US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)

Biden

14 (66.7%)

Trump

7 (33.3%)

Total Members Voted: 21

Voting closed: November 02, 2020, 06:25:59 pm

[William Walker]

Obama isn't running.  No one really believes Biden can do a better job.  That's the issue.

Some people do: https://thehill.com/policy/finance/518094-biden-victory-democratic-sweep-would-bring-biggest-boost-to-economy-analysis

Joe, in future you should just say, "I don't think..."

"A victory for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, a Democratic takeover of the Senate and defense of the party's House majority in the November elections would be the best outcome for the U.S. economy, according to an analysis released Wednesday by Moody’s Analytics." - The Hill.

New York (CNN Business)
"President Donald Trump is once again warning voters that Democrats would 'shut our economy and jobs down' if they win in November.

Goldman Sachs is telling its clients the exact opposite."
No doubt you will bad-mouth Moodys, Goldman Sachs and The Hill. (CNN I won't even mention!)

[Alan Klein]

Some people do: https://thehill.com/policy/finance/518094-biden-victory-democratic-sweep-would-bring-biggest-boost-to-economy-analysis

Joe, in future you should just say, "I don't think..."

"A victory for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, a Democratic takeover of the Senate and defense of the party's House majority in the November elections would be the best outcome for the U.S. economy, according to an analysis released Wednesday by Moody’s Analytics." - The Hill.

New York (CNN Business)
"President Donald Trump is once again warning voters that Democrats would 'shut our economy and jobs down' if they win in November.

Goldman Sachs is telling its clients the exact opposite."
No doubt you will bad-mouth Moodys, Goldman Sachs and The Hill. (CNN I won't even mention!)

Biden intends to keep printing, even more than Trump.  Most of that money is going to the rich and well connected who have investments in the stock market and other assets.  Regular people will not benefit from this.  So naturally, the investment community thinks it's a great idea.  Regulations will increase costing business profits and loss of jobs.  Of course, in the end, it will all turn to dust as the dollar collapses in value.  Then, companies will go broke as business declines, taxes will have to be raised for everyone, and the whole economy will suffer. 

[Alan Klein]

Then Republicans will win in 2024 to restore the economy.

[TechTalk]

A number of current Republican candidates in close races are doing their best to ignore questions about Trump right now as both his behavior and chances for re-election continue to slide off the rails dragging their election chances with him. The size of what increasing looks like a big year for Democrats may be some indicator of how long it will take the Republican party to scrub away the lingering Trump odor in future elections.

[John Camp]

Seems to me what really is, is a problem is a supreme court that does not represent the feelings of the people that make the nation.
If it is now 6-3 conservative and if the population is 3-6 liberal than there is a problem.
It can lead to unrest and make legislation coming to a standstill. <snip>

I wouldn't swear to this, but I think the country is actually center-right, not mostly liberal. If Trump loses, it will be because he lost part of the normally Republican vote. (He is such a a grifter, and so obviously so, it's hard to believe that he's even competitive.) If the Republicans comes back in 2024 with a modestly conservative candidate of whichever gender, maybe like Bush 1, and a VP candidate, more strongly to the right, I think they'd win. Aside from the screamers on the left and right, I think what the country wants now is a reformed, more efficient government, and peace and quiet.

[John Camp]

The Economist model (link on the first post in this thread) gives Biden (as of today) a 92% chance of winning the electoral college. American polls call it much closer. I wonder why the split? The Economist is a notably even-handed magazine, not given to silliness, but it's also not American. Could distance and the generally anti-Trump attitude of the Brits have something to do with it? Wishful thinking somehow infecting their model? Or is the problem on the American side, bad polling showing its face. 538 rates polls, and some of the get D- (really.) It'd be nice to know where the reality lies.

[faberryman]

Speaking of peace and quiet, my dogs woke me up about 2:00 am last night barking like there was no tomorrow. I got up and turned on all the lights, inside and out. I have a lot of those wireless internet light bulbs around the house so I just have to say "lights on" and the place lights up like Chevy Chase's house in Christmas Vacation. I thought maybe the dickhead Trump supporter was back to deface the new Biden signs. I was prepared for him this time. I was wearing my camo pajamas and had my son's Star Trek phaser just in case. You laugh. It makes some pretty realistic phaser sounds. It could be a real problem if the dickhead Trump supporter was wearing a red shirt. Those are the guys who always got vaporized. Kirk couldn't even remember their names when he beamed back up with half a contingent. And Bones never could explain where he got all the wallets. Fascinating. Anyway, it was a little anti-climatic. It turns out it was probably a raccoon in the garage. A Klingon raccoon.

[William Walker]

Then Republicans will win in 2024 to restore the economy.

Let me see if I understand you correctly, are you saying:
 
a) Trump is going to lose this election? (Don't tell Joe Kitchen!) ...or
b) Trump is really going to stuff the economy up even more than he already has when he wins...?

[TechTalk]

The Economist model (link on the first post in this thread) gives Biden (as of today) a 92% chance of winning the electoral college. American polls call it much closer. I wonder why the split? The Economist is a notably even-handed magazine, not given to silliness, but it's also not American. Could distance and the generally anti-Trump attitude of the Brits have something to do with it? Wishful thinking somehow infecting their model? Or is the problem on the American side, bad polling showing its face. 538 rates polls, and some of the get D- (really.) It'd be nice to know where the reality lies.

538 currently has Biden at an 87% chance of winning the electoral college, so not that far from The Economist forecast. 538's past track record is very good. In 2016 they gave Trump a better chance than other poll aggregators at about 30%, which is actually a pretty decent chance of winning. If the weather forecast was a 30% chance of rain, I might put an umbrella in the car.

If you look at the 538 forecast page and scroll down to "The winding path to victory" which shows the closest races on either side of a 270 electoral vote center line, you can see why Trump is currently looking to be in terrible shape to win re-election. Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, Trump needs to win all of them; and they are all states in which Biden is currently leading in the poll averages. Of those, Biden only needs to win one, Pennsylvania or perhaps Florida and the deal is done. Florida is really crucial for Trump. If he loses Florida, his path to victory will be extremely difficult as he would need to perform a repeat of 2016 with Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, which currently looks very unlikely.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

The 538 national polling average is here. Biden is currently in double digits at a +10.5% margin.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

[Alan Klein]

Let me see if I understand you correctly: are you saying:
 
a) Trump is going to lose this election? (Don't tell Joe Kitchen!) ...or
b) Trump is really going to stuff the economy up even more than he already has when he wins...?

Trump wants to spend a lot now because he;s running for re-election.  If he wins, hopefully he'll cut back before the bank is broken.  He will not increase taxes which will be good for business and the economy.  Since he can't run for president again, he'll hopefully stick to better economic decisions.  The economy may fail anyway helping Democrats in 2022 and 2024.

If Biden wins, he wants to continue printing big time and raise taxes.  Increase regulation. Business will fall and the dollar will devalue.  Jobs will be lost setting up Republicans for wins in 2022 and 2024.

[Manoli]

The Economist model (link on the first post in this thread) gives Biden (as of today) a 92% chance of winning the electoral college. American polls call it much closer.

If you scroll down the page, you’ll see that the ‘modelled popular vote’ gives Biden a 55 v 45 lead over Trump, in line with the majority of US polls providing their data stream.

They’ve also cautioned that The race for the WH is a little closer than it looks.

[Alan Klein]

538 currently has Biden at an 87% chance of winning the electoral college, so not that far from The Economist forecast. 538's past track record is very good. In 2016 they gave Trump a better chance than other poll aggregators at about 30%, which is actually a pretty decent chance of winning. If the weather forecast was a 30% chance of rain, I might put an umbrella in the car.

If you look at the 538 forecast page and scroll down to "The winding path to victory" which shows the closest races on either side of a 270 electoral vote center line, you can see why Trump is currently looking to be in terrible shape to win re-election. Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, Trump needs to win all of them; and they are all states in which Biden is currently leading in the poll averages. Of those, Biden only needs to win one, Pennsylvania or perhaps Florida and the deal is done. Florida is really crucial for Trump. If he loses Florida, his path to victory will be extremely difficult as he would need to perform a repeat of 2016 with Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, which currently looks very unlikely.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

The 538 national polling average is here. Biden is currently in double digits at a +10.5% margin.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Hillary redux.

[James Clark]

Then Republicans will win in 2024 to restore the economy.

Dude.  You have to go back FOURTY ONE YEARS to find the last time that happened.  For many middle-aged voters, the Republicans have NEVER been the more fiscally responsible party.  Like ever.  In their whole lives. That's humiliating.

[TechTalk]

For the past century, every time the economy runs off the rails, Americans elect Democrats to put it back on track. Of course, over in the alternate reality universe where modern economics can be learned from a comic book containing grossly over simplified theories and alternative facts, but with colorful pictures, the world looks very different.

[faberryman]

For the past century, every time the economy runs off the rails, Americans elect Democrats to put it back on track. Of course, over in the alternate reality universe where modern economics can be learned from a comic book containing grossly over simplified theories and alternative facts, but with colorful pictures, the world looks very different.

Speaking of comic books, my dad would never let me have comic books. So I spent a lot of time up at the drug store reading them. One of my friend's dad would let him have comic books, and he had scads of them. I really liked going over to his house to spend the night. I would sleep in the top bunk and read comic books until like three in the morning. I always wanted some of those x-ray glasses - for obvious reasons. A few years ago, I grew up. I guess the Republicans didn't, and that's why they use comic books to explain their economic theory. Everybody knows that Richie Rich isn't real. He's just a figment of Milton Friedman's imagination.

What we really need is about a ten trillion dollar stimulus package. Let's make that chicken in every pot and a new car in every garage story come true. I'm not worried. The deleterious effects won't occur until I'm long gone. I think my son's old enough that he won't feel them either. My grandchildren will probably be more worried about how to abandon the Earth because of global warming than about inflation. So, all in all, it could work out. I mean at least it is worth a shot. If I couldn't get a new car, I would be satisfied with some new tires. I don't drive that much anyway. And I would even be willing to forego the chicken. I'm never eating another piece of chicken. I told you about that poultry slaughtering machine that turns the carcass inside out, didn't I?

[TechTalk]

The problem with comparing 2016 to 2020 is that Biden isn't Hillary and Trump is now a known commodity. His bizarre behavior and antics have exhausted and turned off too many voters, especially women voters across the party i.d. and ideology spectrum, and he has become a re-election problem for down ballot Republican candidates.

There are a lot of people that would like some calm relief from the constant drama of Trump's reality TV presidency. He won the Celebrity Apprentice election in 2016, now it looks like he could be the one that's fired.

[Alan Klein]

Speaking of comic books, my dad would never let me have comic books. So I spent a lot of time up at the drug store reading them. One of my friend's dad would let him have comic books, and he had scads of them. I really liked going over to his house to spend the night. I would sleep in the top bunk and read comic books until like three in the morning. I always wanted some of those x-ray glasses - for obvious reasons. A few years ago, I grew up. I guess the Republicans didn't, and that's why they use comic books to explain their economic theory. Everybody knows that Richie Rich isn't real. He's just a figment of Milton Friedman's mind.

What we really need is about a ten trillion dollar stimulus package. Let's make that chicken in every pot and a new car in every garage story come true. I'm not worried. The deleterious effects won't occur until I'm long gone. I think my son's old enough that he won't feel them either. My grandchildren will probably be more worried about how to abandon the Earth because of global warming than about inflation. So, all in all, it could work out. I mean at least it is worth a shot.

Frank, I'm sure you remember stagflation from the 1970's/early 80's.  A $100 in 1970 was worth $45 by 1982 in purchasing power due to inflation.  So if you had $100,000 in a retirement account in 1970, it would only buy you $45,000 in 1982.  Of course, back then you could get double digit or high single digit interest rates on savings to make up a large part of that loss.  But today, with interest rates near zero,  we're screwed.  Now,we've already printed trillions with trillions more to follow.  If you think you're going to escape inflation and devaluation, you're kidding yourself.  I've bought some GLD as a hedge.

[Alan Klein]

The problem with comparing 2016 to 2020 is that Biden isn't Hillary and Trump is now a known commodity. His bizarre behavior and antics have exhausted and turned off too many voters, especially women voters across the party i.d. and ideology spectrum, and he has become a re-election problem for down ballot Republican candidates.

There are a lot of people that would like some calm relief from the constant drama of Trump's reality TV presidency. He won the Celebrity Apprentice election in 2016, now it looks like he could be the one that's fired.

You may be right.  But Biden isn't equiped to be president.  People will have to decide.

[TechTalk]

A photo and political tip... It's useful to clean your lens occasionally to insure that your view isn't distorted by the smears.

[John Camp]

You may be right.  But Biden isn't equiped to be president.  People will have to decide.

I get a little tired of hearing you say this, especially since Biden kicked Trump's ass in the debate, but all righty, maybe you have some special medical insight that ignores the fact that Biden is a stutterer (and that stuttering has no effect on the intellect) and goes straight to the non-fake fact that he really is a bit dim. Ronald Reagan was demonstrably senile and yet remains a Republican star, because he was surrounded by at least marginally competent administrators. The clowns, fools, grifters, thieves, sexual criminals and family members who surround Trump couldn't administrate a Band-Aid application. If Biden is a dimwit surrounded by able people, we'll be a hell of a lot better off than with any Trump.