COVID-19 updates

[hogloff]

I've been thinking that you'd be better off getting sick now while they have ventilators and hospital beds rather than later when there's nothing left.  Pay now or pay later.  It always seem to cost more later.

Who says you can't get nailed twice by the virus?

[LesPalenik]

I was looking for face masks and forgetaboutit. Most are just dust masks, not having the high virus protection.  Those are all backordered.  Paper products, a lot of stuff, all out of stock.  My wife did get Aloe and alcohol from a supermarket to make our own Purell.  I'll have to mix it up and get a dispenser.

Dr. Oz is saying that as a good citizen, you shouldn't be buying masks now and rather keep them for the medical staff.
Good interview with Andy Serwer (25 minutes) - starts at 1:05

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/dr-mehmet-oz-host-dr-110000047.html

[Jim Pascoe]

I very much doubt this.  Month more max, and then it is protect the elderly and sick.  Everyone else gets back to work. 

It just is not possible to shut down the US economy that long.  I know I wont be staying in.

A couple of day’s ago you were saying max two weeks.......  I see you’re beginning to realise the reality.

[JoeKitchen]

A couple of day’s ago you were saying max two weeks.......  I see you’re beginning to realise the reality.

Nope. 

It  just ain't happening.  At a certain point, the cost of lives from shutting the economy will be greater then those whom could die from the virus.  Think about the suicides and drug overdoes that will come from this shut down and loss of jobs. 

Anyway, many of the architects and ad people are still working.  I will be hustling this week regardless of what goes down. 

I can write proposals, just like architects are  doing right now.  I can also schedule exterior one shoots, and get interiors on the books in the coming weeks. 

[JoeKitchen]

Well, we will just have to wait and see.  I can't see the future so I'll just sit back and watch.

I never understood the concept of being a professiobnal photographer and needing to rent just to work.  It must work fine in some markets but in my little corner of the world if you told the client you needed to rent the gear for the shoot and, oh btw, I'm going to bill you for it as well the laughter would never stop.

Today renting space when needed is more accepted, since 2008 wiped out most of the studio space in the area.  You need at least 5000 sq ft of drive in space and thats a lot of overhead.  The problem is there is no dedicated rental space available o we rent empty warehouses, bays in RV storage facilities etc.  Not a lot of small product stuff being done here but most of the guys I know have enough personal space to do so it the need came up.  Its been years since I shot small product, but I enjoyed it when I had my studio.

At $12K to $15K a month, studio space in Manhattan is pricey to own all for yourself. 

[Alan Klein]

Who says you can't get nailed twice by the virus?

Do they let you keep the ventilator the first time so you have it handy?

[hogloff]

Do they let you keep the ventilator the first time so you have it handy?

Only the rich that are buying their own personal ventilator. The rest of us...well we all get a spot in the hallway.

[armand]

The mechanics of a ventilator are probably not that complicated but for it to be more than a simple pump it needs proper programming/software. That takes time, not to mention it has to be very reliable. This is not the place to cut corners.

[Alan Klein]

At $12K to $15K a month, studio space in Manhattan is pricey to own all for yourself. 

After this things ends, they'll be a lot of empty storefronts available.  When I had a business in NYC, I rented a storefront in Long Island City Queens off the main drag of Queens Plaza for those familiar with the area. So it was not expensive but very convenient for transportation and ten minutes from midtown Manhattan .  Owned by a Korean who was hungry.  Turned it into an office on the first floor and had a shop and storage area in the basement.  We didn't get many visitors as we were a specialty construction contractor.  My next door neighbor was a furniture maker and carpenter .  Every year, my secretary would take one day off in Spring when the flying ants would come out in swarms in our office usually in the morning.  She'd scream and leave for the day.  When the landlord tried to make me pay for the exterminator he had to hire, I told him to go shove it and take it out on the guy next door. 

In any case, I think there's going to be lots of space available: storefronts, mini malls, offices.  People are going to walk away from the leases leaving landlords in the lurch with few new customers looking to rent. This virus is going to cause a mess, probably a recession that will take awhile to come back.   I'm glad I'm retired. 

[Alan Klein]

The mechanics of a ventilator are probably not that complicated but for it to be more than a simple pump it needs proper programming/software. That takes time, not to mention it has to be very reliable. This is not the place to cut corners.

And the government is going to get gouged.  I was listening to NYS Governor Cuomo.  He's complaining that $.75 masks are running $7 each or ten times the amount they were paying.  He said each of the States are competing with each other driving the prices higher.  He wants the Feds to buy it figuring they can make  a better deal as a single buyer.  Well, any deal will be better if the can get the Feds to pay for it and NYS doesn't. 

[Robert Roaldi]

On the latest Freakonomcs podcast, some economists speculate on the long-term effects os social isolation, https://freakonomics.com/podcast/covid-19-effects/.

One surprising tidbit was the long-term health benefits of the decrease in pollution in Beijing during the Olympics there. Even though the pollution decrease was temporary, the levels eventually returned to pre-Olympic levels, they found some lasting health benefits compared to other Chinese cities, especially among children, if I remember that detail correctly. I was driving at the time.

[LesPalenik]

Now, that Harvey Weinstein tested positive in jail, where can you feel safe?

[Alan Klein]

On the latest Freakonomcs podcast, some economists speculate on the long-term effects os social isolation, https://freakonomics.com/podcast/covid-19-effects/.

One surprising tidbit was the long-term health benefits of the decrease in pollution in Beijing during the Olympics there. Even though the pollution decrease was temporary, the levels eventually returned to pre-Olympic levels, they found some lasting health benefits compared to other Chinese cities, especially among children, if I remember that detail correctly. I was driving at the time.

How many people could starve, blow their brains out, and jump out of windows if there's a total economic collapse?  The stock market may capitulate this week.  It went through a limit down futures crash on Sunday.  Sure pollution will no longer be a problem nor will CO2 and global warming.  But the ancillary negative effects are going to be catastrophic.  I just read that St. Louis Fed President James Bullard predicts the US GDP may be 50% with an unemployment rate of 30%, worse than the great depression.  People will not be able to survive the economic issues regardless of what's going on medically.  Wealth, assets, savings, currency value, are all going to get wiped out. If the government prints to make everyone whole, we'll become Argentina or Zimbabwe or Germany under the Kaiser with wheelbarrows of worthless paper money.  What do others here  who are in business figure what's going to happen?  How are you planning to survive this thing? 
https://www.ccn.com/dow-futures-crash-1000-points-as-feds-bullard-cites-50-u-s-gdp/

[Craig Lamson]

How many people could starve, blow their brains out, and jump out of windows if there's a total economic collapse?  The stock market may capitulate this week.  It went through a limit down futures crash on Sunday.  Sure pollution will no longer be a problem nor will CO2 and global warming.  But the ancillary negative effects are going to be catastrophic.  I just read that St. Louis Fed President James Bullard predicts the US GDP may be 50% with an unemployment rate of 30%, worse than the great depression.  People will not be able to survive the economic issues regardless of what's going on medically.  Wealth, assets, savings, currency value, are all going to get wiped out. If the government prints to make everyone whole, we'll become Argentina or Zimbabwe or Germany under the Kaiser with wheelbarrows of worthless paper money.  What do others here  who are in business figure what's going to happen?  How are you planning to survive this thing? 
https://www.ccn.com/dow-futures-crash-1000-points-as-feds-bullard-cites-50-u-s-gdp/

What good is having my business survive if I catch this thing and it kills me.  Choose your poison.  Live or keep the economy going and maybe die.   I’ve made my choice and I’ll do whatever I can do to not get coved-19.

[Alan Klein]

What good is having my business survive if I catch this thing and it kills me.  Choose your poison.  Live or keep the economy going and maybe die.   I’ve made my choice and I’ll do whatever I can do to not get coved-19.

I'm 75 with medical issues, so I certainly understand.  It's a terrible conundrum.   Gov Cuomo of NY said that 40-80% of the people are going to get the virus.  Who's he been speaking too?  Fauci?   We're only flattening out the curve so hospitals can handle it, assuming they can and assuming he's right that it won't be stopped.  So we're not hiding from the disease, only ducking for now.  I hope the governor is wrong.  Let's hope Spring stops it.   Meanwhile, I'll make hand sanitizer tomorrow morning with some alcohol and aloe and lemon drops my wife somehow found shopping. I'm glad I don't have to make payroll. 

[armand]

This will be worse, much worse. It has yet to reach a peak in the places affected first, and the bulk is yet to come. I’m afraid in most places the containment came too late, now it only slows it down.

[LesPalenik]

This will be worse, much worse. It has yet to reach a peak in the places affected first, and the bulk is yet to come. I’m afraid in most places the containment came too late, now it only slows it down.

Unfortunately, it's not slowing down yet.
look at the curves below:

[Paulo Bizarro]

If they can recoup the investment before the demand goes down. Right we don't have enough ventilators because there aren't enough healthcare providers and ICU beds to use them. This won't change anytime soon.

China is sending medical supplies to Europe, including ventilators, and including my country (Portugal) for free. So not everybody is thinking "profit" right now.

[Paulo Bizarro]

A couple of day’s ago you were saying max two weeks.......  I see you’re beginning to realise the reality.

In Europe the shutdown will be until June. With the exception of the really necessary industries - mostly supply of foods and medicine.

Ony yesterday did Italy closed down their non-necessary industries in the whole country. Too late. Sometimes, other values other than economy are more important. In Portugal, the finance minister, who very recently was buffooning about deficit zero, and even superavit, has disapeared from the news...

[LesPalenik]

Who says you can't get nailed twice by the virus?

Not only that, but because the first time the virus will weaken your body, and when it comes back the second time, it will hit much harder.