COVID-19 updates

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

And to answer Joe's request for an outlook on time, think in terms of Months of Social Distancing. Group immunity will only develop over months to a year, until there is a vaccine or 60-70 percent of the population has recovered from Covid-19. For that, also more clever ways of testing need to be developed, and increased testing capacity won't hurt.

As has been mentioned, group immunity is not the goal of social distancing, but avoiding an overloaded demand on ICU capacity is. China will see another outbreak as soon as their lockdown is lifted, unless they do it very very gradually.

[LesPalenik]

And just hw exactly did the Italians behave ?
I think you both should be more careful not just over what you post but the manner in which you phrase it.

The Italians are barely one month into this. Isolation measures are into their third week. They moved with speed. No-one, surely, could help but be moved by the sight of army convoys moving the dead to temporary morgues under cover of night. 41,035 cases, 3,405 dead.

Sorry for the wrong choice of words. I never meant to offend the Italian people, but to use Italy as a warning to prevent a similar situation in other countries. If you look at the video from the hospital in Northern Italy as posted by Rob, you'll see that the doctors and other medical staff in that video want the rest of the world to see the dire situation in Italy and to prevent it in their countries.

According to data from Italy’s civil protection authority, there were 823 cases of Covid-19 in Lazio as of Thursday night, compared with 102 on 9 March. In Campania, cases rose from 120 to 652 in 10 days, in Puglia from 50 to 478, in Sicily from 54 to 340, in Calabria from 11 to 169, and in the central Abruzzo region from 30 to 385.

“Doctors there are very concerned about a lack of equipment. As of Wednesday, we still had doctors in the main Covid-19 hospitals in Naples without face masks. One doctor had been using the same one for three days. The other concern is family doctors. In Calabria they received masks and goggles last week, but in Campania, as of Wednesday, they had nothing.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/19/southern-italy-braces-for-tsunami-of-conronavirus-cases

[JoeKitchen]

It is inevitable if people behave like Italians, but the deaths can be drastically reduced if the situation is handled like in South Korea.

I agree, but that does not mean locking up the entire country, because that is not what they did.  It is important to get this moving as quickly as possible to mimic the South Korea response, otherwise Things Fall Apart. 

[JoeKitchen]

And just hw exactly did the Italians behave ?
I think you both should be more careful not just over what you post but the manner in which you phrase it.

The Italians are barely one month into this. Isolation measures are into their third week. They moved with speed. No-one, surely, could help but be moved by the sight of army convoys moving the dead to temporary morgues under cover of night. 41,035 cases, 3,405 dead.

@Joe: Think about it and do us all a favour and stick your ignorance where it belongs. IIRC, you're married to an Italian - repeat 1/3 of your postings in Italy, if you ever go, and don't be in the least surprised 'si ti mandano nel tuo paese' or worse.

Italy has the 2nd oldest population in the world, they did not close off travel from China at the onset (like we did) bringing in cheap workers from China to Milan and surrounding areas, Italians have one of the largest social cultures that have inter-age mingling (compare that Germany where there is much less socialization between generations), it is more common to kiss and hug hello in Italy, etc. etc. 

Talking about basic difference in culture and how Italy did not close off travel to China as quickly is not being ignorant. 

[Manoli]

Italy has the 2nd oldest population in the world, they did not close off travel from China at the onset (like we did) bringing in cheap workers from China to Milan and surrounding areas [...] 

Talking about basic difference in culture and how Italy did not close off travel to China as quickly is not being ignorant.

'You' didn't , 'You' had the benefit of advance warning, and 'You' still got roundly panned for a wanting initial response. The spread wasn't caused by an influx of cheap workers from China (where TF do you get this garbage from?)  but triggered initially by one single person, turned away twice from a hospital who then proceeded to travel from North to South and couldn't be traced. By then the damage was done. An exponential explosion followed.

Lombardy, where the climate is more than 'humid' , proved to be the perfect festering ground for propagation. Unsurprisingly, you can't have noticed the difference in infection rates between the North and South.

South Korea was successful, mainly for two reasons: social-isolation and effective 'trace & quarantine', mainly through mobile phone records.

It's now a world-wide health emergency, otherwise known as a pandemic. Let's treat it as such.

[LesPalenik]

Another reason for the rapid spread of the virus in Italy was that people there underestimated and ignored the need for social isolation and proper distance.

As to South Korea, they did very extensive testing.  Up to 20,000 tests a day, for a country of 51 million. That's about as much as the total number of tests in USA, 6 times the population, since the beginning of the outbreak.

[Alan Goldhammer]

And to answer Joe's request for an outlook on time, think in terms of Months of Social Distancing. Group immunity will only develop over months to a year, until there is a vaccine or 60-70 percent of the population has recovered from Covid-19. For that, also more clever ways of testing need to be developed, and increased testing capacity won't hurt.

It should be possible at this point to develop a COVID-19 antibody test along the lines that is used for many other infectious diseases.  This way they could check for background infections of asymptomatic individuals.  I would require this testing as part of every clinical blood draw.  It would help in identifying the real background rate of infection.  It is my understanding that antibody tests are more robust and can be conducted in a quicker time frame.

[JoeKitchen]

Another reason for the rapid spread of the virus in Italy was that people there underestimated and ignored the need for social isolation and proper distance.

As to South Korea, they did very extensive testing.  They do up to 20,000 tests a day. That's about as much as the total number of tests in USA since the beginning of the outbreak.

And it's a huge failing we cant, for some reason, get to that! 

[JoeKitchen]

I was just listening to historian Victor Davis Hanson on this, who is 66, and feels we went from not doing enough, to getting it just right for about a week to totally over board on this, especially when you look at past  responses to other diseases.  He blames too much social media combined with the hysteria of an election year egging it on.

Cant say I disagree. 

At some point, we also need to take into consideration the negative effects this will have on the economy.  Suicide rates go up when unemployment does, as does addiction rates and related deaths.  We have to start thinking about that as well. 

[kers]

...
Lombardy, where the climate is more than 'humid' , proved to be the perfect festering ground for propagation. Unsurprisingly, you can't have noticed the difference in infection rates between the North and South.
...

I know the river-PO area is a very humid area in winter.
Did the carnaval time also added to the large amount of contaminated people? I know it was cancelled in Venezia, but probably the people coming for the carnaval were already there...
In the Netherlands our peak area is the carnaval area. Carnaval was not cancelled here.
What strikes me in Italy is the very high death rate. What is the cause of that?

[JoeKitchen]

'You' didn't , 'You' had the benefit of advance warning, and 'You' still got roundly panned for a wanting initial response. The spread wasn't caused by an influx of cheap workers from China (where TF do you get this garbage from?)  but triggered initially by one single person, turned away twice from a hospital who then proceeded to travel from North to South and couldn't be traced. By then the damage was done. An exponential explosion followed.

Lombardy, where the climate is more than 'humid' , proved to be the perfect festering ground for propagation. Unsurprisingly, you can't have noticed the difference in infection rates between the North and South.

South Korea was successful, mainly for two reasons: social-isolation and effective 'trace & quarantine', mainly through mobile phone records.

It's now a world-wide health emergency, otherwise known as a pandemic. Let's treat it as such.

I will admit, the source I got this from was wrong, which is pretty reliable. 

In looking for an article to defend my position, I found this one from Forbes:

Italy Banned Flights From China Before America - It Didn’t Work

My apologies. 

[Robert Roaldi]

I read an opinion somewhere about what was (is) different about Italy and many people believe that there is nothing different there. It's what would happen everywhere if measures aren't taken and taken speedily. They were unlucky enough to be the first in Europe and happened to get hit hard because of a number of conditions that were badly aligned. There was always going to be a place that was hit worst. It's important to use the info from their experience.

Some poor 23 year old in Toronto (I think) just recovered and was interviewed. He and many others caught it at spring break parties. Imagine if distancing actions had been delayed by a week or two so that the bars in Florida didn't lose sales. The result would have been thousands of bio-hazards flying home to friends and family all over the continent.

I'm beginning to read reports that the self-immunization that you get from having it may not last long so that you can get it again very soon after the first infection. The reports I read seem to vary on this though so it doesn't sound like this has been nailed down yet. Probably needs more data and analysis.

I remember an early report out of China (maybe, I don't trust my memory) about how people of blood type O seemed to getting less serious symptoms. Is that holding up or was it just an incorrect premature conjecture?

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

It should be possible at this point to develop a COVID-19 antibody test along the lines that is used for many other infectious diseases.  This way they could check for background infections of asymptomatic individuals.  I would require this testing as part of every clinical blood draw.  It would help in identifying the real background rate of infection.  It is my understanding that antibody tests are more robust and can be conducted in a quicker time frame.

Correct, and that's exactly what the "Blood Banks" in the Netherlands are starting to do, next week or so. That should give a statistically relevant test for how many people have been in contact with the virus, symptoms or not.

[Alan Klein]

Web page to see which National Parks are closed or have limited service.  Utah is selected right now.  Select the state you're interested in.  Seems like most are open with visitor centers having limited access which seems reasonable.  Trump has waived entrance fees.
https://www.nps.gov/planyourvisit/alerts.htm?t=Closure&p=1&v=1

[Alan Klein]

Sensible people should be able to walk on uncrowded streets and walkways, empty beaches or forest trails.
However, having beach parties and barbeque picnics or dancing in a tight tango embrace with a stranger would be irresponsible and stupid.

From German press on this very subject today:

The videos shown on TV of crowded beaches used telephoto lenses.  We know about compression being photographers.  Everyone looks much more cramped together than they are.  Of course the newscasters deliberately do that for effect. 

[Robert Roaldi]

Correct, and that's exactly what the "Blood Banks" in the Netherlands are starting to do, next week or so. That should give a statistically relevant test for how many people have been in contact with the virus, symptoms or not.

I just wanted to inject something slightly off-topic. Imagine if part of all the intellectual energy put into tracking our buying and viewing habits online was instead re-directed at big medical data around the world to streamline epidemiology. I hope that I'm utterly ignorant about this and that it is actually already going on.

[Alan Klein]

The biggest problem and stress factor is the uncertainty.
Putting up for a specific time with the stay-at-home policy wouldn't be such a problem if there is a light at the end of the tunnel, but the uncertainty and not being able to trust your own government in handling the crisis is the main issue.

Are you referring to the Canadian government where you live?

[Jim Pascoe]

Jim, you can hammer that point home all you want.  Trust me when I say there are many Americans that could case less about what the best and brightest minds think, and this will only increase if the death rate remains low.  I'm am taking that into account with how I think people will handle this thing.  Warmer weather without a large amount of deaths will bring people out. 

But anyway, here is some dire news from JP Morgan. 

Coronavirus will hit US economy harder than 2008 financial crisis: J.P. Morgan

"The firm sees the U.S. economy shrinking by 5.3 percent from January through March and 14 percent during the following three months. By comparison, the U.S. economy contracted by 7.2 percent during the fourth quarter of 2008, its worst of the global financial crisis, according to the St. Louis Fed.

Still, a sharp snap back to 6 percent growth in the third quarter of this year and 2.3 percent in the fourth leaves the long-term outlook less dire than both the worst year of the financial crisis and the earliest years for which data is available on the Great Depression."

Anyway, at this point, I'm just happy the perennials I ordered in January were still shipped this week and will arrive in time for planting season.  Judging by the grocery, having a means to produce your own food is a positive right now.

Well Joe there is really nothing for us to argue or fall out about.  Let's just wait one week and see where we all are shall we.  Oh, I did seem to read this morning that the whole state of California is advising everyone to stay home.  The governor there suggests that 25 million people there may contract the virus in the next 8 weeks.  If, and that is a big if, only 1% of that number die - unless my maths is faulty that is 250,000 deaths - in one state.  But as I say, let's wait and see......

Jim

[Alan Klein]

And to answer Joe's request for an outlook on time, think in terms of Months of Social Distancing. Group immunity will only develop over months to a year, until there is a vaccine or 60-70 percent of the population has recovered from Covid-19. For that, also more clever ways of testing need to be developed, and increased testing capacity won't hurt.

As has been mentioned, group immunity is not the goal of social distancing, but avoiding an overloaded demand on ICU capacity is. China will see another outbreak as soon as their lockdown is lifted, unless they do it very very gradually.

I thought they're all going back to work and Apple stores are opening throughout China? So we should be seeing an outbreak now.  No?

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

I just wanted to inject something slightly off-topic. Imagine if part of all the intellectual energy put into tracking our buying and viewing habits online was instead re-directed at big medical data around the world to streamline epidemiology. I hope that I'm utterly ignorant about this and that it is actually already going on.

You're correct, and apparently it's happening:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=78vz5HAFDQU