Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa

[Alan Klein]

Is that a lot of money?

What do Interstates cost? What do 700 military bases cost? How much money is spent in Vegas or in online gambling? How much money do you spend on the "war on drugs" or "stopping sex work", neither of which ever seem to go away or even diminish very much?

The question with public expenditures, especially on infrastructure costs, is always the same and no one ever asks it, and it's the most important question, "What will it cost if you don't do it?"

The problem is they'll have to print more money.  We're already entering a stagflation era like the 1970s.  Inflation went up the highest in thirty years last month.  This spending will make it worse.  We'll have better roads but the price of gasoline going up will mean you'll have to walk to the store.  Maybe they'll fix the sidewalks too. 

[TechTalk]

Inflation went up the highest in thirty years last month.

"The annual inflation rate in the US eased to 5.3% in August from a 13-year high of 5.4% reported in June and July, matching market expectations." Thirteen years not thirty.

This would be reasonably expected to happen. 2020 was an unusual year as the pandemic caused a constriction in economic activity. When economic activity suddenly reverses, as it has over the past twelve months, you would expect to see inflation rise as a result. Fortunately, there was no whiplash in inflation or deflation comparable to GDP growth between the 2nd and 3rd quarters of last year.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

https://www.federalreserve.gov/pressreleases/monetary20210922

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/feds-evans-inflation-expectations-not-out-hand-2021-09-30

[chez]

The problem is they'll have to print more money.  We're already entering a stagflation era like the 1970s.  Inflation went up the highest in thirty years last month.  This spending will make it worse.  We'll have better roads but the price of gasoline going up will mean you'll have to walk to the store.  Maybe they'll fix the sidewalks too. 

Little walking never hurt anyone. If everyone walked 10km a day...you'd save a huge amount on health care that can be spent on roads.

[JoeKitchen]

Take your time. No rush. In the interim, you might want to read the new book by Bob Woodward, Peril.

I just started "The Brothers Karamazov," so maybe after that.  Although no promises; I'm more of a literature fan then non-fiction. 

[JoeKitchen]

unfortunately I think they going to pass both bills. The social bill will probably be negotiated at 1.9 trillion which sounds a lot like the 1.5 trillion that Manchin said he could accept. 2 trillion is a step too far. So they'll get it at 1.9T plus the infrastructure. That's my prediction.

I doubt it.  Biden has just hit the brick wall called Manchin-Sinema and now has to start over.  It takes time to build up momentum, getting everyone on board to sign onto something, not to mention you need this to come at fruition at the right time. 

Sinema already stated, last week, if the progressives sink the BIF bill, she will be an automatic no vote on any reconciliation bill, regardless.  She is now back in AZ, and negotiating over Zoom ain't as good as the real thing.  Likewise, Manchin has stated he will not agree to linking the two bills together, which Biden is still trying to do, along with, if you dont like it, "work on electing more liberals!"  Not to mention, he is still pushing for a strategic pause until 2022. 

Can both of these be overcome?  Maybe, but not over night or even a fortnight. 

By the time Biden rebuilds the momentum, it will be 2022, and ain't nothing ever happening in an election year. 

Rack up another Biden bugle. 

Perhaps in the meantime, Biden can make PR a state.  What happened to that campaign promise? 

[JoeKitchen]

Is that a lot of money?

What do Interstates cost? What do 700 military bases cost? How much money is spent in Vegas or in online gambling? How much money do you spend on the "war on drugs" or "stopping sex work", neither of which ever seem to go away or even diminish very much?

The question with public expenditures, especially on infrastructure costs, is always the same and no one ever asks it, and it's the most important question, "What will it cost if you don't do it?"

It's not an infrastructure bill, but an entitlement bill that fundamentally changes how people view the government in a socialist fashion. 

Socialism never works, and will not work here either.  This is the Great Society all over again, and that brought us economic ruin and stagflation.  I would prefer not to live through it myself. 

[Alan Klein]

"The annual inflation rate in the US eased to 5.3% in August from a 13-year high of 5.4% reported in June and July, matching market expectations." Thirteen years not thirty.

This would be reasonably expected to happen. 2020 was an unusual year as the pandemic caused a constriction in economic activity. When economic activity suddenly reverses, as it has over the past twelve months, you would expect to see inflation rise as a result. Fortunately, there was no whiplash in inflation or deflation comparable to GDP growth between the 2nd and 3rd quarters of last year.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

https://www.federalreserve.gov/pressreleases/monetary20210922

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/feds-evans-inflation-expectations-not-out-hand-2021-09-30

Thirty years not 13.
https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEKSDRa7TldH-mHqV1GHbzDEqFwgEKg8IACoHCAowjuuKAzCWrzww9oAY?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen

[TechTalk]

All I get from your link is a paywall/login screen.

[TechTalk]

It's not an infrastructure bill, but an entitlement bill that fundamentally changes how people view the government in a socialist fashion. 

Socialism never works, and will not work here either.  This is the Great Society all over again, and that brought us economic ruin and stagflation.  I would prefer not to live through it myself.

If you stand in the right (far right) ideological spot, nearly everything looks like socialism and ruin.

[TechTalk]

I would prefer not to live through it myself.

Dramatic. I've heard that previous generations lived thru much worse than infrastructure bills, the Great Society, and stagflation.

[TechTalk]

I just started "The Brothers Karamazov," so maybe after that.  Although no promises; I'm more of a literature fan then non-fiction.

I've noticed a tendency towards fiction and drama.

[Alan Klein]

All I get from your link is a paywall/login screen.

Its from a NYTimes article.  The difference could be that different statistics are being used to determine inflation rates.  The point whether its 13 or 30 is that inflation has started to get out of hand.  It could repeat what happened 40-50 year ago when we had double digit infltion. 

From the NYT article:
https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEKSDRa7TldH-mHqV1GHbzDEqFwgEKg8IACoHCAowjuuKAzCWrzww9oAY?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen
The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation climbed in August at the quickest pace in 30 years, data released on Friday showed, keeping policymakers on edge as evidence mounts that rapidly rising prices are poised to last longer than practically any of them had expected earlier this year.

[Robert Roaldi]

It's not an infrastructure bill, but an entitlement bill that fundamentally changes how people view the government in a socialist fashion. 

Socialism never works, and will not work here either.  This is the Great Society all over again, and that brought us economic ruin and stagflation.  I would prefer not to live through it myself.

Every economy on earth is a mixed economy, except for maybe small pockets of criminally dominated economies. No one has ever lived in any other kind, including the US. Are you saying the entire planet is a failure?

Besides, what economic ruin are you referring to? Do you mean the greatest economic successes in history of the last century, do you mean THAT economic ruin?

[LesPalenik]

The problem is they'll have to print more money.  We're already entering a stagflation era like the 1970s.  Inflation went up the highest in thirty years last month.  This spending will make it worse.  We'll have better roads but the price of gasoline going up will mean you'll have to walk to the store.  Maybe they'll fix the sidewalks too. 

The official inflation numbers (4.3% in August) are substantially understated. Some items in my local stores, including food, haircuts and construction materials were raised by 30-40% this year.

[JoeKitchen]

If you stand in the right (far right) ideological spot, nearly everything looks like socialism and ruin.

I hate to break it to you, but you are the ideologue here.  You may profess otherwise, but you, on every opportunity, always take the left position. 

[JoeKitchen]

Dramatic. I've heard that previous generations lived thru much worse than infrastructure bills, the Great Society, and stagflation.

Annnnnnnnd ... we learned what did not work and, therefore, did not destine our children to live through the mistakes we made.  Progress is a thing, along with self-examination. 

Just like I would like to not live through serfdom to learn the lessons so obvious by studying those whom did, I also would like to not live through stagflation. 

[JoeKitchen]

I've noticed a tendency towards fiction and drama.

And yet, in "Crime and Punishment," the charactors from 1860s St. Petersburg have the same exact political arguments that we are having today. 

Razumikhin's bantor with the socialist guests at his Uncle's party, Raskolnikoff's description of his extraordinary man theory, and the arguments of Luzhin with his roommate Lebezyatnikov mirror almost identical what we have debated here, on this forum. 

I very much doubt Woodward will live through the ages like Dostoevsky will, or even to the same extent Dostoevsky has to this point in time.  500 years from now, Dostoevsky will still be in print, whereas Woodward will be a forgotten soul. 

[JoeKitchen]

Every economy on earth is a mixed economy, except for maybe small pockets of criminally dominated economies. No one has ever lived in any other kind, including the US. Are you saying the entire planet is a failure?

Besides, what economic ruin are you referring to? Do you mean the greatest economic successes in history of the last century, do you mean THAT economic ruin?

The greatest economy ever has been the USA's since 1776, based almost solely on individual enterprise and achievement.  Any economy, no matter how successful prior, that has given into socialist policy, has failed.  Venezuela is a great example of such that has.  Cuba is another example. 

Compare East to West Berlin, with the same culture and prior economy, and you will see the same thing. 

North and South Korea is another example. 

History has almost never provided us with so clear and concrete comparisons.  How many more do you need until you see the truth?  Redistribution policies do not work. 

[JoeKitchen]

I've noticed a tendency towards fiction and drama.

PS.

Although, someone like you, an ideologue on of non-fiction, may not like to admit it, literature is more inspirational then non-fiction.  As an example, I, and we, and we as westerners, whether we can admit it or not, have two conflicting views on Africa.  One that comes from Joseph Conard's "The Heart of Darkness," and another from Chinua Achebe's "Things Fall Apart."  I have read both, and the stories are at the heart of us on being westerners when it comes to White Savorism.  If you do not know what I mean, read both and you will instantly understand.  Immerse yourself and you will find it hard not to ponder on your ideas of what it means to help people, especially after reeding "Things Fall Apart.".  These are conflicting views, and views hard to tell which is right.  I take the Chinua Achebe's view of leaving things along, but where do you fall? 

Most have never been confronted with this choice, but literature forces you to unlike anything non-fiction could.

Even stand alone, do you really think anything in the real world could make you question yourself like Hamlet would?  "To be or not to be, that is the question?"  What in real life asks you to explain to yourself why you should not kill yourself? 

I have pondered the question, many times.  I have always come to the answer of "no," but who can say what tomorrow brings.  I need no pity; just stating a fact of life.  We all feel lowes, but what justifies us living?  Life!

[James Clark]

I hate to break it to you, but you are the ideologue here.  You may profess otherwise, but you, on every opportunity, always take the left position.