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Author Topic: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa  (Read 318128 times)

Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #13600 on: January 14, 2022, 09:04:58 pm »

Despite the higher electricity cost in Germany, it is still cheaper there to charge EV than to fill up a gas tank. The gas costs there are also 2 to 2.5 times higher there than in US.
EV sales in Germany are now over 30% of the total car sales and going up every month.
You didn't respond to my question about the depreciation of the costly battery.  The savings from using electricity instead of gasoline, which apparently is real, has to be offset by the higher cost of an EV.  You have to add in the higher purchase price of the EV when calculating the savings.  Everyone seems to avoid doing that, for obvious reasons.  So what are the real numbers?

Let me run a guesstimate.  Let's say you pay $10,000 more for an EV than an equivalent gas car.  Let's say you keep it for 7 years and sell it for 30% of the original price meaning there was a 70% depreciation. (That could be wrong estimate but humor me for now.)  That means you've written off $7000 of the $10,000 leaving $3000 back to you.  $7000 divided by 7 years is $1000 a year.  So add $1000 a year to your electricity charging costs to get a better handle on the real cost of running an EV.  Of course, the real numbers are based on what the extra amount was when purchased it and the depreciation value when you sold it.  But you get the idea.  It's a lot of money.

James Clark

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #13601 on: January 14, 2022, 09:17:40 pm »

You didn't respond to my question about the depreciation of the costly battery.  The savings from using electricity instead of gasoline, which apparently is real, has to be offset by the higher cost of an EV.  You have to add in the higher purchase price of the EV when calculating the savings.  Everyone seems to avoid doing that, for obvious reasons.  So what are the real numbers?

Let me run a guesstimate.  Let's say you pay $10,000 more for an EV than an equivalent gas car.  Let's say you keep it for 7 years and sell it for 30% of the original price meaning there was a 70% depreciation. (That could be wrong estimate but humor me for now.)  That means you've written off $7000 of the $10,000 leaving $3000 back to you.  $7000 divided by 7 years is $1000 a year.  So add $1000 a year to your electricity charging costs to get a better handle on the real cost of running an EV.  Of course, the real numbers are based on what the extra amount was when purchased it and the depreciation value when you sold it.  But you get the idea.  It's a lot of money.

Where are you getting this from?  A MINI SE is basically the same price as a gas powered MINI (without any rebates).  A Tesla is basically the same price as the equivalent BMW or Benz high end sedan (and Tesla doesn't qualify for federal rebates anymore, BTW), and those big BMWs and Benz sedans depreciate like crazy.   So does any other car (except this year, I guess). Then add in the fact that you don't need to change the oil (have you priced a dealer oil change for a high end Euro car lately? it's hundreds of dollars).  That also adds up over 10 years.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2022, 09:26:14 pm by James Clark »
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #13602 on: January 14, 2022, 09:20:39 pm »

You didn't respond to my question about the depreciation of the costly battery.  The savings from using electricity instead of gasoline, which apparently is real, has to be offset by the higher cost of an EV.  You have to add in the higher purchase price of the EV when calculating the savings.  Everyone seems to avoid doing that, for obvious reasons.  So what are the real numbers?

Let me run a guesstimate.  Let's say you pay $10,000 more for an EV than an equivalent gas car.  Let's say you keep it for 7 years and sell it for 30% of the original price meaning there was a 70% depreciation. (That could be wrong estimate but humor me for now.)  That means you've written off $7000 of the $10,000 leaving $3000 back to you.  $7000 divided by 7 years is $1000 a year.  So add $1000 a year to your electricity charging costs to get a better handle on the real cost of running an EV.  Of course, the real numbers are based on what the extra amount was when purchased it and the depreciation value when you sold it.  But you get the idea.  It's a lot of money.

In Canada, so far as I know, all the PHEV and EV models come with very long warranties (8 years?) Turbos wear out, valves wear out, transmissions break, etc. Replacing a battery every 8 years may not be so terrible.

And yes, the initial prices for EVs are high, as they are with any newly introduced product. Remember when people said that full-frame was never going to be mainstream because of "physics". Commodity pricing is driven primarily by production volume.

If ICE vehicles had been invented in only 1997, what would people's estimates be for the construction of all the oil fields and refineries and gasoline stations around the world.

Why do we have to constantly lecture so-called conservatives about how markets actually operate? Haven't you figured it out yet?  :)
« Last Edit: January 14, 2022, 09:28:16 pm by Robert Roaldi »
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James Clark

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #13603 on: January 14, 2022, 09:25:05 pm »

In Canada, so far as I know, all the PHEV and EV models come with very long warranties (8 years?) Turbos wear out, valves wear out, transmissions break, etc. Replacing a battery every 8 years may not be so terrible.

This.  I can tell you for 100% certainty that it would be cheaper to replace a Tesla battery pack than an AMG Mercedes engine, for example.
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #13604 on: January 14, 2022, 09:30:14 pm »

This.  I can tell you for 100% certainty that it would be cheaper to replace a Tesla battery pack than an AMG Mercedes engine, for example.

No doubt. I look at high-end automobile web sites now and then for yucks and get nosebleeds.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #13605 on: January 14, 2022, 09:56:22 pm »

Where are you getting this from?  A MINI SE is basically the same price as a gas powered MINI (without any rebates).  A Tesla is basically the same price as the equivalent BMW or Benz high end sedan (and Tesla doesn't qualify for federal rebates anymore, BTW), and those big BMWs and Benz sedans depreciate like crazy.   So does any other car (except this year, I guess). Then add in the fact that you don't need to change the oil (have you priced a dealer oil change for a high end Euro car lately? it's hundreds of dollars).  That also adds up over 10 years.
Jim, I didn't make up the price differences. It's what's out there, even as Les says. 

Also, keep in mind there are differences in the quality of workmanship.  Better leather, better sound, better-integrated console not some cheap iPad with no control knobs to reduce fiddling while you're driving.  To me, a Tesla 3 looks like a cheap Toyota Corolla that costs many thousands less.  Because of the extra cost of the batteries, they scrimp on the quality of other things to keep the price competitive. 

Of course, as the price of batteries continues to decrease, that will change.  Let competition get going and I think things will get better, both pricing and quality.  It's still too new.  It's like digital cameras when they first came out.  Interesting concept, exciting to play with, but film was still better.  That's changed.  Well, I suspect similar things will happen with EVs. 

Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #13606 on: January 14, 2022, 10:01:57 pm »

This.  I can tell you for 100% certainty that it would be cheaper to replace a Tesla battery pack than an AMG Mercedes engine, for example.
But a Tesla battery pack is guaranteed to need replacement after 8 or 10 years.  It starts losing efficiency even earlier than that. Most gasoline engines today and transmissions are very reliable and nobody figures they'll have to be replaced in ten years.

Curious.  What's the repair situation with the Tesla wheel motors?  I haven't heard anything about them so they must be reliable.  Of course, the cars haven't been on the road that long.

James Clark

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #13607 on: January 14, 2022, 10:03:14 pm »

Jim, I didn't make up the price differences. It's what's out there, even as Les says. 

Also, keep in mind there are differences in the quality of workmanship.  Better leather, better sound, better-integrated console not some cheap iPad with no control knobs to reduce fiddling while you're driving.  To me, a Tesla 3 looks like a cheap Toyota Corolla that costs many thousands less.  Because of the extra cost of the batteries, they scrimp on the quality of other things to keep the price competitive. 

Of course, as the price of batteries continues to decrease, that will change.  Let competition get going and I think things will get better, both pricing and quality.  It's still too new.  It's like digital cameras when they first came out.  Interesting concept, exciting to play with, but film was still better.  That's changed.  Well, I suspect similar things will happen with EVs.

I can’t find Les’s link?  But regardless, I’m telling you, at least with regard to my MINI, there is absolutely 100% Not a 10k price difference.  Or any significant price difference really.  There are other trade offs, both positive and negative. The electric handles better. The gas has more range.  But I can recharge every night and never go to a gas station in the electric Etc etc.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #13608 on: January 14, 2022, 11:24:10 pm »

You didn't respond to my question about the depreciation of the costly battery.  The savings from using electricity instead of gasoline, which apparently is real, has to be offset by the higher cost of an EV.  You have to add in the higher purchase price of the EV when calculating the savings.  Everyone seems to avoid doing that, for obvious reasons.  So what are the real numbers?

Let me run a guesstimate.  Let's say you pay $10,000 more for an EV than an equivalent gas car.  Let's say you keep it for 7 years and sell it for 30% of the original price meaning there was a 70% depreciation. (That could be wrong estimate but humor me for now.)  That means you've written off $7000 of the $10,000 leaving $3000 back to you.  $7000 divided by 7 years is $1000 a year.  So add $1000 a year to your electricity charging costs to get a better handle on the real cost of running an EV.  Of course, the real numbers are based on what the extra amount was when purchased it and the depreciation value when you sold it.  But you get the idea.  It's a lot of money.

It is a reasonablly sound estimate. Actually, the battery will last much longer than 7 years with negligible loss in the performance. Easily 10-15 years. And after that time the battery can be re-purposed as a Powerwall in your garage and giving you another 10 years for charging your car and powering your house.
 
Furthermore, the battery costs will come down in the coming years. If you save $2,000 per year in operational costs (fuel and repairs), then $1,000 annual amortized battery cost is a good deal. If you drive only 5,000 miles per year, it might be cheaper to hire a taxi (soon Robotaxi) than to own a car. If you decide to run a car with FSD as a Robotaxi, it will be profitable even if you have to pay $100K for FSD.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #13609 on: January 15, 2022, 07:05:51 am »

Jim, I didn't make up the price differences. It's what's out there, even as Les says. 

Also, keep in mind there are differences in the quality of workmanship.  Better leather, better sound, better-integrated console not some cheap iPad with no control knobs to reduce fiddling while you're driving.  To me, a Tesla 3 looks like a cheap Toyota Corolla that costs many thousands less.  Because of the extra cost of the batteries, they scrimp on the quality of other things to keep the price competitive. 

Of course, as the price of batteries continues to decrease, that will change.  Let competition get going and I think things will get better, both pricing and quality.  It's still too new.  It's like digital cameras when they first came out.  Interesting concept, exciting to play with, but film was still better.  That's changed.  Well, I suspect similar things will happen with EVs.

Tesla 3 is more luxurious than Corolla, in many ways even more luxurious than Camry or Accord. On first look that may be not obvious since Teslas are designed in a minimalistic style, but the seats, screen display and navigation are much better than in most other cars. The screen is bigger than the biggest iPad. As to the missing knobs, I agree, I prefer them myself to touch controls on the screen, but it is one thing less that can break down.
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #13610 on: January 15, 2022, 08:15:29 am »

I would like to apologize to Alan, and the forum overall, for a joke I made last night that I now realize was in very bad taste. 
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PeterAit

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #13611 on: January 15, 2022, 11:31:37 am »

Where are you getting this from?  A MINI SE is basically the same price as a gas powered MINI (without any rebates).  A Tesla is basically the same price as the equivalent BMW or Benz high end sedan (and Tesla doesn't qualify for federal rebates anymore, BTW), and those big BMWs and Benz sedans depreciate like crazy.   So does any other car (except this year, I guess). Then add in the fact that you don't need to change the oil (have you priced a dealer oil change for a high end Euro car lately? it's hundreds of dollars).  That also adds up over 10 years.

Yes, you are exactly right. We just bought an EV, a Volkswagen ID4, that cost about $50K. It has every feature I can think of and a few I can't. In terms of comfort and performance it matches or betters ICE vehicles (internal combustion engine) costing 10s of thousands more. Our fuel costs are about 25% of the car it replaced. And, as has been mentioned, no oil changes or radiator flushes and the like.

And remember that some people do not put their own pocketbooks first in all situations. Even if it costs us a few more bucks, we are willing to help with making things better.

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Jonathan Cross

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #13612 on: January 15, 2022, 11:44:27 am »

Yes, you are exactly right. We just bought an EV, a Volkswagen ID4, that cost about $50K. It has every feature I can think of and a few I can't. In terms of comfort and performance it matches or betters ICE vehicles (internal combustion engine) costing 10s of thousands more. Our fuel costs are about 25% of the car it replaced. And, as has been mentioned, no oil changes or radiator flushes and the like.

And remember that some people do not put their own pocketbooks first in all situations. Even if it costs us a few more bucks, we are willing to help with making things better.

We also have now got an EV.  Very quiet, and cheap to run.  It charges at night outside our house on a cheap tariff.  No exhaust, no radiator, no sump, no gearbox other than forward or reverse,  and far fewer moving engine parts.  Engine braking means I use the brakes far less so they should have longer life. 

An important point for us is that we are not polluting as we drive around and that must be better for people who are close to where we go.

Jonathan
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Frans Waterlander

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #13613 on: January 15, 2022, 11:59:34 am »

We also have now got an EV.  Very quiet, and cheap to run.  It charges at night outside our house on a cheap tariff.  No exhaust, no radiator, no sump, no gearbox other than forward or reverse,  and far fewer moving engine parts.  Engine braking means I use the brakes far less so they should have longer life. 

An important point for us is that we are not polluting as we drive around and that must be better for people who are close to where we go.

Jonathan
Oh, yes, you are polluting! Generating electricity to charge your batteries causes pollution. Producing and discarding of the batteries causes major pollution. Studies have shown that electric vehicles and their support systems cause more pollution and use up more energy than comparable gas driven vehicles.
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James Clark

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #13614 on: January 15, 2022, 12:29:27 pm »

Oh, yes, you are polluting! Generating electricity to charge your batteries causes pollution. Producing and discarding of the batteries causes major pollution. Studies have shown that electric vehicles and their support systems cause more pollution and use up more energy than comparable gas driven vehicles.

One german study in 2019 was the main catalyst for this nonsense.  Let me help you out...  https://insideevs.com/features/347409/german-study-diesels-cleaner-electric/

Understand also that EVs have generations of improvements ahead, whereas ICE is a relatively mature technology.   It's the future - get on board, you old curmudgeon ;)
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digitaldog

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #13615 on: January 15, 2022, 01:55:23 pm »

Oh, yes, you are polluting! Generating electricity to charge your batteries causes pollution. Producing and discarding of the batteries causes major pollution. Studies have shown that electric vehicles and their support systems cause more pollution and use up more energy than comparable gas driven vehicles.
Utter rubbish.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #13616 on: January 15, 2022, 02:18:43 pm »

Oh, yes, you are polluting! Generating electricity to charge your batteries causes pollution. Producing and discarding of the batteries causes major pollution. Studies have shown that electric vehicles and their support systems cause more pollution and use up more energy than comparable gas driven vehicles.

Not really!

Quote
One argument against electric vehicles (EVs) made by those that wish to cling to the certainties of the internal combustion engine is that we need to decarbonise the power system first otherwise cars are no cleaner than if they use gasoline. Many observers question whether electric cars really are ‘greener’ once emissions from production and generating their electricity are taken into account.

Leaving aside the instant improvements in local air quality from not having harmful tailpipe emissions pumping into the atmosphere, a new study suggests that EVs help to tackle climate change in all but the most coal-reliant countries. A new study by the universities of Exeter and Cambridge in the UK and Nijmegen in the Netherlands has concluded that electric cars lead to lower carbon emissions overall, even if electricity generation still relies on fossil fuels. The results are reported in the journal Nature Sustainability.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikescott/2020/03/30/yes-electric-cars-are-cleaner-even-when-the-power-comes-from-coal/?sh=18587ead2320

As to the batteries, Redwood Materials is building the biggest battery recycling plant, which will process not only car lithium-based batteries, but also computer, lawnmower and phone batteries.
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #13617 on: January 15, 2022, 04:20:24 pm »

Oh, yes, you are polluting! Generating electricity to charge your batteries causes pollution. Producing and discarding of the batteries causes major pollution. Studies have shown that electric vehicles and their support systems cause more pollution and use up more energy than comparable gas driven vehicles.

Yes, there are costs and benefits to everything. The objective is to improve things for us. There's no need to be afraid of change, there's every benefit to understanding it.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #13618 on: January 15, 2022, 05:20:10 pm »

Oh, yes, you are polluting!

Yes, we all know that intestinal gas pollutes air. The methane is not good for the earth, it traps much more heat than carbon dioxide.
That's why Tesla developed digital flatulence engine. Now the driver can make the farting sounds on command or they can choose the randomized patterns.
You can control several locations inside the car where the sound comes from. Or direct it to the horn or boom speaker to warn the pedestrians or bad drivers on outside.
All without the methane or other noxious gases.
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Jonathan Cross

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #13619 on: January 15, 2022, 05:27:40 pm »

My electricity supplier generates more power from renewables than is needed for EVs and will continue to do so. Of course there is pollution somewhere in the chain but I am not contributing to street pollution which is serious. That is a step in cutting atmospheric pollution where people live and work.
Jonathan
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