COVID-19 updates

[JoeKitchen]

On my 2 hour walk today, hiking along a trail no wider then two cars, I walked past at least 300 different people of all ages, many in groups. 

I have come to a few conclusions.  People wont listen to this.  On this forum, amongst those who lean more towards typing instead of talking, what you guys think can happen may be a consensus.  But in reality, real people are not going to follow these rules without serious in your face consequences.  Especially with spring around the corner and winter coming to an end, people will not stay cooped up inside, at least not in northern locations.  People are ready for nice weather. 

Be chicken little if you want, they are not going to pay attention unless things become like Italy. 

I have already talked to some clients, and they are not planning on working from home much longer then what I listed earlier.

In a week and half, two weeks max, I foresee those couple shoots I postponed being shot and others being scheduled under the current situation.  Next week could change this if the death stats rise, but if not ...

The idea we can lock down for a few months without completely changing the psyche of the country, without great issues, is not something I think is possible, nor would I ever want to see our psyche change to allow for that.  It would fundamentally change what it means to be American; our mentality would become as being subservient to the state. 

[LesPalenik]

Angela Merkel sees the corona crisis as the greatest challenge since World War II. She uses dramatic words to address the nation in a television speech - and appeals to the sense of responsibility of the people in the country:
At the moment, only distance is an expression of care.

The Chancellor warned that hospitals would be overwhelmed if many Corona patients were admitted in a very short time. "These are not simply abstract figures in statistics, but that is a father or grandfather, a mother or grandmother, a partner, they are people."

The "most urgent" thing for her this evening was the message that all government measures would be ineffective, "if we did not use the most effective means to prevent the virus from spreading too quickly: and we are ourselves," said the Chancellor. "Everyone counts, it takes our effort."

Merkel appealed to the citizens' sense of responsibility to follow the agreed rules. "It depends on everyone. We are not condemned to passively accept the spread of the virus. We have a remedy for this: we have to keep a distance from each other out of respect." At the moment it is "only an expression of care". You have to limit the risk "that one infects the other as much as we can".

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/angela-merkel-sieht-corona-krise-als-groesste-herausforderung-seit-dem-zweiten-weltkrieg-a-bd56dc3f-2436-4a03-b2cf-5e44e06ffb49

[JoeKitchen]

As I said: 

In pictures: Hoboken, NJ, issues self-isolation order but few listen

Not that I condone this; I do honestly feel that this point a two week lockdown is a good idea.  But being a realist, I am not surprised by this either.  Those in power should come up with a better idea soon. 

But anyway, I will continue to be inside for a little more, mostly.  Yesterday was a Gouda day.  If I can get six gallons of milk tomorrow, it might be a Gruyere day with some ricotta left overs. 

[chez]

On my 2 hour walk today, hiking along a trail no wider then two cars, I walked past at least 300 different people of all ages, many in groups. 

I have come to a few conclusions.  People wont listen to this.  On this forum, amongst those who lean more towards typing instead of talking, what you guys think can happen may be a consensus.  But in reality, real people are not going to follow these rules without serious in your face consequences.  Especially with spring around the corner and winter coming to an end, people will not stay cooped up inside, at least not in northern locations.  People are ready for nice weather. 

Be chicken little if you want, they are not going to pay attention unless things become like Italy. 

I have already talked to some clients, and they are not planning on working from home much longer then what I listed earlier.

In a week and half, two weeks max, I foresee those couple shoots I postponed being shot and others being scheduled under the current situation.  Next week could change this if the death stats rise, but if not ...

The idea we can lock down for a few months without completely changing the psyche of the country, without great issues, is not something I think is possible, nor would I ever want to see our psyche change to allow for that.  It would fundamentally change what it means to be American; our mentality would become as being subservient to the state.

Why do you feel this lock down is the man sticking it to you? Are Americans so inward looking that they can not understand these measures might not be saving their life...but maybe their neighbors. Have you been burned so badly that you don't trust anyone...not even experts in this field? Do you feel this is some kind of sick experiment on the human psyche.

[JoeKitchen]

Why do you feel this lock down is the man sticking it to you? Are Americans so inward looking that they can not understand these measures might not be saving their life...but maybe their neighbors. Have you been burned so badly that you don't trust anyone...not even experts in this field? Do you feel this is some kind of sick experiment on the human psyche.

Not being an American, you just simply cant understand.  It's like trying to explain to fish how to fly.  We have a canker in our hearts for governance, going all the way back to George the III. 

[chez]

Not being an American, you just simply cant understand.  It's like trying to explain to fish how to fly.  We have a canker in our hearts for governance going all the way back to George the III.

Well I feel sorry for you...looking over your shoulder to ensure the man ain't about to stab you in the back.

[Alan Klein]

Good decision making requires data.  Because of the testing snafu here in the US and weird data from all over, nobody can make a decent decision about whether there is a serious pandemic on hand or this is just a bit worse than past virulent flu epidemics.  I look at the WHO data each day.  Germany has been putting up the lowest mortality numbers as of today;  o.2% which is about where the 1918 flu was.  It could be this number is too high as it's easier to count dead bodies than it is to count the number of those infected.  This is in stark contrast to Italy where the rate is about 9%.  Which one is correct?  Both countries have universal health coverage and while you might be skeptical of China's numbers, these may be decent enough.  The Nordic countries are a shade higher than Germany.  Even with those low numbers Germany adopted strong measures to halt spread of the virus.

I will say it one final time, anything one reads or hears at this point is just conjecture.  Things may be like Italy or they may be like Germany; we don't know.  the only thing that is certain is that people are dying from COVID-19 infections and at this point in time that rate is higher than the seasonal flu.

The rate may be higher than the seasonal flu.  But that's based on detected cases.  Is the rate higher in absolute numbers of how many are dying per week or per month?  If 10,000 died in one to two months compared to 500,000 for the regular flu for the entire season last year, the coronavirus rate seems a lot lower in absolute numbers.  I'm not being nonchalant about this being in the worse group.  But the facts and statistics don't equate to something more serious than the seasonal flu.  Maybe my statistics and thinking are wrong.    Maybe someone could correct me.  But something doesn't jive.

[Alan Klein]

Good move. I went out twice today, once to take some photos. It's not often you can do urban photography without a million cars or pedestrians ruining the shot. I'm a sucker for DWC movies (Decline of Western Civilization, post apocalypse, Mad Max Road Warrior), so empty streets and highways are very appealing. We actually still have too much action here, I'll try again early Sunday morning.

Perfect time for drive-in movies.  That would be neat.  Of course, while you sit in the front your girlfriend would have to sit in the back.

[Alan Klein]

Just saw a report that the Chinese are testing a vaccine candidate and are set to ramp up bulk production.

A horrible movie.  China planned this the whole time.  They started it to destroy western civilization and take over as the first economy and military of the world while having the antidote already designed to stop it in their country and then sell it to the rest of the bankrupt world.  Truth may be stranger than fiction.

[LesPalenik]

The rate may be higher than the seasonal flu.  But that's based on detected cases.  Is the rate higher in absolute numbers of how many are dying per week or per month?  If 10,000 died in one to two months compared to 500,000 for the regular flu for the entire season last year, the coronavirus rate seems a lot lower in absolute numbers.  I'm not being nonchalant about this being in the worse group.  But the facts and statistics don't equate to something more serious than the seasonal flu.  Maybe my statistics and thinking are wrong.    Maybe someone could correct me.  But something doesn't jive.

It is true that not all C19 cases are reported, and also all such deaths are not correctly identified. But these are the best stats we can get right now.
BTW, a few days ago, I estimated that by weekend the global infections and deaths will reach 250,000, resp, 10,000. However, both the infection and death curves are rapidly steepening. Today, almost 1,000 fatalities were reported. We may reach the aforementioned numbers by early Friday.

[James Clark]

A horrible movie.  China planned this the whole time.  They started it to destroy western civilization and take over as the first economy and military of the world while having the antidote already designed to stop it in their country and then sell it to the rest of the bankrupt world.  Truth may be stranger than fiction.

 

[Martin Kristiansen]

We have a rapidly growing epidemic in South Africa. Schools closed and all sport suspended. No public gatherings of over 100 people, 50 where alcohol is served. Streets are very quiet and roads a pleasure to drive on.

I had a shoot on Tuesday. Last pice of a coffee table book for a corporate client. I went and did the shoot and also photographed hand sanitizer since that is one of their products that is selling really well. I have another shoot today. Just a half day. I am going to do it. Next week another shoot for an industrial lighting company. Tuesday to Thursday a shoot for a retreat centre and hour out of the city. Quiet place with just 5 people during the week. I will do that shoot as well.

Not going out needlessly but did go to a restaurant on Monday. No shaking hands or hugging. Didn’t go for my usual beard trim at the local barber. I’m being careful I think but life goes on. Don’t want to spread it but not particularly concerned for myself. I am 59 and have survived worse stuff than this. Eventually something will get me and that thing is logically getting closer and closer. Hope it’s not this stupid ass virus but it could be. All the deaths are awful but I’m enjoying the quiet.

[KLaban]

On my 2 hour walk today, hiking along a trail no wider then two cars, I walked past at least 300 different people of all ages, many in groups. 

I have come to a few conclusions.  People wont listen to this.  On this forum, amongst those who lean more towards typing instead of talking, what you guys think can happen may be a consensus.  But in reality, real people are not going to follow these rules without serious in your face consequences.  Especially with spring around the corner and winter coming to an end, people will not stay cooped up inside, at least not in northern locations.  People are ready for nice weather. 

Be chicken little if you want, they are not going to pay attention unless things become like Italy. 

I have already talked to some clients, and they are not planning on working from home much longer then what I listed earlier.

In a week and half, two weeks max, I foresee those couple shoots I postponed being shot and others being scheduled under the current situation.  Next week could change this if the death stats rise, but if not ...

The idea we can lock down for a few months without completely changing the psyche of the country, without great issues, is not something I think is possible, nor would I ever want to see our psyche change to allow for that.  It would fundamentally change what it means to be American; our mentality would become as being subservient to the state.

Hey, cowboy, I give thanks for the Atlantic Ocean.

[Paulo Bizarro]

On my 2 hour walk today, hiking along a trail no wider then two cars, I walked past at least 300 different people of all ages, many in groups. 

I have come to a few conclusions.  People wont listen to this.  On this forum, amongst those who lean more towards typing instead of talking, what you guys think can happen may be a consensus.  But in reality, real people are not going to follow these rules without serious in your face consequences.  Especially with spring around the corner and winter coming to an end, people will not stay cooped up inside, at least not in northern locations.  People are ready for nice weather. 

Be chicken little if you want, they are not going to pay attention unless things become like Italy. 

I have already talked to some clients, and they are not planning on working from home much longer then what I listed earlier.

In a week and half, two weeks max, I foresee those couple shoots I postponed being shot and others being scheduled under the current situation.  Next week could change this if the death stats rise, but if not ...

The idea we can lock down for a few months without completely changing the psyche of the country, without great issues, is not something I think is possible, nor would I ever want to see our psyche change to allow for that.  It would fundamentally change what it means to be American; our mentality would become as being subservient to the state.

A few comments:

1. Lockdown and social quarentine is the onlyway to arrest the spread of the infection. South Korea a few weeks ago was the worst case after China. They enforced quarentine and arrested the contagion - 80 something dead.

2. There are reliable mathematical models to forecast the numbers. The epidemics follows a sigmoid curve, with an initially long tail - which makes people think itis not serious - an exponential growth phase, a peak and plateau, and then a descent. The number of cases doubles avery 2 or 3 days. Portugal started with 2 on March 2, yesterday we had 600+.

[Paulo Bizarro]

The rate may be higher than the seasonal flu.  But that's based on detected cases.  Is the rate higher in absolute numbers of how many are dying per week or per month?  If 10,000 died in one to two months compared to 500,000 for the regular flu for the entire season last year, the coronavirus rate seems a lot lower in absolute numbers.  I'm not being nonchalant about this being in the worse group.  But the facts and statistics don't equate to something more serious than the seasonal flu.  Maybe my statistics and thinking are wrong.    Maybe someone could correct me.  But something doesn't jive.

The issue is the stress imposed on already delapidated and non-prepared health care systems. One thing is treating patients with seasonal flus, hospitals are prepared to receive say a few patients a day with pneumonia. The problem with covid19 is that the infection rate is much higher - all of a sudden the hospital is flooded with say 50 or 100 people with serious pneunomia. Germany seems tohave enough repsirators to treat people.

Not the case with Italy, where doctors are admiting only patients with 60+ years. Infected cases double every 2 days in the exponential growth phase. Here in Portugal we already know that the peak of the curve will be in 2 - 3 weeks - yesterday we had 600+ infected, tomorrow it will be 1,200, and so forth. In 2 weeks we will have 30,000 - of those, 5% will need ventilation in hospitals and ICU treatment.

Numbers do not lie, and everybody should learn from what happened already in other countries.

[LesPalenik]

The issue is the stress imposed on already delapidated and non-prepared health care systems. One thing is treating patients with seasonal flus, hospitals are prepared to receive say a few patients a day with pneumonia. The problem with covid19 is that the infection rate is much higher - all of a sudden the hospital is flooded with say 50 or 100 people with serious pneunomia. Germany seems tohave enough repsirators to treat people.

Not the case with Italy, where doctors are admiting only patients with 60+ years. Infected cases double every 2 days in the exponential growth phase. Here in Portugal we already know that the peak of the curve will be in 2 - 3 weeks - yesterday we had 600+ infected, tomorrow it will be 1,200, and so forth. In 2 weeks we will have 30,000 - of those, 5% will need ventilation in hospitals and ICU treatment.

Numbers do not lie, and everybody should learn from what happened already in other countries.

This is frightening, but very likely.
I just listened to a short excerpt from the Sandra Maischberger TV show in Germany, where the scientist Karl Lauterbach explains that in Germany with the current official infection count of 12,300 it is expected that by the weekend they will have 20,000 cases and in a few weeks the total count will be in a 6-digit range.

https://www.spiegel.de/kultur/tv/sandra-maischberger-zum-coronavirus-a-8c0df505-ae8e-41c9-9aec-2518ec470107

[athegn]

Went for a 10 mile hike yesterday, in Essex UK. As usual on, my tracks, saw almost no one. Saw 4 other hikers on a parallel track. Even stopped at a pub lunchtime. Only 3 people in the bar I used; due to bar's size we were well spread. Used my phone to pay; reducing contact.

Intend to carry on with these hikes; just reduce pub visits. My wife will join me for the shorter hikes.

[LesPalenik]

Reported in Swiss Neue Zuercher Zeitung:
Psychiatrist Julius Kurmann about the Corona emergency situation: "It is the uncertainty that makes us people despair".

A deadly virus, closed shops, empty streets: the threat is visible everywhere. What does it do to people?

There are two reactions: some deal with it constructively. They take the situation as it is, saying that it is actually good that everything is once again less hectic and less loud. Others react fearfully. On the one hand, this is understandable. After all, we don't know what to expect. However, some people also have exaggerated, panicky fear. They have the feeling that the only downward trend now is that we are all dying.

How does this fatalism come about?

Anyone who constantly deals with the subject of corona virus gets into a kind of trance. It's a life like in a disaster movie. When we turn on the television, we are constantly confronted with epidemiologists and virologists who tell us that the worst-case scenario is imminent. Those who do not distinguish themselves here will find themselves in a pull.

Is there a fear of an increase in domestic violence due to the current circumstances?

I am not a prophet, but this could be one of many effects. The restriction of the freedom we are experiencing harbors dangers. That worries me a little. The worst case scenario would be if this exceptional situation were extended again and again. Now everything is still fresh, we are just getting used to these new conditions. But at some point you want the whole thing to end. And if this end is not in sight, it can become problematic. It is the uncertain that makes us humans despair.

It is sometimes heard that risk groups, especially older people, underestimated the situation. What is your impression?

I sometimes have that feeling too. Still, I believe that most are slowly but surely aware of the serious situation. However, I find it human that such a change cannot happen overnight. We are not machines that can simply flip a switch. You have to be patient here. People will gradually adapt more and more.

Full interview:
https://www.nzz.ch/zuerich/coronavirus-in-zuerich-ein-leben-wie-in-einem-katastrophenfilm-ld.1547124

You can use translate.google.com to translate the article to English or other language. The translator software is very good, I am quite impressed how much this tool improved over the years.

[JoeKitchen]

A few comments:

1. Lockdown and social quarentine is the onlyway to arrest the spread of the infection. South Korea a few weeks ago was the worst case after China. They enforced quarentine and arrested the contagion - 80 something dead.

2. There are reliable mathematical models to forecast the numbers. The epidemics follows a sigmoid curve, with an initially long tail - which makes people think itis not serious - an exponential growth phase, a peak and plateau, and then a descent. The number of cases doubles avery 2 or 3 days. Portugal started with 2 on March 2, yesterday we had 600+.

Paulo, I am just being a realist here with whether or not Americans will actually follow these. 

Hoboken, one of the most left leaning cities in the country where you would think the residents would have a propensity to follow their elected leaders, went out in droves yesterday and thumbed their nose at city hall's lockdown.   

I was talking to my aunt who is 84 last night, and, without even bringing it up, she mentioned people wont live like this.

We may have to start thinking about setting up isolation camps for elderly people and others at risk while this is blowing over.  Or at the very least, provide them with additional services so they can remain in doors. 

[Rob C]

Hey, cowboy, I give thanks for the Atlantic Ocean.

Added to which, the Mediterranean!

I wonder if US television has given some of its local viewers a hero/idiot complex? Perhaps because it's in their own language they actually believe it, as some do their current head honcho?

 Strange.