COVID-19 updates

[Jim Pascoe]

On my 2 hour walk today, hiking along a trail no wider then two cars, I walked past at least 300 different people of all ages, many in groups. 

I have come to a few conclusions.  People wont listen to this.  On this forum, amongst those who lean more towards typing instead of talking, what you guys think can happen may be a consensus.  But in reality, real people are not going to follow these rules without serious in your face consequences.  Especially with spring around the corner and winter coming to an end, people will not stay cooped up inside, at least not in northern locations.  People are ready for nice weather. 

Be chicken little if you want, they are not going to pay attention unless things become like Italy. 

I have already talked to some clients, and they are not planning on working from home much longer then what I listed earlier.

In a week and half, two weeks max, I foresee those couple shoots I postponed being shot and others being scheduled under the current situation.  Next week could change this if the death stats rise, but if not ...

The idea we can lock down for a few months without completely changing the psyche of the country, without great issues, is not something I think is possible, nor would I ever want to see our psyche change to allow for that.  It would fundamentally change what it means to be American; our mentality would become as being subservient to the state.

I've not been on the forum for a few days - but as this thread was so long I skipped to the last page, and the quoted post above was the first I read.  Are the majority of US citizens like this - or have I just come on here a week too early and the reality has not sunk in yet....?

I'm a professional photographer and been working as such for 22 years.  I don't do many wedding these days and those I have booked for the next few months have all been postponed till next year.  Most of my photography is in schools, and they are all now shutting down - probably until September.  Once I get my recent invoices in and hopefully paid, I'm unlikely to earn anything at all for six months.

Most of us will contract the Coronavirus at some point in the coming months or may be a bit more.  The plan here in the UK is to try and spread that over as many months as possible rather than taking the hit in the next three months as would happen if left unchecked.  The difference it is suggested would be in the former case, keeping the fatalities down to the tens of thousands (though I think it is likely to be higher than that) or in the latter case possibly 500,000 deaths within six months.  Seasonal flu in the UK kills around 8000.

As others have pointed out - it's not necessarily about you - it's about your neighbours.  As in all times of social disruption, war, natural disaster, or this pandemic - we will really see the true nature of people whether they are family, friends or politicians.  It is a time to rise up to the challenge, not to selfishly think of oneself.  If society seriously breaks down, money will be worthless - fellow man invaluable.

Jim

[Jim Pascoe]

And one more thing - as I said, I've not had time to read through this whole thread so I'm not sure if this has been mentioned yet - but the US president.  I know we in the UK have Boris, the slightly dishevelled bumbling man.  But Trump...... I saw him on TV yesterday and I could hardly believe what I was hearing.  He talks like a man with some sort of mental defect.  I'm sure there are very clever people who know what they are doing around him - but this is a time for a President who can be trusted and provide true leadership surely.

By the way, in a couple of weeks I will have plenty of time on my hands to keep more up to date with the Lula forum.....

Jim

[Robert Roaldi]

This is a link to a very technical paper regarding the impact and effectiveness of non-pharma interventions https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf. It's long and involved but here is the summary/abstract:

Summary
The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in recent weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number of public health measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – aimed at reducing contact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented here, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britain specifically) and the US. We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission.
Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.
We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should be recognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased absenteeism. The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound. Last, while experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible in the short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social and economic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced.

[Rob C]

Not being an American, you just simply cant understand.  It's like trying to explain to fish how to fly.  We have a canker in our hearts for governance, going all the way back to George the III.

No, it's not like explaining to fish how to fly, though some learned how to glide a long, long time ago.

One does not have to be an American, a Brit or an anything else to understand that some things are greater than self. Failure to understand that implies some sort of mental underdevelopment or basic fault in the wiring.

Americans blaming some long-dead British king is as daft as the Irish blaming some other long-dead group of idiots for the problems that they, they Irish, perpetuate in the north of their godforsaken island; that past is history, and today is a different word; don't be living relics.

For your sake, the sake of your family, try to wake up to the grim reality that has descended upon mankind. Alternatively, just carry on as usual and destroy the lot of us. Is your own life really so bad you secretly want to do that?

[JoeKitchen]

I've not been on the forum for a few days - but as this thread was so long I skipped to the last page, and the quoted post above was the first I read.  Are the majority of US citizens like this - or have I just come on here a week too early and the reality has not sunk in yet....?

I'm a professional photographer and been working as such for 22 years.  I don't do many wedding these days and those I have booked for the next few months have all been postponed till next year.  Most of my photography is in schools, and they are all now shutting down - probably until September.  Once I get my recent invoices in and hopefully paid, I'm unlikely to earn anything at all for six months.

Most of us will contract the Coronavirus at some point in the coming months or may be a bit more.  The plan here in the UK is to try and spread that over as many months as possible rather than taking the hit in the next three months as would happen if left unchecked.  The difference it is suggested would be in the former case, keeping the fatalities down to the tens of thousands (though I think it is likely to be higher than that) or in the latter case possibly 500,000 deaths within six months.  Seasonal flu in the UK kills around 8000.

As others have pointed out - it's not necessarily about you - it's about your neighbours.  As in all times of social disruption, war, natural disaster, or this pandemic - we will really see the true nature of people whether they are family, friends or politicians.  It is a time to rise up to the challenge, not to selfishly think of oneself.  If society seriously breaks down, money will be worthless - fellow man invaluable.

Jim

Nearly everyone on this forum is missing what I am saying. 

Although you can bet on this type of thing happening in other countries, I just cant see this being the case in the USA.  You are wearing rose colored glasses if you are betting on this alone without any backup plans here. 

Personal attacks against myself is not going to change the attitude of Americans.  You cant goad the entire country into feeling guilty.  You work with the people you have and craft plans that you know will work with those people, and I think it is not a stretch to say Americans are unlike anyone else, especially those in Europe. 

We need other plans than relying on self-isolation before it is too late.  Hoboken proved this yesterday. 

[JoeKitchen]

No, it's not like explaining to fish how to fly, though some learned how to glide a long, long time ago.

One does not have to be an American, a Brit or an anything else to understand that some things are greater than self. Failure to understand that implies some sort of mental underdevelopment or basic fault in the wiring.

Americans blaming some long-dead British king is as daft as the Irish blaming some other long-dead group of idiots for the problems that they, they Irish, perpetuate in the north of their godforsaken island; that past is history, and today is a different word; don't be living relics.

For your sake, the sake of your family, try to wake up to the grim reality that has descended upon mankind. Alternatively, just carry on as usual and destroy the lot of us. Is your own life really so bad you secretly want to do that?

Thanks for proving my point. 

[Robert Roaldi]

Nearly everyone on this forum is missing what I am saying. 

Although you can bet on this type of thing happening in other countries, I just cant see this being the case in the USA.  You are wearing rose colored glasses if you are betting on this alone without any backup plans here. 

Personal attacks against myself is not going to change the attitude of Americans.  You cant goad the entire country into feeling guilty.  You work with the people you have and craft plans that you know will work with those people, and I think it is not a stretch to say Americans are unlike anyone else, especially those in Europe. 

We need other plans than relying on self-isolation before it is too late.  Hoboken proved this yesterday.

No one is attacking you, some are just disagreeing with you.

[KLaban]

Nearly everyone on this forum is missing what I am saying. 

Although you can bet on this type of thing happening in other countries, I just cant see this being the case in the USA.  You are wearing rose colored glasses if you are betting on this alone without any backup plans here. 

Personal attacks against myself is not going to change the attitude of Americans.  You cant goad the entire country into feeling guilty.  You work with the people you have and craft plans that you know will work with those people, and I think it is not a stretch to say Americans are unlike anyone else, especially those in Europe. 

We need other plans than relying on self-isolation before it is too late.  Hoboken proved this yesterday.

What I do I get is that you're speaking on behalf of the American people: I don't get that as being particularly wise or indeed accurate.

[JoeKitchen]

What I do I get is that you're speaking on behalf of the American people: I don't get that as being particularly wise or indeed accurate.

See the link I posted on Hoboken.  People won’t care until it is too late.  Other plans better be in place. B

[Craig Lamson]

See the link I posted on Hoboken.  People won’t care until it is too late.  Other plans better be in place. B

I just read a piece about the mandatory lockdown in San Francisco.   Despite your predictions they are obeying the order quite faithfully.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/everything-out-our-control-san-francisco-eases-lockdown-n1163376

I simply don’t believe most American will behave like you suggest.  I would be very disappointed with our society and country if that were the case.  This is not going to be easy, in fact it will be quite painful and it’s going to test every person around the globe.  There has always been good and bad in mankind.  I for one hope that good prevails. 

[Craig Lamson]

Italy's fleet of the dead: Military trucks transport scores of coronavirus victims' coffins to be cremated

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8129959/Military-trucks-transport-Italian-coronavirus-victims-coffins-cremated.html

[Jim Pascoe]

Nearly everyone on this forum is missing what I am saying. 

Although you can bet on this type of thing happening in other countries, I just cant see this being the case in the USA.  You are wearing rose colored glasses if you are betting on this alone without any backup plans here. 

Personal attacks against myself is not going to change the attitude of Americans.  You cant goad the entire country into feeling guilty.  You work with the people you have and craft plans that you know will work with those people, and I think it is not a stretch to say Americans are unlike anyone else, especially those in Europe. 

We need other plans than relying on self-isolation before it is too late.  Hoboken proved this yesterday.

Joe it was not meant as any sort of personal attack.. I am just bemused at the attitude.  This is not about the 'State' versus anyone - it is about listening to the best brains in science, allowing the politicians to interpret that advice, and citizens doing their best to mitigate the potential disaster.  You talk about going out anyway in a couple of weeks to do a portrait shoot as if it's an important thing to do.  It's not that important.  If you work in healthcare, or need to go out to shop for a vulnerable neighbour, that's important. 

There is no guilt involved - it's up to each member of the human race to do the right thing (according to the best advice).  Don't worry what other Americans will do - do the right thing yourself.

I don't know what age or health you are in - but possibly like me you are below retirement age and reasonably fit.  Purely from a selfish point of view, although we may not be directly at risk ourselves, in a month's time if the hospitals are overflowing with frail people on life-support, guess what will happen if you or one of your children suffers a sudden acute health problem - road traffic accident, heart attack etc - do you think there will be any capacity to treat you?  Possibly not.....  Thousands of younger people will die because the healthcare system is saturated.

That is why social distancing and isolation are a possibly way of mitigating the worst outcome.

Jim

[Craig Lamson]

God To Ignore Quarantine And Continue Being Everywhere. (Babylon Bee satire...kind of)

https://babylonbee.com/news/god-breaking-quarantine-and-going-everywhere

[JoeKitchen]

Jim, you can hammer that point home all you want.  Trust me when I say there are many Americans that could case less about what the best and brightest minds think, and this will only increase if the death rate remains low.  I'm am taking that into account with how I think people will handle this thing.  Warmer weather without a large amount of deaths will bring people out. 

But anyway, here is some dire news from JP Morgan. 

Coronavirus will hit US economy harder than 2008 financial crisis: J.P. Morgan

"The firm sees the U.S. economy shrinking by 5.3 percent from January through March and 14 percent during the following three months. By comparison, the U.S. economy contracted by 7.2 percent during the fourth quarter of 2008, its worst of the global financial crisis, according to the St. Louis Fed.

Still, a sharp snap back to 6 percent growth in the third quarter of this year and 2.3 percent in the fourth leaves the long-term outlook less dire than both the worst year of the financial crisis and the earliest years for which data is available on the Great Depression."

Anyway, at this point, I'm just happy the perennials I ordered in January were still shipped this week and will arrive in time for planting season.  Judging by the grocery, having a means to produce your own food is a positive right now.

[Craig Lamson]

Coronavirus Ravages 7 Members of a Single Family, Killing 3
The matriarch of the large New Jersey family died Wednesday night without ever knowing that her two oldest children had died before her.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/nyregion/new-jersey-family-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

[LesPalenik]

Just finished listening to a podcast on the virus subject, and it ended with these words:

"The wise men will lay at home, and the fools will lay dead."

[Alan Klein]

In a nearby town about 5 miles from me.  It's getting too close.
Coronavirus Ravages 7 Members of a Single Family, Killing 3
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/nyregion/new-jersey-family-coronavirus.html

[LesPalenik]

In a nearby town about 5 miles from me.  It's getting too close.
Coronavirus Ravages 7 Members of a Single Family, Killing 3
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/nyregion/new-jersey-family-coronavirus.html

Alan, do you ever read the other posts? Like the one two entries above yours.

[chez]

I just read a piece about the mandatory lockdown in San Francisco.   Despite your predictions they are obeying the order quite faithfully.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/everything-out-our-control-san-francisco-eases-lockdown-n1163376

I simply don’t believe most American will behave like you suggest.  I would be very disappointed with our society and country if that were the case.  This is not going to be easy, in fact it will be quite painful and it’s going to test every person around the globe.  There has always been good and bad in mankind.  I for one hope that good prevails.

Societies are judged on how they deal with a crisis. Italians were shown housed up singing from their balconies. Time will tell how Americans will be judged.

[JoeKitchen]

As I have noted before, I also commonly post to an Habanos Forum that has many more active posters then the small amount here.  The range of professions, ages and status is also significantly larger too.  Many people here work by themselves, or in very small groups.  This is not the case on that forum. 

This is a topic of conversation there, albeit much more civil.  (The owner of the forum strictly prohibits any talk of USA politics with a two month ban if you break the rule, which I pretty much attribute to the greater level of civility.  Oddly enough, politics of any other country is allowed, showing exactly how different, or crazy, we are in the USA.) 

Although many here feel these measures will be followed, many there do not.  Many are posting about their co-workers continually making comments about how this is a big hoax, and choosing to come to work sick.  Now, if someone makes a big fuss, that person is sent home, but this does not negate the fact that they still have the mentality that it is not as serious as it is. 

Now this is not only due to very independent peopler, but also from many who just dont follow the news or care to.  Nearly everyone out there are not like those on this forum, spending much of their day staying up to date. 

This is why I feel this way.  By the time most take this seriously, it will be too late, just like in Italy.  I'd recommended those who are most vulnerable to make plans accordingly.