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Author Topic: Extreme weather  (Read 49282 times)

RSL

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1580 on: February 14, 2020, 09:55:48 am »

Bart, before you go too far with this approach, check https://fee.org/articles/4-catastrophic-climate-predictions-that-never-came-true/
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1581 on: February 14, 2020, 10:08:17 am »

Bart, before you go too far with this approach, check https://fee.org/articles/4-catastrophic-climate-predictions-that-never-came-true/

Russ, I see mostly claims by non-scientific sources. I'd expect those to be mistaken more often than peer reviewed scientific studies. No surprise there.

Also, some 'predictions' are based on rational risk avoiding behavior by humans, and if this thread proves anything, some humans are so deep in denial that 'rational' is not an appropriate desciption. That's why many scientific models are rather optimistic, until human behavior (or the lack thereoff) forces them to readjust the models.

As mentioned, a behavior that limits global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius seems to give the best balance between upfront cost and later damage repair, yet we are heading in the direction of 3-5 degrees global warming if we do not react adequately to the challenges in front of us.
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Craig Lamson

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1582 on: February 14, 2020, 10:25:42 am »

I do not follow your knee-jerk reaction to progress. There are lots of jobs and innovation in renewable energy, fewer and fewer in e.g. coal.

I love progress, itís amazing and it mostly benefits everyone.  Renewable energy is a case in point.  If itís viable, can stand on its own and prosper it will succeed in the marketplace.  Coal for example is fading precisely because of progress.  Fracking has unleashed massive stores of natural gas, displacing coal as a power generating fuel.   Now If renewables can ever be as reliable and prolific as the current sources of electricity they will flourish.  And they wonít need to be propped up by needless laws.

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You seem to claim personal freedom for yourself, but at the same time deny the personal freedom of others. You also seem to reject science. That's a poor basis for realistic analysis, IMHO of course.

How in the world could you ever think Iím trying to deny personal freedom to others?  Talk about knee jerk.   As Iíve stated  more than once...build all the windmills you want, install all the solar you want, drive electric if you choose.  Say no to cows.   Live your life as you choose.   Just donít try and force me to join you...and that is what you espouse.

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The results are not working. Climate is affected at a rate that nature cannot keep up with, leading to extinction. Rising (salt) water-levels around the world are causing a threat to freshwater supply for human consumption and irrigation and give rise to loss of coastal farmland and of real estate property. People are dying prematurely from the causes of air-pollution.

But they are working.  The output of C02 is falling rapidly in all the advanced nations. Your claims of ďextinctionĒ are part of your problem.  You canít say thatís anything but a scientific guess.  Air pollution n advanced countries is far less than it has been for a very long time.  But hey, if the is really bugging you, why has you contingency not taken China and India to take more forcefully.  The free market is working quite well in advanced countries without your need to control how people live.

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That's not freedom, that's avoidable manmade stupidity due to short-term 'thinking'.

So instead we should surrender our freedom to you and the climate police and be FORCED to play by YOUR rules or else.  Wow, you sure have a warped view of freedom

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And it will unavoidably cost more (not less), the longer we wait to mitigate/remedy it. Studies have shown, that the break-even point indeed is close to the maximizing of global temperature rise to about 2 degrees Celsius. Prevention is better/cheaper than cure. Even in a large country like the USA, you are not prepared for the mass migration and social consequences when you lose the ability to live and have harbors where the current coastline is.

So say you.  Iíve heard it all before, Iím going to freeze to death.  So said science.  Studies had shown that to be true.  Listen, do as you wish, change how you live.  Have at it if it makes you feel better.  That works for me.  Heck gather up all of your friends and do it together.  Iím sure not going to tell you how to live your life.  Just quit yrying to tell me how to live mine.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2020, 10:28:49 am by Craig Lamson »
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Craig Lamson

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1583 on: February 14, 2020, 10:30:24 am »

Russ, I see mostly claims by non-scientific sources. I'd expect those to be mistaken more often than peer reviewed scientific studies. No surprise there.

Also, some 'predictions' are based on rational risk avoiding behavior by humans, and if this thread proves anything, some humans are so deep in denial that 'rational' is not an appropriate desciption. That's why many scientific models are rather optimistic, until human behavior (or the lack thereoff) forces them to readjust the models.

As mentioned, a behavior that limits global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius seems to give the best balance between upfront cost and later damage repair, yet we are heading in the direction of 3-5 degrees global warming if we do not react adequately to the challenges in front of us.

Ah yes, the my science is far better argument.   What a novel argument.
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Rob C

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1584 on: February 14, 2020, 10:33:30 am »

I have no problem if people want to drive electric cars and use solar and wind power. Don't want to eat beef?
Fine with  me.  The market will take care of that.  So much of this we just can't understand and can't control.  But I think its also a good idea to stop pretending that this will not be a situation where passing legislation to make us be good, it not really the end game.  There is raw political power at play here, at least IMO.


Raw political power at play. That reads cool, so tell me, what's that power, and what does it want to achieve?

Rob

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1585 on: February 14, 2020, 10:35:50 am »

Ah yes, the my science is far better argument.   What a novel argument.

It's also your science. One can ignore it, or not, that is a personal choice.
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Craig Lamson

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1586 on: February 14, 2020, 11:09:59 am »

It's also your science. One can ignore it, or not, that is a personal choice.

Its MY science?  But yes I can choose what to do with it.  The problem is I'm being told I don't have a choice, and I MUST succumb.  Do you see the problem with that?
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RSL

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1587 on: February 14, 2020, 11:12:01 am »

...yet we are heading in the direction of 3-5 degrees global warming if we do not react adequately to the challenges in front of us.

By "reacting adequately," Bart, I guess you're saying we should tell China and India "Naughty, naughty." That'll get them to quit using fossil fuels.

(Not that I buy the idea that fossil fuels will cause us all to roast.)
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1588 on: February 14, 2020, 11:17:04 am »

All religions have their doomsday scenarios and prophets... the scientific religion too.

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1589 on: February 14, 2020, 11:47:54 am »

I do not follow your knee-jerk reaction to progress. There are lots of jobs and innovation in renewable energy, fewer and fewer in e.g. coal.

...

You missed the economic considerations. Adding people to make the same amount of energy is less productive, not more.  More people raise the costs of any product.   Coal is very efficient as it's a mature industry that doesn;t need new people.  Creating alternative energy products that require more people means higher costs as what's happened in Germany where they're playing 2 1/2 times for electricity as Americans do.

If we got rid of tractors, a farm would need lots of more people to sow and reap.  More jobs. But the cost of food would skyrocket due to increasing costs of labor to farm the same amount of produce. 

The argument renewables create more jobs is a reason NOT to use them. 

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1590 on: February 14, 2020, 12:42:43 pm »

Its MY science?  But yes I can choose what to do with it.  The problem is I'm being told I don't have a choice, and I MUST succumb.  Do you see the problem with that?

Why would you want to lay the burdon on others, and do little yourself (e.g. the USA is the world's second largest producer of CO2), other than for selfish shortsighted reasons (that will turn against you as time is wasted)?

You do have a choice, but why make the wrong one?
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EricV

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1591 on: February 14, 2020, 12:56:30 pm »

The argument renewables create more jobs is a reason NOT to use them.
  Sadly, for most politicians, the choice to support project A, which creates lots of local jobs, versus project B, which accomplishes the same goal cheaply and efficiently, is obvious.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1592 on: February 14, 2020, 01:08:21 pm »

You missed the economic considerations.

On the contrary, I've said it several times already, but you seem to not grasp it. It's more costly to not act sensibly.

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Adding people to make the same amount of energy is less productive, not more.


Tell that to the coalminers.

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More people raise the costs of any product.   Coal is very efficient as it's a mature industry that doesn;t need new people.

You're kidding/trolling, aren't you?

Coal is not efficient when the true cost is incorporated. How much is (human) life worth to you?

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Creating alternative energy products that require more people means higher costs as what's happened in Germany where they're playing 2 1/2 times for electricity as Americans do.

No, we do not require more people for that. We require more energy as world population grows and we replace many processes with electric ones (not too many steam engines available anymore, are there?).

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If we got rid of tractors, a farm would need lots of more people to sow and reap.  More jobs. But the cost of food would skyrocket due to increasing costs of labor to farm the same amount of produce.
 

We are not replacing tractors with people, your example is ludicrous.

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The argument renewables create more jobs is a reason NOT to use them.

More skilled labor is needed not for its own sake, but to replace inefficient technology with higher quality jobs. More and better education is needed because jobs need that. There are fewer people entering the labor market, so they need to be better equipped for the tasks at hand. Export markets are expanding, so you should invest in people/skills and technology you can export and monetize (instead of importing/consuming more that you earn, which requires printing money and burdening future generations). One could go on, but I won't waste more words on it. "You can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink".

If only people would open their eyes... Not to stare at their bellybutton, but to look forward to the (no too distant) future.
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Craig Lamson

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1593 on: February 14, 2020, 01:17:53 pm »

Why would you want to lay the burdon on others, and do little yourself (e.g. the USA is the world's second largest producer of CO2), other than for selfish shortsighted reasons (that will turn against you as time is wasted)?

You do have a choice, but why make the wrong one?

Iím not placing any burdens on others.  You and they can do what ever wish wish or not.  No one is stopping you.    In fact  itís you who is placing the burden upon others based solely on your belief.

The problem is you believe yours is the only possible choice and you want ... or demand ... others  submit.   I reject that.  And Iím not alone. 
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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1594 on: February 14, 2020, 01:26:01 pm »

If we got rid of tractors, a farm would need lots of more people to sow and reap.  More jobs. But the cost of food would skyrocket due to increasing costs of labor to farm the same amount of produce. 

That's old thinking. Nowadays, many farms use the latest technology, enclosed greenhouses and robots. For cultivation, optimal watering, and harvest.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFxzWG-KGGU

faberryman

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1595 on: February 14, 2020, 01:40:16 pm »

I’m not placing any burdens on others.  You and they can do what ever wish wish or not.  No one is stopping you.    In fact  it’s you who is placing the burden upon others based solely on your belief.
What burden is being placed on you? I'm not seeing what it is that has you so riled up.

Craig Lamson

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1596 on: February 14, 2020, 01:47:11 pm »

What burden is being placed on you? I'm not seeing what it is that has you so riled up.

If it's not here today, it's what is being demanded for the future. Lets talk "New Green Deal" shall we?  You don't think that will be a burden?

Thats the problem I have.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1597 on: February 14, 2020, 02:29:01 pm »

Hottest January on record as Antarctica  temperature hits 20C for first time
Scientists agree that man-made greenhouse gas emissions are a significant cause of the current planetary warming
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/14/records-broken-hottest-ever-january/

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Last month was the hottest January on record, surpassing a previous high recorded in 2016, the US climate service said on Thursday.

Land and ocean surface temperatures surpassed the 20th century January average of 53.6F (12C) by 2.05F, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.
And they beat January 2016 - the hottest January since records began in 1880 - by a narrow 0.04F.

The news confirms a similar finding by the European Union's climate monitoring service last week, which used slightly different data.

It comes as the Antarctic has registered a temperature of more than 68F (20C) for the first time, prompting fears of climate instability.
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Scientists agree overwhelmingly that man-made greenhouse gas emissions are a significant cause of the planetary warming we are currently experiencing.

The United Nations said last year these need to tumble 7.6 per cent annually over the next decade to cap global warming at (2.7F) above pre-industrial levels, the aspirational goal set in the landmark Paris Agreement.
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faberryman

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1598 on: February 14, 2020, 02:32:51 pm »

If it's not here today, it's what is being demanded for the future. Lets talk "New Green Deal" shall we?  You don't think that will be a burden? Thats the problem I have.
Surely you are not losing sleep over the possibility the New Green Deal will pass in the House and Senate and be signed the President.

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1599 on: February 14, 2020, 02:35:08 pm »

Hottest January on record as Antarctica  temperature hits 20C for first time
Scientists agree that man-made greenhouse gas emissions are a significant cause of the current planetary warming
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/14/records-broken-hottest-ever-january/

Could be that the tipping point is closer than originally predicted. Once over that point, all climate models go out of the window.
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