After Photokina Medium Format rumors (UPD. And The WINNAH is FUUUJIIII !!! )

[eronald]

So far:
- I got it right for the IQ4 150 but didn't see Phase abandoning crop
- I got it right for the Fujis, but didn't get the pancake lens right (I predicted 40mm)
- I got the Leica S3 right.
- The Hasselblad news is still to drop as I write this
- C1 supporting Fuji is a completely unexpected development, as far a *I* am concerned.

Edmund

PS. You guys didn't like my Instagram. I am disappointed. I bet that when you go to Starbucks you don't tip.

[landscapephoto]

PS. You guys didn't like my Instagram. I am disappointed. I bet that when you go to Starbucks you don't tip.

Actually, I never go to Starbucks... or Instagram.

[eronald]

Actually, I never go to Starbucks... or Instagram.

Actually I'm not surprised.
Edmund

[siddhaarta]

Leica S3: As this was not in the press release, according to Profifoto.de, the Leica S3 will cost 24k EUR in Germany (should be 28k in USD).

This looks not so good (to put it mildly), considering the 4.5k USD price point for Fuji GFX-R and 10k USD for GFX-100.

On that bases, I would guess that the Hasselblad X2D, whenever it will be announced will be around 14k USD.

[Bo_Dez]

So far:
- I got it right for the IQ4 150 but didn't see Phase abandoning crop
- I got it right for the Fujis, but didn't get the pancake lens right (I predicted 40mm)
- I got the Leica S3 right.
- The Hasselblad news is still to drop as I write this
- C1 supporting Fuji is a completely unexpected development, as far a *I* am concerned.

Edmund

PS. You guys didn't like my Instagram. I am disappointed. I bet that when you go to Starbucks you don't tip.

Hasselblad doesn't even have a Press Conference scheduled so doesn't look like anything from them.

80mm 1.9 looks nice though.

[Bo_Dez]

Leica S3: As this was not in the press release, according to Profifoto.de, the Leica S3 will cost 24k EUR in Germany (should be 28k in USD).

This looks not so good (to put it mildly), considering the 4.5k USD price point for Fuji GFX-R and 10k USD for GFX-100.

On that bases, I would guess that the Hasselblad X2D, whenever it will be announced will be around 14k USD.

That Leica S3 seems like an exercise in madness if priced at $28k.

[eronald]

Leica S3: As this was not in the press release, according to Profifoto.de, the Leica S3 will cost 24k EUR in Germany.

This looks not so good, considering the 4.5k USD price point for Fuji GFX-R and 10k USD for GFX-100.

On that bases, I would guess that the Hasselblad X2D, whenever it will be announced will be around 14k USD.

Yes, one can expect a 30-40% markup on the Hassy, but the Fuji will be discounted very quickly to $7K or so, yielding an effective 2:1.

I think Hassy will have its cake and eat it by selling a modded version of the X1D-50C at $5-6K.

Edmund

[eronald]

That Leica S3 seems like an exercise in madness if priced at $28k.

Let's see what the trade in is.

Edmund

[BJL]

- The Hasselblad news is still to drop as I write this

You nailed it with the fast 80mm (f/1.9) and several other lenses from the roadmap.
Half credit for "XD2 ==> 100MP. Apart from the MP upgrade, I would expect on-sensor fast phase detect AF."
Yes that 100MP 44x33 sensor is to be deployed with on-sensor PDAF, but only Fujifilm has announced a camera with it so far.

[BJL]

Not according to my source, who held a prototype recently: GFX2 has IBIS.

And with that plan now confirmed according to https://www.dpreview.com/news/4993360090/fujifilm-developing-100mp-medium-format-with-phase-detection-and-ibis my fantasy comes one step closer to reality: a DMF camera with hand-holdable "sweep mode" for everything from panoramas to uncropped squares. Or more prosaically, hand-held video gets better.

Actually, I would guess that to get value from 100MP and base ISO speed of 100 while hand-holding, IBIS is almost necessary (only the two longest G lenses have OIS), and these cameras ask to be hand-held.

[eronald]

You nailed it with the fast 80mm (f/1.9) and several other lenses from the roadmap.
Half credit for "XD2 ==> 100MP. Apart from the MP upgrade, I would expect on-sensor fast phase detect AF."
Yes that 100MP 44x33 sensor is to be deployed with on-sensor PDAF, but only Fujifilm has announced a camera with it so far.

Thank you. I am a Popper fan. I believe in falsifiable predictions. So do you apparently.

Edmund

[Doug Peterson]

Actually, I would guess that to get value from 100MP and base ISO speed of 100 while hand-holding, IBIS is almost necessary (only the two longest G lenses have OIS), and these cameras ask to be hand-held.

We will be posting a set of hand held shots we did with the IQ4 150mp tomorrow. It shows, just as the math would predict, that you only need around a stop faster shutter speed than a D850 to get excellent sharpness/detail at 100% pixel view (the most aggressive way of comparing).

[eronald]

Doug,

 Is that in natural light,  with or without mirror lockup?

 I guess if you use flash, the question is irrelevant anyway

Edmund

We will be posting a set of hand held shots we did with the IQ4 150mp tomorrow. It shows, just as the math would predict, that you only need around a stop faster shutter speed than a D850 to get excellent sharpness/detail at 100% pixel view (the most aggressive way of comparing).

[wing1]

So we have three new Mfc but not one tilt and shift wide angle lens!

[HywelPhillips]

 I guess if you use flash, the question is irrelevant anyway

Not in my experience.

Even at the 30-40 megapixel range I find that flash duration isn't sufficiently short to guarantee ultimate per-pixel sharpness- at least not using my Hensel Porty 1200 system at the sort of powers needed to get to f/8 at base ISO. It's only going to get worse as the resolution continues to increase.

That's part of the reason why I care about things like electronic first shutter, leaf shutters and IBIS, even when shooting with flash. There are just so many ways to compromise sharpness down at the per-pixel level when shooting hand-held. I think this is part of the reason why there's a push towards shorter flash duration from the lighting manufacturers too.

Getting 12 megapixels optimally sharp was fairly easy. Getting 40 megapixels optimally sharp is trickier. Getting 100-150 megapixels optimally sharp is going to really push the boundaries.

Cheers, Hywel

[Doug Peterson]

Is that in natural light,  with or without mirror lockup?

Natural light, handheld, standard mirror function (i.e. not MUP).

[narikin]

So... was that it for Photokina 2018 ?
Fuji the big news, or, is there another shoe about to drop?

[Doug Peterson]

We will be posting a set of hand held shots we did with the IQ4 150mp tomorrow. It shows, just as the math would predict, that you only need around a stop faster shutter speed than a D850 to get excellent sharpness/detail at 100% pixel view (the most aggressive way of comparing).

Here is that article showing a hand hold test with the new XF IQ4 150mp at 1/60th with a 45mm lens.

Would I love another stop or two of hand-holdability from IBIS? Absolutely.

But if you gave me the choice between another clean stop of ISO or a stop of IBIS I wouldn't hesitate to pick the ISO. IBIS doesn't help unless you're in the gray zone between hand-holdable and not hand-holdable, nor does it help with moving subjects.

[eronald]

So... was that it for Photokina 2018 ?
Fuji the big news, or, is there another shoe about to drop?

Unless someone sends me an email (edmundronald at gmail dot com) I don't understand what's going on with Hassy, nor the extent of the agreement between Phase and Fuji.

Hassy is in a very bad place with the X1D now positioned opposite TWO very capable 50MP Fuji cameras at half the price. They have no announced model positioned against the announced 100MP Fuji which has strong specs. Based on Fuji's track record, those specs are credible.

Phase do not have any more horses in the cheaper races, and are also going to face a competitor at 1/4 the price when the GFX-100S comes out. A competitor which relies on their own C1 software (!).

Last not least, the 100MP crop Sony sensor which is causing all this ruckus is ... nowhere to be seen.


Edmund

[narikin]

Well that does seem to be it for bigger announcements.

Not clear why Phase summoned all its dealers to Germany, other than for a big 'jolly' - can anyone explain?

some things I'd like to see:

• The design schematic (elements/groups) of the new Fuji 50mm pancake lens, if anyone can find that.
• A link to the new Rodenstock 138mm HR lens (for tech camera stitching) which apparently goes above and beyond any LF lens ever for resolution!
• Some love for the Ricoh GRIII which got announced and is the ultimate pocket p/s.