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Author Topic: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political  (Read 208705 times)

armand

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4860 on: May 22, 2020, 01:13:16 pm »

Lockdowns failed to alter the course of pandemic

infection rates had fallen since lockdowns were eased

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8347635/Lockdowns-failed-alter-course-pandemic-JP-Morgan-study-claims.html?fbclid=IwAR3zFbp3Mk3pVsRg5t4dxDIxoq7zy4_get9CiEt45BPUtiYYU3Vw-GM_plw

And yet I posted something of the contrary in the past:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/lockdown-of-recovering-italian-town-shows-effectiveness-of-early-action-11584391837
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/08/coronavirus-italy-lombardy-province-at-centre-of-outbreak-offers-glimmer-of-hope


I think it's very difficult to interpret these studies unless you know what data they used, who is actually doing the study (for potential bias), and so forth. It's quite possible there are things not entirely caught in these, such as actual people movement (as in how effective it was). Michigan supposedly has been under lockdown but in reality I saw a lot of people movement, just less in the early morning when I go to work.

JoeKitchen

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4861 on: May 22, 2020, 01:19:16 pm »

I said many times and posted what I had to, you just post too much that you lose track on who's who. I'm not here to educate you and keep reposting myself just so it can sink in. I'm a critical care physician (which I said several times before but then again, you forget what's being said the moment you turn the page) and it took me many years to get here that your few hours of google will not compensate, not that this will stop you claiming you know better even critical care medicine concepts.
Again, if you cannot recall what was said few pages ago even, why would I even bother? Because I won't. I gave you all the chances but you keep going around the bush, coming with some black and white arguments, then you imagine things where they aren't just to say that you are right. This doesn't even reach high school level of debate. There is evidence and there is evidence; there is enough paranoia out there that you can find articles to claim anything you want. I caught you multiple times using arguments and concepts that you don't fully grasp but yet you keep arguing. Things are much more complex than you want them to be, I don't have a black and white opinion and I adjust based on good evidence, or educated approach when the evidence is not yet available, not on what I want to believe.
I can't believe I'm letting myself dragged in this discussion, which isn't really a discussion, it has never been. Not too mention you keep claiming I said that and that and when I say prove it, crickets.

It's amazing you keep arguing against so many people who actually do this for a living and yet you don't see a problem with that. There is no doubt crossing your mind that maybe, just maybe you don't have all the data and things are not as simple as you think they are. You have less doubts than they have.
You keep claiming you are the second Messiah (or half, the other is Slobodan). You are in complete delusion that you are right and nothing will change that.

Nope, no doubt.  Under 50, all data says you’ll be as fine as catching flu.  The majority either wont know they have it or will have mild symptoms. 

Over 60, you have to worry.

As a critical care physician you're probably missing the forest for the trees.  You're seeing the worse while ignoring the data that says 99.93% of people under 50 will be fine with many not even knowing they had it. 

This thing is no big deal for most of the population and we know who it is a big deal for. 

Open it up and protect the vulnerable. 
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 01:33:24 pm by JoeKitchen »
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Craig Lamson

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4862 on: May 22, 2020, 01:26:56 pm »

Meanwhile, I am now scheduling a multi-day shoot of a 1,000,000 sqf facility in NYC proper for next month. 

Have fun staying inside.

I have to wonder what the commercial real estate will do in the coming months and years and how it might effect folks like you.  Just read that lease payments from a whole bunch of firms, large and small have beeen missed in the last two months in NYC.  Many firms in no cash danger are simply taking a holiday on payments thinking they may dump the big office space and go with the work at home model going forward with a much smaller space for client facing needs..  Same thing is happening in residential.   Not sure how this plays out in the end but you better get what you can, while you can.
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kers

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4863 on: May 22, 2020, 01:27:20 pm »

Lockdowns failed to alter the course of pandemic

infection rates had fallen since lockdowns were eased

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8347635/Lockdowns-failed-alter-course-pandemic-JP-Morgan-study-claims.html?fbclid=IwAR3zFbp3Mk3pVsRg5t4dxDIxoq7zy4_get9CiEt45BPUtiYYU3Vw-GM_plw

JP morgan is not hit by the virus, but is hit by the economy. They are not experts in virusses and are biased in their opinion.
That infection rates will be lowered after the lockdowns is the intention of all countries.; the lockdown has done its job and then the lockdown can be safely lifted.
However, we still have to find out in the coming month if that is really the case, since it takes some weeks to be sure that not more people get infected. Most lockdowns just got lifted partially the last week or next week in a lot of countries.
So that diagram is based on data that does not exist yet.
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John Camp

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4864 on: May 22, 2020, 01:36:41 pm »

Oh but it is. 

Like I said, 0.07% infection fatality rate for those under 50.  (Below are case fatality rates by age updated yesterday morning.) 

It is you who charged the windmills, not me.  I, and Slobo, are the ones who kept on saying this is nothing but a cold for all but the most vulnerable.  The data largely proves us right.

You do know that an 0.07 infection rate makes it more than seven times as deadly as the flu's overall rate? And most of flu deaths come for the elderly. For those under 50, that probably translates into a death rate 20 or 30 or 40 times the death rate of flu, or even worse (few people under 50 die from the flu, though there are always some.)
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JoeKitchen

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4865 on: May 22, 2020, 01:50:36 pm »

You do know that an 0.07 infection rate makes it more than seven times as deadly as the flu's overall rate? And most of flu deaths come for the elderly. For those under 50, that probably translates into a death rate 20 or 30 or 40 times the death rate of flu, or even worse (few people under 50 die from the flu, though there are always some.)

Yes, I am aware of that.  If the death rate was 1%, I would be more hesitant to leave my home.  But  0.07%, no. 

The option I see, for myself, is the following.  There are 10,000 marbles in a bag and 7 of them are black, the rest white.  Your options are: (1) reach in and grab a marble.  If it is white, you're fine, if black you die instantly.  Or (2) don't reach in but you need to stay locked up and 3 years of your income will be taken away. 

I choose to roll the bones on option 1.  For people under 25, only 2 of those 10,000 are black.  What do you think most 25 year olds will do. 

Quality of life matters John.  Your generation may have been bigger then the GenXers, allowing you to push them around, especially in business, but the millennials are bigger then yours, so you cant hold this back, no matter how hard you try.

You had your fun in the sun and I get that at your age, you are more apprehensive, but you have a house that is (probably) fully paid for and a large portfolio to pull cash from.  I don't have the luxury of 50+ years in the work forced to have built the amount of wealth you have yet.  So, with a significantly lower threat of death (not just with this virus, but anything), I have different priorities.  If you dont like it, stay inside. 

To add to your point, I did read this week data is show for those under 25, the flu is actually more deadly.  For 25 to 55, C-19 is more deadly, but only slightly so.  For those 55 to 75, it is significantly more deadly.  For those over 75, only about twice as deadly, a sudden drop more then likely due to how susceptible those over 75 are to anything.  This did not come from a scientific source, just independent data analysis, so I am hesitant to post it. 

This is looking more and more like so many people decided to bring us to war with windmills. 
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 01:59:42 pm by JoeKitchen »
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JoeKitchen

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4866 on: May 22, 2020, 01:57:30 pm »

I have to wonder what the commercial real estate will do in the coming months and years and how it might effect folks like you.  Just read that lease payments from a whole bunch of firms, large and small have beeen missed in the last two months in NYC.  Many firms in no cash danger are simply taking a holiday on payments thinking they may dump the big office space and go with the work at home model going forward with a much smaller space for client facing needs..  Same thing is happening in residential.   Not sure how this plays out in the end but you better get what you can, while you can.

I have to wonder that too. 

Prior to this breaking out, I was asked to write a proposal for a rather large insurance office, a full two day shoot.  The project is simply awesome and would have added to my portfolio. 

I reached out to the architect two weeks ago, and I have not heard anything back.  I have to wonder, if this office even viable anymore?  Will the insurance agency actually use, even though it is pretty much finished now? 

If I was an architect, would it even be worth it to pay the money to document and market this project if it may now be obsolete? 

Insofar as NYC, I am certain they are screwed. 
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 02:02:03 pm by JoeKitchen »
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faberryman

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4867 on: May 22, 2020, 02:00:18 pm »

The option I see, for myself, is the following.  There are 10,000 marbles in a bag and 7 of them are black, the rest white.  Your options are: (1) reach in and grab a marble.  If it is white, you're fine, if black you die instantly.  Or (2) don't reach in but you need to stay locked up and 3 years of your income will be taken away. 
Did someone tell you we would be on lockdown for three years?
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JoeKitchen

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4868 on: May 22, 2020, 02:02:43 pm »

Did someone tell you we would be on lockdown for three years?

The economic fall out from this lock down could last that long, if not longer.  That is the point I was making; notice I purposely made sure the "3" was not associated with "lock down" by placing it after "lock down" was mentioned in the sentence.  3 years of collective income down the drain.

Not to mention, those who are for keeping the lockdown have not talked about any definitive end dates.  I just keep on hearing we cant open up until we have a vaccine, which could certainly take that long if not longer. 
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 02:07:11 pm by JoeKitchen »
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JoeKitchen

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4869 on: May 22, 2020, 02:12:05 pm »

I've always like AOC.  She's dumb enough to say the quiet part out loud, making it easier to attack. 

Now, Biden has become senile enough to also say the quiet part out loud. 

Biden says 'you ain't black' if torn between him and Trump, in dustup with Charlamagne tha God

I dont know even what to say at this.
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faberryman

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4870 on: May 22, 2020, 02:17:08 pm »

Not to mention, those who are for keeping the lockdown have not talked about any definitive end dates.  I just keep on hearing we cant open up until we have a vaccine, which could certainly take that long if not longer.
Who are you hearing saying we need to stay locked down until we have a vaccine? I thought all states were now open to some extent, and were opening further in a phased way. NYC is the exception.
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JoeKitchen

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4871 on: May 22, 2020, 02:25:57 pm »

Who are you hearing saying we need to stay locked down until we have a vaccine? I thought all states were now open to some extent, and were opening further in a phased way. NYC is the exception.

LA is talking about that.  My mayor is saying we cant go to the "green stage" without a vaccine and is trying to make masks permanent.

But the thing is, younger people are just not listening anymore, not even in NYC.  I am hearing about block parties, stoop keggers and underground bars opening up.  This thing is over and being lead from the ground up.

In my state, the governor is not enforcing his orders because he knows it is a lose lose to arrest business owners when letting real criminals out of jail.  He is asking people use the honor system in following the edicts.  But the tide is breaking and stores are opening. 

The governors in blue states are only adjusting now because they know they are losing.  My state house is controlled by the republicans, and they have put forth many bills to change the lockdown.  Wolf vetos them, and then that night or the next morning adjust his edicts to essentially match what was in the bills.  Counties are defying the orders, they tell Wolf this, and then he promptly adjusts that county to a stage of reopening earlier then what he had listed for them. 

It's a house of cards that is crumbling. 
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4872 on: May 22, 2020, 02:33:22 pm »

... I think it's very difficult to interpret these studies unless you know what data they used, who is actually doing the study (for potential bias), and so forth...

That we can agree on.

faberryman

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4873 on: May 22, 2020, 03:26:39 pm »

I have seen many testimonials from the worldover of people who have recovered from this. They talk about feeling like they were hit by a truck; even younger than 50 or 40. Or 30 or 20... many who have recovered will have permanent lung damage, at least.

Far from being "like a flu", but of course you are free to believe whom you like to believe.
I think someone posted a few pages back that if you had been hospitalized with COVID-19 you were ineligible to join the armed forces, so someone in government must think having COVID-19 permanently impairs you in some way.
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4874 on: May 22, 2020, 04:02:50 pm »

For those who read French or can use Google translate:

https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2020/05/22/l-economie-suedoise-en-berne-malgre-l-absence-de-confinement_6040412_3234.html

The article compares Sweden and Denmark and concludes that the economic impact of the pandemic as of today is similar.

- Sweden: no mandatory confinement, 3600 death for 10 million inhabitants
- Denmark: mandatory confinement, 600 deaths for 5 million people

The analysis? The cause of economic impact is the pandemic itself, not the lockdown because people are afraid of the virus regardless of the lockdown and this impacts their consumption habits.

The lesson? Acting early to prevent the spread of the disease and continuing to act against it are the only solution to prevent an economic meltdown. Closing late and reopening early are the economy killers, not the lockdown.

I don’t expect our usual Trump fans to like this since it debunks both myths about Sweden at once...

In other news today the Chloriquine was found in a study covering 96,000 patients worldwide to overall increase death rate, except perhaps when combined with another drug in controlled conditions when it may just not make any difference.

Cheers,
Bernard
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 07:34:37 pm by BernardLanguillier »
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faberryman

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4875 on: May 22, 2020, 04:03:35 pm »

It's a house of cards that is crumbling.
Yes, in four planned phases.

Dining in restaurants at full capacity begins here on Monday. Very low probability I'll be dining out any time soon.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 04:48:56 pm by faberryman »
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JoeKitchen

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4876 on: May 22, 2020, 05:28:55 pm »

Yes, in four planned phases.

Dining in restaurants at full capacity begins here on Monday. Very low probability I'll be dining out any time soon.

Where?  We may take a road trip. 

Thinking about going to Cleveland to visit Great Lakes Brweing and Mitchell’s ice cream.
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faberryman

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4877 on: May 22, 2020, 05:52:03 pm »

Where?  We may take a road trip.  Thinking about going to Cleveland to visit Great Lakes Brweing and Mitchell’s ice cream.

Here is a state by state breakdown.

https://www.usatoday.com/storytelling/coronavirus-reopening-america-map/

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Alan Klein

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4878 on: May 22, 2020, 06:20:47 pm »

I stopped by a local National Park:  Monmouth Battlefield.  And the gate was open.  So I drove in and shot 5 large format pictures.  Great to get out.  Meanwhile, across the highway, the garden shop was packed with people loading up on spring flowers et al.  There was a lot of traffic on the roads, the most I've seen in 8 weeks. I don;t understand why people here are still arguing over when people should have shut down.  I realize you're trying to make political points.  But, we're way passed that point.  All 50 states have started to open up to get their economies going again.   Let's see what happens.   Alaska has opened up with no restrictions.  Of course, your neighbor there lives 50 miles away or is a grizzly, but still.

Alan Klein

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4879 on: May 22, 2020, 06:25:17 pm »

I've always like AOC.  She's dumb enough to say the quiet part out loud, making it easier to attack. 

Now, Biden has become senile enough to also say the quiet part out loud. 

Biden says 'you ain't black' if torn between him and Trump, in dustup with Charlamagne tha God

I dont know even what to say at this.
He's playing the race card like all Democrats and taking the black voter for granted that they'll automatically vote for him.  We all know that's the way democrats think and operate.  But they're not suppose to admit it.  "Plugs" Biden just did.  Dummy. 
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