COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[Alan Klein]

The numbers are what they are.  One can use any measure to show the US response has been dismal.  Look at hospitalization usage in the current hard hit states.  In some regions they are at 100% capacity.  We know that there are improved treatments now and all those people will not die.  However, as was the case in New York, it puts a huge burden on the healthcare system and those who might need hospitalization for some non-COVID condition are put in peril.

One of the things I am tracking in my newsletter is the trend in infection and Case Rate Fatality (CRF).  CRF has traditionally been used by the public health community to gauge how problematic an epidemic is/was.  At present, it is an imprecise number as the total number of infections is not known with precision. I look at the numbers daily to see what the trend might be. The US CRF stands at 4.3%. I continue to believe as more accurate numbers come in this will drop by about a factor of 10 but that is still higher than any other influenza outbreak other than the Spanish Flu of 1918-19.

One can do the thought experiment based on herd immunity. In the absence of a vaccine, we will need to reach the herd immunity point which is unknowable right now. To make the math easy, assume it to be 60% of the population getting infected and recovering. That is 198 M people and we are no where close to that. If you assume my CFR estimate (0.5%) total mortality ends up at 990 K deaths, totally unacceptable which is why we need to be doing so much more.

There is no simple solution.  Like most things in life, there are tradeoffs.   If you shutdown the country and isolate, yes the rates will go down.  But the economy will be hurt more and people will suffer worse economically which effects their health as well as their pocketbook.  If you keep the economy open more, than the rate of infection goes up while the other undesirable results of a stricken economy go down. 

Frankly, this is one of those situations where regardless of how hard we try, there's not much we can do.  It's like trying to find the right exposure setting shooting a shady landscape with a bright sky.  We need a grad ND filter.  Unfortunately with the virus, the vaccine hasn't been yet invented.

Slowly or quickly, the virus seems to want to go through the population.  Even NYS Gov Cuomo said as much months ago.  Sure, we can use drugs and health efforts to cure those stricken and help those to not get it. But we're really at the mercy of nature.  No one's "solution" on either side will get us through without a lot of damage to our health, lives and wallets as much as we argue as to the "correct" method to follow. 

[Alan Klein]

Alan G.:  What has your research in the US shown? 

Brain problems linked to even mild virus infections: study
https://news.yahoo.com/brain-problems-linked-even-mild-virus-infections-study-102940044.html

[jeremyrh]

The shape of the original graphs were not the same distorting their relative meaning to the viewer projecting a different image.  Better if it just listed the totals in numbers than (edit) use fake graphs.  If you want to show volatility or amplify change, for example, just show the top 10% of a graph rather that the full 100% extent of the amounts.  It's an old graph trick.

The shapes of the graphs did not change, just the vertical stretch, and the scales were clearly labelled.  All the graphs went from zero so your "old graph trick" is irrelevant - if anyhing the original graphs  were kind to the US as they did not emphasise the massive number of cases in N America. The graphs show the evolution of the dataset; just listing the totals does not do that.  Finally - there is nothing "fake" about the graphs and it does you no credit to say otherwise... [gratuitously offensive, quasi-political comment deleted by moderator; final warning]

[jeremyrh]

There is no simple solution.  Like most things in life, there are tradeoffs.   If you shutdown the country and isolate, yes the rates will go down.  But the economy will be hurt more and people will suffer worse economically which effects their health as well as their pocketbook.  If you keep the economy open more, than the rate of infection goes up while the other undesirable results of a stricken economy go down. 

Frankly, this is one of those situations where regardless of how hard we try, there's not much we can do.  .

Wrong - compare Brazil and the US with New Zealand.  New Zealand acted quickly and effectively.  The virus there has not gone away and the country is not back to normal, but people are getting hospital treatment both for Covid and for other conditions.

[Alan Klein]

The shapes of the graphs did not change, just the vertical stretch, and the scales were clearly labelled.  All the graphs went from zero so your "old graph trick" is irrelevant - if anyhing the original graphs  were kind to the US as they did not emphasise the massive number of cases in N America. The graphs show the evolution of the dataset; just listing the totals does not do that.  Finally - there is nothing "fake" about the graphs and it does you no credit to say otherwise...[moderator: offensive comment deleted here as well]

That's insulting and political - not for this topic.  Can't you disagree without getting disagreeable? 

[Alan Klein]

Wrong - compare Brazil and the US with New Zealand.  New Zealand acted quickly and effectively.  The virus there has not gone away and the country is not back to normal, but people are getting hospital treatment both for Covid and for other conditions.

You confirmed my point.  There is a tradeoff. 

[jeremyrh]

That's insulting and political - not for this topic.  Can't you disagree without getting disagreeable?

I'd say that using the word "fake" is the political act here.

[jeremyrh]

You confirmed my point.  There is a tradeoff.

Of course there is a tradeoff, but that doesn't mean that all choices are equally bad. US and Brazil (and to an extent UK) made bad choices; NZ made a good choice.

[hogloff]

There is no simple solution.  Like most things in life, there are tradeoffs.   If you shutdown the country and isolate, yes the rates will go down.  But the economy will be hurt more and people will suffer worse economically which effects their health as well as their pocketbook.  If you keep the economy open more, than the rate of infection goes up while the other undesirable results of a stricken economy go down. 

There is no evidence that if you don't shutdown and let the virus run its course, your economy will be better off. What happens when many people that work the factories get infected. What happens if people get scared and stay home. Look at Sweden, its economy is no better than its neighbours, but their death count is way higher.

One thing we do know is if we shut down to get the virus under control and then open up with enforced measures such as wearing masks where one cannot distance themselves, we do save lives.

[Alan Goldhammer]

There is no evidence that if you don't shutdown and let the virus run its course, your economy will be better off. What happens when many people that work the factories get infected. What happens if people get scared and stay home. Look at Sweden, its economy is no better than its neighbours, but their death count is way higher.

One thing we do know is if we shut down to get the virus under control and then open up with enforced measures such as wearing masks where one cannot distance themselves, we do save lives.

I have yet to see any economist model in waves of sick outs that would affect various industries.  We know that meatpacking plants were closed for some number of weeks when all the workers got sick.  There was always going to be an economic impact and there still will be one.  Lots of people will not fly right now.  they also won't go into restaurants for a sit down meal.  Lots of office buildings are only opening up slowly and even then I expect there to be a lot of remote work to continue.  Things could have been managed much better but there is no understanding on the part of a large number of Americans what practices are needed.  The virus will continue to circulate as it has no mind of its own.

One economist who runs a reputable newsletter noted that even if we return to 90% of pre-pandemic economic activity that will still be a disaster.  I agree with this.  Older people such as myself are just not spending any money right now; there is no safe place to spend it (vacation, dining out, movies, theater, etc.).  Performing arts in New York and DC are shut down for the remainder of the year and this affects restaurants and other hospitality sectors.

[Alan Goldhammer]

Alan G.:  What has your research in the US shown? 

Brain problems linked to even mild virus infections: study
https://news.yahoo.com/brain-problems-linked-even-mild-virus-infections-study-102940044.html

There are a number of foreign reports of this as well.  It appears to be a rare side effect of viral infection.  It should be noted that one can get weird side effects from lots of different viruses; COVID-19 is not unusual in this regard.

[faberryman]

There is no simple solution.  Like most things in life, there are tradeoffs.   If you shutdown the country and isolate, yes the rates will go down.  But the economy will be hurt more and people will suffer worse economically which effects their health as well as their pocketbook.  If you keep the economy open more, than the rate of infection goes up while the other undesirable results of a stricken economy go down.

Classic examples of the logical fallacies of false dilemma and black and white thinking. Not only that but we beat this horse to death months ago. Let's move on.

[Alan Klein]

Why not let individuals decide what to do?  That way the elderly like me can stay more isolated until this thing passes.  Meanwhile, younger people who want to take the chance, can get back to work to alleviate the damage to the economy and make money to feed their families.  People aren't stupid.  The elderly know they're more at risk and are protecting themselves.  The younger realize there is some risk but may feel supporting their families is worth the risk.  Why should we let some bureaucrat in a state capitol or the president decide what's right for everyone?  They know nothing about my needs or yours, nor do they really care.

[Paulo Bizarro]

The shape of the original graphs were not the same distorting their relative meaning to the viewer projecting a different image.  Better if it just listed the totals in numbers than (edit) use fake graphs.  If you want to show volatility or amplify change, for example, just show the top 10% of a graph rather that the full 100% extent of the amounts.  It's an old graph trick.

Plenty of graphs here, in a Portuguese newspaper. I think they are understandable:

https://expresso.pt/coronavirus/2020-07-08-Coronavirus-no-mundo-em-13-graficos-Portugal-com-o-2.-pior-registo-diario-dentro-da-UE

I have taken a couple of graphs wrt USA.

[Paulo Bizarro]

Why not let individuals decide what to do?  That way the elderly like me can stay more isolated until this thing passes.  Meanwhile, younger people who want to take the chance, can get back to work to alleviate the damage to the economy and make money to feed their families.  People aren't stupid.  The elderly know they're more at risk and are protecting themselves.  The younger realize there is some risk but may feel supporting their families is worth the risk.  Why should we let some bureaucrat in a state capitol or the president decide what's right for everyone?  They know nothing about my needs or yours, nor do they really care.

It's all very well, but the problem is when a significant number of younger people take to the streets and their jobs and do not follow the recommendations to avoid spreading the virus. Quite often, such disregard is following the example of the "leaders" like Trump, Bolsonaro, Boris , or the guy from Bielorussia (who said vodka was the cure).

I do not uderstand how in countries that were so affected people are now partying in the streets getting drunk with total disregard for public health.

[Alan Klein]

Paulo,  Why don't you include graphs as well that show unemployment rates and how many people aren't making money and able to feed their families?  Don't you think those are important facts as well? 

Plenty of graphs here, in a Portuguese newspaper. I think they are understandable:

https://expresso.pt/coronavirus/2020-07-08-Coronavirus-no-mundo-em-13-graficos-Portugal-com-o-2.-pior-registo-diario-dentro-da-UE

I have taken a couple of graphs wrt USA.

Paulo,  Why don't you include graphs as well that show unemployment rates and how many people aren't making money and able to feed their families?  Don't you think those are important facts as well? 

[Alan Klein]

It's all very well, but the problem is when a significant number of younger people take to the streets and their jobs and do not follow the recommendations to avoid spreading the virus. Quite often, such disregard is following the example of the "leaders" like Trump, Bolsonaro, Boris , or the guy from Bielorussia (who said vodka was the cure).

I do not uderstand how in countries that were so affected people are now partying in the streets getting drunk with total disregard for public health.

Let individuals decide what to do.  If you're afraid of mixing it up in public like I am, do what I do.  Stay home.

[Robert Roaldi]

Paulo,  Why don't you include graphs as well that show unemployment rates and how many people aren't making money and able to feed their families?  Don't you think those are important facts as well?  Paulo,  Why don't you include graphs as well that show unemployment rates and how many people aren't making money and able to feed their families?  Don't you think those are important facts as well?

If you want to further the discussion, why not post some of those yourself?

Maybe you can find a graph showing how much dead people contribute to the economy. Or better yet, maybe you could find a graph showing how important it is for an economy to have healthy able-bodied people in it. It could be that looking after the health of your citizens is more important to liberty and self-determination than a lot of other things we blow money on.

[faberryman]

Let individuals decide what to do.  If you're afraid of mixing it up in public like I am, do what I do.  Stay home.

I'd like to but I have to drive over and pick up my prescriptions and groceries, and there are all these "rugged individualists" running red lights and driving in the left lane, you know, doing what they want to do.

[Alan Goldhammer]

Let individuals decide what to do.  If you're afraid of mixing it up in public like I am, do what I do.  Stay home.

What about school teachers such as my daughter who is an elementary special education instructor?  Most of her students are problematic and she has some who regularly spit at people. This kids are unlikely to sit still or even wear masks.  There are a lot of teachers who are not young and might be at risk.  Stay home may not be an option.