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Author Topic: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa  (Read 454668 times)

Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12280 on: November 13, 2021, 06:44:06 pm »

From Forbes October 22, 2021...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2021/10/22/the-us-oil-supply-is-still-out-of-balance

The U.S. Oil Supply Is Still Out Of Balance

You may find it curious that the price of oil is still above $80 a barrel. This is also why gasoline prices are at the highest levels since 2014. But, there is a good explanation for it.

In January 2020, just before the Covid-19 pandemic began to sweep across the U.S., domestic oil production was 12.8 million barrels per day (BPD). Production remained at that level for a couple of months despite the double-whammy of a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, and growing demand destruction as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.

But the situation was untenable. The price of oil eventually fell to zero and then kept going. That forced some producers into bankruptcy, resulting in the largest short-term oil production drop in U.S. history.

Production declined all the way to 9.7 million BPD in May 2020 (which was the month after oil prices went negative), but has since bounced back to 11.3 million BPD.

Meanwhile, U.S. oil demand has jumped back above 21.8 million BPD, which is where it was prior to the Covid-induced plunge. This loss of supply and recovery of demand is the biggest reason we have $80/bbl oil today when it was only $60/bbl just before the pandemic.

The loss of supply has caused the U.S. to lose its briefly-held status as a net exporter of petroleum and petroleum products. That number had trended down from a high of 13 million BPD of imports in 2005 all the way to over a million BPD of exports in 2020. Now we have returned to net importer status, most recently importing a net average of 1.3 million BPD over the past four weeks.

But there are some signs that help may be on the way. In January 2020 there were nearly 700 rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. By the summer of 2020, that number had fallen below 200. The rig count has steadily recovered over the past year to reach 445 — the highest level since the pandemic started.

The downside is that it can take months at a minimum for new drilling activity to turn into oil production. So don’t rush out and buy that gas guzzler just yet.

Chart from Forbes Article Above: April-May, 2020 - Largest Short-Term Oil Production Drop in U.S. History
Too complicated and in the weeds.  The public only knows that Biden shut down an oil pipeline and is anti-oil.  Democrats want to spend too much causing inflation. He and they are going to get the blame for high oil prices and high prices across the board.  Good luck convincing voters of something different.

Manoli

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12281 on: November 13, 2021, 07:00:18 pm »

In January 2020, just before the Covid-19 pandemic began to sweep across the U.S., domestic oil production was 12.8 million barrels per day (BPD). Production remained at that level for a couple of months despite the double-whammy of a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, and growing demand destruction as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.

But the situation was untenable. The price of oil eventually fell to zero and then kept going. That forced some producers into bankruptcy, resulting in the largest short-term oil production drop in U.S. history.

It did indeed 'keep on going' all the way down to negative $37.63 on April 20. 2020.

"The Essex Boys: How Nine Traders Hit a Gusher With Negative Oil : Over the course of a few hours on April 20, a guy called Cuddles and eight of his pals from the freewheeling world of London's commodities markets rode oil's crash to a $660 million profit."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-12-10/stock-market-when-oil-when-negative-these-essex-traders-pounced

« Last Edit: November 13, 2021, 07:27:02 pm by Manoli »
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Manoli

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12282 on: November 13, 2021, 07:01:37 pm »

Too complicated and in the weeds.  The public only knows that Biden shut down an oil pipeline and is anti-oil.  Democrats want to spend too much causing inflation. He and they are going to get the blame for high oil prices and high prices across the board.  Good luck convincing voters of something different.

Read more, post less.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12283 on: November 13, 2021, 07:06:01 pm »

Please remove "RE: inflatgion" from the quote portion of your post. It isn't a quote from me and "inflatgion" is not a word that I know nor would ever use.

Clumsy misspelling for which I apologize. Corrected in the original post.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12284 on: November 13, 2021, 07:17:55 pm »

Where can I find a list which shows the "creation of many new government agencies"? How many "new government agencies" were created? Like the rest of your reply it's rather fuzzy.

You toss a global pandemic into the same bag as government's response and then make broad references to "inefficiencies, lowered productivity, labour shortages, disruptions in supply chain" caused by both. Obviously a global pandemic, like the one we have been experiencing is going to have a major impact on all of those things. Likewise, how effectively or ineffectively governments around the world respond in controlling and limiting the spread and severity of the disease has an impact on how long and how severe the pandemic will be and subsequently affecting the economic fallout from it.

The introduction of vaccines are naturally playing a major role in all of this. The U.S. government has had a major role in both the development of current vaccines (thru the NIAID) and their rapid production (thru BARDA). Other nation's governments have also made major contributions to creating vaccines as a beginning to getting this pandemic under control.

I think that it was widely expected that the depressed economy in 2020 snapping upward rapidly in 2021 would affect inflation. Perhaps you have a different understanding of what transitory means than I. The antonym of transitory is permanent. Do you have some reason to think that the current inflation rate is permanent?

Chart: Latest Inflation Jump Relative To Others - Year-Over-Year Change Since 1970

I hope that inflation in the future years will happen on relatively smaller scale than at present. Unfortunately, many absolute price rises that occured recently won't be rolled down. Maybe in Canada we are hit harder with the inflation than in US. For example. to send a 1lb parcel from central Ontario to the West Coast, Canada Post charges now almost $20Cdn (incl. taxes). My local supermarket charges this year 30% more for squash than last year (same increase for food in general was reported by Fortune magazine). Even the offical inflation rate is quoted as 4.4% for 2021.

Since the fertilizer costs are up this year, you can expect still higher prices for food next year. According to Bloomberg's Green Markets, expensive fertilizer could push U.S. corn farmers’ cost of production 16 per cent higher. But not to worry about - the official Consumer Price Index doesn't include the food prices and increases.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2021, 10:41:05 pm by LesPalenik »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12285 on: November 13, 2021, 07:56:11 pm »

I hope that inflation in the future years will happen on relatively smaller scale than at present. Unfortunately, many absolute price rises that occured recently won't be rolled down. Maybe in Canada we are hit harder with the inflation than in US. For example. to send a 1lb parcel from central Ontario to the West Coast, Canada Post charges now almost $20Cdn (incl. taxes). My local supermarket charges this year 30% more for squash than last year. Even the offical inflation rate is quoted as 4.4% for 2021.
I just found out the US Medicare charge is going up about 17% next year.  That will add around $250 each for my wife's and my Social Security deduction to cover Medicare.  (We're both seniors and getting "free" Medicare.)  Of course, we're also getting around a 6% increase in Social Security due to inflation.  So the government gives and takes at the same time.  Really screwed up.   

PeterAit

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12286 on: November 14, 2021, 12:18:57 pm »

Why should OPEC increase production? They don't owe us anything.  In any case, America can make up the slack with its own production if Biden would let the oil companies do it.  He'd rather beg the Arabs.   How embarrassing?

Read my post. It's the oil companies limiting production on their own to maximize their profits. It's not Biden. And it's not Biden exporting gasoline that could be used to lower prices here.

Here's a cartoon giving a good perspective on the as price increases.

https://www.newsobserver.com/opinion/article255774151.html
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Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12287 on: November 14, 2021, 02:05:25 pm »

Read my post. It's the oil companies limiting production on their own to maximize their profits. It's not Biden. And it's not Biden exporting gasoline that could be used to lower prices here.

Here's a cartoon giving a good perspective on the as price increases.

https://www.newsobserver.com/opinion/article255774151.html
Many oil producers are hesitant to start drilling again domestically fearing they'll get stopped by Biden.  So many of them are staying on the sidelines for now.  Would you risk spending money now installing a new oil pipeline?

Peter McLennan

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12288 on: November 14, 2021, 02:22:37 pm »

Too complicated and in the weeds.

Yeh.  By all means don't muddy the waters of ill-informed thought with contradictory facts.
« Last Edit: November 14, 2021, 02:27:03 pm by Peter McLennan »
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Peter McLennan

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12289 on: November 14, 2021, 02:26:46 pm »

Hey, Alan.  I've got a good idea for how you could more productively spend your time.

Rather than relentlessly present your ideas and opinions here to a mostly unreceptive audience, why don't you start a blog?  Wordpress blogs are free, easy and fun to create. 

They'd offer you a much wider audience, too. 
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Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12290 on: November 14, 2021, 04:42:14 pm »

Hey, Alan.  I've got a good idea for how you could more productively spend your time.

Rather than relentlessly present your ideas and opinions here to a mostly unreceptive audience, why don't you start a blog?  Wordpress blogs are free, easy and fun to create. 

They'd offer you a much wider audience, too. 
I get better practice debating with people who oppose my ideas.  Anyway, you're old friends.  :)

PeterAit

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12291 on: November 14, 2021, 05:41:13 pm »

Many oil producers are hesitant to start drilling again domestically fearing they'll get stopped by Biden.  So many of them are staying on the sidelines for now.  Would you risk spending money now installing a new oil pipeline?

Oh pish-tush! Oil drilling - and gas - has been increasing for almost a year.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-drillers-add-oil-gas-rigs-11th-month-baker-hughes-2021-06-25/

And anyway we need less gasoline burning. This global warming and climate change is REALLY SERIOUS and higher prices are one way to reduce it. Hard on some people, true, but not as hard as a flood or wildfire or hurricane or heat wave or drought.
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Peter McLennan

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12292 on: November 14, 2021, 07:46:22 pm »

I get better practice debating with people who oppose my ideas. 

"Practice"  ???  That's what it's all about?   Jeebers.

There is no "debate" with you, as you have surely found.  Once your "facts" are debunked, you run for cover and change the subject.  With your own blog, you're free to say what you like and debunk on your own turf the comments that result.  We'll all be better off.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12293 on: November 14, 2021, 07:52:55 pm »

Oh pish-tush! Oil drilling - and gas - has been increasing for almost a year.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-drillers-add-oil-gas-rigs-11th-month-baker-hughes-2021-06-25/

And anyway we need less gasoline burning. This global warming and climate change is REALLY SERIOUS and higher prices are one way to reduce it. Hard on some people, true, but not as hard as a flood or wildfire or hurricane or heat wave or drought.
Explain that to the voters.

Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12294 on: November 14, 2021, 07:56:08 pm »

"Practice"  ???  That's what it's all about?   Jeebers.

There is no "debate" with you, as you have surely found.  Once your "facts" are debunked, you run for cover and change the subject.  With your own blog, you're free to say what you like and debunk on your own turf the comments that result.  We'll all be better off.
Peter You're the one who abhors debate.  You're the one who wants to shut down the other side.  You rarely present your own arguments.  You're satisfied with just attacking the other side for being the other side.

Robert Roaldi

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12295 on: November 14, 2021, 11:07:13 pm »

... You're the one who wants to shut down the other side.  ...

Please stop repeating this. No one has ever tried to shut anyone down.
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PeterAit

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12296 on: November 15, 2021, 10:19:16 am »

I just found out the US Medicare charge is going up about 17% next year.  That will add around $250 each for my wife's and my Social Security deduction to cover Medicare.  (We're both seniors and getting "free" Medicare.)  Of course, we're also getting around a 6% increase in Social Security due to inflation.  So the government gives and takes at the same time.  Really screwed up.

Half of the Medicare increase is due to uncertainty over the new Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm which costs $56,000 a year. Because it is administered in a dr's office it is under part B and not part D. And there's no real evidence that it works, yet for reasons that are unfathomable to me the FDA approved it DESPITE the almost unanimous opinion of the advisory panel.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12297 on: November 15, 2021, 10:27:25 am »

Please stop repeating this. No one has ever tried to shut anyone down.
When I poster says that another poster ought to leave the forum because he disagrees with his views, that's trying to shut him down rather than argue points. 

Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12298 on: November 15, 2021, 10:32:28 am »

Half of the Medicare increase is due to uncertainty over the new Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm which costs $56,000 a year. Because it is administered in a dr's office it is under part B and not part D. And there's no real evidence that it works, yet for reasons that are unfathomable to me the FDA approved it DESPITE the almost unanimous opinion of the advisory panel.
Yes I read that too.  So the increase in payment is for some drug that hopefully I'll never need.  But the point is that on the one hand, the government gives social security recipients an increase due to inflation.  And then, because of inflation in medical costs, they take part of the raise away by charging those same recipients more for Medicare.   It's the same as when they tax social security payments.  They give with one hand and then take back with the other.  You have to admit that's pretty weird.  :o

Robert Roaldi

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12299 on: November 15, 2021, 11:09:42 am »

When I poster says that another poster ought to leave the forum because he disagrees with his views, that's trying to shut him down rather than argue points.

You're referring to the suggestion that you start a blog, I presume? Is that is what you call trying to shut you down?!? Give me a break, now you're just gaslighting us. :)

No one has ever tried to shut you down. People have disagreed with you, that's not the same thing. You're entitled to your opinions in the sense that you can't be arrested for them, but that doesn't mean that those opinions are necessarily valid nor did it mean that others have to accept them. If you have the right to express your opinions, which you do all day long, then that means that others can as well or are you trying to shut them down?
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