Covid 19 Updates Part 2

[Robert Roaldi]

In the past 24 hours, the USA has stopped a 3M shipment of masks to France and one to Canada. I saw a quote (sorry don't know where now, couldn't find it again) that Trump said that in this war there are no allies. I hope that last statement was a mis-reporting because there are many Canadian medical personnel crossing the border to lend a hand.

Is there an extreme shortage of those masks? Is there some concern that 3M cannot meet all of its orders?

I have a problem with globalization wrt strategic products. For example, I thought Canada should bite the bullet and build refineries in Alberta and not ship crude to the gulf coast even if it was inefficient (the question is always inefficient for who?) and just eat the higher cost because it was worth paying. I hope that Ontario manufacturers can re-gear quickly and start making our own equipment if we can't get it elsewhere. Presumably, they have already been working on the problem.

Worldwide markets and just-in-time inventory works just fine until something gums up the works. At that point, it is good to have back-up plans.

[Alan Klein]

Otherwise, how will Alan know which set of prejudices to apply.

My full name, location and picture is out there.  Some people are cowards and hide because they're ashamed of their comments. 

[Alan Klein]

On that note I should probably remind everyone I'm an immigrant.

Welcome to America.

[Robert Roaldi]

My full name, location and picture is out there.  Some people are cowards and hide because they're ashamed of their comments.

Maybe some people have good reason to remain anonymous. There's no a priori reason I should know who you are or where you live.

[JoeKitchen]

I dont know about you guys, but trust in all of these medical experts is really starting to decrease with me.  There are just too many different results for it to make any sense. 

People are reviewing the models and it is apparent no one has any clue to what is going to happen regardless of what we do.  Many experts are even doubting their own models and Dr. Fauci said in an recent interview that you cant trust models anyway.  The ranges of possibilities are so large and significant between models, even between ones using the same inputs. 

On top of that, no one is talking about what the trade off should between damage due to the virus and economic damage.  Nor is anyone talking about what will happen past August. 

By Easter people are going to start loosing it if we cant get concrete answers. 

Even with total lock down or a mild version, no one seems to be able to figure out the difference in death count.  Like if a partial lock down, like in Germany, will result in 2.5M vs. 150K for a total lockdown, I can see the argument for the lockdown.  But what if it is 200K vs. 150K; I think most would accept the 50K died to avoid a total economic collapse. 


I'm doing business stuff this week and next, but after Easter I am scheduling projects.  I already have a couple clients asking about it. 

[JoeKitchen]

Maybe some people have good reason to remain anonymous. There's no a priori reason I should know who you are or where you live.

It use to be in the forum rules (not sure if it still is) that you need to use your real name. 

[armand]

Biden mentioned he's thinking about Gov Whitmer for his VP.  To believe that she came out threatening doctors who prescribe the use of this drug immediately after Trump's comment is lacking credulity. She has subsequently reversed herself eliminating the threat after taking a lot of heat for her orders.

You still don't get it, do you. I don't think you even read what I said, I'm not even going to bother with you.

I can prescribe that drug to whoever I want in the hospital, no restrictions from the governor. There are restrictions from the hospital because we don't have that many doses so I need an infectious disease consult if I want to prescribe it.

[Alan Klein]

Are those leadership words. I hope we did the right thing. It would be great if this virus just magically goes away. Is that what would inspire you to go the extra mile and self isolate.

Charge!!! Let's get behind our leader...he thinks this virus will be gone by Easter.

I didn't stop isolating at home with my wife because he said it would be great if this would be gone by Easter.  Most people understood what he meant.  It's like saying I hope God would help us find our way through this darkness.  No one stopped working because a preacher said it. But you deliberately ignored the asperational aspect of it for political reasons like CNN and MSNBC. 

For reference, this is from a speech President Franklin D. Roosevelt gave before Congress after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor kicking off WWII for America. It's not contradictory to exclaim grave issues while trying to provide support and hope in dark times.  That's what presidents and other leaders are supposed to do.  Rather than attacking them, people should be thankful for using their authority to express faith and support encouragement.  Doing less is just petty politics and unworthy of true patriots. 

"...Hostilities exist. There is no blinking at the fact that our people, our territory, and our interests are in grave danger.


With confidence in our armed forces with the unbounding determination of our people we will gain the inevitable triumph so help us God...."

[faberryman]

I didn't stop isolating at home with my wife because he said it would be great if this would be gone by Easter

Why would you stop isolating? It's not Easter yet. You've got ten more days to go.

[Alan Klein]

Alan, I've been going back through the pages I missed since last night, and I understand your concern about inflation and economic damage. You have yet to notice, apparently, that because of the President's courageous actions, there will apparently be a lot fewer people on Social Security in the near future, which really should help hold down those costs.

I hope I'm not one of those being eliminated. 

[JoeKitchen]

In talking about the effects on the economy and job losses, Dr. Fauci said "I know it's difficult, but we're having a lot of suffering, a lot of death, this is inconvenient from an economic and personal standpoint, but we just have to do it."   

Sorry, I cant take any of this seriously anymore.  It is more then just inconvenient.  When southern Italy starts rioting, it is more then just inconvenient. 

Italy Risks Losing Grip in South With Fear of Looting, Riots

When this brought on economic stand still is starting talks about breaking up the EU, it is more then just inconvenient. 

European leaders warn coronavirus could lead to the breakup of their union

I want to see economists in addition to medical experts working on this.

Now there is talks in the USA that some business relief checks wont get out until August.  Seems like there is more issues with paper checks that direct deposit, but many poor people dont have bank accounts and rely on paper checks.  Some entire neighborhoods in North Philly dont have a majority of house holds without a bank account. 

Some in U.S. may not get stimulus checks until August

You really think people are just to sit by and watch their lives get destroyed because the government forced a shut using models that not even the experts can agree on without any money coming.  They will go back to work and open up their stores, and thumb their nose at city hall.

[Alan Klein]

Maybe some people have good reason to remain anonymous. There's no a priori reason I should know who you are or where you live.

When you criticize a country, people should know if you're a citizen or not.  It says something about your comment.  It also defines where you're coming from.  If you're Canadian and say Trump was nuts with Nafta, it has a different meaning and has a different reason if you're Canadian or American.  People look at American policy decisions differently if your a citizen of America or not.  It might be good for us but not for you.

It also helps other answers photo questions asked.  Someone complains about the availability of film.  Knowing he lives in America, or ENgland, helps define his point.  Someone ask where they can find a pro lab.  Again, knowing where they live answers an important question.  You don;t to include your street address or GPS coordinates.  Just a little info.  It goes a long way. 

[Alan Klein]

You still don't get it, do you. I don't think you even read what I said, I'm not even going to bother with you.

I can prescribe that drug to whoever I want in the hospital, no restrictions from the governor. There are restrictions from the hospital because we don't have that many doses so I need an infectious disease consult if I want to prescribe it.

You don't get it either. The point is she came out against it because Trump was for it.  Nothing else mattered.  The reason was an excuse.  The anti-Trumpers reject anything and everything Trump says.  It's a knee jerk reaction.  Even if what he says makes sense, they're blinded by hatred and will find a reason to reject it.

[faberryman]

In talking about the effects on the economy and job losses, Dr. Fauci said "I know it's difficult, but we're having a lot of suffering, a lot of death, this is inconvenient from an economic and personal standpoint, but we just have to do it."   

Sorry, I cant take any of this seriously anymore.  It is more then just inconvenient.  When southern Italy starts rioting, it is more then just inconvenient.

The problem is that you are taking Dr. Fauci literally. Everyone knows he means devastating.

[Alan Klein]

Why would you stop isolating? It's not Easter yet. You've got ten more days to go.

Your side complained that his statement would get people to stop isolating and stop protecting themselves. Only people who hate Trump take what he said incorrectly.  You do that all the time because you hate the guy.  It blinds you to all reality.  Independents who don;t have an ax to grind listen to what he says in a human manner.  They don;t cherry pick and ascribe weird meaning to what he says.  Journalists who are in the business of listening to words know what he means. But they're also prejudiced against him and report nonsense. 

[Alan Goldhammer]

I dont know about you guys, but trust in all of these medical experts is really starting to decrease with me.  There are just too many different results for it to make any sense. 

People are reviewing the models and it is apparent no one has any clue to what is going to happen regardless of what we do.  Many experts are even doubting their own models and Dr. Fauci said in an recent interview that you cant trust models anyway.  The ranges of possibilities are so large and significant between models, even between ones using the same inputs. 

Until one of the talking heads on the White House task force says that we will begin a massive testing of everyone for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies you can disregard what comes out everyone's mouth.  The blunt fact is that there are lots of people cooped up in their homes who had mild viral infections and didn't know it.  Most of the studies I've read (I spend five hours every AM reading pre-prints of papers across a number of areas) assume at minimum 10 people are infected for every case reported.  Blood tests have been created and how many do you think have received FDA emergency use approval?  Wait for it.........................................................................ONE!!!!  This such a colossal f*ck up on top of the botched genetic test that lost us a month.  Nobel Laureate economist Paul Romer says we should be testing every American at two week intervals, that's 14M tests a day.  Maybe we don't need that many from a statistical point of view but the quicker we find people who have been infected and are no longer symptomatic, GET THEM BACK TO WORK.  This is not political in any way shape or form, it's just epidemiology 101 - find out who is sick and who has recovered!!!

The only reason for the current lock down is to keep hospitals from getting over burdened and not able to deal with anything other than SARS-CoV-2 patients.

Policy makers have no imagination.

[Alan Klein]

In talking about the effects on the economy and job losses, Dr. Fauci said "I know it's difficult, but we're having a lot of suffering, a lot of death, this is inconvenient from an economic and personal standpoint, but we just have to do it."   

Sorry, I cant take any of this seriously anymore.  It is more then just inconvenient.  When southern Italy starts rioting, it is more then just inconvenient. 

Italy Risks Losing Grip in South With Fear of Looting, Riots

When this brought on economic stand still is starting talks about breaking up the EU, it is more then just inconvenient. 

European leaders warn coronavirus could lead to the breakup of their union

I want to see economists in addition to medical experts working on this.

Now there is talks in the USA that some business relief checks wont get out until August.  Seems like there is more issues with paper checks that direct deposit, but many poor people dont have bank accounts and rely on paper checks.  Some entire neighborhoods in North Philly dont have a majority of house holds with a bank account. 

Some in U.S. may not get stimulus checks until August

You really think people are just to sit by and watch their lives get destroyed because the government forced a shut using models that not even the experts can agree on without any money coming.  They will go back to work and open up their stores, and thumb their nose at city hall.

Only Italians care about Italy. 

I've been bringing this point up in these forums for years.  Creating a political entity called the EU won't work.  When things get tough, people only care about their own country.  It's called patriotism.  Sure, while things are flush, and everyone's making money, it's easy to be charitable to other people's.  But when you've got family dying and you can't afford a funeral, things can get out of hand.  We went through this with the Greece crisis.  But tha wa small potatoes compared to the economic problem spanning the globe.  Will Germany bail out all these countries again?  Or will they follow GB down the Brexit road?  I really feel bad for everyone.  This is a disaster for all. 

[Alan Klein]

The problem is that you are taking Dr. Fauci literally. Everyone knows he means devastating.

He doesn't want to upset Trump.

[JoeKitchen]

Until one of the talking heads on the White House task force says that we will begin a massive testing of everyone for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies you can disregard what comes out everyone's mouth.  The blunt fact is that there are lots of people cooped up in their homes who had mild viral infections and didn't know it.  Most of the studies I've read (I spend five hours every AM reading pre-prints of papers across a number of areas) assume at minimum 10 people are infected for every case reported.  Blood tests have been created and how many do you think have received FDA emergency use approval?  Wait for it.........................................................................ONE!!!!  This such a colossal f*ck up on top of the botched genetic test that lost us a month.  Nobel Laureate economist Paul Romer says we should be testing every American at two week intervals, that's 14M tests a day.  Maybe we don't need that many from a statistical point of view but the quicker we find people who have been infected and are no longer symptomatic, GET THEM BACK TO WORK.  This is not political in any way shape or form, it's just epidemiology 101 - find out who is sick and who has recovered!!!

The only reason for the current lock down is to keep hospitals from getting over burdened and not able to deal with anything other than SARS-CoV-2 patients.

Policy makers have no imagination.

Cant say I disagree with any of this.  Why in God's name is the FDA still dragging their knuckles on this.  They need to be completely dismantled and rebuilt after this.  Their bureaucratic bull shit has screwed this country over up and down. 

[Alan Klein]

Until one of the talking heads on the White House task force says that we will begin a massive testing of everyone for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies you can disregard what comes out everyone's mouth.  The blunt fact is that there are lots of people cooped up in their homes who had mild viral infections and didn't know it.  Most of the studies I've read (I spend five hours every AM reading pre-prints of papers across a number of areas) assume at minimum 10 people are infected for every case reported.  Blood tests have been created and how many do you think have received FDA emergency use approval?  Wait for it.........................................................................ONE!!!!  This such a colossal f*ck up on top of the botched genetic test that lost us a month.  Nobel Laureate economist Paul Romer says we should be testing every American at two week intervals, that's 14M tests a day.  Maybe we don't need that many from a statistical point of view but the quicker we find people who have been infected and are no longer symptomatic, GET THEM BACK TO WORK.  This is not political in any way shape or form, it's just epidemiology 101 - find out who is sick and who has recovered!!!

The only reason for the current lock down is to keep hospitals from getting over burdened and not able to deal with anything other than SARS-CoV-2 patients.

Policy makers have no imagination.

If the actual cases are ten times those reported like you say, then the death rate is ten times less deadly.  That's good news. 

I'm still not clear how extra testing will help.  There's no way we can test the whole public.  Even in countries like So Korea, they only tested 350,000 by Mar 25th out of 50 million people.  That's only 1 out of 145 people or 7/10ths of 1%.  0.0069. You can't really find the cases with that kind of testing.  And what happens after you test if someone gets it then?  How often are you going to test?  I could see some testing to determine which geographic areas are the worse, and have been exposed,  and extrapolate the quantity in an area using sampling.  That would make sense.  Then you could assign resources more effectively.