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Author Topic: After Photokina Medium Format rumors (UPD. And The WINNAH is FUUUJIIII !!! )  (Read 31144 times)

eronald

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Disclaimer: This is user-generated blog-style content, with no input from LuLa staff. The author is a former computer journalist and blogger based in Paris. His email is edmundronald at gmail dot com.

POST-PHOTOKINA UPDATE - October 13 2018.

At the end of Photokina 2018 we see Fuji seizing control of the Medium Format market, innovating like crazy and slashing pricing, while Phase retreats upmarket into 150MP territory and Hasselblad entirely fails to react.

- Fuji is ramping up to deliver the entry-level mirrorless $5K GFX 50R , and the $10K GFX100S is announced for 2019, with 50 and 100MP respectively. On the software side Fuji will be bundling a bespoke version of the respected Capture One Raw converter from Phase. Hasselblad finally made no body announcements at Photokina 2018, nor did Pentax.

- A number of adapters and third party lenses are starting to appear for the Fuji GFX system, among which the Mitakon 65mm F1.4. However there is still no native (non-adapted) Fuji TS lens in view.

My pre-Photokina expectations (update to reflect releases) are still below.



---------
Cheaper and more portable prosumer MF is making a comeback with mirrorless. Sensor evolution drives greater resolution, better AF, a transition to lighter mirroless systems, and a price overlap with high-end dSLR systems.

Formal release of the Sony full frame MF 150MP sensor and crop 100MP sensors will drive a major 2018 upgrade cycle of the medium format ecosystem, as it continues a fast transition towards mirrorless. Performance-updated systems with higher resolution and better focus and video are expected from Hasselblad and Fuji, together with a possible cheaper and more compact Fuji rangefinder-style camera body. As sensor prices decrease, and resolutions once more outdistance  35mm, new MF systems are becoming more portable. Thus mirroless MF is now directly competing in the prestige-client consumer space with high end dSLR systems such as the Nikon D5.   

Of note: The new Sony 100MP 44x33 chip should cost manufacturers basically the same as the existing 50MP44x33, thus in an ideal world all MF prices based on this size chip should continue to drift slowly lower. Old stock of the 50MP Sony chip may drive "special offer" sales and bundles in the coming months, and allow a cheap entry level rangefinder from Fuji that is intended for handheld use with IBIS.


Major updates are expected from Hassy and Fuji, and some Phase stuff. Here are my expectations, industry evolution is presently driven by the the Sony chip Roadmap.

Sony
- Formal release of the IMX411 150MP 53x40mm 3.76u back-illuminated sensor chip
- Formal release of the IMX461 100MP 44x33mm 3.76u back-illuminated sensor chip

Hasselblad:
- Hasselblad's stylish XD1 is now clearly gaining traction in the luxury lifestyle sector. Lenses, especially at the super-wide end, are selling like hot cakes. On the other hand the H lenses will show their age at 150MP over a large field. These are made by Fuji who are now competing with Hassy for every medium format customer. I believe that the lack of renewal of the H lenses is a clue to an impending mothballing of the H line. The H7D may be the last of its line.
- XD2 ==> 100MP. Apart from the MP upgrade, I would expect on-sensor fast phase detect AF.
- I also expect a low priced entry bundle for the X1D, to compete with the Fuji rangefinder, as long as stocks of the old Sony IMX161 50Mp chip last. A low-rez 50MP phase detect version of the XD seems improbable (to me).
- Also, H6D100==> H7D150 at the top end with 53x40mm chip. Possibly sensor phase detect AF. Video performance should be much improved. I think the H7D might be the last H body made.
- H7D100 with 44x33 chip.
- Production end for the H6D100
- Launch of the fast 80mm XCD lens, which is on the 2017 roadmap (aperture unknown).
- Several other lenses on the 2017 roadmap will move into production.
- There is clearly a marketing opportunity for a super-fast portrait lens with good bokeh (circular aperture) eg. 110mmF2.
- I expect an announcement of a super-wide lens for the X2D, taking advantage of the new BSI sensor.
- Some new lens announcements for the X2D, as the X1D has been very well received and lens production is going well, the lens roadmap will accelerate. It is already quite well supplied, a further indication that the XCD is not seen as a travel accessory for H owners, but that the XCD is a complete system that will rapidly take the place of the H.


Fuji:
- Fuji's interchangeable viewfinder GFX is arguably the technically most advanced MF camera, with a comparatively low pricepoint, and very good distribution. It seems to be making Fuji happy, concerning sales. The GFX seems to be gaining an audience with serious enthuisiasts and pros, as witnessed by tilt-shift adapters from third parties,but those customers may be expressing a strong desire for fullframe MF. It is possible that Fuji will migrate the GFX series upwards towards fullframe in a few product cycles, and repurpose the lens collection towards a lighter, cheaper rangefinder model.  Fuji does not have a 35mm fullframe offering.

- Low-priced ($3600?) Rangefinder style Fuji GFX 50R MF body  based on the current Sony IMX161 50Mp front illuminated sensor is said to be an oversized Fuji X-E3, bundled with a 40mm equivalent lens, which would put it in the "travel compact" (!) category. Top dials speed and compensation only, but indications of a fully articulated -2 axis-  screen and 2 SD card slots. 



-Rangefinder X-Pro style entry-level MF body based on the current Sony IMX161 50Mp front illuminated sensor
-First leaked photos of Fuji GFX 50R are surfacing, release date September 23, POSSIBLY SUPERLOW street price of $3.5-$4K at launch. This body may ship sooner than the GFX100. 
- GFX2 ==> 100MP probably with Ibis Possibly focus using phase detect on-sensor or hybrid AF. Sources agree on the feature set, but the exact date at which this model will start production may depend on the chip supply. Rumors indicate that this camera may be pushed into early 2019.


- At least one interesting lens announcement, I would expect a fast portrait telephoto. There are rumors of a fast standard lens.

 
Phase:
- Phase One seems to be progressively prioritising high-margin full-service institutional sales and rental. So far, they have a high-end price structure and no mirrorless offering.
--------------
     Announced (I got it right):
- Phase One IQ4 150mp
- Phase One IQ4 150mp Achromatic
- Phase One IQ4 100mp Trichromatic
All three use full-frame 645 sensors. Phase One is 100% focused on Full-Frame 645 solutions.
- IQ4 150 53x40mm back.
    False Rumour: (Egg on my face)
- 100Mp 44x33 back. Phase seems to be committing to fullframe MF only in the future, at least for IQ backs. No surprises given their upscale positioning.
--------------

- Production end for the current 100MP back.
- It's an open question whether the current XF body will be able to phase-detect AF with the Sony sensors, with a firmware upgrade, or whether an XF2 with main/(back) sensor AF will be announced.
- Confirmation of development of a mirrorless body will probably come with a reassurance to dealers that it doesn't quite compete with the cash-cow IQ backs.
- Phase seem to be in a parking orbit for the time being but could still surprise eg by reviving the DNA of the Mamiya MF rangefinders as a mirrorless MF camera.

Pentax:
- The obvious 645Z upgrade is a 645ZII with 100MP.
- Pentax pioneered the low-price crop-MF camera, but it seems Fuji out-innovated them, out-marketed them and ate their lunch, especially in Japan.

Leica:
- MF camera decisions for a followup/upgrade of the S7 are not public. There are unsubstantiated rumors.
- Only Sony has high-mp MF sensors at the moment. But I don't see Leica adopting a Sony sensor.
- Guessing is hard :)
- MirrorlessRumors is now stating there will be a Leica S3 announcement at Photokina, and Nokishita is confirming. My own expectations would be some modest update to the current model, but I guess a mirrorless MF camera is a possibility. Some have suggested this will consist of an upgrade to 64MP, with a possibility of updating existing cameras by means of a board swap.
- https://www.mirrorlessrumors.com/leica-will-announce-the-new-s3-medium-format-camera-at-photokina/
https://mobile.twitter.com/nokishita_c/status/1036964731771215872

Third party lens conversions, active/passive adapters, legacy lens focal length changers, tilt/shift, bellows etc
- Alpa already has an X1D lens adapter that can also turn an X1D into an Alpa camera back.
- Kipon has 7 X1D adapters for different lens systems, including Canon EF.
- I would expect more lens adapters and some tilt/shift devices and bellows to be presented at Photokina for both Hassy and Fuji mounts as both the Hassy and Fuji have now reached critical market size. For now, the Fuji seems to be getting more "pro" tilt/shift love
- Anounced: Hartblei FUJI GFX Hartblei Superrotator Zeiss 4/120 Macro for Fuji GFX

- Shipping: Hartblei DRS adapter to GFX of Canon tilt/shift lenses. 100MP you don't need but SHIFT, now that is really really useful. The Canon tilt/shift lenses are well known and much loved in the industry.  Hartblei are going to be very very busy making them.
- One can expect someone to market an optical downscale adapter, as Metabones, that reduces the image circle for legacy MF lenses, while creating a faster lens.
- It will be interesting to see whether someone will make an active optical upscale adapter for 35mm lenses to enlarge the image circle, as now sometimes seen in video use.



Edmund
« Last Edit: October 13, 2018, 04:30:45 pm by eronald »
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Photokina rumor and announcement Medium Format thread
« Reply #1 on: August 25, 2018, 07:06:49 pm »

Agreed, but I think it’s going to be an H7D-150c and that it will have as an option, if not standard, an EVF.

I also expect at least one new H lens with an optimized AF a la X1D lenses, and I would like it to be a 110mm f2.0.

Cheers,
Bernard

BJL

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Re: Photokina rumor and announcement Medium Format thread
« Reply #2 on: August 25, 2018, 07:30:59 pm »

Fuji: GFX2 ==> 100MP ***with Ibis***.
Edmund: IBIS would be cool for a high resolution camera aimed in good part at hand-held shooting and capable if using with many older non stabilized lenses. Where is this on the scale from "wishlist" to "inside information"?

Bernard: offering an EVF—at least an accessory—on a big, heavy, expensive SLR with live view seems obvious. Yet it keeps not happening, to my surprise!
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eronald

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Re: Photokina rumor and announcement Medium Format thread
« Reply #3 on: August 25, 2018, 07:35:30 pm »

Edmund: IBIS would be cool for a high resolution camera aimed in good part at hand-held shooting and capable if using with many older non stabilized lenses. Where is this on the scale from "wishlist" to "inside information"?

Bernard: offering an EVF—at least an accessory—on a big, heavy, expensive SLR with live view seems obvious. Yet it keeps not happening, to my surprise!

BJL, It's all just random fantasy. In my youth I was paid to write a rumours column for a computer magazine so I enjoy making things up.
In this particular case we have information released by the main supplier, sightings and the past track record of vendors to guide us.

Bernard,  I'm amending the list slightly.

Edmund
« Last Edit: August 25, 2018, 10:06:35 pm by eronald »
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landscapephoto

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Re: Photokina rumor and announcement Medium Format thread
« Reply #4 on: August 26, 2018, 02:53:56 am »

Bernard: offering an EVF—at least an accessory—on a big, heavy, expensive SLR with live view seems obvious. Yet it keeps not happening, to my surprise!

I am curious: why do you want an EVF, when MF SLRs have large and clear OVFs?
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Photokina rumor and announcement Medium Format thread
« Reply #5 on: August 26, 2018, 06:16:14 am »

I am curious: why do you want an EVF, when MF SLRs have large and clear OVFs?

Because focusing accurately and consistently a 100mp MF camera manually is a challenge, especially with AF lenses.

Besides it would make AF possible across the field like on X1D or GFX.

Cheers,
Bernard

BernardLanguillier

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Re: Photokina rumor and announcement Medium Format thread
« Reply #6 on: August 26, 2018, 06:18:41 am »

Bernard,  I'm amending the list slightly.

I am very honored! 😀

Cheers,
Bernard

eronald

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Re: Photokina rumor and announcement Medium Format thread
« Reply #7 on: August 26, 2018, 09:47:16 am »

I am very honored! 😀

Cheers,
Bernard

I await your further input, Bernard :)

Edmund
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narikin

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Re: Photokina rumor and announcement Medium Format thread
« Reply #8 on: August 26, 2018, 11:33:41 am »

BJL, It's all just random fantasy. In my youth I was paid to write a rumours column for a computer magazine so I enjoy making things up.
In this particular case we have information released by the main supplier, sightings and the past track record of vendors to guide us.

Edmund

Not according to my source, who held a prototype recently: GFX2 has IBIS.
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hubell

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Re: Photokina rumor and announcement Medium Format thread
« Reply #9 on: August 26, 2018, 02:50:25 pm »

Not according to my source, who held a prototype recently: GFX2 has IBIS.

For landscape use, who cares? If I am on a tripod, which I always am if I am shooting seriously, I want IBIS completely off. For street photography, I wouldn’t use medium format. Same with family snapshots. Probably irrelevant for fashion as well, as the use of sophisticated artificial lighting setups typically involves the use of larger apertures and high shutter speeds.

eronald

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Re: Photokina rumor and announcement Medium Format thread
« Reply #10 on: August 26, 2018, 03:25:02 pm »

For landscape use, who cares? If I am on a tripod, which I always am if I am shooting seriously, I want IBIS completely off. For street photography, I wouldn’t use medium format. Same with family snapshots. Probably irrelevant for fashion as well, as the use of sophisticated artificial lighting setups typically involves the use of larger apertures and high shutter speeds.

You are absolutely right, a photographer should always carry a tripod. And preferably a small stool to be able to sit and compose carefully.
 ;)

Edmund
« Last Edit: August 26, 2018, 03:37:47 pm by eronald »
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narikin

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Re: Photokina rumor and announcement Medium Format thread
« Reply #11 on: August 26, 2018, 03:25:46 pm »

For landscape use, who cares? If I am on a tripod, which I always am if I am shooting seriously, I want IBIS completely off. For street photography, I wouldn’t use medium format. Same with family snapshots. Probably irrelevant for fashion as well, as the use of sophisticated artificial lighting setups typically involves the use of larger apertures and high shutter speeds.

You're making the error  of assuming everyone else's needs are identical to yours. They are not.
I emphatically would welcome IBIS in MF digital.
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hubell

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Re: Photokina rumor and announcement Medium Format thread
« Reply #12 on: August 26, 2018, 04:52:26 pm »

You're making the error  of assuming everyone else's needs are identical to yours. They are not.
I emphatically would welcome IBIS in MF digital.

No assumptions, I just couldn't see the use case. How would YOU use IBIS with a medium format camera?

landscapephoto

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Re: Photokina rumor and announcement Medium Format thread
« Reply #13 on: August 26, 2018, 05:12:46 pm »

Because focusing accurately and consistently a 100mp MF camera manually is a challenge, especially with AF lenses.

??? If you have AF lenses, why not use that to focus? My ancient H4D focuses perfectly without EVF and so does the H6D 100 mpix version.

Moreover, we don't agree on what a viewfinder is designed for. I use that for composition, not for focus.

Besides it would make AF possible across the field like on X1D or GFX.

That is not really a feature of the EVF, but of the sensor.
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Re: Photokina rumor and announcement Medium Format thread (UPDATING)
« Reply #14 on: August 26, 2018, 05:29:02 pm »

Shadowblade,

Apologies, I am done arguing with you.

Cheers,
Bernard

eronald

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Re: Photokina rumor and announcement Medium Format thread (UPDATING)
« Reply #15 on: August 26, 2018, 05:47:34 pm »

Shadowblade,

Apologies, I am done arguing with you.

Cheers,
Bernard

Hey Bernard,

 since you're here d'you have any gossip you'd like to pass on? ;)

Edmund
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Photokina rumor and announcement Medium Format thread (UPDATING)
« Reply #16 on: August 26, 2018, 07:26:02 pm »

since you're here d'you have any gossip you'd like to pass on? ;)

Yes, I hear that the step sister of my cousin may be about to buy a new Golf...

Cheers,
Bernard

Paul2660

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Re: Photokina rumor and announcement Medium Format thread (UPDATING)
« Reply #17 on: August 26, 2018, 07:28:50 pm »

IBIS on MF would be a positive.  Hasselblad could possibly use it in a future X1? with their version of Pixel shift, I can't remember their name for it. Fuji did not offer it on the X-H1 but maybe can bring it into play on the GFX100s (whatever it will be called).  Huge deal for me as I have seen just what pixel shift can offer with the K1. 

For Phase One, it would be an excellent addition as I prefer many time to hand hold a MF system.  Since I double P1 will ever come out with VR/OIS style lenses, it would be great to have it in a back.  For me P1 = tripod and there are many times I just want the freedom of hand holding. 

Fuji/GFX with OIS on the lenses that offer it that I have, 120mm and 250mm is amazing at least for me.  The ability to take that camera of tripod and hand hold large series pano's is wonderful and frees up many shots I just would not have taken. IBIS would extend this to non Fuji lenses or Fuji lenses without OIS like the 32-64, which I would dearly love to have stabilization.

Last spring in Yosemite, I had both the 3100/XF and GFX.  After two days of stopping, extending the tripod lens, taking a shot, then packing it all back up, I was happy to carry the GFX for the rest of my hiking.  Really only needed the tripod for slower shutter speeds/water, but during last spring and the massive flood such shutter speeds were really out of the question on most streams.  Happily carried the GFX and it did free me up for many shots I just would have passed on other wise with the P1. Not to mention the fact that with a 128GB card the P1 takes about 14 seconds to come into use after power up, 12 to 14 seconds each time you power on.  GFX instantly ready to shoot, like a Nikon or Canon.

If I was still 40 or so years old, maybe, but not now. 

It will be interesting to see what finally gets announced.  But 150Mp for me is a non issue.  Just don't need the overhead.

Paul C
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eronald

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Re: Photokina rumor and announcement Medium Format thread (UPDATING)
« Reply #18 on: August 26, 2018, 08:22:21 pm »

Yes, I hear that the step sister of my cousin may be about to buy a new Golf...

Cheers,
Bernard

Bernard - are you ok?
You sound a bit less funny than your usual self.

Edmund
« Last Edit: August 26, 2018, 08:39:24 pm by eronald »
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Re: Photokina rumor and announcement Medium Format thread (UPDATING)
« Reply #19 on: August 26, 2018, 09:24:05 pm »

Bernard - are you ok?
You sound a bit less funny than your usual self.

I am sorry I did disappoint... it must be the stress generated by the single memory card slot on the Z7... lack of sleep... you know...

Cheers,
Bernard
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