COVID-19 updates

[James Clark]

And it so great to see so many start to give into Chinese Communist propaganda here, since, you know, it was China who declared this was racist in trying to deflect responsibility.

You forgot to blame the latin gangs.  They're in on it too.

Pro tip: OANN is bad for America.  Stay away.

[Raul_Rodriguez]

With the sole exception of my wife contracting and succumbing to this, my response is not going to be emotional.  As I noted before, I dont believe in allowing emotions to dictate thought when looking at a problem, nor does it help in anyway. 

No slots for close family & friends even? Damn, that's cold.

[JoeKitchen]

You forgot to blame the latin gangs.  They're in on it too.

Pro tip: OANN is bad for America.  Stay away.

Ahhh, yes, the use of the term "Batshit Reporter" in a title just instills a high level of confidence of the reporting onto the reader.   

Seriously, I am not going to put up with the hypocrisy of the left wing media suddenly trying to accuse Trump of being racist in saying Chinese virus when they did it for weeks beforehand. 

[JoeKitchen]

No slots for close family & friends even? Damn, that's cold.

I would be seriously distraught to say the least.  But insofar as loosing my mental capacity to isolate the emotional side of my brain and think logically, I can logically only think of one scenario for this to happen. 

It's how I am wired.  I have never, for as long as I can recall, ever understood how a person can allow their logic to be swayed by emotion. 

[James Clark]

Ahhh, yes, the use of the term "Batshit Reporter" in a title just instills a high level of confidence onto the reader.   

Nevertheless, an appropriate description.

Seriously, I am not going to put up with the hypocrisy of the left wing media suddenly trying to accuse Trump of being racist in saying Chinese virus when they did it for weeks beforehand.

Got it. So you're taking the "batshit reporter" perspective.  "Gosh President Trump, it's not racist when we order CHINESE FOOD is it???"

[Jeremy Roussak]

Since this only kills the elderly and those with other conditions, that is the real limit for everyone else to become numb to death to the point where they just move on.  It be different if healthy people were being killed here. 

Are you really so ignorant as to believe this? My granddaughter had this virus. She's 20 and in good health. She was taken to the hospital by ambulance because she was having dificulty breathing. Fortunately it was early in the cycle where she lives, and the hospital was not overwhelmed. Had it been a few weeks later, there's no guarantee at all that she would have survived.

While it's clearly wrong to suggest that it "only" kills the elderly and those with other conditions, anecdote is not data and one case does not refute the general proposition that this is a far, far more dangerous disease in the elderly. See this paper, from the COVID-19 response team at Imperial College, and in particular the table on page 5.

Jeremy

[Alan Klein]

How invasive policies become are time and place dependent. Italy and Spain have banned cycling, even solo rides. This seems questionable on the face of it until you factor in the paramedics and hospital staff required to treat cycling accidents. Normally there aren't THAT many of those, but when there is no margin for error, even one may be a lot. People the world over don't like to be told what to do (it's decidedly not just an American thing) even when it is for their own good. Imagine falling off your bike and breaking a collar bone and no one is available to come get you and no hospital can take you in anyway.

So I just got an email from my dentist where I have to do work that his office is closed until May 4.  Is he really opening after that?  We are all going to lose our freedoms pretty quick as government imposes all sorts of restrictions on us from where we can go to how we spend and what we do with our assets.  And as governments print to support people who need money, it's going to get worse.    Problem is money represents productivity.  Since no one is working, it represents less.  Add additional currency in circulation (inflation), and the prices of everything are going to skyrocket.  Our dollar is going to be worth nothing.  All the money that is going to be printed is going to wipe out everyone;s cash in value. 

Good time to own things, real things: gold, silver, a home, a place to grow things.  Even stock but it could take years before it comes back.  We already were a trillion in deficit spending this year before this happened.  Now, they want to spend trillions more.  No one's going to give it to us like the Chinese.  They got their own problems and need it for themselves.  So we'll print it.  Worthless paper like Argentina and Zimbabwe and Germany after WWI. The bubble now is bigger than in 2008.  The virus popped it.  Never mind a toothache.  We're looking at civil unrest.  The only hope is that the virus is overblown and it ends quickly.  If this spreads out in time, I'm afraid of what might happen.

[Jeremy Roussak]

Disappointing paper in the New England Journal of Medicine. It was a small study, but it suggests that at least two of the current crop of anti-viral agents are of little use against this particular virus.

Jeremy

[JoeKitchen]

Nevertheless, an appropriate description.

Got it. So you're taking the "batshit reporter" perspective.  "Gosh President Trump, it's not racist when we order CHINESE FOOD is it???"

I'm taking the perspective if it truly is racist, then the Media are a lot more to blame for branding it this way then Trump.  How many weeks were they using "Chinese" or "Wuhan" when describing it.  If they feel this is a problem, let me know when they apologize for using it themselves. 

Second, I see no issue with using a term in the name that notes the origin country or region, as is the case with MERS or West Nile Virus. 

Third, this is China's fault.  They covered up the news of this disease for a full month that we know of and told WHO in mid-January that there was no evidence of community transmissions, which we now know they knew this was not the case.  The government of China is responsible for this pandemic. 

[James Clark]

I'm taking the perspective if it truly is racist, then the Media are a lot more to blame for branding it this way then Trump.  How many weeks were they using "Chinese" or "Wuhan" when describing it.  If they feel this is a problem, let me know when they apologize for using it themselves. 

Second, I see no issue with using a term in the name that notes the origin country or region, as is the case with MERS or West Nile Virus.

OK then.

[Manoli]

About the Italian situation, it's possible that the virus was circulating there before it was even recognized as a serious threat in China. I read a report yesterday in which an Italian epidemiologist said they had several reports of an unusual and intractable pneumonia in the Milan region back as far as November, affecting mostly elderly people. Milan is a big fashion center, with many of the fashions coming out of there fabricated in China. I wonder if the virus was circulating there mostly unseen, or perhaps mistaken for the flu, long before the problem exploded?

This is more than credible. The Economist has just published an article referencing a paper in the New England Journal of Medicine . Studies show that Covid-19 can linger in the air for hours and on some materials for days; far longer than previously thought.

Cardboard and plastic are two materials extensively used in the packing, transportation and storage of manufactured goods - paricularly clothing.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/19/how-long-can-the-novel-coronavirus-survive-on-surfaces-and-in-the-air

[JoeKitchen]

Are you really so ignorant as to believe this? My granddaughter had this virus. She's 20 and in good health. She was taken to the hospital by ambulance because she was having dificulty breathing. Fortunately it was early in the cycle where she lives, and the hospital was not overwhelmed. Had it been a few weeks later, there's no guarantee at all that she would have survived.


While it's clearly wrong to suggest that it "only" kills the elderly and those with other conditions, anecdote is not data and one case does not refute the general proposition that this is a far, far more dangerous disease in the elderly. See this paper, from the COVID-19 response team at Imperial College, and in particular the table on page 5.

Jeremy

Okay, perhaps only is too strong of a word. 

Speaking as someone that went to school for mathematics, and studied statistics, I am use to using some 99%+ threshold as being statistical assured.  Meaning that in stats there is almost never a 100% probability, but a probability over 99% is typically considered a certainty. 

[faberryman]

So I just got an email from my dentist where I have to do work that his office is closed until May 4.  Is he really opening after that?

It depends. He may have to sell his Leica.

[Manoli]

An 'in the moment' observation: the United Kingdom, today, is ahead of where Italy was just three weeks ago. Just three weeks. Look at the Johns Hopkins stats. Kind of highlights the risks and explains the  precautionary measures being extolled in both the USA and the European continent.

[armand]

Disappointing paper in the New England Journal of Medicine. It was a small study, but it suggests that at least two of the current crop of anti-viral agents are of little use against this particular virus.

Jeremy

Unfortunately we are still in the dark and have to work with poor data, anecdotal or small poor quality trials, back in the old days. But it is what it is.
Regarding this particular combo I saw some concerns that it might drive an immune reconstitution syndrome, no idea how real the concerns are.

We have possibly remdesivir and chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine with in vitro activity, possibly favipiravir (with some  human data but for the milder cases mostly). There might a possible benefit from adding tocilizumab to remdesivir.
None, except maybe hydroxychloroquine, will be easy to come by and in the end we are just in supportive care mode. For those unfamiliar, supportive care means buying your body time to heal, if he can.

[John Camp]

I dont even know how you can come back from this politically.  Their careers are over.

You have far more faith in justice than I. My prediction is that they'll be mumbling about this in the Senate ethics committee for a few weeks, by which time people will be dropping like flies, and nobody will pay attention to the stock purchases made in the distant past.

[Alan Klein]

Joe,
first paragraph, first sentence: " Speaking to the nation last night, U.S. President Donald Trump said .."
enough of a qualification that nothing should be taken at face value.

Nothing personal, Joe - let's bury a non-existant hatchet. 
It does behove us all to be responsible and realise the importance and extent of this health emergency. BTW, the foolhardy aren't limited to the USA. SKY News reporting that inspite of all precautions and advisories by UK gov, we stiil have idiots insisting on frequenting pubs (bars) etc etc. Schools are closed, country close to lockdown but lets keep boozing ...

I'm pretty good with isolating but my wife is getting testy.  It won't last.  Unless the death rates go up significantly, people are going to go out.  What about people who need to eat? Where are they getting money from to eat and pay their rent?  How many dollars can the government print before they're totally worthless and China takes over the world?   Why are there no more viruses in China.  Is it really not that bad?  Or do they have a cure?  What's really going on?

[armand]

This is more than credible. The Economist has just published an article referencing a paper in the New England Journal of Medicine . Studies show that Covid-19 can linger in the air for hours and on some materials for days; far longer than previously thought.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/19/how-long-can-the-novel-coronavirus-survive-on-surfaces-and-in-the-air

I think that's where the high transmission comes from, it's not just direct droplet transmission.
It also gives substance to the concerns that it aerosolizes much easier than thought, which leads to the recommended N95 and negative pressure rooms for testing, despite some doubts around here. Problems is those PPEs and negative pressure rooms are hard to come by. If the first responders get infected, many more will get it too.

[John Camp]

Resignation is one thing, prosecution for insider trading may be another.  U.S. laws and federal agency regulations regarding insider trading are complex, and I'm certainly no expert on them, but in general to be in violation an investor needs to be acting on "inside information" from a specific company or companies—i.e., from a source with access to company-confidential information.  Acting on a government briefing about an external event that could have broad consequences for the economy probably would be insufficient to sustain a prosecution.

There's a specific law that forbids members of congress from trading on information they learn through confidential government sources. It's called the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act. Burr was one of the three or four senators to vote against it.

[armand]

This is more than credible. The Economist has just published an article referencing a paper in the New England Journal of Medicine . Studies show that Covid-19 can linger in the air for hours and on some materials for days; far longer than previously thought.

Cardboard and plastic for sure are two materials extensively used in the packing, transportation and storage of manufactured goods - paricularly clothing.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/19/how-long-can-the-novel-coronavirus-survive-on-surfaces-and-in-the-air

Based on this I have to decide how to handle the Amazon packages. I sprayed them a little, opened them then sprayed the inside boxes, got rid of outside boxes, wash hands, ...
Maybe I should just open them and leave them somewhere inside the house where nobody will touch them for 3 days or so.