Poll

Who do you think will be sworn in as President on Jan. 21?

Biden
- 14 (66.7%)
Trump
- 7 (33.3%)

Total Members Voted: 21

Voting closed: November 02, 2020, 06:25:59 pm


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Author Topic: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)  (Read 110353 times)

faberryman

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #1700 on: September 25, 2020, 06:52:40 pm »

The Florida attorney general is looking into whether Bloomberg paying off felons' fines and court costs so they can vote is voter fraud.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/517877-florida-attorney-general-scrutinizing-bloomberg-paying-fines-for-felons

I wonder if she is also going to look into Trump sending seniors $200 debit cards as voter fraud as well?

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/24/trump-drug-coupons-seniors-421511
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Manoli

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #1701 on: September 25, 2020, 07:13:27 pm »

I like how some of the circles have the state's abbreviation and others don't. Are we more likely to know the states without abbreviations?

It’s a screenshot from The Economist link (scroll down the page) on the first post of this thread. Clicking on any of the circles gives you details, which I’m guessing have been omitted for cleaner visuals.

For the non-Americans on this thread gives a clearer picture of where we’re at (not so different from 2016)  and, guessing that Texas will stay Republican, the four key states that will in all probability decide the election are Florida, North Carolina, Georgia and Ohio.

« Last Edit: September 25, 2020, 07:18:50 pm by Manoli »
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degrub

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #1702 on: September 25, 2020, 07:22:06 pm »

Texas may be a surprise.
We are working on it.
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Chris Kern

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #1703 on: September 25, 2020, 07:30:51 pm »

. . . guessing that Texas will stay Republican, the 4 key states that’ll decide the election are Florida, North Carolina, Georgia and Ohio.

I would add Arizona and Iowa to that list, based on the recent surveys: Biden has a reasonable chance of winning Arizona and at least a shot at picking up Iowa.  Pennsylvania could also be in play, depending on what proportion of blacks and young people actually vote: if their turnout is low, I suspect Trump still has a chance of taking that state.

Texas may be a surprise.
We are working on it.

I'm skeptical, but if Trump were to lose Texas, I have difficulty seeing how he could still assemble an electoral majority.

John Camp

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #1704 on: September 25, 2020, 09:30:54 pm »

It’s a screenshot from The Economist link (scroll down the page) on the first post of this thread. Clicking on any of the circles gives you details, which I’m guessing have been omitted for cleaner visuals.

For the non-Americans on this thread gives a clearer picture of where we’re at (not so different from 2016)  and, guessing that Texas will stay Republican, the four key states that will in all probability decide the election are Florida, North Carolina, Georgia and Ohio.

I disagree. Trump won all those states in 2016, yet barely squeaked in by also winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by very narrow margins. If those three sites switch (and Biden is leading in all three) Biden will win, even if Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, Georgia and Ohio as he did in 2016.
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PeterAit

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #1705 on: September 26, 2020, 12:34:47 pm »

For all you Trumpinskis who ignored my recent post about the 200+ Admirals and Generals endorsing Biden and condemning Trump, here's somethig else to ignore.

https://www.newsweek.com/former-intelligence-agency-director-who-briefed-trump-says-he-endangers-nations-national-security-1534388

BTW, changing your mind in the face of overwhelming evidence is a sign of intelligence (that's how science works, for example). Not doing so is a sign of ... you know.
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faberryman

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #1706 on: September 27, 2020, 03:27:07 pm »

It is a sad day for a lot of people. It appears someone has done the math, and if you travel back in time to prevent Donald Trump from being elected, you won't be successful. At least that explains why all those episodes of The Time Tunnel turned out the way they did.

https://www.sciencealert.com/a-physicist-has-come-up-with-the-maths-to-make-time-travel-plausible

 
« Last Edit: September 27, 2020, 03:46:46 pm by faberryman »
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #1707 on: September 27, 2020, 06:07:07 pm »

Those who are still convinced that Donald Trump is a great businessman may want to follow the New York Times series that just began about an hour ago.  The paper has received financial and tax records from 2000 through 2017.  Several years he paid ZERO Federal income tax and in 2016 and 2017 paid $750 each year; yes there are no zeros missing from those numbers.  No wonder he didn't want to release his tax returns.  The Times will be publish more on this during the next several weeks.  The first dandy installment is here:  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/27/us/donald-trump-taxes.html  You can see all the wonderful investments that are losing money like crazy.  "For all of its Trumpworld allure, his Washington hotel, opened in 2016, has not fared much better. Its tax records show losses through 2018 of $55.5 million." 

It's doubtful that this will change the minds of his supporters but it may finally force him to disclose his tax returns or let this stand as the record.
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faberryman

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #1708 on: September 27, 2020, 06:35:29 pm »

It's doubtful that this will change the minds of his supporters but it may finally force him to disclose his tax returns or let this stand as the record.
You would think his supporters would resent it, but they think it is a sign of his business acumen.
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John Camp

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #1709 on: September 27, 2020, 07:23:29 pm »

Those who are still convinced that Donald Trump is a great businessman may want to follow the New York Times series that just began about an hour ago.  The paper has received financial and tax records from 2000 through 2017.  Several years he paid ZERO Federal income tax and in 2016 and 2017 paid $750 each year; yes there are no zeros missing from those numbers.  No wonder he didn't want to release his tax returns.  The Times will be publish more on this during the next several weeks.  The first dandy installment is here:  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/27/us/donald-trump-taxes.html  You can see all the wonderful investments that are losing money like crazy.  "For all of its Trumpworld allure, his Washington hotel, opened in 2016, has not fared much better. Its tax records show losses through 2018 of $55.5 million." 



Bwwwwahahahahaha.
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Chris Kern

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #1710 on: September 27, 2020, 07:32:03 pm »

Those who are still convinced that Donald Trump is a great businessman may want to follow the New York Times series that just began about an hour ago.

From the first installment in the Times series based on Trump's federal income tax returns:

Quote
The picture that perhaps emerges most starkly from the mountain of figures and tax schedules prepared by Mr. Trump’s accountants is of a businessman-president in a tightening financial vise.

Most of Mr. Trump’s core enterprises — from his constellation of golf courses to his conservative-magnet hotel in Washington — report losing millions, if not tens of millions, of dollars year after year.

His revenue from “The Apprentice” and from licensing deals is drying up, and several years ago he sold nearly all the stocks that now might have helped him plug holes in his struggling properties.

The tax audit looms.

And within the next four years, more than $300 million in loans — obligations for which he is personally responsible — will come due.

Against that backdrop, the records go much further toward revealing the actual and potential conflicts of interest created by Mr. Trump’s refusal to divest himself of his business interests while in the White House. His properties have become bazaars for collecting money directly from lobbyists, foreign officials and others seeking face time, access or favor; the records for the first time put precise dollar figures on those transactions.

At the Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Fla., a flood of new members starting in 2015 allowed him to pocket an additional $5 million a year from the business. At his Doral golf resort near Miami, the roofing materials manufacturer GAF spent at least $1.5 million in 2018 even as its industry was lobbying the Trump administration to roll back “egregious” federal regulations. In 2017, the Billy Graham Evangelistic Association paid at least $397,602 to the Washington hotel, where the group held at least one event during its four-day World Summit in Defense of Persecuted Christians.

The Times was also able to take the fullest measure to date of the president’s income from overseas, where he holds ultimate sway over American diplomacy. When he took office, Mr. Trump said he would pursue no new foreign deals as president. Even so, in his first two years in the White House, his revenue from abroad totaled $73 million. And while much of that money was from his golf properties in Scotland and Ireland, some came from licensing deals in countries with authoritarian-leaning leaders or thorny geopolitics — for example, $3 million from the Philippines, $2.3 million from India and $1 million from Turkey.

The newspaper says there will be more stories about Trump's taxes "in the coming weeks" (presumably before the election).

In other words, Many Happy Returns.

Craig Lamson

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #1711 on: September 27, 2020, 08:21:34 pm »

You would think his supporters would resent it, but they think it is a sign of his business acumen.

Having read the article, it appears that Trump and his accountants are masters at working the tax code.

If it’s illegal the IRS can deal with it, but it seems even they have not done that in all of these years.

Trump has often said being President costs him money and it’s no secret bookings to many of his properties fell when lefties decided to switch from loving him to hating him. 

But a smart person once said, why would I want to see the tax returns for a billionaire who became President and works for free instead of a politician who was elected to office and then made millions.

To each his own. 
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Ray

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #1712 on: September 27, 2020, 09:33:08 pm »

Having read the article, it appears that Trump and his accountants are masters at working the tax code.

If it’s illegal the IRS can deal with it, but it seems even they have not done that in all of these years.

Trump has often said being President costs him money and it’s no secret bookings to many of his properties fell when lefties decided to switch from loving him to hating him. 

But a smart person once said, why would I want to see the tax returns for a billionaire who became President and works for free instead of a politician who was elected to office and then made millions.

To each his own.

Good point! We should also bear in mind that even though Trump might have paid no taxes, in his own name, because of all the tax-deductible costs associated with his investments, the numerous employees in his various businesses probably would have paid tax. Without the Trump enterprises, those jobs would not exist and the government would not receive the tax revenue.
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TechTalk

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #1713 on: September 27, 2020, 09:48:41 pm »

Fraud is something prosecutors can deal with when Trump is no longer able to hide behind his current office.

Putin's Russia did not create the divisions in the US, or distrust in democracy and institutions of government, or fear of each other. What Russia has done is to successfully exploit and amplify the existing division, distrust, and fear that already existed. They continue to do so.

Trump has also successfully exploited and amplified the existing division, distrust, and fear in the nation. He continues to do so. For that, the voters can deal with it by voting him out.

Trump is neither a stable genius or a great businessman. His only talents are as a conman and a bully. The political chaos he created worked for him in a relatively stable 2016, barely. It remains to be seen if that will work in an already chaotic 2020.
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TechTalk

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #1714 on: September 27, 2020, 10:29:46 pm »

Former Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale hospitalized after he was armed and threatening to harm himself, Fort Lauderdale police say

Quote
Former Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale has reportedly been hospitalized after a tense exchange with police in which he was armed, barricaded himself in his home and threatened to harm himself, the South Florida Sun-Sentinel reports.

The police, called by his wife, went to the house in the Seven Isles community, an affluent area in which houses have access to the water. They made contact, “developed a rapport” and negotiated his exit from the house, the police said in a statement. He was taken to Broward Health Medical Center under the Baker Act, which provides for temporary involuntary commitment.

https://thehill.com/former-trump-campaign-manager-brad-parscale-hospitalized-after-threatening

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/broward/fort-lauderdale/fl-ne-brad-parscale-incident-fort-lauderdale-20200928

Brad Parscale was campaign manager until a couple of months ago. Politics aside, let's hope that both he and Michael Caputo get the help they need to recover from their current health problems.
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #1715 on: September 27, 2020, 10:32:38 pm »

I don't think the tax disclosures will harm him politically. If anything, people will read the articles to find out how he did it because they don't want to pay taxes either. It's aspirational info.

Besides, is it any worse than Amazon or Apple or any number of other entities?

I don't think it's a much different situation than him throwing paper towels at Puerto Ricans. The number of people who are offended by the behaviour may be outnumbered by the number of people who cheer him on.

Has Michael Moore made any predictions about the election yet? He called it right last time.
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #1716 on: September 27, 2020, 10:36:26 pm »

...  the numerous employees in his various businesses probably would have paid tax. Without the Trump enterprises, those jobs would not exist and the government would not receive the tax revenue.

Or, they would have gotten other jobs. It's not a zero-sum game.

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Ray

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #1717 on: September 28, 2020, 05:08:46 am »

Or, they would have gotten other jobs. It's not a zero-sum game.

I don't think there has ever been zero unemployment in the USA. When a company goes broke, the employees will usually search for another job of course. However, there is usually a number of people applying for any particular job and only one of them is chosen.

The greater the number of companies that go broke, the higher the unemployment rate and the lower the tax revenue, unless the government is able to raise the tax rates without causing more companies to go broke and without reducing the incentive for new companies to be established.

If Trump has avoided paying taxes legally, then that suggests he has business acumen. If he has done it illegally, and that is revealed, then he's in trouble.
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faberryman

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #1718 on: September 28, 2020, 07:49:06 am »

If Trump has avoided paying taxes legally, then that suggests he has business acumen. If he has done it illegally, and that is revealed, then he's in trouble.
They'll never prove legality or illegality in a month, so it will turn on appearance of impropriety. I doubt Trump supporters will care one way or another. So the question is whether it will create a tipping point among the undecided.

There exists a slim possibility that some of his followers will abandon him if he continues to deny things and say its fake news like he only paid $750 in federal income tax in 2016 if the NYT releases documents that prove that it is true. Nah, that's only wishful thinking. They don't care whether he lies of not. For some reason, it is part of his allure.

And by the way, it has nothing to do with business acumen and everything to do with expensive tax attorneys and accountants. He is not sitting in his office pouring over the tax code and thinking this stuff up himself.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2020, 08:09:15 am by faberryman »
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Craig Lamson

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #1719 on: September 28, 2020, 08:11:23 am »

They'll never prove legality or illegality in a month, so it will turn on appearance of impropriety. I doubt Trump supporters will care one way or another. So the question is whether it will create a tipping point among the undecided.

There exists a slim possibility that some of his followers will abandon him if he continues to deny things and say its fake news like he only paid $750 in federal income tax in 2016 if the NYT releases documents that prove that it is true. Nah, that's only wishful thinking. They don't care whether he lies of not. For some reason, it is part of his allure.

And by the way, it has nothing to do with business acumen and everything to do with expensive tax attorneys and accountants. He is not sitting in his office pouring over the tax code and thinking this stuff up himself.

You have to read to well in the the yellow news of the NYT to find the real truth...

Mr. Trump was periodically required to pay a parallel income tax called the alternative minimum tax, created as a tripwire to prevent wealthy people from using huge deductions, including business losses, to entirely wipe out their tax liabilities.

Mr. Trump paid alternative minimum tax in seven years between 2000 and 2017 — a total of $24.3 million, excluding refunds he received after filing. For 2015, he paid $641,931, his first payment of any federal income tax since 2010.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2020, 08:14:34 am by Craig Lamson »
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