Poll

Who do you think will be sworn in as President on Jan. 21?

Biden
- 14 (66.7%)
Trump
- 7 (33.3%)

Total Members Voted: 21

Voting closed: November 02, 2020, 06:25:59 pm


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Author Topic: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)  (Read 94478 times)

Manoli

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The Economist is publishing its first-ever statistical forecast of an American presidential election. Developed with the assistance of Andrew Gelman and Merlin Heidemanns, political scientists at Columbia University, our model calculates Joe Bidenís and Donald Trumpís probabilities of winning each individual state and the election overall. Its projections will be updated every day at

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president.

Article detailing the methodology
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/how-this-works

Quote
We are publishing the source code for what we believe to be the most innovative section of the model. All readers are welcome to download it, explore how it works, tweak its parameters and run it themselves. (requires wading wading through a script in the R and Stan programming languages).

Note:
This topic is started pursuant to:
< Free-flowing political discussions may take place elsewhere and may cover any, or indeed all, topics >
https://forum.luminous-landscape.com/index.php?topic=134505.msg1176190#msg1176190
« Last Edit: June 24, 2020, 12:38:56 pm by Manoli »
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LesPalenik

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #1 on: June 24, 2020, 03:20:59 am »

All models are relatively static. In a steady environment, they can be quite accurate.
However, a lot of things could happen between now and November, and any of these things could drastically change the final outcome.
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Manoli

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #2 on: June 24, 2020, 03:33:47 am »

All models are relatively static. In a steady environment, they can be quite accurate.
However, a lot of things could happen between now and November, and any of these things could drastically change the final outcome

" Our model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict a range of outcomes ..."

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president.

Please read < How The Economist presidential forecast works > before posting.
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/how-this-works
« Last Edit: June 24, 2020, 01:24:26 pm by Manoli »
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #3 on: June 24, 2020, 07:00:15 am »

... Our model is updated every day... 

Please read the links attentively prior to posting.

So?

It only means that we shouldn't pay attention to today's polls, as tomorrow it will be different. And even one day before the election, it may or may not be any wiser. Remember the 98% chance of Hillary winning, the night before the election?

P.S. Not a good idea to start a thread with condescension.

Alan Klein

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #4 on: June 24, 2020, 09:56:18 am »

Why would we want to follow one poll when there are dozens to choose from?  For example, Real Clear Politics summarizes and averages them out.  That's a better, less prejudiced  source for polls than the one you favor.  Also, The Economist is a left-leaning British outlet who doesn't like Trump.  You ought to follow more neutral and independent polling sources. 
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

hogloff

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #5 on: June 24, 2020, 10:22:55 am »

Why would we want to follow one poll when there are dozens to choose from?  For example, Real Clear Politics summarizes and averages them out.  That's a better, less prejudiced  source for polls than the one you favor.  Also, The Economist is a left-leaning British outlet who doesn't like Trump.  You ought to follow more neutral and independent polling sources. 
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

It's not a poll. It uses a bunch of different polls along with the economic data to predict the outcomes. Did you read the article?
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James Clark

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #6 on: June 24, 2020, 11:14:29 am »



Noe:
This topic is started pursuant to:
< Free-flowing political discussions may take place elsewhere and may cover any, or indeed all, topics >
https://forum.luminous-landscape.com/index.php?topic=134505.msg1176190#msg1176190

Is this caveat really necessary?  If you had bothered to read the relevant post at the appropriate time it should have been crystal clear this would be fine, or so I'm pointedly informed ;)
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Jeremy Roussak

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2020, 01:33:32 pm »

Is this caveat really necessary?  If you had bothered to read the relevant post at the appropriate time it should have been crystal clear this would be fine, or so I'm pointedly informed ;)

It's a justification, not a caveat. But you're quite right.

Jeremy
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Alan Klein

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #8 on: June 24, 2020, 01:40:48 pm »

It's not a poll. It uses a bunch of different polls along with the economic data to predict the outcomes. Did you read the article?
Regardless of their technique, it's a single algorithm from a left leaning British organization.  What is their track record of predictions?  After all this is a new algorithm.  Why should we believe their results?

James Clark

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #9 on: June 24, 2020, 01:43:24 pm »

It's a justification, not a caveat. But you're quite right.

Jeremy

No, it's a caveat:

Definition:
A warning or proviso of specific stipulations, conditions, or limitations.. This is, in fact, a proviso of specific conditions and/or limitations related to the established rules of posting here.


It needs no justification, as you believe you had previously made clear.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2020, 03:29:59 pm by James Clark »
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Jeremy Roussak

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #10 on: June 24, 2020, 05:22:21 pm »

No, it's a caveat:

Definition:
A warning or proviso of specific stipulations, conditions, or limitations.. This is, in fact, a proviso of specific conditions and/or limitations related to the established rules of posting here.
It needs no justification, as you believe you had previously made clear.

Without getting into too much detail, you're wrong. My post contained warnings. That part of Manoli's post which you quoted contained none; it merely referenced mine. I agree that this thread needs no justification, and Manoli none for starting it; but that doesn't alter the nature of his words, which constituted a justification.

I have a feeling that at some point I am going to have to explain what argumentum ad hominem means, since I get a strong indication that people are confusing its use with being insulting; but I'll leave that for another day.

Jeremy
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Peter McLennan

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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #12 on: June 24, 2020, 06:16:04 pm »

Some excellent examples here...

Excellent!? Rather like The Leftist Idiotís Guide to Ad Hominem. Leftist idiots managed to redefine yet another classical term to be about feelings and emotions.  ;D ;D ;D

TechTalk

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #13 on: June 24, 2020, 06:21:26 pm »

Excellent!? Rather like The Leftist Idiotís Guide to Ad Hominem. Leftist idiots managed to redefine yet another classical term to be about feelings and emotions.  ;D ;D ;D

Was this meant as an observation or an example of an Ad Hominem attack? If the latter, it's pretty much perfect!
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James Clark

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #14 on: June 24, 2020, 06:46:54 pm »

Hey Manoli - my apologies for derailing your thread right off the bat :(

Let's get back to it. 
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hogloff

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #15 on: June 24, 2020, 08:15:12 pm »

Regardless of their technique, it's a single algorithm from a left leaning British organization.  What is their track record of predictions?  After all this is a new algorithm.  Why should we believe their results?

History shows you don't believe anything unless it lines up with your views. Believe in whatever floats your boat. Looking at any angle...Trump is not sitting pretty right now.
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Craig Lamson

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #16 on: June 24, 2020, 08:48:29 pm »

History shows you don't believe anything unless it lines up with your views. Believe in whatever floats your boat. Looking at any angle...Trump is not sitting pretty right now.

Poll says Hillary up big just  days before the 2016 election.  What are you gonna believe?

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/clinton-major-lead-trump-final-debate-poll-article-1.2841984
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hogloff

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #17 on: June 24, 2020, 08:57:54 pm »

Poll says Hillary up big just  days before the 2016 election.  What are you gonna believe?

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/clinton-major-lead-trump-final-debate-poll-article-1.2841984

Yep...and lightening can strike twice in the same place.
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LesPalenik

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #18 on: June 24, 2020, 09:06:30 pm »

Yep...and lightening can strike twice in the same place.
or when it comes to Democrats
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John Camp

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #19 on: June 24, 2020, 09:12:31 pm »

I sort of enjoyed the way that this went from a serious and fairly compelling original post, and then drove straight into the ditch.

The Economist doesn't consider itself to be left-leaning; it explicitly considers itself to be "radically centrist." I've been reading it for years, and think that's fairly accurate. As for not liking Trump, well, who does, really? The guy is undoubtedly the biggest asshole ever to inhabit the American presidency, which makes him high up in the standings for biggest asshole in the universe. But because the obsequious, ass-kissing Republican Senate follows him around like a bunch of frightened puppy dogs doesn't mean they like him, they're simply afraid of being kicked.

If the Economist thought one ranking was enough, then they obviously wouldn't have made provisions to alter this day-any-day through the campaign. I just wished they'd waited until, say, October to do this, because it's going to get tedious.

 
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