Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa

[Robert Roaldi]

I just checked Worldometer and the 7-day moving average daily deaths in the US is stubbornly staying at the 850-950 level.

The Canadian number had recently been climbing to the 50 deaths per day level but acceleration is now beginning to level off.

[Alan Klein]

I just checked Worldometer and the 7-day moving average daily deaths in the US is stubbornly staying at the 850-950 level.

The Canadian number had recently been climbing to the 50 deaths per day level but acceleration is now beginning to level off.

My town in NJ had its lowest weekly number of cases since the beginning of the year, around 1/7 the amount the first week in January then.   About 1/2 what they were two weeks ago.  Deaths are still running about 50% that occurred in long-term care facilities. So it's getting a lot better.  My poker games have started up again as all the players are vaccinated including me.  But my wife is still too nervous about me going so I have to skip it to keep peace in the family.  😇

[Alan Klein]

It's not just ID - it's type of ID and access to acquire said ID, not to mention access to actual voting.  It's all of it.  If you want to argue that everyone voting should have some sort of ID that's reasonably secure, and as many convenient and easy ways to vote as possible to cover a wide variety of life situations, you won't get anywhere near as much pushback from me. 

So for example:  Everyone has to have some sort of ID - utility bill, School ID, WIC card, whatever.  But once you do that, it needs to be as easy as possible to vote.  No question mail in voting, more dropboxes, extended voting hours etc. - all of it.  But that's not what's happening.  Did you note the link I posted above about the NC 4th Circuit case?  They killed a voting day *because that's when black people vote.*  That's repulsive, isn't it??

James, Here's the new ID and voting law in Florida.  It seems one that allows pretty open voting but additional security.  I think the ID concerns you had are satisfied. They satisfy my concerns about not sending out ballots carte blanche. if not asked for them by the voter.  Not sure how you would consider the other rules.  (see the article for the rest). What do you think?

The bill would add ID requirements for voters requesting to vote by mail. Voters would have to provide either their driver's license or state ID number or the last four digits of their Social Security Number when asking for a mail ballot. The bill would also require this information to register to vote or to update a voter's registration.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/florida-passes-election-bill-that-would-make-changes-to-mail-voting/

[Alan Klein]

Firstly, poker is a non-essential activity and secondly you can play it safely with your friends online, there are plenty of apps for that.

Poker's no fun on-line.  It's hard to bluff. You can't see the other player's physical moves and look into their eyes before you bet or raise. 

[LesPalenik]

My town in NJ had its lowest weekly number of cases since the beginning of the year, around 1/7 the amount the first week in January then.   About 1/2 what they were two weeks ago.  Deaths are still running about 50% that occurred in long-term care facilities. So it's getting a lot better.  My poker games have started up again as all the players are vaccinated including me.  But my wife is still too nervous about me going so I have to skip it to keep peace in the family.  😇

I agree with your wife. Firstly, poker is a non-essential activity and secondly you can play it safely with your friends online, there are plenty of apps for that.

[JoeKitchen]

Poker's no fun on-line.  It's hard to bluff. You can't see the other player's physical moves and look into their eyes before you bet or raise.

As an avid poker player, I agree, poker online is not poker, full fucking stop!  It sucks the life out of it and makes it about nothing but odds. 

There are two aspects of playing poker, knowing the odds and reading the players.  And reading the player breaks down into a few aspects, with only really be able to be read online, that being how a person changes betting strategy due to position.  For those of you are not avid poker players, if I have a King 10, a fairly strong hand in Texas Hold'em, how I bet will be different depending on where I am at in the order.  If I am to bet first, I may limp in covering just the blinds and watch how others bet.  If I am last though, I may choose to fold or go big depending on how others bet.  This is obvious to any poker player, but reading the nuances of reaction is just not possible online and will alter how well you can read the situation. 

For instance, if I am last to bet with a King 10 and someone goes in with a 5 times the blinds bet, a pretty strong bet for the first call, I may decide based on observation and prior experience he is bull shitting and double him up.  This is a common tactic with a buddy of mine, betting high with shit cards.  However, with someone else I play with, if he does this, he has pocket Aces or kings, so I know not to screw with him.  Both bad tactics since they are so consistent with it, albeit the 2nd being better. 

On top of that, good players change betting strategy throughout the game, and it is hard to know if they are doing so if you are not watching them.  I do this all of the time and have become known as someone who can not be read since I change my betting strategy two to three times per game.  I also never show cards unless I have to.  With that being said, I did have one of my buddies read me in one big hand that I still cant get over.  Unfortunately for him, he told me so, boasting about it.  I let him relish in it, but changed my strategy instantly.  If I were him, I would have taken my pot, said nothing, and bled him dry for as long as I could have. 

Most of this is lost online. 

[JoeKitchen]

But anyway, getting back to politics, is this out of a Mel Brooks movie or something that actually happened? 

'We're under siege here': Texas rancher's interview with Fox over border crisis is disrupted by federal agents chasing migrants on his property as he reveals he caught three himself before breakfast

It's just getting so hard to tell with the Biden administration. 

[JoeKitchen]

I'm sorry, but this has to be out of a Mel Brooks movie.  It just has to be; you cant write this any better.  The staging, acting, even the music is perfect, especially how Biden says, "I'm looking for my mask," at the exact moment the music become a little softer and then finds it when the music say, "I'm so glad I finally found you!" 

Biden frantic after forgetting he put mask in his pocket

My lord, what a joke. 

[Alan Klein]

That's a pisser.

[PeterAit]

I'm sorry, but this has to be out of a Mel Brooks movie.  It just has to be; you cant write this any better.  The staging, acting, even the music is perfect, especially how Biden says, "I'm looking for my mask," at the exact moment the music become a little softer and then finds it when the music say, "I'm so glad I finally found you!" 

Biden frantic after forgetting he put mask in his pocket

My lord, what a joke.

So what? I'd rather have a president who over-worries about his mask than one who suggests injecting disinfectant.

And what kind of knuckle-dragger reads the NY Post anyway? "Headless body in topless bar." "Bezos exposes pecker."

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

I'm sorry, but this has to be out of a Mel Brooks movie.  It just has to be; you cant write this any better.  The staging, acting, even the music is perfect, especially how Biden says, "I'm looking for my mask," at the exact moment the music become a little softer and then finds it when the music say, "I'm so glad I finally found you!" 

Biden frantic after forgetting he put mask in his pocket

My lord, what a joke.

Covid-19 is no jole. With more and more empirical data indicating that, even when vaccinated, Covid-19 is transmissible to others? It seems like the prudent thing to do.

[JoeKitchen]

Covid-19 is no jole. With more and more empirical data indicating that, even when vaccinated, Covid-19 is transmissible to others? It seems like the prudent thing to do.

Sure, C-19 is not a joke, but how people are reacting to it certainly can be, like our Co-President Joe Biden.  And no, after being vaccinated, you can not transfer this to others at any higher rates then with other illnesses we also vaccinate against.  If you disagree, please show me the money! and make sure you read my request very closely because I will call you out on it if you did not. 

Please Bart, stop being purposely obtuse when everyone knows for a fact you know what I was getting at.  You're smarter then that. 

[JoeKitchen]

So what? I'd rather have a president who over-worries about his mask than one who suggests injecting disinfectant.

And what kind of knuckle-dragger reads the NY Post anyway? "Headless body in topless bar." "Bezos exposes pecker."

Once again Peter, you are showing your propensity to believe far left wing conspiracy theories and portray them as fact.  Out of everyone I know, on and off this forum, you are the one who most propagates conspiracy theories, and I know my fair share of crazies. 

BTW, do you still believe that woman in AZ who murdered her husband by giving him fish bowl cleaner was because of Trump, or have you, like the police, come to the reality that she wanted to murder her husband for a while and used that as cover? 

Insofar as my choice of news source, first I could say the same thing about the NYTs.  Oh how far the grey lady has fallen.  Let me know when she hits rock bottom; I have thought it happened a few times already, but she keeps on going further down.  Second, the choose of using the Post was because it was the first link that showed containing the video, which BTW is authentic and something I noticed you said nothing about. 

Nice ad hominem on the post. 

[JoeKitchen]

Annnnnd ... another crazy proposal bites the dust!

Manchin deals DC statehood -- and Dems -- another blow

(Is this why you are so angry today Peter?)

I have to give Manchin mad props here, and not just for agreeing with the correct course of thought on this, but that he is bucking his party in epic proportion.  That takes balls of steel, which to be honest I falsely did not think he had.  I was wrong. 

Stay strong Joe Manchin, stay strong!

This kind of makes me think back a couple of months to when we all talking about PR becoming a state.  Where is that proposal?  No Dem is talking about that anymore?  You don't need an amendment to take care of this and there may be enough Republican support to get it through.  Could it be that PR leans right, according to all polling and voting history, and there is a better chance of electing two Republicans instead of Dems, costing Schumer his majority? 

Where is that PR state bill?  It's almost like no one ever actually talked about it. 

[PeterAit]

Once again Peter, you are showing your propensity to believe far left wing conspiracy theories and portray them as fact.  Out of everyone I know, on and off this forum, you are the one who most propagates conspiracy theories, and I know my fair share of crazies. 

BTW, do you still believe that woman in AZ who murdered her husband by giving him fish bowl cleaner was because of Trump, or have you, like the police, come to the reality that she wanted to murder her husband for a while and used that as cover? 

Insofar as my choice of news source, first I could say the same thing about the NYTs.  Oh how far the grey lady has fallen.  Let me know when she hits rock bottom; I have thought it happened a few times already, but she keeps on going further down.  Second, the choose of using the Post was because it was the first link that showed containing the video, which BTW is authentic and something I noticed you said nothing about. 

Nice ad hominem on the post.

My Dad tried to teach me not to argue with idiots because they'll always outlast you. I keep forgetting.

[Chris Kern]

My Dad tried to teach me not to argue with idiots because they'll always outlast you. I keep forgetting.

I really don't think the right-wing populists can simply be characterized as idiots.  They're angry and resentful at what they consider to be the condescension of "the elites" who weathered first the 2009 recession and then the pandemic with minimal adverse economic consequences, subsequently to preach to them about so-called "cultural issues"—note the hysterical reaction the supercilious "woke" phenomenon unleashes among them—all of which makes them impervious to rational argument.

Their rage may be excessive, but their economic grievances are legitimate and the liberal "elites" certainly have become increasingly self-righteous.  (Personally, I'd put them right up there with the evangelicals.)

The left-wing populists share the economic grievances of their siblings-in-anger on the right, which helped create a perfect political storm that Donald Trump was able to exploit to build a working-class coalition that, added to the traditional conservatives who decided they could stomach Trump's egregious behavior on the theory that a Republican Congress could get him to sign off on federal legislation and regulations that benefited their economic interests, led to his installation in the White House.

The conservatives got what they expected in the tax reduction enacted by the Republican majority in Congress and the roll-back of federal regulations that Trump's political appointees approved.  The populists never received the tangible payoffs Trump promised them, but he provided a four-year channel for their fury, which hasn't abated yet.

Whether President Biden can calm them down with his legislative program and his rhetorical appeals to the "middle class" is very much an open question, but your father was correct: facts and logic rarely are effective in neutralizing strong emotions.

[Alan Klein]

I really don't think the right-wing populists can simply be characterized as idiots.  They're angry and resentful at what they consider to be the condescension of "the elites" who weathered first the 2009 recession and then the pandemic with minimal adverse economic consequences, subsequently to preach to them about so-called "cultural issues"—note the hysterical reaction the supercilious "woke" phenomenon unleashes among them—all of which makes them impervious to rational argument.

Their rage may be excessive, but their economic grievances are legitimate and the liberal "elites" certainly have become increasingly self-righteous.  (Personally, I'd put them right up there with the evangelicals.)

The left-wing populists share the economic grievances of their siblings-in-anger on the right, which helped create a perfect political storm that Donald Trump was able to exploit to build a working-class coalition that, added to the traditional conservatives who decided they could stomach Trump's egregious behavior on the theory that a Republican Congress could get him to sign off on federal legislation and regulations that benefited their economic interests, led to his installation in the White House.

The conservatives got what they expected in the tax reduction enacted by the Republican majority in Congress and the roll-back of federal regulations that Trump's political appointees approved.  The populists never received the tangible payoffs Trump promised them, but he provided a four-year channel for their fury, which hasn't abated yet.

Whether President Biden can calm them down with his legislative program and his rhetorical appeals to the "middle class" is very much an open question, but your father was correct: facts and logic rarely are effective in neutralizing strong emotions.

All the spending that Biden proposes to make middle and lower income people happier, has a good chance of backfiring.  As what happened after 2008, the money injected raises asset values that mainly the richer people benefitted from.  The same probably will happen again only on a bigger scale.  While higher taxes will claw back some of that, most still will go to asset owners and the well-connected. 

Higher prices due to inflation will kick in as well, hurting everyone, especially the middle and lower classes whose paychecks won't keep up with higher prices.  If all that happens before the 2022 election, the Democrats will lose big time.  Especially if the economy tanks along with higher prices.  In the end, everyone is going to get hurt as the Fed keeps printing.  Even a liberal economist like Summers is seeing dark clouds approaching because of it.

[Alan Klein]

Will Biden have to reverse his pullout promise to leave by Sept 11th?  So now, he'll have to respond by hitting the Taliban target very hard.  Or will he?  This is a test that the Chinese are watching closely along with NK, Riussia, and Iran.  If he fails it, it's going to encourage them to get more brazen.  It's why Trump ordered the missile attack on Syrian bases early in his presidency while having dessert with Xi in Mar-a-lago.  Now Biden has to make the same point to impress our adversaries that he can't be played with.   

Afghan Blast on Eve of U.S. Pullout Deadline Kills at Least 27
If the blast was the work of the Taliban, as the Afghan government asserts, it would be the most overt signal yet that the peace deal is off.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/01/world/europe/us-withdrawal-afghanistan-blast.html

[JoeKitchen]

My Dad tried to teach me not to argue with idiots because they'll always outlast you. I keep forgetting.

You know, if you did not post every crazy left wing conspiracy theory that came across your screen, I would almost be able to read this without laughing. 

With everything I see you post, I could use you as my primary source if I wanted to start a left wing version of Info Wars. 

BTW, care to comment on the actual video? 

[JoeKitchen]

Will Biden have to reverse his pullout promise to leave by Sept 11th?  So now, he'll have to respond by hitting the Taliban target very hard.  Or will he?  This is a test that the Chinese are watching closely along with NK, Riussia, and Iran.  If he fails it, it's going to encourage them to get more brazen.  It's why Trump ordered the missile attack on Syrian bases early in his presidency while having dessert with Xi in Mar-a-lago.  Now Biden has to make the same point to impress our adversaries that he can't be played with.   

Afghan Blast on Eve of U.S. Pullout Deadline Kills at Least 27
If the blast was the work of the Taliban, as the Afghan government asserts, it would be the most overt signal yet that the peace deal is off.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/01/world/europe/us-withdrawal-afghanistan-blast.html

The save-the-date cards have already gone out from the White House to the Taliban.  Just think of all money he would waste on the printing if he were to backtrack now.