US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)

Biden

14 (66.7%)

Trump

7 (33.3%)

Total Members Voted: 21

Voting closed: November 02, 2020, 06:25:59 pm

[LesPalenik]

As reported in the last issue of Spiegel:

The US president boasts an excellent record - this is how he wants to reach undecided voters. Even with a very friendly view, he is at best an average head of government.

The point goes something like this: Yes, Trump is often aggressive, a bully, he annoys on Twitter. You don't have to like him, but he is producing results for America. "He gets things done," says Ivanka Trump. And: "He made America great again." Just "great". This is the fairy tale of the successful Trump. The man has a character problem, but he is a doer who moves America forward. The fairy tale thrives on repetition, the more often it is told by Trump and his strategists, the more people should believe it.

It's so beautifully simple: The fairy tale even allows skeptics to vote for Trump in the election. Every decent man or woman can bring up the fairy tale at the barbecue with friends at the weekend to justify their own voting decision. This way you can calm your guilty conscience if you vote for a man who lies, divides and the racist is one of his most loyal fans.

The president's corona policy is not "great", it is quite a mess. In no other country on earth have more people died than in the USA. A look at Europe, where the management of the crisis has been far better in comparison, would be enough to make it clear to the last Trump voter that their president did not really act well during the crisis. (Unfortunately, few Trump voters seem to be looking to Europe.)

Economic policy is a sham. The upswing in the period before the crisis, which Trump claims for himself, was already initiated under Barack Obama. Trump extended it with his tax reform, i.e. financed it on credit. Above all, the rich have benefited from the tax cuts. The Americans will still be able to pay the big bill when Trump has not been in office for a long time. Sustainable structural reforms in health or social services, from which many Americans would benefit, Trump has not tackled.

The country is drifting into isolation, due to short-sighted foreign policy. Trump has alienated close allies with his aggressive approach, for example on trade issues or in the financing of NATO. Anti-Americanism is increasing in large parts of Europe. The willingness to work with Americans on important issues is decreasing rather than increasing. On the other hand, the fact that some NATO countries are now spending more on defense has not yet led to a reduction in US spending on the military. On the contrary: these have risen again under Trump.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/donald-trump-das-maerchen-vom-erfolgreichen-praesidenten-a-68bb99cf-ed30-472b-84c2-43e8db41d30f

[Alan Klein]

My understanding is that Joe Biden was carrying out bi-partisan US official policy toward a prosecutor (Shokin) that was NOT pursuing corruption in Ukraine and who was was undermining a British money-laundering probe that involved Burisma’s owner. That was also the view of our allies in the EU and elsewhere, as well as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. The US threat to withhold 1 Billion dollars in US loan guarantees was accompanied by a threat by the IMF to delay 40 Billion dollars in aid due to ongoing corruption. It was not a secret Biden effort, it was openly and widely discussed US policy with broad international support.

https://www.usatoday.com/2019/10/03/what-really-happened-when-biden-forced-out-ukraines-top-prosecutor

https://www.usatoday.com/2020/03/12/republican-senators-joe-hunter-biden-burisma-anti-corruption-loan

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/ukrainealert/why-poroshenko-s-support-for-shokin-is-dangerous

Now if your scenario is correct, you may want to re-evaluate your perceived weakness of Biden's foreign policy negotiating skills. If you're right about Biden and Ukraine, he was able to muster the weight of the EU and the world's largest international financial institutions and get Executive Branch and bi-partisan Congressional support all lined up just to help his son keep a job. And that was as Vice-President, a job that has no real power behind it. Imagine what he could do as President with something of real importance!

Obama warned Biden to remove himself from the Ukraine deal because the optics would not look good because of his son's involvement in Burisma. Biden ignored the warning.  He continued on until the prosecutor was fired. How convenient.

[Alan Klein]

As reported in the last issue of Spiegel:

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/donald-trump-das-maerchen-vom-erfolgreichen-praesidenten-a-68bb99cf-ed30-472b-84c2-43e8db41d30f

the Germans are unhappy with Trump. He's made them pay more for NATO yet he's moving a division from Germany to Poland.   He added or will add tariffs on German cars.   They really want him out of office.   So naturally,  Der Spiegel would have a negative opinion about him.  I think he's handling the Germans just fine.  We'll probably have to bail out The Deutsche Bank again.  It's on it way too failure and will take down the German economy with it. Maybe the whole EU.

[LesPalenik]

That's what you would think. Most Germans don't even know or care that they are paying more for their military. They still have plenty of resources to pay for the health care and other social things. Right now, they spend about the same for their immigration as for their defense budget - 21 billion euros.

Spiegel is a relatively unbiased publication. You should hear what the others say, many other European news agencies are much harsher on Trump and USA. That's a big shame, since four years ago they all looked at USA and Trump with a respect. Now they just ridicule him.

[Robert Roaldi]

the Germans are unhappy with Trump. He's made them pay more for NATO yet he's moving a division from Germany to Poland.   He added or will add tariffs on German cars.   They really want him out of office.   So naturally,  Der Spiegel would have a negative opinion about him.  I think he's handling the Germans just fine.  We'll probably have to bail out The Deutsche Bank again.  It's on it way too failure and will take down the German economy with it. Maybe the whole EU.

Why add tariffs to German cars? What would be the purpose of that? What domestic manufacturers would benefit? There are no direct competitors besides Lexus and Infiniti and they're hardly domestic.

You seem to have this bizarre idea that the US does not benefit from freer trade. It's an odd position for an avowed "free marketer" to take.

[Craig Lamson]

Why add tariffs to German cars? What would be the purpose of that? What domestic manufacturers would benefit? There are no direct competitors besides Lexus and Infiniti and they're hardly domestic.

You seem to have this bizarre idea that the US does not benefit from freer trade. It's an odd position for an avowed "free marketer" to take.

Not sure if its still true but last numbers I remember were US 2.5 % tarrif on cars imported from the EU.  EU 10% tarrif on cars imported from the US.  Free trade....

Ant then there is always the lobster thing.

[Peter McLennan]

]https://www.npr.org/2016/07/20/trump-speechwriter-accepts-responsibility-for-using-michelle-obamas-words[/url]

* A word of caution, that is likely unnecessary, but offered nonetheless. With online forums generally, you may find yourself on a merry-go-round of argument that appears to be propelled by immaturity and insecurity in which the spinning only ends when smug self-congratulatory vainglory is achieved.

Frequently accompanied by the all-caps epithet “FAIL!”  and “Wanna try again?”
Unfortunately, for some it’s all about winning, not informed discussion.

.

[Alan Klein]

Why add tariffs to German cars? What would be the purpose of that? What domestic manufacturers would benefit? There are no direct competitors besides Lexus and Infiniti and they're hardly domestic.

You seem to have this bizarre idea that the US does not benefit from freer trade. It's an odd position for an avowed "free marketer" to take.

I'm all for free trade if tariffs are equalized or better still removed on all sides. As long as America gets punished with higher tariffs on its goods, then Trump or Biden should use tariffs to encourage negotiations to correct the imbalances. Free trade means a fair and level playing field. 

[Craig Lamson]

Frequently accompanied by the all-caps epithet “FAIL!”  and “Wanna try again?”
Unfortunately, for some it’s all about winning, not informed discussion.

.

If you were interested in informed discussion it would be a different situation.  But you're not.  As witnessed by your attempt to WIN by posting the excerpts from the Politifact article even though they proved your original point incorrect. Nothing like a little hypocrisy in the morning ..

[Alan Klein]

That's what you would think. Most Germans don't even know or care that they are paying more for their military. They still have plenty of resources to pay for the health care and other social things. Right now, they spend about the same for their immigration as for their defense budget - 21 billion euros.

Spiegel is a relatively unbiased publication. You should hear what the others say, many other European news agencies are much harsher on Trump and USA. That's a big shame, since four years ago they all looked at USA and Trump with a respect. Now they just ridicule him.

Trump puts winning before being liked.  Most former presidents were saps who gave away the farm because foreigners were nice to them while they picked our pickets.  Trump only cares about the bottom line.  Of course, foreigners or companies, or anyone else on the other side doesn't like it. 

Frankly, I think China might actually want to deal with him then Biden.  They've made deals with Trump already and know how he operates.  He's transactional.  He doesn't care what countries do internally unlike a lot of politicians.  As long as you treat America fair and he can make a fair deal, he's happy to leave you alone.  Biden will play the usual American "we know what's best for you" attitude that gets us into foreign adventures all the time, putting our noses in where they don't belong.  I think a lot of the pressure Trump is putting on China militarily in the So. China Sea and economically is for the election.  It'll die down afterwards as he and China get back to the regular business of deal making. 

[faberryman]

I think a lot of the pressure Trump is putting on China militarily in the So. China Sea and economically is for the election.

Driving your boats around in circles in the South China Sea is a lot of pressure? What does Trump hope to accomplish by doing so? As far as I can tell, the US boats putt-putt by the islands occupied by China and everyone waves at one another. It beats a shooting war but it seems kind of pointless. Here is the latest:

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3098139/south-china-sea-asean-states-set-course-beijings-red-line

[Peter McLennan]

If you were interested in informed discussion it would be a different situation.  But you're not.  As witnessed by your attempt to WIN by posting the excerpts from the Politifact article even though they proved your original point incorrect. Nothing like a little hypocrisy in the morning ..

The Defense rests.

[Peter McLennan]

Trump puts winning before being liked.

All evidence points to precisely the opposite being the truth.

[Robert Roaldi]

I'm all for free trade if tariffs are equalized or better still removed on all sides. As long as America gets punished with higher tariffs on its goods, then Trump or Biden should use tariffs to encourage negotiations to correct the imbalances. Free trade means a fair and level playing field.

Unless you take into account trade balances in ALL sectors, pointing out tariff differences in individual industries doesn't demonstrate anything much.

In the automobile example, FIAT-Chrysler, Ford and GM have plants in Europe. BMW has at least one plant in the US, as do many others. Trying to explain the EU's 10% tariffs on US automobiles, if that's what it is, on the basis that it's unfair to the US is a bit previous. Obviously all those players were involved in the trade negotiations, for all we know there may be perfectly good reasons for the tariffs to be what they are. From my brief stint working in economic forecasting a lifetime ago, one sentence analyses of trade are ok in a bar discussion when you have 6 beers in you, that is, it's entertainment but that's about all.

[Craig Lamson]

The Defense rests.

You have no defense.

[faberryman]

You have no defense.

I am losing track guys. Is the argument that Melania did not plagiarize because her speech was not a word for word copy of Michelle's? Or simply that Peter said it was word for word and it's not?

[jeremyrh]

I am losing track guys. Is the argument that Melania did not plagiarize because her speech was not a word for word copy of Michelle's? Or simply that Peter said it was word for word and it's not?

I think it started when I said it was word for word plagiarism.  Apparently I FAILed because some words were in fact different.

[Robert Roaldi]

I am losing track guys. Is the argument that Melania did not plagiarize because her speech was not a word for word copy of Michelle's? Or simply that Peter said it was word for word and it's not?

It's a proxy fight, the details don't matter. Besides, I doubt anyone else remembers either.

For my part, having spouses and children at these functions is revolting. Look at ME, my white picket fence is better than yours! Orchestrated bullshit.

[faberryman]

I think it started when I said it was word for word plagiarism.  Apparently I FAILed because some words were in fact different.

Oh, so it was important. Seems like Craig really knocked this one out of the park.

[Craig Lamson]

I am losing track guys. Is the argument that Melania did not plagiarize because her speech was not a word for word copy of Michelle's? Or simply that Peter said it was word for word and it's not?

As I posted upthread in reply to James Clark


"I only take offense with the claim word for word.  It’s a non story as you have pointed out.  I find all of the charges of plagiarism a bit petty if you ask me."