COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[Jeremy Roussak]

We're getting into politics which of course is impossible to avoid when you discuss policy.   Same Greek root word.  Poli.

It's not impossible; it just requires a modicum of restraint.

Jeremy

[Chris Kern]

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published an update today on the mortality estimates for the United States from the predictive models it is monitoring.  By October 3, the models suggest, as many as 27K more Americans may die from COVID-19 infections.  The prediction range is between 205,000 and 217,000 deaths compared to the 190,262 to-date that have been officially recorded.  For most reporting states and territories, the death rate remains high but stable.

• This week CDC received forecasts of national COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 39 modeling groups. Of the 39 groups, 33 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths, four groups forecasted total deaths only, and two forecasted new deaths only.
• This week’s national ensemble forecast indicates an uncertain trend in new COVID-19 deaths reported over the next four weeks and predicts that 3,300 to 8,000 new deaths will likely be reported during the week ending October 3, 2020. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 205,000 to 217,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.
• The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week may increase in 1 jurisdiction and decrease in 10 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.
  

These estimates appear to be for deaths directly attributable to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, not the "excess death" estimates that are computed months after the fact based on historical data.  The excess-death figures typically are significantly higher.

[John Camp]

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published an update today on the mortality estimates for the United States from the predictive models it is monitoring.  By October 3, the models suggest, as many as 27K more Americans may die from COVID-19 infections.  The prediction range is between 205,000 and 217,000 deaths compared to the 190,262 to-date that have been officially recorded.  For most reporting states and territories, the death rate remains high but stable.

These estimates appear to be for deaths directly attributable to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, not the "excess death" estimates that are computed months after the fact based on historical data.  The excess-death figures typically are significantly higher.

I think this is a conservative estimate. We're at almost 192,000 today, the 11th of September. I believe we'll be close to the upper range of these models, if not higher.

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Although it could be framed by some as political, this is a nice and well-founded summary by a science reporter (neither Democratic nor Republican, he comes from the UK) of the World Health Organization's role in disseminating information. This may become more relevant as disinformation on the internet is likely to increase in the coming months.

World Health Organization: Bad guy or fall guy?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qf_7nZdIYoI

I expect reactions to this post to uphold the standards of this thread, and be factual and based on science or other credible evidence (either 'pro' or 'con').

[LesPalenik]

Over 200,000 US deaths so far. 1081 deaths just today.
In contrast, Canada's total deaths amount to 9183 with 5 fatalities today.

Both numbers, total and daily counts, translate into 20 times more deaths in USA than in Canada (taking into consideration that USA has roughly 10 times as many citizens.
Why are the US numbers so high and who are the typical victims? Workers, beach partyers, bar patrons, sport fans. seniors, school kids?

[Paulo Bizarro]

In Portugal, the 7 day average for new cases is around 500 and something, with 7 day average for deaths around 4.

I think we will get back to March-April averages (700 or 800), but with much lower death toll. Majority of new cases are younger ages. Seems similar to other countries being under the 2nd wave.

[William Walker]

Although it could be framed by some as political, this is a nice and well-founded summary by a science reporter (neither Democratic nor Republican, he comes from the UK) of the World Health Organization's role in disseminating information. This may become more relevant as disinformation on the internet is likely to increase in the coming months.

World Health Organization: Bad guy or fall guy?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qf_7nZdIYoI

I expect reactions to this post to uphold the standards of this thread, and be factual and based on science or other credible evidence (either 'pro' or 'con').

Thanks Bart! Very interesting!

[Robert Roaldi]

Interesting animation addressing the math of mask wearing https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y47t9qLc9I4.

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Interesting animation addressing the math of mask wearing https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y47t9qLc9I4.

+1

[John Camp]

Interesting animation addressing the math of mask wearing https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y47t9qLc9I4.

+2

[TechTalk]

My thanks to Bart and Robert for posting the informative videos. Here is video from Science Magazine regarding the effects of Covid-19 on the entire body.

https://www.youtube.com/The coronavirus’ rampage through the body

[dreed]

I also believe the Asian culture believes in preventive medicine using natural methods than the North American chemical drugs onslaught after one gets ill.

Yes, that Asian culture believes in using things like pangolin scales, shark fins, etc as medicine. There's no scientific basis for any of their "natural methods" and quite simply, they don't work.

What Asian cultures have done better, in the places that have succeeded, is follow directions to wear masks and socially isolate. Asian cultures have better accepted the restrictions on their freedoms than have Americans. Asian cultures appear to better understand the benefit of collective action whereas Amercians are too caught up in individualism.

Asian cultures also distrust the government more (due to corruption), meaning that they've assumed it is worse than the government has let on.

[dreed]

Personally, I will continue to do my best to minimize visiting public spaces and avoiding crowds. As to the milk, the Chinese government is indeed pushing people to drink milk to get more protein and thus allegedly increase the body immunity. That's about as effective as eating tiger penis to increase male virility.

There is a body of evidence from people that have caught COVID-19 that suggests lower levels of vitamin D leads to more severe cases. Buying milk with vitamin D supplements is an effective way of supplementing your vitamin D levels.

[LesPalenik]

There is a body of evidence from people that have caught COVID-19 that suggests lower levels of vitamin D leads to more severe cases. Buying milk with vitamin D supplements is an effective way of supplementing your vitamin D levels.

That is the widely circulated recommendation, but the latest evidence suggests otherwise.

Milk and dairy products are pro-inflammatory and mucus producing. Milk increases the risks of respiratory conditions and allergies. It has been linked to the development of arthritis due to joints becoming inflamed. Remember, our bodies are not designed to naturally tolerate animal derived protein, and seeing it as foreign invaders jolts the immune system to overreact in order to protect.

Another research study published from the Harvard School for Public Health showed that in countries with less than 300 mg of calcium intake daily, osteoporosis rates were quite low. (https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/nutritionsource/calcium-full-story/ ). America has one of the highest consumption of dairy, yet one of the highest rates of osteoporosis. Excess calcium needs to excreted and the kidneys bear the load, which in turn contributes to the formation of kidney stones, which have a calcium composition.

A glass of milk also contains acidic animal protein that leeches calcium from the bones, pus cells, feces components, bovine growth hormone, antibiotics, and a whole lot of unnecessary fat, cholesterol and calories — all of which create a terrible imbalance in the body. Disease and cancer thrive in acidity. By eliminating dairy and other animal protein such as meats from the diet, an alkaline environment is created. Alkalinity perpetuates a “zen” atmosphere in the body.

https://www.synergistiqhealth.com/fallacy-milk-body-good/

[dreed]

That is the widely circulated recommendation, but the latest evidence suggests otherwise.

https://www.synergistiqhealth.com/fallacy-milk-body-good/

You should read the about page:

https://www.synergistiqhealth.com/about-us/

If you're going to be anti-milk, please get your data from a reliable source rather than the above. Government sources and refereed journal references would be good.

As for milk being acidic, please do better research:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22081694/

And yes, considering humans have only been around for ~300,000 years, we've only been drinking cows milk for 1-2% of that period of time. Some people are lactose intolerant so that won't work very well for them. As it is, that's probably the oldest form of digesting extra vitamin D as we've only been got a few mere decades of swallowing supplement pills and who knows what they really put in those pills, right?

The choices:
1) Do nothing, take whatever happens if you get COVID-19
2) Drink milk with vitamin D supplements, keeping in mind that humans have only been drinking milk for a few thousand years and haven't yet fully adapted to it
3) Take vitamin D in pills, knowing full well that pills contain many other substances besides the vitamins and that we've only putting them in the body for a few decades
4) Go out into the sun, without any sunscreen, to promote vitamin D generation through sunlight on the skin. This also carries with it coincident risk of skin cancer and melanomas.

Feel free to choose (1).

[armand]

I wouldn’t get caught too much in the vit D thing. Medicine is full of examples when we find in various diseases that different elements are decreased, however replacing them does not change the outcomes. The reasons for this are multiple, and include the element being just an innocent bystander, the result of the underlying process and not the culprit, and so on. Maybe those people had normal levels before the disease, for example.

[Robert Roaldi]

Interesting study of Canada's Covid experience https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/public-health-agency-of-canada-covid-19-statistics-1.5733069.

[TechTalk]

Changing Age Distribution of the COVID-19 Pandemic — United States, May–August 2020

CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) - September 23, 2020

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/Changing Age Distribution of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Summary

What is already known about this topic?

Early in the pandemic, COVID-19 incidence was highest among older adults.

What is added by this report?

During June–August 2020, COVID-19 incidence was highest in persons aged 20–29 years, who accounted for >20% of all confirmed cases. Younger adults likely contribute to community transmission of COVID-19. Across the southern United States in June 2020, increases in percentage of positive SARS-CoV-2 test results among adults aged 20–39 years preceded increases among those aged ≥60 years by 4–15 days.

What are the implications for public health practice?

Strict adherence to community mitigation strategies and personal preventive behaviors by younger adults is needed to help reduce infection and subsequent transmission to persons at higher risk for severe illness.

"This report provides preliminary evidence that younger adults contributed to community transmission of COVID-19 to older adults. Across the southern United States in June 2020, the increase in SARS-CoV-2 infection among younger adults preceded the increase among older adults by 4–15 days (or approximately one to three incubation periods). Similar observations have been reported by the World Health Organization. Further investigation of community transmission dynamics across age groups to identify factors that might be driving infection among younger adults and subsequent transmission to older adults is warranted."

"These findings have important clinical and public health implications. First, occupational and behavioral factors might put younger adults at higher risk for exposure to SARS-CoV-2. Younger adults make up a large proportion of workers in frontline occupations (e.g., retail stores, public transit, child care, and social services) and highly exposed industries (e.g., restaurants/bars, entertainment, and personal services), where consistent implementation of prevention strategies might be difficult or not possible. In addition, younger adults might also be less likely to follow community mitigation strategies, such as social distancing and avoiding group gatherings. Second, younger adults, who are more likely to have mild or no symptoms, can unknowingly contribute to presymptomatic or asymptomatic transmission to others, including to persons at higher risk for severe illness. Finally, SARS-CoV-2 infection is not benign in younger adults, especially among those with underlying medical conditions, who are at risk for hospitalization, severe illness, and death."

[chez]

Yes, that Asian culture believes in using things like pangolin scales, shark fins, etc as medicine. There's no scientific basis for any of their "natural methods" and quite simply, they don't work.

What Asian cultures have done better, in the places that have succeeded, is follow directions to wear masks and socially isolate. Asian cultures have better accepted the restrictions on their freedoms than have Americans. Asian cultures appear to better understand the benefit of collective action whereas Amercians are too caught up in individualism.

Asian cultures also distrust the government more (due to corruption), meaning that they've assumed it is worse than the government has let on.

Asian culture believes in preventive medicine or lifestyles and when needed they rely on other forms of medicine like acupuncture and tai chi to release stress and pain rather than uppers / downers and pain killers that are running rampant in western societies...resulting in drug dependencies leading to street drugs and overdoses.

Lots of vegetables, little meat and always prepared fresh is the Asian culture...contrast that to the lineups at McDonalds and the all you can eat bars in America.

Health starts by what one does  ( sit on your ass watching stupid comedy on TV or practice tai chi ) and what one eats ( fresh vegetables and fruits or processed packages from the microwave ) ... Not strictly the pills one pops in order to make it through the day.

[Manoli]

'Close to 100% accuracy': Helsinki airport uses sniffer dogs to detect Covid  (link below)

extract:  Scientists are not yet sure what exactly it is that the dogs sniff when they detect the virus. A French study published in June concluded that there was “very high evidence” that the sweat odour of Covid-positive people was different to that of those who did not have the virus, and that dogs could detect that difference.

Dogs are also able to identify Covid-19 from a much smaller molecular sample than PCR tests, Helsinki airport said, needing only 10-100 molecules to detect the presence of the virus compared with the 18m needed by laboratory equipment.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/24/close-to-100-accuracy-airport-enlists-sniffer-dogs-to-test-for-covid-19?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other