US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)

Biden

14 (66.7%)

Trump

7 (33.3%)

Total Members Voted: 21

Voting closed: November 02, 2020, 06:25:59 pm

[JoeKitchen]

Yeah, its worse elsewhere is always a winning argument.

Just like always comparing us to your own vision of Utopia, I'm sorry, I mean a "more perfect union" without ever defining what you are talking about. 

What gets me the most with so many people is that they think the current state of things in the USA is akin to (as Douglas Murray put it) the color of paint before you add any color to it.  As if this is the normal state of being is and if we just start over, we would end up right where we are now. 

We would not.  The normal state of being is racism, tribalism, oppression, poverty and so many other bad things.  Yet, I see so many on the left, not necessarily you but people you are allying yourself with, insisting we should break the whole system down and start over like we would ever get back to where we are now. 

It is almost certain we would not. 

So when I see one side insisting that America is the fruit of the poisonous tree because we had slavery (like every culture throughout history) and we therefore need to tear the whole system down and start over versus America is an exceptional country that has the best ideals in history, ideals we did not always live up to but none the less are worth fighting for and improving, it is a pretty easy choice.


You know, I always see the statement we need to be taught to be racist.  No, we need to be taught not to be racist.  All mammals are born with the trait to trust what ever looks like your parents and to distrust what ever does not, a rather important evolutionary trait that keeps young mammals from being eaten.  Yet, for us, it breads tribalism.  Now there is always room for improvement, but to insist we should start over, I'm not buying that. 

[Alan Klein]

Noting whatsoever but the topic of health care has come up several times wrt pre-existing conditions and Obamacare with people making comments about non-USA health and I thought this was a useful addition to the discussion. I gave a description of what it was in the post, please don't listen to it if it does not interest you.

Well I ask the question because you asked the same question of me in your post 3579 - What does this have to do with the US election? I was returning the favor

[Alan Klein]

You mean like Hannity?

Hannity is a talking head, a talk show host who takes political positions like everyone on CNN.  He's not Fox news nor a journalist.  But the main point is 90% of media is anti-Trump in supposedly unbiased press like the NY Times and the Washington Post and on public broadcast news like ABC  NBC and CBS.  It's this media that's letting down the public by providing one-side journalism.  It's basically propaganda, not news.

[Alan Klein]

And from whence does this responsibility arise.

Well, the Constitution provides freedom of the press.  Our founders thought that we needed some way of getting the truth, all the truth, to the public so they could make informed decisions in a representative democracy when they vote and take other public actions. When journalists think they are suppose to use the news to influence the public with their beliefs, they forgot what they learned in Journalism 101.

[MattBurt]

Ahhh, here we go, the  very fine people quote, yet again taken out of context and not aknowledging he denounced white nationals in the same exact sentence right before saying that.  Not the paragraph, but the same exact sentence. 

Get your facts straight Matt.  But if you cant, here is a link from USA Today explaining it to you,

Trump did condemn white supremacists, too bad so many people won't listen

BTW, nice to see you being fooled by the linguistic over load of Antifa.  Do you think the People Republic of North Korea is a republic too? 

Antifa has a flag, they have a uniform, they have leaders, they are an organization.  They are not anti-facist as they imply, but far left radicals using the same fascist tactics as all fascists do, like sending out brown shirts to shut people up.

He was conveniently ambiguous enough with his poor command of the English language that if white nationalists were looking for a call to action, they could still find it in his words. Maybe it's just sloppy speech but it's a pattern that he repeats and that they respond to. A few more, just off the top of my head: There was also the Mexican rapists and murders thing, the debate callout to the Proud Boys,  Obama birtherism, etc.

Do you have a citation for your Antifa "facts"? That doesn't come from a right wing fake news source? I don't doubt that is written somewhere but I do doubt it's true. Now I'll admit I'm not an authority on all things Antifa and things could be changing but it has always been considered a philosophy and not an organization by design.

I'm a pacifist so I don't fully embrace the Antifa movement, but I do understand why some feel like they need to escalate even if I do not agree.

[faberryman]

Just like always comparing us to your own vision of Utopia, I'm sorry, I mean a "more perfect union" without ever defining what you are talking about. 

What gets me the most with so many people is that they think the current state of things in the USA is akin to (as Douglas Murray put it) the color of paint before you add any color to it.  As if this is the normal state of being is and if we just start over, we would end up right where we are now. 

We would not.  The normal state of being is racism, tribalism, oppression, poverty and so many other bad things.  Yet, I see so many on the left, not necessarily you but people you are allying yourself with, insisting we should break the whole system down and start over like we would ever get back to where we are now. 

It is almost certain we would not. 

So when I see one side insisting that America is the fruit of the poisonous tree because we had slavery (like every culture throughout history) and we therefore need to tear the whole system down and start over versus America is an exceptional country that has the best ideals in history, ideals we did not always live up to but none the less are worth fighting for and improving, it is a pretty easy choice.


You know, I always see the statement we need to be taught to be racist.  No, we need to be taught not to be racist.  All mammals are born with the trait to trust what ever looks like your parents and to distrust what ever does not, a rather important evolutionary trait that keeps young mammals from being eaten.  Yet, for us, it breads tribalism.  Now there is always room for improvement, but to insist we should start over, I'm not buying that.

I think you are overreacting, and have worked yourself into a lather.  I could go into a long dissertation about it, but the sun is out and it's a beautiful, crisp fall day, and I am going to take my dogs for a long walk, without a mask, though I'll have one handy in case I meet someone who wants to say hello to my dogs, because it's the neighborly thing to do even if it may not be all that effective at preventing the spread of coronavirus, and just enjoy the fresh air and companionship. I suggest you do the same, even if you don't have dogs. It might help you gain a better perspective on things.

[Alan Klein]

I think LuLa provides more balanced reporting of news than most media today.  The NY Times doesn;t allow me to give my point without their review of every word.  At least here, you can read both sides of issues.  And for that I'm thankful.   

[Robert Roaldi]

Well I ask the question because you asked the same question of me in your post 3579 - What does this have to do with the US election? I was returning the favor

I figured as much, but at least health care has something to do with the election.

[Robert Roaldi]

I think LuLa provides more balanced reporting of news than most media today.  The NY Times doesn;t allow me to give my point without their review of every word.  At least here, you can read both sides of issues.  And for that I'm thankful.

I don't know why you think there are only two sides to an issue, but I think I know what you mean.

[Alan Klein]

He was conveniently ambiguous enough with his poor command of the English language that if white nationalists were looking for a call to action, they could still find it in his words. Maybe it's just sloppy speech but it's a pattern that he repeats and that they respond to. A few more, just off the top of my head: There was also the Mexican rapists and murders thing, the debate callout to the Proud Boys,  Obama birtherism, etc.

Do you have a citation for your Antifa "facts"? That doesn't come from a right wing fake news source? I don't doubt that is written somewhere but I do doubt it's true. Now I'll admit I'm not an authority on all things Antifa and things could be changing but it has always been considered a philosophy and not an organization by design.

I'm a pacifist so I don't full embrace the Antifa movement, but I do understand why some feel like they need to escalate even if I do not agree.

Trump talks colloquially, He doesn't choose his words carefully like a normal politician does.  He's a Queen's real estate developer from NYC. They've learned to talk out of both sides of their mouths with eloquence talking all sides so they offend no one.  Regarding rapists and murderers, I remember that speech.  He was referring to some of the cross border Mexicans not all of them. The point being that we were letting in some bad people.  OF course ht==that was twisted to make it seem like he was referring to everyone.  Same with Obama tapping Trump's phone another expression meaning secret surveillance but twisted by the press to make it seem like he meant Obama was actually listening in on his phone.  His words are twisted all the time. 

[faberryman]

I don't know why you think there are only two sides to an issue, but I think I know what you mean.

It is called black and white thinking, and is a logical fallacy, at the very minimum.

[Alan Klein]

It is called black and white thinking, and is a logical fallacy, at the very minimum.

You both are playing word games.   Just what you do with Trump.  Everyone else knows what I mean.

[faberryman]

Trump talks colloquially, He doesn't choose his words carefully like a normal politician does.  He's a Queen's real estate developer from NYC. They've learned to talk out of both sides of their mouths with eloquence talking all sides so they offend no one.  Regarding rapists and murderers, I remember that speech.  He was referring to some of the cross border Mexicans not all of them. The point being that we were letting in some bad people.  OF course ht==that was twisted to make it seem like he was referring to everyone.  Same with Obama tapping Trump's phone another expression meaning secret surveillance but twisted by the press to make it seem like he meant Obama was actually listening in on his phone.  His words are twisted all the time.

If he insists on being a salesman from Queens, some people will treat him like a salesman from Queens. It is his own damn fault. If you want to genuflect before a salesman from Queens, that's your choice, but don't whine about it when others don't do the same.

[Peter McLennan]

But the main point is 90% of media is anti-Trump in supposedly unbiased press like the NY Times and the Washington Post and on public broadcast news like ABC  NBC and CBS.  It's this media that's letting down the public by providing one-side journalism. It's basically propaganda, not news.

Did it ever occur to you that your anti-Trump 90% of MSM might actually be correct?  And that the other 10% that are supposedly pro-Trump might actually be wrong?

I mean, heck.  9:1 odds are pretty steep.

[Peter McLennan]

He's a Queen's real estate developer from NYC. They've learned to talk out of both sides of their mouths with eloquence talking all sides so they offend no one.  His words are twisted all the time.

No.  His words are not "twisted all the time".  He says what he says. 
And please don't use the word "eloquence" when referring to Trump. He is anything but.

[faberryman]

Well, the Constitution provides freedom of the press.

Well, if they are free, they can cover or not cover the stories they want, and be pro-Trump or anti-Trump, or whatever else. It's their decision. The Constitution doesn't say the press has to be fair. You are an originalist, so quit complaining about it. I don't remember the press being fair when the Founding Fathers were around, so I don't know why you expect them to be fair now. The next thing you know you'll be complaining that Upton Sinclair didn't also write a book on the favorable aspects of the meat packing industry, or, God forbid, Bob Woodward didn't also write a book on the favorable aspects of the Trump presidency.

[John Camp]

Let's try a nice collegial question, with no arguments or details or wishful thinking.

Who do you think will be sworn in as President on Jan. 21?

Me: Biden

[Manoli]

Let's try a nice collegial question, with no arguments or details or wishful thinking.
Who do you think will be sworn in as President on Jan. 21?

Good suggestion, I’ve added a poll, open for 3 days
You’ll need to vote again, though.

[faberryman]

Good suggestion, I’ve added a poll, open for 3 days
You’ll need to vote again, though.

Oh for God's sake. Now if the poll doesn't go Trump's way, we are going to have to listen to people whine about the fairness of the question.

[Chris Kern]

Good suggestion, I’ve added a poll, open for 3 days

However before you record your guess, remember that we don't have national elections in the United States.  All elections, even for federal offices such as president and vice president, and for members of the national Senate and the House of Representatives, are conducted by the states.  And those who will serve as president and vice president are, uniquely, decided by state-by-state assignment of "electoral votes" a mechanism, roughly based on proportional representation, by which the states select among the competing candidates after the election has been conducted based on the votes cast by their respective residents.

Joe Biden is all but certain to win the popular vote, just as Hillary Clinton did in 2016.  Based on the publicly available survey data, he probably will win the electoral vote as well, but I wouldn't count Trump out yet.  An important factor is likely to be voter "turnout"―the ability of the two candidates, and the parties and interest groups supporting them, to persuade their supporters actually to vote.  High turnout probably works to the advantage of Democratic Party candidates, but the Democrats historically have had difficulty getting certain demographic groups that tend to favor them to vote, particularly young people.  And a number of states with Republican-controlled governments have been engaged in extraordinary efforts, most of them presumptively legal, to depress voter turnout.

And, again, the national vote totals won't determine the outcome; the state elections will.  For those inclined to stay up all night (here in North America) or get up very early (on the other side of the Atlantic)―those of you Down Under should have it relatively easy―I would recommend watching two states: Florida and Texas.  Both start counting early votes (such as mail-in ballots) before election day and both are therefore likely to be able to report their results ahead of many of the other so-called "battleground" states.

If Trump loses one of them, he still arguably could assemble a winning electoral vote, but it's unlikely.  If he should lose both, it's all but impossible to imagine any way he could be re-elected.  The current survey data indicate Biden and Trump are very close in both states, with Biden having a probable advantage in Florida and Trump in Texas.  I'm still skeptical about Biden's chances of prevailing in the latter, but the polls suggest it is possible and it's no coincidence that Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire former Democratic candidate, has decided to invest significant advertising money to defeat Trump in both states.  (Bloomberg also decided at the last minute to invest in Ohio, another state that would normally be considered a certain winner for the Republican and a "must-win" state for Trump.)

So record your guess in the poll above, if you like, but keep in mind that while Trump started and is ending his term in office with unusually low national popularity, state-by-state support is what will actually determine the outcome.