COVID-19 updates

[rabanito]

What's your point? 

Personally I don't think it is a good idea since the time required to be in transit to get the scientists and equipment here is not worth the loss.  But I dont think he did this out of a lets only make this available for the USA.

Why should be there a point, sir?
Just information.

[rabanito]

The German company CureVac stated they were never approached by anyone from the US.  this really is Fake News.

Maybe you are right.
We may never know the truth.

But it is plausible.

[petermfiore]

Maybe you are right.
We may never know the truth.

But it is plausible.

Maybe, probably not. We may never know.

[Alan Klein]

No. The current advice is NOT to go to see anyone, but to self isolate and weather the storm. If you suspect corona, they will come to you, in special gear, to take a swab. Even if tested positive, you won't be admitted to a hospital unless you require intensive care.

Get well quick.  Did they send anyone over?

[Alan Klein]

No. The current advice is NOT to go to see anyone, but to self isolate and weather the storm. If you suspect corona, they will come to you, in special gear, to take a swab. Even if tested positive, you won't be admitted to a hospital unless you require intensive care.

Get well quick.  Did they send anyone over?

There is over reaction and then Damn. 

Many states are implementing closure for all sit down patrons of bars and restaurants for about 15 days.  A few for three weeks, which I think is a little too long to commit to right now.  But Denver is having its bars and restaurants stay closed until May 11.  What? 

Unless there is a nation wide moratorium on commercial mortgage and rent payments, the entirety of Denver's restaurant scene will be out of business by then.  I've worked in the industry for a number of years, and unless people (and I mean young healthy people) really start dropping like flies, your looking at a full sector of Denver's economy loosing all trust in government (owners and workers) and will more then likely start operating with a big middle finger aimed at city hall. 

Costs goes all ways.  Landlords have to pay mortgages, taxes, service people, etc.  By waiving rents, that might bankrupt the landlord. If the economy takes such a hit, then landlords will have to accept some non payments.  Otherwise, if the restaurant goes bust if they force payment, they won;t have anyone to take their place.  Government shouldn't get involved.  Let owners and renters work it out by negotiating with each other.  Each situation is different so a blanket prescription is not the way to do it.  Government isn't the answer.  Stick to your beliefs Joe.  Let free markets work.

[Alan Klein]

A bit of good news from China.  https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 discusses the impact of temperature and humidity on the transmission of COVID-19 (you can download the full paper but I'm posting the abstract).  We'll see if this holds up as the weather warms up.

Abstract:  This paper investigates how air temperature and humidity influence the transmission of COVID-19. After estimating the serial interval of COVID-19 from 105 pairs of the virus carrier and the infected, we calculate the daily effective reproductive number, R, for each of all 100 Chinese cities with more than 40 cases. Using the daily R values from January 21 to 23, 2020 as proxies of non-intervened transmission intensity, we find, under a linear regression framework for 100 Chinese cities, high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of cities. One degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively. This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19.

So slowing down the infection rate (flattening the curve) is good advice.  That's good news. 

[Alan Goldhammer]

Good analogy. I was an IT director at the time and it was stressful! We worked for two years patching, replacing, and auditing while management complained about costs and when only one (fairly minor) system broke they were like "what was all that fuss about then?".

We had an industry wide team in the pharma sector that looked at this as well.  So many processes were computer controlled with operating systems that only used two digit year values.  We often forget how memory in computer systems had to be carefully controlled and that even saving space by using shorter dates was the general rule.  Companies ended up doing audits and revalidation of systems and no problems occurred.

[Raul_Rodriguez]

Government shouldn't get involved.  Let owners and renters work it out by negotiating with each other.  Each situation is different so a blanket prescription is not the way to do it.  Government isn't the answer.  Stick to your beliefs Joe.  Let free markets work.

The government is as of this moment considering cash payments to Americans as a possibility. NY Times Link

[Alan Klein]

Much depends on the infection and mortality data from the next several weeks.  IMO, most of the countries in Europe that have adopted strict criteria did so because they did not want a repeat of Italy who are experiencing the highest mortality based on WHO statistics.  What you are seeing is the precautionary principle being carried out to an extreme.  Is this the right policy?  I don't know.  I have a long background in the pharma industry and before that biomedical research and I think the short term disruption is worth it.  The bigger policy question is who gets financial assistance going forward.  We have already seen the airline industry request a large amount of money.  The shale oil industry in the US will likely collapse, not because of COVID but because of the ultra-low world oil price brought about by Saudi Arabia.  A lot of the companies in that sector are highly leveraged and cannot meet debt payments because they cannot make a profit as prices are about $30/barrel below the break even point.

There needs to be zero interest long term loans from the government for all the small businesses that are impacted by the various shutdowns as their cash flows right now are ZERO and they still have carrying costs.  I'll leave it to the economists to discuss policy as I don't understand some of what is being argued for.  You can have a lot of money right now but there is now where to spend it as lots of retailers are shuttered other than via electronic ordering.

The Fed is starting another QE printing press operation.  Rates dropped to 0%. Trump asks for $850 billion.  Here we go again.  This time there's going to be huge inflation.  The currency is going to crater making everyone's savings and assets worth half. The stock market and real estate market are going to crater.  If this thing recurs next year in a different strain, forget about it. Gee I hope I'm wrong.

[Alan Klein]

Good analogy. I was an IT director at the time and it was stressful! We worked for two years patching, replacing, and auditing while management complained about costs and when only one (fairly minor) system broke they were like "what was all that fuss about then?".

No good deed goes unpunished.

[Alan Klein]

Good analogy. I was an IT director at the time and it was stressful! We worked for two years patching, replacing, and auditing while management complained about costs and when only one (fairly minor) system broke they were like "what was all that fuss about then?".

No good deed goes unpunished.

I'm going to do what they ask, self-distance. Wash my hands, don't touch my face. We can ride out a couple of weeks and then they can see where we are. Be sensible and don't put others at risk. Take care of your neighbors.

My wife and I are self-isolating.  I told her not to visit neighbors as that might spread the virus.  Of course, if there's an emergency, that's another matter. 

[Alan Klein]

We had an industry wide team in the pharma sector that looked at this as well.  So many processes were computer controlled with operating systems that only used two digit year values.  We often forget how memory in computer systems had to be carefully controlled and that even saving space by using shorter dates was the general rule.  Companies ended up doing audits and revalidation of systems and no problems occurred.

My firm did Building Automation control of office and other buildings.  Our systems controlled HVAC, lights and other building systems and applied energy management algorithms.  I faked dates before 2K over weekends when there were no building occupancy in all the systems to see what would happen when the actual 2K occured.  Fortunately, no problems.  We went through the actual date without skipping a beat. 

[JoeKitchen]

Why should be there a point, sir?
Just information.

You are trying to insinuate through an undisclosed source (which they all seem to be nowadays) that Trump wants the vaccine so that one but Americans have access to it.  I dont believe this story.  There is a lot of purposeful misinformation from the media with the sole intent to damage Trump going around.  Just this morning the NYTs purposely took out of context a quote from Trump's call with the state governors to try and imply the federal government is leaving the states out to dry on this. 

This was clearly false if you listened to the entire interview.  The press is really showing their inherent bias against the president and republicans in general here, and it is disgusting. 

[James Clark]

The press is really showing their inherent bias against the president and republicans in general here, and it is disgusting.

So true.  The president and "republicans in general" are the real victims here.

[JoeKitchen]

So true.  The president and "republicans in general" are the real victims here.

LOL James. 

If you cant agree that the story the NYTs ran this morning is a blanant example of a purposely mis-guiding media, then you're like all three monkey's, covering your eyes, ears and mouth at the same time. 

[Rob C]

I guess you missed my post on England's response doing just that, showing us if this is an over reaction or not. 

For our European members here, I think it is important to point out that in the USA people have a deep-seeded hatrid of government, or at least listening to government compared to mainland Europeans. This is important to keep in mind when looking at the USA and how we respond.  Good or bad, this will be a key factor in what happens here. 

Like I said before, I give this two weeks until people start saying, "F#%& the government and their decisions, I'm going out and doing what I want," while telling every politician their number one with a middle finger.  It's going to happen.  Although I am relatively calm, others I know are loosing their damn minds.  It's only a matter of time before they boil over.

Why have people in the USA such a hatred of their governments? I thought that they believed every word that fell from the lips of the various great leaders; if not, why elect them in the first place? Hoof the buggers out and bring in technocrats who may understand reality as distinct from political vote hunting.

If you are right, and Americans do turn out to be a bunch of lawbreaking nutters ignoring all the common-interest emergency rules, won't you all be delighted there are so many guns in their hands! Oh, didn't somebody on LuLa once suggest that the free markets will solve everything the guns were to protect the "American people" from the laws and powers of their own governments?

:-)

[JoeKitchen]

Why have people in the USA such a hatred of their governments? I thought that they believed every word that fell from the lips of the various great leaders; if not, why elect them in the first place? Hoof the buggers out and bring in technocrats who may understand reality as distinct from political vote hunting.

If you are right, and Americans do turn out to be a bunch of lawbreaking nutters ignoring all the common-interest emergency rules, won't you all be delighted there are so many guns in their hands! Oh, didn't somebody on LuLa once suggest that the free markets will solve everything the guns were to protect the "American people" from the laws and powers of their own governments?

:-)

Our founding involved violently revolting against our government and the founding fathers purposely instilled this sentiment into our two most important documents, the Declaration of Independence and the Bill of Rights. 

It's bread into us, whether good or bad. 

FYI, when I write these things, I am just taking into account the natural tendency of this country, to revolt.  I, myself, am not calling for allowing people to do whatever they want currently. 

I feel that two weeks is an appropriate amount of time for this, and then to make necessary modifications so the economy does not tank.  Such as, allow economic activity of all sorts to start up again while taking additional measures to care for the sick and elderly. 

If the current state of things are tried to be implemented for more then two, at most three, weeks, I'm waiving my middle finger at city hall, end of story.  Unless people start dropping like flies from this, it is going to universally happen. 

[James Clark]

LOL James. 

If you cant agree that the story the NYTs ran this morning is a blanant example of a purposely mis-guiding media, then you're like all three monkey's, covering your eyes, ears and mouth at the same time.

Oh, no I agree completely.  It's unacceptable when any media outlet assumes the worst about a President that is as forthright, honest, concise and magnanimous as Donald J. Trump.  It's just so gosh darn unfair.

[JoeKitchen]

Oh, no I agree completely.  It's unacceptable when any media outlet assumes the worst about a President that is as forthright, honest, concise and magnanimous as Donald J. Trump.  It's just so gosh darn unfair.

Thanks for being pretentious and partisan, and showing your true colors.  Either that or you're being foolish to actually suggest Trump handled the PR of this well.  He did not.

But for the Grey Lady to take what he said out of context and purposely manipulate it for a political score for the Dems is unacceptable.  And for you to go along with it shows exactly how partisan you are being as well. 

[James Clark]

...you're being foolish to actually suggest Trump handled the PR of this well.  He did not.

That's sort of the Trump administration in a nutshell, amirite?

But for the Grey Lady to take what he said out of context and purposely manipulate it for a political score for the Dems is unacceptable.  And for you to go along with it shows exactly how partisan you are being as well.

I'll be serious for a moment...

You're correct, but rightwingers hold traditional media to a standard that "their" (the right wing) favored publications could never, ever, ever, EVER uphold.  It would be counter to their entire raison d'être.. So yeah, while I concur that the headline is misleading and I do wish that media like NYT and WaPo were hyper aware of their obligations, especially now, you'll pardon me if my eyes are rolling so far that they're about to pop out of my head when you cast Donald Trump and his current enablers in Congress as victims of any sort.

They just don't like it when their own tactics are used on them.