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rainer_v

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« Reply #40 on: July 30, 2009, 11:03:11 am »

Quote from: Mark_Tuttle
Prices out of "dentist" range, and surely high enough to make anyone except a Citi derivatives trader blink.  Bernie Madoff probably had two on a waiting list, so if anyone wants to step up ....

since longer times the things are going crazy and unappetizing for my taste in the mf business.
not only on the leica side, but i hold my bet that the s2 will mean the end of this formerly fantastic company.
this will be the second new system which will die before it is completed .....
why they didnt spend their millions in improving their r system or even the m? now it could be an amazing system with such money behind.
instead that they have now three systems, all not entirely ready,- at least if you dont valuate heavy bugs as the ir bug in the m as unique collector features ....
i dont get it which people are giving the advises to this companies, or to whom they listen too.
not only bankers and brokers should learn the one digit 1x1 from the beginning again.
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diuser

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« Reply #41 on: July 30, 2009, 11:15:46 am »

Many of those systems will go, boxes unopended, into the safes of rich Japanese collectors.
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asf

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« Reply #42 on: July 30, 2009, 11:17:02 am »

One well known investment bank just recently reported very respectable 2nd quarter earnings. Large bonuses were paid.

The recipients of that largesse are one of the types of people that will buy this camera. The "aimed at the pro market" concept is a plus for them, the high price reinforces it. There's nothing wrong with being a well-heeled enthusiast. Dealers love them.  

I don't see why pros complain about the price of a camera literally most  would really never use.

It would be very interesting to get Ken Hansen's opinion on this matter.
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cmi

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« Reply #43 on: July 30, 2009, 11:24:47 am »

Quote from: asf
One well known investment bank just recently reported very respectable 2nd quarter earnings. Large bonuses were paid.

The recipients of that largesse are one of the types of people that will buy this camera. The "aimed at the pro market" concept is a plus for them, the high price reinforces it. There's nothing wrong with being a well-heeled enthusiast. Dealers love them.  

I don't see why pros complain about the price of a camera literally most  would really never use.

It would be very interesting to get Ken Hansen's opinion on this matter.


And the 2 or 3 pros who use it will be one more selling argument for these enthusiasts. I can see how this camera would appeal to the rich enthusiast. Its different, not everybody can afford it, its made to be perfect. Exactly right for a certain clientel.
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TMARK

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« Reply #44 on: July 30, 2009, 12:15:19 pm »

Some random thoughts:

I just bought my neighbor's 2006 Porsche Boxter S, 3600 miles, for WAY less than the "cheap" S2 body. Its eye surgeon former owner is a Leica collector.

I just hope the S2 doesn't kill Leica before the M9 comes out.  That would be a shame.

Maybe for fine arts applications, it could replace a Mamiya 7, but for commerce the 5d2 is overkill, the D3x is just insane. At these prices I don't see the commercial application.  I could see fashion shooters liking it, but most rent.  I doubt I'll get flyers advertising S2 packages from Fotocare/Calumet.

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dseelig

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« Reply #45 on: July 30, 2009, 12:36:04 pm »

I do not want to talk for Ken but I would bet it would be along the lines of "this is crazy."
David
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bcooter

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« Reply #46 on: July 30, 2009, 01:40:06 pm »

Quote from: gwhitf
I just ran the basic math for a pro photographer, and this is my package, in order to responsibly walk into a basic job:

Two of the cheapo version bodies; basic warranty; no handgrip; three cheapo version lenses: $65,300.00.

("But oh wait, I could LEASE them, right? So that makes them free, right? Wonder what's the Monthly Lease Payment on $65,300.00...? I'm sure someone here could tell us.")

And they promise the camera in September, but then the truth comes out, that other necessary items are not til January 2010? (Did anybody read "The Boy That Cried Wolf"..?)


Your not that guy.

Your not Leica's target market.  

Your a refurbished p45+ on a used H2 guy so you can get something from rental if you have to, process in software that works (most of the time), tethering that works (most of the time) and a price that is not retail (all of the time).

Your a gotta have a backup up camera type of guy, gotta get stuff out overnight type of guy and gotta make a profit from what you buy, so no you are not the intended market.

Because if Lecia was going to target you or any professional, even at these lottery winner prices they would have all the lenses ready NOW, a real tethering solution, live view, and a written in blood pledge to put these cameras in every major rental house in every major market.

I'm sure there we be some well known by name pros that are featured using a Leica, probably one of the Greenfields (I think there is three of them right?) and they will be videotaped using a Leica shooting a sad looking little 17 year old on white no seam, or a b celebrity and they'll say something like, "the lenses are so sharp and the handling of the camera is so elegant, it is an organic extension of my wonderful and creative thought process", but no you are not the Leica type of guy.

The thing is I do know that guy that would/could buy this camera and he won't.  He's rich, a celeb, love cameras, owns every leica M lens ever made and could buy this camera in a heart beat, but he doesn't see the point, because even with all his Leica's he shoots mostly with a Canon 5d or a Nikon because the images are in focus and since he travels the world nobody is going to lift a cheap 5d out of his suitcase.

But I do predict they will sell this camera and I even believe the price point will help.  Had they sold it for $10,000 then it's just a few steps ahead of the Nikon, which holds no cache when you go to the country club and somebody asks how much, you can't just say 10 large, cause at Westchester, 10 large is only the mandatory valet fees.  Saying 50,000 dead prezs gets some attention, even in the land of AIG bonuses.

They are also smart for not adding live-view, or video, cause then maybe a real working professional might buy it and real working professionals are a pain in the ass because they expect things to really work.

It even works for Leica that the Phase One/Leaf/Mamiya  faithful will start screaming, "see, see, my peefourtysomething plus with sensor double plus technology,  has more resolution and only costs 1/2 of the Leica, cause the Mamiya is like driving a Ford Taurus and well we all know where the valet's park Fords at Westchester.  

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antonyoung

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« Reply #47 on: July 30, 2009, 02:07:59 pm »

Quote from: hcubell
Before responding to that question one way or the other, don't you think it would make sense to actually use the camera on an actual shoot(or two or three) and see first hand how it handles,  what the files look like, and how the post-workflow functions?

Nope, I don't think it makes any sense at all. There is no possible scenario where it would make more sense than existing solutions for me, my business, or anybody I know at that price point. Is there for you? For anybody you know?

I'm a guy who buys very expensive systems, I should think I would be part of their theoretical market. For me there is no handling that would be that good, there is no file quality that would be that good, and there is no workflow that would be good enough to justify it over existing cheaper alternatives.

And besides I already know the answers- the handling will not be as good as Canon or Nikon, the files will be nice but not as nice as the files files from an Alpa (which you could buy with the savings to compliment your H or Phase body), and the workflow will be Lightroom, unless they managed to salvage something with Phase and can bundle C1.

This is the system that will kill Leica, I'll be surprised if they move a hundred of these bodies before going belly up.
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pschefz

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« Reply #48 on: July 30, 2009, 02:22:19 pm »

Quote from: georgl
The P40+-Kit costs 25000$
The H3D-39-Kit costs 22000$

maybe those are list prices....i get demo and refurb offers (with full warranty) for almost half of that....and i think that is still too much for these systems...

i really think the S2 will be a great system but the price points of great systems have changed dramatically over the last couple of years and especially in the last year....ask franke heidecke and leaf about that....

the problem is that even at 10000 for the body and 15000 for the kit people would not have jumped on it....
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ndevlin

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« Reply #49 on: July 30, 2009, 02:27:28 pm »

I had that same sinking feeling that many have expressed when I first saw the prices, but on closer reflection I wonder if it's reasonable.

In Canada, a new Phasemiya with a P45+ and an 80mm lens costs $30,000.  A 28mm is $5500, a 45mm is $2500 and a 150mm is $3800.  

While the price of the Leica is in-and-of-itself very high, the difference compare to similar MFD systems is not as dramatic.

Since I would bet my firstborn that the Leica with kick the s^@! out of the Phase and Hassy systems on handling, and maybe even image quality, I'm not sure that a lot of pros won't be tempted to take a look.  

We seem to have forgotten very quickly that not so long ago a pedestrian little 39MP back was costing people upwards of $40K. It's only the development of a viable second-hand market that has made these tools even remotely accessible for non-pros.

Moreover, Phase seems to be doing fairly brisk business in the P65 backs, which are astronomically expensive.

Leica glass is special and they finally have a platform that will really exploit that to its fullest.  

There are a lot of dentists and IT millionaires who will buy the S2. If a reasonable number of pros try it and like it, this camera could fly.

For the sake of the industry, I sure hope it does.

- N.

ps. that said, I think Leica would have been smarter to price the S2 body near-cost, and put as many on the street as possible. The money has to be in the lenses...
« Last Edit: July 30, 2009, 02:36:31 pm by ndevlin »
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gwhitf

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« Reply #50 on: July 30, 2009, 02:37:38 pm »

Quote from: bcooter
Your not that guy.
Your not Leica's target market.

Somebody should go into YouTube and steal that Louis Vuitton video commercial, and replace the voiceover with "Leica S2: Where Will It Take You?".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5xCGZuvhWI

Or have a multiple choice ad:

"The new Leica S2. Is it:

A. A fashion accessory?
B. A status symbol?
C. An actual camera that's made to take photographs?

I wouldn't have a photographer in the ads -- that's way too Blue Collar. I'd have Sean Connery, or that James Bond actor. But then, they'd remove the camera from the leather man-purse over their shoulder, and bring it up to their eye, but they'd be holding in that trademark "I've never taken a photograph in my life" kind of way, and they'd have to do another take. You know the way -- grasping the body with both hands, with no hands on the lens at all.

I freely admit, it just hits a pet peeve with me. Rich Posers trying to get laid, or trying to impress their boss.

I have a good friend that keeps a glass-faced chest that's full of Leicas. She has four of five lens of each focal length. But what does she use when it's time to actually shoot a photograph? Her 5D, because of the Usability Factor.

All that R&D, and all that effort, and all that hair-splitting design accuracy, only to have some gold-chain-wearing Guido, composing with everything dead center, and shooting sunsets in Monte Carlo, (and probably even forgetting to put a card in the camera). If it wasn't so sad, it would be funny. But it's not.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2009, 02:48:21 pm by gwhitf »
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feppe

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« Reply #51 on: July 30, 2009, 02:49:08 pm »

Quote from: gwhitf
All that R&D, and all that effort, and all that hair-splitting design accuracy, only to have some gold-chain-wearing Guido, composing with everything dead center, and shooting sunsets in Monte Carlo, (and probably even forgetting to put a card in the camera). If it wasn't so sad, it would be funny. But it's not.

Give credit where credit is due: it's thanks to those "Guidos" Leica sells the S2 for 16k EUR instead of 26k EUR  This goes for other high-end camera manufacturers as well.

cmi

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« Reply #52 on: July 30, 2009, 02:53:07 pm »

Quote from: gwhitf
...All that R&D, and all that effort, and all that hair-splitting design accuracy, only to have some gold-chain-wearing Guido, composing with everything dead center, and shooting sunsets in Monte Carlo,...

The design effort is just the prereq. The benefit for these guys is that they can claim in all honesty they have a superior system. German quality.
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ErikKaffehr

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« Reply #53 on: July 30, 2009, 02:55:26 pm »

Hi,

Yes, but consider some differences:

1) The MFDB is more flexible, you can remove the back and put on something else.
2) The Leica may have better tolerances because it's not built as a modular system.
3) Leica may have better lenses
4) Leica may have better auto focus

So the MFDB is more flexible while the Leica may actuall by better ;-)

Best regards
Erik

Quote from: ndevlin
I had that same sinking feeling that many have expressed when I first saw the prices, but on closer reflection I wonder if it's reasonable.

In Canada, a new Phasemiya with a P45+ and an 80mm lens costs $30,000.  A 28mm is $5500, a 45mm is $2500 and a 150mm is $3800.  

While the price of the Leica is in-and-of-itself very high, the difference compare to similar MFD systems is not as dramatic.

Since I would bet my firstborn that the Leica with kick the s^@! out of the Phase and Hassy systems on handling, and maybe even image quality, I'm not sure that a lot of pros won't be tempted to take a look.  

We seem to have forgotten very quickly that not so long ago a pedestrian little 39MP back was costing people upwards of $40K. It's only the development of a viable second-hand market that has made these tools even remotely accessible for non-pros.

Moreover, Phase seems to be doing fairly brisk business in the P65 backs, which are astronomically expensive.

Leica glass is special and they finally have a platform that will really exploit that to its fullest.  

There are a lot of dentists and IT millionaires who will buy the S2. If a reasonable number of pros try it and like it, this camera could fly.

For the sake of the industry, I sure hope it does.

- N.

ps. that said, I think Leica would have been smarter to price the S2 body near-cost, and put as many on the street as possible. The money has to be in the lenses...
« Last Edit: July 30, 2009, 02:55:58 pm by ErikKaffehr »
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bcooter

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« Reply #54 on: July 30, 2009, 02:58:54 pm »

Quote from: gwhitf
A. A fashion accessory?
B. A status symbol?
C. An actual camera that's made to take photographs?

I wouldn't have a photograp


Do you know what I hate about the digital age of cameras?

They don't last long enough to get beat up looking.  

They got no personality.

I loved the look of my old Nikons, with the brassing, the dent in the pentaprism, the tripod scratches on the bottom and those worn marks where your hands gripped the lenses.

I could load and work those cameras after a 4 day tequila and peyote bender and knew every knob, every single control better than I knew my own right hand, which I know pretty well.

Those old cameras kind of looked  like Willie Nelson's guitar, one look and you knew those cameras had seen a lot of stuff, way too much to ever talk about in public.

Now I look at the Canons, the Nikons I use and even tough I'm hard on those type of cameras, they only last a few years and boom, they're traded in for the next newer, greater, faster.

In fact with digital it's the only time I've ever held onto a camera box.  I use to toss them out like a candy wrapper, never thinking that having the box, the manual, the neck strap, would add 20% of the value when I traded it in or sold it on consignment because with the film cameras, I never thought I WOULD trade them in or sell them on consignment.

I haven't even taken the clear plastic lcd cover off of my phase backs, because if they get scratched I'll probably lose another 4 grand in resale.  What a pussy way to live.

That's one of the reasons I don't e-bay that huge case of Contax's, they just look like serious business and anybody can say anything they want about the new leica or mamiya, or whatever is new, but they just don't look serious.

They're too pretty and clean.

BC
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asf

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« Reply #55 on: July 30, 2009, 03:08:41 pm »

Quote from: gwhitf
I wouldn't have a photographer in the ads -- that's way too Blue Collar. I'd have Sean Connery, or that James Bond actor. But then, they'd remove the camera from the leather man-purse over their shoulder, and bring it up to their eye, but they'd be holding in that trademark "I've never taken a photograph in my life" kind of way, and they'd have to do another take. You know the way -- grasping the body with both hands, with no hands on the lens at all.

I freely admit, it just hits a pet peeve with me. Rich Posers trying to get laid, or trying to impress their boss.

I have a good friend that keeps a glass-faced chest that's full of Leicas. She has four of five lens of each focal length. But what does she use when it's time to actually shoot a photograph? Her 5D, because of the Usability Factor.

All that R&D, and all that effort, and all that hair-splitting design accuracy, only to have some gold-chain-wearing Guido, composing with everything dead center, and shooting sunsets in Monte Carlo, (and probably even forgetting to put a card in the camera). If it wasn't so sad, it would be funny. But it's not.

This is the jealousy that will boost sales and make it more desirable to the intended market.

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hubell

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« Reply #56 on: July 30, 2009, 03:16:12 pm »

Quote from: antonyoung
Nope, I don't think it makes any sense at all. There is no possible scenario where it would make more sense than existing solutions for me, my business, or anybody I know at that price point. Is there for you? For anybody you know?

I disagree, if your alternative is medium format digital and not a Canon or Nikon. Once you are in nose bleed territory in terms of what medium format digital costs today, I personally would not let a premium of a few thousand more dollars stand in the way of what I thought was a better long-term solution. How much is it worth to you to work with an S2 body that was designed in 2008-2009 rather than a Mamiya AFD designed in 1984? I would pay a few more grand in a heartbeat for that. Do you want leaf shutter lenses in several focal lengths now or is just a rumour from Phase enough? (Sadly, I think I know the answer.)
Strangely, I think Leica missed the boat by offering the S2 with a 37.5mp sensor. Sure, it's more than enough for most applications, perhaps overkill, but if you are going to sell an uber-premium product, you should package it with an uber-premium 50-60mp sensor? 37.5mp is yesterday's news in this rarified atmosphere. Particularly if you are buying this camera for bragging rights, why get "only" 37.5mp. Do you want a Ferrari with a 300hp V-6 engine or a Ferrari with a 500hp V-12? I know what I would want.

antonyoung

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« Reply #57 on: July 30, 2009, 03:53:39 pm »

Quote from: hcubell
I disagree, if your alternative is medium format digital and not a Canon or Nikon. Once you are in nose bleed territory in terms of what medium format digital costs today, I personally would not let a premium of a few thousand more dollars stand in the way of what I thought was a better long-term solution. How much is it worth to you to work with an S2 body that was designed in 2008-2009 rather than a Mamiya AFD designed in 1984? I would pay a few more grand in a heartbeat for that. Do you want leaf shutter lenses in several focal lengths now or is just a rumour from Phase enough? (Sadly, I think I know the answer.)
Strangely, I think Leica missed the boat by offering the S2 with a 37.5mp sensor. Sure, it's more than enough for most applications, perhaps overkill, but if you are going to sell an uber-premium product, you should package it with an uber-premium 50-60mp sensor? 37.5mp is yesterday's news in this rarified atmosphere. Particularly if you are buying this camera for bragging rights, why get "only" 37.5mp. Do you want a Ferrari with a 300hp V-6 engine or a Ferrari with a 500hp V-12? I know what I would want.


I am, as you say, in the "nose bleed territory" and I wouldn't pay what they're asking. Since I have very often in the last few years paid for very expensive equipment that most people wouldn't buy, I'm wondering if I wouldn't buy it, who exactly will? You wanting a V-12 Ferrari or an S2 makes no difference. It's not a matter of whether you want it or not, it's whether you want it enough to put cash on the table for it.

I don't think it's a better long-term solution, because I don't think they will sell enough for the system to be viable, I think they've gone too far out on a limb and come up with a system that is too expensive too late, and I think it will turn out be a fatal mistake. Hey maybe I'm wrong, but I challenge you to find me an actual customer for one of these. Not a theoretical "rich dentist" or "corporate banker" that people think will be the market for this, but you, or your friend Mikey or George, who, rich dentist or not, is actually looking at the system and the prices and is going to buy one.
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hubell

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« Reply #58 on: July 30, 2009, 05:05:11 pm »

Quote from: antonyoung
I am, as you say, in the "nose bleed territory" and I wouldn't pay what they're asking. Since I have very often in the last few years paid for very expensive equipment that most people wouldn't buy, I'm wondering if I wouldn't buy it, who exactly will? You wanting a V-12 Ferrari or an S2 makes no difference. It's not a matter of whether you want it or not, it's whether you want it enough to put cash on the table for it.

You are missing my point. I am not looking to buy a $250k Ferarri, but if I were, I would go for the V-12 for an extra what, $50k, over a 300 hp V-6. If I were buying a Mercedes S Class for $90k, do you think I would skip the 4-Matic to save $5k and the nav system to save another $5k? Similarly, if I were in the market for a medium format digital camera with around 39mp, which I am not, I wouldn't buy the Phamiya P45+ or the H3D-39 over the S2 just to save a few thousand dollars, if, and it's a big if, I thought the S2 was a better overall solution for me. (I doubt it will be, but that's another matter.) I expect that the S2 will be a very tough sell for those who already own a medium format digital solution with a bunch of lenses. A new buyer in the 39mp niche is another matter.

antonyoung

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« Reply #59 on: July 30, 2009, 05:19:08 pm »

Quote from: hcubell
You are missing my point. I am not looking to buy a $250k Ferarri, but if I were, I would go for the V-12 for an extra what, $50k, over a 300 hp V-6. If I were buying a Mercedes S Class for $90k, do you think I would skip the 4-Matic to save $5k and the nav system to save another $5k? Similarly, if I were in the market for a medium format digital camera with around 39mp, which I am not, I wouldn't buy the Phamiya P45+ or the H3D-39 over the S2 just to save a few thousand dollars, if, and it's a big if, I thought the S2 was a better overall solution for me. (I doubt it will be, but that's another matter.) I expect that the S2 will be a very tough sell for those who already own a medium format digital solution with a bunch of lenses. A new buyer in the 39mp niche is another matter.

No, I heard you when you first drove up (as it were). You are saying that for a theoretical purchaser of medium format gear, what's a few thousand more when you're already spending that much? Listen, I spend a ton on gear. I'm saying as an actual purchaser of medium format gear, that I see no way to justify the purchase of an S2 system at those prices. I'm asking if you, anybody you know, or anybody on the forum is actually looking at the system and planning on buying it?
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