After Photokina Medium Format rumors (UPD. And The WINNAH is FUUUJIIII !!! )

[eronald]

I guess Phase One already has a camera based on the 100MP BSI chip, except it's an aerial camera, sold for a lot of money in small numbers:

 https://www.fujirumors.com/phase-one-medium-format-camera-with-100-mp-backside-illuminated-44x33mm-of-fujifilm-gfx-100s-coming-june-2018/

By the time the 100MP hits the mainstream - 2019 second quarter is my guess - the chip will be old tech, and as Bernard states correctly it will have trouble competing against the autumn 2019 crop of 35mm dSLRs, which will have computational photography features that rely on new chip abilities.

Anyone with an iPhone XS or a Google Pixel can see how effective computational photography is in practice. My iPhone will even measure things for me, which is something many pros eg. in real estate or cultural applications, will find a killer feature. .

Basically, Fuji is going to preannounce, in order to get people to stay with their lenses and buy into their system.

Edmund

PS. Interestingly, Phase can probably use very cheap "engineering grade" sample chips for aerial imaging, because one can always take a few images in quick succession, and chip defects won't impact the same subject regions. In "photography" applications one often only gets the luxury of a single shutter click. This is why Phase's using this chip ahead of everyone else means very little about the actual availability for broader applications.

Edmund

[Bo_Dez]

Who will make the lenses for such camera? In contrast to phase fuji might have more margin on their system because it has the ability to design and produce their one lenses plus their own large camera factories.

It would likely be Schneider.

But there is also another very iconic German lens manufacturer starting with Z that don't have any affiliation with a Medium Format company at present...

Then there's the peeps you never thought of - No one had really heard of Nittoh before the X1D.

[Paul2660]

Stranger things have happened, but I will surprised if P1 brings a 100MP cropped sensor to market, after all of their focus on "full frame".  But anything is possible these days.

Paul C

[Doug Peterson]

Although branded Schneider, don’t Phase still produce their own lenses in Japan at the old Mamiya factory?

Phase One's Schneider LS Blue Ring lenses are designed as a collaboration between Phase One and Schneider lens designers. They are produced in the Phase One Japan factory (formerly Mamiya). They are QC'd by both Phase One and Schneider.

I’m not sure why people don’t think they have the resources to do it if Hasselblad could pull it off.... It has been ages since the XF came out and the last feature release for it. There is no way those designers and R&D people are sitting idle.

"Ages" eh?

Significant releases for the XF body
- XF: June 2015
- XF FU1: October 2015
- XF FU2: March 2016
- XF FU3: October 2016
- XF V Grip: January 2017
- XF FU4: September 2017
- XF HAP-2: September 2017

Also released during that same time period:
- Schneider 35LS Blue Ring (new design)
- Schneider 45LS Blue Ring (new design)
- Schneider 150LS f/2.8 Blue Ring (new design)
- Blue Ring versions of the 55, 80, 110, 75-150, 120, 150/3.5 and 240 lenses (new physical chassis and electronics, same design)
- IQ3 80mp (new sensor)
- IQ3 100mp (new sensor)
- IQ3 100mp Trichromatic (new sensor filter)
- IQ3 100mp Achromatic (new sensor)
- IQ4 100mp Trichromatic (new platform)
- IQ4 150mp Achromatic (new sensor, new platform)
- IQ4 150mp (new sensor, new platform)
- Capture One 9, 9.1, 9.2 and 9.3
- Capture One 10, 10.1, 10.2, 10.3
- Capture One 11, 11.1, 11.2

I expect that when the IQ4 ships in a few weeks that the XF will receive a Feature Update.

Notably during this time (actually dating back to 2008) Phase One has been profitable and the R+D team has been growing.

I'm not saying whether or not Phase One R+D time/money is going into a mirrorless system. I honestly do not know. But it's very clear from the list above that if time/money is going into a mirrorless system it is in addition to significant ongoing investment in the XF. Compare and contrast this list to the releases of any other medium format player over this time period.

If Phase One enters the mirrorless market they will have plenty of resources to do it right. If Phase One chooses not to enter the mirrorless market it will not be because they lack the resources to do so.

I'd direct you to The Road to the IQ4, published on this site.

[BJL]

Edmund,
    Sony already has the 150MP sensor in announced Phase One products, and the 100MP 44x33 uses the same pixel size and was announced with the same 2018 arrival as its big brother. On what basis do you predict it not coming till Fall 2019?

Though I can see the still young 44x33 mirrorless systems not going to 100MP bodies so quickly. Has Pentax got an opportunity?!

Also, since when is a higher pixel count needed to justify a more expensive larger format camera? What happened to the benefits of larger photo-sites and using higher f-stops with less aberrations to get a given DOF and so on? I address this to those who are (justifiably) enthusiastic about 24MP, 36x24mm format bodies!

[Joe Towner]

Though I can see the still young 44x33 mirrorless systems not going to 100MP bodies so quickly. Has Pentax got an opportunity?!

I'm confident in saying that Pentax isn't doing anything with their 645z line.  I can't even tell if Pentax knows they make those cameras.  Their sales team hasn't a clue, their dealers are getting restless.

[eronald]

As a professional rumormonger, i kinda mix the chatter on the net. Which is fairly unanimous in stating none of the usual suspects is in the position of selling a 100mp in volume today, cheaply. An expensive 100 Mp H might be possible, as Phase have a 100Mp aerial based on the crop fhip.

Edmund

Edmund,
    Sony already has the 150MP sensor in announced Phase One products, and the 100MP 44x33 uses the same pixel size and was announced with the same 2018 arrival as its big brother. On what basis do you predict it not coming till Fall 2019?

Though I can see the still young 44x33 mirrorless systems not going to 100MP bodies so quickly. Has Pentax got an opportunity?!

Also, since when is a higher pixel count needed to justify a more expensive larger format camera? What happened to the benefits of larger photo-sites and using higher f-stops with less aberrations to get a given DOF and so on? I address this to those who are (justifiably) enthusiastic about 24MP, 36x24mm format bodies!

[matted]

Phase One's Schneider LS Blue Ring lenses are designed as a collaboration between Phase One and Schneider lens designers. They are produced in the Phase One Japan factory (formerly Mamiya). They are QC'd by both Phase One and Schneider.

Thanks for confirming this. Pretty much what I thought!

"Ages" eh?

Significant releases for the XF body
- XF: June 2015
- XF FU1: October 2015
- XF FU2: March 2016
- XF FU3: October 2016
- XF V Grip: January 2017
- XF FU4: September 2017
- XF HAP-2: September 2017

Also released during that same time frame:

**snip**

Thanks for your thoughts, but I stand by what I said (even if it was hyperbolic). One could argue that the digital back and Capture 1 Pro updates don’t “count” in this regard as they were doing those while designing the XF in the first place, although the IQ4 development was more significant than regular back/sensor updates (and very well could have eaten up the cycles I mention below).

When you look at the actual dates of the XF feature updates I think it’s clear that they have become less frequent since year 1 of the XF. Is the whole wan responsivle for designing the XF working on those feature updates? I doubt that. Those cycles have clearly gone elsewhere. Perhaps the IQ4 development, lenses, and aerial/industrial/repro models can account for all of them. Who knows?

I do think the community has been quick to discount Phase’s ability to develop a new platform should they wish to and that that pessimism is unfounded. I also don’t think that Phase is doomed if they don’t release a mirror less mode as some seem to think, although it would be incredibly wise if they do. They only stand to lose out.

[eronald]

I do think the community has been quick to discount Phase’s ability to develop a new platform should they wish to and that that pessimism is unfounded. I also don’t think that Phase is doomed if they don’t release a mirror less mode as some seem to think, although it would be incredibly wise if they do. They only stand to lose out.

Of course Phase can release a mirrorless model in a week if they want to - it's just a box with a lensmount some control buttons and maybe an EVF, all the smarts get pushed into the back and the lens contains the leaf shutter.

However, the community is by now tired of staring at $50K cameras. These are out of most individual's pricerange, and do not fascinate as much as the high-end items that are affordable like the XD1.

Edmund

[Bo_Dez]

Of course Phase can release a mirrorless model in a week if they want to - it's just a box with a lensmount some control buttons and maybe an EVF, all the smarts get pushed into the back and the lens contains the leaf shutter.

However, the community is by now tired of staring at $50K cameras. These are out of most individual's pricerange, and do not fascinate as much as the high-end items that are affordable like the XD1.

Edmund

As a "professional rumourmonger" I would have thought you'd read X1D enough times to notice the syntax is not XD1. 

[eronald]

As a "professional rumourmonger" I would have thought you'd read X1D enough times to notice the syntax is not XD1. 

Thank you for the unpaid fact-checking, I will try to keep that in mind.
How do you think Hassy should name the successor?

Edmund

[Bo_Dez]

Thank you for the unpaid fact-checking, I will try to keep that in mind.
How do you think Hassy should name the successor?

Edmund

  It's a great thread by the way!

I'm not sure if it will be a X2D-50c, an X1D-50c mk2, an X1D-100c, or it could, possibly be something else and use a custom chip 50-70MP that we are unaware of.

The X1D-50c has sold out in many places, it's listed as discontinued at some, and is now sold out on the Hasselblad Online Shop. They aren't going to let such a successful product sit for 6 months with no inward revenue.

So I think a new model is imminent but given that Ming has been answering comments about an X2D-100c like "people need to ask if they need 100MP" then it's possible they have created a custom chip that is 50, 60, 70MP etc.

Also people seem to have forgotten that the V1D may become a reality. At the last Photokina it was spoken of as a real possibility in Hasselblad's future and that worked on the premise of a 100MP sensor cropped down to 70MP square. The prototype was actually quite elaborate.

in the comments of Ming's own site he has been alluding to a replacement for the CFV-50c and based on several comments it seems the V1D could be that replacement.

Maybe we will see a V1D-50c or a V1D-100c instead of an X1D or X2D. That would be a way for Hasselblad to differentiate from Fujifilm on form factor at this point in time and also capitalise on modularity (and catch up with Fuji on that side of things).

Either of these seems not too much of a stretch of the imagination based on what info we have.

[eronald]

It's a great thread by the way!

I'm not sure if it will be a X2D-50c, an X1D-50c mk2, an X1D-100c, or it could, possibly be something else and use a custom chip 50-70MP that we are unaware of.

The X1D-50c has sold out in many places, it's listed as discontinued at some, and is now sold out on the Hasselblad Online Shop. They aren't going to let such a successful product sit for 6 months with no inward revenue.

So I think a new model is imminent but given that Ming has been answering comments about an X2D-100c like "people need to ask if they need 100MP" then it's possible they have created a custom chip that is 50, 60, 70MP etc.

Also people seem to have forgotten that the V1D may become a reality. At the last Photokina it was spoken of as a real possibility in Hasselblad's future and that worked on the premise of a 100MP sensor cropped down to 70MP square. The prototype was actually quite elaborate.

The CFC-50c was discontinued long ago but Ming had said it wasn't dead. But later added that it seemed the old V platform was still exceptionally popular, it might not be the best platform to work with in the future (paraphrasing). That does allude to a V1D sort of product too.

Maybe we will see a V1D-50c or a V1D-100c instead of an X1D or X2D. That would be a way for Hasselblad to differentiate from Fujifilm at this point in time and also capitalise on modularity.

Either of these seems not too much of a stretch of the imagination based on what info we have.

A V1D that works with the H lenses would be an interesting pivot, especially if the price can slowly be brought down to where arty students can use it.

The square is a really interesting format. When sketching I always need to decide whether to go landscape or portrait, and often find in the end that an Instagram square crop was better than either choice; in fact in the cases where I have deliberately sketched in a square I have found it works well. Of course, I did like my Hassy V, which I used as a travel camera, shooting Fujichrome 1600.

Scarcity of the X1D-50 and issues with chip supplies  would imply that they may need to release an X1DII-50, with some ergonomic  issues resolved. But they had better get the pricing right if Fuji is threatening a $10K 100MP camera

I guess we'll know in a few days. Information will probably "leak" before announcements anyway. Fuji seems to be using leaks for viral marketing

Edmund

[Bo_Dez]

A V1D that works with the H lenses would be an interesting pivot, especially if the price can slowly be brought down to where arty students can use it.

Scarcity of the X1D-50 and issues with chip supplies  would imply that they may need to release an X1DII-50, with some ergonomic  issues resolved. But they had better get the pricing right if Fuji is threatening a $10K 100MP camera

I guess we'll know in a few days. Information will probably "leak" before announcements anyway. Fuji seems to be using leaks for viral marketing

Edmund

It's hard to know where Hasselblad is in the pecking order with the 100MP sensor, so they may indeed choose to focus on the existing model until they get the new sensors to the point where they can ship properly.

It really could be possible that Phase One has a short term exclusive on it for an upcoming model.

It feels like Fuji at this stage are in full control, they are well prepared and milking the PR for every drop with the incoming GFX R and also the development announcement of the GFX-100. I'm looking at them as a possibility and a safe bet and that will be a decision I will likely work with for at least the next decade. I would prefer the Hasselblad and I hope they don't keep their cards too close to their chest - this is a critical time to set the tone for the future and I will be personally making a decision on Phase One, Hasselblad or Fuji  (in order of preference at this stage) in the very near future.

I would absolutely without a doubt prefer a Phase One mirrorless though and the thought of that is exciting. But while I like the idea of it the most, the reality of it is of course questionable.

[ErikKaffehr]

Hi,

Designing a sensor is a three year process. I don't think many companies would do that for a small market, like MFD. In CCD times there was Kodak and DALSA, now we have Sony as chip vendor. I don't think they will develop smaller density sensors. Making a 70 MP and a 100 MP sensor for a small market just doubles the effort.

It is quite true that Leica has a sensor made for them, but my guess is that Hasselblad would not go that route.

Best regards
Erik

It's a great thread by the way!

I'm not sure if it will be a X2D-50c, an X1D-50c mk2, an X1D-100c, or it could, possibly be something else and use a custom chip 50-70MP that we are unaware of.

The X1D-50c has sold out in many places, it's listed as discontinued at some, and is now sold out on the Hasselblad Online Shop. They aren't going to let such a successful product sit for 6 months with no inward revenue.

So I think a new model is imminent but given that Ming has been answering comments about an X2D-100c like "people need to ask if they need 100MP" then it's possible they have created a custom chip that is 50, 60, 70MP etc.

Also people seem to have forgotten that the V1D may become a reality. At the last Photokina it was spoken of as a real possibility in Hasselblad's future and that worked on the premise of a 100MP sensor cropped down to 70MP square. The prototype was actually quite elaborate.

in the comments of Ming's own site he has been alluding to a replacement for the CFV-50c and based on several comments it seems the V1D could be that replacement.

Maybe we will see a V1D-50c or a V1D-100c instead of an X1D or X2D. That would be a way for Hasselblad to differentiate from Fujifilm on form factor at this point in time and also capitalise on modularity (and catch up with Fuji on that side of things).

Either of these seems not too much of a stretch of the imagination based on what info we have.

[Bo_Dez]

Everyone keeps saying MFD is a small market. It WAS a small market. $40K cameras are and will remain a small market and will likely shrink even more.

But MF was once a very large pro market, it was a standard. Currents trends provide a new found affordability and an increasing affordability will expand the market greatly.

This new GFXR is about to take that to a whole new level.

Hasselblad following Leica on a custom sensor is possible but I agree the likelihood is lower that them using an off the shelf unit.

[eronald]

Erik,

 The way this works is companies already have sensors, they just make a larger version. It's a bit like making a larger or a smaller carpet.

 It got much easier now since in CCD designs you needed to transfer analog signals through a big part of the chip to readout, implying very careful design, and now you have on-chip column converters and shorter signal paths.

 The issues with stitching the big dimensions etc remain, but AFAIK you can still extend upwards from an existing design.

 So we will see more companies slowly come into the big chip market. It is rumored that Samsung are supplying the new Panasonic fullframe chip, which would imply that they could probably make an MF chip if they wanted to.

 I think the site everyone reads is http://image-sensors-world.blogspot.com

Edmund

Hi,

Designing a sensor is a three year process. I don't think many companies would do that for a small market, like MFD. In CCD times there was Kodak and DALSA, now we have Sony as chip vendor. I don't think they will develop smaller density sensors. Making a 70 MP and a 100 MP sensor for a small market just doubles the effort.

It is quite true that Leica has a sensor made for them, but my guess is that Hasselblad would not go that route.

Best regards
Erik

[Bo_Dez]

Hasselblad wanted a 6x6 sensor but Sony wouldn't make it for them. It just depends on how much they want 6x6 to be their thing that depends wether or not they want to go custom rather than off the shelf. They could have been developing this longer than 3 years.

[eronald]

Hasselblad wanted a 6x6 sensor but Sony wouldn't make it for them. It just depends on how much they want 6x6 to be their thing that depends wether or not they want to go custom rather than off the shelf. They could have been developing this longer than 3 years.

The uncropped  square is not much use for magazines, but it is a nice format for maybe 15 or 20% of portrait, art and architecture images, and for some people it could become a style. I think it plays well on walls.

Going 54x54 would give Hassy a look very far from cellphones, and allow the arty crowd to make a statement, it might be a smart move if they already have the lenses in the H-system and old V system and just need to create a body. Also, Alpa has lenses which would go well with a lager sensor.


Edmund

[Bo_Dez]

I would love 6x6 digital. I would think it would obviously have an autocrop/viewfinder mask function too though of course.

I shoot magazines and they run square images all the time. traditionally, 6x6 has been favoured for it's cropping flexibility. Magazines run what the photographer shoots and they book the photographer for what ever it is they do.