Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa

[Rob C]

No, Robert, not too cynical, just a fairly lone voice crying out in the wilderness. Another shooting in Florida, more grieving. Obviously, the US needs more guns in order to stop these sorts of things happening…

One of the strange things in this world is that some people can’t see the obvious contradictions they espouse: one person I know is very anti-Scottish Nationalist (a poisonous party that wants to break up the link between Scotland and the rest of the UK), yet, at the same time, voted for Brexit which has exactly the same ideology of breaking up long-established and mutually beneficial political unions. In neither case is the smaller part going to be stronger.

[Robert Roaldi]

No, Robert, not too cynical, just a fairly lone voice crying out in the wilderness. Another shooting in Florida, more grieving. Obviously, the US needs more guns in order to stop these sorts of things happening…

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The Gun Violence Archive (GVA) continues its data collection, https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/mass-shooting.  Barely a day goes by.

[Robert Roaldi]

Here's an interesting discussion about RFK Jr's anti-vaccine sentiments and where they stem from. It's a 40 min podcast episode from Malcolm Gladwell's Revisionist History series, https://www.pushkin.fm/podcasts/revisionist-history/the-rfk-jr-problem.

The broadcast uses as a case in point the vaccine for Rotovirus and the seemingly utterly irrational vitriol that RFK Jr reserves for both the vaccine and its creator, whom he seems to hate as much as he hates Fauci. It's difficult to listen to this and not wonder why the US is hell bent on becoming a failed state.

[digitaldog]

Ah, history; I wasn’t a fan as a kid in grade school, but as an adult, fascinating:

https://www.msnbc.com/the-week/watch/bringing-our-revolutionary-past-to-the-pandemic-117717573606

To counter both the fear and the actual disease itself George Washington ordered a bold move on February 6, 1777, to have the entire Continental Army inoculated. At this juncture it became a matter of policy. This act alone may have saved the Revolution. The process was simple. A physician lanced one of the infected patient’s pustules with a knife or scalpel and then inserted the infected blade under the skin of a healthy person. Generally the inoculated person contracted the disease, but in a much milder form.

The policy of inoculation was written by Washington in a directive to the Continental Army’s Medical Director, Dr. William Shippen. The directive ordered that all troops coming through Philadelphia were to be inoculated. Urgency was at stake with Washington writing, “Necessity not only authorizes but seems to require the measure, for should the disorder infect the Army . . . we should have more to dread from it, than from the Sword of the Enemy." Washington informed Congress a month later of the plan, which was carried out after that covertly, so the British were unaware of what Washington was doing. Washington chose to have his soldiers inoculated during the winter for strategic reasons. Fighting had ebbed and most campaigning took place during warmer weather. By inoculating his troops during the winter Washington adroitly gave his troops enough time to recover from the effects of inoculation before fighting commenced. Most of the inoculations took place at the Morristown, New Jersey encampment and in facilities in Philadelphia. The risk was enormous as less than a quarter of those serving at the time in the Continental Army had contracted the disease naturally.

Washington was always a better strategist than tactician. Even though he lost more battles than he won he had command of the larger picture. In this case he scored a seemingly impossible victory against an invisible enemy.

[Robert Roaldi]

I see that Hegseth is in the middle of another security mess but yet still has his job. Trump is showing himself to be uncharacteristically loyal. I watched a short clip of an interview with Hegseth but all he had to say was the usual messaging about creating new American warriors, or some such. He didn't seem ok.

[Robert Roaldi]

Now this one is interesting. Two female teenage tourists were held in custody in Hawaii then deported because they didn't have hotel reservations for their entire stay, which was interpreted as risky. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OuZj267LfmA. I hope this turns out to be a fake story but it doesn't appear to be.

Trumpistan seems to be uniting behind the idea that Hegseth's second security breach scandal is the fault of the Pentagon deep state culture. I think old Pete should stick to 'the dog ate my homework' line, it's more credible.

[Rhossydd]

Now this one is interesting. Two female teenage tourists were held in custody in Hawaii then deported ........ I hope this turns out to be a fake story but it doesn't appear to be.

All true and widely reported here in Europe, along with many other stories of people being refused entry. The USA is now somewhere people don't want to go to.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/22/why-a-holiday-in-the-us-is-out-of-the-question

[degrub]

Now this one is interesting. Two female teenage tourists were held in custody in Hawaii then deported because they didn't have hotel reservations for their entire stay, which was interpreted as risky. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OuZj267LfmA. I hope this turns out to be a fake story but it doesn't appear to be.

Immigration officers in every country that i am aware of have had the discretionary power to deny anyone entry for whatever reason. We are just seeing some of the more egregious cases publicized. Some of the entry rules are quite arcane, but they are there. Not having a place to stay for the full trip duration is one of the more common ways for a visitor to become a ghost in a country and overstay a tourist visa. Been done thousands or tens of thousands of times over the years by ladies from Asia seeking a husband in the US.  Traffickers have also used the technique. So if there is anything else in their profile from the country of origin, including the country of origin, it can be a dead cert for being denied entry.

[Robert Roaldi]

Immigration officers in every country that i am aware of have had the discretionary power to deny anyone entry for whatever reason. We are just seeing some of the more egregious cases publicized. Some of the entry rules are quite arcane, but they are there. Not having a place to stay for the full trip duration is one of the more common ways for a visitor to become a ghost in a country and overstay a tourist visa. Been done thousands or tens of thousands of times over the years by ladies from Asia seeking a husband in the US.  Traffickers have also used the technique. So if there is anything else in their profile from the country of origin, including the country of origin, it can be a dead cert for being denied entry.

I saw some advice online recently about using a burner phone when entering the US, presumably to avoid having your personal phone's texting history searched in case you said something anti-Trump once. Maybe we should now add to that advice for people to make a bunch of hotel reservations as well. They're easy enough to cancel. Maybe at Trump-branded hotels? 

[Rob C]

I have been to the US a couple of times - on shoots - but I wouldn't have dreamed of going for pleasure. That's decades before I had ever heard of Trump; my problem had always been the idea that there were so many guns around, that some dickhead tanked up with something or the other - or even just for fun - could blow my head off. Who needs it? Well, the trip, I mean; obviously I need my head.

[Rhossydd]

my problem had always been the idea that there were so many guns around, that some dickhead tanked up with something or the other - or even just for fun - could blow my head off.

Objectively it's probably unlikely that you're at much risk as a tourist, as long as you don't try to explore the more risky places. But still a scary prospect.
The outrageous cost of medical insurance makes it a no-go destination for me. I also hate the idea that I wouldn't be able to avoid dealing with people in hospitality so poorly paid that they expect massive tips from customers for just doing their jobs.

Now that Trumpism has surfaced and polluted it's reputation, the USA  it's somewhere you'd need to pay me a huge amount to visit for work or leisure.

A shame as the scenery looks nice and some of the Americans are nice folk.

[Rob C]

Yes, insurance, especially for an old guy with previous. Frankly, I'd be surprised if anybody would even offer me a quotation.

The tip thing hit me too. It felt like I was being mugged, and especially so when the actual service received was so shockingly poor. Of course, that might be peculiar to Florida.

I have always felt that tipping and being tipped were, basically, insulting of human dignity. Of course, if that‘s the system, you just have to go along with it. It's my experience that here, in my end of Mallorca, tipping is for tourists. I very, very seldom see local people tip for having a coffee or a beer. But to be fair, that observation is based on frequenting the very same bar almost all the time, as do most of the folks I chat with there.

There are many unfilled jobs here, and very much so with medical nurses. Just today, there was an article in the local press about the growing shortage of staff, not that the trained folks don’t exist, but that they are priced out of accommodation because of tourism and its pricing structures. I’m told that in Puerto Pollensa, you won’t find anywhere to rent for under 1000 euros a month. Twelve grand off a nurse’s or a waiter’s earnings and they have become slaves, living on air. Impossible, insoluble mathematics of supply and demand. They are better off collecting welfare.

[Ray]

There are many unfilled jobs here, and very much so with medical nurses. Just today, there was an article in the local press about the growing shortage of staff, not that the trained folks don’t exist, but that they are priced out of accommodation because of tourism and its pricing structures. I’m told that in Puerto Pollensa, you won’t find anywhere to rent for under 1000 euros a month. Twelve grand off a nurse’s or a waiter’s earnings and they have become slaves, living on air. Impossible, insoluble mathematics of supply and demand. They are better off collecting welfare.

Rob,
Perhaps all the subsidies for renewable energy are partly to blame.

"Spanish Prime Minister announces $2.5bn in new subsidies for green energy and hydrogen.
Funds to be available for renewable and H2 supply chain, including wind, solar and electrolyser manufacturers."

https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/spanish-prime-minister-announces-2-5bn-in-new-subsidies-for-green-energy-and-hydrogen/2-1-1679693#:~:text=and%20hydrogen%20%7C%20Recharge-,Spanish%20Prime%20Minister%20announces%20$2.5bn%20in,for%20green%20energy%20and%20hydrogen&text=Spain's%20Prime%20Minister%20Pedro%20S%C3%A1nchez,the%20European%20Commission%20in%20September

[Rob C]

Just recently, we (Spain) had a couple of days of zero electricity costs due to renewables taking over. The more of this coming online the better. There’s an empty, abandoned farm across the hedge. For the forty-four years that I have been here, it has held planning permission for the construction of a one-floor sports centre. So far, there is no demand, as two centres already exist. I would far rather the entire field be converted to solar energy plates! A couple of feet to the top of the hedge and they would remain invisible from up on my verandah. Way to go; no smells and no pollution… I would imagine that Australia and India could eventually enjoy entire seasons of free electricity. Now that could make electric cars look a bit better an option.

The reason for the renting shortages is simple: too much property poured into holiday lets. If a landlord can pocket several grand a week for the summer, why would he turn it away in favour of long, affordable leases for nationals who live here, where the renters can’t be hoofed out if they misbehave? The reality here is that should a property become vacant, the owner will leave it empty rather than let it out for low numbers. The local supermarkets constantly have notices asking for staff. Nobody who wants that kind of job can afford to come to the island (Mallorca) to take it. Equally, there are those born here who simply don’t want that kind of work, and would rather spend the summer at the beach and collect the dole money. The parental family home can remain home to many folks already in their forties; I have a friend who, after an accident, can no longer do sustained physical work: his daughter and her husband live with him and his wife…

During the late fifties and the sixties, my mother used to spend months at a time living in Italy - one of the advantages of dual bloodlines! I can remember her telling me that Italy had thousands of well-educated young people with no chance of finding work at their educational level. Today, throw in automation, robots, now AI and global markets, and such a position can’t improve. The chances for those lacking degrees are even worse. Hello, Mr Mafia…?

[digitaldog]

Perhaps all the subsidies for renewable energy are partly to blame.

Not if the goal is to produce the least expensive (and better, renewable) energy:
https://decarbonization.visualcapitalist.com/the-cheapest-sources-of-electricity-in-the-us/

[Robert Roaldi]

It hasn't all been through the wash yet but early indications suggest that 'Ron De Sanctimonious' may be dirty. At least that's how the newspapers and the online world are reporting it. I won't provide a link, the stories are hard to miss. Imagine, a crooked Florida politician? Noooo, say it ain't so!

But it's a topsy turvy world these days, this may actually do his career some good. Make him more of a heir apparent, unless JD can go out and do something nasty soon to gain back some spotlight. Friends of mine were cracking jokes that after speaking to JD, the Pope decided life wasn't worth living. The joke is in poor taste, but it's still funny.

There was some criticism about how Trump dressed at the Pope's send-off. The protocol was to wear black. I'm just grateful he didn't wear one of those dumb red hats. I didn't pay it any attention, did he know when to stand or kneel during the funereal mass?

The FBI has arrested two judges. Cute stunt, I wonder if they can make it stick. I mean, did they actually do something illegal or is it just more distraction. Maybe the FBI should go back to tracking rock and roll lyrics, like in J. Edgar's day.

I wonder what kind of TV cop or sitcom series that Hollywood is dreaming up these days. Every era brings its faves. In the years after 9/11 and the war on terror, all the cops on TV were supermen. If that were even partly true, it would be miraculous that there was any crime. Maybe it's time for a keystone cops type revival. Busting foreign teenage girls at airports for not making hotel reservations, that kind of laugh-a-minute comedy, with laugh track of course so we know which are the funny bits.

[Ray]

Not if the goal is to produce the least expensive (and better, renewable) energy:
https://decarbonization.visualcapitalist.com/the-cheapest-sources-of-electricity-in-the-us/

Thanks for the link, Andrew. Now I understand why electricity prices are so low in countries which have prioritised the shift to renewables, such as the UK and Germany. (Joke      )

I did an internet search for the states in America which have the lowest electricity prices and what is the source of their electricity generation. Here's a list of four states that have the cheapest electricity generation.

There must be something that those LCOE estimates are not including.

1. North Dakota
In North Dakota, the primary source of electricity generation is coal, specifically lignite coal, which accounts for 55% of the state's electricity production. Wind energy is the second largest source, providing 36% of the electricity.

2. Wyoming
The primary source of electricity generation in Wyoming is coal. While coal-fired power plants still dominate, a significant and increasing amount of electricity is also generated from wind and natural gas, along with hydropower.

3. Louisiana
The primary source of electricity generation in Louisiana is natural gas, accounting for a significant portion of the state's electricity production. In 2023, natural gas fueled 76% of Louisiana's electricity net generation, making it the dominant source. The state also relies on nuclear power, which generated around 15% of electricity in 2022.

4. Utah
In 2023, Utah's primary source of electricity was coal, which accounted for 47.3% of the state's total generation. Natural gas followed as the second largest source, contributing 35.5%. Renewable sources (including solar and wind) made up 15.5% of the state's electricity generation.

[Jonathan Cross]

Thanks for the link, Andrew. Now I understand why electricity prices are so low in countries which have prioritised the shift to renewables, such as the UK and Germany. (Joke      )

Ho, ho, yes.  It's not rocket science though; the capital cost of conversion, including decommissioning fossil sources is high, but running costs are lower, so prices should drop over time.  They are low if you are canny.  We are on a low night tariff.  We do the washing and dish washing then, and charge our electric car.  In the case of the car this means the electricity cost is about 4 US cents per mile.  Charging stations are now widespread in most parts and hotels are starting to have chargers.  When we visit my wife's sister we just plug in the domestic supply overnight.

Jonathan

[Ray]

Thanks for the link, Andrew. Now I understand why electricity prices are so low in countries which have prioritised the shift to renewables, such as the UK and Germany. (Joke      )

Ho, ho, yes.  It's not rocket science though; the capital cost of conversion, including decommissioning fossil sources is high, but running costs are lower, so prices should drop over time.  They are low if you are canny.  We are on a low night tariff.  We do the washing and dish washing then, and charge our electric car. In the case of the car this means the electricity cost is about 4 US cents per mile.  Charging stations are now widespread in most parts and hotels are starting to have chargers.  When we visit my wife's sister we just plug in the domestic supply overnight.

Jonathan

Wow! Everyone charges their EV at night when the sun doesn't shine.   

That would suggest that solar panels are not an efficient and reliable source of energy, surely. If the wind were to blow and the sun were to shine only when the electricity is needed, then that would make wind and solar energy possibly as cheap as fossil fuels.

However, what usually happens is excess electricity from solar panels and windmills during sunny and/or windy days, tends to be wasted to prevent an overburden on the grid, and very expensive battery storage, or fossil fuel generators which are used inefficiently because they are standing idle much of the time, provide the energy required when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow.

[digitaldog]

There must be something that those LCOE estimates are not including.

1. North Dakota
In North Dakota, the primary source of electricity generation is coal, specifically lignite coal, which accounts for 55% of the state's electricity production. Wind energy is the second largest source, providing 36% of the electricity.

2. Wyoming
The primary source of electricity generation in Wyoming is coal. While coal-fired power plants still dominate, a significant and increasing amount of electricity is also generated from wind and natural gas, along with hydropower.

3. Louisiana
The primary source of electricity generation in Louisiana is natural gas, accounting for a significant portion of the state's electricity production. In 2023, natural gas fueled 76% of Louisiana's electricity net generation, making it the dominant source. The state also relies on nuclear power, which generated around 15% of electricity in 2022.

4. Utah
In 2023, Utah's primary source of electricity was coal, which accounted for 47.3% of the state's total generation. Natural gas followed as the second largest source, contributing 35.5%. Renewable sources (including solar and wind) made up 15.5% of the state's electricity generation.

This is a problem with those states, and we need a national approach (unlikely under the current admin). In my state, New Mexico, 100% of all electricity by law must be generated by renewables by 2045. As of today, we generate about 80% from renewables. I personally generate more than 100% of my electricity via solar.