COVID-19 updates

[Craig Lamson]

I'm afraid you are right. Now we might not get that bad but now I'm in the mindset of worst case scenario.

Kalamazoo, Michigan. Cases are coming our way from Detroit (probably the first spot), Ann Arbor and Grand Rapids. Chicago had positive cases long ago also.

I'm close. Fort Wayne IN, no cases here yet either.

[Craig Lamson]

If deaths don't skyrocket in 14 days, it's not going to matter how many experts you put on TV.  Americans will just be Americans.

If deaths don't skyrocket then lets hope Americans follow the rules.

[JoeKitchen]

If deaths don't skyrocket then lets hope Americans follow the rules.

I'll post this again just in case you missed it. 

A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

"This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future." 

Everyone is being hysterical right now.  Dont call me crazy when I am merely looking at this logically. 

[LesPalenik]

Les, 10,000 dead is a lot, and especially if your know one of them.  But from a statistical point of view, by comparison, 500,000 people died from the regular flu in the world last year.  The current situation seems to have settle down in Korea and China, I believe.  Let's hope this thing burns out quickly.

10,000 will be the global death count by Friday, March 20. At the current rate (600-700 dead per day, about half of it just in Italy), it will take only 14 days for the death count to double. Worth mentioning is the fact, that Italy's number of deaths is quickly approaching those in China (2978 vs 3237), and later this week Italy will become the country with the highest Covid-19 death toll.

[Craig Lamson]

I'll post this again just in case you missed it. 

A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

Everyone is being hysterical right now.  Dont call me crazy when I am merely looking at this logically.

I read that eariler in the day well before you posted it.  The thing is I have also read any number of items saying the exact opposite.  We can cherry pick to our hearts content.  I'm in a risk group.  My wife is in a risk group. My Mother, Father and Father in Law are in a risk group. One of my sisters is in a risk group.  I have skin in the game.  I can't tell you if I'm right or you are right but this I know. I'm going to all I can to keep these people and myself safe.  I don't care what it costs me.  If the government says these are the rules I will follow them and I expect everyone else to follow them regardless of how they feel about the rules or the government. 

Its easy to say everyone is being hysterical when you are not in a risk group.  What's hard is to think of your neighbor and how your actions might effect them.

Not to make this personal but way too many people don't seem to give a dang becuse they think they are immune to the problem. Logic on this issue depends on your perspective. 

[Craig Lamson]

10,000 will be the global death count by Friday, March 20. At the current rate (600-700 dead per day, about half of it just in Italy), it will take only 14 days for the death count to double. Worth mentioning is the fact, that Italy's number of deaths is quickly approaching those in China (2978 vs 3237), and later this week Italy will become the country with the highest Covid-19 death toll.

It should be noted that these death tolls are being limited to some extent to the prevention factors being put in place.  Left unchecked I can imagien a much higher numner of dead. 

[Alan Goldhammer]

What are you planning to do with your $2000 check from the government?

It's not at all clear who will receive such payments.  If they use last years Adjusted Gross Income above a certain threshold, a number of people will not get checks.  We didn't get a check the last time they did this following the financial meltdown.  I'm not expecting one this time around either.

[armand]

Does ultraviolet kill viruses?

A month ago I got this in preparation  : https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B071KGVLBB/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o06_s01?ie=UTF8&th=1

(already out of stock now) 

[JoeKitchen]

I read that eariler in the day well before you posted it.  The thing is I have also read any number of items saying the exact opposite.  We can cherry pick to our hearts content.  I'm in a risk group.  My wife is in a risk group. My Mother, Father and Father in Law are in a risk group. One of my sisters is in a risk group.  I have skin in the game.  I can't tell you if I'm right or you are right but this I know. I'm going to all I can to keep these people and myself safe.  I don't care what it costs me.  If the government says these are the rules I will follow them and I expect everyone else to follow them regardless of how they feel about the rules or the government. 

Its easy to say everyone is being hysterical when you are not in a risk group.  What's hard is to think of your neighbor and how your actions might effect them.

Not to make this personal but way too many people don't seem to give a dang becuse they think they are immune to the problem. Logic on this issue depends on your perspective.

Well Craig, I'm not going to stop looking at this logically, and this goes right back to Alan's point that even our experts are not in agreement. 

Lock yourself up for a year if you feel that is the best thing to do for your situation.  Maybe if I was your age and had the money I would, or maybe I would take the Dennis Miller route, you cant just put yourself in a state of depression when looking at the end of the world. 

I almost never look at things emotionally and practically feel I even lack the ability to do so. 

[faberryman]

It's not at all clear who will receive such payments.  If they use last years Adjusted Gross Income above a certain threshold, a number of people will not get checks.  We didn't get a check the last time they did this following the financial meltdown.  I'm not expecting one this time around either.

I seem to remember that the last time they sent out checks, people used them to pay down credit card debt, so they didn't have as much of  a stimulus on the economy as was hoped. It seems like a grossly inefficient way to get money in the hands of the truly needy.

[Craig Lamson]

Well Craig, I'm not going to stop looking at this logically, and this goes right back to Alan's point that even our experts are not in agreement. 

Lock yourself up for a year if you feel that is the best thing to do for your situation.  Maybe if I was your age and had the money I would, or maybe I would take the Dennis Miller route, you cant just put yourself in a state of depression when looking at the end of the world. 

I almost never look at things emotionally and practically feel I even lack the ability to do so.

I'm far from depressed and from my position this is the only logical course.  Your mileage may vary.  But as an American I do expect that you and others follow the rules, whatever they may be, like them or not.

[Alan Goldhammer]

I seem to remember that the last time they sent out checks, people used them to pay down credit card debt, so they didn't have as much of  a stimulus on the economy as was hoped. It seems like a grossly inefficient way to get money in the hands of the truly needy.

That's correct.  There are a lot of Americans who have little savings and the paycheck immediately goes to housing, food and other essentials.  It's not that there isn't money in the system in the US, there is no where to spend it other than for groceries, prescriptions.  Movies, restaurants, theater, etc. are all closed.  We had tickets to Guys and Dolls here in DC for today and it was cancelled.  Even if you wanted to travel, that's pretty difficult and who knows even if it is risky in terms of contracting COVID.  The only thing I've spent money on in the past two weeks was parts for my new PC workstation as my old one was over five years old, and memory sticks were not available so I couldn't upgrade.  That's it other than paying bills and buying groceries.

[Alan Goldhammer]

Well Craig, I'm not going to stop looking at this logically, and this goes right back to Alan's point that even our experts are not in agreement. 

Good decision making requires data.  Because of the testing snafu here in the US and weird data from all over, nobody can make a decent decision about whether there is a serious pandemic on hand or this is just a bit worse than past virulent flu epidemics.  I look at the WHO data each day.  Germany has been putting up the lowest mortality numbers as of today;  o.2% which is about where the 1918 flu was.  It could be this number is too high as it's easier to count dead bodies than it is to count the number of those infected.  This is in stark contrast to Italy where the rate is about 9%.  Which one is correct?  Both countries have universal health coverage and while you might be skeptical of China's numbers, these may be decent enough.  The Nordic countries are a shade higher than Germany.  Even with those low numbers Germany adopted strong measures to halt spread of the virus.

I will say it one final time, anything one reads or hears at this point is just conjecture.  Things may be like Italy or they may be like Germany; we don't know.  the only thing that is certain is that people are dying from COVID-19 infections and at this point in time that rate is higher than the seasonal flu.

[JoeKitchen]

I'm far from depressed and from my position this is the only logical course.  Your mileage may vary.  But as an American I do expect that you and others follow the rules, whatever they may be, like them or not.

I will, to a degree. 

If the rules are shut it down for the next 14 or 21 days, I'll play along.  If it is for the next 90 and people are not dropping like flies, that is what I would consider illogical and mass hysteria.  I will not follow rules that fall into this criteria, I dont care who is putting them forth. 

[MattBurt]

The problem is experts have differing opinions.  Ever listen to stock market reviews?  It's why we have bears and bulls.  Why do we have such differing opinions in these forums? Same with many scientific and economic things.  Then you have politicians and newspapers who spin the news and facts to fit their own agenda.  The poor guy on the street like us is just confused and finds it hard to believe anyone.  That's why politicians, media, and so many other have so low levels of trust.  Also, even experts can't read the future.  They don't have crystal balls.  This seems like a new situation we haven;t faced before.  Also, fighting the last war may not be the way to fight the new one.  History has a way of surprising us.   God too.

Actual experts on this issue are generally in consensus about the severity of it. But people who play experts on TV have been introducing doubt to the public.

[Robert Roaldi]

I will, to a degree. 

If the rules are shut it down for the next 14 or 21 days, I'll play along.  If it is for the next 90 and people are not dropping like flies, that is what I would consider illogical and mass hysteria.  I will not follow rules that fall into this criteria, I dont care who is putting them forth.

I understand your position but it appears to me that you're going out of your way to create confrontation where none exists. No one is curbing your constitutional rights, not in any substantial way. Not yet anyway, not even close. Your elected officials are requesting your assistance in addressing an issue that has society-wide ramifications. Why wouldn't you want to cooperate. Some of them may goof up and make dumb decisions about golf courses and beaches, it happens, so vote them out next time round. People who study these things are erring on the side of caution because the downside risks of not doing that are potentially very high. And all the decisions are being revisited constantly. At this point why would you do it any other way. The virus is out, it cannot be stopped, so all we can do is minimize damage.

[JoeKitchen]

I understand your position but it appears to me that you're going out of your way to create confrontation where none exists. No one is curbing your constitutional rights, not in any substantial way. Not yet anyway, not even close. Your elected officials are requesting your assistance in addressing an issue that has society-wide ramifications. Why wouldn't you want to cooperate. Some of them may goof up and make dumb decisions about golf courses and beaches, it happens, so vote them out next time round. People who study these things are erring on the side of caution because the downside risks of not doing that are potentially very high. And all the decisions are being revisited constantly. At this point why would you do it any other way. The virus is out, it cannot be stopped, so all we can do is minimize damage.

I'm going for a walk.  Cheers. 

[Rob C]

The lunatics are not all in the asylums.

[Robert Roaldi]

I'm going for a walk, outside.  Cheers.

Good move. I went out twice today, once to take some photos. It's not often you can do urban photography without a million cars or pedestrians ruining the shot. I'm a sucker for DWC movies (Decline of Western Civilization, post apocalypse, Mad Max Road Warrior), so empty streets and highways are very appealing. We actually still have too much action here, I'll try again early Sunday morning.

[Robert Roaldi]

The lunatics are not all in the asylums.

We have a couple down the block. Police were there again last night. Some domestic dispute, I figure.