COVID-19 updates

[chez]

I went to our city's largest supermarket Monday night -- normal hours are from 6 a.m. to midnight -- and found that it had closed at 9 p.m. because, according to an employee who was standing outside smoking a cigarette, of the corona virus. That strikes me as exactly backwards. People have to eat, they have to go to the supermarket, so instead of restricting hours, they should extend them, to spread the crowd, rather than compress it. If you're going to have 2,000 customers a day, do you really want to squeeze them into a shorter time period, with more people in the store all at once, or spread them? Apparently, the supermarket wizards disagree with my assessment.

Many close down early so they can do a deep disinfecting of the entire store.

There are also grocery stores out there that have a seniors only hour, usually first thing in the morning when seniors are the only shoppers allowed in the store. Great idea which reduces the chances of infection to those most vulnerable.

[BJL]

Many close down early so they can do a deep disinfecting of the entire store.

Ah; that perhaps works well with something else being done at some supermarkets: the first hour after opening for older customers only, to let them stay away from the bigger crowds. The also get first access to the freshly cleaned store.

[Robert Roaldi]

Many close down early so they can do a deep disinfecting of the entire store.

There are also grocery stores out there that have a seniors only hour, usually first thing in the morning when seniors are the only shoppers allowed in the store. Great idea which reduces the chances of infection to those most vulnerable.

A friend in Toronto showing up for work saw several transport trucks behind the local Walmart, still unloading. They're normally gone by then. He asked and the store people told him that they have a shortage of staff so unloading is taking longer. Maybe some places are reducing shopping hours because of staff availability. It may be difficult to make general statements, too many variables.

[BJL]

There is over reaction and then Damn. 

Many states are implementing closure for all sit down patrons of bars and restaurants for about 15 days.  A few for three weeks, which I think is a little too long to commit to right now.  But Denver is having its bars and restaurants stay closed until May 11.  What? 
... your looking at a full sector of Denver's economy loosing all trust in government (owners and workers) and will more then likely start operating with a big middle finger aimed at city hall.

I agree: my plan is to follow the latest recommendations, but no more. In particular, look at the last line of the 15 day plan at https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/03.16.20_coronavirus-guidance_8.5x11_315PM.pdf which recommends extra steps like closing bars, restaurants and gyms only in regions with active community spread, not nationwide. AFAIK, only a half dozen cities have reached "community spread" status, and not mine, so I am very happy to help support restaurant owners and employees.
And I went to the gym the morning.

[JoeKitchen]

I agree: my plan is to follow the latest recommendations, but no more. In particular, look at the last line of the 15 day plan at https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/03.16.20_coronavirus-guidance_8.5x11_315PM.pdf which recommends extra steps like closing bars, restaurants and gyms only in regions with active community spread, not nationwide. AFAIK, only a half dozen cities have reached "community spread" status, and not mine, so I am very happy to help support restaurant owners and employees.
And I went to the gym the morning.

I'm not going to lie, I think a big part of this is due to TDS. 

Yes, I will agree that with how Trump has been directly handling this and what he has been saying has been awful.  He really needs to know when to listen to his PR team.  However, many of the actions taken have been on point. 

But I think a lot of the extended shut downs are politicians trying to one up him and everyone else to gain political points later on.  Normally this would work since there would be no counterfactual to what happened.  Meaning if deaths are low, a politician can say that they did what we needed and that is why deaths are low. 

In this case though, England is screwing that up.  If in England, the death rates are the same or only slightly higher, that would be bad news for every politician that goes extreme on this.  England would provide that counterfactual.  However, if England's death rate is far and above ours, it would certainly help those who go overboard. 

IMHO, I feel England's tactic is the better route, but time will tell. 

On top of that, how do you really enforce this?  What if someone orders take out, shows up, it's not finished and asks to have a drink at the bar while he waits?  This will of course quickly turn into the restaurant just serving normal customers.  Are we really going to start policing all restaurants and bars to see if they are only serving take out?  I give this two weeks before it starts to turn back towards operations at normal. 

[James Clark]

No. The current advice is NOT to go to see anyone, but to self isolate and weather the storm. If you suspect corona, they will come to you, in special gear, to take a swab. Even if tested positive, you won't be admitted to a hospital unless you require intensive care.

Sending good thoughts and wishes for continued sorta ok, not too bad health

[MattBurt]

There is over reaction and then Damn. 

Many states are implementing closure for all sit down patrons of bars and restaurants for about 15 days.  A few for three weeks, which I think is a little too long to commit to right now.  But Denver is having its bars and restaurants stay closed until May 11.  What? 

Unless there is a nation wide moratorium on commercial mortgage and rent payments, the entirety of Denver's restaurant scene will be out of business by then.  I've worked in the industry for a number of years, and unless people (and I mean young healthy people) really start dropping like flies, your looking at a full sector of Denver's economy loosing all trust in government (owners and workers) and will more then likely start operating with a big middle finger aimed at city hall.

I agree it sucks and I expect there will be some kind of government relief package but I think it is the right thing to do from a public health standpoint.

I feel like a big disruptive move like this actually improves my trust in government agencies because they are actually trying to do something to save people over making money. That seems like proper prioritization to me.

Look at how not doing something like this soon enough has impacted Italy.

[Alan Goldhammer]

I agree: my plan is to follow the latest recommendations, but no more. In particular, look at the last line of the 15 day plan at https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/03.16.20_coronavirus-guidance_8.5x11_315PM.pdf which recommends extra steps like closing bars, restaurants and gyms only in regions with active community spread, not nationwide. AFAIK, only a half dozen cities have reached "community spread" status, and not mine, so I am very happy to help support restaurant owners and employees.
And I went to the gym the morning.

State of Maryland locked everything down yesterday.  Ohio did this as well.  Six counties in the bay area of CA where our daughter lives have also done this.  What is weird about that one is that our daughter is a music therapist at UCSF Childrens Hospital (she lives in Oakland) and as of late yesterday was still deemed to be essential person and has to report for work.  Her workload is curtailed because some of the patients are in quarantine because of COVID and only essential medical personnel can go in those rooms.  Visits by family members are restricted to one member and they have to scrub and gown up. 

[JoeKitchen]

I agree it sucks and I expect there will be some kind of government relief package but I think it is the right thing to do from a public health standpoint.

I feel like a big disruptive move like this actually improves my trust in government agencies because they are actually trying to do something to save people over making money. That seems like proper prioritization to me.

Look at how not doing something like this soon enough has impacted Italy.

True on the Italy comment. 

But the question is, is some of this a huge over reaction?  England will let us know, and if so, it will be a big flop for all those who did over react. 

Just think about, geographic sections of the country could be economically destroyed, and if England provides that counterfactual, that will have consequence that no politician can argue against.  Time will tell. 

[Alan Goldhammer]

True on the Italy comment. 

But the question is, is some of this a huge over reaction?  England will let us know, and if so, it will be a big flop for all those who did over react. 

Just think about, geographic sections of the country could be economically destroyed, and if England provides that counterfactual, that will have consequence that no politician can argue against.  Time will tell.

Much depends on the infection and mortality data from the next several weeks.  IMO, most of the countries in Europe that have adopted strict criteria did so because they did not want a repeat of Italy who are experiencing the highest mortality based on WHO statistics.  What you are seeing is the precautionary principle being carried out to an extreme.  Is this the right policy?  I don't know.  I have a long background in the pharma industry and before that biomedical research and I think the short term disruption is worth it.  The bigger policy question is who gets financial assistance going forward.  We have already seen the airline industry request a large amount of money.  The shale oil industry in the US will likely collapse, not because of COVID but because of the ultra-low world oil price brought about by Saudi Arabia.  A lot of the companies in that sector are highly leveraged and cannot meet debt payments because they cannot make a profit as prices are about $30/barrel below the break even point.

There needs to be zero interest long term loans from the government for all the small businesses that are impacted by the various shutdowns as their cash flows right now are ZERO and they still have carrying costs.  I'll leave it to the economists to discuss policy as I don't understand some of what is being argued for.  You can have a lot of money right now but there is now where to spend it as lots of retailers are shuttered other than via electronic ordering.

[josh.reichmann]

Statistics. Hope. https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3800632,00.html

[rabanito]

True on the Italy comment. 

But the question is, is some of this a huge over reaction?  England will let us know, and if so, it will be a big flop for all those who did over react. 

Just think about, geographic sections of the country could be economically destroyed, and if England provides that counterfactual, that will have consequence that no politician can argue against.  Time will tell.

I'm told that that person Trump tried to buy CureVac to get the exclusive rights for a vaccine being developed by the Germans.
They seem to have said "NO", the vaccine should be for everybody.
I know, "fake news". But I don't read "tweets".
It looks like "kicking butts" works in both ways.
There is no little enemy...

Maybe there is a God after all

[MattBurt]

True on the Italy comment. 

But the question is, is some of this a huge over reaction?  England will let us know, and if so, it will be a big flop for all those who did over react. 

Just think about, geographic sections of the country could be economically destroyed, and if England provides that counterfactual, that will have consequence that no politician can argue against.  Time will tell.

We may never know. If it's the right amount of reaction and the virus spread is slowed, saving lives, naysayers will call it an overreaction.

[Alan Goldhammer]

I'm told that that person Trump tried to buy CureVac to get the exclusive rights for a vaccine being developed by the Germans.
They seem to have said "NO", the vaccine should be for everybody.
I know, "fake news". But I don't read "tweets".

The German company CureVac stated they were never approached by anyone from the US.  this really is Fake News.

[Robert Roaldi]

We may never know. If it's the right amount of reaction and the virus spread is slowed, saving lives, naysayers will call it an overreaction.

That reminds me a little of the millennium bug. Over the years, I've read comments from people who didn't know what they were talking about that the millennium bug thing was a hoax because no airplanes crashed at midnight. You carefully explain to them that many companies throughout the world audited and repaired their software in 1998 and 1999 but I bet that fell largely on deaf ears. Part of trouble was that the whole airplanes crashing thing was utter bs in the first place, so the fact that it didn't happen meant nothing one way or the other.

Keeping the peak infection rate down, aside from anything regarding Covid-19 patients themselves, means that the medical establishment can keep working on chemo and heart attack patients, etc.. The fact that some people don't understand this and whine and complain about some actions is just noise. It's a matter of keeping it all reasonable, something that the interweb isn't very good at.

[MattBurt]

That reminds me a little of the millennium bug. Over the years, I've read comments from people who didn't know what they were talking about that the millennium bug thing was a hoax because no airplanes crashed at midnight. You carefully explain to them that many companies throughout the world audited and repaired their software in 1998 and 1999 but I bet that fell largely on deaf ears. Part of trouble was that the whole airplanes crashing thing was utter bs in the first place, so the fact that it didn't happen meant nothing one way or the other.

Keeping the peak infection rate down, aside from anything regarding Covid-19 patients themselves, means that the medical establishment can keep working on chemo and heart attack patients, etc.. The fact that some people don't understand this and whine and complain about some actions is just noise. It's a matter of keeping it all reasonable, something that the interweb isn't very good at.

Good analogy. I was an IT director at the time and it was stressful! We worked for two years patching, replacing, and auditing while management complained about costs and when only one (fairly minor) system broke they were like "what was all that fuss about then?".

[JoeKitchen]

I'm told that that person Trump tried to buy CureVac to get the exclusive rights for a vaccine being developed by the Germans.
They seem to have said "NO", the vaccine should be for everybody.
I know, "fake news". But I don't read "tweets".
It looks like "kicking butts" works in both ways.
There is no little enemy...

Maybe there is a God after all

What's your point? 

Personally I don't think it is a good idea since the time required to be in transit to get the scientists and equipment here is not worth the loss.  But I dont think he did this out of a lets only make this available for the USA.

[SharonVL]

I'm going to do what they ask, self-distance. Wash my hands, don't touch my face. We can ride out a couple of weeks and then they can see where we are. Be sensible and don't put others at risk. Take care of your neighbors.

[Robert Roaldi]

Good analogy. I was an IT director at the time and it was stressful! We worked for two years patching, replacing, and auditing while management complained about costs and when only one (fairly minor) system broke they were like "what was all that fuss about then?".

Same old same old.

[JoeKitchen]

We may never know. If it's the right amount of reaction and the virus spread is slowed, saving lives, naysayers will call it an overreaction.

I guess you missed my post on England's response doing just that, showing us if this is an over reaction or not. 

For our European members here, I think it is important to point out that in the USA people have a deep-seeded hatrid of government, or at least listening to government compared to mainland Europeans. This is important to keep in mind when looking at the USA and how we respond.  Good or bad, this will be a key factor in what happens here. 

Like I said before, I give this two weeks until people start saying, "F#%& the government and their decisions, I'm going out and doing what I want," while telling every politician their number one with a middle finger.  It's going to happen.  Although I am relatively calm, others I know are loosing their damn minds.  It's only a matter of time before they boil over.