Covid 19 Updates Part 2

[JoeKitchen]

Why do you feel the food supply will be shut down. I haven't seen any indications of any food supply problems. I've seen idiots buying toilet paper by the truck loads...that's not a supply problem...that's a stupidity problem.

Well I certainly agree with the stupidity part of your assessment, and as of now there are no food supply issues here. 

However, there was a run, borderline riot, on a food drive yesterday near me.  So, even though the supply chains are up and running, all it takes is a little more stupidity and the right spark to cause a panic. 

I have no feelings of grander that we as people have evolved past our prior savage versions.  We are merely wealthy and can afford not to be, yet the vail of civilization can blow off easier then we think.  Take that wealth away, and it wont be long before we succumb to the wild. 

[chez]

Well I certainly agree with the stupidity part of your assessment, and as of now there are no food supply issues here. 

However, there was a run, borderline riot, on a food drive yesterday near me.  So, even though the supply chains are up and running, all it takes is a little more stupidity and the right spark to cause a panic. 

I have no feelings of grander that we as people have evolved past our prior savage versions.  We are merely wealthy and can afford not to be, yet the vail of civilization can blow off easier then we think.  Take that wealth away, and it wont be long before we succumb to the wild.

This is where strong leadership plays how a society deals with catastrophes. History is littered with great leadership from people at the top that saw their societies through troubled times. I know here in Canada we are getting the same message from all levels of government as well as the medical experts. I see no political maneuvering...i fact the various political parties are all in sync. We have out Prime Minister addressing the nation daily with the same message as our province premiers...same message as our health officials, same message as our mayors. No fighting...no political ones up on each other.

Leadership at the top make it or break it at trying times.

[Robert Roaldi]

This is where strong leadership plays how a society deals with catastrophes. History is littered with great leadership from people at the top that saw their societies through troubled times. I know here in Canada we are getting the same message from all levels of government as well as the medical experts. I see no political maneuvering...i fact the various political parties are all in sync. We have out Prime Minister addressing the nation daily with the same message as our province premiers...same message as our health officials, same message as our mayors. No fighting...no political ones up on each other.

Leadership at the top make it or break it at trying times.

There's a lot to be said for being treated like adults.

[JoeKitchen]

This is where strong leadership plays how a society deals with catastrophes. History is littered with great leadership from people at the top that saw their societies through troubled times. I know here in Canada we are getting the same message from all levels of government as well as the medical experts. I see no political maneuvering...i fact the various political parties are all in sync. We have out Prime Minister addressing the nation daily with the same message as our province premiers...same message as our health officials, same message as our mayors. No fighting...no political ones up on each other.

Leadership at the top make it or break it at trying times.

We will have to agree to disagree here. 

Fact is, we cant tell which countries, regardless of leadership or position, would succumb to the pressure of hunger.  France was the wealthiest country in Europe and revolted twice in the 1800s.  England meanwhile was poor throughout the middle ages, dealt with a little ice age, invasion attempts and thrived. 

But then again, one of the most counterfeited items during WWII were British food ration passes (I forget the exact term for these).  Even the Romans understood that hungry people start revolutions and gave away free food. 

As was said before, “there are only nine meals between mankind and anarchy.”  You'd be foolish not to heed this warning. 

[Robert Roaldi]

France was the wealthiest country in Europe and revolted twice in the 1800s.

I'm sure the 1% were wealthy, the rest only had pitchforks. 

[LesPalenik]

In Canada, CBC National News announced that the schools will remain closed till the first week in May (or indefinitely), the current isolation policy will extend till June, and many businesses are not able pay their rents.

Today's casualties in USA, the largest epicentre were 650 deaths and 24,000 new infections and worldwide 4,300 deaths and 72,000 new infections.
Total USA counts: 188,500 cases and 3,890 deaths. Total Global Counts: 857,000 cases and 42,000 deaths.
The most affected Western European countries (Italy, Spain, France, UK, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany) incurred in total over 30,000 deaths.
Global projection for April 10: 1.5 million cases and 100,000 deaths.

If Trump is correct in his prediction of the peak in 2 weeks, presuming the current virus growth rate, USA could see half a million cases and 10,000 deaths by April 15.
White House projects 100,000 to 240,000 deaths in the next few months. That would be much higher than the flu deaths from any year before.

[Alan Klein]

In Canada, CBC National News announced that the schools will remain closed till the first week in May (or indefinitely), the current isolation policy will extend till June, and many businesses are not able pay their rents.

Today's casualties in USA, the largest epicentre were 650 deaths and 24,000 new infections and worldwide 4,300 deaths and 72,000 new infections.
Total USA counts: 188,500 cases and 3,890 deaths. Total Global Counts: 857,000 cases and 42,000 deaths.
The most affected Western European countries (Italy, Spain, France, UK, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany) incurred in total over 30,000 deaths.
Global projection for April 10: 1.5 million cases and 100,000 deaths.

If Trump is correct in his prediction of the peak in 2 weeks, presuming the current virus growth rate, USA could see half a million cases and 10,000 deaths by April 15.
White House projects 100,000 to 240,000 deaths in the next few months. That would be much higher than the flu deaths from any year before.

Yes, it's pretty dire.  I'm in New Jersey only 40 miles from NYC.  NJ is second highest in cases and deaths after NY.  It's really scary because at my age of 75 with heart, diabetes,  and other issues, catching this thing could be a death warrant.  My wife is younger and healthier than me.  But she's refusing to go out as I am, at least for the near future.  She and I refuse to go out shopping for food.  And they're not taking orders for delivery.  Good time to lose a few overweight pounds.

[Alan Klein]

Here're 3/31/20 statistics for NJ.  77% of deaths are 65 years and older.  42% had underlying medical conditions. The last item shows about 40% of those tested as having the virus.  But it's not clear how many tests were randomly taken and not just of people suspected with the disease.  If they were random, we could see just how prevalent the disease is in the general public.


The state has also learned of an additional 69 deaths, bringing the total number of fatalities to 267.
55% Male and 45% female
1% were less than 30 years of age
12% were between 30 years and 48 years
17% were between 50 years and 64 years
30% were between 65 years and 79 years
47% were over the age of 80
42% had underlying conditions (obesity, diabetes, hypertension etc.)
Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli says 44,330 tests have now been run in the state, resulting in 17,253 positive tests, for an overall positivity rate of 38.92%
https://www.njtvonline.org/news/uncategorized/tracking-the-coronavirus-in-new-jersey/

[LesPalenik]

Yes, it's pretty dire.  I'm in New Jersey only 40 miles from NYC.  NJ is second highest in cases and deaths after NY.  It's really scary because at my age of 75 with heart, diabetes,  and other issues, catching this thing could be a death warrant.  My wife is younger and healthier than me.  But she's refusing to go out as I am, at least for the near future.  She and I refuse to go out shopping for food.  And they're not taking orders for delivery.  Good time to lose a few overweight pounds.

NJ is still far behind New York in terms of infections and deaths, although it has roughly the same population. I recall, just a week or so ago, NJ had the same number of deaths as Florida - 9. Now Florida has 87 deaths and NJ 267, about 3 times as much. Hopefully it won't get much worse.

Last week, when shopping for food in my nearby supermarket, I noticed fewer people inside, the cashiers had a protective plexiglass shield installed between them and the customers, and the store was less cluttered and much cleaner.  Actually, it seemed quite safe and people kept their distance from each other. There was no shortage of fresh fruit and vegetables.  One guy in front of me at the cash register had a flimsy face mask flopping on his face, so I kept 2 meters away from him. 

[Alan Klein]

Well NJ, and Connecticut for that matter, are part of the New York Metropolitan Area.  A lot of people who live in NJ and CT work in NYC.  So they've apparently been taking the disease home with them to NJ and CT.  If the experts are wrong, and this things does not stop and winds its way through the whole society, there could be millions of dead. 

[Paulo Bizarro]

Of course flu is different in many ways.  But the point I was making is that no one blinks about the flu even though tens of millions get infected every year and 100,000 died in a two year period.  Life went on.  No social isolation.  No shut down of the economy.  I'm not saying we shouldn't be doing what we're doing.  It does seem like it's helping a lot.  It's just that we shouldn't lose sight that viruses are with us every year.  I have a feeling that if this happens next year, we will handle it in different ways but not as extreme.  I could be wrong, but I hope and most people should hope I'm right.  The country can't stand another bout of this next year medically or economically.

Thing is, most people (?) that die from the flu have had access to medical treatment, and they are normally older people too. We can assume that they had access to treatment for pneumonia. Doctors say that they know how to treat pneumonia, have done it for decades.

The danger of c19 is that even mild cases of pneumonia, as reported by patients, cause severe pain when breathing. Contrary to the normal flu, hospitals can not treat the influx of daily patients that need ICU. In Portugal, we have around 2,000 ICUs, so the math is easy. If we hit say 50,000 cases in a few weeks, 5% of those will need ICUs, that is 2,500. Italy and Spain are forced to decide who gets access to ICU, the number of critical patients every day is so high.

[Rob C]

There's enough of them.  Let them live in the country for a few months and they should be quite tasty.

Like bats?

[Jim Pascoe]

That does not stop the Chinese government from publishing false data and jailing those who report otherwise.  And some of those in the media fail for it hook, line and sinker.  To think that China has less cases then the USA is foolish, and using the WHO, of which it is pretty clear has become a shrill for China, data means any chart you put out will be false. 

As of yesterday, many in the media were reporting China's death toll to be around 5000, the official Chinese number.  However, at least 48,000 urns have been given out in Wuhan alone since this began. 

So I take these graphs with a grain of salt when they show official Chinese figures.

Of course the population of that region is around 60 million - so we might expect around 60,000 people to die a month anyway - so possibly 48000 urns is not unexpected......

[Jim Pascoe]

Well I certainly agree with the stupidity part of your assessment, and as of now there are no food supply issues here. 

However, there was a run, borderline riot, on a food drive yesterday near me.  So, even though the supply chains are up and running, all it takes is a little more stupidity and the right spark to cause a panic. 

I have no feelings of grander that we as people have evolved past our prior savage versions.  We are merely wealthy and can afford not to be, yet the vail of civilization can blow off easier then we think.  Take that wealth away, and it wont be long before we succumb to the wild.

Joe - about two weeks ago you said the American public (at least I presume you mean the ones you know of) would not put up with travel and freedom restrictions for more than about two weeks max.  Are things breaking down around you, and do you think the latest from Trump about this going on for a long time will lead to an immediate breakdown in society?  I thought at the time you had a much lower opinion of the typical US citizen than I do - and I hope that is the case.

Jim

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Joe - about two weeks ago you said the American public (at least I presume you mean the ones you know of) would not put up with travel and freedom restrictions for more than about two weeks max.  Are things breaking down around you, and do you think the latest from Trump about this going on for a long time will lead to an immediate breakdown in society?  I thought at the time you had a much lower opinion of the typical US citizen than I do - and I hope that is the case.

Anyone remember gun fights at gas stations during the first oil shock in the '70s?

[LesPalenik]

Anyone remember gun fights at gas stations during the first oil shock in the '70s?

This time around, there is plenty of gas, and it's so cheap that it's hardly worth a fight.

[LesPalenik]

In Netherlands, the restaurants, bars, sex-clubs and the houses of ill fame are still closed, but the "Coffee-Shops" which sell marijuana were re-opened.

Just as quickly as they were closed, the coffee shops were back in business. After an emergency meeting Monday evening, under pressure from mayors concerned about a potential upsurge in street crime as the business shifted underground, the government said pot stores could reopen for carry out, as long as customers maintained a sufficient distance from one another. “It will be just like picking up a pizza,” said Hubert Bruls, mayor of Nijmegen, a city of 170,000 near the German border.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/pot-stores-are-open-again-even-as-the-netherlands-locks-down

[Rob C]

Anyone remember gun fights at gas stations during the first oil shock in the '70s?

No, I lived in Scotland at that time.

I do, however, remember the petrol coupons that were introduced for a period during the Suez Crisis of 1956. Great way of controlling your mileage, and as with today, deciding what's really an important journey away fom home.

Rob

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

If the shutdown shuts down the food supply lines, you'll get to see exactly how far, or not at all, we have come. 

Fortunately I have about 85 lb. of cheese, so I should be good for a while in case.

There should be no reason for disruption of food supply, it just takes cooperation.

[LesPalenik]

Iceland lab's testing suggests 50% of coronavirus cases have no symptoms.

DeCODE, a subsidiary of US biotech company Amgen, has so far tested about 9,000 self-selected people.
"The results of the additional tests performed by deCODE have given an indication that efforts to limit the spread of the virus have been effective so far," the government wrote last week, adding "testing in the general population will continue to elicit a much clearer picture of the actual spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Iceland."
Some of the revelations have been stark. Although fewer than 1% of the tests came back positive for the virus, the company's founder Dr. Kári Stefánsson told CNN that around 50% of those who tested positive said they were asymptomatic, confirming multiple studies that show that asymptomatic, or mildly symptomatic, people have played an important role in spreading the virus. "What it means in my mind, is that because we are screening the general population, we are catching people early in the infection before they start showing symptoms," Stefánsson said.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-intl/index.html