would meet up and disappear. But the interweb isn't like that, instead both groups grow in size. I wonder if they are as big in number as the flat earth believers. I would like to see a large Venn diagram of all these groups to see how much they overlap.
Could you send me the blueprints for that Faraday cage? :)
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I did more reading on the subject as I was unfamiliar with the more remote history. So far I didn't find that wolves caused the disappearance of the caribous, but more that it was secondary to human activities (same for the lynx). Do you have any specific sources?
They say the caribous have been there for 3500 years but I can't figure it out how wolves didn't cross the ice at all in all those years; apparently coyotes were present for a while before the wolves came.
I'm a little more familiar with the current state because I'm planning to do some backpacking there at some point in the future.
There are more articles on the subject from the recent years and most of them are more sympathetic towards wolves than caribous. The wolf-moose project of Isle Royale is the longest running study of any predator-prey system in the world, started in 1958, and AFAIK it is still ongoing research.
I remember the more recent caribou decline due to the wolf predation on the Michipicoten and Slate islands in Canada and assumed the Isle Royale experienced a similar outcome with the same pattern. No doubt, hunting contributed to the extermination of caribou, but for the wolves the caribou were an easy target, so the caribou had two enemies there.
Could have been also some virus. ;)
In the press, the loss of Isle Royale’s wolves is largely portrayed as a tragedy, because the extirpation of wolves will bring to an end a famed, long-running, predator-prey study. But what if we chose to see the loss of the island’s wolves as a blessing in disguise, providing an opportunity to restore a native species: the woodland caribou. The diets of moose and caribou differ. Moose are browsers, while caribou exist on lichens and moss. Even if moose over-browse Isle Royale, caribou would still have food and habitat.
To the best of our knowledge, caribou long existed on the island prior to being hunted out and replaced with moose. Given the cold, year-round temperatures of Lake Superior and the chilling effect they have on the island’s climate, it is possible caribou could be restored to Isle Royale even in the face of climate change. If successful, these animals would become the only resident caribou population in the Lower 48. I haven’t seen anything to indicate such a strategy has been contemplated or presented to the public.
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If woodland caribou are extirpated from the North Shore, they’ll take that wildness with them. And Lake Superior will be pristine no more.
https://northernwilds.com/isle-royale-save-lake-superiors-native-caribou/
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Could you send me the blueprints for that Faraday cage? :)
Well, first you need to go to Costco and buy a lot of aluminum foil. I mean, REALLY a lot. No point building one unless you can fit a lazy boy inside it. May as well be comfy, I say.
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I did more reading on the subject as I was unfamiliar with the more remote history. So far I didn't find that wolves caused the disappearance of the caribous, but more that it was secondary to human activities (same for the lynx). Do you have any specific sources?
They say the caribous have been there for 3500 years but I can't figure it out how wolves didn't cross the ice at all in all those years; apparently coyotes were present for a while before the wolves came.
I'm a little more familiar with the current state because I'm planning to do some backpacking there at some point in the future.
Don't caribou travel long distances year to year? They wouldn't stay on the island all year, just pass through from time to time. I didn't think they were territorial like that. It's possible their regular movements were disrupted as they stopped traveling through the island.
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Don't caribou travel long distances year to year? They wouldn't stay on the island all year, just pass through from time to time. I didn't think they were territorial like that. It's possible their regular movements were disrupted as they stopped traveling through the island.
Alan, the island caribou stayed on the islands in the summer and in the winter. What are you thinking about are the migrating caribous in Alaska, Canadian North and in Siberia.
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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The lockdown affecting large segments of the American public to try to curb the spread of the coronavirus is likely to last 10 to 12 weeks, or until early June, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Sunday.
https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2020-03-22/us-coronavirus-lockdown-to-last-10-12-weeks-top-trump-official-says
Thats a long time. Will be interesting to see what getss said at the press conference today, and its running really late.
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Alan, the island caribou stayed on the islands in the summer and in the winter. What are you thinking about are the migrating caribous in Alaska, Canadian North and in Siberia.
More BS from the boss, this time about ventilators.
https://apnews.com/17868870ddfc526c6c7f454d651b6d7f
I am not sure why lying to the American people is reassuring. I know, the AP is fake news.
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More BS from the boss, this time about ventilators.
https://apnews.com/17868870ddfc526c6c7f454d651b6d7f
I am not sure why lying to the American people is reassuring. I know, the AP is fake news.
That’s a really stupid fact check. You fell for it? I didn’t see a single lie in his statement. Wanna try again?
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I've been thinking that you'd be better off getting sick now while they have ventilators and hospital beds rather than later when there's nothing left. Pay now or pay later. It always seem to cost more later.
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I've been thinking that you'd be better off getting sick now while they have ventilators and hospital beds rather than later when there's nothing left. Pay now or pay later. It always seem to cost more later.
Many of those on the vents still die.
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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The lockdown affecting large segments of the American public to try to curb the spread of the coronavirus is likely to last 10 to 12 weeks, or until early June, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Sunday.
https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2020-03-22/us-coronavirus-lockdown-to-last-10-12-weeks-top-trump-official-says
Thats a long time. Will be interesting to see what getss said at the press conference today, and its running really late.
I very much doubt this. Month more max, and then it is protect the elderly and sick. Everyone else gets back to work.
It just is not possible to shut down the US economy that long. I know I wont be staying in.
We are already trying to cash in on this. With all rental studios and equipment rental houses down, having a home studio and owning all of your equipment starts to be a great benefit in getting work. Calls are already going out from ad firms, even those in NYC, to see who can shoot product and who has the equipment and space to do so without needing to rent.
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I've been thinking that you'd be better off getting sick now while they have ventilators and hospital beds rather than later when there's nothing left. Pay now or pay later. It always seem to cost more later.
There are now several companies gearing up to start manufacturing of ventilators. This could become a rather large industry.
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Many of those on the vents still die.
Better to have one now than none later.
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I very much doubt this. Month more max, and then it is protect the elderly and sick. Everyone else gets back to work.
It just is not possible to shut down the US economy that long. I know I wont be staying in.
We are already trying to cash in on this. With all rental studios and equipment rental houses down, having a home studio and owning all of your equipment starts to be a great benefit in getting work. Calls are already going out from ad firms, even those in NYC, to see who can shoot product and who has the equipment and space to do so without needing to rent.
Well, we will just have to wait and see. I can't see the future so I'll just sit back and watch.
I never understood the concept of being a professiobnal photographer and needing to rent just to work. It must work fine in some markets but in my little corner of the world if you told the client you needed to rent the gear for the shoot and, oh btw, I'm going to bill you for it as well the laughter would never stop.
Today renting space when needed is more accepted, since 2008 wiped out most of the studio space in the area. You need at least 5000 sq ft of drive in space and thats a lot of overhead. The problem is there is no dedicated rental space available o we rent empty warehouses, bays in RV storage facilities etc. Not a lot of small product stuff being done here but most of the guys I know have enough personal space to do so it the need came up. Its been years since I shot small product, but I enjoyed it when I had my studio.
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Better to have one now than none later.
IF you get infected. Plus I think you are a little late to the party. Plus there might be a treatment if you get infected later.
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There are now several companies gearing up to start manufacturing of ventilators. This could become a rather large industry.
If they can recoup the investment before the demand goes down. Right we don't have enough ventilators because there aren't enough healthcare providers and ICU beds to use them. This won't change anytime soon.
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IF you get infected. Plus I think you are a little late to the party. Plus there might be a treatment if you get infected later.
Well, I would prefer to not get sick at all. We're all in God's hands.
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I was looking for face masks and forgetaboutit. Most are just dust masks, not having the high virus protection. Those are all backordered. Paper products, a lot of stuff, all out of stock. My wife did get Aloe and alcohol from a supermarket to make our own Purell. I'll have to mix it up and get a dispenser.
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I've been thinking that you'd be better off getting sick now while they have ventilators and hospital beds rather than later when there's nothing left. Pay now or pay later. It always seem to cost more later.
Who says you can't get nailed twice by the virus?
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I was looking for face masks and forgetaboutit. Most are just dust masks, not having the high virus protection. Those are all backordered. Paper products, a lot of stuff, all out of stock. My wife did get Aloe and alcohol from a supermarket to make our own Purell. I'll have to mix it up and get a dispenser.
Dr. Oz is saying that as a good citizen, you shouldn't be buying masks now and rather keep them for the medical staff.
Good interview with Andy Serwer (25 minutes) - starts at 1:05
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/dr-mehmet-oz-host-dr-110000047.html
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I very much doubt this. Month more max, and then it is protect the elderly and sick. Everyone else gets back to work.
It just is not possible to shut down the US economy that long. I know I wont be staying in.
A couple of day’s ago you were saying max two weeks....... I see you’re beginning to realise the reality.
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A couple of day’s ago you were saying max two weeks....... I see you’re beginning to realise the reality.
Nope.
It just ain't happening. At a certain point, the cost of lives from shutting the economy will be greater then those whom could die from the virus. Think about the suicides and drug overdoes that will come from this shut down and loss of jobs.
Anyway, many of the architects and ad people are still working. I will be hustling this week regardless of what goes down.
I can write proposals, just like architects are doing right now. I can also schedule exterior one shoots, and get interiors on the books in the coming weeks.
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Well, we will just have to wait and see. I can't see the future so I'll just sit back and watch.
I never understood the concept of being a professiobnal photographer and needing to rent just to work. It must work fine in some markets but in my little corner of the world if you told the client you needed to rent the gear for the shoot and, oh btw, I'm going to bill you for it as well the laughter would never stop.
Today renting space when needed is more accepted, since 2008 wiped out most of the studio space in the area. You need at least 5000 sq ft of drive in space and thats a lot of overhead. The problem is there is no dedicated rental space available o we rent empty warehouses, bays in RV storage facilities etc. Not a lot of small product stuff being done here but most of the guys I know have enough personal space to do so it the need came up. Its been years since I shot small product, but I enjoyed it when I had my studio.
At $12K to $15K a month, studio space in Manhattan is pricey to own all for yourself.
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Who says you can't get nailed twice by the virus?
Do they let you keep the ventilator the first time so you have it handy?
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Do they let you keep the ventilator the first time so you have it handy?
Only the rich that are buying their own personal ventilator. The rest of us...well we all get a spot in the hallway.
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The mechanics of a ventilator are probably not that complicated but for it to be more than a simple pump it needs proper programming/software. That takes time, not to mention it has to be very reliable. This is not the place to cut corners.
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At $12K to $15K a month, studio space in Manhattan is pricey to own all for yourself.
After this things ends, they'll be a lot of empty storefronts available. When I had a business in NYC, I rented a storefront in Long Island City Queens off the main drag of Queens Plaza for those familiar with the area. So it was not expensive but very convenient for transportation and ten minutes from midtown Manhattan . Owned by a Korean who was hungry. Turned it into an office on the first floor and had a shop and storage area in the basement. We didn't get many visitors as we were a specialty construction contractor. My next door neighbor was a furniture maker and carpenter . Every year, my secretary would take one day off in Spring when the flying ants would come out in swarms in our office usually in the morning. She'd scream and leave for the day. When the landlord tried to make me pay for the exterminator he had to hire, I told him to go shove it and take it out on the guy next door.
In any case, I think there's going to be lots of space available: storefronts, mini malls, offices. People are going to walk away from the leases leaving landlords in the lurch with few new customers looking to rent. This virus is going to cause a mess, probably a recession that will take awhile to come back. I'm glad I'm retired.
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The mechanics of a ventilator are probably not that complicated but for it to be more than a simple pump it needs proper programming/software. That takes time, not to mention it has to be very reliable. This is not the place to cut corners.
And the government is going to get gouged. I was listening to NYS Governor Cuomo. He's complaining that $.75 masks are running $7 each or ten times the amount they were paying. He said each of the States are competing with each other driving the prices higher. He wants the Feds to buy it figuring they can make a better deal as a single buyer. Well, any deal will be better if the can get the Feds to pay for it and NYS doesn't. :)
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On the latest Freakonomcs podcast, some economists speculate on the long-term effects os social isolation, https://freakonomics.com/podcast/covid-19-effects/ (https://freakonomics.com/podcast/covid-19-effects/).
One surprising tidbit was the long-term health benefits of the decrease in pollution in Beijing during the Olympics there. Even though the pollution decrease was temporary, the levels eventually returned to pre-Olympic levels, they found some lasting health benefits compared to other Chinese cities, especially among children, if I remember that detail correctly. I was driving at the time.
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Now, that Harvey Weinstein tested positive in jail, where can you feel safe?
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On the latest Freakonomcs podcast, some economists speculate on the long-term effects os social isolation, https://freakonomics.com/podcast/covid-19-effects/ (https://freakonomics.com/podcast/covid-19-effects/).
One surprising tidbit was the long-term health benefits of the decrease in pollution in Beijing during the Olympics there. Even though the pollution decrease was temporary, the levels eventually returned to pre-Olympic levels, they found some lasting health benefits compared to other Chinese cities, especially among children, if I remember that detail correctly. I was driving at the time.
How many people could starve, blow their brains out, and jump out of windows if there's a total economic collapse? The stock market may capitulate this week. It went through a limit down futures crash on Sunday. Sure pollution will no longer be a problem nor will CO2 and global warming. But the ancillary negative effects are going to be catastrophic. I just read that St. Louis Fed President James Bullard predicts the US GDP may be 50% with an unemployment rate of 30%, worse than the great depression. People will not be able to survive the economic issues regardless of what's going on medically. Wealth, assets, savings, currency value, are all going to get wiped out. If the government prints to make everyone whole, we'll become Argentina or Zimbabwe or Germany under the Kaiser with wheelbarrows of worthless paper money. What do others here who are in business figure what's going to happen? How are you planning to survive this thing?
https://www.ccn.com/dow-futures-crash-1000-points-as-feds-bullard-cites-50-u-s-gdp/
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How many people could starve, blow their brains out, and jump out of windows if there's a total economic collapse? The stock market may capitulate this week. It went through a limit down futures crash on Sunday. Sure pollution will no longer be a problem nor will CO2 and global warming. But the ancillary negative effects are going to be catastrophic. I just read that St. Louis Fed President James Bullard predicts the US GDP may be 50% with an unemployment rate of 30%, worse than the great depression. People will not be able to survive the economic issues regardless of what's going on medically. Wealth, assets, savings, currency value, are all going to get wiped out. If the government prints to make everyone whole, we'll become Argentina or Zimbabwe or Germany under the Kaiser with wheelbarrows of worthless paper money. What do others here who are in business figure what's going to happen? How are you planning to survive this thing?
https://www.ccn.com/dow-futures-crash-1000-points-as-feds-bullard-cites-50-u-s-gdp/
What good is having my business survive if I catch this thing and it kills me. Choose your poison. Live or keep the economy going and maybe die. I’ve made my choice and I’ll do whatever I can do to not get coved-19.
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What good is having my business survive if I catch this thing and it kills me. Choose your poison. Live or keep the economy going and maybe die. I’ve made my choice and I’ll do whatever I can do to not get coved-19.
I'm 75 with medical issues, so I certainly understand. It's a terrible conundrum. Gov Cuomo of NY said that 40-80% of the people are going to get the virus. Who's he been speaking too? Fauci? We're only flattening out the curve so hospitals can handle it, assuming they can and assuming he's right that it won't be stopped. So we're not hiding from the disease, only ducking for now. I hope the governor is wrong. Let's hope Spring stops it. Meanwhile, I'll make hand sanitizer tomorrow morning with some alcohol and aloe and lemon drops my wife somehow found shopping. I'm glad I don't have to make payroll.
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This will be worse, much worse. It has yet to reach a peak in the places affected first, and the bulk is yet to come. I’m afraid in most places the containment came too late, now it only slows it down.
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This will be worse, much worse. It has yet to reach a peak in the places affected first, and the bulk is yet to come. I’m afraid in most places the containment came too late, now it only slows it down.
Unfortunately, it's not slowing down yet.
look at the curves below:
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If they can recoup the investment before the demand goes down. Right we don't have enough ventilators because there aren't enough healthcare providers and ICU beds to use them. This won't change anytime soon.
China is sending medical supplies to Europe, including ventilators, and including my country (Portugal) for free. So not everybody is thinking "profit" right now.
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A couple of day’s ago you were saying max two weeks....... I see you’re beginning to realise the reality.
In Europe the shutdown will be until June. With the exception of the really necessary industries - mostly supply of foods and medicine.
Ony yesterday did Italy closed down their non-necessary industries in the whole country. Too late. Sometimes, other values other than economy are more important. In Portugal, the finance minister, who very recently was buffooning about deficit zero, and even superavit, has disapeared from the news...
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Who says you can't get nailed twice by the virus?
Not only that, but because the first time the virus will weaken your body, and when it comes back the second time, it will hit much harder.
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How many people could starve, blow their brains out, and jump out of windows if there's a total economic collapse? The stock market may capitulate this week. It went through a limit down futures crash on Sunday. Sure pollution will no longer be a problem nor will CO2 and global warming. But the ancillary negative effects are going to be catastrophic. I just read that St. Louis Fed President James Bullard predicts the US GDP may be 50% with an unemployment rate of 30%, worse than the great depression. People will not be able to survive the economic issues regardless of what's going on medically. Wealth, assets, savings, currency value, are all going to get wiped out. If the government prints to make everyone whole, we'll become Argentina or Zimbabwe or Germany under the Kaiser with wheelbarrows of worthless paper money. What do others here who are in business figure what's going to happen? How are you planning to survive this thing?
https://www.ccn.com/dow-futures-crash-1000-points-as-feds-bullard-cites-50-u-s-gdp/
Alan, this does not need to be the end of civilisation. In a way, the governments are in complete control of the problem. If it was so desired - they could just let the virus rip through society in a few months and around 4% of the population would die - mostly older economically unproductive people. Their wealth would be passed on to their offspring to spend. Then everyone could carry on as normal, but with a far fewer elderly and sick people to support. But, quite rightly, that is not the course of action taken and so we all have to buckle down and wait. Yes the major economies are going to take a huge hit - and nobody likes the unknown. But once we are through the worst and a vaccine is developed, life will carry on - hopefully we will be better people (as in society) because of it.
Regarding your first sentence about how many will starve, blow their brains out, or jump from windows - I'm glad to say that at least in the UK the first two are highly unlikely as nobody will be allowed to starve and without guns nobody will be going around shooting themselves or anyone else. For those two reasons alone I'm glad not to be living in the USA. I do hope for all your sakes that the majority of good people there will prevail.
Jim
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Alan, this does not need to be the end of civilisation. In a way, the governments are in complete control of the problem. If it was so desired - they could just let the virus rip through society in a few months and around 4% of the population would die - mostly older economically unproductive people. Their wealth would be passed on to their offspring to spend. Then everyone could carry on as normal, but with a far fewer elderly and sick people to support. But, quite rightly, that is not the course of action taken and so we all have to buckle down and wait. Yes the major economies are going to take a huge hit - and nobody likes the unknown. But once we are through the worst and a vaccine is developed, life will carry on - hopefully we will be better people (as in society) because of it.
Regarding your first sentence about how many will starve, blow their brains out, or jump from windows - I'm glad to say that at least in the UK the first two are highly unlikely as nobody will be allowed to starve and without guns nobody will be going around shooting themselves or anyone else. For those two reasons alone I'm glad not to be living in the USA. I do hope for all your sakes that the majority of good people there will prevail.
Jim
This is what concerns me.
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What good is having my business survive if I catch this thing and it kills me. Choose your poison. Live or keep the economy going and maybe die. I’ve made my choice and I’ll do whatever I can do to not get coved-19.
Hope you have enough food stockpiled for a year ...
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Hope you have enough food stockpiled for a year ...
Bart I understand that the Dutch are following different procedures. There wasn't a shutdown like over here. Can you explain what they're doing?
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China is sending medical supplies to Europe, including ventilators, and including my country (Portugal) for free. So not everybody is thinking "profit" right now.
That's honourable and I hope it's done because of their good heart. Our guilt.
But, I'm a little more cynical about this stuff and think about the alternatives, such as trying to score points in Europe for a higher influence in the future. They've been trying to get a better footing in Europe for some years now, this is a good opportunity particularly with US not opposing them.
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That's honourable and I hope it's done because of their good heart. Our guilt.
But, I'm a little more cynical about this stuff and think about the alternatives, such as trying to score points in Europe for a higher influence in the future. They've been trying to get a better footing in Europe for some years now, this is a good opportunity particularly with US not opposing them.
I smell a rat with everything China does. They're an untrustworthy nation who doesn;t follow the rules stealing commercial secrets, robbing intellectual property, etc. They're not to be trusted. I can;t believe we in the west have turned over our family jewels to them. There was an old expression that went around during the time of the Soviet Union. That the west would sell them the rope that they would use to hang us. Well, with China, they're making the rope too.
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Now, that Harvey Weinstein tested positive in jail, where can you feel safe?
At least he won't have to "not" commit suicide.
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Hope you have enough food stockpiled for a year ...
I'm only good for about 6 months if it gets to my rations. I suppose I could add an extra month or two if went subsistance. Sooner or later and I really hope its later I'll need to venture out again and resupply if I can.
I took a lot of heat from family and friends for doing what they called "panic" buying right after this started in China. I really, really wanted to be wrong. But sadly I might be right and Im not really happy about that. I screwed up however by not liquidatiiong a bunch of stocks. I was ready to pull the trigher but something stopped me. I'm a bit upset I did not follow my gut. Can't win them all. Now, its just trying to stay alive.
The problem is many other are not in the same position.
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Bart I understand that the Dutch are following different procedures. There wasn't a shutdown like over here. Can you explain what they're doing?
Nobody can escape it, so we try to minimize the health issues (like overburdened ICUs and personnel). This week will be crucial for the Netherlands (which was affected slightly later than others), will we be able to flatten the curve that was set by Italy? We adopted the principle of Social Distancing, but not a total Lock-down, on March 16th. Essential functions are allowed to be open, like medical, transport, food, garbage collection, etc., as long as 1.5 meters (5 feet) distance between individuals is maintained. People are (so far) discouraged to go outdoors if they can avoid it, this regime may be tightened to mandatory home quarantine or (for those already having tested positive) isolation, or a restriction to a maximum of 2 people in any public location.
Schools were initially not included, but they were formally added a few days after the rest of society. By now, many schools have put into place a system of Electronic Schooling that seems to function reasonably well, given the circumstances. Children of workers in essential occupations can still go daycare. It also helps maintain peace in families that are now forced on to each other's lips 24/7.
Because a peak is expected this week, ICU patients from the first hit regions in the country were already moved to locations across the country with still relatively good spare ICU capacity, so that those patients who will be added this week do not make the system fail. For that purpose, regular passenger buses were transformed into 6-person ambulances.
The whole approach is science-driven as was explained in a National Address by the Prime Minister. The options were presented, and the preferred choice explained. That approach achieved broad support under the total population, also from all political parties, although there are still some individuals who act irresponsibly.
The political effect, although certainly not the main focus, is that the PM's approval rating hit 68% after his speech to the nation, which is exceptional for a sitting president. His approval rating fluctuated between 25 and 45% before the Corona crisis, which is normal for a critical country like ours.
Economically, we're relatively fine for many months if need be. The government has been building reserves since 2008, so they can accommodate businesses and individuals with delays in tax payments, temporary unemployment benefits without a lot of paperwork, personal loans with few restrictions and low-interest rates, to name a few.
As said, we expect a significant exponential increase in patients and casualties this week, but also expect to see the first effects of the measures taken by a flattening of the curve. If that's not enough, then more draconic actions will need to be taken to reign in the few individuals who threaten the joint effort.
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That's honourable and I hope it's done because of their good heart. Our guilt.
But, I'm a little more cynical about this stuff and think about the alternatives, such as trying to score points in Europe for a higher influence in the future. They've been trying to get a better footing in Europe for some years now, this is a good opportunity particularly with US not opposing them.
Correct, handed to them on a silver platter.
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Correct, handed to them on a silver platter.
The US has been giving foreign aid for a long time, with the motivation (mostly) of increasing our influence. And now China does it and it is suddenly evil?
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No difference between the US and China. Right Peter?
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No difference between the US and China. Right Peter?
Same goals, and not so different means.
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Same goals, and not so different means.
You must be from China.
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I've been thinking that you'd be better off getting sick now while they have ventilators and hospital beds rather than later when there's nothing left. Pay now or pay later. It always seem to cost more later.
Alan, I am shocked to see the spread around where you live... the bottom line for you is: don't get the bloody thing in the first place! Do your best to stay safe. Listen to the experts.
I hope you are able to keep it at bay!
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You must be from China.
Nope, just don't have painted glasses on. Seen what has gone on in this world this past 50 years.
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No difference between the US and China. Right Peter?
I was watching a local economist discussing the whole corona virus business and he said something interesting: he spoke about the fact that it seems that all the countries in the world are approaching this on an ad hoc basis, there is no combined, single effort. The world is lacking leadership and that leadership usually comes from the United States... What happens when there is a vacuum? Someone fills it, in this case China has been given the run of the show.
Say what you like, "America first" will affect everyone, including the US.
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Same goals, and not so different means.
Yeah, the Americans have been trying for years to steal the recipe for Chinese noodle soup.
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Nobody can escape it, so we try to minimize the health issues (like overburdened ICUs and personnel). This week will be crucial for the Netherlands (which was affected slightly later than others), will we be able to flatten the curve that was set by Italy? We adopted the principle of Social Distancing, but not a total Lock-down, on March 16th. Essential functions are allowed to be open, like medical, transport, food, garbage collection, etc., as long as 1.5 meters (5 feet) distance between individuals is maintained. People are (so far) discouraged to go outdoors if they can avoid it, this regime may be tightened to mandatory home quarantine or (for those already having tested positive) isolation, or a restriction to a maximum of 2 people in any public location.
Schools were initially not included, but they were formally added a few days after the rest of society. By now, many schools have put into place a system of Electronic Schooling that seems to function reasonably well, given the circumstances. Children of workers in essential occupations can still go daycare. It also helps maintain peace in families that are now forced on to each other's lips 24/7.
Because a peak is expected this week, ICU patients from the first hit regions in the country were already moved to locations across the country with still relatively good spare ICU capacity, so that those patients who will be added this week do not make the system fail. For that purpose, regular passenger buses were transformed into 6-person ambulances.
The whole approach is science-driven as was explained in a National Address by the Prime Minister. The options were presented, and the preferred choice explained. That approach achieved broad support under the total population, also from all political parties, although there are still some individuals who act irresponsibly.
The political effect, although certainly not the main focus, is that the PM's approval rating hit 68% after his speech to the nation, which is exceptional for a sitting president. His approval rating fluctuated between 25 and 45% before the Corona crisis, which is normal for a critical country like ours.
Economically, we're relatively fine for many months if need be. The government has been building reserves since 2008, so they can accommodate businesses and individuals with delays in tax payments, temporary unemployment benefits without a lot of paperwork, personal loans with few restrictions and low-interest rates, to name a few.
As said, we expect a significant exponential increase in patients and casualties this week, but also expect to see the first effects of the measures taken by a flattening of the curve. If that's not enough, then more draconic actions will need to be taken to reign in the few individuals who threaten the joint effort.
You're basically doing what we're doing here. But what about small businesses like food shops, coffee shops, barbers, office workers in large corporations? Photographers? Etc. EVerything here seems to be shutting down. I thought the Netherlands was keeping those places open over there?
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The US has been giving foreign aid for a long time, with the motivation (mostly) of increasing our influence. And now China does it and it is suddenly evil?
Indeed... I am appalled by the reaction of some people here. China, together witht some other Asian countries like south Korea and Japan, have shown how to tackle this problem: a lot of testing and effective quarantine. They are at the forefront of the scientific testing. Those countries have a lot of experience from previous epidemics like the SARS-COV1 in 2002 and 2003.
We should listen to them without needless remarks. Blaming the "china virus" to divert attention from pour own incompetence from our "leaders" will not result - people are not that stupid. Unfortunately, the countries of Trump, Bolsonaro, and Boris, will suffer a lot with this.
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Alan, I am shocked to see the spread around where you live... the bottom line for you is: don't get the bloody thing in the first place! Do your best to stay safe. Listen to the experts.
I hope you are able to keep it at bay!
There were 7 people in one family that got it 5 miles from me and 3 died.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/nyregion/new-jersey-family-coronavirus.html
There were 141 cases in my NJ county Middlesex and the one adjacent Monmouth. That's out of a population of 1 1/2 million. That doesn't sound so bad. Basically I'm staying in and disinfecting, making my own Purell hand sanitizer, etc. Pretty boring. It's raining now so I can't even get out to shoot. I just got in three lens boards from China for my new 4x5 camera and an eye level reflex finder for it. Sprayed it with alcohol. So now I have to mount a couple of lenses and figure out how I'm going to store them in my backpack.
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No difference between the US and China. Right Peter?
For the first time, Russ, I'm beginning to understand your gun fetish.
Today, fm The Times, UK:
The Trump administration has issued secret orders to facilitate a military takeover of the US in the event that civilian leadership is incapacitated during the coronavirus crisis, a report says.
The orders would kick in if disease or violence arising from the pandemic rendered Washington impotent and prevented devolution of power to civilian leaders in the regions as envisaged in decades of contingency planning.
The United States would then be placed under the authority of Terrence O’Shaughnessy, a four-star general and former fighter pilot who is the designated “combatant commander” ...
Ho, hum ...
(https://www.thetimes.co.uk/imageserver/image/%2Fmethode%2Ftimes%2Fprod%2Fweb%2Fbin%2F0de2a106-6c5b-11ea-be3e-cbd8c9978c9e.jpg?crop=5568%2C3132%2C0%2C290&resize=800)
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Wow, some of you guys are really taking hysteria and conspiracy theories to the next level.
Quick question, why would you be upset by this, are you not for bigger government? Or is it upsetting that through the past 3 years of Trump, the constant talk about how he is a tyrant, yet not taking any tyrannical power, driving the media so mad they need to run stories like this?
Anyway, spoke to an interior designer I know today. She has appointments for residential projects that she is still going to, even though the city put in place a shelter in place order. She wants the projects and the money, end of story.
So, I'll say it again, people are not going to listen to these stay inside orders and will conduct business. After looking at more and more info, I still feel we are going totally overboard on this. Put in place procedures to protect the elderly and those at risk, and allow everyone else to get back to work and not loose their jobs or businesses.
I will be very curious to see what the suicide and overdose rate is during this period, and if those who insisted we take these measures will apologize if those go up by a considerable amount.
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For the first time, Russ, I'm beginning to understand your gun fetish.
Today, fm The Times, UK:
Ho, hum ...
(https://www.thetimes.co.uk/imageserver/image/%2Fmethode%2Ftimes%2Fprod%2Fweb%2Fbin%2F0de2a106-6c5b-11ea-be3e-cbd8c9978c9e.jpg?crop=5568%2C3132%2C0%2C290&resize=800)
Assuming this is real, the most interesting thing to me about it is that a couple of weeks ago Americans were being told by those at the top that there was no serious problem and many seemed to believe that, but now, really just a few days later, we get this development. Seems like a big step to take. How do you go from "nothing to worry about" to "state of emergency" in an eye blink? Or, put it a different way, if you believe them then, how can you believe them now? Or vice-versa.
But I didn't really think that anyone believed POTUS when he was telling them not to worry, or they wouldn't have been out buying up all that toilet paper.
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Assuming this is real ...
It is, Robert, it is.
Or rather, it was published in The Times today.
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We just got shut down. Entire country. Actually a very inspiring message from our president. No one leave their homes. Supermarkets and pharmacies only to remain open. Oh and banks. Three weeks starting on Thursday.
Reports of the Defense Force already being deployed. In context it’s good news.
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Wow, some of you guys are really taking hysteria and conspiracy theories to the next level.
Quick question, why would you be upset by this, are you not for bigger government?
Qué ?
I've posted an extract from a reputable news source. The rest is your 'take' and yours alone - and where have I ever said that I was in favour of 'bigger government' ? Effective government doesn't necessarily translate into bigger government.
Qué ? , again!
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Indeed... I am appalled by the reaction of some people here. China, together witht some other Asian countries like south Korea and Japan, have shown how to tackle this problem: a lot of testing and effective quarantine. They are at the forefront of the scientific testing. Those countries have a lot of experience from previous epidemics like the SARS-COV1 in 2002 and 2003.
We should listen to them without needless remarks. Blaming the "china virus" to divert attention from pour own incompetence from our "leaders" will not result - people are not that stupid. Unfortunately, the countries of Trump, Bolsonaro, and Boris, will suffer a lot with this.
When I watched my doctor granddaughter's graduation ceremony video from Edinburgh Uni, I was stunned to see the huge percentage of Chinese graduates. These people are intelligent, dilligent and productive. We make foes of them at our risk. Also of note: I got the impression that more women (of all races) than men were graduating, something else to note at our possible risk!
After all, how many bulls, how many roosters does a farm need?
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We just got shut down. Entire country. Actually a very inspiring message from our president. No one leave their homes. Supermarkets and pharmacies only to remain open. Oh and banks. Three weeks starting on Thursday.
Reports of the Defense Force already being deployed. In context it’s good news.
Enjoy the 'break', Martin.
Stay safe, stay well.
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We just got shut down. Entire country. Actually a very inspiring message from our president. No one leave their homes. Supermarkets and pharmacies only to remain open. Oh and banks. Three weeks starting on Thursday.
Reports of the Defense Force already being deployed. In context it’s good news.
If everyone on the planet stayed home for a month, the virus would be more or less gone.
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Seen what has gone on in this world this past 50 years.
Well, that explains it then. The Great Leap Forward was in 1958 -- more than 50 years ago, so you wouldn't have a clue, and just demonstrated that fact. You might want to do some reading on the subject.
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Qué ?
I've posted an extract from a reputable news source. The rest is your 'take' and yours alone - and where have I ever said that I was in favour of 'bigger government' ? Effective government doesn't necessarily translate into bigger government.
Qué ? , again!
I dont really take the NY Times (I assume the NY Times) to be reputable at this point, and my comment about wanting big government was not directed at you, but at the Times. I should have been more clear on that.
Just today I read that several historians who were called in to fact check the Times' 1619 project last year spoke against it and that it was a very misleading idea. Yet the Times decided to publish it anyway and even further so devision in our country, so the Grey Lady is not at the same status she once was. The editor is chief even said as much when he promoted the idea that the news should be sensationalized in the era of Trump.
And regardless if the story is true or not, whatever policies that would be put in place would more than likely following the protocols developed before Trump ever got into office.
I am really tired of these constant gotcha articles coming out of the press trying to sensationalize everything. I just dont pay attention to them anymore.
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I dont really take the NY Times (I assume the NY Times) to be reputable at this point,
My bad. The Times (UK). The American one is known (to me) as the NYT.
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My bad. The Times (UK). The American one is known (to me) as the NYT.
Oh okay, sorry about that from my side as well.
I typically give foreign press more credence than ours, so apologies on assuming this. In this case, I am going to guess it was more of a just the facts story.
I have developed a knee jerk reaction when I hear The Times, since they have engaged in heavily biased stories and even published unverified accounts that even the main person denies as happening, like with the latest Cavanaugh story.
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These people are intelligent, dilligent and productive. We make foes of them at our risk.
No, no, Rob, we don't make foes of the Chinese people. We recognize that the Chinese leadership are foes. They make that clear every day. I have two half-Chinese great-grandkids. They're anything but foes.
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When I watched my doctor granddaughter's graduation ceremony video from Edinburgh Uni, I was stunned to see the huge percentage of Chinese graduates. These people are intelligent, dilligent and productive. We make foes of them at our risk. Also of note: I got the impression that more women (of all races) than men were graduating, something else to note at our possible risk!
After all, how many bulls, how many roosters does a farm need?
The disproportionate numbers of women vs men appears to be true in universities everywhere and has been so for a few years.
I saw some stats once of the number of engineers, doctors and scientists graduating from Chinese universities compared to the number of financiers and lawyers from Western universities. Their schools are accessible to those with the aptitude, while our tuition fees have increased at rates that are wildly out of whack with real increases in costs, because we've decided to make universities profit centres (this is less true of Canada than the US). We (our culture) is making a big mistake.
From my previous job editing scientific papers there is a lot of work being published in a lot of countries, including places that a generation ago were considered third world. Some people still think the world is the way it was in 1975, but they haven't been paying attention.
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... Those countries have a lot of experience from previous epidemics like the SARS-COV1 in 2002 and 2003...
Swine flu, bird flu... etc.
And why is that? Because those mofos like to eat what no other normal human on Earth would even consider eating. And it always "randomly" starts there.
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The Trump administration has issued secret orders to facilitate a military takeover of the US in the event that civilian leadership is incapacitated during the coronavirus crisis, a report says.
The orders would kick in if disease or violence arising from the pandemic rendered Washington impotent and prevented devolution of power to civilian leaders in the regions as envisaged in decades of contingency planning.
The United States would then be placed under the authority of Terrence O’Shaughnessy, a four-star general and former fighter pilot who is the designated “combatant commander” ...
As the duke said to the woman: "If you believe that, you will believe anything."
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The disproportionate numbers of women vs men appears to be true in universities everywhere and has been so for a few years...
Which is the beginning of the end for the Western Civilization.
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As the duke said to the woman: "If you believe that, you will believe anything."
You should stop quoting the duke, he was just a Hollywood star. It might give people leave to quote Jane Fonda and we don't want that. :)
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Swine flu, bird flu... etc.
And why is that? Because those mofos like to eat what no other normal human on Earth would even consider eating. And it always "randomly" starts there.
It would be in everyone's best interests to get them to adopt modern food chain hygiene rules. Maybe we could exchange that training for some ventilators and masks. :)
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You're basically doing what we're doing here. But what about small businesses like food shops, coffee shops, barbers, office workers in large corporations? Photographers? Etc. EVerything here seems to be shutting down. I thought the Netherlands was keeping those places open over there?
No, maximum control to avoid the spread, but without total lock-down. The situation is managed on a daily basis. Last weekend a lot of people ignored the social distancing guidelines and came together in parks and on beaches. This will result in a peak in infections in about 10 days. A government reaction will follow this evening (see below).
Small business owners without personnel can e.g. get a loan to avoid immediate bankruptcy, so they can still pay rent and utility bills. They can pay their Taxes (e.g. VAT and Municipal) at a later date without getting fined, etc. etc.
An hour ago a press-conference was broadcast on national TV and radio stations:
Effective immediately,
1. All gatherings (events, meetings, home parties) are forbidden till June 1st, without a lower limit on the number of people (exceptions for e.g. funerals and marriages).
2. City Majors can close specific locations without having to pass new laws, shops can be confronted with closure if they do not implement an effective door policy, (e.g. limiting the number of customers in the shop at the same time),
3. Groups of more than 3 people in public space (streets, parks, beaches) are forbidden (parents with young children excepted). Minimum allowed distance between people remains 1.5 meters. Police can enforce including writing a ticket (couple of hundred Euros).
If 1 person in a family has sympthoms, then all family members are forced to maintain quaranty.
Other activities include ongoing expansion of ICU capacity.
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Which is the beginning of the end for the Western Civilization.
It's been underway for a long time now, Slobodan. When I was at University of Michigan in the late forties and early fifties I used to hang out in the Men's Union. Women weren't allowed in the place. It kept the intermingling situation down to a dull roar and allowed you to study -- or, in my case, write poetry.
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That's enough panic for today. I'm outta here.
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No, maximum control to avoid the spread, but without total lock-down. The situation is managed on a daily basis. Last weekend a lot of people ignored the social distancing guidelines and came together in parks and on beaches. This will result in a peak in infections in about 10 days. A government reaction will follow this evening (see below).
Small business owners without personnel can e.g. get a loan to avoid immediate bankruptcy, so they can still pay rent and utility bills. They can pay their Taxes (e.g. VAT and Municipal) at a later date without getting fined, etc. etc.
An hour ago a press-conference was broadcast on national TV and radio stations:
Effective immediately,
1. All gatherings (events, meetings, home parties) are forbidden till June 1st, without a lower limit on the number of people (exceptions for e.g. funerals and marriages).
2. City Majors can close specific locations without having to pass new laws, shops can be confronted with closure if they do not implement an effective door policy, (e.g. limiting the number of customers in the shop at the same time),
3. Groups of more than 3 people in public space (streets, parks, beaches) are forbidden (parents with young children excepted). Minimum allowed distance between people remains 1.5 meters. Police can enforce including writing a ticket (couple of hundred Euros).
If 1 person in a family has sympthoms, then all family members are forced to maintain quaranty.
Other activities include ongoing expansion of ICU capacity.
In some locales here in Ontario people were congregating in large numbers, conservation areas, some parks, etc. Authorities have had to shut them down. Aside from not keeping social distance because the places were becoming too crowded, they were trampling on sensitive areas that are still too wet from the spring thaw.
It will be interesting to see when the research eventually gets done, how much infection was precipitated by the people who insisted on partying during spring break.
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It's been underway for a long time now, Slobodan. When I was at University of Michigan in the late forties and early fifties I used to hang out in the Men's Union. Women weren't allowed in the place. It kept the intermingling situation down to a dull roar and allowed you to study -- or, in my case, write poetry.
Yup, that's the trouble with too much intermingling, it saps all the precious bodily fluids. :)
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Which is the beginning of the end for the Western Civilization.
I wonder if this is what Taliban online forums are like. ;)
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As the duke said to the woman: "If you believe that, you will believe anything."
Live and learn, Russ, live and learn ...
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Which is the beginning of the end for the Western Civilization.
Reminds me of what Gandhi said when asked what he thought of western civilization. His reply was that he thought it would be a good idea.
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Enjoy the 'break', Martin.
Stay safe, stay well.
Thank you. I am going to try come out of this a better person than what I go in. Providing I survive of course and that is not assured.
I thought our president spoke well and made a heartfelt appeal for us to be kind and cooperative and nice to each other.
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I live in a village that is a bit of a tourist trap, as well as a venue for filming (4 Weddings and a Funeral, The Holiday, Bridget Jones, etc.). Last weekend residents got really hacked off with the number of people flouting the UK government's strong, clear, advice on social distancing (2 metres separation). The same happened in the next village where off-road bikers sat around in a big group chatting and eating snacks at the end of their rides in the woods.
Today notices have been put up by the local Council. 'If your visit is not essential, please go home.' We are not the only ones. Respiratory hospital staff in Belfast have today issued a hard hitting video plea to the media for people to stay at home, so that they (the staff) are as well protected as possible and can continue to care for those who have the virus. The government is actively considering further restrictions and sanctions.
The behaviour of a surprising number of people is dumbfuckery of a high order.
Best wishes,
Jonathan
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Well, that explains it then. The Great Leap Forward was in 1958 -- more than 50 years ago, so you wouldn't have a clue, and just demonstrated that fact. You might want to do some reading on the subject.
Please oh wise one...why don't you educate us clueless folk. Tell me about all the US backed invasions to take out foreign leaders to be replaced by a US puppet. US made a huge deal about some foreign country influencing their last election...how many times has the US flexed their muscles to influence elections in areas that have US interests.
Some people can see things clearly without having their rosy blinds influencing their views.
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Today, fm The Times, UK:
The Trump administration has issued secret orders to facilitate a military takeover of the US in the event that civilian leadership is incapacitated during the coronavirus crisis, a report says.
This is a Times of London pick-up of a story published by Newsweek last Wednesday about federal "continuity of government" plans which have been prepared by every presidential administration for many years―at least since the cold war―in order to provide for the safety of senior appointive (i.e., political) and career (civil service, foreign service, and military) officials and, if necessary, the devolution of essential functions to lower-level officials so government services can continue uninterrupted during a national emergency. The military has an important role in this process―for example, by providing emergency transportation―but to characterize this as preparation for a "military takeover" is preposterous.
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This is a Times of London pick-up of a story published by Newsweek last Wednesday about federal "continuity of government" plans which have been prepared by every presidential administration for many years―at least since the cold war―in order to provide for the safety of senior appointive (i.e., political) and career (civil service, foreign service, and military) officials and, if necessary, the devolution of essential functions to lower-level officials so government services can continue uninterrupted during a national emergency. The military has an important role in this process―for example, by providing emergency transportation―but to characterize this as preparation for a "military takeover" is preposterous.
It's not preposterous if you're looking to write another article to bring down Trump. These accusations have been going on for four years. After all, before he was going to take over the government, wasn't he a traitor colluding with the Russians? Damn Mueller.
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This is a Times of London pick-up of a story published by Newsweek last Wednesday about federal "continuity of government" plans ... but to characterize this as preparation for a "military takeover" is preposterous.
You are correct, though I did not characterise it at all - ‘some’ (plural), interpreted it within the confines of their own perspective.
A fourth plan, codenamed Granite Shadow, relates to domestic missions involving weapons of mass destruction.
Three others — Octagon, Freejack and Zodiac — outline how “continuity of government” would be maintained by circumventing the succession sequence laid out in the constitution and placing military commanders in control until a new civilian leader could be installed.
In October 2018 the joint chiefs of staff reminded military commanders that they could “engage temporarily” in military control on their own authority “where prior authorisation by the president is impossible” or where local authorities “are unable to control the situation”. Eligible conditions include “large scale unexpected civil disturbances” involving “significant loss of life or wanton destruction of property”.
In the final year of his administration President Obama issued an order clarifying the “national essential functions” of government that needed to be maintained in an emergency.
The catastrophe response programme began in the Eisenhower era, when the possibility emerged of an enemy power obliterating the White House in a nuclear attack.
Imposing martial law temporarily is a “pretty straightforward process” when only one city or region has been devastated, a military planner told William Arkin, the journalist and former soldier who wrote the Newsweek piece. “But with coronavirus, where the effect is nationwide, we’re in territory we’ve never been in before.”
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Which is the beginning of the end for the Western Civilization.
Insecure much? Heaven forbid your wife tells you what to do. Oh, wait ..
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According to Johns Hopkins University tracking, the death rate in the US is about 1.3%.
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Indeed... I am appalled by the reaction of some people here. China, together witht some other Asian countries like south Korea and Japan, have shown how to tackle this problem: a lot of testing and effective quarantine. They are at the forefront of the scientific testing. Those countries have a lot of experience from previous epidemics like the SARS-COV1 in 2002 and 2003.
We should listen to them without needless remarks. Blaming the "china virus" to divert attention from pour own incompetence from our "leaders" will not result - people are not that stupid. Unfortunately, the countries of Trump, Bolsonaro, and Boris, will suffer a lot with this.
My comment referred to the "not for profit" part of why Chinese are helping.
The current administration's "America first" created a huge vacuum in the outside world that China is happily filling. South and Central America were already prime targets, messing up with NAFTA for that long only helped them. Look at the level of Chinese investments there.
China has a tremendous history and culture, US can only dream of.
The present however is why I will never be their supporter. I believe in those 3 things, life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. China does about half. You are free to pursuit happiness and to live as long as the party agrees with it, and you definitely have to agree with the party. Until they do all, I will never root for them. They have a lot to offer, but it's poisoned inside. US has its own issues but there is no comparison on those 3 requirements. Now after this lockdown stuff maybe the ruling party will like the taste of it and want to become like China.
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According to Johns Hopkins University tracking, the death rate in the US is about 1.3%.
John, remember that is based on tested individuals. The actual infections may be ten times that dropping the mortality to 0.13% As soon as possibly feasible, large scale testing of the US populace needs to take place; only then will we know the true statistics.
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According to Johns Hopkins University tracking, the death rate in the US is about 1.3%.
That corresponds very closely with the 1.22% rate calculated from latest total infection count (42,839) and total fatalities (522). Which is almost exactly the same as the South Korea death rate (1.24%). Compared with 9.51% for Italy or 6.67% for Spain.
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The actual infections may be ten times that dropping the mortality to 0.13% As soon as possibly feasible, large scale testing of the US populace needs to take place; only then will we know the true statistics.
Also, in order to make accurate estimates of both the extent of infection and the death rate, won't it also be necessary to check a sample of the population for antibodies to the COVID-19 virus in order to determine how many people already have been infected and have recovered? My impression is that to date the only tests that are being performed―at least in the United States―are to determine which individuals are currently infected.
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Wow, some of you guys are really taking hysteria and conspiracy theories to the next level.
Quick question, why would you be upset by this, are you not for bigger government? Or is it upsetting that through the past 3 years of Trump, the constant talk about how he is a tyrant, yet not taking any tyrannical power, driving the media so mad they need to run stories like this?
Anyway, spoke to an interior designer I know today. She has appointments for residential projects that she is still going to, even though the city put in place a shelter in place order. She wants the projects and the money, end of story.
So, I'll say it again, people are not going to listen to these stay inside orders and will conduct business. After looking at more and more info, I still feel we are going totally overboard on this. Put in place procedures to protect the elderly and those at risk, and allow everyone else to get back to work and not loose their jobs or businesses.
I will be very curious to see what the suicide and overdose rate is during this period, and if those who insisted we take these measures will apologize if those go up by a considerable amount.
Everyone is different and quite frankly that designer should be ashamed of herself for taking the chance of perhaps infecting people, all for a buck.
Just an hour ago I took a call from a very good client. He wants to sell his 2018 Gulfstream G280. It’s a very nice aircraft and he wanted me to shoot images of the quality that I produced a few years ago when he sold his a Lear 60. He wants to list this plane ASAP.
The problem, Indiana shelter in place goes in effect tomorrow at midnight and the plane is not back until Weds. it’s a very pricy assignment and they offered a bonus.
I declined, not because I wanted too, and despite of the great billing and quick pay, but rather because it was the right thing to do. They are an essential industry and I could have gotten a letter to allow me to travel.
But it’s still not right.
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After the UK behaviour last weekend with people flouting social distancing, it was inevitable that closing down all but essentials tomorrow to prevent social interaction and movement would happen. 'Stay at Home' is the mantra. The thrust in the UK is to stop people mixing and transmitting the virus. It is important that medics do not catch it, and that the elderly do not either, so that the health system is not swamped and people with other health problems are not put at risk as well. See the Belfast plea, going viral
https://www.facebook.com/BelfastTrust/videos/208441737094967/
That said there is a very expensive package in place to keep the economy going so that companies of all sizes do not go under, unemployment rise, and even more money paid out in benefits through the compulsory close down, with sanctions to enforce. This is helped by the cost of borrowing being so cheap.
Hey ho, if it goes on for long, we will all have hair down to our waist - hairdressing is not essential. Amazon will be loving it, as long as they can get stock to deliver. The fact that the virus can stay on hard surfaces means that cash is being used less and less, contactless card transactions are rocketing. Its all change, no pun intended.
Best wishes,
Jonathan
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John, remember that is based on tested individuals. The actual infections may be ten times that dropping the mortality to 0.13% As soon as possibly feasible, large scale testing of the US populace needs to take place; only then will we know the true statistics.
The woman virologist at the President's news conference tonight reported that approximately 20% of the people tested in New York are positive compared to 8% in other parts of the US. She claims that apparently the virus had been going around a couple of weeks sooner and that closer socialism added to the higher infection rate in NY. She also mentioned that based on European figures, 99% of the dead are over 50. Trump used these figures to make the point I made here a few days ago that the cure may be worse than the disease (He called it "worse than the problem"). I see him opening things up economically at the end of the 15 day period declared a week ago. That may be bad for old guys like me with some medical problems. But I think the country has to pick between the virus and starving to death by not being able to get resources to eat. Frankly, the rest of the world is going to have to make that same decision.
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Everyone is different and quite frankly that designer should be ashamed of herself for taking the chance of perhaps infecting people, all for a buck.
Just an hour ago I took a call from a very good client. He wants to sell his 2018 Gulfstream G280. It’s a very nice aircraft and he wanted me to shoot images of the quality that I produced a few years ago when he sold his a Lear 60. He wants to list this plane ASAP.
The problem, Indiana shelter in place goes in effect tomorrow at midnight and the plane is not back until Weds. it’s a very pricy assignment and they offered a bonus.
I declined, not because I wanted too, and despite of the great billing and quick pay, but rather because it was the right thing to do. They are an essential industry and I could have gotten a letter to allow me to travel.
But it’s still not right.
Each has their own risks to way, and I do not judge anyone who happens to find it riskier to give up work then catch this thing. You're in a different position then her and what works for you is not the same as what works for her.
I am not for everyone going out, partying in a crowded bar and hugging random people, but engaging in meetings to still maintain your business is different. After all we have to come out of this with viable lives as well. Having everyone to stay inside for a few months is not only impractical, but not something we can expect people to do.
A photographer in NYC jumped to his death this week and one can only guess loosing lots of work was, partly, a reason for it. Stopping the economy dead also costs lives.
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The woman virologist at the President's news conference tonight reported that approximately 20% of the people tested in New York are positive compared to 8% in other parts of the US. She claims that apparently the virus had been going around a couple of weeks sooner and that closer socialism added to the higher infection rate in NY. She also mentioned that based on European figures, 99% of the dead are over 50. Trump used these figures to make the point I made here a few days ago that the cure may be worse than the disease (He called it "worse than the problem"). I see him opening things up economically at the end of the 15 day period declared a week ago. That may be bad for old guys like me with some medical problems. But I think the country has to pick between the virus and starving to death by not being able to get resources to eat. Frankly, the rest of the world is going to have to make that same decision.
Closer or farther, socialism is never a good thing.
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When you work, you're not only feeding your family, you;re helping others to feed theirs as well. I was watching the news conference. So you had the President, VP, AJ, and other people in close proximity reporting to the public. The woman reported she had to be tested because see ran a fever Satur . Turned out negative. The president stepped away and laughed. The point is they're taking risks because that;s their job.
Well, we all have a job to do. If you're a doctor and staying home, you're not in your office helping sick people. My nephew, a anesthesiologist was sent home from the hospital when they cancelled elective surgery which is practically everything not like a car accident. A teacher isn't teaching the young. Truck drivers are not delivering food, medicine, and other things that keep the public alive and healthy. I ran a business that services fire alarm systems in high rise office building in MAnhattan that protected people and property. I know people who are not getting their cancer treatments now because of this. If you're a photographer not working and helping to sell product of others, than you're taking food off the table of the workers of that company. In other words, work not only helps us but the rest of society as well. Let's not shoot ourselves in the foot.
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Closer or farther, socialism is never a good thing.
I meant socialization not socialism. :)
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I meant socialization not socialism. :)
That makes more sense. ;) Although, these days too much of socialization could be even more dangerous than the socialism.
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Indeed... I am appalled by the reaction of some people here. China, together witht some other Asian countries like south Korea and Japan, have shown how to tackle this problem: a lot of testing and effective quarantine. They are at the forefront of the scientific testing. Those countries have a lot of experience from previous epidemics like the SARS-COV1 in 2002 and 2003.
Euh... Korea I agree 100%. China so so... Japan has done very very little. In fact I would argue that Japan has been by far the worst among developed countries.
Besides closing the schools and discouraging large gatherings, they have taken zero coercive measures.
On the contrary, they have taken a clear policy of doing as few tests as possible, only 1,300 per day vs their capacity of 6,000.
The official contamination numbers are probably not lies, but considering how little they test, we can only assume that the real numbers are tens of times higher. The horrible consequence is that many Japanese people have stopped to wear masks.
I hate to be pessimistic, but I am afraid Japan could be the next major WW victim. And that will be 100% the result of the decisions of Abe. Needless to say, the motivation was to try to save the Olympic games.
Cheers,
Bernard
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That makes more sense. ;) Although, these days too much of socialization could be even more dangerous than the socialism.
I know what you mean. When I got divorced, my first wife took more from me than Sanders wants too.
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A photographer in NYC jumped to his death this week and one can only guess loosing lots of work was, partly, a reason for it. Stopping the economy dead also costs lives.
He was a street photographer and left behind a note "How do you enjoy life?" So maybe it was not so much lack of money as poor prospects for street shooting.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11235622/haunting-suicide-note-left-by-photographer-64-who-jumped-to-his-death-from-the-16th-floor-of-luxury-apartments/
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Euh... Korea I agree 100%. China so so... Japan has done very very little. In fact I would argue that Japan has been by far the worst among developed countries.
Besides closing the schools and discouraging large gatherings, they have taken zero coercive measures.
On the contrary, they have taken a clear policy of doing as few tests as possible, only 1,300 per day vs their capacity of 6,000.
The official contamination numbers are probably not lies, but considering how little they test, we can only assume that the real numbers are tens of times higher. The horrible consequence is that many Japanese people have stopped to wear masks.
I hate to be pessimistic, but I am afraid Japan could be the next major WW victim. And that will be 100% the result of the decisions of Abe. Needless to say, the motivation was to try to save the Olympic games.
Cheers,
Bernard
If true about Japan, their mortality numbers must be actually very high do to the advanced age of their population.
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He was a street photographer and left behind a note "How do you enjoy life?" So maybe it was not so much lack of money as poor prospects for street shooting.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11235622/haunting-suicide-note-left-by-photographer-64-who-jumped-to-his-death-from-the-16th-floor-of-luxury-apartments/
The TV showed a young street drummer in Time Square who plays on plastic cans. He gets tips from the passing public. Because of the new regulations, he only makes $20 a day. In normal times he makes $200 a day. Cash. No taxes. Fresh air.
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The last few posts show how different America is from some other countries. Europe is looking at Italy and not liking what it sees in the north of that country. If the virus goes wide scale, then even with a death rate of 2% to 5% there will be a lot of deaths. If a significant number of medics are put out of action, then that would affect many more. It is interesting to note that the youngest to die in the UK was 18 years old.
Plans to convert large premises to emergency hospitals indicate that scenario planning is looking at the possibility of many succumbing. How America would deal with the effect on the economy of that may be different from how other countries would given differences in the benefit systems. The effect of the virus on the economy cannot be dodged. It will be interesting to see how it pans out in different countries.
Jonathan
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He was a street photographer and left behind a note "How do you enjoy life?" So maybe it was not so much lack of money as poor prospects for street shooting.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11235622/haunting-suicide-note-left-by-photographer-64-who-jumped-to-his-death-from-the-16th-floor-of-luxury-apartments/
How sad. He was a good photographer. This artist's talk was posted on Lula a few months back (by Rob C?):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmZ5WIqxAZ4&t=
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Each has their own risks to way, and I do not judge anyone who happens to find it riskier to give up work then catch this thing. You're in a different position then her and what works for you is not the same as what works for her.
I am not for everyone going out, partying in a crowded bar and hugging random people, but engaging in meetings to still maintain your business is different. After all we have to come out of this with viable lives as well. Having everyone to stay inside for a few months is not only impractical, but not something we can expect people to do.
A photographer in NYC jumped to his death this week and one can only guess loosing lots of work was, partly, a reason for it. Stopping the economy dead also costs lives.
Right now this has zero to do with each person and their own level of risk. In this case is not just about her and her”level of risk”. It the level level risk SHE imposed upon others without their convent. It selfish, arrogant and down right greedy at the expense of others.
The rules are not that hard to obey at this point. It’s not that much to ask this of people in an honorable society. There is no way to excuse it, no way to rationalize it, no way do anything but to object to it.
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Right now this has zero to do with each person and their own level of risk. In this case is not just about her and her”level of risk”. It the level level risk SHE imposed upon others without their convent. It selfish, arrogant and down right greedy at the expense of others.
The rules are not that hard to obey at this point. It’s not that much to ask this of people in an honorable society. There is no way to excuse it, no way to rationalize it, no way do anything but to object to it.
Can't find a connection between the quoted part and reply. Can you clarify?
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A photographer in NYC jumped to his death this week and one can only guess loosing lots of work was, partly, a reason for it. Stopping the economy dead also costs lives.
Yes...and who knows what caused this person to take their life...but the 43 people in NY today that took their last julp of air after fighting so hard for that breath had no choice of whether to see tomorrow's sunrise.
How do you know this person would not have taken his life irregardless of the virus and measures. Surely he had mental problems far more than some anxiety due to lock downs.
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Can't find a connection between the quoted part and reply. Can you clarify?
You need to go back a few posts to Joes story about an interior designer. Its a continued comment from that conversation.
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This whole stimulus fight in the Congress does nothing but make me more sick and tired of politicians, and I was already sick and tired of them. The Republicans in the Senate wanted to have a $500 million "slush fund" under Trump's control to distribute to companies that needed help, with restrictions on disclosure for six months after the money is granted; they also wanted to ban any grants to non-profits that got money from Medicaid -- that is, things like abortion clinics, drug treatment clinics, etc. In other words, they wanted to give Trump a slush fund that could be used to help his reelection, provided by the taxpayers. I would no more trust Trump with a $500 million slush fund than I'd trust a drug kingpin with it. On the other side, in the House, which is controlled by the Democrats, one proposal in their version is forgiveness -- not delay -- of up to $30,000 in student debt. What does either thing have to do with the Covid-19 virus? Suspend student loan payments for now, until people are back at work, but get the money back later. If you're going to give away $500 million, make it utterly and openly transparent, so the taxpayers know where every dollar goes. This whole stimulus thing is turning into a gold rush, and guess who's going to get the gold?
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This whole stimulus fight in the Congress does nothing but make me more sick and tired of politicians, and I was already sick and tired of them. The Republicans in the Senate wanted to have a $500 million "slush fund" under Trump's control to distribute to companies that needed help, with restrictions on disclosure for six months after the money is granted; they also wanted to ban any grants to non-profits that got money from Medicaid -- that is, things like abortion clinics, drug treatment clinics, etc. In other words, they wanted to give Trump a slush fund that could be used to help his reelection, provided by the taxpayers. I would no more trust Trump with a $500 million slush fund than I'd trust a drug kingpin with it. On the other side, in the House, which is controlled by the Democrats, one proposal in their version is forgiveness -- not delay -- of up to $30,000 in student debt. What does either thing have to do with the Covid-19 virus? Suspend student loan payments for now, until people are back at work, but get the money back later. If you're going to give away $500 million, make it utterly and openly transparent, so the taxpayers know where every dollar goes. This whole stimulus thing is turning into a gold rush, and guess who's going to get the gold?
They don't even bother being subtle these days. I love that '6 month restriction on disclosure' thing. Wow, just wow. I can barely wait to hear the justifications for it.
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The last few posts show how different America is from some other countries. Europe is looking at Italy and not liking what it sees in the north of that country. If the virus goes wide scale, then even with a death rate of 2% to 5% there will be a lot of deaths. If a significant number of medics are put out of action, then that would affect many more. It is interesting to note that the youngest to die in the UK was 18 years old.
Plans to convert large premises to emergency hospitals indicate that scenario planning is looking at the possibility of many succumbing. How America would deal with the effect on the economy of that may be different from how other countries would given differences in the benefit systems. The effect of the virus on the economy cannot be dodged. It will be interesting to see how it pans out in different countries.
Jonathan
Every country is facing economic ruin on top of a major health crisis. You can't borrow money you don't have. So the dilemma is at what point do you except a certain amount of sick and dead to allow a certain amount of the economy to move forward. Having "free" health care does not make it any different in Europe as it is in America because health care is not free. In Europe, it comes from high taxes and VATs mainly. If the economy shrinks by 50%, you don't have the money to pay for your national health system. It matters little whether that money comes from taxes like in the UK or from private insurance and taxes for the government paid for health services as in the US. So you're stuck with printing money which devalues your pound and destroys the wealth of your country. Printing money being fake, just puts an additional burden on the economy and makes it harder to recover. It adds burden in the form of debt that has to be paid tomorrow. Trump is not the only one saying we can't do this too long. Smart leaders everywhere are realizing that the operation may be successful but the patient dies anyway if they starve to death because they can't make a living. We're facing a terrible decision that's going to hurt a lot whichever way is decided. There are no easy solutions.
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If true about Japan, their mortality numbers must be actually very high do to the advanced age of their population.
Well:
- death count only includes people already diagnosed as suffering from the virus
- the condition of a 75 years old person is not just defined by his/her age but also by many other aspects
Cheers,
Bernard
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Well:
- death count only includes people already diagnosed as suffering from the virus
- the condition of a 75 years old person is not just defined by his/her age but also by many other aspects
Cheers,
Bernard
I don't understand your post. Maybe you can clarify it. My point is just that since Japan's population is more aged, the percent dying will be higher since it appears older people have trouble surviving this disease. Now, if there are other issues with the person, and the authorities decide to claim it was emphysema from smoking let's say that caused the guy's death even though it was the virus that aggravated the problem, then of course the percentage will not look as bad. That could be happening in Japan if the government wants to hide the damage being done for political or economic reasons.
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We found out today our first confirmed death here was 10 days ago.
A local businessman with a pizza place. It's scary to think of all the potential contact that came from that.
I know two other probable cases personally, one in hospital. Tests administered but not confirmed yet.
It's getting very real and very close.
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We found out today our first confirmed death here was 10 days ago.
A local businessman with a pizza place. It's scary to think of all the potential contact that came from that.
I know two other probable cases personally, one in hospital. Tests administered but not confirmed yet.
It's getting very real and very close.
I just picked up a pizza and bought it home for me and my wife. They brought it out of the store, a girl in gloves. I paid for it in advance by charge card on the phone. So I didn't go into the store. I sprayed the box and plastic bag (of salad) and wiped it down with a antibiotic wipe when putting it in the car. But who knows? Where was that pizza store?
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It was in Crested Butte, Co. And since he died 10 days ago he would have been probably contagious up to a few weeks before then and before people were taking this seriously.
This part of Colorado is being hit pretty hard. Everyone knows everyone here so it really brings it home.
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I just picked up a pizza and bought it home for me and my wife. They brought it out of the store, a girl in gloves. I paid for it in advance by charge card on the phone. So I didn't go into the store. I sprayed the box and plastic bag (of salad) and wiped it down with a antibiotic wipe when putting it in the car. But who knows? Where was that pizza store?
If you buy a frozen pizza and bake it at 400 degrees, that should kill all the germs. But if it has a lot of cheese or bacon, that could kill you.
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If you buy a frozen pizza and bake it at 400 degrees, that should kill all the germs. But if it has a lot of cheese or bacon, that could kill you.
I was suppose to go to my endocrinologist this week for a checkup on my diabetes. Since he chickened out and cancelled because of the virus, I figure I'm still healthy enough to eat pizza. But I didn't have bacon on it trying to be healthy. I had pepperoni.
My heart appointment isn't for another few months.
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I was suppose to go to my endocrinologist this week for a checkup on my diabetes. Since he chickened out and cancelled because of the virus, I figure I'm still healthy enough to eat pizza. But I didn't have bacon on it trying to be healthy. I had pepperoni.
My heart appointment isn't for another few months.
I hope your A1C was good :)
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I hope your A1C was good :)
Don't know. Because my endocrinologist cancelled, I never took the blood test either. I wasn't going into a lab with the virus going around even if they were open. That's why I can keep eating pizzas. Ignorance is bliss. :)
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There were 7 people in one family that got it 5 miles from me and 3 died.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/nyregion/new-jersey-family-coronavirus.html
There were 141 cases in my NJ county Middlesex and the one adjacent Monmouth. That's out of a population of 1 1/2 million. That doesn't sound so bad. Basically I'm staying in and disinfecting, making my own Purell hand sanitizer, etc. Pretty boring. It's raining now so I can't even get out to shoot. I just got in three lens boards from China for my new 4x5 camera and an eye level reflex finder for it. Sprayed it with alcohol. So now I have to mount a couple of lenses and figure out how I'm going to store them in my backpack.
141 cases that will double every two days. This growth period is exponential and will last about 1 month. France and Germany had around 40 cases 1 month ago. Math does not lie.
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Swine flu, bird flu... etc.
And why is that? Because those mofos like to eat what no other normal human on Earth would even consider eating. And it always "randomly" starts there.
And the gratuitous insulting continues...
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Each has their own risks to way, and I do not judge anyone who happens to find it riskier to give up work then catch this thing.
Apparently, this seems to remain one of the main flaws in reasoning, and you are not alone. It's not about catching it, it's about spreadiing it to 2-3 more people (on average) once you become contagious. This will quickly spiral out of control and overload the capacity of ICU-wards (there will be no place even for people with e.g. heart attacks).
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Apparently, this seems to remain one of the main flaws in reasoning, and you are not alone. It's not about catching it, it's about spreadiing it to 2-3 more people (on average) once you become contagious. This will quickly spiral out of control and overload the capacity of ICU-wards (there will be no place even for people with e.g. heart attacks).
I understand that Bart, but it is a flaw that a lot of people have right now. So much so that in every country there are news stories about people not following the rules, lots of people.
So it is not something I think can be fixed even with constant messaging. It's just a flaw of people in general.
You know in Philly the mandatory shut down of business has been on for a week and social distancing measures a little longer. I live a block from one of the trail heads to the Wissahickon Park and Trail and need to drive along both roads that follow the ravine on either side of it. People usually park on these roads who go to the park, and both roads were completely filled with cars, which means the park was packed. The trail is only two cars wide, so with that many people, I just cant imagine effective social distancing was taking place.
These measures can last for a couple of weeks, but until death comes to the door, I dont see it being practical expecting most to follow them much longer. It's not in our nature and I would rather work with our nature then against it.
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Right now this has zero to do with each person and their own level of risk. In this case is not just about her and her”level of risk”. It the level level risk SHE imposed upon others without their convent. It selfish, arrogant and down right greedy at the expense of others.
The rules are not that hard to obey at this point. It’s not that much to ask this of people in an honorable society. There is no way to excuse it, no way to rationalize it, no way do anything but to object to it.
I read that in the end up to 80% of the country will have to catch this thing, and many politicians are publicizing this.
If this is truly the case, people whom are not in the riskier groups at some point in time will just throw their hands up and choose to go out. Why destroy my life, and my families', by staying in if I am going to catch this eventually anyway mentality.
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I understand that Bart, but it is a flaw that a lot of people have right now. So much so that in every country there are news stories about people not following the rules.
So it is not something I think can be fixed even with constant messaging. It's just a flaw of people in general.
You know in Philly the mandatory shut down of business has been on for a week and social distancing measures a little longer. I live a block from one of the trail heads to the Wissahickon Park and Trail and need to drive along both roads that follow the ravine on either side of it. People usually park on these roads who go to the park, and both roads were completely filled with cars, which means the park was packed. The trail is only two cars wide, so with that many people, I just cant imagine effective social distancing was taking place.
These measures can last for a couple of weeks, but until death comes to the door, I dont see it being practical expecting most to follow them much longer. It's not in our nature and I would rather work with our nature then against it.
How do you work with those who are naturally selfish or stupid?
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How do you work with those who are naturally selfish or stupid?
I am all for shutting down restaurants and pubs at the current moment and asking that people practice social distancing for the time being. However, most importantly, give a real timeframe for this.
But expecting people to shut down their lives for an indefinite period of time with no end in site in areas where people are not dying in large numbers is just impractical. With no definitive end date, people are going to break the rules, and more then likely a lot sooner then if you actually gave them an end date.
I would expect this to boil over in 2 or 3 weeks. But if you told people we need to do this for 4 weeks, and only 4 weeks, right at the start, most would mentally prepare for this and things would not boil over.
Edit: this would be part of working within the parameters of human nature. Give people practical measures with real timeframes, and many more will be likely to listen then having no end date.
Last, all of this is coming from medical experts, which in their best case we would be staying inside for 9 month. That's not practical, and if you think it is, you're fooling yourself. However, just like every other expert, their knowledge is narrowly focused on one field, which is not economics. So we can not just listen to them, since the economic damage this does will also cost lives. We need to take their concerns while also thinking about the economy and making sure the cure is not worse then the disease.
That suicide I posted about yesterday, do you think that will be the last? How about drug overdoses; do you actually think this economic shut down will not increase those?
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How sad. He was a good photographer. This artist's talk was posted on Lula a few months back (by Rob C?):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmZ5WIqxAZ4&t=
If you rewatch the video, you'll see that he mentions being bipolar and having a history of mental illness.
Perhaps it takes an event like Corona to throw a deadly switch.
But photographers have often committed suicide (once for each who has managed it with success) because of all manner of problems or imagined problems. Making lots of money isn't always protection: Terence Donovan is an example of one very rich one doing it.
Only speculation on my part, but perhaps a big moment arrives when you reach a point where you lose faith in all that your life's work has been about: were you deceiving yourself all that time? For a commercial guy, he has a kind of measure in his own fiscal success; for a street guy, how can he ever know whether his work really had any value at all? It's impossible to measure that beyond a bunch of "Likes" on some forum, and neither those nor book sales mean you get success. Worse, as every "artist" knows, the public knows fuck all anyway.
;-(
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Each has their own risks to way, and I do not judge anyone who happens to find it riskier to give up work then catch this thing. You're in a different position then her and what works for you is not the same as what works for her.
I don't think Craig was worrying about his risk of catching the virus - he meant he was trying to avoid adding to the problem by being another victim and adding to the load on society..... He's saying protecting your fellow humans (including health workers) is more important in the short term than earning money...
Jim
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I am all for shutting down restaurants and pubs at the current moment and asking that people practice social distancing for the time being. However, most importantly, give a real timeframe for this.
A real time-frame is unkown.
But expecting people to shut down their lives for an indefinite period of time with no end in site in areas where people are not dying in large numbers is just impractical. With no definitive end date, people are going to break the rules, and more then likely a lot sooner then if you actually gave them an end date.
The USA is likely to be the world epicentre within a few weeks
I would expect this to boil over in 2 or 3 weeks. But if you told people we need to do this for 4 weeks, and only 4 weeks, right at the start, most would mentally prepare for this and things would not boil over.
See above
That suicide I posted about yesterday, do you think that will be the last? How about drug overdoses; do you actually think this economic shut down will not increase those?
Take the precautions necessary and the economy will eventually recover, without them there is the likelihood that hundreds of thousands of people worldwide won't get the chance.
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I'm not buying the economy vs rate of spread argument. The economy was always going to take a hit. The idea that if we stopped trying to flatten the curve, the pain would all be over more quickly is simple-minded nonsense. Billions sick and millions dead, hospitals in a huge mess, would affect the economy too, probably in many ways we can't even dream up.
Besides which, it's not as if bombs destroyed the infrastructure or that all surfaces on the planet were contaminated forever. If everyone on the planet stayed home for one month, the virus would be gone, and the next day the rest of us who remained alive could go back to work and life would more or less resume, as normally as it is possible to imagine anyway. All we would have lost was a month's wages. That's a silly fantasy, of course. I'm just saying that just because some back and forth of daily life has changed does not mean that civilization will end and it's ridiculous to suggest it.
There is a lot of whining on Wall Street. If your holdings were really worth what their pre-virus valuations said they were worth, they will bounce back, they always do. Wall Street doesn't hate market downturns because they're worried about your long-term retirement funds, what worries them is low trading volumes because they are in a transaction-based business. There is a link between the markets and the "real" economy but it's just that, a link, they're not the same thing. If a few traders take a hit on their income for a few months, they will still be able to eat and pay rent. They're not the ones I worry about.
What most of us actually can do is to not spread the disease. Is that really so difficult? Is that really such an imposition? I am getting a little bored with the whining.
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For those like joe who want an estimate of how many weeks their lives might be disrupted for - this appeared on the BBC website today. A few options, but none of them particularly rosy......
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51963486
Jim
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I'll end with this, from a behavioral science point of view, I dont think not having a time frame most can plan around, even if just figuring out how to deal with it mentally, is practical. They are eventually going to give up, much like with a diet that has no end date. True, it may not be the best thing when some who really need to be on that diet goes off it, but most do and in this case most will as well, no matter how much we scream to the heavens not to.
Especially given the case that for the most part, the majority are not in danger of dying from this. As more and more politicians and celebrities get this and survive, this will become more evident and will make a stronger case to most that they can go outside and work, make an income instead of watching their family starve, get financially ruined, loose all they have worked for, etc.
People don't work for society. When the rubber meets the road, they work for themselves and their family. We may think different, but we have the advantage of being wealthy at the moment. As that wealth decreases though, we will become more and more like the previous poorer versions of ourselves generations ago.
We need to start thinking about how we will protect the elderly and sick when this breaks, and break it will. We need a more practical plan for those most vulnerable then "everyone just stay inside damn it!"
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Swine flu, bird flu... etc.
And why is that? Because those mofos like to eat what no other normal human on Earth would even consider eating. And it always "randomly" starts there.
Check the highlighted part.
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How do you work with those who are naturally selfish or stupid?
I didn't get to see my endocrinologist because of this. I have a tooth issue that might break out into a lot of pain. what do I do? My dentist is shut down until May 2. We provide important services to one another when we work. When we stop working, and economic activity grinds to a halt, those services are not being performed. Not only don't we eat, others don't eat either as well.
Calling people stupid and selfish for wanting to put food on their table so they can feed their family is demeaning to them as well as short sighted. Their working might save your life.
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That suicide I posted about yesterday, do you think that will be the last? How about drug overdoses; do you actually think this economic shut down will not increase those?
We know that that wasn't the last suicide. For every suicidal photographer there are dozens of traders, investors and other business people who lost more than that photographer has ever seen, so there will be many other deaths that won't be included in the official statistics.
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I don't think Craig was worrying about his risk of catching the virus - he meant he was trying to avoid adding to the problem by being another victim and adding to the load on society..... He's saying protecting your fellow humans (including health workers) is more important in the short term than earning money...
Jim
I don;t know the situation. But she could be a single mom who has small children to take care of. She's frightened for her family and doing what she has to do to provide for them. What would you think of a mom who did not sacrifice for her children? After all she's taking risks for herself and her family aswell. I'm sure she's not stupid and understands the dangers. So do the people who will work with her.
I picked up a pizza yesterday. I ordered on the phone and paid on the phone with a charge card. I drove up and they a girl wearing rubber gloves handed me the box of pizza. I wore gloves and sprayed the box after i received it with alcohol. But there were cooks and preparers and others in the restaurant working and interacting with each other. They're at risk to themselves and to the people at home where they go after work. What about the people working in the supermarkets putting out the vegetables? Should they stop working. Who decides which people should be allowed to work so they can feed their family but you can't work and feed yours? How long would you stay home if your refrigerator was empty and your kids moaning that they're hungry? Maybe we're asking too much of people. Charity is easy when you're fat and happy. It's easy to be cautious when your cupboards are full. But we're quickly reaching a point for many people that hard decisions have to be made. Believe me, I don't say this easily because I'm 75 and in the target group and I have no economic issues (right now). But how would I feel if I was younger, had small kids, and out of work with no prospects going forward.
The government can't print food. If people aren't growing it and delivering it, then we can't eat. It' as simple as that.
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I read that in the end up to 80% of the country will have to catch this thing, and many politicians are publicizing this.
This is being repeated, with varying percentages, by different nations. It's somewhat misleading being based on an ASSUMPTION that many will test positive but not exhibit or suffer any symptoms or, simply develop immunity through infection.
In a year's time we'll know better. For now I'd only trust hard (empirical) stats from Johns Hopkins and a few other select sources.
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I didn't get to see my endocrinologist because of this. I have a tooth issue that might break out into a lot of pain. what do I do? My dentist is shut down until May 2. We provide important services to one another when we work. When we stop working, and economic activity grinds to a halt, those services are not being performed. Not only don't we eat, others don't eat either as well.
Calling people stupid and selfish for wanting to put food on their table so they can feed their family is demeaning to them as well as short sighted. Their working might save your life.
An interior going on a call to pitch a job has nothing to do with saving anyone’s life. Of course everyone who works wants to work to put food on the table. Sometimes you just have to take it in the shorts and do the right thing. It sucks, no one really wants to do it, but you do it anyway because sometimes things are just bigger than your individual needs.
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I don;t know the situation. But she could be a single mom who has small children to take care of. She's frightened for her family and doing what she has to do to provide for them. What would you think of a mom who did not sacrifice for her children? After all she's taking risks for herself and her family aswell. I'm sure she's not stupid and understands the dangers. So do the people who will work with her.
I picked up a pizza yesterday. I ordered on the phone and paid on the phone with a charge card. I drove up and they a girl wearing rubber gloves handed me the box of pizza. I wore gloves and sprayed the box after i received it with alcohol. But there were cooks and preparers and others in the restaurant working and interacting with each other. They're at risk to themselves and to the people at home where they go after work. What about the people working in the supermarkets putting out the vegetables? Should they stop working. Who decides which people should be allowed to work so they can feed their family but you can't work and feed yours? How long would you stay home if your refrigerator was empty and your kids moaning that they're hungry? Maybe we're asking too much of people. Charity is easy when you're fat and happy. It's easy to be cautious when your cupboards are full. But we're quickly reaching a point for many people that hard decisions have to be made. Believe me, I don't say this easily because I'm 75 and in the target group and I have no economic issues (right now). But how would I feel if I was younger, had small kids, and out of work with no prospects going forward.
The government can't print food. If people aren't growing it and delivering it, then we can't eat. It' as simple as that.
But by doing it, just saying screw this stay at home order, there is a good chance you are just making it the problem deeper and longer. Maybe making it harder in the long term to go out and earn for your family
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This is being repeated, with varying percentages, by different nations. It's somewhat misleading being based on an ASSUMPTION that many will test positive but not exhibit or suffer any symptoms or, simply develop immunity through infection.
In a year's time we'll know better. For now I'd only trust hard (empirical) stats from Johns Hopkins and a few other select sources.
But that's the whole point. If the casualties wind up not being that bad, maybe a lot less than from regular seasonal flu, then why are we shutting down the world?
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I read that in the end up to 80% of the country will have to catch this thing, and many politicians are publicizing this.
Same politicians who initially ignored or downplayed it.
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then why are we shutting down the world?
Why did you fire your cleaner?
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But by doing it, just saying screw this stay at home order, there is a good chance you are just making it the problem deeper and longer. Maybe making it harder in the long term to go out and earn for your family
I agree it's a dilemma. There are no easy answers. I'm presenting the argument from the other side. I believe we should try to follow the rules. I do. But government has to make decisions pretty soon to modify those rules because the current plan won't work. People have to work to feed themselves and their families.
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But that's the whole point. If the casualties wind up not being that bad, maybe a lot less than from regular seasonal flu, then why are we shutting down the world?
If the virus will indeed spread to 80% of people, that's 261 millions just in USA. Assuming 1.4% death rate, it would kill 3.7 million patients.
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Check the highlighted part.
Thanks for this, Slobodan.
Could you cross-post this in the science thread too, please.
For reference, a link to download the whole document is:
https://cmr.asm.org/content/cmr/20/4/660.full.pdf
Your highlighted section is on p.683.
Hope your recovery is continuing apace.
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Why did you fire your cleaner?
We did that because the government said to socially isolate. Plus we're old and in the target group. However, we've continued to pay her 60% of her pay. We paid her three weeks in advance when we laid her off and will continue it going forward. She wouldn't take 100% that we were going to give her. She's too proud and would accept it for no work. But not everyone is in the situation we're in. We could afford it and it's only a relatively small amount. How many business can afford to continue to pay their employees with no income to the company? I know when I was in business, even in good times, I had to squirm and maneuver to be able to make the weekly payroll for my employees. So most people aren't going to get paid. I read somewhere there may be 2 1/2 million applications for unemployment insurance this week in the US. And we're only getting started. I read that 80 million people are not working and the rate could go up to 30%. By cpmp[arison, the great Depression of the 1030's it was 25%. Before this happened, it was 3 1/2%..
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If the virus will indeed spread to 80% of people, that's 261 millions just in USA. Assuming 1.4% death rate, it would kill 3.7 million patients.
But if that's going to happen anyway, then what?
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But that's the whole point. If the casualties wind up not being that bad, maybe a lot less than from regular seasonal flu, then why are we shutting down the world?
Leaving aside the deaths, normal flu doesn't have the accute severity or the 'R=3" factor to bring the whole of a country's medical infrastructure to breaking point. It's not just the covid-19 victims , the consequential insufficiency will affect ALL those needing hoapitalisation, let alone ICU.
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But if that's going to happen anyway, then what?
By enforcing a lockdown, you would mitigate those numbers. And save maybe two million lives.
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By enforcing a lockdown, you would mitigate those numbers. And save maybe two million lives.
How do you save lives if 80% still gets sick. Pay now or pay later. Believe me, being an old fart, I'm not happy about that prediction. As an ex smoker with a touch of emphysema and a diabetic, the pneumonia that often accompanies this disease is a killer. But am I going to get this thing anyway? Regardless of what we do? That's why I keep asking what China is doing? What Taiwan did? Both lowered their cases and maybe stopped it. It didn't go to 80% or anything close.
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I'll end with this, from a behavioral science point of view, I dont think not having a time frame most can plan around, even if just figuring out how to deal with it mentally, is practical. They are eventually going to give up, much like with a diet that has no end date. True, it may not be the best thing when some who really need to be on that diet goes off it, but most do and in this case most will as well, no matter how much we scream to the heavens not to.
Especially given the case that for the most part, the majority are not in danger of dying from this. As more and more politicians and celebrities get this and survive, this will become more evident and will make a stronger case to most that they can go outside and work, make an income instead of watching their family starve, get financially ruined, loose all they have worked for, etc.
People don't work for society. When the rubber meets the road, they work for themselves and their family. We may think different, but we have the advantage of being wealthy at the moment. As that wealth decreases though, we will become more and more like the previous poorer versions of ourselves generations ago.
We need to start thinking about how we will protect the elderly and sick when this breaks, and break it will. We need a more practical plan for those most vulnerable then "everyone just stay inside damn it!"
Are you an expert on human behaviour sciences? Seems like you think you are. Maybe time for less of this chicken little attitude and stay with facts rather than your dreams / nightmares. Really it's getting boring.
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I'll add one more thing, those on this forum saying that we need to follow this at all cost indefinitely are sounding exactly like the climate change people who also say we need to stop using fossil fuels at all cost while completely ignoring the economic sides of things.
Fact is that we know, from several studies, that one needs to acquire a certain amount of personal wealth before becoming concerned enough with the environment to change habits. This is one of the reasons fighting climate change, which is just as much of an extensional threat yet just as much unseen as this virus, is so challenging. People need cheap energy in order to operate, and Wind/Solar are by no means cheap. So most simply ignore those "crazies" out there jumping up and down, waving their arms, screaming to the heavens we need to stop using fossil fuels and go about their day.
Just like with environmental issues, as soon as the level of wealth decreases below that point for the average person, this will break. And just like with those crazies waving their arms around, I am sure there will be a high level of befuddlement with as to why suddenly people stopped paying attention. But that does not mean it will not happen.
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I didn't get to see my endocrinologist because of this. I have a tooth issue that might break out into a lot of pain. what do I do? My dentist is shut down until May 2. We provide important services to one another when we work. When we stop working, and economic activity grinds to a halt, those services are not being performed. Not only don't we eat, others don't eat either as well.
Calling people stupid and selfish for wanting to put food on their table so they can feed their family is demeaning to them as well as short sighted. Their working might save your life.
I would bet your dentist is considered an essential service, at least for emergencies and I'm sure they were not ordered to shut down...but they did anyways. Maybe that tells you something about intelligent people making decisions not to get ill and spread the virus to their customers.
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Are you an expert on human behaviour sciences? Seems like you think you are. Maybe time for less of this chicken little attitude and stay with facts rather than your dreams / nightmares. Really it's getting boring.
Well I'm not an expert driver, but I still drive a car. The Wright Brothers were not engineers, yet they beat many of the best engineers to flight.
See how I completely destroyed your argument.
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Well I'm not an expert driver, but I still drive a car. The Wright Brothers were not engineers, yet they beat many of the best engineers to flight.
See how I completely destroyed your argument.
No. Anyone can dump anything onto the net...does not make it right or even on point...words are cheap. Many armchair quarterbacks spewing all over the net without any facts.
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By enforcing a lockdown, you would mitigate those numbers. And save maybe two million lives.
This has been said a million times now. People just plug their ears and continue on. The Brits thought the same a few weeks ago and now are singing a different song.
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So, our dimwit president suggested chloroquine as a way to avoid getting the virus. Two folks took him at his word and now one is dead and the other is in ICU. This is about a week after he went on TV and gave incorrect symptoms for covid-19. What a time to be led by an incompetent nitwit.
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So, our dimwit president suggested chloroquine as a way to avoid getting the virus. Two folks took him at his word and now one is dead and the other is in ICU. This is about a week after he went on TV and gave incorrect symptoms for covid-19. What a time to be led by an incompetent nitwit.
Governor Andrew Cuomo on the same day gave a news conference playing up the same exact drug.
Are you holding him responsible for these deaths as well? I mean after all, CNN said Cuomo was giving people "real hope" when he talked about chloroquine as opposed to them saying Trump was giving false hope over the same thing. Sounds like Cuomo is more at fault here then Trump for knowingly giving out real hope.
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How do you save lives if 80% still gets sick. Pay now or pay later. Believe me, being an old fart, I'm not happy about that prediction. As an ex smoker with a touch of emphysema and a diabetic, the pneumonia that often accompanies this disease is a killer. But am I going to get this thing anyway? Regardless of what we do? That's why I keep asking what China is doing? What Taiwan did? Both lowered their cases and maybe stopped it. It didn't go to 80% or anything close.
Alan, don't you get it. If we let everyone get sick all at once...our medical systems will collapse and the vast majority of patients that need hospitalization will just be dying at home. We'd also see people with heart conditions, diabetes, respiratory issues, cancer...you name it that would require hospital care would also be dropping dead.
By increasing the timeframe for that 80% getting sick to range over months rather than all at once, the medical system would fare better and less would die.
Don't know if you just don't understand this or have some other motive behind your continual questioning why we just don't all get sick today so we can get over this really fast.
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Also, in order to make accurate estimates of both the extent of infection and the death rate, won't it also be necessary to check a sample of the population for antibodies to the COVID-19 virus in order to determine how many people already have been infected and have recovered? My impression is that to date the only tests that are being performed―at least in the United States―are to determine which individuals are currently infected.
Yes, but the antibody tests have not been fully validated yet. There is a group at Mt. Sinai in NYC that has the first reported (at least that I have found) test for this: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/new-blood-tests-antibodies-could-show-true-scale-coronavirus-pandemic I hope this can be deployed quickly.
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So, all essential services are shut down in Philly by order, yet outside a few landscapers just showed up to get to work on a neighbor's yard. Yep, it's totally working.
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So, all essential services are shut down in Philly by order, yet outside a few landscapers just showed up to get to work on a neighbor's yard. Yep, it's totally working.
Don't be obtuse. Of course you will not get 100% buy-in. Nothing ever does. You need enough participation to get the numbers to come down.
How often do we have to keep repeating the same conversation.
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How do you save lives if 80% still gets sick. Pay now or pay later. Believe me, being an old fart, I'm not happy about that prediction. As an ex smoker with a touch of emphysema and a diabetic, the pneumonia that often accompanies this disease is a killer. But am I going to get this thing anyway? Regardless of what we do? That's why I keep asking what China is doing? What Taiwan did? Both lowered their cases and maybe stopped it. It didn't go to 80% or anything close.
I think you're deliberately trying to not understand. They isolated and the numbers came down. The virus can still come back like it did in Hong Kong when they let their guard and released restrictions too early. There is no magic involved.
Again, how often do we have to keep repeating the same conversation.
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Don't be obtuse. Of course you will not get 100% buy-in. Nothing ever does. You need enough participation to get the numbers to come down.
How often do we have to keep repeating the same conversation.
And how often do I need to repeat myself that this is reasonable to expect in the beginning, but sooner or later it wont be.
I have yet to see any plans on how to go forward when it is no longer practical for people to remain in doors.
I might add, if people start seeing such "essential services" as landscaping being attended to, how long before they say screw it, and get back to work themselves?
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Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are both anti-malarial drugs and can be taken for both treatment and prophylaxis of malaria. Both of them have side effects, some particularly severe. We absolutely DON'T know if they work for treating or even prophylaxis of SARS-CoV-2. Other than the one very small French trial which was highly flawed, there is no report of clinical results. Based on that French paper there will be a very large open label study in NYC on the use of the two malaria drugs with and without added azithromycin (Zithromax, a commonly use antibiotic for bacterial respiratory infections). There is no guarantee that we will get good data from this. There are ongoing clinical trials of these drugs in a number of different countries. We don't even know what the right dose is!!!
One thing that has happened, is that community physicians have been prescribing the two malaria drugs such that patients who are on these for treatment of lupus and rheumatoid arthritis are now SOL if their Rx needs to be refilled. This is totally irresponsible.
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Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick: 'I'm all in' on risking my health to lift social distancing guidelines for economic boost (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/politics/coronavirus-texas-social-distancing-guidelines/index.html?fbclid=IwAR1k4K5dvBf840UYfn_80fh3kjFiFBneADy50wJMhQ8Z2xAmwoyrmex2teA)
I really hope there is a plan to protect the vulnerable, even though no one wants to talk about it. Something's goin give; I'd rather it be controlled then not.
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Governor Andrew Cuomo on the same day gave a news conference playing up the same exact drug.
Are you holding him responsible for these deaths as well? I mean after all, CNN said Cuomo was giving people "real hope" when he talked about chloroquine as opposed to them saying Trump was giving false hope over the same thing. Sounds like Cuomo is more at fault here then Trump for knowingly giving out real hope.
Your claim is false. Cuomo did not promote Chloroquine as a treatment, he announced that New York was beginning clinical trials to see if it was effective. Two totally different things.
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Your claim is false. Cuomo did not promote Chloroquine as a treatment, he announced that New York was beginning clinical trials to see if it was effective. Two totally different things.
It's the same thing Peter. Trump touted the trials just as Cuomo did. The difference is how the press covered it.
With Cuomo it was real hope whereas when Trump talked about it, it was false hope. If Trump is responsible for those death, so is Cuomo.
As an aside, I dont hold either responsible.
Here is a pretty non-biased article on what Trump was touting, Trump touts New York coronavirus trials as progress against pandemic (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/23/trump-touts-new-york-coronavirus-trials-as-progress-against-pandemic-145714) See, he is not hap hassardly suggesting we start using Chloroquine as a treatment, but was referencing the trials just as Cuomo did.
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I agree it's a dilemma. There are no easy answers. I'm presenting the argument from the other side. I believe we should try to follow the rules. I do. But government has to make decisions pretty soon to modify those rules because the current plan won't work. People have to work to feed themselves and their families.
Hopefully the government can get off thier partisan asses and pass a cleanbill to help those that need it. Without a doubt this will be harder on soem that others and lets hope we can help them. The government wil do what it thinks is best. and right now I agree its for people to stay home. Period. If its two weeks, or a month or whatever if we don't do it we hurt people. How much is a human life worth in dollars and cnets?
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But that's the whole point. If the casualties wind up not being that bad, maybe a lot less than from regular seasonal flu, then why are we shutting down the world?
Alan, when last did you hear of ~2000 Italians dying in three days of flu? In my 64 years on this earth I personally know of no-one who died from the flu... I'm not saying it doesn't happen - I believe the scientists when they quote those figures in the same way I believe them when they say this is much worse than flu.
Why do you believe the flu numbers (which you accurately quote) but not the numbers the same folks are telling you about this virus? This is worse and, sad to say, we have not seen the worst of it in either your country or mine.
Do your best to stay out of harms way by listening to the experts - which does not include your president!
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Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are both anti-malarial drugs and can be taken for both treatment and prophylaxis of malaria. Both of them have side effects, some particularly severe. We absolutely DON'T know if they work for treating or even prophylaxis of SARS-CoV-2. Other than the one very small French trial which was highly flawed, there is no report of clinical results. Based on that French paper there will be a very large open label study in NYC on the use of the two malaria drugs with and without added azithromycin (Zithromax, a commonly use antibiotic for bacterial respiratory infections). There is no guarantee that we will get good data from this. There are ongoing clinical trials of these drugs in a number of different countries. We don't even know what the right dose is!!!
One thing that has happened, is that community physicians have been prescribing the two malaria drugs such that patients who are on these for treatment of lupus and rheumatoid arthritis are now SOL if their Rx needs to be refilled. This is totally irresponsible.
Imagine if it turns out to have some in-vivo effectiveness. Then those patients who were taking it before will be really screwed up.
Clinical trials usually take quite some time and the statistics involved are quite tricky. I’m afraid we will see a rush of poor quality studies in the desire to do good only to realize later their conclusions are not valid.
PS. On a side note, worse comes worse, the SLE and RA patients do have alternatives
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And how often do I need to repeat myself that this is reasonable to expect in the beginning, but sooner or later it wont be.
I have yet to see any plans on how to go forward when it is no longer practical for people to remain in doors.
I might add, if people start seeing such "essential services" as landscaping being attended to, how long before they say screw it, and get back to work themselves?
Has your country actually described what an essential job consists of, or is it left open to personal interpretation based upon a few vague suggestions?
FWIW, you should call your local guy in true blue and ask him to send a squad car over to the neighbour. But hey, maybe the neighbour owns a couple of guns...
What a bloody civil mess you guys have created for yourselves with your laws and ambitions optimised for an age long past.
As for that famous national notion of the freedom to do what you like, regardless of the rest of society, because it's somehow your imaginary right, I believe you only have that delusion and grand arrogance because you never spent years of nightly bombing raids where you live, of sleeping in underground railway stations, under the stairs or under tin roofs of garden bomb shelters, just waiting for the real decisive moment when the motor of the doodlebug above you stopped, and you knew it had only one way to go.
You have collectively had it too good on the home turf; you haven't had to face the external challenges to life in the domestic zone as others have.
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I think you're deliberately trying to not understand. They isolated and the numbers came down. The virus can still come back like it did in Hong Kong when they let their guard and released restrictions too early. There is no magic involved.
Again, how often do we have to keep repeating the same conversation.
You don't; you can do as I did and opt some people out of your life.
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Has your country actually described what an essential job consists of, or is it left open to personal interpretation based upon a few vague suggestions?
FWIW, you should call your local guy in true blue and ask him to send a squad car over to the neighbour. But hey, maybe the neighbour owns a couple of guns...
What a bloody civil mess you guys have created for yourselves with your laws and ambitions optimised for an age long past.
As for that famous national notion of the freedom to do what you like, regardless of the rest of society, because it's somehow your imaginary right, I believe you only have that delusion and grand arrogance because you never spent years of nightly bombing raids where you live, of sleeping in underground railway stations, under the stairs or under tin roofs of garden bomb shelters, just waiting for the real decisive moment when the motor of the doodlebug above you stopped, and you knew it had only one way to go.
You have collectively had it too good on the home turf; you haven't had to face the external challenges to life in the domestic zone as others have.
Yes, the governor sent out a fairly large list of what is and is not essential. It was about 4 pages long listing nearly all possible sectors and whether or not they needed to stop business. I'll pass on calling the police since I honestly see nothing wrong with three guys doing some yard work outside. Considering no police came either, it does not look like anyone else on my street felt otherwise.
I'll agree with you that we have had it too good for too long when it comes to war. But I certainly dont think the solution would be nightly bombings to teach us a lesson.
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You don't; you can do as I did and opt some people out of your life.
Too true. Thank you, apparently I needed the reminder.
As an antidote, here's some sensible advice from someone who spends his life studying these things, http://www.trackingzebra.com (http://www.trackingzebra.com).
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It's the same thing Peter. Trump touted the trials just as Cuomo did. The difference is how the press covered it.
With Cuomo it was real hope whereas when Trump talked about it, it was false hope. If Trump is responsible for those death, so is Cuomo.
As an aside, I dont hold either responsible.
Here is a pretty non-biased article on what Trump was touting, Trump touts New York coronavirus trials as progress against pandemic (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/23/trump-touts-new-york-coronavirus-trials-as-progress-against-pandemic-145714) See, he is not hap hassardly suggesting we start using Chloroquine as a treatment, but was referencing the trials just as Cuomo did.
Joe, of all the scary things that Trump has ever said, this would scare the hell out of me if I was an American: “At my direction, the federal government is working to help obtain large quantities of chloroquine,” Trump said.
Now he's directing the medical effort? God help you guys!
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Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick: 'I'm all in' on risking my health to lift social distancing guidelines for economic boost (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/politics/coronavirus-texas-social-distancing-guidelines/index.html?fbclid=IwAR1k4K5dvBf840UYfn_80fh3kjFiFBneADy50wJMhQ8Z2xAmwoyrmex2teA)
I really hope there is a plan to protect the vulnerable, even though no one wants to talk about it. Something's goin give; I'd rather it be controlled then not.
I live in Austin, I'm currently busy managing crisis communications for some of my clients (one of whom is a developer/manager of over-55 communities), and I have direct ties to the TX political system. If there are any plans, they are being held closely enough that the people that would logically need to know about them don't.
This would be par for the course for this generation of Texas politics, though. They think this virus thing is no big deal, but these jackasses activated the National Guard to "protect" us from a conspiracy involving the US Army, Bluebell ice cream, and WalMart (https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-army/2015/07/15/six-head-scratching-jade-helm-conspiracy-theories/) a few years back.
By the way, one of my best friends, 49 in otherwise good health, is on life support in Wisconsin and odds are he is going to die from this. Dan Patricks can go f*** himself.
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Joe, of all the scary things that Trump has ever said, this would scare the hell out of me if I was an American: “At my direction, the federal government is working to help obtain large quantities of chloroquine,” Trump said. Now he's directing the medical effort? God help you guys!
Dr. Fauci was not at Trump's press briefing yesterday. Maybe Trump is going to abandon expert advice and just go with his gut. He said he was a very smart person, a stable genius.
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I would bet your dentist is considered an essential service, at least for emergencies and I'm sure they were not ordered to shut down...but they did anyways. Maybe that tells you something about intelligent people making decisions not to get ill and spread the virus to their customers.
Maybe he's only following guidelines and just doesn;t want to get sick himself. If they change the guidelines and say "yes" serve your clients, then dentists will dress in PPE equipment, keep their office sterized, and help their patients one at a time. It doesn;t have to be an either or situation. I just got a message from a New Jersey lab that I've used re-opening their laboratories.
Here's what they're going to do. Why can't procedures like these apply to doctor offices and other type businesses?
March 24, 2020
We welcome patients in the following offices —
• Bridgewater
• East Brunswick
• Edison
• Elizabeth
• Freehold
• Hillsborough (Raider Blvd)
• Hillsborough (Rte. 206)
• Lacey
• Metuchen
• Monroe
• Neptune
• New Brunswick
• Nutley
• Point Pleasant
• Somerset
• Tinton Falls
• Warren
University Radiology is committed to ensuring the safety and health of our employees, patients and visitors.
Updated office hours, screenings, and scheduling are available on our website.
All offices will be closing by 6pm and closed on weekends. Any temporarily closed locations will be reopened as soon as the situation improves.
We follow the Center for Disease Control infection control guidelines to ensure we are providing the highest quality of care while protecting against the disease.
We are taking extra precautions at each of our facilities to safeguard patients and employees against COVID-19.
• Radiologists and staff wipe down their work areas at the beginning, as needed throughout the day and at the end of their work days including their phones, computers, equipment, and surfaces.
• Alcohol-based hand sanitizer dispensers are installed in all Imaging offices at the doorway of each modality room.
• We have an adequate supply of germicidal wipes (such as Sani-Cloths).
• We will provide personal protective equipment and other infection prevention and control supplies (e.g., hand hygiene supplies) to be used for both healthcare personnel protection and source control for any infected patients (e.g., facemask on the patient).
• We have ensured our cleaning companies are following guidelines and using cleaning products recommended by the CDC.
• We have specific persons designated within each of our locations that are responsible for communication with public health officials and dissemination of information to other healthcare personnel at the facility.
Patient Information for Appointments:
• University Radiology will not perform procedures on patients known or suspected to have COVID-19 Coronavirus.
• All patients coming to our offices should self-screen at home prior to arriving.
• Any patient with the following symptoms will not be seen in our outpatient offices:
o New cough
o New shortness of breath
o Fever over 100.0
o Sore throat
• All patients will also be verbally screened upon arrival to our offices. If considered high risk, the patient will not be imaged in our office.
• We are working with our referring clinicians to direct the imaging of high risk individuals to facilities that are appropriately equipped to handle such patients, such as hospitals.
• Patients are only allowed one visitor with them, and if possible, should arrive alone.
• All employees and visitors to our offices will undergo a COVID-19 screening via questionnaire.
• Patients who do not pass the verbal screening will not be seen in our office that day – your primary heath care provider can provide you with information regarding the appropriate facility for your needs.
For more information:
https://www.universityradiology.com/coronavirus_update
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/index.html
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
https://www.nj.gov/health/cd/topics/ncov.shtml
LOCATIONS & DIRECTIONS
SCHEDULE APPOINTMENT
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Dr. Fauci was not at Trump's press briefing yesterday. Maybe Trump is going to abandon expert advice and just go with his gut. He said he was a very smart person, a stable genius.
Trump has a track record of getting rid of people who don't tell him what he wants to hear. Let's hope that Dr. Fauci was off doing something important and couldn't be there today.
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...
March 24, 2020
We welcome patients in the following offices —
..
Is Corona causing people to type in bold? Or is Corona causing me to see bold? ;)
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I understand that Bart, but it is a flaw that a lot of people have right now. So much so that in every country there are news stories about people not following the rules, lots of people.
So it is not something I think can be fixed even with constant messaging. It's just a flaw of people in general.
You know in Philly the mandatory shut down of business has been on for a week and social distancing measures a little longer. I live a block from one of the trail heads to the Wissahickon Park and Trail and need to drive along both roads that follow the ravine on either side of it. People usually park on these roads who go to the park, and both roads were completely filled with cars, which means the park was packed. The trail is only two cars wide, so with that many people, I just cant imagine effective social distancing was taking place.
These measures can last for a couple of weeks, but until death comes to the door, I dont see it being practical expecting most to follow them much longer. It's not in our nature and I would rather work with our nature then against it.
This has been a problem in Colorado too. Not right here so much but places closer to large population centers have been overrun with backcountry skiers, rock climbers, hikers, and people wanting to find space. But the problem is if everyone does it at once then it becomes counter productive.
There is also the problem of people who decided now is the time to learn a new outdoor pursuit. Instructors and guides have closed their businesses and inexperienced people are going to wind up needing rescues and medical services which is also counter productive.
But death is coming. I predict those disregarding the guidelines are going to get a wakeup call in another week or two.
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Alan, don't you get it. If we let everyone get sick all at once...our medical systems will collapse and the vast majority of patients that need hospitalization will just be dying at home. We'd also see people with heart conditions, diabetes, respiratory issues, cancer...you name it that would require hospital care would also be dropping dead.
By increasing the timeframe for that 80% getting sick to range over months rather than all at once, the medical system would fare better and less would die.
Don't know if you just don't understand this or have some other motive behind your continual questioning why we just don't all get sick today so we can get over this really fast.
Well, I'm not an undertaker if that's what you mean. :)
In any case, they're getting more hospitals to the affected areas. Medical ships to NY and California. FEMA sending 1000 bed hospital to NY and 2000 bed to Cal. 1000 bed unit to Oregon. Why can't we train nurses to provide ventilators to patients at home? Why can't doctors start making home visits again? We have to start thinking out of the box. You're just giving up.
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Well, I'm not an undertaker if that's what you mean. :)
In any case, they're getting more hospitals to the affected areas. Medical ships to NY and California. FEMA sending 1000 bed hospital to NY and 2000 bed to Cal. 1000 bed unit to Oregon. Why can't we train nurses to provide ventilators to patients at home? Why can't doctors start making home visits again? We have to start thinking out of the box. You're just giving up.
Taking action to prevent more death is not giving up. I think what you are promoting is giving up.
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For those like joe who want an estimate of how many weeks their lives might be disrupted for - this appeared on the BBC website today. A few options, but none of them particularly rosy......
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51963486
Jim
Here in Portugal, the facts:~
- first case reported march 2
- state of emergency declared march 16: everything closed down except essencial services (supermarkets, pharmacies, take away restaurants, etc). Social distancing, i.e 4 people per 100sqm in supermarkets, etc.
- specific measures to protect the eldery. 30 dead today, 26 of which above 70 years old.
-specific economic measures in place to support small and medium sized companies, which represent the large part of our economy. People stay at home still working by remote means, receive 70% of their salary. Dealy tax payments, etc.
- Plan is to peak the epidemics mid-April, tail end into May, start to recover in June.
- Before march 16, daily growth rate in number of cases was ~40%, today is around 20%. There is a lag period until the results are seen, given the nature of the bug.
- Closing down schools was essential, as many cases came from kids with no symptoms.
- It was a pity that the EU did not enforce planned airport shutdowns, each country took ad hoc measures, which was not efficient.
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Well, I'm not an undertaker if that's what you mean. :)
In any case, they're getting more hospitals to the affected areas. Medical ships to NY and California. FEMA sending 1000 bed hospital to NY and 2000 bed to Cal. 1000 bed unit to Oregon. Why can't we train nurses to provide ventilators to patients at home? Why can't doctors start making home visits again? We have to start thinking out of the box. You're just giving up.
Home care is your solution. How much time will the nurse(s) and Doctor spend in transit rather than treating patients. Will each patient need their own nurse(s) by their beds rather than being able to treat multiple patients at one time. What about someone wiping your butt because you are hooked up and not able to get up...will you sit in soiled diapers until the nurse comes calling the next day.
I think you should send your leader an e-mail laying out your ideas...he needs some new ideas.
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Check the highlighted part.
Indeed SARS-COV-1 even startedin the same Wuhan market.
SARS-COV-2 is about 80% similar to previous by about 80% in its genome signature. It's just more deadly, and got out of containment, unfortunately. SARS-COV-1 killed about 900 people in China at the time. It is also the reason why Asian countries were so efficient in containing this one now, they knew what to do, and more importantly, WHEN todo it. The sooner the better.
Yes, China was too slow and hid the epidemics for about a month, and it spread to the rest of the world, which does not have experience on how to tackle such things. Compound that with a bureaucratic response coming from mostly incompetent "leaders", and here we are today.
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It's the same thing Peter. Trump touted the trials just as Cuomo did. The difference is how the press covered it.
With Cuomo it was real hope whereas when Trump talked about it, it was false hope. If Trump is responsible for those death, so is Cuomo.
As an aside, I dont hold either responsible.
Here is a pretty non-biased article on what Trump was touting, Trump touts New York coronavirus trials as progress against pandemic (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/23/trump-touts-new-york-coronavirus-trials-as-progress-against-pandemic-145714) See, he is not hap hassardly suggesting we start using Chloroquine as a treatment, but was referencing the trials just as Cuomo did.
Trump could walk on water and the biased press will say he's doing that because he doesn't know how to swim.
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And how often do I need to repeat myself that this is reasonable to expect in the beginning, but sooner or later it wont be.
I have yet to see any plans on how to go forward when it is no longer practical for people to remain in doors.
I might add, if people start seeing such "essential services" as landscaping being attended to, how long before they say screw it, and get back to work themselves?
I think you’ll like this op-ed piece, Joe, even though it’s from The NY Times. It’s a a coherent idea for a re-boot of business activity that incorporates a complete quarantine period of specified length, followed by targeted business re-openings. I’m sure there are plenty of flaws in the ideas, but it seems worthy of discussion.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/opinion/coronavirus-economy.html?referringSource=articleShare
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Has your country actually described what an essential job consists of, or is it left open to personal interpretation based upon a few vague suggestions?
FWIW, you should call your local guy in true blue and ask him to send a squad car over to the neighbour. But hey, maybe the neighbour owns a couple of guns...
What a bloody civil mess you guys have created for yourselves with your laws and ambitions optimised for an age long past.
As for that famous national notion of the freedom to do what you like, regardless of the rest of society, because it's somehow your imaginary right, I believe you only have that delusion and grand arrogance because you never spent years of nightly bombing raids where you live, of sleeping in underground railway stations, under the stairs or under tin roofs of garden bomb shelters, just waiting for the real decisive moment when the motor of the doodlebug above you stopped, and you knew it had only one way to go.
You have collectively had it too good on the home turf; you haven't had to face the external challenges to life in the domestic zone as others have.
Don't take America and Americans short. We've always answered the call when the bell rang.
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Yes, the governor sent out a fairly large list of what is and is not essential. It was about 4 pages long listing nearly all possible sectors and whether or not they needed to stop business. I'll pass on calling the police since I honestly see nothing wrong with three guys doing some yard work outside. Considering no police came either, it does not look like anyone else on my street felt otherwise.
I'll agree with you that we have had it too good for too long when it comes to war. But I certainly dont think the solution would be nightly bombings to teach us a lesson.
That's funny. I need to get a power washer to clean the exterior walls. He would work on his own with one or two helpers and never have to come into the house. They could wear protective gear to protect each other and I'd pay him with a credit card on the phone. Why should that be restrictive?
Regarding war, I don;t think we've been that lucky. 3000 were killed on 9-11 and around 5000 just in Iraq afterwards. There've been many killed in other terrorist areas even to today.
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Joe, of all the scary things that Trump has ever said, this would scare the hell out of me if I was an American: “At my direction, the federal government is working to help obtain large quantities of chloroquine,” Trump said.
Now he's directing the medical effort? God help you guys!
Doctors don;t have the authority to direct anything. It requires the President to do that. Of course he's getting advice from doctors, economists, and all sorts of other experts. Your hatred of Trump is getting annoying. He's our president and is responsible for running government. The guy has been getting stuff done all his life better than most politicians. If we let Fauci run this thing, we'd all be in the poorhouse before it ended.
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Is Corona causing people to type in bold? Or is Corona causing me to see bold? ;)
I often type bold to distinguish someone else's quote in a periodical from my own comments. Well, it's either that or I might have Corona. :)
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PS: Glad to see you back. How are you feeling?
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I live in Austin, I'm currently busy managing crisis communications for some of my clients (one of whom is a developer/manager of over-55 communities), and I have direct ties to the TX political system. If there are any plans, they are being held closely enough that the people that would logically need to know about them don't.
This would be par for the course for this generation of Texas politics, though. They think this virus thing is no big deal, but these jackasses activated the National Guard to "protect" us from a conspiracy involving the US Army, Bluebell ice cream, and WalMart (https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-army/2015/07/15/six-head-scratching-jade-helm-conspiracy-theories/) a few years back.
By the way, one of my best friends, 49 in otherwise good health, is on life support in Wisconsin and odds are he is going to die from this. Dan Patricks can go f*** himself.
I'm really sorry to hear about your friend. I hope he recovers.
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That's funny. I need to get a power washer to clean the exterior walls. He would work on his own with one or two helpers and never have to come into the house. They could wear protective gear to protect each other and I'd pay him with a credit card on the phone. Why should that be restrictive?
Regarding war, I don;t think we've been that lucky. 3000 were killed on 9-11 and around 5000 just in Iraq afterwards. There've been many killed in other terrorist areas even to today.
In Indiana contractors are on the approved to work list. DOn't know about new York.
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Idiot who licked toilets test positive…
(darwin in action)..how many did he infect?
https://www.citizenfreepress.com/breaking/kid-who-licked-toilets-now-has-the-corona/
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Taking action to prevent more death is not giving up. I think what you are promoting is giving up.
Can't we walk and chew gum at the same time? Sure, continue social distancing as best you can with sterilization, wearing PPE, things like that. There has to be a midway. AFter all, people have to eat as well. There are two sides of a coin. You're only addressing one of them.
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When Grandma dies of Corona virus, let the kids know what was more important to democrats than her life
http://www.floppingaces.net/2020/03/23/when-grandma-dies-of-corona-virus-let-the-kids-know-what-was-more-important-to-democrats/
The third part of the Corona (Chinese Wuhan) virus has been twice stalled today by democrats. It was reported that last night that an agreement between Republicans and Democrats was reached on the relief bill.
Instead, democrats pulled a a bait and switch with their own bill. In that bill is a democrat liberal fantasy wish list- a garbage grab bag. Among the things more important than your family dying:
Airline carbon emission footprint
Payment for up to $10,000 in student loans
Same-day voter registration, early voting, voting by mail, ballot harvesting
Collective bargaining
The expansion of wind and solar tax credits for solar panels
Requirements for federal and corporate gender and racial diversity data for corporations that accept Federal bailout money
Automatic extension of nonimmigrant visas
Restricting colleges from providing information about citizenship status
Money for Planned Parenthood
This attempt to leverage a grace health crisis is abominable. democrats are f**king idiots. When they tell you they care about you, they’re LYING. When they tell you they care about the country, they’re LYING.
This is not mindless, however. They do have something in mind and it’s this, courtesy of Rep. James Clyburn:
“This is a tremendous opportunity to restructure things to fit our vision.”
Screw your Grandma. Let her die. Let your kids die. Let your wife die.
After all, “You never let a serious crisis go to waste.”
democrats suck. Absolutely suck.
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Home care is your solution. How much time will the nurse(s) and Doctor spend in transit rather than treating patients. Will each patient need their own nurse(s) by their beds rather than being able to treat multiple patients at one time. What about someone wiping your butt because you are hooked up and not able to get up...will you sit in soiled diapers until the nurse comes calling the next day.
I think you should send your leader an e-mail laying out your ideas...he needs some new ideas.
You closing off your mind to alternatives. I'm not saying my ideas are the perfect answer. I'm brainstorming. It's a start. Rather than knocking it, what could you add to improve my plan? For example, it would be cheaper to provide nurses who change bed pans etc on a full time basis rather than sticking a patient in the hospital 24 hours a day. That';s actually happening already. Unless you're really sick, they won't admit you to the hospital. So they should be setting up nurses to do this. Are they? Why don;t you come up with improvements to the current plan? Make believe you're president and have to do something to save people and the economy.
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Is anyone suprised?
Denver mayor reverses order to close liquor stores, recreational marijuana dispensaries after crowds swarm
https://www.foxnews.com/us/denver-mayor-reverses-order-to-close-liquor-stores-recreational-marijuana-dispensaries-after-crowds-swarm
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Indeed SARS-COV-1 even startedin the same Wuhan market.
SARS-COV-2 is about 80% similar to previous by about 80% in its genome signature. It's just more deadly, and got out of containment, unfortunately. SARS-COV-1 killed about 900 people in China at the time. It is also the reason why Asian countries were so efficient in containing this one now, they knew what to do, and more importantly, WHEN todo it. The sooner the better.
Yes, China was too slow and hid the epidemics for about a month, and it spread to the rest of the world, which does not have experience on how to tackle such things. Compound that with a bureaucratic response coming from mostly incompetent "leaders", and here we are today.
Exactly why I'm opposed to socialism and government health care. They're morons. Unfeeling. They could care less. Just vote for them. Why would anyone want the government to take care of them?
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Is anyone suprised?
Denver mayor reverses order to close liquor stores, recreational marijuana dispensaries after crowds swarm
https://www.foxnews.com/us/denver-mayor-reverses-order-to-close-liquor-stores-recreational-marijuana-dispensaries-after-crowds-swarm
Liquor stores were exempted by NYS Gov Cuomo on Friday. Well, you might need vodka to make some hand sanitizer. It's stuff like this that make people question the government and grow weary of the restrictions. It seems that they're not being serious.
https://ny.eater.com/2020/3/20/21188492/nyc-wine-liquor-shutdown-coronavirus-andrew-cuomo-essential-business
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I think you’ll like this op-ed piece, Joe, even though it’s from The NY Times. It’s a a coherent idea for a re-boot of business activity that incorporates a complete quarantine period of specified length, followed by targeted business re-openings. I’m sure there are plenty of flaws in the ideas, but it seems worthy of discussion.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/opinion/coronavirus-economy.html?referringSource=articleShare
I probably would find lots I would agree with, but I'm not a subscriber and cant read it. :(
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Joe, of all the scary things that Trump has ever said, this would scare the hell out of me if I was an American: “At my direction, the federal government is working to help obtain large quantities of chloroquine,” Trump said.
Now he's directing the medical effort? God help you guys!
And you know what, if Trump did not try and order large quantities of chloroquine to be manufactured and it showed promising results in the trials, he would be railed against him for not being prepared.
"This drug showed promising results before the trials and he did not think to order any. It's obvious Trump is not fit to lead." LOL
And dont tell me this would not be the narrative in the press. You guys are splitting hairs to try and get him.
But anyway, at the end of this, I dont know how any Dem wins in November. This tragedy destroys the open borders argument, and the record gun sales just made many who were against now 2nd amendment supporters. Not to mention have you been watching the Joe Biden's parallel pressers; they are rife with comedy opportunities. If only late night television had not become so left-wing. You better be prepared for four more years.
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Can't we walk and chew gum at the same time? Sure, continue social distancing as best you can with sterilization, wearing PPE, things like that. There has to be a midway. AFter all, people have to eat as well. There are two sides of a coin. You're only addressing one of them.
Sure...experiment with things and don't follow what has worked elsewhere... Who is starving...other than the 2,000,000 people in Africa every year.
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Trump could walk on water and the biased press will say he's doing that because he doesn't know how to swim.
But then it would turn out he just saw some water out the window of the plane and made the whole water walking thing up. His base still believed it.
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You closing off your mind to alternatives. I'm not saying my ideas are the perfect answer. I'm brainstorming. It's a start. Rather than knocking it, what could you add to improve my plan? For example, it would be cheaper to provide nurses who change bed pans etc on a full time basis rather than sticking a patient in the hospital 24 hours a day. That';s actually happening already. Unless you're really sick, they won't admit you to the hospital. So they should be setting up nurses to do this. Are they? Why don;t you come up with improvements to the current plan? Make believe you're president and have to do something to save people and the economy.
The nurses are already overworked in the hospitals...where are you going to magically get these extra nurses. THAT IS WHY WE NEED TO SLOW THIS VIRUS DOWN...OUR RESOURCES ARE LIMITED.
Hope that gets through.
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Liquor stores were exempted by NYS Gov Cuomo on Friday. Well, you might need vodka to make some hand sanitizer. It's stuff like this that make people question the government and grow weary of the restrictions. It seems that they're not being serious.
https://ny.eater.com/2020/3/20/21188492/nyc-wine-liquor-shutdown-coronavirus-andrew-cuomo-essential-business
Is there any other use for Vodka?
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I am currently going through what the Dems are putting in their bill and used as justification to kill the Senate bill, and I got to say, it is making me take this less and less seriously.
If the Dems feel this is a good time to fight for emission standards in airplanes, or trying to get equity pay, or trying to get abortion coverage, or trying to get forgiveness of college debt, or cooperate board diversity, or a cut down on deportations, etc., can you really think this is that serious. If they thought it was, would they be playing politics?
Not really portraying a great sense of seriousness.
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My state of New Jersey just froze $1B in spending because they don;t expect taxes to keep up because no one is working. Unlike the Federal government that can print money, states are forbidden to print dollars. They have to get their money from taxes or issue bonds that have to be paid back from taxes. This is going to get worse. Check all the programs put in reserve funding in article. So that means they'll have to increase income tax rates for those who are working or getting income to pay for those out of work. How long will that go on? I'm still waiting for them to extend the deadline three month for filing taxes like the federal government did. WHo knows if they'll do that considering how short they are of money. How to you file state taxes without using your federal return at the same time? Maybe Trump can help us out. He's use to filing for extensions due to audits. :)
https://patch.com/new-jersey/manalapan/s/h269m/nj-freezes-nearly-1b-in-spending-citing-coronavirus-crisis?utm_source=alert-breakingnews&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=alert
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And you know what, if Trump did not try and order large quantities of chloroquine to be manufactured and it showed promising results in the trials, he would be railed against him for not being prepared.
"This drug showed promising results before the trials and he did not think to order any. It's obvious Trump is not fit to lead." LOL
And dont tell me this would not be the narrative in the press. You guys are splitting hairs to try and get him.
But anyway, at the end of this, I dont know how any Dem wins in November. This tragedy destroys the open borders argument, and the record gun sales just made many who were against now 2nd amendment supporters. Not to mention have you been watching the Joe Biden's parallel pressers; they are rife with comedy opportunities. If only late night television had not become so left-wing. You better be prepared for four more years.
There Trump goes walking on water again. :)
Yes, let's open the borders and let in more diseased people. Just what we need.
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And you know what, if Trump did not try and order large quantities of chloroquine to be manufactured and it showed promising results in the trials, he would be railed against him for not being prepared.
"This drug showed promising results before the trials and he did not think to order any. It's obvious Trump is not fit to lead." LOL
And dont tell me this would not be the narrative in the press. You guys are splitting hairs to try and get him.
But anyway, at the end of this, I dont know how any Dem wins in November. This tragedy destroys the open borders argument, and the record gun sales just made many who were against now 2nd amendment supporters. Not to mention have you been watching the Joe Biden's parallel pressers; they are rife with comedy opportunities. If only late night television had not become so left-wing. You better be prepared for four more years.
There Trump goes walking on water again. :)
Yes, let's open the borders and let in more diseased people. Just what we need. Sure...experiment with things and don't follow what has worked elsewhere... Who is starving...other than the 2,000,000 people in Africa every year.
Well, liberals like yourself complain that there are too many poor, starving people in America even in the best of times. Well, now there will be more if people aren't working. You can't have it both ways.
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But then it would turn out he just saw some water out the window of the plane and made the whole water walking thing up. His base still believed it.
See? You already have an answer for why he didn't walk on water. You proved my point.
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The nurses are already overworked in the hospitals...where are you going to magically get these extra nurses. THAT IS WHY WE NEED TO SLOW THIS VIRUS DOWN...OUR RESOURCES ARE LIMITED.
Hope that gets through.
You don't need hospital RN's. There are tens of thousand of home health care nurses, visiting nurse companies, that could provide people who could actually use a job. Setting up oxygen and ventilators could be quickly trained. It's not like they're doing brain operations like surgical nurses. The would triage the work. If the person just need a ventilator and some help, they stay at home. Frankly, people are better off staying home then staying in a hospital. If they really get worse, then they're transferred to a hospital. WE have to start thinking out of the box. There are many ways to skin a cat.
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Why can't they use home health care nurses to work in hospitals? There's a lot of assistance they could provide to take the burden off. Ever hear of Rosie the Riveter?
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Is there any other use for Vodka?
Let me see. Hand sanitizer? or Drinking it? Hmmm. Yeah. I see what you mean.
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See? You already have an answer for why he didn't walk on water. You proved my point.
When a pathological liar says something that defies logic, established science, or common sense, (or all of the above) I'm going to remain skeptical it until a trustworthy source can confirm it. Especially if it is self-serving.
Maybe if Dr. Fauci presented it as fact (with some supporting evidence) I'd be more likely to accept it. He's a rarity in this administration and I like him. I bet he's going to be fired for being too truthful.
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I am currently going through what the Dems are putting in their bill and used as justification to kill the Senate bill, and I got to say, it is making me take this less and less seriously.
If the Dems feel this is a good time to fight for emission standards in airplanes, or trying to get equity pay, or trying to get abortion coverage, or trying to get forgiveness of college debt, or cooperate board diversity, or a cut down on deportations, etc., can you really think this is that serious. If they thought it was, would they be playing politics?
Not really portraying a great sense of seriousness.
Which Democrat was it who said ... "never let a crisis go to waste" ?
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When a pathological liar says something that defies logic, established science, or common sense, (or all of the above) I'm going to remain skeptical it until a trustworthy source can confirm it. Especially if it is self-serving.
Maybe if Dr. Fauci presented it as fact (with some supporting evidence) I'd be more likely to accept it. He's a rarity in this administration and I like him. I bet he's going to be fired for being too truthful.
I don't like Fauci. There's something I remember about it from 30+ years ago that I felt he was too political or something. A smart guy but something turned me off with him. I can't remember the circumstances. But I must have been impressed with what he did or said that makes me feel that way even today these many years later.
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Maybe if Dr. Fauci presented it as fact (with some supporting evidence) I'd be more likely to accept it. He's a rarity in this administration and I like him. I bet he's going to be fired for being too truthful.
Fauci is not a political appointee and cannot be fired by President Trump.
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I don't like Fauci. There's something I remember about it from 30+ years ago that I felt he was too political or something. A smart guy but something turned me off with him. I can't remember the circumstances. But I must have been impressed with what he did or said that makes me feel that way even today these many years later.
I worked with him over a six month time period on the HHS AIDS Drug Parallel Track Task Force in 1990-91 and his only agenda was helping those who were ill with AIDS get expanded access to experimental treatments.
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I'm really sorry to hear about your friend. I hope he recovers.
Thank you. I hope so too.
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I worked with him over a six month time period on the HHS AIDS Drug Parallel Track Task Force in 1990-91 and his only agenda was helping those who were ill with AIDS get expanded access to experimental treatments.
There was something political. Maybe he got involved with the politics of it rather than sticking to only the science. I see a little of that now. I think Trump will sideline him if he fights Trump's desire to get the economy going again. Fauci's pay grade is advising on the science not deciding policy. He's not a politician or and economist. He wasn't elected; Trump was. If he pushes, Trump will sideline him.
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Liquor stores were exempted by NYS Gov Cuomo on Friday. Well, you might need vodka to make some hand sanitizer. It's stuff like this that make people question the government and grow weary of the restrictions. It seems that they're not being serious.
https://ny.eater.com/2020/3/20/21188492/nyc-wine-liquor-shutdown-coronavirus-andrew-cuomo-essential-business
Same thing in Ontario.
A senior government source has confirmed to CTV News Toronto that the Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO), the Beer Store and licensed cannabis retailers will remain open after the Ontario premier ordered the closure of all non-essential businesses starting March 24 at midnight.
Toronto’s Medical Officer of Health Eileen de Villa weighed in on the LCBO’s essential service status at a news conference on Monday, saying that closing the stores could actually result in “pretty significant health consequences.”
“With respect to the LCBO and its operations, whether we care to admit it or not, there are many people in our community who have significant dependence issues with respect to alcohol,” de Villa said. “I think we have to be very conscious of that fact and be aware that if that substance, that provision, is no longer available, that that would lead to pretty significant health consequences.”
Not to forget that these stores bring lot of taxes to the government coffers.
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/lcbo-beer-store-cannabis-retailers-to-remain-open-amid-closure-of-all-non-essential-businesses-1.4864781
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There was something political. Maybe he got involved with the politics of it rather than sticking to only the science. I see a little of that now. I think Trump will sideline him if he fights Trump's desire to get the economy going again. Fauci's pay grade is advising on the science not deciding policy. He's not a politician or and economist. He wasn't elected; Trump was. If he pushes, Trump will sideline him.
Now I know you're a paid troll. :)
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Now I know you're a paid troll. :)
Sadly, +1
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I worked with him over a six month time period on the HHS AIDS Drug Parallel Track Task Force in 1990-91 and his only agenda was helping those who were ill with AIDS get expanded access to experimental treatments.
That's the impression I get. I'm glad to have that affirmed.
Sadly his goals are probably too out of line with the administration's to allow him to keep speaking on camera although I hope I'm wrong on that.
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Dow Jones Leads Big Market Rally Amid Hopes For $2 Trillion Coronavirus Aid Deal
Trump's plan to re-open the economy I'm sure is large part of the advance of 1900 points in the Dow Jones average in the NY Stock Exchange. Sure to affect other markets as well.
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-surges-1600-points-stocks-rally-coronavirus-stimulus-deal-hopes/
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Now I know you're a paid troll. :)
What's a paid troll?
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That's the impression I get. I'm glad to have that affirmed.
Sadly his goals are probably too out of line with the administration's to allow him to keep speaking on camera although I hope I'm wrong on that.
The Administration, all administrations, have to speak with one voice when making policy. How is the public to know otherwise what the policy is? Advisor's goals are their goals and not necessarily the country's or the administration. Their job s are to give advice, just like generals give advice. After all, generals and advisors are not elected and are not trying to run for re-election. Trump was and is which makes him more sensitive to the voters. After all this is a democratic republic run by elected leaders not unelected professors or doctors.
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Same thing in Ontario.
Not to forget that these stores bring lot of taxes to the government coffers.
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/lcbo-beer-store-cannabis-retailers-to-remain-open-amid-closure-of-all-non-essential-businesses-1.4864781
They could go to a detox or an AA meeting.
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The Administration, all administrations, have to speak with one voice when making policy. How is the public to know otherwise what the policy is? Advisor's goals are their goals and not necessarily the country's or the administration. Their job s are to give advice, just like generals give advice. After all, generals and advisors are not elected and are not trying to run for re-election. Trump was and is which makes him more sensitive to the voters. After all this is a democratic republic run by elected leaders not unelected professors or doctors.
I agree it's confusing when they put an expert on to deliver facts and then the president immediately contradicts his own expert. I just don't agree that the answer is silencing the expert.
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I agree it's confusing when they put an expert on to deliver facts and then the president immediately contradicts his own expert. I just don't agree that the answer is silencing the expert.
The expert is not the leader. When you worked for a boss, and gave him advice, and the boss did something different, did you publish an article that explained your point of view? Or did you accept his authority and implement his plan as best you could? After all, there are many consideration the boss has to consider that go beyond your or Fauci's responsibility. The president also has economic experts advising him. What if the various experts are giving conflicting advice. Whose advice is paramount? Which expert is right? The president and all leaders have to consider all advice and then make a decision. His subordinates have to support the president. That's what Fauci has to do. If he can;t go along with the plan, then he should resign rather than throw stones in the path. To be clear, I'm not saying he's doing it or will do it.
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Yes, Fauci's flaw is he is too truthful, even when the truth doesn't meet the president's #1 goal which is self-preservation.
I think I would do the same in his shoes if I thought it would save lives. Doctors have sworn an oath that should take precedent over loyalty to a politician.
You are right he is in charge and can try to make people loyal over anything else. I just think it's morally wrong and it's going to get a lot of people killed.
Good luck with that.
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You don't need hospital RN's. There are tens of thousand of home health care nurses, visiting nurse companies, that could provide people who could actually use a job. Setting up oxygen and ventilators could be quickly trained. It's not like they're doing brain operations like surgical nurses. The would triage the work. If the person just need a ventilator and some help, they stay at home. Frankly, people are better off staying home then staying in a hospital. If they really get worse, then they're transferred to a hospital. WE have to start thinking out of the box. There are many ways to skin a cat.
You have absolutely no clue what you are talking about. As in zero, nada, nilch. That doesn't seem to stop you though from all this grandiose planning. This is getting ridiculous.
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I just think it's morally wrong and it's going to get a lot of people killed.
well - no issues with nuking Japan - no issues w/ letting some people die
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Now I remember what bothered me about Fauci 30 years ago. His ego. It's his way or the highway.
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Yes, Fauci's flaw is he is too truthful, even when the truth doesn't meet the president's #1 goal which is self-preservation.
I think I would do the same in his shoes if I thought it would save lives. Doctors have sworn an oath that should take precedent over loyalty to a politician.
As a physician your allegiance is towards your patients, not towards your employer. Period.
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You have absolutely no clue what you are talking about. As in zero, nada, nilch. That doesn't seem to stop you though from all this grandiose planning. This is getting ridiculous.
All you do is criticize. At least I'm trying to come up with possible solutions to help the situation. What ideas have you suggested that are new, different and creative?
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As a physician your allegiance is towards your patients, not towards your employer. Period.
Fauci is a Federal government employee who works for the Executive Branch of government. He reports to President Trump. He doesn't have patients. If he wants patients let him quit his $300,000 a year taxpayer job and go into private practice.
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All you do is criticize. At least I'm trying to come up with possible solutions to help the situation. What ideas have you suggested that are new, different and creative?
I have nothing to offer to you here, you are so far from reality on this subject that there is no bridge I can build for you. If you think you can just get some nurses, get them through a Power Point presentation about vents, just get some vents in people's homes and hook them to oxygen (I wonder from where), and you are solving the crisis you are really clueless. It's nothing wrong with that per se, there are many things we don't know shit about. The problem is that you don't realize you can't know it all and it's ok to not have an opinion and a solution for everything.
And for the record this forum is not the place to come with ideas to change how the crisis is managed in US. What we talk here is worthless for the real world.
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You have absolutely no clue what you are talking about. As in zero, nada, nilch. That doesn't seem to stop you though from all this grandiose planning. This is getting ridiculous.
Past ridiculous long ago. Now it's just dribble flowing.
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Fauci is a Federal government employee who works for the Executive Branch of government. He reports to President Trump. He doesn't have patients. If he wants patients let him quit his $300,000 a year taxpayer job and go into private practice.
He's in that position because he is a physician.
Here is CDC's mission:
As the nation's health protection agency, CDC saves lives and protects people from health threats. To accomplish our mission, CDC conducts critical science and provides health information that protects our nation against expensive and dangerous health threats, and responds when these arise.
His allegiance is towards human life and the science to make it better, not towards anybody political. If Trump's ego cannot take a contradictory opinion he shouldn't be dealing with this.
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The expert is not the leader. When you worked for a boss, and gave him advice, and the boss did something different, did you publish an article that explained your point of view? Or did you accept his authority and implement his plan as best you could? After all, there are many consideration the boss has to consider that go beyond your or Fauci's responsibility. The president also has economic experts advising him. What if the various experts are giving conflicting advice. Whose advice is paramount? Which expert is right? The president and all leaders have to consider all advice and then make a decision. His subordinates have to support the president. That's what Fauci has to do. If he can;t go along with the plan, then he should resign rather than throw stones in the path. To be clear, I'm not saying he's doing it or will do it.
Wrong. If you truly believe in something and you truly think you are right...you fight for it...even if it's fighting your boss. We have people's lives at stake here and the last thing we need is only ass licking people surrounding themselves around a fearless ( clueless ) leader.
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Wrong. If you truly believe in something and you truly think you are right...you fight for it...even if it's fighting your boss. We have people's lives at stake here and the last thing we need is only ass licking people surrounding themselves around a fearless ( clueless ) leader.
Trump said that he wants to reopen the economy by Easter. Easter is three weeks away. A lot can happen in three weeks.
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Here is another helpful suggestion by the Texas lieutenant governor, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/24/covid-19-texas-official-suggests-elderly-willing-die-economy/2905990001/ (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/24/covid-19-texas-official-suggests-elderly-willing-die-economy/2905990001/).
I can just hear some white-haired guy in a Houston bar, "Ok buddy, you first."
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The Administration, all administrations, have to speak with one voice when making policy. How is the public to know otherwise what the policy is? Advisor's goals are their goals and not necessarily the country's or the administration. Their job s are to give advice, just like generals give advice. After all, generals and advisors are not elected and are not trying to run for re-election. Trump was and is which makes him more sensitive to the voters. After all this is a democratic republic run by elected leaders not unelected professors or doctors.
The problem with your statement is a lot of Governors will not follow his advice if he says go to Church and back to work on Easter. President Trump is already getting push back from leading Congress people and Governors, many of whom are Republicans.
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Fauci is a Federal government employee who works for the Executive Branch of government. He reports to President Trump. He doesn't have patients. If he wants patients let him quit his $300,000 a year taxpayer job and go into private practice.
Fauci is 79 years old and is just doing administration these days. He always had a patient case load when he was younger. I had a couple of good friends that worked in Fauci's branch. I honestly don't understand the point you are making. Fauci is not a political appointee and Trump can either have him continue to come and participate in briefings or thank him and not call him again.
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The Covid-19 situation in some places is much worse than officially reported. Several countries, including Russia, Iran and Italy have significantly under reported the infection and death counts.
Italy has seen more fatalities than any other country, with latest figures showing that 6,820 people have died from the infection in barely a month.
The total number of confirmed cases hit 69,176 on Tuesday, but with Italy testing only people with severe symptoms, the head of the Civil Protection Agency said the true number of infected people was probably 10 times higher.
“A ratio of one certified case out of every 10 is credible,” Angelo Borrelli told La Repubblica newspaper, indicating he believed some 700,000 people could have been infected.
A large team of Cuban doctors arrived recently there to help to fight the virus.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy/italian-coronavirus-deaths-jump-dashing-hopes-that-worst-was-over-idUSKBN21B1CC
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The Administration, all administrations, have to speak with one voice when making policy. How is the public to know otherwise what the policy is?
If Trump stuck with the internationally recognized expert's FACTUAL statements, there would be no uncertainty.
On the contrary, Trump keeps spreading falsehoods and has to correct even himself time and time again, which doesn't inspire confidence with sane people.
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If Trump stuck with the internationally recognized expert's FACTUAL statements, there would be no uncertainty.
On the contrary, Trump keeps spreading falsehoods and has to correct even himself time and time again, which doesn't inspire confidence with sane people.
60% of American say Trump is doing a great job on this issue. Thanks for calling them insane.
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The problem with your statement is a lot of Governors will not follow his advice if he says go to Church and back to work on Easter. President Trump is already getting push back from leading Congress people and Governors, many of whom are Republicans.
He said it would be nice if it could happen and he will listen to his experts before deciding.
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Trump said that he wants to reopen the economy by Easter. Easter is three weeks away. A lot can happen in three weeks.
Can you provide the complete and direct quote of his entire comments regarding Easter please.
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Can you provide the complete and direct quote of his entire comments regarding Easter please.
Google "fox trump easter" and pick whatever news outlet suits you best.
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Google "fox trump easter" and pick whatever news outlet suits you best.
So, you didn’t actually see him at his presser today did you? So you really have no clue if any of the news outlets are telling you the entire truth?
I did, watched the whole thing while at the dinner table.
So why don’t you go to the prime source and see if the media lied to you. It might be informative for you.
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So, you didn’t actually see him at his presser today did you? So you really have no clue if any of the news outlets are telling you the entire truth?
I did, watched the whole thing while at the dinner table.
So why don’t you go to the prime source and see if the media lied to you. It might be informative for you.
He may have said something different at the presser which you saw at dinner. The Easter remarks were made this morning on Fox. He says so many different things it is hard to keep current.
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He may have said something different at the presser which you saw at dinner. The Easter remarks were made this morning on Fox. He says so many different things it is hard to keep current.
Saw that today too. Pretty consistent statement...neither of which you watched, right?
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He may have said something different at the presser which you saw at dinner. The Easter remarks were made this morning on Fox. He says so many different things it is hard to keep current.
You know what’s interesting about all of this? Trump can’t call off in shelter in place order in the US because the Feds have not issued one. This is State controlled and each State will decide when to lift its shelter in place orders.
All the Fed, via Trump has done is issue it’s 15 day guidelines for battling the virus. Everything else I’d state decided.
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Can you provide the complete and direct quote of his entire comments regarding Easter please.
“I’d love to have it open by Easter, OK? I would love to have it open by Easter. I will tell you that right now,” Trump said from the White House Rose Garden, where he and members of the administration’s coronavirus task force participated in a virtual town hall on Fox News. “It’s such an important day for other reasons, but I’ll make it an important day for this, too,” he added. “I would love to have the country opened up and just raring to go by Easter.”
How's that?
Like several rational people here, I disagree with almost everything Alan has to say about Trump. In fact, I can't offhand think of any exceptions, though there may be some. (Has he ever referred to him as an out-of-control, bloated, narcissistic criminal asshole?) But I do tentatively agree with him that there might be a way to substantially reopen the American economy near-term, as outlined by a Yale doctor both on CNN's Anderson Cooper show and in a NY Times column. He suggests that the overwhelming number of people will survive the virus if they get it, but large numbers of elderly with underlying health conditions and people with suppressed immune systems (recovering cancer victims) might not. He advocates very heavy, widespread testing to determine who is most at risk. The most at risk would be placed in a kind of tranche -- heavily monitored everywhere, all the time. People who are very likely to survive would be allowed to restart their businesses, and, if they get the virus, to self-quarantine. They would also be carefully monitored to make sure they don't get in deep health trouble by being alone. That system would allow a very large segment of society to go back to work, and would, within a relatively short time, create substantial herd immunity created by recovered virus victims. I think this case is arguable -- if you have the testing, and if you create the systems necessary to do this.
The downside is that a lot of people would die. Maybe 1%, and this may be inevitable no matter what we do. If nobody's noticed, if 2/3 of Americans get this, as they might if we simply allowed people back to work, that would be something north of 2 million deaths in the US. 1 percent doesn't seem like a high percentage, but in fact, it's a big pile of bodies. By comparison, 418,000 American soldiers and civilians were killed in WWII, 58000 in Vietnam. We are looking at a shit sandwich.
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TDS in the media is reaching an all time high today.
First the NYTs correctly stated that the Dems destroyed the bill that was suppose to pass on Monday. Schumer said it was a good bill Saturday, and then Pelosi decided to load it up with useless stuff. The NYTs shortly after releasing the first story changed the headline to imply that the Dems still delayed the bill but due helping workers. Then they changed it again to imply republicans were at fault. What a cluster f#@&!
Also, it has gotten pretty obvious the media is trying to portray that there is a growing rift between Fauci and Trump so much so that Fauci had to admonish the press over this during a presser today.
And my favorite, and something Peter tried to play up today, was blaming Trump for two jack asses deciding to drink fish tank cleaner, which clearly stated not for human consumption, just because it had a chemical that was similar in spelling as chloroquine. Sorry, but if you die because you drink a poison not meant for consumption, that's on you.
Last, the idea that it is sacrosanct to not talk about how we restart the economy is what really got me, especially considering even Fauci is saying we need to start thinking about this as well. Literally today, Fauci discussed that letting the economy remain shut down would do more harm then good, even for those who are sick with this.
LOL, and the media keeps on wondering why trust in them has greatly decreased.
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“I’d love to have it open by Easter, OK? I would love to have it open by Easter. I will tell you that right now,” Trump said from the White House Rose Garden, where he and members of the administration’s coronavirus task force participated in a virtual town hall on Fox News. “It’s such an important day for other reasons, but I’ll make it an important day for this, too,” he added. “I would love to have the country opened up and just raring to go by Easter.”
How's that?
Like several rational people here, I disagree with almost everything Alan has to say about Trump. In fact, I can't offhand think of any exceptions, though there may be some. (Has he ever referred to him as an out-of-control, bloated, narcissistic criminal asshole?) But I do tentatively agree with him that there might be a way to substantially reopen the American economy near-term, as outlined by a Yale doctor both on CNN's Anderson Cooper show and in a NY Times column. He suggests that the overwhelming number of people will survive the virus if they get it, but large numbers of elderly with underlying health conditions and people with suppressed immune systems (recovering cancer victims) might not. He advocates very heavy, widespread testing to determine who is most at risk. The most at risk would be placed in a kind of tranche -- heavily monitored everywhere, all the time. People who are very likely to survive would be allowed to restart their businesses, and, if they get the virus, to self-quarantine. They would also be carefully monitored to make sure they don't get in deep health trouble by being alone. That system would allow a very large segment of society to go back to work, and would, within a relatively short time, create substantial herd immunity created by recovered virus victims. I think this case is arguable -- if you have the testing, and if you create the systems necessary to do this.
The downside is that a lot of people would die. Maybe 1%, and this may be inevitable no matter what we do. If nobody's noticed, if 2/3 of Americans get this, as they might if we simply allowed people back to work, that would be something north of 2 million deaths in the US. 1 percent doesn't seem like a high percentage, but in fact, it's a big pile of bodies. By comparison, 418,000 American soldiers and civilians were killed in WWII, 58000 in Vietnam. We are looking at a shit sandwich.
Out-of-control? I cant think of anything he has done with this that is out of control. He has not nationalized industry, which several Dems have been calling for. He has not floated the idea of delaying primaries or the election, whichh several Dem governors have done already. He has not used war powers to get rid of constitutional rights. He has not even tried to load up the relief bill with republican wish-list item, which the Dems are doing right now.
Criminal? What crimes has he broken? Not even during the impeachment was he charged with any crimes.
Bloated? Maybe. His diet would certainly lead to him being gassy. I wouldn't want to be stuck sitting next to him on a long plane trip.
I get it though; we are in a Catch-22 and the media is impressioning us with both sides of the coin, another malfeasance on their part. It is not either we go full steam ahead and let everyone get this thing while watching several people die, nor is it shut down the world for 9 months and watching everyone loose everthing with several people killing themselves, or overdosing, or being beaten to death by their abusive spouses, etc.
It is somewhere in between. We need to start weighing the cost of opening up the economy in controlled measures so the world does not collapse while determining ways to keep the most vulnerable from dying. This does assume there will be an actuarial trade off, but it is something that needs to be discussed and decided upon.
Having the world remain on lock down until a vaccine is created is not practical.
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“I’d love to have it open by Easter, OK? I would love to have it open by Easter. I will tell you that right now,” Trump said from the White House Rose Garden, where he and members of the administration’s coronavirus task force participated in a virtual town hall on Fox News. “It’s such an important day for other reasons, but I’ll make it an important day for this, too,” he added. “I would love to have the country opened up and just raring to go by Easter.”
How's that?
Like several rational people here, I disagree with almost everything Alan has to say about Trump. In fact, I can't offhand think of any exceptions, though there may be some. (Has he ever referred to him as an out-of-control, bloated, narcissistic criminal asshole?) But I do tentatively agree with him that there might be a way to substantially reopen the American economy near-term, as outlined by a Yale doctor both on CNN's Anderson Cooper show and in a NY Times column. He suggests that the overwhelming number of people will survive the virus if they get it, but large numbers of elderly with underlying health conditions and people with suppressed immune systems (recovering cancer victims) might not. He advocates very heavy, widespread testing to determine who is most at risk. The most at risk would be placed in a kind of tranche -- heavily monitored everywhere, all the time. People who are very likely to survive would be allowed to restart their businesses, and, if they get the virus, to self-quarantine. They would also be carefully monitored to make sure they don't get in deep health trouble by being alone. That system would allow a very large segment of society to go back to work, and would, within a relatively short time, create substantial herd immunity created by recovered virus victims. I think this case is arguable -- if you have the testing, and if you create the systems necessary to do this.
The downside is that a lot of people would die. Maybe 1%, and this may be inevitable no matter what we do. If nobody's noticed, if 2/3 of Americans get this, as they might if we simply allowed people back to work, that would be something north of 2 million deaths in the US. 1 percent doesn't seem like a high percentage, but in fact, it's a big pile of bodies. By comparison, 418,000 American soldiers and civilians were killed in WWII, 58000 in Vietnam. We are looking at a shit sandwich.
So is that his entire statement with all the modifiers? So no it’s not good enough for me. The problem with reading press reports of Trumps comments is they are rarely complete. As everyone knows he rambles and you need the full context to get where he wants to go. Would he LIKE to see it open again by Easter. Do he agree that might be too soon and he might need to see it go longer if his experts tell him no? Yep. If you read past the titillating headlines and the first 3 or 4 paragraphs of ant given news story sometimes they will give you the actual details clear at the end of the article. Not always of course but it’s the reason I prefer to actually see what he said in context. Now sometimes they get it right other time they lie their asses off.
I don’t agree that Easter is the right time . I’m of the opinion it needs to be a bit longer, just for safety’s sake. Would another week or two mortally wound the economy? I don’t think so. I’m in a position wher I can stay isolated for some time if needed and I just might if things don’t look good. I’m lucky enough to be able to weather this storm financially ... not sure about mentally just yet😎. But the thought of a million dead, possibly including me, my wife and my parents is a bit too much to fathom.
In any case my state is down for two weeks starting today. Tim e will tell when it really ends.
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And my favorite, and something Peter tried to play up today, was blaming Trump for two jack asses deciding to drink fish tank cleaner, which clearly stated not for human consumption, just because it had a chemical that was similar in spelling as chloroquine. Sorry, but if you die because you drink something not meant for consumption, that's on you.
I saw a CNN report on this and the anchor actually said the couple died using the same drug Trump was touting. It was a bald faced lie, amazing stuff.
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I have nothing to offer to you here, you are so far from reality on this subject that there is no bridge I can build for you. If you think you can just get some nurses, get them through a Power Point presentation about vents, just get some vents in people's homes and hook them to oxygen (I wonder from where), and you are solving the crisis you are really clueless. It's nothing wrong with that per se, there are many things we don't know shit about. The problem is that you don't realize you can't know it all and it's ok to not have an opinion and a solution for everything.
And for the record this forum is not the place to come with ideas to change how the crisis is managed in US. What we talk here is worthless for the real world.
Not true. I got it from a good source that Trump secretly reads this forum and gets his ideas from it. :)
What's wrong with speculating about things. We all have our opinions about Nikon vs. Canon, film vs digital, etc. I just heard that England asked retired nurses and doctors to come out of retirement. Thousands did just that. Maybe that's what we should do here if you think home nurses are capable. There's a lot of opening and room for people to help. I saw something on TV where a group of people came up with a ventilator for $150.
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Not true. I got it from a good source that Trump secretly reads this forum and gets his ideas from it. :)
What's wrong with speculating about things. We all have our opinions about Nikon vs. Canon, film vs digital, etc. I just heard that England asked retired nurses and doctors to come out of retirement. Thousands did just that. Maybe that's what we should do here if you think home nurses are capable. There's a lot of opening and room for people to help. I saw something on TV where a group of people came up with a ventilator for $150.
Just think, maybe forums like this could inspire all those with 3-d printers to make ventilator valves and filters.
Oh wait, that actually happened. The beauties of the free market and the Interwebs connecting people.
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“I’d love to have it open by Easter, OK? I would love to have it open by Easter. I will tell you that right now,” Trump said from the White House Rose Garden, where he and members of the administration’s coronavirus task force participated in a virtual town hall on Fox News. “It’s such an important day for other reasons, but I’ll make it an important day for this, too,” he added. “I would love to have the country opened up and just raring to go by Easter.”
How's that?
Like several rational people here, I disagree with almost everything Alan has to say about Trump. In fact, I can't offhand think of any exceptions, though there may be some. (Has he ever referred to him as an out-of-control, bloated, narcissistic criminal asshole?) But I do tentatively agree with him that there might be a way to substantially reopen the American economy near-term, as outlined by a Yale doctor both on CNN's Anderson Cooper show and in a NY Times column. He suggests that the overwhelming number of people will survive the virus if they get it, but large numbers of elderly with underlying health conditions and people with suppressed immune systems (recovering cancer victims) might not. He advocates very heavy, widespread testing to determine who is most at risk. The most at risk would be placed in a kind of tranche -- heavily monitored everywhere, all the time. People who are very likely to survive would be allowed to restart their businesses, and, if they get the virus, to self-quarantine. They would also be carefully monitored to make sure they don't get in deep health trouble by being alone. That system would allow a very large segment of society to go back to work, and would, within a relatively short time, create substantial herd immunity created by recovered virus victims. I think this case is arguable -- if you have the testing, and if you create the systems necessary to do this.
The downside is that a lot of people would die. Maybe 1%, and this may be inevitable no matter what we do. If nobody's noticed, if 2/3 of Americans get this, as they might if we simply allowed people back to work, that would be something north of 2 million deaths in the US. 1 percent doesn't seem like a high percentage, but in fact, it's a big pile of bodies. By comparison, 418,000 American soldiers and civilians were killed in WWII, 58000 in Vietnam. We are looking at a shit sandwich.
I watched today's press conference. Sure trump suggested eester. But that was a president trying to be positive, to give people hope about the future. A target they can look towards. That's something we expect from president and would commend Obama if he said it under these conditions. But Trump also said that he and the experts would monitor the situation and act accordingly. They're not going to go ahead just to do it if the situation is not favorable to do it. Even Fauci confirmed this approach. The biased news on the left is being cherry picked.
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People, even if we have enough vents (which we won't) that's just a small piece of the problem. Those patients as quite sick and require a lot of attention. Most patients don't just work happily with the vent, they require troubleshooting often. They require a lot of dedicated attention from nurses. Few nurses do critical care, it's a whole different animal. Current standard is 1 nurse for 2 ICU patients, or even 1:1. It's well documented that understaffing in the ICU leads to worse outcomes, and we won't have enough critical care nurses and respiratory therapists. For physicians we might get away with some creative thinking and use of other specialties under the critical care oversight, but even there it will be a stretch.
Not to mention these patients won't get better that fast, and when they come off the vent they still need rehab and care, they can't just go home immediately.
This is a nightmare in progress.
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I watched today's press conference. Sure trump suggested eester. But that was a president trying to be positive, to give people hope about the future. A target they can look towards. That's something we expect from president and would commend Obama if he said it under these conditions. But Trump also said that he and the experts would monitor the situation and act accordingly. They're not going to go ahead just to do it if the situation is not favorable to do it. Even Fauci confirmed this approach. The biased news on the left is being cherry picked.
It would be best if Trump shut up. You and me can take his advice and ignore it, but there are dummies who believe him and follow up on his stupid ideas.
Like the desperate souls who listened to his expert opinion on malaria drugs, took the toxic hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine and died. Another effect of this misleading advice was that the manufacturer of these drugs doubled the prices and cut the dosage to half, effectively raising the price by 400%. Even worse, there are now shortages of these drugs for patients with lupus and other diseases who need the drug.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/22/why-trump-at-odds-with-medical-experts-over-malaria-drugs-against-covid-19/
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I am speechless, didn’t think it got that far.
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People, even if we have enough vents (which we won't) that's just a small piece of the problem. Those patients as quite sick and require a lot of attention. Most patients don't just work happily with the vent, they require troubleshooting often. They require a lot of dedicated attention from nurses. Few nurses do critical care, it's a whole different animal. Current standard is 1 nurse for 2 ICU patients, or even 1:1. It's well documented that understaffing in the ICU leads to worse outcomes, and we won't have enough critical care nurses and respiratory therapists. For physicians we might get away with some creative thinking and use of other specialties under the critical care oversight, but even there it will be a stretch.
Not to mention these patients won't get better that fast, and when they come off the vent they still need rehab and care, they can't just go home immediately.
This is a nightmare in progress.
We all understand we have a medical crisis on our hands. What do you suggest to help patients if there aren't enough specialists to go around?
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We all understand we have a medical crisis on our hands. What do you suggest to help patients if there aren't enough specialists to go around?
As I said, not only physicians but critical care nurses and respiratory therapists. What to do? Have more for the next epidemic.
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It would be best if Trump shut up. You and me can take his advice and ignore it, but there are dummies who believe him and follow up on his stupid ideas.
Like the desperate souls who listened to his expert opinion on malaria drugs, took the toxic hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine and died. Another effect of this misleading advice was that the manufacturer of these drugs doubled the prices and cut the dosage to half, effectively raising the price by 400%. Even worse, there are now shortages of these drugs for patients with lupus and other diseases who need the drug.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/22/why-trump-at-odds-with-medical-experts-over-malaria-drugs-against-covid-19/
There's always going to be dummies. But offering hope is what leaders do and should do. I listened to his presser and thought it was very positive. People feel more confident in the future if their leader shows confidence.
Also during the meeting, they reviewed the measures they were taking and the equipment already shipped and to be shipped. A president is minister-in-charge during crises. Would it have been better for him to say, "Well, we really don't know much; when it's going to end, how many people are going to die. And forget the economy. No matter what happens, after congress enacts $6 trillion bailout, no longer $2 trillion, by voice vote, our economy will be screwed later on if not right now. We won;t be able to afford anything. Everyone should say their prayers."
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As I said, not only physicians but critical care nurses and respiratory therapists. What to do? Have more for the next epidemic.
Well, thanks. I might not be here for the next. :)
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There's always going to be dummies. But offering hope is what leaders do and should do. I listened to his presser and thought it was very positive. People feel more confident in the future if their leader shows confidence.
Also during the meeting, they reviewed the measures they were taking and the equipment already shipped and to be shipped. A president is minister-in-charge during crises. Would it have been better for him to say, "Well, we really don't know much; when it's going to end, how many people are going to die. And forget the economy. No matter what happens, after congress enacts $6 trillion bailout, no longer $2 trillion, by voice vote, our economy will be screwed later on if not right now. We won;t be able to afford anything. Everyone should say their prayers."
Alan, I'm afraid that if Trump shot someone on Fifth Avenue, you would find something positive about it.
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Alan, I'm afraid that if Trump shot someone on Fifth Avenue, you would find something positive about it.
Well it depends if it was a Democrat or Republican. :)
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Euh... Korea I agree 100%. China so so... Japan has done very very little. In fact I would argue that Japan has been by far the worst among developed countries.
Besides closing the schools and discouraging large gatherings, they have taken zero coercive measures.
On the contrary, they have taken a clear policy of doing as few tests as possible, only 1,300 per day vs their capacity of 6,000.
The official contamination numbers are probably not lies, but considering how little they test, we can only assume that the real numbers are tens of times higher. The horrible consequence is that many Japanese people have stopped to wear masks.
I hate to be pessimistic, but I am afraid Japan could be the next major WW victim. And that will be 100% the result of the decisions of Abe. Needless to say, the motivation was to try to save the Olympic games.
Cheers,
Bernard
I see your point.
Collecting all people from the whole world in the same place is a great way of giving the virus a new lease on life.
Best regards
Erik
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As I said, not only physicians but critical care nurses and respiratory therapists. What to do? Have more for the next epidemic.
This is another example of not being prepared. Europe had at least 2 months of advance warning, but no one cared, really. So for this onje there is nothing that can be done. When you have countries like Spain that have around 5,000 doctors and healt care personel infected, what can you do?
Hopefully, for the next epidemic, people will have learned their lessons...
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BBC article "Coronavirus: What this crisis reveals about US - and its president" (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52012049)
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BBC article "Coronavirus: What this crisis reveals about US - and its president" (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52012049)
Great article — thanks for posting.
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We all understand we have a medical crisis on our hands. What do you suggest to help patients if there aren't enough specialists to go around?
Se need to educate patients. We need them to manage their expectations. They need to understand that the primary role of medical specialists is to spend their time on the Internet, hang out in forums, and post gazillion professional opinions, day after day, post after post, thread after thread, about... how bad the President of the US is.
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US was more prepared for pandemic than any other country, Johns Hopkins study found
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-was-most-prepared-country-in-the-world-for-pandemics-johns-hopkins-study-found-in-2019
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US was more prepared for pandemic than any other country, Johns Hopkins study found
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-was-most-prepared-country-in-the-world-for-pandemics-johns-hopkins-study-found-in-2019
So what went wrong? How come the USA is now indicated by the WHO to be the next epicentre of the pandemic? Why has the USA not implemented the necessary measures on time?
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Se need to educate patients. We need them to manage their expectations. They need to understand that the primary role of medical specialists is to spend their time on the Internet, hang out in forums, and post gazillion professional opinions, day after day, post after post, thread after thread, about... how bad the President of the US is.
Why are you insulting medical specialists, whose role has been vital in trying to manage this crisis worldwide? Tell that to the doctors in Italy and Spain, who are forced to decide who lives and who dies. Tell that to the doctors and nurses who are working without protection and risking their lives, and dying. You can suck to Trump all you want, but please do not offend the others.
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One of the first symptoms of corona, they say, is a lost sense of smell. A kind of blessing during illness. Now that I feel better, after 14 days in bed, and with the sense of smell back, I realized the true meaning of “toxic masculinity” 😉
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Why are you insulting medical specialists, whose role has been vital in trying to manage this crisis worldwide? Tell that to the doctors in Italy and Spain, who are forced to decide who lives and who dies. Tell that to the doctors and nurses who are working without protection and risking their lives, and dying. You can suck to Trump all you want, but please do not offend the others.
You just can’t read between the lines, can you?
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One of the first symptoms of corona, they say, is a lost sense of smell. A kind of blessing during illness. Now that I feel better, after 14 days in bed, and with the sense of smell back, I realized the true meaning of “toxic masculinity” 😉
Glad you're back.
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One of the first symptoms of corona, they say, is a lost sense of smell. A kind of blessing during illness. Now that I feel better, after 14 days in bed, and with the sense of smell back, I realized the true meaning of “toxic masculinity” 😉
A loss of smell can be caused also as a result of a head injury, for example in a car accident or falling when skating. The head injury can damage or destroy fibers of the olfactory nerves where they pass through the roof of the nasal cavity.
OTOH, it could be due also to aging. Most people notice a partial loss of smell by age 60. After age 70, the loss of smell is almost as serious as the onset of ED. But as long as you are not taking any chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine drugs, you don't have to worry about the toxic masculinity (or any loss in that department).
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I watched NYS Gov Andrew Cuomo in a couple of news conferences. I never liked the Democrat. I thought he was an opportunist, I guy who'd cut your heart out. But I have to say, he came off very impressive, intelligent, tough, showing real leadership, a guy who can run things and get the job done unlike Biden who looked like he just got up from a nap. The democrat party and America would have been a lot better off if Cuomo is nominated. If Trump loses, we don't need a dope like Biden.
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Se need to educate patients. We need them to manage their expectations. They need to understand that the primary role of medical specialists is to spend their time on the Internet, hang out in forums, and post gazillion professional opinions, day after day, post after post, thread after thread, about... how bad the President of the US is.
Slobodan, the master of cheap shots. That's all you can do? You've got some nerve really, I got out of line when trying to take your rosy glasses off? Next time maybe Trump will release behavior guidelines; first rule is to not criticize the supreme leader.
Unfortunately or not, I am still off (the advantages of shift work) and we are not yet that busy for me to work extra, key word: yet. So in between things I waste my time here, trying to educate you. I know I will fail, but I you can relate to my profile picture.
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So what went wrong? How come the USA is now indicated by the WHO to be the next epicentre of the pandemic? Why has the USA not implemented the necessary measures on time?
Yes, the US was better prepared than others on some metrics, this has been posted on the past. Without the Fox spin, really I'm sure you can find better sources but for you guys it's all about the spin.
Problem is the administration took that relatively better preparedness and used it as toilet paper. As WHO said, no country is really prepared for pandemic, talk about a false sense of security.
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Congress passed $2 trillion rescue bill for economy last might. So now we'll have even more money chasing fewer goods. As prices go up, restaurants and other businesses already under strain of no income will not recover as people stop buying their products and going out because the prices are too high and unemployment is in double digits. Suppliers in Asia and Europe will be in the same position as their sales go down. We could face a world-wide depression. It's very bleak. On the other hand, if the disease ends fairly quickly, we could recover. But prices will still go up forcing many business to close permanently. What a revolting situation this is.
What's happening in Europe with stimulus funding? IS each country handling that separately. Or does the EU have to do it for the whole continent? What is GB doing since they're out of the EU? Japan? Australia?
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Yes, the US was better prepared than others on some metrics, this has been posted on the past. Without the Fox spin, really I'm sure you can find better sources but for you guys it's all about the spin.
Problem is the administration took that relatively better preparedness and used it as toilet paper. As WHO said, no country is really prepared for pandemic, talk about a false sense of security.
The huge extent of the outbreak made whatever preparations countries did limited. For example, the US Federal government had 20,000 ventilators in its national emergency storage facility, much less than is needed. But no one figured on such a problem. Let's face it, you can't prepare for everything that might happen. And at some point, there's a limit to how much you can prepare for. How much preparation did you do at home for such a thing? My wife and I are having difficulty finding a lot of stuff that we need for day to day things we do. Simple things like detergent to wash clothes, alcohol. PLus things are 2-4 times the cost on the web because everyone wants to buy from a limited amount available. Why did you and I not store more stuff for such an emergency? Well, governments are in the same predicament. It costs money to store stuff. No one thinks things will get that bad. Certainly, I didn't. It's like war without the shooting.
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The huge extent of the outbreak made whatever preparations countries did limited. For example, the US Federal government had 20,000 ventilators in its national emergency storage facility, much less than is needed. But no one figured on such a problem. Let's face it, you can't prepare for everything that might happen. And at some point, there's a limit to how much you can prepare for. How much preparation did you do at home for such a thing? My wife and I are having difficulty finding a lot of stuff that we need for day to day things we do. Simple things like detergent to wash clothes, alcohol. PLus things are 2-4 times the cost on the web because everyone wants to buy from a limited amount available. Why did you and I not store more stuff for such an emergency? Well, governments are in the same predicament. It costs money to store stuff. No one thinks things will get that bad. Certainly, I didn't. It's like war without the shooting.
I don’t always agree with you but I totally agree with assessment.
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According to this, the right wing is beginning to target Dr. Fauci, https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/24/anthony-fauci-fringe-maga-target-147401 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/24/anthony-fauci-fringe-maga-target-147401).
I guess this could have been predicted.
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I don’t always agree with you but I totally agree with assessment.
I meant to mention also, that local governments weren't prepared either to the extent they should have been. After all, the US has 50 sovereign states. Each state has their own taxes. government and laws. The pay for their own health to a large extent. Why weren't NYS and NYC prepared? NYC has 11 government owned and run hospitals. Why didn't they have stock? Both the Mayor and Governor blame Trump for not sending them ventilators. What about their responsibility to be prepared? Between the two entities, their annual budget is over $250 billion dollars. It's easy to point fingers. Meanwhile Trump is getting them the ventilators.
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According to this, the right wing is beginning to target Dr. Fauci, https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/24/anthony-fauci-fringe-maga-target-147401 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/24/anthony-fauci-fringe-maga-target-147401).
I guess this could have been predicted.
The administration has to deal with medical and economic issues. Both are paramount. Yet, trying to figure out the balance of how to handle this without knowing the future is difficult. Even for experts. We've never faced anything like this before. Having discussions about which way to go is important. Ignoring one side is dangerous. All options have to be discussed. To do less isn't acting professionally or creditably.
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Congress passed $2 trillion rescue bill for economy last might. So now we'll have even more money chasing fewer goods. As prices go up, restaurants and other businesses already under strain of no income will not recover as people stop buying their products and going out because the prices are too high and unemployment is in double digits. Suppliers in Asia and Europe will be in the same position as their sales go down. We could face a world-wide depression. It's very bleak. On the other hand, if the disease ends fairly quickly, we could recover. But prices will still go up forcing many business to close permanently. What a revolting situation this is.
What's happening in Europe with stimulus funding? IS each country handling that separately. Or does the EU have to do it for the whole continent? What is GB doing since they're out of the EU? Japan? Australia?
Update to the budget. The $2 trillion just legislated just includes the aid package. Another $4 trillion will be "spent" by the Fed - printing, bonds, borrowing. That's 1/4 of the US GDP and more than the entire budget for one year over already figured $1 trillion. That's US$7 trillion!!! Buy gold. CUrrency is going to be inflated, maybe near worthless. You think film prices are high now? And I had to decide to take up 4x5 photography. Bad timing. Maybe I can put a digital sensor on the back of my 4x5 camera? :)
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Here's the article on the $6 trillion.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-stimulus-package-to-exceed-6t-larry-kudlow-says/
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The huge extent of the outbreak made whatever preparations countries did limited. For example, the US Federal government had 20,000 ventilators in its national emergency storage facility, much less than is needed. But no one figured on such a problem. Let's face it, you can't prepare for everything that might happen. And at some point, there's a limit to how much you can prepare for. How much preparation did you do at home for such a thing? My wife and I are having difficulty finding a lot of stuff that we need for day to day things we do. Simple things like detergent to wash clothes, alcohol. PLus things are 2-4 times the cost on the web because everyone wants to buy from a limited amount available. Why did you and I not store more stuff for such an emergency? Well, governments are in the same predicament. It costs money to store stuff. No one thinks things will get that bad. Certainly, I didn't. It's like war without the shooting.
Of course nobody is truly prepared for it, I didn't expect this to be a walk in the park. Anybody would have difficulties, there is that much preparedness that you can do.
My issues, and I said before, are mainly 2:
- US ran simulations and knew we are not ready yet nothing extra was done for it, and the people who knew about it or the previously dedicated pandemic response, were disbanded or in disarray. If you don't believe in a central response (which is wrong) then at least share that info with the states. Instead it was locked under key and just recently we found out about it.
- it was clear we will be hit for a very long time yet the administration, Trump in particular, was overly optimistic and in denial making the response delayed. This made a bad situation even worse. And now he has the guts to say he always knew this will be a pandemic although he kept saying it will be fine just until few days before, and amazingly his gullible supporters still believe him.
I don't believe in miracles, and while I might have nitpicks about how and who did what, overall I would have been ok if they here honest from the beginning and try to own it. It couldn't have been stopped but it could have been controlled better. Now in are in chase mode.
Again it's a moot point now, history will determine how much this was screwed up. The only reason I still refer to it it's when I see you saying he's doing such in amazing job.
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Here's an interesting article about face mask manufacture, https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/05/811387424/face-masks-not-enough-are-made-in-america-to-deal-with-coronavirus (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/05/811387424/face-masks-not-enough-are-made-in-america-to-deal-with-coronavirus).
This highlights the problems of supply chains with items that are (or become) strategically important. Although Econ 101 textbooks present marketplace competition as the ideal for which to strive, one problem with it is that businessmen hate competition. One effect is consolidation in some industries. At each step of the way, when larger corporations but up smaller ones and introduce economies of scale, no one is doing anything wrong. Quite the opposite, they are doing exactly what they are supposed to do, maximize shareholder value. This is a terrific thing that our culture devised. But then you end up with one factory in Puerto Rico that makes 95% (or something like that) of the world's IV bags and a Cat 5 hurricane hits. Because all modern hospitals operate in a just-in-time supply chain environment, then everyone has the same problem at the same time. And people are put in danger.
This system works fine until it doesn't.
Somewhere along the line, it should be the responsibility of someone to ensure that there are alternate sources of strategic items. Individual hospitals can't do it, it's a more global issue. It's probable that hospital procurers don't even know where stuff is made, I am sure they deal with middlemen.
So who steps in to mandate that some items need to be manufactured in-country even though it will cost more. That interferes with the free market and people would freak. But no one would want all the world's gun ammo to be manufactured in only one country, because what if you ever went to war with that country?
How do we deal with this kind of market failure?
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Here's an interesting article about face mask manufacture, https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/05/811387424/face-masks-not-enough-are-made-in-america-to-deal-with-coronavirus (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/05/811387424/face-masks-not-enough-are-made-in-america-to-deal-with-coronavirus).
This highlights the problems of supply chains with items that are (or become) strategically important. Although Econ 101 textbooks present marketplace competition as the ideal for which to strive, one problem with it is that businessmen hate competition. One effect is consolidation in some industries. At each step of the way, when larger corporations but up smaller ones and introduce economies of scale, no one is doing anything wrong. Quite the opposite, they are doing exactly what they are supposed to do, maximize shareholder value. This is a terrific thing that our culture devised. But then you end up with one factory in Puerto Rico that makes 95% (or something like that) of the world's IV bags and a Cat 5 hurricane hits. Because all modern hospitals operate in a just-in-time supply chain environment, then everyone has the same problem at the same time. And people are put in danger.
This system works fine until it doesn't.
Somewhere along the line, it should be the responsibility of someone to ensure that there are alternate sources of strategic items. Individual hospitals can't do it, it's a more global issue. It's probable that hospital procurers don't even know where stuff is made, I am sure they deal with middlemen.
So who steps in to mandate that some items need to be manufactured in-country even though it will cost more. That interferes with the free market and people would freak. But no one would want all the world's gun ammo to be manufactured in only one country, because what if you ever went to war with that country?
How do we deal with this kind of market failure?
Well, the government isn't the answer. Hasn't this emergency shown us that. That's why I'm opposed to government sponsored medical care and most other things. Frankly, they don't care.
They get elected and go about their business ignoring these things. Sure there are certain items like tanks and missiles that require government control of sorts. But they're the only buyer. For the rest, private competition is the best source of getting goods and services. Of course,there's no reasons not to add medicine to that list and have more storage and force companies to manufacture in the US let's say 25%. We can consider it a security necessity like tanks. This crisis only supports Trump's complaint all along about letting China take all our manufacturing. He was right.
I was on the web. There are dozens of places to buy masks (well, the surgical ones, not the N95, yet). That's because enterprising people and companies will start outputting them. Sure they're high in price now. But prices will come down as competition increases.
Regarding consolidation, that's not a problem First, there are laws against too much. If big companies consolidate too far, they aren't allowed. I forget which federal department handles that, but it's exercised when needed, but it's rare that it's needed.
The problem in Puerto Rico was caused by government not private industry. Government got rid of taxes there for companies who would move there. They were trying to help PR economically getting them more business and jobs. So the drug companies moved there and consolidated operations. The government is always the cause of problems. They printed a lot of money in 2001 because of the recession then. That causes the real estate boom and bubble and subsequent collapse in 2008. They're doing it again with the new $6 trillion spending that's going to happen now. We'll pay for that in a few years, maybe sooner. And it will be worse than 2008 or what's going on now.The more government does, the more they screw things up. They always want to kick the can down the road. Pay now or pay more later. we always want to put off pain. But it's like pulling off a band aide or jumping into cold water. Just do it and get it done.
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My issues, and I said before, are mainly 2:
- US ran simulations and knew we are not ready yet nothing extra was done for it, and the people who knew about it or the previously dedicated pandemic response, were disbanded or in disarray. If you don't believe in a central response (which is wrong) then at least share that info with the states. Instead it was locked under key and just recently we found out about it.
- it was clear we will be hit for a very long time yet the administration, Trump in particular, was overly optimistic and in denial making the response delayed. This made a bad situation even worse. And now he has the guts to say he always knew this will be a pandemic although he kept saying it will be fine just until few days before, and amazingly his gullible supporters still believe him.
I don't believe in miracles, and while I might have nitpicks about how and who did what, overall I would have been ok if they here honest from the beginning and try to own it. It couldn't have been stopped but it could have been controlled better. Now in are in chase mode.
Again it's a moot point now, history will determine how much this was screwed up. The only reason I still refer to it it's when I see you saying he's doing such in amazing job.
More of your Monday-Morning-Quarterbacking and hindsight bias. Plus, "disbanded or in disarray" already debunked by fact checkers, as per the link I posted.
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More of your Monday-Morning-Quarterbacking and hindsight bias. Plus, "disbanded or in disarray" already debunked by fact checkers, as per the link I posted.
I disagree and debunked it was not. Of course we have hindsight but people had some of the info in their face and did nothing with it.
Anyway I don't think I can convince you otherwise so all this is not going to change anything. The only reason I'm still doing it at some extent is that after a week of staying home I can only find so many things to do.
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I disagree and debunked it was not. Of course we have hindsight but people had some of the info in their face and did nothing with it.
Anyway I don't think I can convince you otherwise so all this is not going to change anything. The only reason I'm still doing it at some extent is that after a week of staying home I can only find so many things to do.
And your insights are appreciated. :)
More than some others' :o, but that would be setting the bar very low.
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And your insights are appreciated. :)
More than some others' :o, but that would be setting the bar very low.
Thank you Bart!
A chilling article, this one hits home for me and many others in a similar position: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/were-failing-doctors/608662/?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share
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Thank you Bart!
A chilling article, this one hits home for me and many others in a similar position: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/were-failing-doctors/608662/?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share
Of course they should be protected. The government has shipped and will be shipping a lot more stuff first to the affected areas, then elsewheres. This issue is being addressed. What to do about the virus and the economy are the big issues. The whole thing is a crap shoot.
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I watched the official briefing by the Dutch "National Institute for Public Health and the Environment" to our "Second Chamber" (our version of US Congress), and again was impressed by the very clear and scientifically founded description of the current Dutch Status. Totally exempt of bullshit or bloated statemnts, and even loaded questions were clinically disected and fully answered.
One of the parliamentarians' questions was, "When we're effectively flattening the curve, how long will it take to go back to normal".
The (only) correct answer:
1. That is not our main focus, we're trying to avoid ICU and Medical personnel overload.
2. Besides, it also depends on how well the general public adheres to the guidelines.
3. Until new insights emerge that allow us to change the guidelines or principles, count on several months as a minimum.
This was surrounded by solid case evidence, comparisons with what other countries did (insofar relevant for the local situation, which it often is not),
easy to understand graphs, ensemble models of all possible modeled outcomes and which working scenarios were chosen and why.
The Dutch "R0 or R-naught" has now fallen to approx. 2.0, but when the latest numbers are validated and added, we're heading for an R0=1. But there is a delay of 2-3 days in getting the latest ICU statistics, so thing may change a bit in either direction.
Based on the current demographics of patients, but that may be different for other countries, it looks like 2% of the patients will die. Children seem to be relatively unaffected, and a study is being conducted to see if the mechanism of becoming contagious, or susceptibility to getting infected, is different from older people. The results are expected in the near term.
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I disagree and debunked it was not. Of course we have hindsight but people had some of the info in their face and did nothing with it.
Anyway I don't think I can convince you otherwise so all this is not going to change anything. The only reason I'm still doing it at some extent is that after a week of staying home I can only find so many things to do.
Europe had at least 2 months to prepare for it, but they chose to be reactiveahter than proactive.
The USA had 3 months to prepare for it. They chose similar to Europe.
I remember back in February an Italian doctor comiong on TV and pleading people to stop calling SARS-CoV-2 a "flu". Nobody listened to him.
In the end, it was notvery difficult to model the "power" of a virus with R0 of 3 to 4 leashed upon a population with no immunity - it was easy enough to see that if left unchecked (and it requires timely measures, not late ones) it would crash health systems.
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I think we're really be too hard on leaders. In the beginning, it's very difficult to make a decision to shut down an entire economy and isolate everyone without proven information that seems dire. Plus, would people really listen? Look how hard it is to get some to isolate even with what has happened.
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I think we're really be too hard on leaders. In the beginning, it's very difficult to make a decision to shut down an entire economy and isolate everyone without proven information that seems dire. Plus, would people really listen? Look how hard it is to get some to isolate even with what has happened.
In this I agree with you Alan. Once this is over - I'm hoping much better global planning and protocols will be put in place so that action can be decisive when another pandemic occurs.
Jim
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I think we're really be too hard on leaders.
Depends on whether they put self-interest, or the nation's interests, first.
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Some small glimmer of positive news from a BBC report today -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52035615
Jim
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I watched the official briefing by the Dutch "National Institute for Public Health and the Environment" to our "Second Chamber" (our version of US Congress), and again was impressed by the very clear and scientifically founded description of the current Dutch Status. Totally exempt of bullshit or bloated statemnts, and even loaded questions were clinically disected and fully answered.
Wow, I'm jealous. I imagine our previous president would have reacted similarly.
Hopefully our next one will too.
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...Once this is over - I'm hoping much better global planning and protocols will be put in place so that action can be decisive when another pandemic occurs.
I hope so too but history isn't on your side. We've had plenty of dry runs (SARS, H1N1), the lessons were learned, the papers were written, the memos drafted. But once an election or two goes by, memories fade and it appears that the various experts, even the ones who work in national security roles, have a difficult time being listened to. They speak up and they're dismissed or fired. We set up the infrastructure but then when it speaks we don't listen because it's inconvenient. We don't even seem to be able to do the minimum, like keep hospitals stocked with basic equipment like masks and UV bags if the supply chain takes a hit. That shouldn't be that hard to do but somehow the systems in place can't manage it.
I'm not encouraged.
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Some small glimmer of positive news from a BBC report today -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52035615
Jim
Fingers crossed. Thanks for posting.
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Thank you Bart!...
Awww!!! Two lefties patting each other on the back! Who would have thought? One says "let's blame Trump" and millions of proletarians of the world unite in "hell, yeah, comrade!"
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8148463/US-doctors-hoarding-drugs-tested-treating-coronavirus.html?fbclid=IwAR2v1jHjdhfHNQ9ARu0Ob24XrOOwaBM5oIVWlJFsevQATj034XYOTlaMsd0
US doctors are prescribing THEMSELVES experimental drugs Trump touted for treating coronavirus and hoarding the pills, report finds
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"Gallup finds 60% of voters approve of his handling of the crisis"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-virus-may-make-trump-stronger-11585149792
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"Gallup finds 60% of voters approve of his handling of the crisis"
Let's hope they live to tell the tale.
;-)
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Awww!!! Two lefties patting each other on the back! Who would have thought? One says "let's blame Trump" and millions of proletarians of the world unite in "hell, yeah, comrade!"
I wish you a speedy recovery. I've given up on hoping that a better person might emerge out of your situation though.
I am also recovering from what appears to be a case of Covid-19, and after a week and a half things are starting to improve. It also didn't change the person I am.
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8148463/US-doctors-hoarding-drugs-tested-treating-coronavirus.html?fbclid=IwAR2v1jHjdhfHNQ9ARu0Ob24XrOOwaBM5oIVWlJFsevQATj034XYOTlaMsd0
US doctors are prescribing THEMSELVES experimental drugs Trump touted for treating coronavirus and hoarding the pills, report finds
We'll see if that turns out to be true. Although it's not hard to imagine a doc or two doing something stupid. Wouldn't be the first time.
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Awww!!! Two lefties patting each other on the back! Who would have thought? One says "let's blame Trump" and millions of proletarians of the world unite in "hell, yeah, comrade!"
"lefties?"
You slay me.
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"Gallup finds 60% of voters approve of his handling of the crisis"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-virus-may-make-trump-stronger-11585149792
Not much of a comment to make here except that the tendency is to brag about polls that tell you what you want to hear and to disparage them when they don't.
Didn't the polls predict a Hilary victory?
The data is worth what it is worth. The only thing that matters is to reduce transmission of the virus. If some egos get inflated along the way, that's cool. No one will remember that by tomorrow morning.
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Not much of a comment to make here except that the tendency is to brag about polls that tell you what you want to hear and to disparage them when they don't.
Didn't the polls predict a Hilary victory?
The data is worth what it is worth. The only thing that matters is to reduce transmission of the virus. If some egos get inflated along the way, that's cool. No one will remember that by tomorrow morning.
In agreement. About the polls. And tomorrow morning.
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Awww!!! Two lefties patting each other on the back! Who would have thought? One says "let's blame Trump" and millions of proletarians of the world unite in "hell, yeah, comrade!"
I'm glad you're feeling better :D
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Awww!!! Two lefties patting each other on the back! Who would have thought? One says "let's blame Trump" and millions of proletarians of the world unite in "hell, yeah, comrade!"
Is that supposed to make me feel bad? :o
Trump knows it's base, very gullible and he has you by the palm of his hand. He says jump, you ask how high. You lost all critical thinking whatsoever about him. If he shoots your friend on 5th ave, after getting over the initial shock, you will find a justification for that. Say something bad about him without being followed by but. I get it, he makes you feel empowered because he sticks it to the other side, without realizing it's all about profit for him and his friends and you are just a serving pawn. I'm still able to appraise any good decisions that he makes, you can't see anything good about the other side.
I wish you a speedy recovery. I've given up on hoping that a better person might emerge out of your situation though.
...
Some people have a come to Jesus thing and try to become better persons after they face disease/death. Obviously that is not the case here.
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I am not going to lie, if I were a Dem I would be pretty depressed at this point.
Joe Biden's gaffe-filled coronavirus media blitz drives negative headlines (https://www.foxnews.com/media/biden-media-gaffes-coronavirus)
I now it's Fox News, but just watch the clips. I still dont think it will be Biden; I just cant imagine anyone in leadership positions at the DNC thinking he could actually win after these.
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I could care less about what Biden does right now. I care about what Trump does because it affects me.
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Biden is trying to score political points by making parallel news conferences, but is really just making commercials for Trump in the fall.
I find it disheartening that someone in his shape is being put up to this. If he had never ran, the party would be in much better shape. More popular moderates would have ran.
But anyway, you guys like to rag on the defacto leader of the Republicans. Biden is the Dems' leader, and the wind can blow both ways.
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I am not going to lie, if I were a Dem I would be pretty depressed at this point.
Joe Biden's gaffe-filled coronavirus media blitz drives negative headlines (https://www.foxnews.com/media/biden-media-gaffes-coronavirus)
I now it's Fox News, but just watch the clips. I still dont think it will be Biden; I just cant imagine anyone in leadership positions at the DNC thinking he could actually win after these.
Joe, You need to lie down for a while with a cool wet hanky on your eyes. Before you do this, answer one question. What would you consider Biden's most critical failure, the one that most disqualifies him from the presidency -- that he was touching his face, or that he was coughing into his fist? That seemed to be the biggest problem the nut cakes at Fox saw. That's some fine reporting right there.
Slobodan, good to see you back. I hope all you guys, no matter how right your wing, make it through this thing as well as Slobodan apparently has.
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Joe, You need to lie down for a while with a cool wet hanky on your eyes. Before you do this, answer one question. What would you consider Biden's most critical failure, the one that most disqualifies him from the presidency -- that he was touching his face, or that he was coughing into his fist? That seemed to be the biggest problem the nut cakes at Fox saw. That's some fine reporting right there.
Slobodan, good to see you back. I hope all you guys, no matter how right your wing, make it through this thing as well as Slobodan apparently has.
No, the biggest was the answer that made no sense what so ever about the cure increasing the problem and ... what the hell was he even trying to say? I could not figure it. I wont believe it until I see it, but I just cant fathom having Biden at the front of the ticket given the last 6 months.
But anyway, I am pretty calm to tell you the truth, but some of you guys seem to be going out of your mind. Armand seems like he is having a nervious breakdown sitting at home watching Trump 24/7. My God, even if I did that, I would loose it too.
Get outside man, and enjoy the fresh air, even if it just on your porch. Pour a drink and light up a cigar. Remember, quarantine rules are the same as airport rules, it doesn't matter what time it is. 8 AM on a Tuesday and my flight leaves in 2 hours, sure, pour me a beer.
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But anyway, good news is coming out of England.
New Oxford study is showing there is a good chance significantly more people have already caught this thing without showing any or only mild symptoms, meaning the death rate is much lower then what we think it is. Two professors from Stanford are find similar date.
Easter could be a great time for a economic resurrection.
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Depends on whether they put self-interest, or the nation's interests, first.
How is it in a nation's interest shutting down an economy and isolating people - and being wrong? You remind of the people who I go to the race track with who'll tell me how they figured out the winner - after the race was over. You're just Monday-morning quarterbacking.
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Welcome back Bart and Slobo. Glad to see you both retained your piss and vinegar.
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60% of American say Trump is doing a great job on this issue. Thanks for calling them insane.
+1
I'm sure the percentage is actually much higher; build more asylums. Along with more prisons, you are currently demonstrating that you need 'em. At least you have the space to do it. When they are built, one of your private enterprises could offer our Boris a deal, a great deal, the best deal ever to take our own overflow of nutters and keep them out of Britain. Shame it wasn't mooted four years ago, though.
:-)
Rob
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I am not going to lie, if I were a Dem I would be pretty depressed at this point.
Joe Biden's gaffe-filled coronavirus media blitz drives negative headlines (https://www.foxnews.com/media/biden-media-gaffes-coronavirus)
I now it's Fox News, but just watch the clips. I still dont think it will be Biden; I just cant imagine anyone in leadership positions at the DNC thinking he could actually win after these.
I think Biden was high, had a drink too much. His face was red. Definitely tipsy. Check it out and see if you don't agree with me. Of course, the biased press will protect hi. You'll only see this on Fox.
But the best part was the second part of the clip with Madonna in a bathtub, then singing impromptu.
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I think Biden was high, had a drink too much. His face was red. Definitely tipsy. Check it out and see if you don't agree with me. Of course, the biased press will protect hi. You'll only see this on Fox.
But the best part was the second part of the clip with Madonna in a bathtub, then singing impromptu.
Yes, that was pretty good. Weird Al had a good take on that, essentially saying it ain't as easy as it looks to sing a parity.
Going back to Biden, see my comment of quarantine rules being airport rules. ;)
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If only this were funny.
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If only this were funny.
That is funny. Good one Peter.
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If only this were funny.
Bummer! I had it saved but didn't think these guys can take another thing for today.
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I'll agree, this one is pretty good.
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I am not going to lie, if I were a Dem I would be pretty depressed at this point.
Joe Biden's gaffe-filled coronavirus media blitz drives negative headlines (https://www.foxnews.com/media/biden-media-gaffes-coronavirus)
I now it's Fox News, but just watch the clips. I still dont think it will be Biden; I just cant imagine anyone in leadership positions at the DNC thinking he could actually win after these.
That clip was indeed not favourable for Biden and his campaign. It was a good opportunity but completely wasted.
Firstly, instead of live streaming, Biden should have practiced it and taped it. They had the full control of the speech and they really butchered it.
Secondly, Biden looked tired and confused. No speech would have been better than the disappointing performance.
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But anyway, I am pretty calm to tell you the truth, but some of you guys seem to be going out of your mind. Armand seems like he is having a nervious breakdown sitting at home watching Trump 24/7. My God, even if I did that, I would loose it too.
Get outside man, and enjoy the fresh air, even if it just on your porch. Pour a drink and light up a cigar. Remember, quarantine rules are the same as airport rules, it doesn't matter what time it is. 8 AM on a Tuesday and my flight leaves in 2 hours, sure, pour me a beer.
You give me too much credit, or you need to think this so the argument is more fulfilling from your end.
I watch zero Trump. Occasionally I look to see what policy changes have been made because that's what I care about. The missteps that he does are all over the net, very well covered, I need no effort to find them.
Right now there is a snowball coming our way (already in NYC and other places), what Trump does now can change little. That ship has sailed.
And I'm far from a nervous breakdown, I make those points with disappointment more than anything else. Disappointment that apparently rational people can fall so easily for whatever they are told. My reply to Slobodan was more proof of concept for a taste of his own medicine.
Luckily I have a decent sized yard that I can walk around the house and do some gardening; I feel empathetic for those in apartments building who cannot get out.
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That clip was indeed not favourable for Biden and his campaign. It was a good opportunity but completely wasted.
Firstly, instead of live streaming, Biden should have practiced it and taped it. They had the full control of the speech and they really butchered it.
Secondly, Biden looked tired and confused. No speech would have been better than the disappointing performance.
Well, you know how it is when you wake up from a nap. Or had a couple too many? Not sure which.
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In the idea off that mask, what happens after 10 days of quarantine.
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You give me too much credit, or you need to think this so the argument is more fulfilling from your end.
I watch zero Trump. Occasionally I look to see what policy changes have been made because that's what I care about. The missteps that he does are all over the net, very well covered, I need no effort to find them.
Right now there is a snowball coming our way (already in NYC and other places), what Trump does now can change little. That ship has sailed.
And I'm far from a nervous breakdown, I make those points with disappointment more than anything else. Disappointment that apparently rational people can fall so easily for whatever they are told. My reply to Slobodan was more proof of concept for a taste of his own medicine.
Luckily I have a decent sized yard that I can walk around the house and do some gardening; I feel empathetic for those in apartments building who cannot get out.
His "missteps" are cherry-picked and taken out of context. When you do that, you can make anyone look like an axe murderer. IF you would watch his complete original statements, you'd get a different impression. But since you're not interested in that, but only looking to see him in a bad light, I would suggest you continue watching abstracts presented by people who don;t like him. We wouldn't want you to get any other ideas about him.
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In the idea off that mask, what happens after 10 days of quarantine.
In our home, wE were at that after 3 days.
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If only this were funny.
Along the same lines, editorial cartoonist Clay Bennett in the Chattanooga (U.S. state of Tennessee) Times Free Press (attached).
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His "missteps" are cherry-picked and taken out of context. When you do that, you can make anyone look like an axe murderer. IF you would watch his complete original statements, you'd get a different impression. But since you're not interested in that, but only looking to see him in a bad light, I would suggest you continue watching abstracts presented by people who don;t like him. We wouldn't want you to get any other ideas about him.
Trump speaks (and thinks) at the level of a middle schooler. I guess that suits some of his supporters. As for cherry picking, he offers such a vast array of cherries that one could pick with closed eyes and still find something stupid or wrong. Or both.
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newyorkermag: An early look at next week's cover, “Grand Central Terminal," by Eric Drooker. #NewYorkerCovers
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newyorkermag: An early look at next week's cover, “Grand Central Terminal," by Eric Drooker. #NewYorkerCovers
Clever cover!
Rob
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Along the same lines, editorial cartoonist Clay Bennett in the Chattanooga (U.S. state of Tennessee) Times Free Press (attached).
That's funny too, Chris. How about a cartoon showing Fauci and Trump 6 feet apart? :)
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newyorkermag: An early look at next week's cover, “Grand Central Terminal," by Eric Drooker. #NewYorkerCovers
That is an expensive magazine. Almost as much as the annual LuLa subscription.
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Trump speaks (and thinks) at the level of a middle schooler. I guess that suits some of his supporters. As for cherry picking, he offers such a vast array of cherries that one could pick with closed eyes and still find something stupid or wrong. Or both.
Leaving aside the swipe at my personal intelligence, I agree that Trump is not an eloquent speaker and often has dangling modifiers and generally lacks effective syntax. But if you're not biased, and listen to what he's saying, you can understand his drift. But if you just want to find something to criticize, you give no slack and just attack. The fact is he's not a speaker, a debater, and his New Yorka style of speaking grates a lot of people. Forgetaboutit. But fair minded people listen to what he's saying and is able to understand his point while the biased news media makes believe they don't understand just for their own political beliefs.
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That is an expensive magazine. Almost as much as the annual LuLa subscription.
With all the inflation the government is creating with the new rescue bill, the magazine price will be $5 higher next year. >:(
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newyorkermag: An early look at next week's cover, “Grand Central Terminal," by Eric Drooker. #NewYorkerCovers
That's a great cover. In case people don't know, the little circular booth in the middle is the information booth that people go to to find out where the specific ticket booth they have to pay their fare for their train. Those are located against the walls although not shown in the cartoon. It's cute that the info givers are standing 6 feet apart.
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You know what would be funny - a picture of Trump after the photographer extracted his tweet machine from his hands...... like what happened with Churchill when his cigar was extracted suddenly.
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I just realized that I'm one of those who's suppose to self-isolate having been to NYC within the last 14 days. I was there on Mar 12 visiting a dentist making March 26, tomorrow, the 14th day. Fortunately I don't feel sick and hope to stay that way. My wife would be pissed if I infected her. :)
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newyorkermag: An early look at next week's cover, “Grand Central Terminal," by Eric Drooker. #NewYorkerCovers
Here's an actually photo of the situation. The cartoon just substituted a guy cleaning up for the mailman in the photo. You can see the ticket booths around the perimeter in the photo.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/25/new-york-andrew-cuomo-coronavirus-cases
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Sorry, not a mailman but rather a train conductor.
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You can still go out for a coffee.
Like this man (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vb3GwaaGQqQ)
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You can still go out for a coffee.
Like this man (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vb3GwaaGQqQ)
Love it!
and as a side note I still understand quite a lot of Italian, reminiscence of my high school days when I was watching Van Damme movies on Italian channels.
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His "missteps" are cherry-picked and taken out of context. When you do that, you can make anyone look like an axe murderer. IF you would watch his complete original statements, you'd get a different impression. But since you're not interested in that, but only looking to see him in a bad light, I would suggest you continue watching abstracts presented by people who don;t like him. We wouldn't want you to get any other ideas about him.
I'm sure deep down he's a very nice guy and a great leader but you are missing the point. I look at those snippets only for entertainment value, not for actual info.
As I said, they are quite abundant, even if I come just on this site and I'll get some.
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How is it in a nation's interest shutting down an economy and isolating people - and being wrong?
Fewer avoidable deaths. We like to think of ourselves as a humane society.
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Welcome back Bart and Slobo. Glad to see you both retained your piss and vinegar.
Thanks.
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If only this were funny.
True.
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The fact is he's not a speaker, a debater, and his New Yorka style of speaking grates a lot of people. Forgetaboutit.
Normally, I would never think of objecting to someone's accent, but I fear you've been living too long in Noo Joisey. The correct pronunciation, and canonical spelling, is "fuhgeddaboudit" (https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=fuhgeddaboudit).
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Fewer avoidable deaths. We like to think of ourselves as a humane society.
How is shutting down an economy and bankrupting a nation so people can't feed their families supporting a humane society? All actions have consequences. Sometimes the road to hell is paved with good intentions. No one is evil, here. The consequences of our choices will have negative ramifications whatever we do. There are no simple answers, There will be casualties regardless of our choices.
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Normally, I would never think of objecting to someone's accent, but I fear you've been living too long in Noo Joisey. The correct pronunciation, and canonical spelling, is "fuhgeddaboudit" (https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=fuhgeddaboudit).
Your rite. As a previous life-long New Yorka I shud hab nown betta.
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Your rite. As a previous life-long New Yorka I shud hab nown betta.
Glad you agree. The pandemic is no reason to relax our linguistic standards. I recommend that you listen to Andrew Cuomo's daily televised Noo Yawk situation reports for a refresher course on how to tawk rite.
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Where are people buying alcohol like isopropyl? Any drinking alcohol substitutes that could be used for antiseptic cleaning?
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Speaker Nancy Pelosi complements and supports the new $2 trillion dollar rescue bill looking forward to more iterations to come. Obviously her 401K retirement account and wealth tanked just like the rest of us and what's a few trillion if she could rescue it never mind the rest of the people? Pretty soon it will cost 40 bucks for a roll of 35mm film and 20 bucks for a Big Mac.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/politics/cnntv-nancy-pelosi-stimulus-bill/index.html
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Are these Congressional emoluments?
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"The World Health Organization praised the Trump administration’s response to the COVID-19 outbreak, which has spread to all 50 states and infected at least 55,568 U.S. citizens.
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus singled out President Donald Trump, whom he said he spoke with Tuesday, for doing a “great job” in leveraging public and private sector resources to fight the pandemic. "
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/who-officials-praise-us-leaders-on-pandemic-response-trump-is-doing-all-he-can.html
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Pretty soon it will cost 40 bucks for a roll of 35mm film and 20 bucks for a Big Mac.
The good thing is that both these items are not absolutely essential, and you can save big by switching to other alternatives.
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Inflation raises the costs of all things.
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"The World Health Organization praised the Trump administration’s response to the COVID-19 outbreak, which has spread to all 50 states and infected at least 55,568 U.S. citizens.
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus singled out President Donald Trump, whom he said he spoke with Tuesday, for doing a “great job” in leveraging public and private sector resources to fight the pandemic. "
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/who-officials-praise-us-leaders-on-pandemic-response-trump-is-doing-all-he-can.html
He's trying to appease Trump's ego so Trump doesn't stop the restrictions which in turn will benefit the rest of the world. Who said doctors can't be politicians?
That aside I don't doubt that the administration is trying harder now, but once the cat is out of the bag is difficult to significantly alter course. Missed opportunities are not coming back.
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As I wrote in an earlier post, experts write papers and memos and people ignore them, https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25/trump-coronavirus-national-security-council-149285 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25/trump-coronavirus-national-security-council-149285).
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He's trying to appease Trump's ego so Trump doesn't stop the restrictions which in turn will benefit the rest of the world. Who said doctors can't be politicians?
That aside I don't doubt that the administration is trying harder now, but once the cat is out of the bag is difficult to significantly alter course. Missed opportunities are not coming back.
Like I said, Trump can walk on water and you guys will find something wrong with it. 60% of the American people don't believe you anymore. The other 40% are Democrats.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-virus-may-make-trump-stronger-11585149792
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As I wrote in an earlier post, experts write papers and memos and people ignore them, https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25/trump-coronavirus-national-security-council-149285 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25/trump-coronavirus-national-security-council-149285).
Do you really think that Trump or any president is going to read much less implement an unapproved plan in a playbook called, "Playbook for Early Response to High-Consequence Emerging Infectious Disease Threats and Biological Incidents"? :o
By the way, did you ever entirely read your cameras instruction manual and follow all it's recommendations?
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In any case, what he did was put together an expert team that we see on TV every day at his news conferences. The Playbook doesn;t deal with the dynamic changes that occur in any war. Responses have to be tailored to the conditions on the ground not some fixed in time precept of a four year old book.
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Senate passes $2 trillion rescue package in an intent to put off the recession. Of course with so many people not producing anything, prices are going to skyrocket as the legislation helicopters in dollars bills to people who are not working. This is going to be a disaster. For example, the airline industry, corporation and employees, will get bailed out. Although 87% of airline traffic has ceased, the bill will allow 100% of the airline employee to continue to get full pay. WHile I understand the concern, 90% of those people are not doing anything productive for that pay. What are they doing, flying empty jets?
Money represents productivity. All this bill does is making everything hugely expensive as inflation hits. Then, with no one still flying two months from now, they're already projecting doing another continuing rescue bill. How many rounds will they do? Why don;t we all quit our jobs, stay home, and collect government checks? The government and Trump is just trying to get past the election. Then the whole thing is going to collapse. If we really can't start working despite Trump's hope to get the economy going again, we're really screwed after all this spending. This is what Socialism looks like. There should just be a small package to help people with unemployment and that's it. Buy gold. Your dollar isn't going to be worth anything.
https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-edit-schumer-senate-stimulus-20200325-k4llrhzt6nhktb4ih4uho2q7u4-story.html
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Oh, in addition to the $2 trillion, the bill will give authority to the NY Fed to issue another $4 trillion in other debt by printing and borrowing. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will have authority to write the checks with no oversight. All this will increase inflation and debt and impoverish our children. And this is only to last for three months with the hope the economy can be turned around. After all, how long can a family live on a thousand dollars or so?
If the economy is still in a dive, they'll move to Round 2 of printing. Do I hear Weimar German Republic, Zimbabwe, Venezuela, ?
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Like I said, Trump can walk on water and you guys will find something wrong with it.
Trump cannot walk on water.
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The last few pages of this thread have been about Biden and Trump (with all the sagacity I've come to expect of those who post here on the subjects). It's supposed to be about "COVID-19 updates", as it's title ever-so-subtly implies.
Stay on track. If you want to bicker about politics in the infantile, tediously repetitive way that seems to excite you all so much, start another thread.
Jeremy
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Coronavirus: Is it too much to ask for an actual plan?
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/coronavirus-is-it-too-much-to-ask-for-an-actual-plan/
In difficult and frightening times, it's normal for a certain amount of confusion and misinformation to spread. The existence of social media and hyperpartisan "news" outlets undoubtedly exacerbate the problem, but even those are just exaggerated versions of things that have been with us for some time.
But two things make the torrent of coronavirus misinformation distinct. The first one is simple: much of the misinformation starts at the top, where President Donald Trump seems willing to say whatever crosses his mind when he finds himself in front of a microphone.
But the second is trickier: unlike a national disaster or terrorist attack, we have no models for how long the coronavirus pandemic will last or how we will recover from it. There's no "we'll rebuild" mindset that people can use to make sense out of what's going to happen and guide their expectations.
P.S. To Jeremy, the article link I posted above outlines a path to improving the response of managing the Covid-19 crisis.
If that's not what you expect, then I'll delete the post.
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Trump cannot walk on water.
apparently, he can't swim either.
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A handful of stone-throwing youngsters tried to prevent ambulances from transferring 28 elderly coronavirus patients to a residence in their town in southern Spain, police said on Wednesday, March 25.
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/coronavirus-ambulances-carrying-sick-pensioners-stoned-in-spain
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Do you really think that Trump or any president is going to read much less implement an unapproved plan in a playbook called, "Playbook for Early Response to High-Consequence Emerging Infectious Disease Threats and Biological Incidents"? :o
By the way, did you ever entirely read your cameras instruction manual and follow all it's recommendations?
I bet Presidents listen to the 'Playbook of what to do if the Russian or Chinese attack a Carrier Group'. Of course I don't know the details myself - but there is probably a lot more profit to be made from building an enormous military machine to protect US citizens, than in building a healthcare system with a certain amount of resilience to stop thousands dying from the occasional pandemic....
Jim
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Do you really think that Trump or any president is going to read much less implement an unapproved plan in a playbook called, "Playbook for Early Response to High-Consequence Emerging Infectious Disease Threats and Biological Incidents"? :o
By the way, did you ever entirely read your cameras instruction manual and follow all it's recommendations?
You're fixating on Trump too much, although I thought it was gratuitous for the article to have a pic of him. I guess it's the case du jour though. But it's a more widespread issue, as you rightly point out by the question about camera manuals. The irony is that a lot of online queries that people have about their cameras can be answered by their manuals, so it's a good case in point. Maybe people don't read their manuals enough, but they should, shouldn't they?
This behaviour isn't limited to the government in office. I wrote computer software for 25 years and we were always told to document our code, even though very little budget was allocated to that. By year 15 of my career, that just made me laugh. I never saw anyone actually read any documentation. People just assumed that anything old was trash and proceeded to re-invent the wheel and repeat the same errors as the previous project. This is not 100% true, but it's a lot true.
We staff buildings with people who study past occurrences of something, then no one pays attention to their findings. It's because of arrogance, ego, laziness, incompetence, any number of things. There might be another human failing at work here. People often have a high opinion of their own work while at the same time thinking that what other people do is trivial. You can see the obvious contradiction with that point of view.
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The last few pages of this thread have been about Biden and Trump (with all the sagacity I've come to expect of those who post here on the subjects). It's supposed to be about "COVID-19 updates", as it's title ever-so-subtly implies.
Stay on track. If you want to bicker about politics in the infantile, tediously repetitive way that seems to excite you all so much, start another thread.
Jeremy
I'm afraid that ship has sailed 30 pages ago. I thought about closing the thread but if this helps the other topic in Covid to stay on track I think it's still worth it as long as it doesn't become totally irrelevant.
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You're fixating on Trump too much, although I thought it was gratuitous for the article to have a pic of him. I guess it's the case du jour though. But it's a more widespread issue, as you rightly point out by the question about camera manuals. The irony is that a lot of online queries that people have about their cameras can be answered by their manuals, so it's a good case in point. Maybe people don't read their manuals enough, but they should, shouldn't they?
This behaviour isn't limited to the government in office. I wrote computer software for 25 years and we were always told to document our code, even though very little budget was allocated to that. By year 15 of my career, that just made me laugh. I never saw anyone actually read any documentation. People just assumed that anything old was trash and proceeded to re-invent the wheel and repeat the same errors as the previous project. This is not 100% true, but it's a lot true.
We staff buildings with people who study past occurrences of something, then no one pays attention to their findings. It's because of arrogance, ego, laziness, incompetence, any number of things. There might be another human failing at work here. People often have a high opinion of their own work while at the same time thinking that what other people do is trivial. You can see the obvious contradiction with that point of view.
I actually read all 200-300 pages of the manual for my Sony RX100iv. There were so many features, I just had to read it to know what to do. Too laborious. Problem is you forget it after a while if you don;t use the camera. So I made a checklist of where all hundred settings or so should be.
Recently I bought a Chamonix 4x5 large format film camera from China. No instructions at all. Zip. Nada. So I sent email to their rep and he would respond to my questions with answers like this: "Just move the knobs a little each way and you'll figure it out. You won't break anything." Kind of frustrating. I went on the web and watched videos to learn stuff. Aslo moved the knobs a lot and hoped I didn't break anything. I moaned a lot about it. But compared to the Sony manual, well no manual, it was kind of pleasant.
What's the expression? When all else fails, follow the instructions. On the other hand, documentation is often wrong, laborious to read, hard to find, and it becomes overwhelming. You need a lot of patience. The new $2 trillion dollar "rescue" legislation due to the virus and economy shutdown passed here is 800 pages long. None of the senators read it but it was approved in a 95 to 0 vote. It's nice to know my country is in such good hands. They're so knowledgeable.
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How is shutting down an economy and bankrupting a nation so people can't feed their families supporting a humane society? All actions have consequences. Sometimes the road to hell is paved with good intentions. No one is evil, here. The consequences of our choices will have negative ramifications whatever we do. There are no simple answers, There will be casualties regardless of our choices.
Programs put in place to take care of people out of work so we can flatten the curve would be how a humane society would do it.
Allowing people to go back to work, even if they want to before we can do large scale testing so we actually know who could be infecting other people is just sending people to their doom. That is the opposite of humane.
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Programs put in place to take care of people out of work so we can flatten the curve would be how a humane society would do it.
Allowing people to go back to work, even if they want to before we can do large scale testing so we actually know who could be infecting other people is just sending people to their doom. That is the opposite of humane.
There are many areas that appear to be unaffected, or mildly so. They're talking about doing a phase "get back to work" plan. They also could limit the type of work. For example, crowded venues would stay closed but office work limited by numbers may be OK. Let's wait to see the plan they come up with. It doesn't have to be all or nothing.
In any case, like the regular flu, I believe this thing is going to die out regardless in the Spring.
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There are many areas that appear to be unaffected, or mildly so. They're talking about doing a phase "get back to work" plan. They also could limit the type of work. For example, crowded venues would stay closed but office work limited by numbers may be OK. Let's wait to see the plan they come up with. It doesn't have to be all or nothing.
In any case, like the regular flu, I believe this thing is going to die out regardless in the Spring.
Spring 2021?
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Spring 2021?
Oh God, I hope not. We'll all be dead. :'(
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In any case, like the regular flu, I believe this thing is going to die out regardless in the Spring.
The last day of Spring isn't until June 19th, which is almost three months away, so you are not exactly Nostradamus. A lot can happen in three months.
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The last day of Spring isn't until June 19th, which is almost three months away, so you are not exactly Nostradamus. A lot can happen in three months.
I meant it will die out in a month or so without a major conflagration. NY will get under control within that period as well. Other places in Europe and elsewhere. It's good to hope.
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The last day of Spring isn't until June 19th, which is almost three months away, so you are not exactly Nostradamus. A lot can happen in three months.
If the infection rate stays as it is now, the infections and deaths will rise rapidly.
Even if the doubling rate slows down to 10 days, there will be 10 such time frames before mid June, which will translate to unimagineable numbers.
Doubling periods for Covid-19 deaths, growing globally from the current count of 22,000 to almost 3 millions till May 20:
Period 1 - 44K, 2 - 88K, 3- - 176K, 4 - 352K, 5-704, 6-1.4M, 7 - 2.8M (using conservative estimate of doubling every 10 days)
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I meant it will die out in a month or so without a major conflagration. NY will get under control within that period as well. Other places in Europe and elsewhere. It's good to hope.
I know the President suggested that but there doesn't seem to be much scientific basis for the claim. I hope it's right but I'm not going to count on it until there is some backing evidence that the statement wasn't just wishful thinking.
I know this will probably generate some "lamestream media" comments but this piece (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html) illustrates the projected results of different timings pretty clearly. Before you completely discount it based on the source, consider that the actual data and model comes from epidemiologists.
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I know the President suggested that but there doesn't seem to be much scientific basis for the claim. I hope it's right but I'm not going to count on it until there is some backing evidence that the statement wasn't just wishful thinking.
I know this will probably generate some "lamestream media" comments but this piece (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html) illustrates the projected results of different timings pretty clearly. Before you completely discount it based on the source, consider that the actual data and model comes from epidemiologists.
I tend to agree that we need to be careful about how we get back to normal. I'm one senior citizen who is not willing to sacrfice myself on the alter of a dollar. And I'm a dedicate capitalist. I understand the frustration of those younger and more willing to chance it. That said it can be deadly to them as well. It will be interesting to see how the models and predictions play out in real time and hopefully I'll be here to witness it.
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I know the President suggested that but there doesn't seem to be much scientific basis for the claim. I hope it's right but I'm not going to count on it until there is some backing evidence that the statement wasn't just wishful thinking.
I know this will probably generate some "lamestream media" comments but this piece (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html) illustrates the projected results of different timings pretty clearly. Before you completely discount it based on the source, consider that the actual data and model comes from epidemiologists.
The biggest issue I see with the simplified model is that the ICU capacity is not included which, if it were, would dramatically increase the number of deceased people. The moment that ICU capacity has been reached (and don't forget there is a regular demand on ICU capacity, e.g. accidents, operations, heart-failure, etc.) the Death rate will skyrocket. Also, the capacity would be under pressure from ICU workers falling ill.
Also, no, not everybody who gets contaminated will die, but probably between 1% and 3% will, and it's not only older folks, although they do run a higher risk due to reduced resistance and the likelihood of having additional deceases which makes them more vulnerable. Increasing the testing capacity will allow to reduce the Deat Rate somewhat, but we're talking about millions of deaths.
So, the scenario that sane people are following is to apply Social Distancing to avoid overburdening the ICUs and staff which, assuming people adhere to the guidelines, can then be slowly relaxed to manage the pressure on ICU capacity. This will gradually build some group immunity (early testing suggests that immunization is happening), and it will bridge the time to develop a vaccine (in a year's time) in large enough quantities that would allow relaxing Social Distancing more rapidly.
There is one simple recipe to disaster, and that is to try and speed up the economic recovery (for electorial or whatever other selfish/misguided reasons) by lifting the social distancing to fast. Brazil will be a sadly interesting case to follow.
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Coronavirus: Is it too much to ask for an actual plan?
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/coronavirus-is-it-too-much-to-ask-for-an-actual-plan/
P.S. To Jeremy, the article link I posted above outlines a path to improving the response of managing the Covid-19 crisis.
If that's not what you expect, then I'll delete the post.
That's fine, Bart.
Jeremy
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apparently, he can't swim either.
In which parallel universe does that constitute a useful contribution to this thread?
In any case, like the regular flu, I believe this thing is going to die out regardless in the Spring.
I'm sure we can all take great comfort from your beliefs. Do you have any rational basis for them?
Jeremy
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I don't know what it is like with other countries, but the shut down cost 3,000,000 people to loose their jobs in the last week alone here in the USA. Or should I say, the jobless claims jumped up 3,000,000 above the average.
That is one serious ramification to the economy that will have long term consequences, and we can not afford for this to get much worse either.
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I'm sure we can all take great comfort from your beliefs. Do you have any rational basis for them?
Jeremy
As I posted in another thread, the charts for one. They appear to be flattening out, turning a corner. Plus some experts have said deaths seem to be declining in areas that were hit earlier. So based on the curves and time frames in the charts, NYC should level off in a couple of weeks then start going down. So based on those things, my estimate is the whole thing will fade out in 4 or 5 weeks or so.
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As I posted in another thread, the charts for one. They appear to be flattening out, turning a corner. Plus some experts have said deaths seem to be declining in areas that were hit earlier. So based on the curves and time frames in the charts, NYC should level off in a couple of weeks then start going down. So based on those things, my estimate is the whole thing will fade out in 4 or 5 weeks or so.
Months, rather than weeks, if we're lucky.
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Months, rather than weeks, if we're lucky.
We should have a contest and everyone picks a date and the person closest wins. I say May 5th.
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We each kick in $10 or EU11 and the moderator holds the money. :)
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We should have a contest and everyone picks a date and the person closest wins. I say May 5th.
I say earlier than that.
The Imperial College study, the UK study that caused the UK to loose their shit and go on full lock down, is revising the number of predicted deaths down from 100,000s to under 20,000. That is an order of magnitude lower then what they were predicting just last week.
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Is there anyone out there actually working? What kind of an environment? How do you stay safe?
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Is there anyone out there actually working? What kind of an environment? How do you stay safe?
I'm still making image files for a customer who is shut down. Their Marketing department is still working from home but there is little they can do with the images at this point. I have about a day and a half left and then I can get to the garage where I have a pile-o-parts waiting to be installed on my hobby car.
I work from home when I'm not shooting so this is same-o same-o for me, other than the hankering for a nice thick ribeye from my favorite steakhouse and some Mex from my favorite place...and no, no takeout for me thanks. The grill and the smoker will be seeing a orkout next week though.
My wife and I have been 24-7 for since 2000 so this is not a big chage in that department.
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Is there anyone out there actually working? What kind of an environment? How do you stay safe?
I'm a software engineer and already work from home. Currently all of our clients are closed so from a business perspective we are also hoping things will pick up asap.
We recently went to 80% hours and pay to keep costs down without reducing staff. So I'm lucky to be able to limp along without assistance for a while but it still hurts.
We are considering ways to adapt our existing technology to the new demands this crisis has presented our clients with.
I also do real estate photography and I expect that may have dried up for a while. Real estate has been hot here for a number of years so it might be time for a lull anyway.
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I also do real estate photography and I expect that may have dried up for a while. Real estate has been hot here for a number of years so it might be time for a lull anyway.
Doing any drone work with your real estate photography? I just got my part 107 licence and was thinking about trying to do a bit of real estate work to earn a few extra bucks in my off season. Plus retirement is not that far away on the horizion and drone work might be a great way to fill my time and checkbook.
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Doing any drone work with your real estate photography? I just got my part 107 licence and was thinking about trying to do a bit of real estate work to earn a few extra bucks in my off season. Plus retirement is not that far away on the horizion and drone work might be a great way to fill my time and checkbook.
Not yet but I have been toying with the idea as well. My clients are mixed between wanting drone shots and thinking they are a passing fad. It would be fun for landscapes too. I'll probably get one (and the cert) in the next year.
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Both retired here so daily life hasn't changed that much in some ways. I miss having cappuccino and croissants though.
I photograph lots of local bicycle races and April to June are busy months, all cancelled now or about to be. I'm going to miss that. I sell a few pics to that group, enough to pay for coffee and gas, all for fun really.
I like deserted street pics so things are good that way for the moment although it has been cool recently. I see a lot of small contractors still out and about, roofers, floor installers, etc. The malls and most retail are shut down of course. I like the Senior Shopping hour at my local grocery store, but honestly I doubt anyone under 60 bought groceries before 9:00 am before. There is still no toilet paper available, very bizarre, but they had flour and baking soda again so I can bake all the muffins and focaccia I want.
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On the east of the pond in the UK, the situation today has changed in 2 respects.
1) The Government announced this evening that for self-employed people who have lost earnings, it will pay 80% of profits up to a maximum of £2,500 per month for those whose average profits over the last 3 years are less than £50,000 per year. This brings the self-employed into line with employed people. The idea with employed people is to get employers to keep staff on so that the economy can recover more quickly when the restrictions can be relaxed, and to offset against benefit payments. It will be financed by borrowing within the current fiscal rules.
2) The very strong advice is to stay at home, being repeatedly said on the usual channels of communication. Only leave the house to get essential supplies such as food and medicine and for one walk, cycle ride or a run each day. Shops, other than food and pharmacies, are shut as are all entertainment venues. People should only drive if absolutely necessary. Obviously essential workers are exempt. On-line sales are going through the roof. Legislation has now been passed for the police to impose fines for drivers who ignore the driving restriction and today they are starting to spot check cars.
One other point, everyone is being encouraged to open a window and clap at 8pm tonight to say thank you to all in the National Health Service who are working so hard to deal with this situation.
Best wishes,
Jonathan
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On the east of the pond in the UK, the situation today has changed in 2 respects.
1) The Government announced this evening that for self-employed people who have lost earnings, it will pay 80% of profits up to a maximum of £2,500 per month for those whose average profits over the last 3 years are less than £50,000 per year. This brings the self-employed into line with employed people. The idea with employed people is to get employers to keep staff on so that the economy can recover more quickly when the restrictions can be relaxed, and to offset against benefit payments. It will be financed by borrowing within the current fiscal rules.
2) The very strong advice is to stay at home, being repeatedly said on the usual channels of communication. Only leave the house to get essential supplies such as food and medicine and for one walk, cycle ride or a run each day. Shops, other than food and pharmacies, are shut as are all entertainment venues. People should only drive if absolutely necessary. Obviously essential workers are exempt. On-line sales are going through the roof. Legislation has now been passed for the police to impose fines for drivers who ignore the driving restriction and today they are starting to spot check cars.
One other point, everyone is being encouraged to open a window and clap at 8pm tonight to say thank you to all in the National Health Service who are working so hard to deal with this situation.
Best wishes,
Jonathan
The problem I see is why keep staff if the customers aren't there. It's a way of paying employees. But if they're not doing work, or at least many aren't, what's the point? Just give unemployment insurance type payments. Plus, would you as an owner have to reimburse the government? They're doing something like that here in the US.
Of course, when the economy continues to tank, they will have to print more money. Neither party is concerned with inflation it seems. The Senate vote was 95-0 for the rescue package. Republicans, who were at one time the fiscally conservative party, have become socialists and spenders like the Democrats. Both fear the public who wants stuff for "free". Both sides have their eyes on the November election and don't want to do anything to piss off the voters. So they'll keep printing and helicoptering and dropping in money to everyone making the dollar worthless. I forget the name of the poet who said, "By the time this is all over, there won't be enough cheese left for a mouse to get a tooth in."
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that's been true since the Reagan years, i think.
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I don't know what it is like with other countries, but the shut down cost 3,000,000 people to loose their jobs in the last week alone here in the USA. Or should I say, the jobless claims jumped up 3,000,000 above the average.
That is one serious ramification to the economy that will have long term consequences, and we can not afford for this to get much worse either.
Maybe you should stop whining and propose some solutions.
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Maybe you should stop whining and propose some solutions.
A math professor of mine once said we can all determine an invalid proof of therioms we can’t solve ourselves. It’s not my job to come up with solutions, and if I did would people actually listen? But that does not mean I can’t point out an obvious bad one.
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Is there anyone out there actually working? What kind of an environment? How do you stay safe?
Working-ish. Both my wife and I own businesses that support/manage/create public events and conferences, so obviously we're not doing our primary jobs right now, but we're using the time to catch up on logistics fixes, marketing and website updates, updated business strategies and ideas etc. I also do marketing and PR consulting for a few clients, and they're getting their money's worth (and then some) right now :)
It sucks losing 90% of two really solid incomes with little warning, but on the other hand, we're going to come out of it with two improved companies, so that's good.
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Maybe you should stop whining and propose some solutions.
I'm sure The World Health Organization is awaiting AK's exit strategy with bated breath.
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Not yet but I have been toying with the idea as well. My clients are mixed between wanting drone shots and thinking they are a passing fad. It would be fun for landscapes too. I'll probably get one (and the cert) in the next year.
The test is not too bad, I studied for about 2 weeks and got a 92%. And I've not studied or tested for many decades.
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Not going to lie, I’m forseeing a more positive reaction by the media then when Trump said practically the same thing two days ago.
Cuomo: Not sure if closing all businesses, keeping everyone home was 'the best public health strategy' (https://www.foxnews.com/us/cuomo-closing-all-businesses-keeping-everyone-home-not-best-public-health-strategy)
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The test is not too bad, I studied for about 2 weeks and got a 92%. And I've not studied or tested for many decades.
Did you take a prep class or anything, or just get the materials and then take the test?
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Did you take a prep class or anything, or just get the materials and then take the test?
I bought an online course, Drone Pilot Ground School. It was a really good course and it is a lifetime purchase which will be important sine you need to renew every two years. It was well presented and covered the potential test questions quite well. Controlled airspace and sectional charts were a bit of a stumbling block for me but the ability to retake the sessions again as needed worked well. I think you might be able to do it yourself but the course was very effective.
Quite frankly you can “get away” with more flight situations if you fly recreationally. But if if you want to sell your services a 107 is a must.
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Working-ish. Both my wife and I own businesses that support/manage/create public events and conferences, so obviously we're not doing our primary jobs right now, but we're using the time to catch up on logistics fixes, marketing and website updates, updated business strategies and ideas etc. I also do marketing and PR consulting for a few clients, and they're getting their money's worth (and then some) right now :)
It sucks losing 90% of two really solid incomes with little warning, but on the other hand, we're going to come out of it with two improved companies, so that's good.
That sounds great. It's times like this where you got to sharpen your skills and make your company stronger and better than the competition. The recession is going to hit and there's going to be a lot weeding out of weaker outfits as business decreases overall. It's going to be harder to make a buck. Everything you do to distinguish your company will pay dividends. Good luck to you both.
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I'm still making image files for a customer who is shut down. Their Marketing department is still working from home but there is little they can do with the images at this point. I have about a day and a half left and then I can get to the garage where I have a pile-o-parts waiting to be installed on my hobby car.
I work from home when I'm not shooting so this is same-o same-o for me, other than the hankering for a nice thick ribeye from my favorite steakhouse and some Mex from my favorite place...and no, no takeout for me thanks. The grill and the smoker will be seeing a orkout next week though.
My wife and I have been 24-7 for since 2000 so this is not a big chage in that department.
The whole photo industry has changed since digital. So you must be use to the constant changing environment already. It's going to get more challenging real quick. Good luck. Frankly, I'm glad we retired although I'm concerned that inflation is going to get really bad. So my wife and I are going to see shrinking retirement value. Well, I shouldn't complain, Most everyone's going to have to tighten their belts. we just have to stay healthy and (correction-uninfected).
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I'm a software engineer and already work from home. Currently all of our clients are closed so from a business perspective we are also hoping things will pick up asap.
We recently went to 80% hours and pay to keep costs down without reducing staff. So I'm lucky to be able to limp along without assistance for a while but it still hurts.
We are considering ways to adapt our existing technology to the new demands this crisis has presented our clients with.
I also do real estate photography and I expect that may have dried up for a while. Real estate has been hot here for a number of years so it might be time for a lull anyway.
I'd keep in touch with your managers. See how they're doing. Wish them well. Keep your name in their mind. I'm worked for an outfit once with 930 employees. when funding ran out, they laid off every other person. Got us down to around 450. It was brutal. I survived but it was like war. I think my boss liked me and remembered me when they prepared the execution list. Good luck.
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Robert: I wish had had a part time job. Maybe consulting two days a week. Sometimes I'm bored in retirement. After all, how many pictures can you take? Stay healthy my friend.
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Johnathan: it's sounds similar to the situation in the US. OF course, Trump is itching to reopen America whose business has always been business. Best of luck.
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I'm sure The World Health Organization is awaiting AK's exit strategy with bated breath.
Help the rest of the world? I'm still trying to work out how me and my wife can stay safe at home. ???
This afternoon I got out of the house to shoot my new 4x5 in the park. While the park was fairly crowded, I was able to find a place all to myself. Where I was shooting I noticed some deer crap which means Lyme infected ticks can't be far away, especially here in New Jersey. So now I've got another disease to worry about.
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Help the rest of the world? I'm still trying to work out how me and my wife can stay safe at home. ???
Hide the rolling pin.
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New York State Democratic Gov Andrew Cuomo complains, like Republican President Trump, that maybe they made a mistake shutting everything down. NYS won't have the budget money from taxes to pay what and who they have to pay. (That includes me and my wife as we get pensions from them). So the very people they're trying to help, the old, will now face retirement ruin. NYS isn't the only state that will have this problem if the country doesn't get back to work. Additionally, with all the spending, hyperinflation might kick in making pensions, annuities, Social Security, and saving worthless, making the elderly destitute to boot.
This is what he says: "“We’re going to adjust the budget through the years to reflect the actual revenue,” he said. “We’ll say on day one, ‘OK, we intended to give you $100. We don’t have $100, so we’re going to give you $95. But I can only give you $95 if I get $95. And I’ll let you know quarterly.’
“And that’s, frankly, the only way you can do this budget when you have so many unknowns.”
No wonder he wants to be president. As president, he can print money. As governor of a state, he can't.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/cuomo-seizing-control-of-ny-state-budget-amid-coronavirus-economic-crunch/
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This economic crisis and the new rescue bill has changed people's political philosophies overnight. I was astounded to read the letters to the editor in a NY Times article on the web about the new Congressional "rescue" bill. Usually, the letters are anti-Trump, pro illegal immigrant, etc. Now, nearly every letter is anti immigrant. The fear of people not having money to keep their kids in college, pay their mortgages, their car lease, their electric bill, etc, has turn politics on its head. If Trump came out tomorrow and said that all illegals have to go home to their countries tomorrow, he would get 65% support for that in the country. It's astounding.
It's going to be doubly bad as all the printing is going to create inflation as so many will be getting money but not producing any goods. All that money chasing less products will increase costs of everything. Unfortunately Americans don't want to tighten their belts so the government will print more and more to give them making the dollar worthless. Imports from Europe and Asia will collapse adding to overseas inflation and job loss as well. Hold your hat Dorothy. We're in for a storm.
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I say earlier than that.
The Imperial College study, the UK study that caused the UK to loose their shit and go on full lock down, is revising the number of predicted deaths down from 100,000s to under 20,000. That is an order of magnitude lower then what they were predicting just last week.
You do realise that the reason they are revising their predictions on the death rate is precisely BECAUSE we instigated a lock down. The lower fatality rate will only happen IF social distancing is continued for many weeks to com.
Jim
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It's going to be doubly bad as all the printing is going to create inflation as so many will be getting money but not producing any goods. All that money chasing less products will increase costs of everything. Unfortunately Americans don't want to tighten their belts so the government will print more and more to give them making the dollar worthless. Imports from Europe and Asia will collapse adding to overseas inflation and job loss as well. Hold your hat Dorothy. We're in for a storm.
Alan - I'm no economist, but I find it hard to believe that the US will not weather this storm. This is the mighty USA, the richest nation on earth, the nation that built an enormous military machine to defeat the Nazis and Japanese in the 1940's, the nation that ran a hugely expensive Apollo programme to put men on the moon, that invested 10 years, untold billions of dollars and tens of thousands of lives into a (failed) military adventure in Vietnam. Then after the 9/11 attack which killed thousands of citizens, spent billions more dollars and thousands of lives battling terrorist supporters in the Middle East.
Money always somehow seems to be found to fight wars or prepare for the next one. Pandemics are just as dangerous as war - why do you not spend money building things that will better lives instead of taking them. The US is not alone in this of course.
In spite of your current president and all the negative, greedy, selfish people we hear about - most US citizens must be better than that. This episode will pass, the vast majority will survive, and in spite of a temporary hit to the economy - life will carry on.
I wish you well.
Jim
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Is there anyone out there actually working? What kind of an environment? How do you stay safe?
Both me and my wife are working from home. I work for a small Portuguese oil company that has interests in Oman, UAE, Kazakhstan, Brasil, and Angola. It was a company founded by mr. Gulbenkian in the 1930´s, he was known as mr. 5%. I can work from home with VPN and internet access.
My wife works for the Hydrographic Institute, she can also manage with VPN and internet.
I think this crisis will change ways of working in a lot of companies, driving and spending hours a day on traffic or commuting does not make any sense anymore.
My kids are 26 and 20, their universities are lecturing via web platforms. The only downside are the laboratory classes that require a physical presence. Right now, one of the big issues is how to close the school year at all levels, with exams, etc.
We stay safe basically statying at home. It is important to establish routines, exercise, allocate time for hobbies, etc. It is interesting, human nature - we all complained before that we had not enough time at home! We also do short walks around the block, early in the morning, when there is no one else around. I live 5 min from a beach, but that was closed recently.
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Doing any drone work with your real estate photography? I just got my part 107 licence and was thinking about trying to do a bit of real estate work to earn a few extra bucks in my off season. Plus retirement is not that far away on the horizion and drone work might be a great way to fill my time and checkbook.
Can you get your 107 license completely online, or do you have to go somewhere to get tested?
(Sorry for stepping off topic for a moment.)
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Alan - I'm no economist, but I find it hard to believe that the US will not weather this storm. This is the mighty USA, the richest nation on earth, the nation that built an enormous military machine to defeat the Nazis and Japanese in the 1940's, the nation that ran a hugely expensive Apollo programme to put men on the moon, that invested 10 years, untold billions of dollars and tens of thousands of lives into a (failed) military adventure in Vietnam. Then after the 9/11 attack which killed thousands of citizens, spent billions more dollars and thousands of lives battling terrorist supporters in the Middle East.
Money always somehow seems to be found to fight wars or prepare for the next one. Pandemics are just as dangerous as war - why do you not spend money building things that will better lives instead of taking them. The US is not alone in this of course.
In spite of your current president and all the negative, greedy, selfish people we hear about - most US citizens must be better than that. This episode will pass, the vast majority will survive, and in spite of a temporary hit to the economy - life will carry on.
I wish you well.
Jim
Sadly it seems that the USA now has more cases of the virus than anywhere else in the world.
Stay safe folks.
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Both me and my wife are working from home. I work for a small Portuguese oil company that has interests in Oman, UAE, Kazakhstan, Brasil, and Angola. It was a company founded by mr. Gulbenkian in the 1930´s, he was known as mr. 5%. I can work from home with VPN and internet access.
My wife works for the Hydrographic Institute, she can also manage with VPN and internet.
I think this crisis will change ways of working in a lot of companies, driving and spending hours a day on traffic or commuting does not make any sense anymore.
My kids are 26 and 20, their universities are lecturing via web platforms. The only downside are the laboratory classes that require a physical presence. Right now, one of the big issues is how to close the school year at all levels, with exams, etc.
We stay safe basically statying at home. It is important to establish routines, exercise, allocate time for hobbies, etc. It is interesting, human nature - we all complained before that we had not enough time at home! We also do short walks around the block, early in the morning, when there is no one else around. I live 5 min from a beach, but that was closed recently.
I believe that you're right, that there will be large changes in the way that people work. Overall, it may well turn out to be for the better. I would imagine that it instantly removes a lot of office politics and opportunities for workplace sexual harassment, though I don't quite see how interviews for jobs could be handled with safety and confidence online: as this forum shows, all people need is Wiki or Google and they can pose as surface experts on pretty much anything, photography included.
As with the buggy whips... don't invest too deeply in office space.
Rob
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BoJo got it :(
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1243496858095411200
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You do realise that the reason they are revising their predictions on the death rate is precisely BECAUSE we instigated a lock down. The lower fatality rate will only happen IF social distancing is continued for many weeks to com.
Jim
No, not really.
His study was based on the idea of government doing absolutely nothing, including what was going on when he was making his study. So, he not only ignored what we have done in the past week, but what we were also doing the weeks prior, such as limiting travel between countries and other measures.
So, his study was not accurate to what was taking place at the time, yet the media ate it up and gave us the worse case.
On top of that, he did not take into consideration that up to 10 times more people have already caught this then what we know, just because there was no testing of this at the time. Now we are starting to see randomized testing for anti-bodies to confirm exactly how much of the population has already had it. I am starting to question if the flu, followed by mild pneumonia, I had in January was really the flu and not this.
This goes back to my previous point, that we are obviously going over board here.
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I believe that you're right, that there will be large changes in the way that people work. Overall, it may well turn out to be for the better. I would imagine that it instantly removes a lot of office politics and opportunities for workplace sexual harassment, though I don't quite see how interviews for jobs could be handled with safety and confidence online: as this forum shows, all people need is Wiki or Google and they can pose as surface experts on pretty much anything, photography included.
As with the buggy whips... don't invest too deeply in office space.
Rob
Rob,
What you say is probably true. However that's sad state for the future of humanity. Human beings are social beasties. I for one don't want to continue to live in that Dystopia.
I like the social aspect of work...Not my painting. That's as solo as it gets. I'm talking about teaching. The online school that we are now are in, is no substitute for looking and guiding a student by hand. Just to be able to see what is really going on in a student's work. Color, texture and all sophisticated nuance is lost. What we now see is the DREADED smooth screen.
Be well,
Peter
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No, not really.
His study was based on the idea of government doing absolutely nothing, including what was going on when he was making his study. So, he not only ignored what we have done in the past week, but what we were also doing the weeks prior, such as limiting travel between countries and other measures.
So, his study was not accurate to what was taking place at the time, yet the media ate it up and gave us the worse case.
On top of that, he did not take into consideration that up to 10 times more people have already caught this then what we know, just because there was no testing of this at the time. Now we are starting to see randomized testing for anti-bodies to confirm exactly how much of the population has already had it. I am starting to question if the flu, followed by mild pneumonia, I had in January was really the flu and not this.
This goes back to my previous point, that we are obviously going over board here.
Well - as I said a few days ago - let's wait and see.
Jim
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Well - as I said a few days ago - let's wait and see.
Correct. It's too soon to declare anything with certainty at this stage, including going back to business as usual by Easter (which BTW almost certainly is a bad plan). We learn more as we go, and it's better to travel the safer route because there's no turning back after taking the wrong turn.
As I said earlier, in my country this is a decisive week. Will we be able and avoid ICU capacity and personnel overload? If we do, then we can start planning on when and how to slowely relax the Social Distancing regime. Changes will take some 10-14 days to have an effect on ICU needs. So what we're currently witnessing, a slow down of the speed of newly recorded infections due to actions from 2 weeks ago, can be turned into a manageable growth rate. A decline will not occur for months, because for that something like 60% of the population needs to have developed antibodies (either from recovery, or in a year's time from a vaccine).
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This is the USA I imagined: Lt. Gen. Todd Semonite.
https://youtu.be/xCsidYDqWo0
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Can you get your 107 license completely online, or do you have to go somewhere to get tested?
(Sorry for stepping off topic for a moment.)
You need to take the test at an FAA designated testing center. I went to a local university where they had a testing center. No watches keys etc allowed. They made me turn my pockets inside out and checked my socks. They give you an FAA booklet with charts etc you will need to answer questions, a calculator and a piece of paper and a pencil. The test was computer based, and each testing station was video monitored 60 questions, randomized so no test is the same. They give you two hours. After the test they take all the materials back and you can’t even know exactly what questions you missed. You need to get a 70 to pass
It took me about 25 mins to take the test which was pretty much the average of all the practice tests I took. My score was basically what the averages of my practice test. I went back and started the test over again and I changed a few answers. I’ll bet dollars to donuts I had them right the first time 😁. The test is multiple choice, and the FAA has some tricky answers. In some cases there are two right answers but one is “more right” and wording on some is intentionally confusing. The prep course warned about this and in at least one example used but the prep course was on the test.
All told I spent 250 on the course and the test was 160. You can find cheaper prep courses. All of them look pretty similar. I can’t really tell you why I chose this one but I read tons of reviews etc and then threw a dart. Don’t worry about being off topic, we have beaten the covid 19 thing to death, and I’m even trying to stay away from the news for awhile.
All in all I enjoyed the process. Being 67 and not having studied and tested for many decades made me leery but it was fun, I enjoyed learning about the aviation system and it felt good to pass.
Drone Pilot Ground School
https://www.dronepilotgroundschool.com/enroll/?msclkid=65f5cbdffdd51bfdfe0495a1fd070ac4&utm_source=bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=**LP%20-%20NonTM%20-%20General&utm_term=%2BDrone%20%2BGround%20%2BSchool&utm_content=Drone%20Ground%20School
Some challenging test questions
https://www.dronepilotgroundschool.com/missed-part-107-test-prep-questions/
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Alan - I'm no economist, but I find it hard to believe that the US will not weather this storm. This is the mighty USA, the richest nation on earth, the nation that built an enormous military machine to defeat the Nazis and Japanese in the 1940's, the nation that ran a hugely expensive Apollo programme to put men on the moon, that invested 10 years, untold billions of dollars and tens of thousands of lives into a (failed) military adventure in Vietnam. Then after the 9/11 attack which killed thousands of citizens, spent billions more dollars and thousands of lives battling terrorist supporters in the Middle East.
Money always somehow seems to be found to fight wars or prepare for the next one. Pandemics are just as dangerous as war - why do you not spend money building things that will better lives instead of taking them. The US is not alone in this of course.
In spite of your current president and all the negative, greedy, selfish people we hear about - most US citizens must be better than that. This episode will pass, the vast majority will survive, and in spite of a temporary hit to the economy - life will carry on.
I wish you well.
Jim
America use to be the richest creditor nation in the world. We produced something like 25% of the world's goods and services. Now we are the largest debtor nation in the world. There have been other great nations that have spent themselves into oblivion.
Hopefully, you're right and we're going to weather this storm. But the carnage is going to be great I'm afraid. We're already almost at the percentage debt we were at during WWII. With the amount they want to spend now we're going to exceed that by a lot especially since the economy will shrink during the upcoming recession. Also, remember when America sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. We're all tied together especially more so today then ever before. So you're country is going to suffer regardless of measures you take independently. How long do you think your country can handle an economic shutdown? How would you pay your bills, feed your family, heat your home, pay for doctors (through taxes)?
My government isn't finding money. They can't raise taxes. They're printing it. Currency isn't wealth. It's paper. And it's no longer backed by gold or silver. If money was wealth, why not print $10 trillion instead of $2T or $6T and make everyone rich? All that does is inflate the currency making it less valuable, less able to buy things as the cost of everything goes up. There's no such thing as a free lunch.
Now, I'm not saying that the government shouldn't help. But they're going overboard. They should help individuals out and that's pretty much it. But this is going to be a bailout of corporations mainly just like in 2008. $4 trillion (separate from the $2 trillion) is being given to the US Treasury to pass through the Fed to banks for money to large corporations. While individuals will be looking at a couple of thousand for themselves, the bulk will be going to the wealthy. Again. This will all be paid for by the middle class and retired, the people less able to afford it. Both parties now believe in socialism. Republicans have forgotten their roots of fiscal responsibility. Having stupidly gone off the gold standard years ago, both parties now believe in printing money to make up any shortfalls, just like the Weimar Republic after WWI which led to the rise of the Nazis. We're playing with fire. What happens next will make the virus a side show. No one's going to remember the few thousand that died when they can't pay their rent and they're out on the street wondering where there next meal is coming from. We're all going to have to find the spirit and hope and faith that we're all going to be OK. I certainly hope so.
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Correct. It's too soon to declare anything with certainty at this stage, including going back to business as usual by Easter (which BTW almost certainly is a bad plan). We learn more as we go, and it's better to travel the safer route because there's no turning back after taking the wrong turn.
As I said earlier, in my country this is a decisive week. Will we be able and avoid ICU capacity and personnel overload? If we do, then we can start planning on when and how to slowely relax the Social Distancing regime. Changes will take some 10-14 days to have an effect on ICU needs. So what we're currently witnessing, a slow down of the speed of newly recorded infections due to actions from 2 weeks ago, can be turned into a manageable growth rate. A decline will not occur for months, because for that something like 60% of the population needs to have developed antibodies (either from recovery, or in a year's time from a vaccine).
Trump is suggesting the same thing in our country as you are for your country. A phased plan to get back to normal times.
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Trump is suggesting the same thing in our country as you are for your country. A phased plan to get back to normal times.
But the virus does not follow Trump's plan. Infection rates may start going down tomorrow or not until May (or later). We can't know. Trump cannot be held responsible for the virus, but he can be held responsible for our refusal of test kits from WHO. Earlier testing of more people could have made a big difference. Why he refused these is a mystery to me.
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But the virus does not follow Trump's plan. Infection rates may start going down tomorrow or not until May (or later). We can't know. Trump cannot be held responsible for the virus, but he can be held responsible for our refusal of test kits from WHO. Earlier testing of more people could have made a big difference. Why he refused these is a mystery to me.
Spreading more left wing lies Peter?
No, we did not refuse test kits from WHO, because they never offered them to us. The provisions and supplies that WHO gives out are directly allocated towards third world and impoverished countries only. The idea that WHO would offer there limited provisions to the richest country in the world, who can handle the cost of this free of charge, is bonk.
Additionally, the idea that it would be a looked at as a positive if they did offer and we accepted, thus costing an impoverished country to not receive them, is also bonk. The media would have ripped Trump up and down over taking resources from a poorer country, as they should.
What actually happened was that the idea was floated that we could order and pay for testing kits from WHO, whom would have had to then manufacture them before shipping them to us. They would not have given us their current stock. As such, the administration felt it would be easier and more efficient to produce them ourselves, which is certainly the case.
Just to reiterate, WHO never offered the USA any test kits.
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This is an interesting extended TED interview with Adam Kucharski, an infectious disease researcher specializing in mathematical models, https://www.ted.com/talks/the_ted_interview_adam_kucharski_on_what_should_and_shouldn_t_worry_us_about_the_coronavirus?language=en (https://www.ted.com/talks/the_ted_interview_adam_kucharski_on_what_should_and_shouldn_t_worry_us_about_the_coronavirus?language=en). It is dated March 12 so the data he mentions is not up to the minute. The podcast is about an hour long. The discussion is wide-ranging and not limited to mathematical models and is not overly technical.
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This is an interesting extended TED interview with Adam Kucharski, an infectious disease researcher specializing in mathematical models, https://www.ted.com/talks/the_ted_interview_adam_kucharski_on_what_should_and_shouldn_t_worry_us_about_the_coronavirus?language=en (https://www.ted.com/talks/the_ted_interview_adam_kucharski_on_what_should_and_shouldn_t_worry_us_about_the_coronavirus?language=en). It is dated March 12 so the data he mentions is not up to the minute. The podcast is about an hour long. The discussion is wide-ranging and not limited to mathematical models and is not overly technical.
Could you sum it up?
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Could you sum it up?
No. It's an hour long discussion of several ideas used in modelling and other things besides. There is no one sentence or even a one paragraph summary, none that I could write. If you don't want to listen to the podcast, the best I can suggest is to google the guy's name, maybe there is some online written info about his work.
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Bad news from China. Is this precautionary or are there more domestic cases they're not reporting? Is there a "second wave"?
China Moves to Re-Shutter All Cinemas Nationwide
https://variety.com/2020/biz/entertainment-industry/china-moves-to-re-shutter-all-cinemas-nationwide-1203546923/
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Bad news from China. Is this precautionary or are there more domestic cases they're not reporting? Is there a "second wave"?
China Moves to Re-Shutter All Cinemas Nationwide
https://variety.com/2020/biz/entertainment-industry/china-moves-to-re-shutter-all-cinemas-nationwide-1203546923/
The day after the kicked out all foreign journalists, they started doing this.
I am guessing that are lying about very few new cases.
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Bad news from China. Is this precautionary or are there more domestic cases they're not reporting? Is there a "second wave"?
China Moves to Re-Shutter All Cinemas Nationwide
https://variety.com/2020/biz/entertainment-industry/china-moves-to-re-shutter-all-cinemas-nationwide-1203546923/
The way the first paragraph is phrased makes it sound like the municipalities might have been premature in re-opening the cinemas and a higher authority overrode them. You probably have to keep the infection low for a while before assuming it's ok to relax, otherwise you could end up restarting the contagion. I'm just speculating.
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You need to take the test at an FAA designated testing center. I went to a local university where they had a testing center. No watches keys etc allowed. They made me turn my pockets inside out and checked my socks. They give you an FAA booklet with charts etc you will need to answer questions, a calculator and a piece of paper and a pencil. The test was computer based, and each testing station was video monitored 60 questions, randomized so no test is the same. They give you two hours. After the test they take all the materials back and you can’t even know exactly what questions you missed. You need to get a 70 to pass
It took me about 25 mins to take the test which was pretty much the average of all the practice tests I took. My score was basically what the averages of my practice test. I went back and started the test over again and I changed a few answers. I’ll bet dollars to donuts I had them right the first time 😁. The test is multiple choice, and the FAA has some tricky answers. In some cases there are two right answers but one is “more right” and wording on some is intentionally confusing. The prep course warned about this and in at least one example used but the prep course was on the test.
All told I spent 250 on the course and the test was 160. You can find cheaper prep courses. All of them look pretty similar. I can’t really tell you why I chose this one but I read tons of reviews etc and then threw a dart. Don’t worry about being off topic, we have beaten the covid 19 thing to death, and I’m even trying to stay away from the news for awhile.
All in all I enjoyed the process. Being 67 and not having studied and tested for many decades made me leery but it was fun, I enjoyed learning about the aviation system and it felt good to pass.
Drone Pilot Ground School
https://www.dronepilotgroundschool.com/enroll/?msclkid=65f5cbdffdd51bfdfe0495a1fd070ac4&utm_source=bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=**LP%20-%20NonTM%20-%20General&utm_term=%2BDrone%20%2BGround%20%2BSchool&utm_content=Drone%20Ground%20School
Some challenging test questions
https://www.dronepilotgroundschool.com/missed-part-107-test-prep-questions/
Thank you Craig. This is just the kind of info I was hoping for. Guess I'll study now and take te test once tings open up again.
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Thank you Craig. This is just the kind of info I was hoping for. Guess I'll study now and take te test once tings open up again.
That sounds like a great plan. Best of luck!
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Thank you Craig. This is just the kind of info I was hoping for. Guess I'll study now and take te test once tings open up again.
Seconded - Appreciate the time you took to answer these questions on the subject!
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https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-gretchen-whitmer-michigan-coronavirus-feud_n_5e7e962dc5b661492267b21b?fbclid=IwAR1BANsuH9_dzfRx0mIxaGlI8orZb31Er_6zIyM4zUxeWrgOA-0M7eXF3Uc
If this is confirmed Trumps needs to go, this would be one of the most asinine action that I've seen in a long time.
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https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-gretchen-whitmer-michigan-coronavirus-feud_n_5e7e962dc5b661492267b21b?fbclid=IwAR1BANsuH9_dzfRx0mIxaGlI8orZb31Er_6zIyM4zUxeWrgOA-0M7eXF3Uc
If this is confirmed Trumps needs to go, this would be one of the most asinine action that I've seen in a long time.
Dream on TDS'er...
For days now the complaints were that the feds were not having supplies shipped to them first then sent to the states and thathe states were bidding against the feds. So not the Feds are making the orders and an havis supplies shipped to them first, before sending them to the states. So now we have States, at least Michigan complaning the Feds are getting them first.
Its lose loss no matter what Trump does when it comes to those with TDS.
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Why the Strategic National Stockpile isn't meant to solve a crisis like coronavirus
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/why-strategic-national-stockpile-isn-t-meant-solve-crisis-coronavirus-n1170376
But the U.S. strategic stockpile isn't intended to be the solution to a crisis. It's designed to be used as a stopgap during emergencies. The stockpile has limited resources, government officials and public health experts say, which weren't at full capacity even before the coronavirus was on the horizon.
"The Strategic National Stockpile is not designed to be the sole solution to these problems," said Greg Burel, who directed the stockpile program for more than 12 years until his long-planned retirement in January. He said the shortages of personal protective equipment across the country — and the fact that states already need items from the stockpile — illustrate a systemwide failure in American health care.
Yep, its Trumps fault...
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Well, this is not good.
First known cat infected with coronavirus reported in Belgium (https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/first-known-cat-infected-with-coronavirus-reported-in-belgium/)
Did not think this would be spreadable to animals.
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Dream on TDS'er...
For days now the complaints were that the feds were not having supplies shipped to them first then sent to the states and thathe states were bidding against the feds. So not the Feds are making the orders and an havis supplies shipped to them first, before sending them to the states. So now we have States, at least Michigan complaning the Feds are getting them first.
Its lose loss no matter what Trump does when it comes to those with TDS.
How about you read again, you know, use the reading skills that you so generously recommend to others?
I'm holding final judgement until this is confirmed or not, but the idea was that they were told not to deal with Michigan in the detriment of other states where the governors are friendlier to him. And there was another comment he made in regards to the governors having to be nice to him in order to get help so there could be some truth to this.
So, if the above were true, I really want to see how you or anybody could justify it.
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Dream on TDS'er...
For days now the complaints were that the feds were not having supplies shipped to them first then sent to the states and thathe states were bidding against the feds. So not the Feds are making the orders and an havis supplies shipped to them first, before sending them to the states. So now we have States, at least Michigan complaning the Feds are getting them first.
Its lose loss no matter what Trump does when it comes to those with TDS.
The only rational thing to do under the circumstances is to refrain from sending life saving equipment and supplies to states whose governors complain.
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The only rational thing to do under the circumstances is to refrain from sending life saving equipment and supplies to states whose governors complain.
Are you sure thats happening or are you yet another victim of the Fake News Media, and Fake Govenors?
From a source trusted by lefties...CNN in an article about this situation:
"A Federal Emergency Management Agency spokesperson noted in an email to CNN that a shipment for medical supplies from the Strategic National Stockpile was last shipped to Michigan on March 22 and contained N95 respirator face masks, surgical masks, face shields, surgical gowns and gloves."
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Are you sure thats happening or are you yet another victim of the Fake News Media, and Fake Govenors?
As I said (twice already), I want to see confirmation; you cannot possibly justify this is if is true. What's next, no help for states that voted Democrat?
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As I said (twice already), I want to see confirmation but you cannot possibly justify this is it is true. What's next, no help for states that voted Democrat?
Why not do some actual research yourself?
In case you missed the edited post above.
From CNN:
A Federal Emergency Management Agency spokesperson noted in an email to CNN that a shipment for medical supplies from the Strategic National Stockpile was last shipped to Michigan on March 22 and contained N95 respirator face masks, surgical masks, face shields, surgical gowns and gloves.
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Why not do some actual research yourself?
In case you missed the edited post above.
From CNN:
A Federal Emergency Management Agency spokesperson noted in an email to CNN that a shipment for medical supplies from the Strategic National Stockpile was last shipped to Michigan on March 22 and contained N95 respirator face masks, surgical masks, face shields, surgical gowns and gloves.
This did not refer to the Strategic National Stockpile.
First paragraph from the article (bold is done by me):
President Donald Trump’s latest target, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, told a radio station Friday that medical supply vendors informed her they’ve been told “not to send stuff” to her state amid the battle against COVID-19
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How about you read again, you know, use the reading skills that you so generously recommend to others?
I'm holding final judgement until this is confirmed or not, but the idea was that they were told not to deal with Michigan in the detriment of other states where the governors are friendlier to him. And there was another comment he made in regards to the governors having to be nice to him in order to get help so there could be some truth to this.
So, if the above were true, I really want to see how you or anybody could justify it.
If you had listened to the Trump team press conference yesterday you would know that there has been a shift in tactics to move away from a blanket process to a more targeted one meaning they would assess needs by state and even to a county level and send help as needed based on that assessment.
Maybe actually knowing whats going on before commenting might be wise in your case.
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This did not refer to the Strategic National Stockpile.
First paragraph from the article:
Who said anything about the stockpile? I know you just got handed your hat (again) but trying to shift the conversation only makes you look silly.
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If you had listened to the Trump tean press conference yesterday you would know that there has been a shift in tactics to move away from a blanket process to a more targeted one menaing they would asses needs by state and even to a county level and send help as needed based on that assessment.
Maybe actually knowing whats going on before commenting might be wise in your case.
But I did when he said the governors have to be friendly, that's a "two way street". That's the smoke that made me post the article.
And you can't stop making personal comments, can you? I wonder what gives you this illusion of grandeur about yourself?
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Who said anything about the stockpile? I know you just got handed your hat (again) but trying to shift the conversation only makes you look silly.
Are you actually awake? Your quote:
Why not do some actual research yourself?
In case you missed the edited post above.
From CNN:
A Federal Emergency Management Agency spokesperson noted in an email to CNN that a shipment for medical supplies from the Strategic National Stockpile was last shipped to Michigan on March 22 and contained N95 respirator face masks, surgical masks, face shields, surgical gowns and gloves.
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If you had listened to the Trump team press conference yesterday you would know that there has been a shift in tactics to move away from a blanket process to a more targeted one meaning they would assess needs by state and even to a county level and send help as needed based on that assessment.
Maybe actually knowing whats going on before commenting might be wise in your case.
Do you have a link to the assessment for Michigan, why not to send supplies?
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Buy I did when he said the governors have to be friendly, that's a "two way street". That's the smoke that made me post the article.
And you can't stop making personal comments, can you? I wonder what gives you this illusion of grandeur about yourself?
So instead of actully looking to see what might be the truth you instead went on your usual Trump sucks and needs to be gone rant. Ok. got it. Standard practice for you.
Maybe you should be a little more careful or maybe do a bit of research before you post your TDS rants.
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Are you actually awake? Your quote:
Point taken.
So instead of shipping supplies directly to the states the Feds, doing what many of the states wanted, are doing justt that..getting the supplies and then shipping to the states. So whats the problem again besides TDS?
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How about you read again, you know, use the reading skills that you so generously recommend to others?
I'm holding final judgement until this is confirmed or not, but the idea was that they were told not to deal with Michigan in the detriment of other states where the governors are friendlier to him. And there was another comment he made in regards to the governors having to be nice to him in order to get help so there could be some truth to this.
So, if the above were true, I really want to see how you or anybody could justify it.
You catch more flies with honey than you do with vinegar.
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Do you have a link to the assessment for Michigan, why not to send supplies?
No I don't but the Feds DID send supplies, on the 22nd. See above.
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No I don't but the Feds DID send supplies, on the 22nd. See above.
The quote from Governor Whitmer seems to refer to an event around the 26th or 27th, not the 22nd.
President Donald Trump’s latest target, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, told a radio station Friday that medical supply vendors informed her they’ve been told “not to send stuff” to her state amid the battle against COVID-19.
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As I said (twice already), I want to see confirmation; you cannot possibly justify this is if is true. What's next, no help for states that voted Democrat?
Lets see how your vaunted logic holds up based on this post?
Trump helps California? Check
Trump helps New York? Check
Trump helps Washington State? Check
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The quote from Governor Whitmer seems to refer to an event around the 26th or 27th, not the 22nd.
Whats the point? We have no idea when or even IF what she said is true? She has offered no proof as least as far as I can see.
So when was she told she was not getting shipments from vendors? When she made the statement is pretty much meaningless without context.
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Do you have a link to the assessment for Michigan, why not to send supplies?
The Federal government wants to hold on to supplies until there is a need in a particular state. If they send them to Michigan just because they're being asked by them, then let's say Oklahoma need them. The feds won't have the stuff to send them and won't be able to get them back from Michigan to transfer to Oklahoma. EVery state wants to have extra supplies. That's natural to ask for them. But there isn't enough to go around.
NYS governor Cuomo did the same thing Trump did. When he got 4000 ventilators from Trump, he stored them in a NYS supply dump in Edison, New Jersey. When he was asked why then is he complaining about Trump, his answer was they're storing them until later when they really need them. So he's doing on a state level what the feds are doing on a national level.
Unfortunately, there's a lot of jockeying for political position going on right now because of the election. Getting slightly off subject. this is why I'm against national health care. Who would trust the government to really care about their health? You gotta be nuts. This whole clusterf$$k is a perfect example. The whole federal government and all of the state were not prepared. Very little time and energy and supplies were saved for a rainy day.
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So instead of actully looking to see what might be the truth you instead went on your usual Trump sucks and needs to be gone rant. Ok. got it. Standard practice for you.
Maybe you should be a little more careful or maybe do a bit of research before you post your TDS rants.
The truth here cannot be found on the internet. Right now is she says, he says. Until another involved party confirms or denies this you can do all the search. Again, this is not about the Feds sending supplies (which aren't anywhere close to enough, the East side of Michigan is swamped). When he says the governors have to be friendly to him it's already a red flag. Concerning enough to post this, regardless if you disagree.
You catch more flies with honey than you do with vinegar.
I saw this quoted by others. While technically it's true and ideally they should work together in harmony, not linking the governor it's irrelevant to who should get help. This is not about egos but about the people who are in need, regardless of where they are and who they support.
Lets see how your vaunted logic holds up based on this post?
Trump helps California? Check
Trump helps New York? Check
Trump helps Washington State? Check
Define help. Did he do what's expected from a US President? And this is about a specific situation. But you will drag this where you are comfortable regardless.
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The truth here cannot be found on the internet. Right now is she says, he says. Until another involved party confirms or denies this you can do all the search. Again, this is not about the Feds sending supplies (which aren't anywhere close to enough, the East side of Michigan is swamped). When he says the governors have to be friendly to him it's already a red flag. Concerning enough to post this, regardless if you disagree.
I saw this quoted by others. While technically it's true and ideally they should work together in harmony, not linking the governor it's irrelevant to who should get help. This is not about egos but about the people who are in need, regardless of where they are and who they support.
Define help. Did he do what's expected from a US President? And this is about a specific situation. But you will drag this where you are comfortable regardless.
Face it dude, you screwed the pooch on this one, and its SOP for you. You are not making things better.
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More complete information on the Michigan story...
https://www.crainsdetroit.com/coronavirus/whitmer-feds-told-vendors-not-send-medical-supplies-michigan
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The truth here cannot be found on the internet. Right now is she says, he says. Until another involved party confirms or denies this you can do all the search. Again, this is not about the Feds sending supplies (which aren't anywhere close to enough, the East side of Michigan is swamped). When he says the governors have to be friendly to him it's already a red flag. Concerning enough to post this, regardless if you disagree.
I saw this quoted by others. While technically it's true and ideally they should work together in harmony, not linking the governor it's irrelevant to who should get help. This is not about egos but about the people who are in need, regardless of where they are and who they support.
Define help. Did he do what's expected from a US President? And this is about a specific situation. But you will drag this where you are comfortable regardless.
The Governor of Michigan thinks she's the only state that has cases. There are 49 other states that count too. That's why Trump told his staff to ignore her if he did. She's a selfish pain in the ass.
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The Governor of Michigan thinks she's the only state that has cases. There are 49 other states that count too. That's why Trump told his staff to ignore her if he did. She's a selfish pain in the ass.
My thoughts as well.
I think anyone can see that the greater NYC area takes precedence right now over all other areas.
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Face it dude, you screwed the pooch on this one, and its SOP for you. You are not making things better.
Point taken.
So instead of shipping supplies directly to the states the Feds, doing what many of the states wanted, are doing justt that..getting the supplies and then shipping to the states. So whats the problem again besides TDS?
The irony here is deep.
More complete information on the Michigan story...
https://www.crainsdetroit.com/coronavirus/whitmer-feds-told-vendors-not-send-medical-supplies-michigan
You didn't read that, did you?
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My thoughts as well.
I think anyone can see that the greater NYC area takes precedence right now over all other areas.
Yes and no. Yes they need more supplies, and no, they shouldn't be getting them strictly on the number of cases that they have.
That stockpile is not going to help, people keep getting fixated on it now. The amount of supplies needed are far beyond what's in there.