COVID-19 updates

[LesPalenik]

Trump cannot walk on water.

apparently, he can't swim either.

[LesPalenik]

A handful of stone-throwing youngsters tried to prevent ambulances from transferring 28 elderly coronavirus patients to a residence in their town in southern Spain, police said on Wednesday, March 25.

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/coronavirus-ambulances-carrying-sick-pensioners-stoned-in-spain

[Jim Pascoe]

Do you really think that Trump or any president is going to read much less implement an unapproved plan in a playbook called, "Playbook for Early Response to High-Consequence Emerging Infectious Disease Threats and Biological Incidents"?   

By the way, did you ever entirely read your cameras instruction manual and follow all it's recommendations?

I bet Presidents listen to the 'Playbook of what to do if the Russian or Chinese attack a Carrier Group'.  Of course I don't know the details myself - but there is probably a lot more profit to be made from building an enormous military machine to protect US citizens, than in building a healthcare system with a certain amount of resilience to stop thousands dying from the occasional pandemic....

Jim

[Robert Roaldi]

Do you really think that Trump or any president is going to read much less implement an unapproved plan in a playbook called, "Playbook for Early Response to High-Consequence Emerging Infectious Disease Threats and Biological Incidents"?   

By the way, did you ever entirely read your cameras instruction manual and follow all it's recommendations?

You're fixating on Trump too much, although I thought it was gratuitous for the article to have a pic of him. I guess it's the case du jour though. But it's a more widespread issue, as you rightly point out by the question about camera manuals. The irony is that a lot of online queries that people have about their cameras can be answered by their manuals, so it's a good case in point. Maybe people don't read their manuals enough, but they should, shouldn't they?

This behaviour isn't limited to the government in office. I wrote computer software for 25 years and we were always told to document our code, even though very little budget was allocated to that. By year 15 of my career, that just made me laugh. I never saw anyone actually read any documentation. People just assumed that anything old was trash and proceeded to re-invent the wheel and repeat the same errors as the previous project. This is not 100% true, but it's a lot true.

We staff buildings with people who study past occurrences of something, then no one pays attention to their findings. It's because of arrogance, ego, laziness, incompetence, any number of things. There might be another human failing at work here. People often have a high opinion of their own work while at the same time thinking that what other people do is trivial. You can see the obvious contradiction with that point of view.

[armand]

The last few pages of this thread have been about Biden and Trump (with all the sagacity I've come to expect of those who post here on the subjects). It's supposed to be about "COVID-19 updates", as it's title ever-so-subtly implies.

Stay on track. If you want to bicker about politics in the infantile, tediously repetitive way that seems to excite you all so much, start another thread.

Jeremy

I'm afraid that ship has sailed 30 pages ago. I thought about closing the thread but if this helps the other topic in Covid to stay on track I think it's still worth it as long as it doesn't become totally irrelevant.

[Alan Klein]

You're fixating on Trump too much, although I thought it was gratuitous for the article to have a pic of him. I guess it's the case du jour though. But it's a more widespread issue, as you rightly point out by the question about camera manuals. The irony is that a lot of online queries that people have about their cameras can be answered by their manuals, so it's a good case in point. Maybe people don't read their manuals enough, but they should, shouldn't they?

This behaviour isn't limited to the government in office. I wrote computer software for 25 years and we were always told to document our code, even though very little budget was allocated to that. By year 15 of my career, that just made me laugh. I never saw anyone actually read any documentation. People just assumed that anything old was trash and proceeded to re-invent the wheel and repeat the same errors as the previous project. This is not 100% true, but it's a lot true.

We staff buildings with people who study past occurrences of something, then no one pays attention to their findings. It's because of arrogance, ego, laziness, incompetence, any number of things. There might be another human failing at work here. People often have a high opinion of their own work while at the same time thinking that what other people do is trivial. You can see the obvious contradiction with that point of view.

I actually read all 200-300 pages of the manual for my Sony RX100iv.  There were so many features, I just had to read it to know what to do.  Too laborious.  Problem is you forget it after a while if you don;t use the camera.  So I made a checklist of where all hundred settings or so should be. 

Recently I bought a Chamonix 4x5 large format film camera from China. No instructions at all.  Zip.  Nada.  So I sent email to their rep and he would respond to my questions with answers like this:  "Just move the knobs a little each way and you'll figure it out. You won't break anything." Kind of frustrating.  I went on the web and watched videos to learn stuff.  Aslo moved the knobs a lot and hoped I didn't break anything. I moaned a lot about it.  But compared to the Sony manual, well no manual, it was kind of pleasant.

What's the expression?  When all else fails, follow the instructions. On the other hand, documentation is often wrong, laborious to read, hard to find, and it becomes overwhelming.  You need a lot of patience.  The new $2 trillion dollar "rescue" legislation due to the virus and economy shutdown passed here is 800 pages long.  None of the senators read it but it was approved in a 95 to 0 vote.  It's nice to know my country is in such good hands.  They're so knowledgeable. 

[MattBurt]

How is shutting down an economy and bankrupting a nation so people can't feed their families supporting a humane society?  All actions have consequences.  Sometimes the road to hell is paved with good intentions. No one is evil, here.  The consequences of our choices will have negative ramifications whatever we do.   There are no simple answers,  There will be casualties regardless of our choices.

Programs put in place to take care of people out of work so we can flatten the curve would be how a humane society would do it.
Allowing people to go back to work, even if they want to before we can do large scale testing so we actually know who could be infecting other people is just sending people to their doom. That is the opposite of humane.

[Alan Klein]

Programs put in place to take care of people out of work so we can flatten the curve would be how a humane society would do it.
Allowing people to go back to work, even if they want to before we can do large scale testing so we actually know who could be infecting other people is just sending people to their doom. That is the opposite of humane.

There are many areas that appear to be unaffected, or mildly so.  They're talking about doing a phase "get back to work" plan.  They also could limit the type of work.  For example, crowded venues would stay closed but office work limited by numbers may be OK.  Let's wait to see the plan they come up with.  It doesn't have to be all or nothing. 

In any case, like the regular flu, I believe this thing is going to die out regardless in the Spring. 

[LesPalenik]

There are many areas that appear to be unaffected, or mildly so.  They're talking about doing a phase "get back to work" plan.  They also could limit the type of work.  For example, crowded venues would stay closed but office work limited by numbers may be OK.  Let's wait to see the plan they come up with.  It doesn't have to be all or nothing. 

In any case, like the regular flu, I believe this thing is going to die out regardless in the Spring.

Spring 2021?

[Alan Klein]

Spring 2021?

Oh God, I hope not. We'll all be dead.   

[faberryman]

In any case, like the regular flu, I believe this thing is going to die out regardless in the Spring.

The last day of Spring isn't until June 19th, which is almost three months away, so you are not exactly Nostradamus. A lot can happen in three months.

[Alan Klein]

The last day of Spring isn't until June 19th, which is almost three months away, so you are not exactly Nostradamus. A lot can happen in three months.

I meant it will die out in a month or so without a major conflagration.  NY will get under control within that period as well.  Other places in Europe and elsewhere. It's good to hope. 

[LesPalenik]

The last day of Spring isn't until June 19th, which is almost three months away, so you are not exactly Nostradamus. A lot can happen in three months.

If the infection rate stays as it is now, the infections and deaths will rise rapidly.
Even if the doubling rate slows down to 10 days, there will be 10 such time frames before mid June, which will translate to unimagineable numbers.

Doubling periods for Covid-19 deaths, growing globally from the current count of 22,000 to almost 3 millions till May 20:
Period 1 - 44K, 2 - 88K, 3- - 176K, 4 - 352K, 5-704, 6-1.4M, 7 - 2.8M (using conservative estimate of doubling every 10 days)

[MattBurt]

I meant it will die out in a month or so without a major conflagration.  NY will get under control within that period as well.  Other places in Europe and elsewhere. It's good to hope.

I know the President suggested that but there doesn't seem to be much scientific basis for the claim. I hope it's right but I'm not going to count on it until there is some backing evidence that the statement wasn't just wishful thinking.

I know this will probably generate some "lamestream media" comments but this piece illustrates the projected results of different timings pretty clearly. Before you completely discount it based on the source, consider that the actual data and model comes from epidemiologists.

[Craig Lamson]

I know the President suggested that but there doesn't seem to be much scientific basis for the claim. I hope it's right but I'm not going to count on it until there is some backing evidence that the statement wasn't just wishful thinking.

I know this will probably generate some "lamestream media" comments but this piece illustrates the projected results of different timings pretty clearly. Before you completely discount it based on the source, consider that the actual data and model comes from epidemiologists.

I tend to agree that we need to be careful about how we get back to normal.  I'm one senior citizen who is not willing to sacrfice myself on the alter of a dollar. And I'm a dedicate capitalist.   I understand the frustration of those younger and more willing to chance it.  That said it can be deadly to them as well.  It will be interesting to see how the models and predictions play out in real time and hopefully I'll be here to witness it.

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

I know the President suggested that but there doesn't seem to be much scientific basis for the claim. I hope it's right but I'm not going to count on it until there is some backing evidence that the statement wasn't just wishful thinking.

I know this will probably generate some "lamestream media" comments but this piece illustrates the projected results of different timings pretty clearly. Before you completely discount it based on the source, consider that the actual data and model comes from epidemiologists.

The biggest issue I see with the simplified model is that the ICU capacity is not included which, if it were, would dramatically increase the number of deceased people. The moment that ICU capacity has been reached (and don't forget there is a regular demand on ICU capacity, e.g. accidents, operations, heart-failure, etc.) the Death rate will skyrocket. Also, the capacity would be under pressure from ICU workers falling ill.

Also, no, not everybody who gets contaminated will die, but probably between 1% and 3% will, and it's not only older folks, although they do run a higher risk due to reduced resistance and the likelihood of having additional deceases which makes them more vulnerable. Increasing the testing capacity will allow to reduce the Deat Rate somewhat, but we're talking about millions of deaths.

So, the scenario that sane people are following is to apply Social Distancing to avoid overburdening the  ICUs and staff which, assuming people adhere to the guidelines, can then be slowly relaxed to manage the pressure on ICU capacity. This will gradually build some group immunity (early testing suggests that immunization is happening), and it will bridge the time to develop a vaccine (in a year's time) in large enough quantities that would allow relaxing Social Distancing more rapidly.

There is one simple recipe to disaster, and that is to try and speed up the economic recovery (for electorial or whatever other selfish/misguided reasons) by lifting the social distancing to fast. Brazil will be a sadly interesting case to follow.

[Jeremy Roussak]

Coronavirus: Is it too much to ask for an actual plan?
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/coronavirus-is-it-too-much-to-ask-for-an-actual-plan/
P.S. To Jeremy, the article link I posted above outlines a path to improving the response of managing the Covid-19 crisis.
If that's not what you expect, then I'll delete the post.

That's fine, Bart.

Jeremy

[Jeremy Roussak]

apparently, he can't swim either.

In which parallel universe does that constitute a useful contribution to this thread?

In any case, like the regular flu, I believe this thing is going to die out regardless in the Spring.

I'm sure we can all take great comfort from your beliefs. Do you have any rational basis for them?

Jeremy

[JoeKitchen]

I don't know what it is like with other countries, but the shut down cost 3,000,000 people to loose their jobs in the last week alone here in the USA.  Or should I say, the jobless claims jumped up 3,000,000 above the average. 

That is one serious ramification to the economy that will have long term consequences, and we can not afford for this to get much worse either. 

[Alan Klein]

...

I'm sure we can all take great comfort from your beliefs. Do you have any rational basis for them?

Jeremy

As I posted in another thread, the charts for one.  They appear to be flattening out, turning a corner.  Plus some experts have said deaths seem to be declining in areas that were hit earlier.  So based on the curves and time frames in the charts,  NYC should level off in a couple of weeks then start going down.  So based on those things, my estimate is the whole thing will fade out in 4 or 5 weeks or so.