After Photokina Medium Format rumors (UPD. And The WINNAH is FUUUJIIII !!! )

[eronald]

My guess is no X1(2)D - 100 or GFX 100 till spring next year. They might announce the development, but as far as I know the sensor is available in very limited numbers and there are companies paying a premium for it.


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Sounds to me that Hassy might have a serious case of the Osborne problem them - killing your existing product by announcing the successor, while not being able to supply the successor.  Of course, Fuji can make money even on a low priced GFX 50R - but what will Hassy sell profiitably for the next few months?

Has Fuji tricked Hassy into a deadly marketing corner?

Edmund

Edmund

[narikin]

The new 40mm Zeiss Batis (for Sony) is being announced next week, and is widely leaked. Pretty big lens, and that's 'only' for FF35mm.

To hit the numbers (MTF, Distortion, CA) Zeiss/Sony are having to go for a Distagon formulation, which is not small. (interestingly the Otus range are called 'Apo Distagon' by Zeiss, so them too). Basically afaik, Distagon types get the light to enter the sensor cells more head-on, than it otherwise would with Biogon type formulation.

I too am in favor of cheap compact lenses, (who isn't?!) but we all have to recognise there is a trade off. I own the Plastic 50/1.8 for Canon and used it on a 5DSR at times because of its aberrations and corner funkiness. Nobody is saying Fuji will release a rubbish lens, just reminding to be aware a compact ~40mm equivalent will be a step below one not formulated under such design constraints. You (and I) may feel the trade off is well worth it. 

There are plenty of pancake lenses out there, from Canon's 40mm (amazingly compact, super cheap, but poor corners and very strong field curvature) to Large Format even - Nikkor's M View Camera series. It's great they exist. No debate about that.

[siddhaarta]

Ming (Hasselblad's Chief of Strategy) answered in his blog to a question about the rumored Hasselblad X2D:

"Actually, two years is a very short product cycle at this price point. I don’t think people who just invested would be happy at a replacement either…nor is the market large enough to support this rate of churn. So, those factors have to be taken into account when planning product…"

Make of that what you want.

[cgarnerhome]

Fuji has a great product offering with the GFX50.  I have no idea why people are focused on a 100MP sensor.  I’m more interested in a smaller and even lighter package with IBIS, greater lens selection and a better user interface.  I realize that from a marketing perspective they may want to offer 100MP camera, but I can’t imagine the incremental users they would gain would be worth it.

[narikin]

Ok, here's a random theory I'm going to throw in here for fun:

It's being confirmed that the GFX-100 is not arriving till Q2 next year. i.e. Spring, which has disappointed many people who were hoping for it this fall/ winter.  I happen to know that Phase have invited all their international dealers to Germany for a meeting over the next few days. i.e. now - right before Photokina. It can't be for the IQ4, as that is out there, announced and deposits taken. So... clearly something else is afoot - are Phase about to announce a surprise, like a completely new compact camera taking on Fuji and Hasselblad?  Here's the conspiracy bit... Phase are probably Sony's biggest customer ($ terms) by a long way, might they have got 3-6 month exclusive rights for the new 100mp BSI sensor and are going to release their own mirrorless body with it?!

Pure conjecture on my part, but... you never know!

[eronald]

Ok, here's a random theory I'm going to throw in here for fun:

It's being confirmed that the GFX-100 is not arriving till Q2 next year. i.e. Spring, which has disappointed many people who were hoping for it this fall/ winter.  I happen to know that Phase have invited all their international dealers to Germany for a meeting over the next few days. i.e. now - right before Photokina. It can't be for the IQ4, as that is out there, announced and deposits taken. So... clearly something else is afoot - are Phase about to announce a surprise, like a completely new compact camera taking on Fuji and Hasselblad?  Here's the conspiracy bit... Phase are probably Sony's biggest customer ($ terms) by a long way, might they have got 3-6 month exclusive rights for the new 100mp BSI sensor and are going to release their own mirrorless body with it?!

Pure conjecture on my part, but... you never know!

Everything is possible. What seems certain is that Sony can't make enough 100MP sensors at the moment to make everyone happy

Edmund

[Christopher]

I also wouldn’t bet on a “crop camera” camera from phase. First, I don’t think they have the Ressourcen to pull it off, second it would be super strange to tell everyone, your done with 44/33 and than announce something in that ballpark.

I expect something else from phase one at photokina, but don’t have a clue what it could be.

Regarding the Hasso/Fuji side: it sounds pretty clear from Ming quote that there won’t be a X2D this year. In addition, if one looks at all Fuji rumors there isn’t much more talk about the 100Mp version than an development announcement. (Here I wouldn’t be surprised if the announcement got cancelled if Fuji feels no real pressure to say anything)

We will all see pretty soo.




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[eronald]

I also wouldn’t bet on a “crop camera” camera from phase. First, I don’t think they have the Ressourcen to pull it off, second it would be super strange to tell everyone, your done with 44/33 and than announce something in that ballpark.

I expect something else from phase one at photokina, but don’t have a clue what it could be.

Regarding the Hasso/Fuji side: it sounds pretty clear from Ming quote that there won’t be a X2D this year. In addition, if one looks at all Fuji rumors there isn’t much more talk about the 100Mp version than an development announcement. (Here I wouldn’t be surprised if the announcement got cancelled if Fuji feels no real pressure to say anything)

We will all see pretty soo.




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The thing no one understands is why Fuji and Hassy would allow their current cash cow 50MP product line to be killed by a future 100MP announcement, if they cannot *make* the 100MP version.

My only explanation here of the how not the why is that they all got sandbagged by Sony pipelining a 100Mp chip they can't get. Fuji decided to chew the bullet an sell 50MP "rangefinders" for a while. Hassy's response may be a price slide.

Edmund

[BernardLanguillier]

They will have no choice but going fairly soon to 100mp because it is pretty obvious that we will have by summer/fall 2019 the a9r/Z9/R? that are likely to feature sensors in the 60~70mp range and damn fine lenses... that will make new purchases of 50mp small MF pretty much irrelevant.

Cheers,
Bernard

[cgarnerhome]

50MPs would not be irrelevant if I already owned one!  I suspect you are right in that there will continue to be a drive to more MPs.  I just think manufactures are pursuing smaller and smaller markets segments when they would be better off enhancing the capability of their current offerings.

[eronald]

They will have no choice but going fairly soon to 100mp because it is pretty obvious that we will have by summer/fall 2019 the a9r/Z9/R? that are likely to feature sensors in the 60~70mp range and damn fine lenses... that will make new purchases of 50mp small MF pretty much irrelevant.

Cheers,
Bernard

Bernard, Sony will keep supplying all its customers with the rope they need to throttle themselves witout quite dying:)
So count on a reasonably priced aka semi-extortionate 100MP chip supply appearing just before the 60MP 35mm chips hit the market.

Edmund

[BernardLanguillier]

Bernard, Sony will keep supplying all its customers with the rope they need to throttle themselves witout quite dying:)
So count on a reasonably priced aka semi-extortionate 100MP chip supply appearing just before the 60MP 35mm chips hit the market.

They will certainly try but Sony doesn’t control Canon nor Nikon anymore.

Cheers,
Bernard

[Bo_Dez]

Ok, here's a random theory I'm going to throw in here for fun:

It's being confirmed that the GFX-100 is not arriving till Q2 next year. i.e. Spring, which has disappointed many people who were hoping for it this fall/ winter.  I happen to know that Phase have invited all their international dealers to Germany for a meeting over the next few days. i.e. now - right before Photokina. It can't be for the IQ4, as that is out there, announced and deposits taken. So... clearly something else is afoot - are Phase about to announce a surprise, like a completely new compact camera taking on Fuji and Hasselblad?  Here's the conspiracy bit... Phase are probably Sony's biggest customer ($ terms) by a long way, might they have got 3-6 month exclusive rights for the new 100mp BSI sensor and are going to release their own mirrorless body with it?!

Pure conjecture on my part, but... you never know!

ooohhhh...this is juicy, well observed and interpreted too - well done. If they drop a 100MP mirrorless I will likely buy on pre order.

[Bo_Dez]

My money is on Narikin's observation and my Fuji GFX or Hasselblad X1D plans are very temporarily on hold. If there's no announcement at Photokina I will jump in on one of them.

Phase One would probably have the ability to get an exclusive on the 100BSI and that would really mess up Fuji and HBlad's plans. Touche. Well, we know for a fact that they already have it for the aerial camera.

Phase One really may be about to go nuclear with a Mirrorless offering and I'm here for it - Sign me up! (even though I'm still very angry about dropping Hasselblad H support!  )

Although it probably means a lot more spam from Doug. 

[eronald]

They will certainly try but Sony doesn’t control Canon nor Nikon anymore.

Cheers,
Bernard

Actually they do: Sony fullframe and Nikon fullframe 35 are the same sensors mostly, produced by Sony, and so whenever Sony and Canon make a new fullframe 35 Sony can use the same tech at a lower yield to run off a larger but profitable chip.

Edmund

[KLaban]

If Phase do go mirrorless I wonder if they'll also go competitive (on price)?

[araucaria]

If Phase do go mirrorless I wonder if they'll also go competitive (on price)?

Who will make the lenses for such camera? In contrast to phase fuji might have more margin on their system because it has the ability to design and produce their one lenses plus their own large camera factories.

[eronald]

Who will make the lenses for such camera? In contrast to phase fuji might have more margin on their system because it has the ability to design and produce their one lenses plus their own large camera factories.

Subcontractors make things, real people make money.
Chloe Kardashian is 20 or so, worth $900 000 000, and she never made a lipstick herself in her life.
It's a new set of rules out there.

Edmund

[matted]

Who will make the lenses for such camera? In contrast to phase fuji might have more margin on their system because it has the ability to design and produce their one lenses plus their own large camera factories.

Although branded Schneider, don’t Phase still produce their own lenses in Japan at the old Mamiya factory?

I’m thinking that when and if Phase do go mirrorless, they do it with a “full frame” 645 chip to differentiate themselves over Fuji and Hasselblad, and will still command the price premium. Earlier this year I received a questionnaire from Phase basically testing the mirrorless waters with their customer base to see how much they would spend on one... I’m certain they are in some form of development right now for a mirrorless system and I’m not sure why people don’t think they have the resources to do it if Hasselblad could pull it off.... It has been ages since the XF came out and the last feature release for it. There is no way those designers and R&D people are sitting idle.

[ErikKaffehr]

They will have no choice but going fairly soon to 100mp because it is pretty obvious that we will have by summer/fall 2019 the a9r/Z9/R? that are likely to feature sensors in the 60~70mp range and damn fine lenses... that will make new purchases of 50mp small MF pretty much irrelevant.

Cheers,
Bernard

Hi Bernard,

What makes you think so?

Best regards
Erik