Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa

[TechTalk]

I was more concerned about the 38% approval number than whether the poll was taken over three days or just on one day.

Nearly all the types of approval or election polls are conducted over multiple days and not on a single day. The exception may be certain types on online polling.

For clarification, when looking at approval or poll numbers, from poll aggregators like 538 or RealClearPolitics, for a specific number of days into a presidential term or for a particular date prior to an election, those dates or points in time and their associated polling percentages do not reflect polling surveys made or released on that specific day. For a given date or number of days into a term, they are aggregating polls taken up to several days prior.

In the case of RealClearPolitics, they are aggregating polls from approximately the past 10-days to three weeks. If a polling organization has released multiple polls during that time period, they use only the most recent. If you look at the list of individual polls they display, the ones that are shaded in gray are the polls that are included in their aggregated average for a given date. 538 uses a different system that weights polls and how recent a poll was conducted is part of the weighting methodology.

The viewpoint and supporting information that I was conveying remains the same. While a single poll may be interesting to look at, aggregating multiple polls from different sources will more likely provide a broader and more accurate picture than a single snapshot from one poll.

[TechTalk]

he was mighty quick to cancel the Canadian pipeline.

The only "pipeline" that I can imagine you may be referencing is the canceled and abandoned Keystone XL extension project. Despite having 4-years of the neccessary presidential permit to build it out under Trump, construction failed to proceed due to lawsuits from farmers, landowners, and other interested parties as a direct result of the idiotic route chosen thru a large section of the Ogallala Aquifer, one of the world's largest freshwater aquifers, used for irrigation and drinking water across several states. As I stated before, there's a reason why thousands of miles of new Canadian-U.S. pipelines were completed under both the Obama and Biden administrations, including the Keystone pipeline and the new Enbridge pipeline, but the XL extension remained just a plan on paper for a decade, even with Trump's permit approval. Understanding that reason is up to you.

This stale baloney can be put out again and again for consumption by the willfully blind. Those that want to eat it up are welcome to it.

But he recently discovered that the inflation is not transitory.

What would make you think that the current rate won't go down after the current whiplash, from sudden changes producing economic shockwaves during the pandemic, has had time to stabilize? Do you have some reason to think that it's permanent?

[PeterAit]

Nearly all the types of approval or election polls are conducted over multiple days and not on a single day. The exception may be certain types on online polling.

I don't see the point of these approval polls. Maybe near an election, but every day (it seems)? And we have a lot of people who will approve of Biden simply because he is not Trump, and a lot of people who will disapprove of Biden simply because he is not Trump. I guess it keeps the pollsters employed.

[TechTalk]

Beyond providing a current reflection of public sentiment, it produces a historical record by which to compare public reaction to events. Various pollsters will produce polls at different intervals, few (if any) are producing daily tracking polls. Compiling a tracking poll is one of the things that aggregators provide. I wouldn't worry about polling survey firms finding employment as a sizable proportion of their income is derived from conducting surveys of consumer trends and opinions of brands, products, messaging, advertising, etc. for all types of business clients.

[TechTalk]

Another source that tracks presidential approval polls and compares the current presidential approval to their predecessor is Ballotpedia. In addition, they are an excellent resource for a wide variety of information on how elections are conducted in the United States which anyone interested is encouraged to explore. The following link also offers basic information regarding polling generally. Their presidential approval summary for this week is:

HIGHLIGHTS

• President Biden's approval rating for the 41st week of his term was 43.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from the week before. President Trump's approval rating at the same point in his term was 38.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the week before.

• President Biden's termwide approval rating average is 50.8%, with weekly averages ranging from 43.8% to 54.4%.

• At this point in President Trump's term, his termwide approval rating average was 40.9%, with weekly averages ranging from 37.3% to 45.9%

A chart of Biden and Trump weekly approval ratings is Linked Here.

[Alan Klein]

Nearly all the types of approval or election polls are conducted over multiple days and not on a single day. The exception may be certain types on online polling.

For clarification, when looking at approval or poll numbers, from poll aggregators like 538 or RealClearPolitics, for a specific number of days into a presidential term or for a particular date prior to an election, those dates or points in time and their associated polling percentages do not reflect polling surveys made or released on that specific day. For a given date or number of days into a term, they are aggregating polls taken up to several days prior.

In the case of RealClearPolitics, they are aggregating polls from approximately the past 10-days to three weeks. If a polling organization has released multiple polls during that time period, they use only the most recent. If you look at the list of individual polls they display, the ones that are shaded in gray are the polls that are included in their aggregated average for a given date. 538 uses a different system that weights polls and how recent a poll was conducted is part of the weighting methodology.

The viewpoint and supporting information that I was conveying remains the same. While a single poll may be interesting to look at, aggregating multiple polls from different sources will more likely provide a broader and more accurate picture than a single snapshot from one poll.

Anyway you calculate it, Biden tanked in the polls because Americans don't like his policies.

[TechTalk]

Here's an interview with one of the Washington Post reporters that contributed to the Post's multi-part story on the Jan 6th storming of the US Capitol, https://www.npr.org/2021/11/04/1052346130/before-during-after-the-jan-6-attack-on-the-capitol. It's fascinating and revealing stuff.

Thanks for posting this. I listened to it yesterday. It's hard to beat the combination of an interviewer as respected as Terry Gross with an investigative reporter as skilled as Carol Leonnig.

Below is a link to the Washington Post series mentioned. As far as I can tell, it is freely available to read and not behind their usual paywall.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2021/jan-6-insurrection-capitol

[Alan Klein]

The only "pipeline" that I can imagine you may be referencing is the canceled and abandoned Keystone XL extension project. Despite having 4-years of the neccessary presidential permit to build it out under Trump, construction failed to proceed due to lawsuits from farmers, landowners, and other interested parties as a direct result of the idiotic route chosen thru a large section of the Ogallala Aquifer, one of the world's largest freshwater aquifers, used for irrigation and drinking water across several states. As I stated before, there's a reason why thousands of miles of new Canadian-U.S. pipelines were completed under both the Obama and Biden administrations, including the Keystone pipeline and the new Enbridge pipeline, but the XL extension remained just a plan on paper for a decade, even with Trump's permit approval. Understanding that reason is up to you.

This stale baloney can be put out again and again for consumption by the willfully blind. Those that want to eat it up are welcome to it.

What would make you think that the current rate won't go down after the current whiplash, from sudden changes producing economic shockwaves during the pandemic, has had time to stabilize? Do you have some reason to think that it's permanent?

Biden's negative policies on oil including pipelines  have caused gasoline prices to go up about 60%. That's why his polls are so lousy, agradated or not.  You can't make a silk purse fron a sow's ear.

[Alan Klein]

I don't see the point of these approval polls. Maybe near an election, but every day (it seems)? And we have a lot of people who will approve of Biden simply because he is not Trump, and a lot of people who will disapprove of Biden simply because he is not Trump. I guess it keeps the pollsters employed.

well we just had an election that shows his approval rating probably affected how it came out. We are going to have another election in 12 months. So the president's approval is also very important for the whole party and the other people who are running for election. 

Polls also help elected officials to know if they're on the right track with their policies.  It may help congressman and Senators to change their minds on legislation as well.

[LesPalenik]

RE: inflation
What would make you think that the current rate won't go down after the current whiplash, from sudden changes producing economic shockwaves during the pandemic, has had time to stabilize? Do you have some reason to think that it's permanent?

Pandemic and government response to it caused all kinds of inefficiences, lowered productivity, labour shortages, disruptions in supply chain, and unfortunately also creation of many new government agencies. which all contributed to a record inflation. Even when the productivity goes again eventually up, there will be a lot of damage caused by increased inflation and bloated government during 2021-2023 years.

[TechTalk]

Please remove "RE: inflatgion" from the quote portion of your post. It isn't a quote from me and "inflatgion" is not a word that I know nor would ever use.

[TechTalk]

Pandemic and government response to it caused all kinds of inefficiences, lowered productivity, labour shortages, disruptions in supply chain, and unfortunately also creation of many new government agencies. which all contributed to a record inflation. Even when the productivity goes again eventually up, there will be a lot of damage caused by increased inflation and bloated government during 2021-2023 years.

Where can I find a list which shows the "creation of many new government agencies"? How many "new government agencies" were created? Like the rest of your reply it's rather fuzzy.

You toss a global pandemic into the same bag as government's response and then make broad references to "inefficiencies, lowered productivity, labour shortages, disruptions in supply chain" caused by both. Obviously a global pandemic, like the one we have been experiencing is going to have a major impact on all of those things. Likewise, how effectively or ineffectively governments around the world respond in controlling and limiting the spread and severity of the disease has an impact on how long and how severe the pandemic will be and subsequently affecting the economic fallout from it.

The introduction of vaccines are naturally playing a major role in all of this. The U.S. government has had a major role in both the development of current vaccines (thru the NIAID) and their rapid production (thru BARDA). Other nation's governments have also made major contributions to creating vaccines as a beginning to getting this pandemic under control.

I think that it was widely expected that the depressed economy in 2020 snapping upward rapidly in 2021 would affect inflation. Perhaps you have a different understanding of what transitory means than I. The antonym of transitory is permanent. Do you have some reason to think that the current inflation rate is permanent?

Chart: Latest Inflation Jump Relative To Others - Year-Over-Year Change Since 1970

[Alan Klein]

Pandemic and government response to it caused all kinds of inefficiences, lowered productivity, labour shortages, disruptions in supply chain, and unfortunately also creation of many new government agencies. which all contributed to a record inflation. Even when the productivity goes again eventually up, there will be a lot of damage caused by increased inflation and bloated government during 2021-2023 years.

Milton Friedman famously said, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output."

Inflation is a monetary issue created by too much printing.  Other issues have temporary effects that affect certain areas of the economy but not the whole economy,  As costs go up in some areas due to economic variables of supply and demand and other effects you mentioned, there is less money to raise prices in other areas. So the overall CPI will stay even as long as productivity remains the same.

The problem we're facing now is the Fed and many other central banks in other countries have printed too much while productivity has decreased.  So we have too much money chasing too few goods.  This bids up prices.  While printing is scheduled to be reduced, nothing's happened yet. Printing still continues at huge amounts - $120 billion per month in the USA.  That along with low interest rates not based on supply and demand allows people and companies to borrow too much creating even more high prices and bubbles. 

Also, keep in mind that disruption in the supply chain with fewer people around to handle is aggravated by printing.  That allows people who are out of work and others to spend like they still are producing and earning a living.  Of course, China is sending the products since we are;t producing.    More money chasing fewer goods.  So the inflation itself is creating these economic problems with labor, trucking, cargo ships, etc.  Of course, the politicians don't want to admit that it's their policies causing it.  Their deficit spending and printing is causing higher prices.   They want to blame workers, and ships, and COvid.  They always blame others when they are the cause of higher prices due to printing - too much inflation.

[Alan Klein]

Where can I find a list which shows the "creation of many new government agencies"? How many "new government agencies" were created? Like the rest of your reply it's rather fuzzy.

You toss a global pandemic into the same bag as government's response and then make broad references to "inefficiencies, lowered productivity, labour shortages, disruptions in supply chain" caused by both. Obviously a global pandemic, like the one we have been experiencing is going to have a major impact on all of those things. Likewise, how effectively or ineffectively governments around the world respond in controlling and limiting the spread and severity of the disease has an impact on how long and how severe the pandemic will be and subsequently affecting the economic fallout from it.

The introduction of vaccines are naturally playing a major role in all of this. The U.S. government has had a major role in both the development of current vaccines (thru the NIAID) and their rapid production (thru BARDA). Other nation's governments have also made major contributions to creating vaccines as a beginning to getting this pandemic under control.

I think that it was widely expected that the depressed economy in 2020 snapping upward rapidly in 2021 would affect inflation. Perhaps you have a different understanding of what transitory means than I. The antonym of transitory is permanent. Do you have some reason to think that the current inflation rate is permanent?

Infation is printing.  It is not higher prices.  Everyone confuses the two.

Also, the economy didn't snap back.  The government gave out trillions of printed dollars much of it to people out of work and business that were shut down.  This created a fake demand during a period of lower productivity.  This pushed prices higher as more dollars were chasing and bidding up the price of fewer goods. 

[PeterAit]

Biden's negative policies on oil including pipelines  have caused gasoline prices to go up about 60%. That's why his polls are so lousy, agradated or not.  You can't make a silk purse fron a sow's ear.

Biden is not to blame for the gas prices. It's the oil companies trying to suck as much profit as they can.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/12/business/oil-gas-biden-portugal-tesla-nightcap/index.html

Note also that domestic refiners are exporting more gas than they have in several years, thus helping the scarcity and high prices here.

Note also that despite all the pleas from Biden, OPEC has refused to increase production.

[James Clark]

Biden's negative policies on oil including pipelines  have caused gasoline prices to go up about 60%. That's why his polls are so lousy, agradated or not.  You can't make a silk purse fron a sow's ear.

Stop the bullshit, Alan.  Come on.  Which of Obama's policies were so helpful to gas process throughout his terms?  What Trump policies caused a huge jump in prices in 2017/2018?

[Alan Klein]

Biden is not to blame for the gas prices. It's the oil companies trying to suck as much profit as they can.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/12/business/oil-gas-biden-portugal-tesla-nightcap/index.html

Note also that domestic refiners are exporting more gas than they have in several years, thus helping the scarcity and high prices here.

Note also that despite all the pleas from Biden, OPEC has refused to increase production.

Why should OPEC increase production? They don't owe us anything.  In any case, America can make up the slack with its own production if Biden would let the oil companies do it.  He'd rather beg the Arabs.   How embarrassing?
 

[Alan Klein]

Stop the bullshit, Alan.  Come on.  Which of Obama's policies were so helpful to gas process throughout his terms?  What Trump policies caused a huge jump in prices in 2017/2018?

Voters will blame higher gasoline prices on Biden's opposition to domestic oil production and pipelines combined with inflation.  Of course, between me and you, there are other factors.  But you'll never convince the public of them.  Biden and the Democrats are going to get the blame.  They're in charge.   

[TechTalk]

Stop the bullshit, Alan.  Come on.  Which of Obama's policies were so helpful to gas process throughout his terms?  What Trump policies caused a huge jump in prices in 2017/2018?

Did you get any responsive answers to your questions or just more of the same?

Biden's negative policies on oil including pipelines have caused gasoline prices to go up about 60%.

Of course, between me and you, there are other factors.

Just in case anyone was wondering why I find this kind of game pointless.

[TechTalk]

From Forbes October 22, 2021...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2021/10/22/the-us-oil-supply-is-still-out-of-balance

The U.S. Oil Supply Is Still Out Of Balance

You may find it curious that the price of oil is still above $80 a barrel. This is also why gasoline prices are at the highest levels since 2014. But, there is a good explanation for it.

In January 2020, just before the Covid-19 pandemic began to sweep across the U.S., domestic oil production was 12.8 million barrels per day (BPD). Production remained at that level for a couple of months despite the double-whammy of a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, and growing demand destruction as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.

But the situation was untenable. The price of oil eventually fell to zero and then kept going. That forced some producers into bankruptcy, resulting in the largest short-term oil production drop in U.S. history.

Production declined all the way to 9.7 million BPD in May 2020 (which was the month after oil prices went negative), but has since bounced back to 11.3 million BPD.

Meanwhile, U.S. oil demand has jumped back above 21.8 million BPD, which is where it was prior to the Covid-induced plunge. This loss of supply and recovery of demand is the biggest reason we have $80/bbl oil today when it was only $60/bbl just before the pandemic.

The loss of supply has caused the U.S. to lose its briefly-held status as a net exporter of petroleum and petroleum products. That number had trended down from a high of 13 million BPD of imports in 2005 all the way to over a million BPD of exports in 2020. Now we have returned to net importer status, most recently importing a net average of 1.3 million BPD over the past four weeks.

But there are some signs that help may be on the way. In January 2020 there were nearly 700 rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. By the summer of 2020, that number had fallen below 200. The rig count has steadily recovered over the past year to reach 445 — the highest level since the pandemic started.

The downside is that it can take months at a minimum for new drilling activity to turn into oil production. So don’t rush out and buy that gas guzzler just yet.

Chart from Forbes Article Above: April-May, 2020 - Largest Short-Term Oil Production Drop in U.S. History