After Photokina Medium Format rumors (UPD. And The WINNAH is FUUUJIIII !!! )

[Doug Peterson]

Not clear why Phase summoned all its dealers to Germany, other than for a big 'jolly' - can anyone explain?

Phase One has had a Dealer Conference at Kina every Kina since I've been doing this (the last six Kinas).

[narikin]

Phase One has had a Dealer Conference at Kina every Kina since I've been doing this (the last six Kinas).

so.. it is a big Jolly !

[BJL]

We will be posting a set of hand held shots we did with the IQ4 150mp tomorrow. It shows, just as the math would predict, that you only need around a stop faster shutter speed than a D850 to get excellent sharpness/detail at 100% pixel view (the most aggressive way of comparing).

Doug, of course it would be "internet style" oversimplifying trash talk to say that a 150MP camera always needs to be used on a tripod. It is just that the cases where hand-holding can get the best out of the sensor (including being able to use base ISO speed) are limited to fairly bright light and short focal lengths. That is what I expected of your examples, and that is what we got.

I do accept the basic point of that article though: it is linear resolution that dictates shutter speed needs, along with angular FOV rather than focal length itself, so the 1/f guideline relaxes in proportion to linear format size. So at 14,000 pixels wide, the linear resolution is only about four times what the 1/f rule was aiming at with 35mm film, so only about quadruples the shutter speed needed for a given FOV.

And big, heavy DMF SLR cameras have a bit of an inbuilt steadicam feature!


But how about a shoot-out at an indoor venue where neither flash not tripods are allowed.

[BernardLanguillier]

I have used my H6D-100c handheld quite a bit successfully. You need a sufficient shutter speed indeed.

But the key challenge isn't that, it is AF.

And this is where the Fuji GFX-100 will be in a totally different league to the extent that it will IMHO make the IQ4 and H6D-100c/H7D-150c irrelevant for non tripod usage, or more accurately for moving subjects.

Cheers,
Bernard

[eronald]

So where is the Hassy set of Photokina announcements?
wtf?


Hasselblad are making a PR mistake of the type that can break a company.

Edmund

[FelixWu]

So where is the Hassy set of Photokina announcements?
wtf?


Hasselblad are making a PR mistake of the type that can break a company.

Edmund

Lenses

[BernardLanguillier]

So where is the Hassy set of Photokina announcements?
wtf?

Hasselblad are making a PR mistake of the type that can break a company.

Fully agreed. The 3 X1D lenses announced are a very poor showing compared to Fuji and P1.

Cheers,
Bernard

[Christopher]

I think we overestimate the A&D department at Hasselblad. I think they have the same problems as Phase One. It’s just tiny compared to Fuji.

I think when Fuji released the GFX 50s they started nearly right away with the 50r and the 100s.

Hasselblad was doing everything possible to get the production running and problems solved with their current camera.

I had hoped that DJI would help there with more money and man power, but it looks like it didn’t happen.

The same goes for phase one they were working on the IQ4 and the team is so small that they certainly have no way on working on another big topic.

This is all speculation without any prove, just my best guess.


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[eronald]

No. The roadmap with the phase detect BSI 100Mp was known to H at least 3 years ago, they have planned out a full range of lenses, their tech project is calbrated to rendezvous with this chip, in the same way as the Fuji announcement has been pending for 6 months with the development running for 2 years, something has gone wrong here.

This is a full-grown PR disaster, from a company which is very savvy about PR. It feels wrong. And at the centre of this story is the 100MP Sony chip.

Give me some credit, look at my prediction track record in this thread. Something feels weird about the lack of an official Hassy statement, or interview, they should be giving some indications of being at the controls. If I were inclined to write rumors I would say at this point that I suspect that the relationship between Sony and Hassy is not as good as it could be.

It is possible that Sony just cannot make enough of this chip, are under contractual obligations for part of the production, and cannot supply Hassy who are stuck. Or maybe Hassy have become terminally bad at PR.

Edmund

I think we overestimate the A&D department at Hasselblad. I think they have the same problems as Phase One. It’s just tiny compared to Fuji.

I think when Fuji released the GFX 50s they started nearly right away with the 50r and the 100s.

Hasselblad was doing everything possible to get the production running and problems solved with their current camera.

I had hoped that DJI would help there with more money and man power, but it looks like it didn’t happen.

The same goes for phase one they were working on the IQ4 and the team is so small that they certainly have no way on working on another big topic.

This is all speculation without any prove, just my best guess.


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[BernardLanguillier]

No. The roadmap with the phase detect BSI 100Mp was known to H at least 3 years ago, they have planned out a full range of lenses, their tech project is calbrated to rendezvous with this chip, in the same way as the Fuji announcement has been pending for 6 months with the development running for 2 years, something has gone wrong here.

This is a full-grown PR disaster, from a company which is very savvy about PR. It feels wrong. And at the centre of this story is the 100MP Sony chip.

Give me some credit, look at my prediction track record in this thread. Something feels weird about the lack of an official Hassy statement, or interview, they should be giving some indications of being at the controls. If I were inclined to write rumors I would say at this point that I suspect that the relationship between Sony and Hassy is not as good as it could be.

It is possible that Sony just cannot make enough of this chip, are under contractual obligations for part of the production, and cannot supply Hassy who are stuck. Or maybe Hassy have become terminally bad at PR.

It it were just about putting a 150mp sensor in an H6D we would have it already.

I believe that this means they are developing an H7D that is more ambitious. My bet is that it will feature an EVF as well as a couple of new H mount lenses that will be designed to AF decently.

But I could be wrong of course.

Cheers,
Bernard

[eronald]

It it were just about putting a 150mp sensor in an H6D we would have it already.

I believe that this means they are developing an H7D that is more ambitious. My bet is that it will feature an EVF as well as a couple of new H mount lenses that will be designed to AF decently.

But I could be wrong of course.

Cheers,
Bernard

Bernard,

 The X1D is the main Hasselblad branded camera at this point - not the H or even the cameras on the drones.
 
 There won't be enough large-sized sensors around for some time to make an EVF H7-150 a viable seller in quantities sufficient to keep the company alive, and Fuji is making a 50MP camera at the price of an H6 lenscap.

 Where is the X1D-100? ??

Edmund

[Bo_Dez]

I very much like Bernards idea of an EVF H, and while I could totally be wrong, I don't think we are going to see an evf H anytime soon. As seemingly obvious as the need for it is, I think it might be premature.

Although no one expected Fuji to drop IBIS into the GFX100 either so who knows. Perhaps now that Phase One has dropped the H platform from the repertoire they might focus everything on the H and the X will be delayed shortly.

The GFX100 changes everything though and I think it's certain I will try it out rather than the H or Phase One back for the first time in a long time.

[landscapephoto]

No. The roadmap with the phase detect BSI 100Mp was known to H at least 3 years ago, they have planned out a full range of lenses, their tech project is calbrated to rendezvous with this chip, in the same way as the Fuji announcement has been pending for 6 months with the development running for 2 years, something has gone wrong here.

This is a full-grown PR disaster, from a company which is very savvy about PR. It feels wrong. And at the centre of this story is the 100MP Sony chip.

Give me some credit, look at my prediction track record in this thread. Something feels weird about the lack of an official Hassy statement, or interview, they should be giving some indications of being at the controls. If I were inclined to write rumors I would say at this point that I suspect that the relationship between Sony and Hassy is not as good as it could be.

It is possible that Sony just cannot make enough of this chip, are under contractual obligations for part of the production, and cannot supply Hassy who are stuck. Or maybe Hassy have become terminally bad at PR.

I agree that the lack of an X2D and GXF 100 are puzzling, but don't forget that the next Photokina is in half a year (early May 2019) and that more cameras are sold in June (right before people travel) than for Christmas. 2018 is the last Photokina to take place in Autumn.

[eronald]

I agree that the lack of an X2D and GXF 100 are puzzling, but don't forget that the next Photokina is in half a year (early May 2019) and that more cameras are sold in June (right before people travel) than for Christmas. 2018 is the last Photokina to take place in Autumn.

It is my opinion this is a PR disaster.

The puzzle is not the lack of a camera, it is the lack of a reaction in the form of a CEO interview.

Hassies and Leicas get given as Christmas gifts, and bought as "gifts to oneself" at Christmas. A woman of a certain social class will go into Dior any day of the year and drop $10K on a dress or $5K on a handbag on a whim, that's what makes the fashion trade so profitable. At Xmas she'll go out and get her guy a tie, or if she really likes him take him to the shop and make him buy "that camera" while she waits patiently for all of ten minutes.

If you ask the advertisers, they will tell you that about 70% of discretionary spending is now in the hands of women, the guys don't really do much that much everyday leisure buying. In fact in most high-priced city centres nowadays shops don't waste space on man stuff.  But the sports car, luxury watch and camera trades are on the opposite side of that equation, and the Christmas sales are important. The same is true for mobile phones where men probably represent a significant fraction of the buyers of the large $1K phones with complex cameras

Ask the world's most profitable camera company, Apple - they make most of their sales in the year's end quarter.

Edmund

[eronald]

A nice write up of the Leica S3.
Apparently Leica have realized that a good grip, fast start up, decent frame rate  and nice finder are an asset for a camera

https://www.theverge.com/2018/9/27/17904802/leica-s3-medium-format-dslr-hands-on-photokina-2018

Edmund

[narikin]

A nice write up of the Leica S3.
Apparently Leica have realized that a good grip, fast start up, decent frame rate  and nice finder are an asset for a camera

https://www.theverge.com/2018/9/27/17904802/leica-s3-medium-format-dslr-hands-on-photokina-2018

Edmund

I tried the S1 when it came out, and was *shocked* how poor the standard 70mm/f2.5 lens was. It had a huge amount of CA on it, really making it near unusable.  I asked the dealer, and once I'd declined to buy, he admitted, that they were dismayed at this too.

Hopefully they have improved things since then, but this was simply not good enough for a flagship product. Loved the body form, the shutter's quiteness, the build quality, etc, but all that is moot if the lenses fail to perform.`

[Doug Peterson]

I agree that the lack of an X2D and GXF 100 are puzzling, but don't forget that the next Photokina is in half a year (early May 2019) and that more cameras are sold in June (right before people travel) than for Christmas. 2018 is the last Photokina to take place in Autumn.

For what it's worth we (DT) find a huge bump in sales at the end of the year (typically Thanksgiving to New Years) because of the tax benefits of spending photo-income (profits) in December vs January. It's always our best month. This is more true of our professional clients than our enthusiasts since the latter group by definition usually does not derive meaningful income/profit from photography, so I would not expect the same extent of a sales bump for products with a lower sales-to-pros ratio.

[hubell]

No. The roadmap with the phase detect BSI 100Mp was known to H at least 3 years ago, they have planned out a full range of lenses, their tech project is calbrated to rendezvous with this chip, in the same way as the Fuji announcement has been pending for 6 months with the development running for 2 years, something has gone wrong here.

This is a full-grown PR disaster, from a company which is very savvy about PR. It feels wrong. And at the centre of this story is the 100MP Sony chip.

Give me some credit, look at my prediction track record in this thread. Something feels weird about the lack of an official Hassy statement, or interview, they should be giving some indications of being at the controls. If I were inclined to write rumors I would say at this point that I suspect that the relationship between Sony and Hassy is not as good as it could be.

It is possible that Sony just cannot make enough of this chip, are under contractual obligations for part of the production, and cannot supply Hassy who are stuck. Or maybe Hassy have become terminally bad at PR.

Edmund

This is simply baseless speculation. There are a number of possible reasons why Hasselblad has not issued any info about an X2D. Let’s start with this possibility: Hasselblad took a huge hit on its credibility by prematurely announcing the X1D and then released it when it was barely ready just to get it out the door. Do you think they may have decided not to repeat that debacle? Another possibility is that they want to keep the specifics of their plans under wraps and have some surprises of their own up their sleeves. Fuji has announced that they won’t release the GFS 100S till mid-2019. Once the initial mania dies down about the Fuji announcement, Hasselblad has plenty of time to make its own announcement. It simply has to announce before the Fuji hits the streets. It’s not like the Fuji is shipping next week. We may even hear something from Hasselblad at PhotoExpo in NYC. To me, the least likely possible explanation is the one you have chosen, that the lack of some sort of announcement reflects something dire about Hasselblad’s condition.
We shall see what’s in store. In the meantime, there are three new XCD lenses for the X1D. The MTF charts for the 135mm lens with the 1.7 teleconverter reflect a spectacular level of performance, even with the teleconverter mounted.

[Joe Towner]

A vision statement from Hasselblad would be nice.  Lay out what they've accomplished with the X1D, how the H is still their flagship, pushing it to the 150mp sensor. Maybe some integration with the Bron lighting package - that they haven't released a HVD with a built in Bron remote is beyond me.  A comment to a lens roadmap for the H mount, maybe emphasizing the partnership with Fuji?  Talk about aerial images, the new DJI Mavic Pro 2, but also the A6D.

I can wish right?

[eronald]

This is simply baseless speculation. There are a number of possible reasons why Hasselblad has not issued any info about an X2D. Let’s start with this possibility: Hasselblad took a huge hit on its credibility by prematurely announcing the X1D and then released it when it was barely ready just to get it out the door. Do you think they may have decided not to repeat that debacle? Another possibility is that they want to keep the specifics of their plans under wraps and have some surprises of their own up their sleeves. Fuji has announced that they won’t release the GFS 100S till mid-2019. Once the initial mania dies down about the Fuji announcement, Hasselblad has plenty of time to make its own announcement. It simply has to announce before the Fuji hits the streets. It’s not like the Fuji is shipping next week. We may even hear something from Hasselblad at PhotoExpo in NYC. To me, the least likely possible explanation is the one you have chosen, that the lack of some sort of announcement reflects something dire about Hasselblad’s condition.
We shall see what’s in store. In the meantime, there are three new XCD lenses for the X1D. The MTF charts for the 135mm lens with the 1.7 teleconverter reflect a spectacular level of performance, even with the teleconverter mounted.

BASLESS SPECULATION IS WHAT I DO HERE. IT IS WHAT THIS THREAD IS ABOUT. So accusing me of reading the tealeaves when I run a fortune-telling tent seems a bit redundant.  However I do usually start by evaluating the present as best I can before turning to the future. In this case, contrariwise of you reading of my words, I am pretty certain that Hasselblad is in perfect financial health as their parent DJI is very successful, and Hasselblad themselves have a new product line the XD which is selling well, with new lenses coming out that are eagerly awaited by the  customer base, as you point out.

Now when it comes to Photokina, people do make decisions based on what they see and hear. Trade fairs are held precisely so the big buyers and vendors get together and plan the near and medium term future. Anyone who doesn't speak out at the meeting gets passed over; that's why companies send their CEOs, product managers, lead programmers and camera engineers, and not mid-level salesmen. I know these people are there because I used to interview them; I have myself interviewed two past Hasselblad CEOS.

Hasselblad are for some reason unwilling to reply to the Fuji announcement even though the Photokina environment would make such a statement customary. I don't know what the reason is, but this has become a deafening silence. My own *baseless speculation* is that it is something to do with the 100MP sensor and their relationship to Sony. It is possible for instance that they may dump Sony and have a new Chinese or Korean vendor come in with a brand new medium format chip. Samsung could certainly do so if they wanted. 

Edmund