Covid Vaccine

[LesPalenik]

Just an update on the effect of the Moderna shot. (first).  My shoulder where I was injected still hurts a little especially when I raise my arm,  but not as much as this afternoon.  My wife complained earlier today that her shoulder hurt too.  We both had the shots at the same time.   It's been two days and six hours.

My shoulder has been hurting for a month now, and I haven't even been vaccinated yet. The left hip has been also bothering me lately.

[Alan Klein]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/21/opinion/covid-vaccine-ethics.html?referringSource=articleShare

Interesting moral dilemmas discussed.  The medical people say get the shot and don't turn it down figuring someone more vulnerable will get it.  Someone less vulnerable could get it.  There's no rhyme or reason to how they allocate the shots.  Of course, the article didn't address the scenario of using 2nd shots as 1st shots so more people get their first shots yet leaving many who might not get their 2nd shots.

My wife and I wound up with appointments for two first shots because we filed at a number of places.  I tried to get the extra switched to my friend.  But they wouldn't do it.  So we would up cancelling our second appts and they went back into a general pool at the hospital we had the second set of appts with.

Regarding pain, I woke up with none this morning.  So I'd say my shoulder hurt for about 2 1/2 days after the Moderna first shot.

[LesPalenik]

Just in time only works when the supplier or manufacturer can guarantee the supply.  That's not the case with the vaccine.  They're already out of doses and no one can get an appointment for a shot. 

If they can make and replenish the toilet paper rolls, they will be for sure be able to make new vaccines.  If anything, vaccine manufacturing has been steadily ramping up.     

[Alan Klein]

No of course I wouldn't.

But I see you now accept the logic of providing more people with a first shot. Progress.

Well, we're even.  I wouldn't give you my shot either.

But I don't understand your second sentence.  I still don't believe second shots should be given as first shots unless there's a guarantee they'll be enough second shots for the people who already got their first ones. 

They also should triage the selection process to include the oldest people first.  By opening it up to younger less vulnerable people, many older more vulnerable people are not getting their first shot.  That's just wrong knowing what we know about who's the most vulnerable. In my town, two-thirds of the people who died were over 65.

[Alan Klein]

My shoulder has been hurting for a month now, and I haven't even been vaccinated yet. The left hip has been also bothering me lately.

Both my hips have been hurting since I lifted my new 4x5 LF pack a couple of weeks ago.  I'm really worried I might have to give it up along with MF equipment as well. 

[Alan Klein]

If they can make and replenish the toilet paper rolls, they will be for sure be able to make new vaccines.  If anything, vaccine manufacturing has been steadily ramping up.     

New Jersey is receiving around 100,000 doses a week.  There are around 4 million Jerseyites currently qualified to get the vaccine.  That's 40 weeks or 10 months.  That's without considering second shots which will double that time frame.  It also doesn't include the rest of the people in the state who would qualify later in the rest of the groups.   I think we're in big trouble as is the rest of the world.  This reminds me of those videos decades ago of food shortages around the world where people would be fighting over rice bags being thrown from trucks in the town centre. 

[faberryman]

New Jersey is receiving around 100,000 doses a week.  There are around 4 million Jerseyites currently qualified to get the vaccine.  That's 40 weeks or 10 months.  That's without considering second shots which will double that time frame.  It also doesn't include the rest of the people in the state who would qualify later in the rest of the groups.   I think we're in big trouble as is the rest of the world.  This reminds me of those videos decades ago of food shortages around the world where people would be fighting over rice bags being thrown from trucks in the town centre.

So what you are saying is Operation Warp Speed is a rousing success. Thank God we had Trump spearheading the effort.

[LesPalenik]

Moderna chief is now saying that Covid-19 will stay with us forever. Should be good for the pharma companies.

“I believe SARS-Cov-2 is going to stay with humans forever,” Bancel said in an interview with Yahoo Finance Live. “We're going to have to have boosts adapted to a virus, like we have for flu. It's the same thing, they are both mRNA viruses, and we're going to have to live with it forever.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-is-going-to-stay-with-us-forever-moderna-ceo-224622557.html

[jrsforums]

Moderna chief is now saying that Covid-19 will stay with us forever. Should be good for the pharma companies.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-is-going-to-stay-with-us-forever-moderna-ceo-224622557.html

This is a surprise?  Scientist have been saying this was probable for almost a year.

[Alan Klein]

Moderna chief is now saying that Covid-19 will stay with us forever. Should be good for the pharma companies.

Since my first shot was with Moderna, it's comforting at least to know they're working on it.

[Alan Klein]

This is a surprise?  Scientist have been saying this was probable for almost a year.

The statement was made after they actually found a variant that has developed and is more dangerous than the current variety.  However, the CEO went on to say that a booster should be able to handle it.  I hope so. 

[jrsforums]

Since my first shot was with Moderna, it's comforting at least to know they're working on it.

I would expect that a booster would not be specific to only those who originally received the Moderna vaccine.

[jrsforums]

The statement was made after they actually found a variant that has developed and is more dangerous than the current variety.  However, the CEO went on to say that a booster should be able to handle it.  I hope so.

The expectation of it “being with us” was two fold.  First, the expectation that over time (still to be determine) the  benefit of the original vaccine would wear off and need a ‘boost’.

Second, as was said, RNA viruses, by their nature, mutate on almost a constant basis as they multiply.  The more hosts, the more replication, the more mutation.  Just based on the large numbers, some of those changes are going to ‘stick’.  The mRNA vaccine is meant to replicate certain aspects of the virus so the body learns to recognize and more quickly respond to it.  If the pieces ‘replicated’ change, the body will not recognize the new ‘variant’. 

The good news is the mRNA vaccines are polyclonal so can stand some level of changes....but only so many.  The other good news is the mRNA process allows the vaccine to be quickly updated.  Open question is what level of testing will be required to roll out.  Plus, how do you roll out a booster, while you are still inoculating first time people?  Quite a conundrum!!

[Alan Klein]

The expectation of it “being with us” was two fold.  First, the expectation that over time (still to be determine) the  benefit of the original vaccine would wear off and need a ‘boost’.

Second, as was said, RNA viruses, by their nature, mutate on almost a constant basis as they multiply.  The more hosts, the more replication, the more mutation.  Just based on the large numbers, some of those changes are going to ‘stick’.  The mRNA vaccine is meant to replicate certain aspects of the virus so the body learns to recognize and more quickly respond to it.  If the pieces ‘replicated’ change, the body will not recognize the new ‘variant’. 

The good news is the mRNA vaccines are polyclonal so can stand some level of changes....but only so many.  The other good news is the mRNA process allows the vaccine to be quickly updated.  Open question is what level of testing will be required to roll out.  Plus, how do you roll out a booster, while you are still inoculating first time people?  Quite a conundrum!!

I get this feeling that Covid will become like the regular flu.  New varieties every year going forward.  We may have to gear up to regularly updated boosters and annual injections for the populace.   Thank you, China. 

[faberryman]

I get this feeling that Covid will become like the regular flu.  New varieties every year going forward.  We may have to gear up to regularly updated boosters and annual injections for the populace.

I think that is because you read the news, where a lot of experts have said that, so it is not so much a feeling as a regurgitation.

[jrsforums]

COVID Vaccine Dosing FAQs

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/944321?src=mkm_covid_update_210126_MSCPEDIT&uac=361207FJ&impID=3154953&faf=1

[LesPalenik]

The expectation of it “being with us” was two fold.  First, the expectation that over time (still to be determine) the  benefit of the original vaccine would wear off and need a ‘boost’.

Second, as was said, RNA viruses, by their nature, mutate on almost a constant basis as they multiply.  The more hosts, the more replication, the more mutation.  Just based on the large numbers, some of those changes are going to ‘stick’.  The mRNA vaccine is meant to replicate certain aspects of the virus so the body learns to recognize and more quickly respond to it.  If the pieces ‘replicated’ change, the body will not recognize the new ‘variant’. 

The good news is the mRNA vaccines are polyclonal so can stand some level of changes....but only so many.  The other good news is the mRNA process allows the vaccine to be quickly updated.  Open question is what level of testing will be required to roll out.  Plus, how do you roll out a booster, while you are still inoculating first time people?  Quite a conundrum!!

Depends how serious the resurgence will be. A huge problem is that in the last year the hospitals drastically reduced surgeries and other treatments. If the C-19 virus stays around for the foreseeable future, this could affect for years the whole medical system and general population unless additional facilities are built.

[jrsforums]

The Biden administration faces what my colleague Robinson Meyer terms “a race of vaccination versus variants.” On one side: a country trying to halt the outbreak through vaccination. On the other: a virus swiftly accumulating mutations that could allow it to move even faster.

He explains: “The winner of this race will depend on three unknowns: mitigation, evolution, and vaccine distribution.”

1. Mitigation efforts (such as social distancing)

“Those high levels of ongoing infection make the standard tools of mitigation—social distancing, masks, and work-from-home orders—even more important to avoid continued deaths. Yet the allure of vaccination is beginning to stymie mitigation policy in some places.”
2. The evolution of the virus itself

“The most immediate risk is that these new variants cause another surge of infection, and death, before mass vaccination can increase the number of Americans with protective immunity.”
3. How quickly vaccines are distributed

“The U.S.’s vaccine supply … is uneven at the moment, although the Biden administration has vowed to invoke the Defense Production Act to strengthen the supply and distribution operation.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/01/biden-is-now-in-a-race-vaccination-vs-the-variants/617810/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=atlantic-daily-newsletter&utm_content=20210126&silverid=MzEwMTkwMTE4ODUwS0

[Alan Klein]

Depends how serious the resurgence will be. A huge problem is that in the last year the hospitals drastically reduced surgeries and other treatments. If the C-19 virus stays around for the foreseeable future, this could affect for years the whole medical system and general population unless additional facilities are built.

If medicine and vaccines are developed to treat those infected better or prevent infection in the first place, hospitalizations may not be required to the same extent.  We are better at it now than when COvid 19 first hit.

Also, and this may be morbid, the large number of deaths of older people due to Covid who have the highest hospitalization rates from other diseases, has lowered the number of regular illness cases that would have had to be treated.

[LesPalenik]

If medicine and vaccines are developed to treat those infected better or prevent infection in the first place, hospitalizations may not be required to the same extent.  We are better at it now than when COvid 19 first hit.

Not true.

Jan 5, 2021: In response to the recent increase in COVID-19 cases, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has issued an executive order for area hospitals to postpone elective surgeries and procedures to reserve capacity for COVID-19 patients from the community..

https://www.whs.mil/News/News-Display/Article/2462468/san-antonio-military-health-system-delays-elective-surgeries/