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Author Topic: Extreme weather  (Read 41366 times)

Craig Lamson

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1560 on: February 12, 2020, 11:27:33 pm »

Yes, the intervals are getting larger due to rising temperatures. The average temperature in the Netherlands has been rising some 1.5-2.0 degrees Celsius since official systematic recording around the 1900's. It's been 23 years since the latest 11 cities event (with one close call in 2019), and it's getting less likely (although theoretically still possible) that it will happen this year.

You dodged the question.  What caused the problem from 63 to 85? 
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1561 on: February 12, 2020, 11:35:14 pm »

Too many cows.

kers

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1562 on: February 13, 2020, 10:15:23 am »

New high temperature record for Antartica 20.75ºC

Antarctic temperature rises above 20C for first time on record
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/antarctic-temperature-rises-above-20c-first-time-record
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Rob C

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1563 on: February 13, 2020, 10:48:08 am »

What caused the problem from 63 to 85?

Heat.

Part of the reason that folks still deny the changes going down is that they think it is all going to be an immediate thing you can measure over five years or something short like that. Global warming due to mankind has been going on for ages. We didn't start to pollute with the advent of the petrol engine, you know. We have been doing it with fossil fuels over centuries.

For some years when I lived in Glasgow, I can remember my mother bringing in grey washing - and we lived in a nice, leafy suburb, not in the city. As an apprentice, I can remember cycling home from work and having to get off and push the bike because I literally could not see a yard ahead. That was in the fifties. Later on, when I had a car, I recall driving back from the city following the tramlines, and hoping I remembered which turned off where. They brought in clean air acts, and that stuff became history. Fog, yes, a different but related beast, but the industrial smog was gone.

Today, engineering industry gasses (and coal fires at home) have been replaced as pollutants by vastly more cars and aircraft than ever existed before, and we produce pollution that is largely invisible to the naked eye if not to the lungs. Population growth has caused much more agriculture-based pollution than ever before.

It does not follow - never did - that every year would follow the exact pattern of the one before it; we go up and down, high and low, but the thing is, there is also an overall pattern to be considered, and that's what should get us thinking seriously. There's no denying that natural events like explodoing volcanoes and meteorite hits also caused vast climate changes in history; natural events indeed, but nowhere does it follow that man doing his best to stop his own pollution from getting worse is not going to help us survive - if only a little longer.

I think that's the whole point of what we are trying to do: stall the beginning of the end.

Craig Lamson

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1564 on: February 13, 2020, 11:16:24 am »

Heat.

Part of the reason that folks still deny the changes going down is that they think it is all going to be an immediate thing you can measure over five years or something short like that. Global warming due to mankind has been going on for ages. We didn't start to pollute with the advent of the petrol engine, you know. We have been doing it with fossil fuels over centuries.

For some years when I lived in Glasgow, I can remember my mother bringing in grey washing - and we lived in a nice, leafy suburb, not in the city. As an apprentice, I can remember cycling home from work and having to get off and push the bike because I literally could not see a yard ahead. That was in the fifties. Later on, when I had a car, I recall driving back from the city following the tramlines, and hoping I remembered which turned off where. They brought in clean air acts, and that stuff became history. Fog, yes, a different but related beast, but the industrial smog was gone.

Today, engineering industry gasses (and coal fires at home) have been replaced as pollutants by vastly more cars and aircraft than ever existed before, and we produce pollution that is largely invisible to the naked eye if not to the lungs. Population growth has caused much more agriculture-based pollution than ever before.

It does not follow - never did - that every year would follow the exact pattern of the one before it; we go up and down, high and low, but the thing is, there is also an overall pattern to be considered, and that's what should get us thinking seriously. There's no denying that natural events like explodoing volcanoes and meteorite hits also caused vast climate changes in history; natural events indeed, but nowhere does it follow that man doing his best to stop his own pollution from getting worse is not going to help us survive - if only a little longer.

I think that's the whole point of what we are trying to do: stall the beginning of the end.

I clearly don't deny that climate changes.  Heck just north of my location was once a giant glacier.  It's now what is know as Great Lakes.  How did that happen? The climate changed.  Humans had zero to do with that change.

In my opinion we have zero chance of changing it now. The earth and universe are beyond our control.  As for trying to "FIX" what we have now...given the likelyhood of unexpected conequences, we just might screw things up totally.  And I'm not talking about the environment.  Science is grasping at straws.  They have no real idea of whats going on, only educated guesses.  Nothing wrong with making guesses based on incomplete data but lets  call a spade a spade here.    No one reallly knows how this will work out as time goes forward.  Lets stop pretending we do.

Saying we must do this or that to "save the planet" is hyperbole, IMO.

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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1565 on: February 13, 2020, 03:14:38 pm »

I clearly don't deny that climate changes.  Heck just north of my location was once a giant glacier.  It's now what is know as Great Lakes.  How did that happen? The climate changed.  Humans had zero to do with that change.

In my opinion we have zero chance of changing it now. The earth and universe are beyond our control.  As for trying to "FIX" what we have now...given the likelyhood of unexpected conequences, we just might screw things up totally.  And I'm not talking about the environment.  Science is grasping at straws.  They have no real idea of whats going on, only educated guesses.  Nothing wrong with making guesses based on incomplete data but lets  call a spade a spade here.    No one reallly knows how this will work out as time goes forward.  Lets stop pretending we do.

Saying we must do this or that to "save the planet" is hyperbole, IMO.

Except that it may be the case that the direction we're headed is bad so maybe we should do what is within our power to do. Reducing resource and energy use is a good idea regardless of anything else. I don't mean passing legislation that forces us to be "good", that's a mug's game. But it would be a good idea to stop pretending that externalities aren't real costs.
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RSL

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1566 on: February 13, 2020, 03:40:09 pm »

I think that's the whole point of what we are trying to do: stall the beginning of the end.

Rob, can you think of a single case in history where humans turned away from a course of action before they reached the point of understanding that what they were doing was an existential disaster? I can't.

On the other hand, I don't agree that we're facing that kind of disaster. I have too many geologists and geophysicists in my family. Since I was there when it was happening, and had it vividly described and explained, I'm well aware of the period when we were facing extermination in a new ice age -- as surely as we're now facing incineration. In the end I think the hand of God either will save us from ourselves, or if the Lord has decided we've been around long enough, bring down the curtain on the whole performance.
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Craig Lamson

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1567 on: February 13, 2020, 03:59:28 pm »

Except that it may be the case that the direction we're headed is bad so maybe we should do what is within our power to do. Reducing resource and energy use is a good idea regardless of anything else. I don't mean passing legislation that forces us to be "good", that's a mug's game. But it would be a good idea to stop pretending that externalities aren't real costs.

I have no problem if people want to drive electric cars and use solar and wind power. Don't want to eat beef?
Fine with  me.  The market will take care of that.  So much of this we just can't understand and can't control.  But I think its also a good idea to stop pretending that this will not be a situation where passing legislation to make us be good, it not really the end game.  There is raw political power at play here, at least IMO.
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RSL

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1568 on: February 13, 2020, 04:09:30 pm »

There is raw political power at play here, at least IMO.

In mine too, Craig.
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Rob C

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1569 on: February 13, 2020, 04:21:47 pm »

1. Rob, can you think of a single case in history where humans turned away from a course of action before they reached the point of understanding that what they were doing was an existential disaster? I can't.

2. On the other hand, I don't agree that we're facing that kind of disaster. I have too many geologists and geophysicists in my family. Since I was there when it was happening, and had it vividly described and explained, I'm well aware of the period when we were facing extermination in a new ice age -- as surely as we're now facing incineration. In the end I think the hand of God either will save us from ourselves, or if the Lord has decided we've been around long enough, bring down the curtain on the whole performance.



1. Many have realised we are creating such a disaster; many refuse to look, preferring the comfort of the warm sand about their ears.

2. God bringing down the curtain seems fair enough; our doing it seems insane. As I say, what's wrong with trying to mitigate it and play and pray for time? That may be all we need to fix our self-inflicted damage: change our ways. At any rate, it's the only part we can actually influence, should we decide to try.

M. Macron was up at Mont Blanc today looking at the vanishing glacier; the ski industry is facing disaster. Perhaps that may knock some influential heads together. One thing is for sure: as with blocking millionaires at 50, it ain't gonna happen until the head honchos realise its going to hurt them to do nothing. That may prove more difficult in some states than in others. It also suddenly seems to make the idea of a federal Europe make sense if only because of the problem of conflicting local pressures that pull in different directions, each unit jockeying for advantage. A federal governing body strong enough could force it through. As the world shrinks, rather than it uniting in the common interest, the opposite seems to happen. Why is humanity so perverse?

Peter McLennan

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1570 on: February 13, 2020, 08:56:19 pm »

Why is humanity so perverse?

Because greed.
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Craig Lamson

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1571 on: February 13, 2020, 08:58:41 pm »

Because greed.

Because most of us believe in freedom...
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1572 on: February 13, 2020, 11:15:28 pm »

I have no problem if people want to drive electric cars and use solar and wind power. Don't want to eat beef?
Fine with  me.  The market will take care of that.  So much of this we just can't understand and can't control.  But I think its also a good idea to stop pretending that this will not be a situation where passing legislation to make us be good, it not really the end game.  There is raw political power at play here, at least IMO.
And money.  Carbon credits will favor many companies and individuals.  Government grants for research into climate change keeps the articles and research papers coming. Movies, documentaries, magazine articles, photographers, scuba divers, and others are getting rich from climate change.  Solar, electric car, and other related manufacturers get grants and rebates from government to keep their businesses going. The very aspect of climate change brings wealth to them as they sell their products.    Universities get grants as well for research. Politicians gain power selling the idea.  It goes on and on. 

Reminds me of the saying years ago about all the social programs that government was spending for to help people who were poor.  Some old wise and rich businessman declared, "There's lots of money to be made in poverty."

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1573 on: February 13, 2020, 11:57:22 pm »

So it seems it's been very warm in Europe and elsewhere this winter not because of global warming but due to an extra strong Polar Vortex above the Arctic locking up cold air from descending to lower latitudes.  The article makes no comment that I noticed explaining the cause for the large Polar Vortex other than a big difference it temperatures between polar regions and lower latitudes.  But why did this happen this year?  Sun spots?  Solar system perturbations?  Cow farts?

https://weather.com/news/news/2020-02-13-polar-vortex-arctic-sea-ice-cover-highest

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1574 on: February 14, 2020, 06:01:33 am »

So it seems it's been very warm in Europe and elsewhere this winter not because of global warming but due to an extra strong Polar Vortex above the Arctic locking up cold air from descending to lower latitudes.  The article makes no comment that I noticed explaining the cause for the large Polar Vortex other than a big difference it temperatures between polar regions and lower latitudes.

Which were caused by global warming ....

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But why did this happen this year?  Sun spots?  Solar system perturbations?  Cow farts?

It didn't happen this year, it's a trend.

Attached I have added a chart of the average temperature as measured at the official Dutch meteorological institute in the center of the country, both as annual averages (so the seasons will cancel out if no change is observed), and the 11-year solar sunspot average period (which cancels out that periodic fluctuation). If it were only caused by oribital variations, the change would be too slow to see, and it would have a net cooling effect as we approach a new Ice-age, in some 16000 years from now.

Despite only having access to the hourly data since 1951, the trend is clear. The main cause is the accumulating amount of greenhouse gasses that trap the heat, and is fully in line with the known rise in temperature (recognizing that the oceans already absorb a huge amount of that heat and roughly 40-50% of CO2 emissions), which in turn causes other issues. So despite approaching a new Ice-age, we're witnessing increasing temperatures that can reach tipping points we should try to avoid because they will be costly in many different ways.
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Rob C

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1575 on: February 14, 2020, 06:41:41 am »

Because most of us believe in freedom...

So do I; I do not, however, believe in mass suicide being inflicted upon the rest of us by folks who refuse to accept the evidence before their very eyes.

It gets wearying dealing with rubber-wall minds; perhaps that's why they get promoted and encouraged, conditioned by their leaders to retain the profitable status quo until those making a killing out of it are no longer around to give a shit about the next generations.

On behalf of my kids and grandchildren: thank you for your concer, folks; so touching!

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1576 on: February 14, 2020, 09:08:16 am »

Rob , glad to see you are getting younger and younger every day, like Benjamin Button ;)

Craig Lamson

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1577 on: February 14, 2020, 09:22:33 am »

So do I; I do not, however, believe in mass suicide being inflicted upon the rest of us by folks who refuse to accept the evidence before their very eyes.

It gets wearying dealing with rubber-wall minds; perhaps that's why they get promoted and encouraged, conditioned by their leaders to retain the profitable status quo until those making a killing out of it are no longer around to give a shit about the next generations.

On behalf of my kids and grandchildren: thank you for your concer, folks; so touching!

Actually it appears you don’t really want freedom, as witnessed by you wanting to set a ceiling on wealth.  Now you want to do it in regards to personal freedoms that may or may not relate to some scientists guesses about how humans are effecting the climate.

Again people are doing what they want with regards to helping the “climate” of their own free will.  The results are working.  The markets are working.  It’s called freedom.  Doing it at the point of a gun ( metaphorically) is not freedom.  You 2ant to impose your will on others.  I stand for just the opposite.  Do all you want to change, vote with your dollars, but keep your demand on how I can live my life.  (via draconian laws)


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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1578 on: February 14, 2020, 09:38:16 am »

Are you sure, Rob, you are castigating the right people?

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1579 on: February 14, 2020, 09:45:08 am »

Actually it appears you don’t really want freedom, as witnessed by you wanting to set a ceiling on wealth.

I do not follow your knee-jerk reaction to progress. There are lots of jobs and innovation in renewable energy, fewer and fewer in e.g. coal.

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Now you want to do it in regards to personal freedoms that may or may not relate to some scientists guesses about how humans are effecting the climate.

You seem to claim personal freedom for yourself, but at the same time deny the personal freedom of others. You also seem to reject science. That's a poor basis for realistic analysis, IMHO of course.

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Again people are doing what they want with regards to helping the “climate” of their own free will.  The results are working.

The results are not working. Climate is affected at a rate that nature cannot keep up with, leading to extinction. Rising (salt) water-levels around the world are causing a threat to freshwater supply for human consumption and irrigation and give rise to loss of coastal farmland and of real estate property. People are dying prematurely from the causes of air-pollution.

That's not freedom, that's avoidable manmade stupidity due to short-term 'thinking'.

And it will unavoidably cost more (not less), the longer we wait to mitigate/remedy it. Studies have shown, that the break-even point indeed is close to the maximizing of global temperature rise to about 2 degrees Celsius. Prevention is better/cheaper than cure. Even in a large country like the USA, you are not prepared for the mass migration and social consequences when you lose the ability to live and have harbors where the current coastline is.
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