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Author Topic: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS  (Read 86401 times)

Chris Kern

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #2401 on: September 25, 2020, 04:59:32 pm »

Manoli

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #2402 on: September 25, 2020, 06:13:23 pm »

Link not working for me.

fixed (sort of), link at bottom of post.
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Jeremy Roussak

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #2403 on: September 27, 2020, 12:25:43 pm »

'Close to 100% accuracy': Helsinki airport uses sniffer dogs to detect Covid  (link below)

Interesting. The BBC quotes the woman as claiming near 100% sensitivity. That's only half of "accuracy"; specificity is enormously more important in a screening test and isn't specifically mentioned. Since the prevalence of the virus is likely to be low among the screened population, even a very high specificity will give the test a poor positive predictive value.

Jeremy

[edit: corrected spelling of "specificity" in first line]
« Last Edit: September 28, 2020, 01:33:41 pm by Jeremy Roussak »
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faberryman

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #2404 on: September 27, 2020, 01:22:17 pm »

Interesting. The BBC quotes the woman as claiming near 100% sensitivity. That's only half of "accuracy"; specify is enormously more important in a screening test and isn't specifically mentioned. Since the prevalence of the virus is likely to be low among the screened population, even a very high specificity will give the test a poor positive predictive value.
Sounds pretty neat, but is it really practical. How many dogs do we need to sniff 330 million people? Drive through dog sniffings? Which will occur first, herd immunity with help from vaccines or trained dogs?
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Peter McLennan

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #2405 on: September 27, 2020, 09:01:58 pm »

The very idea of "sniffer dogs" is suspect.  Aren't ALL dogs "sniffer" dogs? 
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faberryman

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #2406 on: September 29, 2020, 07:12:10 pm »

Okay, here is something I haven't considered before.

Up to Half a Million Sharks Could Be Killed to Produce Coronavirus Vaccine, Warn Conservationists

https://sputniknews.com/science/202009281080598544-up-to-half-a-million-sharks-could-be-killed-to-produce-coronavirus-vaccine-warn-conservationists/

Keep in mind the source.

Still, where are they going to get half a million sharks?
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #2407 on: September 29, 2020, 10:29:37 pm »


Still, where are they going to get half a million sharks?

(Law schools?)
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #2408 on: October 07, 2020, 05:02:42 pm »

A good explanation of the difference between the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR).

The difference between Case Fatality Rate and Infection Fatality Rate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAB43K2gtOk
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== If you do what you did, you'll get what you got. ==

armand

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #2409 on: October 12, 2020, 12:19:10 pm »

I saw there was some confusion here about how long a person infected with Covid-19 is still infectious.
Here are the CDC recommendations: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/duration-isolation.html

If some are too lazy to read here's the summary:
Quote
Duration of isolation and precautions
For most persons with COVID-19 illness, isolation and precautions can generally be discontinued 10 days after symptom onset1 and resolution of fever for at least 24 hours, without the use of fever-reducing medications, and with improvement of other symptoms.
A limited number of persons with severe illness may produce replication-competent virus beyond 10 days that may warrant extending duration of isolation and precautions for up to 20 days after symptom onset; consider consultation with infection control experts.
For persons who never develop symptoms, isolation and other precautions can be discontinued 10 days after the date of their first positive RT-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 RNA.

Currently in my hospital we give them 2 weeks in isolation for most cases, or 3 weeks for the severe cases (most that I see) even if they still are quite sick.


You can make your own math of when somebody got the first positive test/symptoms based on when they are declared noninfectious, if that's true of course  ;)

LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #2410 on: October 12, 2020, 08:59:39 pm »

Latest stats show that there are 20% more deaths in US than expected this year, 67% of them due to C19, the rest to other health issues, lockdowns and many unplanned disruptions.

Quote
During the coronavirus pandemic so far, there were 20 per cent more deaths than would normally be expected from March 1 through August 1 in the United States -- with COVID-19 officially accounting for about two-thirds of them, according to new research published Monday in the medical journal JAMA.

"Although total U.S. death counts are remarkably consistent from year to year, US deaths increased by 20 per cent during March-July 2020," according to the research, authored by Dr. Steven Woolf and colleagues at the Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine and the Yale School of Public Health. "COVID-19 was a documented cause of only 67 per cent of these excess deaths," the researchers wrote.

The researchers analyzed death data from the National Center for Health Statistics and the US Census Bureau. Overall, there were 1,336,561 deaths in the United States between March 1 and August 1, 2020, the study found -- marking a 20 per cent increase compared with what would normally be expected.

"Some people who never had the virus may have died because of disruptions caused by the pandemic," Woolf added. "These include people with acute emergencies, chronic diseases like diabetes that were not properly care for, or emotional crises that led to overdoses or suicides."

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/u-s-sees-20-per-cent-more-deaths-than-expected-this-year-most-due-to-covid-19-research-finds-1.5142198
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #2411 on: October 12, 2020, 09:45:36 pm »

I think some of those extra deaths were from the stress caused by discussing Covid 19 on social media like LuLa. :)

LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #2412 on: October 13, 2020, 12:09:03 am »

I think some of those extra deaths were from the stress caused by discussing Covid 19 on social media like LuLa. :)

And some heart attacks caused by watching Trump on TV.
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TechTalk

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #2413 on: October 13, 2020, 04:02:44 am »

One example of how easily this virus spreads when people are in close contact for extended periods of time. At a meat packing plant in Utah with 1,495 employees, 441 employees have been infected and one has died.

New report confirms 1 dead, 441 employees sick due to COVID-19 at JBS plant in Hyrum

https://www.abc4.com/news/new-report-confirms-1-dead-441-employees-sick-due-to-covid-19-at-jbs-plant-in-hyrum/

"A new report confirms one person is dead and 441 employees were infected after the COVID-19 outbreak at the JBS meat-packing plant in Hyrum. That new case count is nearly one hundred more people than what was originally reported."

"According to a report done by the Utah Occupational Safety and Health Division, or OSHA, as of June 16, one employee at JBS died due to the virus, the finalized number of infected employees is 441. There are 1,495 workers at this plant."

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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #2414 on: October 13, 2020, 08:21:54 am »

One example of how easily this virus spreads when people are in close contact for extended periods of time. At a meat packing plant in Utah with 1,495 employees, 441 employees have been infected and one has died.

New report confirms 1 dead, 441 employees sick due to COVID-19 at JBS plant in Hyrum

https://www.abc4.com/news/new-report-confirms-1-dead-441-employees-sick-due-to-covid-19-at-jbs-plant-in-hyrum/

"A new report confirms one person is dead and 441 employees were infected after the COVID-19 outbreak at the JBS meat-packing plant in Hyrum. That new case count is nearly one hundred more people than what was originally reported."

"According to a report done by the Utah Occupational Safety and Health Division, or OSHA, as of June 16, one employee at JBS died due to the virus, the finalized number of infected employees is 441. There are 1,495 workers at this plant."


What about the meat they touched that was frozen and sent to us?

armand

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #2415 on: October 13, 2020, 09:11:26 am »

What about the meat they touched that was frozen and sent to us?

Luckily for you you should not change your behavior, cook it well and wash your hands after you touch raw meat. That's how it have been since before Covid.

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #2416 on: October 13, 2020, 09:33:18 am »

Luckily for you you should not change your behavior, cook it well and wash your hands after you touch raw meat. That's how it have been since before Covid.
  With chicken I wash my hands and the counter with soap and water.  With meat, I might rinse them and keep cooking.  Depends.  The cutting board gets washed with soap and water.

faberryman

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #2417 on: October 13, 2020, 11:58:35 am »

Luckily for you you should not change your behavior, cook it well and wash your hands after you touch raw meat. That's how it have been since before Covid.

If you ever toured a meat packing plant, a little coronavirus on your meat would be the last thing you'd be worried about. For God's sake man, have you seen how that moocow that was coming down along the road became ground beef on a styrofoam tray? Yikes! I think I read that the poultry slaughtering machine in one swift move actually turns the carcass inside out. Holy ass over teacups, Batman! And what about Thanksgiving? Surely you remember that video of Sara Palin cutting the heads off live turkeys with that spinning blade contraption? I'll stick with the mashed potatoes thank you very much.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2020, 12:36:07 pm by faberryman »
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #2418 on: October 13, 2020, 12:14:53 pm »

If you ever toured a meat packing plant, a little coronavirus on your meat would be the last thing you'd be worried about. For God's sake man, have you seen how that moocow that was coming down along the road became ground beef on a styrofoam tray? Yikes! I think I read that the poultry slaughtering machine actually turns the carcass inside out. Holy moly!
Never tour the kitchen in the restaurant you're eating in. You really don't want to know.  :o

LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #2419 on: October 15, 2020, 02:25:48 pm »

Was sent a very informative video with Dr. Weiss discussing second virus wave, comparison with Spanish flu and SARS, realistic timelines for vaccines and required measures to prevent more spread of Covid19 in Canada. The whole video lasts 18 minutes, but if you want to see only his assessment of when the pandemic will end, watch just the last 90 seconds (he projects 3 more years). 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYuF-D8Nzm0&feature=youtu.be

« Last Edit: October 15, 2020, 02:34:57 pm by LesPalenik »
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