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Author Topic: Covid Vaccine  (Read 13604 times)

jrsforums

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Re: Covid Vaccine
« Reply #100 on: January 24, 2021, 04:35:08 pm »

So now, millions of people will never see their second doses because a political decision was made backed up by CDC bureaucrats who don't want to go against the new president.

I don’t think you read my post on 1/21 CDC guidance.  They did not say that.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Covid Vaccine
« Reply #101 on: January 24, 2021, 04:36:20 pm »

I despair.
You'd give up your second dose to unknown people to get their first dose?  You're a better man than I am.

Alan Klein

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Re: Covid Vaccine
« Reply #102 on: January 24, 2021, 04:39:32 pm »

I don’t think you read my post on 1/21 CDC guidance.  They did not say that.
I don't know what the CDC said about this.  It's just my opinion that the switching of second doses to first doses is going to cause a shortage.  Many people are not going to get their second dose.  Hopefully, I'm wrong and the manufacturers can get more doses out quickly.  Now, Johnson and Johnson's vaccine only requires one dose.  If they get theirs out, that could help the situation a lot. 

jrsforums

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Re: Covid Vaccine
« Reply #103 on: January 24, 2021, 04:42:12 pm »

I heard him say it on TV weeks ago.  Here's an article.  There was no real public discussion; it was unilateral on his part.  Where are the peer-reviewed studies?

Biden Says He Will Release All Vaccine Doses After Taking Office
FRIDAY, Jan. 8, 2021 (HealthDay News) -- President-elect Joe Biden plans to release nearly all available doses of COVID-19 vaccine when he takes office, reversing the Trump administration's strategy of holding back half the supply to ensure second doses are available.

The potentially risky move is meant to boost a nationwide COVID-19 vaccination program that has gotten off to a slow start, with only about 5.9 million doses administered out of 29.4 million distributed, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.


The President-elect believes we must accelerate distribution of the vaccine while continuing to ensure the Americans who need it most get it as soon as possible," T.J. Ducklo, a spokesperson for Biden's transition, told CNN.

Biden "will share additional details next week on how his administration will begin releasing available doses when he assumes office on January 20th," Ducklo added.

One infectious diseases expert noted that supply is not the only issue hampering the vaccine rollout.

"I do think it is important to get all of those out as fast as possible so we can accelerate the process of vaccination," said Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, in Baltimore. "However, it's not just an issue of doses, it's about turning those doses into actual vaccinations, so we do still need more support at the state level to actually implement vaccination programs. We are in a race with this virus, so anything that speeds vaccination should be applauded."

Both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require two doses administered a few weeks apart. The risk is that some people will get their first dose, then be unable to find a follow-up dose.

[/b]https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-01-08/biden-says-he-will-release-all-vaccine-doses-after-taking-office

Biden’s comment was made when the world believed that 2nd dose supply was being held back.  Azar, on 1/12, said he would begin releasing the supply. 

On 1/15, we were told that the reserve supply had been released starting in late December.  The reason initial supply had been held back was to buffer manufacturing unknowns.  They said that was no longer necessary as they had confidence in the continuity of supply.

None of these statements said anything about changes to dose schedules.  The states and providers within the states were to adher to CDC guidelines, which had not....and except, where necessary due to short term shortages, have not changed
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jrsforums

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Re: Covid Vaccine
« Reply #104 on: January 24, 2021, 04:44:01 pm »

I don't know what the CDC said about this.  It's just my opinion that the switching of second doses to first doses is going to cause a shortage.  Many people are not going to get their second dose.  Hopefully, I'm wrong and the manufacturers can get more doses out quickly.  Now, Johnson and Johnson's vaccine only requires one dose.  If they get theirs out, that could help the situation a lot.

Well, shucks, read my post (above) and referenced CDC article before making such statements, ok.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Covid Vaccine
« Reply #105 on: January 24, 2021, 05:04:42 pm »

Biden’s comment was made when the world believed that 2nd dose supply was being held back.  Azar, on 1/12, said he would begin releasing the supply. 

On 1/15, we were told that the reserve supply had been released starting in late December.
The reason initial supply had been held back was to buffer manufacturing unknowns.  They said that was no longer necessary as they had confidence in the continuity of supply.

None of these statements said anything about changes to dose schedules.  The states and providers within the states were to adher to CDC guidelines, which had not....and except, where necessary due to short term shortages, have not changed
Biden's comment about releasing the second doses was made on Jan 6th before Azar's comment on 1/12 and the other comment on 1/15.  Biden made the comment without any virus scientist next to him.  It appeared to me he was doing it unilaterally and politically.  I think Azar and the other followed his order being the good soldiers they are and came up with justifications to his order. 

Trump was castigated for unilaterally recommending testing antiseptics internally, even with doctors standing nearby.  But when Biden recommends something unilaterally that's medical, he's given a pass. 

There are two issues on the table that may be conflating as well.  One is opening up second doses for the first dose.  The second related issue is opening up age group 65-74 to include people from 16-64 who have certain medical issues.  It's too complicated for regular people to sort out, especially seniors.  All we know is at the last moment, the government changed the protocol in two different ways without discussion or public comment.  That wasn't right.  I have loads of friends who can't get their first shot because of it who are in anguish.  They are at wit's end not knowing what to do and scared sh!tless for being left out in the cold not being able to get the shot. That's Biden's fault.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2021, 05:14:21 pm by Alan Klein »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Covid Vaccine
« Reply #106 on: January 24, 2021, 05:21:55 pm »

Well, shucks, read my post (above) and referenced CDC article before making such statements, ok.
Read my last post.  The proof will be in the pudding.  Let's see if all people who had their first shot get their second shot or whether someone in CDC or elsewhere screwed it up again as I suspect.   I really hope I'm wrong because we want to get our second shots in four weeks. 

jrsforums

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Re: Covid Vaccine
« Reply #107 on: January 24, 2021, 05:27:23 pm »

Biden's comment about releasing the second doses was made on Jan 6th before Azar's comment on 1/12 and the other comment on 1/15.  Biden made the comment without any virus scientist next to him.  It appeared to me he was doing it unilaterally and politically.  I think Azar and the other followed his order being the good soldiers they are and came up with justifications to his order. 

Trump was castigated for unilaterally recommending testing antiseptics internally, even with doctors standing nearby.  But when Biden recommends something unilaterally that's medical, he's given a pass. 

There are two issues on the table that may be conflating as well.  One is opening up second doses for the first dose.  The second related issue is opening up age group 65-74 to include people from 16-64 who have certain medical issues.  It's too complicated for regular people to sort out, especially seniors.  All we know is at the last moment, the government changed the protocol in two different ways without discussion or public comment.  That wasn't right.  I have loads of friends who can't get their first shot because of it who are in anguish.  They are at wit's end not knowing what to do and scared sh!tless for being left out in the cold not being able to get the shot. That's Biden's fault.

This is edging on the political, where I do not want to tread.

However, you have no idea who Biden consulted before making that statement on 1/8.  He could not have any of the CDC scientist or Fauci on the broadcast because they did not report to him until noon 1/21.

Azar didn’t “follow his orders” because he did not report to Biden (and doesn’t now, he is no longer in the job).  Azar should have been aware of the supply situation, which he obviously wasn’t.  Who knows why that admin kept it quite.

Taking bleach as a cure and recommending supply release (which was being done, but hidden) are worlds apart and I question how they can be included in the same paragraph, much less same room...??

The issue on 2nd doses is not supply, but how the supply is managed weekly to balance 1st and 2nd dose needs.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Covid Vaccine
« Reply #108 on: January 24, 2021, 05:36:51 pm »

This is edging on the political, where I do not want to tread.

However, you have no idea who Biden consulted before making that statement on 1/8.
He could not have any of the CDC scientist or Fauci on the broadcast because they did not report to him until noon 1/21.

Azar didn’t “follow his orders” because he did not report to Biden (and doesn’t now, he is no longer in the job).  Azar should have been aware of the supply situation, which he obviously wasn’t.  Who knows why that admin kept it quite.

Taking bleach as a cure and recommending supply release (which was being done, but hidden) are worlds apart and I question how they can be included in the same paragraph, much less same room...??

The issue on 2nd doses is not supply, but how the supply is managed weekly to balance 1st and 2nd dose needs.
That was my point.  When I heard Biden say it on TV at the time, it sounded political. He didn't refer to any medical guidance he received that I recall.  It came out of the blue as if he just thought it was a good idea to release second shots as first shots.  After that, I heard nothing from him although he could have made statements that I missed, of course.  But I do recall hearing afterwards Azar and others recommending the change as well. 

But there were no coordinated meetings.  You're right that Azar and others still worked for the last administration.  So they wouldn't appear with Biden.  Well, that made his recommendation even more unilateral and less medically guided to the public.  That's why I'm so distrustful of the whole thing.  And both protocol changes were made just as the last administration was ending, too coincidental and even more suspicious.  It all seems like a political afterthought, and dangerous.

jrsforums

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Re: Covid Vaccine
« Reply #109 on: January 24, 2021, 05:39:16 pm »

That was my point.  When I heard Biden say it on TV at the time, it sounded political. He didn't refer to any medical guidance he received that I recall.  It came out of the blue as if he just thought it was a good idea to release second shots as first shots.  After that, I heard nothing from him although he could have made statements that I missed, of course.  But I do recall hearing afterwards Azar and others recommending the change as well. 

But there were no coordinated meetings.  You're right that Azar and others still worked for the last administration.  So they wouldn't appear with Biden.  Well, that made his recommendation even more unilateral and less medically guided to the public.  That's why I'm so distrustful of the whole thing.  And both protocol changes were made just as the last administration was ending, too coincidental and even more suspicious.  It all seems like a political afterthought, and dangerous.

Never mind....not getting in to that.  If you would like to discuss factual matters, I am glad to do so. I’ll not get into conspiracy theories.

EDIT:  BTW, the issue being discussed, is not one of dosage timing, but one of supply chain management.  If you know you need sets amounts of dosages for 2nd dosage and you have an unproven manufacturing line, you need to build a supply buffer so you can provide the ‘on time delivery’ within the 3/4 week window.  As you improve reliability, you can lower the buffer.  Apparently the people in charge of logistics ( General Perna) had confidence in manufacturing to lower the buffer to zero at the federal level.  Obviously, points of distribution (states, medical centers, pharmacies, etc) would need to manage theirs.  However, having multiple levels of supply buffers is inefficient and keeps supply from getting used on a timely basis.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2021, 06:24:13 pm by jrsforums »
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LesPalenik

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Re: Covid Vaccine
« Reply #110 on: January 24, 2021, 08:11:29 pm »

Apparently you know more than Pfizer and Moderna. Their protocol is for two shots.  Would you think this plan for releasing the second does as the first was so good if Trump did it? Be honest.  :)

I never disputed the two-shot method, if Pfizer and Moderna say so, I am all for it. I said that there is no need to hoard the available vaccines in a special location or cupboard for the second shot. The doses can be taken when required from just one inventory location which is constantly used and replenished - first in, first out. Or in other words like what Toyota does with their car parts - Just In Time Inventory.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Covid Vaccine
« Reply #111 on: January 24, 2021, 08:37:51 pm »

Never mind....not getting in to that.  If you would like to discuss factual matters, I am glad to do so. I’ll not get into conspiracy theories.

EDIT:  BTW, the issue being discussed, is not one of dosage timing, but one of supply chain management.  If you know you need sets amounts of dosages for 2nd dosage and you have an unproven manufacturing line, you need to build a supply buffer so you can provide the ‘on time delivery’ within the 3/4 week window.  As you improve reliability, you can lower the buffer.  Apparently the people in charge of logistics ( General Perna) had confidence in manufacturing to lower the buffer to zero at the federal level.  Obviously, points of distribution (states, medical centers, pharmacies, etc) would need to manage theirs.  However, having multiple levels of supply buffers is inefficient and keeps supply from getting used on a timely basis.
Your explanation is getting into the weeds.  The average senior only knows he can't get an appointment for the shot. Maybe the senior's worried that he may die because of it.   Maybe the fact the new administration changed the protocol has something to do with it.   He isn't concerned with "on-time deliveries" or "lowering the buffer", whatever that means.  He just wants his shot.

Alan Klein

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Re: Covid Vaccine
« Reply #112 on: January 24, 2021, 08:53:22 pm »

I never disputed the two-shot method, if Pfizer and Moderna say so, I am all for it. I said that there is no need to hoard the available vaccines in a special location or cupboard for the second shot. The doses can be taken when required from just one inventory location which is constantly used and replenished - first in, first out. Or in other words like what Toyota does with their car parts - Just In Time Inventory.
Just in time only works when the supplier or manufacturer can guarantee the supply.  That's not the case with the vaccine.  They're already out of doses and no one can get an appointment for a shot. 

Here's another example in Pennsylvania.  When they changed the protocol to include 16-64-year-olds with 65 and older, 3 1/3 million more Pennsylvanians wound up in that group.  The vaccine there is now as rare as a Northern Hairy-Nosed Wombat.


Philadelphia’s health commissioner, Dr. Tom Farley, told state lawmakers Friday that he understood the frustration among people who want the vaccine but can’t get it.

“Information is confusing, you don’t know where to call, you don’t get good answers, you’re told you gotta wait, but you don’t know how long you’re going to wait, so I really share that frustration,” Farley said.

Interest in the vaccine surged this week after Pennsylvania greatly expanded eligibility to include people age 65 and over, as well as younger people with serious health conditions that put them at higher risk. The expansion means that some 3.5 million people are now eligible to receive one of the two approved vaccines. The state had previously been directing the vaccine to health care workers and residents of long-term care facilities.

“We did see a massive influx of additional demand,” said Dr. Jaewon Ryu, president and chief executive officer of Geisinger, one of the state’s largest health networks.

https://www.abc27.com/news/this-week-in-pennsylvania/democratic-lawmaker-slams-pennsylvania-over-vaccine-rollout/

Alan Klein

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Re: Covid Vaccine
« Reply #113 on: January 24, 2021, 09:07:51 pm »

Just an update on the effect of the Moderna shot. (first).  My shoulder where I was injected still hurts a little especially when I raise my arm,  but not as much as this afternoon.  My wife complained earlier today that her shoulder hurt too.  We both had the shots at the same time.   It's been two days and six hours.

jeremyrh

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Re: Covid Vaccine
« Reply #114 on: January 25, 2021, 02:58:35 am »

You'd give up your second dose to unknown people to get their first dose?  You're a better man than I am.
Let me put the question a different way - you have had one shot, your wife none. Now you two get another shot to use - do you use it to get your second shot, or give it to your wife for her first shot?
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Alan Klein

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Re: Covid Vaccine
« Reply #115 on: January 25, 2021, 10:21:01 am »

Let me put the question a different way - you have had one shot, your wife none. Now you two get another shot to use - do you use it to get your second shot, or give it to your wife for her first shot?
I told you already that I was ready to give my first shot to my wife if they only had one appointment for us. 

Here's one for you. Would you give up your second shot so I could get my first shot? :)

jeremyrh

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Re: Covid Vaccine
« Reply #116 on: January 25, 2021, 11:10:22 am »

I told you already that I was ready to give my first shot to my wife if they only had one appointment for us. 

That was not the question I asked, which was "you have had one shot, your wife none. Now you two get another shot to use - do you use it to get your second shot, or give it to your wife for her first shot?"

So your statement is not relevant.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Covid Vaccine
« Reply #117 on: January 25, 2021, 11:34:40 am »

That was not the question I asked, which was "you have had one shot, your wife none. Now you two get another shot to use - do you use it to get your second shot, or give it to your wife for her first shot?"

So your statement is not relevant.
If I'm willing to give up my first shot, of course, I'd be willing to give up my second shot. 

So now answer the question I asked.  Would you be willing to give your second shot to me for my first shot?

jrsforums

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jeremyrh

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Re: Covid Vaccine
« Reply #119 on: January 25, 2021, 01:04:48 pm »

If I'm willing to give up my first shot, of course, I'd be willing to give up my second shot. 

So now answer the question I asked.  Would you be willing to give your second shot to me for my first shot?

No of course I wouldn't.

But I see you now accept the logic of providing more people with a first shot. Progress.
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