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Author Topic: After Photokina Medium Format rumors (UPD. And The WINNAH is FUUUJIIII !!! )  (Read 36956 times)

eronald

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Re: After Photokina Medium Format: a little G sytem price skepticism
« Reply #420 on: October 27, 2018, 01:04:44 pm »

BJL

Of course I agree with all you say, but

1. using old tech made on a on obsolete fab line has been a recipe for cheap semiconductor prices for years. In fact most of the electronics industry works on microprocessors that cost the price of sand precisely because they are made on old fabs with high yields. As far as I  know.

2. Yields on the large silicon will keep pushing MF cheaper, because the yield on large chips keeps improving.

Edmund


There has been much enthusiasm about the downward price trend with Fujifilm GFX bodies in 44x33mm format, so I have some slightly skeptical thoughts. (About pricing, not the desirability of the products.)

The 50MP sensor used is relatively ancient and now more or less discontinued; it was the first CMOS sensor in a format larger than 36x24, arrived in the Phase One IQ250 and Hasselblad H5D-50c in March 2014 and the Pentax 645Z that April, and the latest Sony product lists drop it (and its 100MP 54x40mm big brother) in favor of the new 100MP 44x33 and 150MP 54x40 sensors. Indeed this sensor was already "old tech" by the time that Fujifilm and Hasselblad use in it their first EVF cameras. One sign of age is its lack of PDAF ability; a significant liability in a "live-view only" camera these days.

Note also the far higher price (around US$10,000) indicated for Fujifilm's forthcoming model, which will be the first "medium format" EVF camera using an "up to date" sensor, Sony's 100MP 44x33. That price is significantly more that the previous flagship of the GFX system, the 50R; such a price increase is a bit unusual for a new model in the same format.

So, my slightly skeptical thoughts:
  • Sony has paid off the fixed costs (R&D, production line setup etc.) on that 50MP sensor, and so is now selling it at close to unit production cost as it approaches end-of-life.
  • Fujifilm [and to some extent Hasselblad] are using those "discounted" sensors and also selling their new EVF bodies at low margins (or even at a loss) to build market share and undermine competitors (Phase One in particular). Remember that Sony lost money on DSLRs for some years; it is a rather common strategy for market insurgents.
  • US$10,000 might be a better indication of future pricing for a 44x33 camera with an up-to-date sensor that has a clear resolution advantage over smaller formats; maybe down to US$8,000 for an entry-level model like a future "GFX 100R".
This would still be a big step forward for affordable and flexible systems in a format larger than 36x24, giving them a chance to be far more widely used than MF DSLRs, but for context, high resolution EVF cameras in 36x24mm are looking to cost around US$3,000–4,000 and with lower resolution entry-level 36x24 models at around US$2,000.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2018, 09:00:58 pm by eronald »
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eronald

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Re: After Photokina Medium Format: a little G sytem price skepticism
« Reply #421 on: October 28, 2018, 06:45:59 am »

There’s a post up on Fujiaddict.com where you can see the 100 body in a glass case, and we get told that AF uses the T-3 focus processor “which cost millions”. Also the 50 pancake.

I guess we now know why no Hassy 100Mp: They can’t do full-sensor PDAF with their existing electronics platform. Or rather, they can only provide very limited functionality.

The smart thing at this point would be for Hassy to get merged into a company that has a larger market and an existing platform, eg.Pentax or Sony or even Nikon, although Nikon seem to have mirrorless AF issues too.

Edmund
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BJL

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Re: After Photokina Medium Format: a little G sytem price skepticism
« Reply #422 on: October 28, 2018, 12:02:24 pm »

I guess we now know why no Hassy 100Mp: They can’t do full-sensor PDAF with their existing electronics platform.
You have a good point; a lot of the advancements in camera technology develop from the bottom up, due to the far larger revenues and profits that those far higher volume cameras typically produce. For example, Pentax bought multi-point AF to the medium format world, and everything from electronic sensors to CMOS sensors to Live View to IBIS have gone in that direction — and now of course the latest advances in computational photography. (So why exactly would any mainstream camera maker want to cut themselves of from the ILC innovation hot-bed of MFT & APC-C format, and become hampered in the way the medium format-only companies are?!) Extrapolating, maybe Apple, Samsung or Google would be the most beneficial for Hasselbad or Phase One! — but maybe an ILC maker is a more likely partner.
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eronald

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Re: After Photokina Medium Format: a little G sytem price skepticism
« Reply #423 on: October 28, 2018, 06:59:20 pm »

I think Hassybwill just go for a less featured focus implementation initially; later Sony will probably sell that capability in the form of a chip set. Note that Nikon is clearly having serious issues with AF on the Z series.

Edmund


You have a good point; a lot of the advancements in camera technology develop from the bottom up, due to the far larger revenues and profits that those far higher volume cameras typically produce. For example, Pentax bought multi-point AF to the medium format world, and everything from electronic sensors to CMOS sensors to Live View to IBIS have gone in that direction — and now of course the latest advances in computational photography. (So why exactly would any mainstream camera maker want to cut themselves of from the ILC innovation hot-bed of MFT & APC-C format, and become hampered in the way the medium format-only companies are?!) Extrapolating, maybe Apple, Samsung or Google would be the most beneficial for Hasselbad or Phase One! — but maybe an ILC maker is a more likely partner.
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eronald

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Re: After Photokina Medium Format: a little G sytem price skepticism
« Reply #424 on: October 30, 2018, 06:32:32 pm »

The 50R is going on sale in a month.
I hear rumors of a possible lower price of the Hassy X1D.

Edmund
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: After Photokina Medium Format: a little G sytem price skepticism
« Reply #425 on: October 31, 2018, 12:51:36 am »

Note that Nikon is clearly having serious issues with AF on the Z series.

I guess it depends on what you call serious issues. I'd give both kidneys to have my H6D-100c focus' performance to reach 25% of what the Z7 can do.  ;D

The Z7 is at least as good as the previous generation of Sony mirrorless that most users were telling us is DSLR performance. ;)

Cheers,
Bernard

Kirk_C

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Re: After Photokina Medium Format: a little G sytem price skepticism
« Reply #426 on: October 31, 2018, 01:18:39 am »

The 50R is going on sale in a month.
I hear rumors of a possible lower price of the Hassy X1D.

GFXR50 Introductory prices end November 3rd. Though I wouldn't be surprised if these prices or even lower return for at least the holidays.

If the price on the X1D does in fact go down that would be very compelling ! I do love leaf shutters after 30+ years of using them  ;D

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eronald

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Re: After Photokina Medium Format: a little G sytem price skepticism
« Reply #427 on: October 31, 2018, 01:25:28 am »


I guess it depends on what you call serious issues. I'd give both kidneys to have my H6D-100c focus' performance to reach 25% of what the Z7 can do.  ;D

The Z7 is at least as good as the previous generation of Sony mirrorless that most users were telling us is DSLR performance. ;)

Cheers,
Bernard

Bernard,

 You might be right here the Nikon may be subject to a chip hardware issue with only Sony having access to the latest sensor. In which case the Fuji might enjoy the same -not so severe- problems.

 However that is still the most negative Nikon review I have ever seen over there, so I suspect the issues are really not minor compared to a pro-grade 35mm.

Edmund
« Last Edit: October 31, 2018, 01:32:34 am by eronald »
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eronald

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Re: After Photokina Medium Format: a little G sytem price skepticism
« Reply #428 on: October 31, 2018, 01:40:42 am »

GFXR50 Introductory prices end November 3rd. Though I wouldn't be surprised if these prices or even lower return for at least the holidays.

If the price on the X1D does in fact go down that would be very compelling ! I do love leaf shutters after 30+ years of using them  ;D

The silence from Hassy continues,to be deafening, while some really mouthwatering imagery from the 80 1.9 has gone up on dpreview.

Edmund
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Christopher

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I think the 100 and 150Mp Sensors are currently the newest ones Sony developed. Certainly better than anything they are using themself. I expect the new a9r to have the pixel number increases quite a bit to match the same pixel size they use for both of the medium format sensors.


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hubell

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Re: After Photokina Medium Format: a little G sytem price skepticism
« Reply #430 on: October 31, 2018, 08:24:26 am »

The silence from Hassy continues,to be deafening, while some really mouthwatering imagery from the 80 1.9 has gone up on dpreview.

Edmund

You do know that actions speak louder than words.

eronald

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Re: After Photokina Medium Format: a little G sytem price skepticism
« Reply #431 on: October 31, 2018, 10:11:37 am »

You do know that actions speak louder than words.

You do see that I'm reporting all sides of the story :)

Edmund
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eronald

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I think the 100 and 150Mp Sensors are currently the newest ones Sony developed. Certainly better than anything they are using themself. I expect the new a9r to have the pixel number increases quite a bit to match the same pixel size they use for both of the medium format sensors.


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Actually, speaking just for myself I disagree. I think the dev work on these is at least 3 years old. I'd expect the most current tech to be in the phone sensors which is the one single market which Sony Semi cannot afford to ignore.

Also, pixel density is one thing and the various focus aids for PDAF are another - this is a codesign between the hardware and the software that exploits the hardware outputs, and it is all time and geometry dependent.

In 35mm frame rate is important, and all the manufacturers need to decide how much processing bandwidth and RAM  they want to throw into the box to store and preprocess sensor output into Raw files and write to flash.  And that costs money and is probably as much responsible for what you see in the market as the ultimate feature size at which sensor pixels can be fabricated.

Edmund
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tintoreto

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Last friday i have «played» with the GFX 50r. As you can see on the picture below, the 50r has about the same size as the 50s.
Now the difference is not only the price - there are less features with a 50r. If you can live with it OK, but there are some
features the 50s have which i would not want to miss.

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faberryman

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Re: After Photokina Medium Format: a little G sytem price skepticism
« Reply #434 on: October 31, 2018, 04:57:33 pm »

You do see that I'm reporting all sides of the story :)
Actually, you are more hypothesizing than reporting.

eronald

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Re: After Photokina Medium Format: a little G sytem price skepticism
« Reply #435 on: October 31, 2018, 06:31:56 pm »

Actually, you are more hypothesizing than reporting.

How could I disagree? :)
That's why the thread is called "Rumors".

Edmund
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BJL

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Re: After Photokina Medium Format: a little G sytem price skepticism
« Reply #436 on: October 31, 2018, 08:28:09 pm »

You do see that I'm reporting all sides of the story :)
Actually, you are more hypothesizing than reporting.
How could I disagree? :)
That's why the thread is called "Rumors".
A rumor is usually a sound coming from more than one mouth (not counting the internet echo chamber effect); let's call some of your posts speculations/provocations, and protect the good name of reputable rumors!

Also, you said "reporting", which is an even higher claim than "rumor"!
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eronald

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Re: After Photokina Medium Format: a little G sytem price skepticism
« Reply #437 on: October 31, 2018, 08:49:00 pm »

A rumor is usually a sound coming from more than one mouth (not counting the internet echo chamber effect); let's call some of your posts speculations/provocations, and protect the good name of reputable rumors!

Also, you said "reporting", which is an even higher claim than "rumor"!

I'm sure you're right. Frankly I almost think this thread has just about served its purpose and might be archived -  were it not for the fact that I still feel that there is another shoe due to drop from Hasselblad.

Frankly I feel sad - not a single entity approached me with a view to disseminating biased copy. Such a blow to my narcissism!

Edmund
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