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Author Topic: Extreme weather  (Read 207209 times)

Peter McLennan

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2100 on: August 18, 2020, 03:32:29 pm »

Actually there has been a lot of hot wind blowing from the right lately.

Especially from Mr Kitchen, who pointedly avoids answering questions about his assertions.

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JoeKitchen

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2101 on: August 19, 2020, 08:53:13 am »

Especially from Mr Kitchen, who pointedly avoids answering questions about his assertions.

Believe it or not, I do have a life, and cant respond all the time.  I also sleep, crazy right? 

But anyway, Bjorn Lomborg has done a lot of great analysis on climate change and how almost every possible outcome pushed by the left leaning environmentalists is nothing but hysteria.  He also feels it is a great injustice we are doing for children, teaching them to live constant fear.  The reality of what would happen is significantly less than what the left says, and not something to lose our minds over. 

Also, the cost analysis shows it is not as dire as many say. 

Essentially the cost of climate change will be 3 to 4% of GDP in 80 years if we went on the projection we are right now.  If we took all of the mitigation efforts the left says we should, the cost to our current GDP would be anywhere from 16% to 32% every year for the foreseeable future.  We would be destroying ourselves if we did this, and developing nations more then likely would be thrust back into abject poverty.  This is because in order to come out of poverty, a country needs to acquire an energy source more powerful then wood, peat, dung, wind, etc., that is affordable to them.  Fossil fuels are the only resource that fits this bill, with nuclear, solar and modern wind being way too expensive. 

Sorry guys, but you on the left have lost me.  Your arguments are so asinine and call for action so draconian they will never happen or last more then an election cycle.  I'd much rather work with the right on environmental issues, who are much more pragmatic and sensible. 

Going back to the hurricane debate, the the UN Climate Panel found in its report last year (I believe) that hurricanes haven’t increased.  However, if you look at population expansion in the hurricane prone areas, the population has grown by a factor of 67.   That is reason for increased damage from hurricanes. 

This is almost always the case with much of the hysteria of climate change thrown to environmental events.  It  is largely explained by something completely different with much great logic. 
« Last Edit: August 19, 2020, 10:38:20 am by JoeKitchen »
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jeremyrh

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2102 on: August 19, 2020, 10:25:30 am »

the left leaning environmentalists

Quote
mitigation efforts the left says we should

Quote
you on the left have lost me. 

Zzzzzz....
« Last Edit: August 19, 2020, 10:32:11 am by jeremyrh »
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faberryman

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2103 on: August 19, 2020, 10:37:44 am »

But anyway, Bjorn Lomborg has done a lot of great analysis on climate change and how almost every possible outcome pushed by the left leaning environmentalists is nothing but hysteria.  He also feels it is a great injustice we are doing for children, teaching them to live constant fear.

Well, by all means, if Bjorn Lomborg has done a great analysis, let's just go with what he says.
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2104 on: August 19, 2020, 10:41:26 am »

Well, by all means, if Bjorn Lomborg has done a great analysis, let's just go with what he says.

Sometimes the one man against all others is right.  Churchill was derided over his views in Hitler. 

Anyway, let me say I do not blame the scientist, but the media (who benefit from sensationalizing things) and politicians who stand to gain from doing the same.  So often the scientist  put forth reasonable analysis with a range of projections, and the media and politicians just insist on taking the most dire (even if stated unlikely) and run with it.  That is what we see, and that is what people are insisting we make policy off of, not the work of scientists. 
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faberryman

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2105 on: August 19, 2020, 11:00:48 am »

Sometimes the one man against all others is right.  Churchill was derided over his views in Hitler. 

I guess it is impossible to have a discussion on the internet without bringing up Hitler.

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JoeKitchen

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2106 on: August 19, 2020, 11:57:26 am »

I guess it is impossible to have a discussion on the internet without bringing up Hitler.

But I have not called anyone Hitler, that's the difference. 

Listen, I heard about climate change in 6th grade and it kind of scared me, and I developed my overall sense of environmentalism on it.  Then, over the years, the predictions from the media and Democrats have gotten more and more dire and hysterical, while most never actually even coming close to happening with the rest being explained by very logical alternatives.  Alternativs like what I listed above about moving into hurricane prone areas.  Another being the Smokey Bear Effect is almost certainly the reason why we are having more wildfires then usually, but still less then what historically happened pre-1850s. 

The left has lost me.  These hysterical reactions I give no credence to what so ever. 
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Peter McLennan

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2107 on: August 19, 2020, 11:59:17 am »

Believe it or not, I do have a life, and cant respond all the time. 

This despite the fact that you've frequently posted loquaciously elsewhere in the interim.




Since you seem to enjoy wild-ass generalizations and unverifiable statements, here are a few more:

Doing nothing about climate change will make everything else irrelevant.

Fossil fuels are not the solution to our energy needs.  Fossil fuels are the problem.  The oil and gas industry recognized the issue of CO2 pollution back in the sixties.  They hid the research. 

Fossil fueled energy production at scale is clearly unsustainable.

Renewable energy sources are not "more expensive".  They're the only responsible alternative.

Uranium-sourced fission energy has no viable future.

Bill Gates and some others (TerraPower) were close to building a LFTR when their research project was blocked by a politician.  Anyone want to guess who?  Or why?

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JoeKitchen

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2108 on: August 19, 2020, 12:06:44 pm »

This despite the fact that you've frequently posted loquaciously elsewhere in the interim.




Since you seem to enjoy wild-ass generalizations and unverifiable statements, here are a few more:

Doing nothing about climate change will make everything else irrelevant.

Fossil fuels are not the solution to our energy needs.  Fossil fuels are the problem.  The oil and gas industry recognized the issue of CO2 pollution back in the sixties.  They hid the research. 

Fossil fueled energy production at scale is clearly unsustainable.

Renewable energy sources are not "more expensive".  They're the only responsible alternative.

Uranium-sourced fission energy has no viable future.

Bill Gates and some others (TerraPower) were close to building a LFTR when their research project was blocked by a politician.  Anyone want to guess who?  Or why?

Yawn.  Like I said before, the left's hysterical nature around this issue has pushed me, and so many more who started out very concerned about this issue at a younger age, away.  Continue the hysteria if you want; you're just going to push more away. 
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Peter McLennan

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2109 on: August 19, 2020, 12:09:29 pm »

Disprove my hysteria, please.  Point by point.
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faberryman

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2110 on: August 19, 2020, 12:51:14 pm »

But I have not called anyone Hitler, that's the difference.
The left has lost me.  These hysterical reactions I give no credence to what so ever.

Oh. Okay. I guess so.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2111 on: August 19, 2020, 01:36:15 pm »

Yawn.  Like I said before, the left's hysterical nature around this issue has pushed me, and so many more who started out very concerned about this issue at a younger age, away.  Continue the hysteria if you want; you're just going to push more away. 
Like they say. You catch more flies with honey than vinegar.

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2112 on: August 19, 2020, 02:45:45 pm »

Like they say. You catch more flies with honey than vinegar.

Or with a putrified apple.
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TechTalk

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2113 on: August 19, 2020, 07:13:38 pm »

hysteria sold by the left
constant hysteria is just not true

the left hysteria towards nuclear
nothing but hysteria.

the hysteria of climate change
more dire and hysterical,

These hysterical reactions
Yawn.  Like I said before, the left's hysterical nature

Continue the hysteria if you want

Yawn. I guess hysteria is in the eye of the beholder.
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jeremyrh

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2114 on: August 20, 2020, 03:23:17 am »

Yawn. I guess hysteria is in the eye of the beholder.

Maybe it leaked over from the Covid thread ...

Sensible chap. I can barely believe the hysteria I see represented on this thread.

Jeremy
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2115 on: August 20, 2020, 11:18:56 am »

So sea levels haven't risen because dams have been holding the water back. I wonder if they have anything to do why temperatures have not increased or as fast as they should have?

Climate change: Dams played key role in limiting sea level rise
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53836018

jeremyrh

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2116 on: August 20, 2020, 11:57:55 am »

So sea levels haven't risen because dams have been holding the water back. I wonder if they have anything to do why temperatures have not increased or as fast as they should have?
How fast should they have risen?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/20/greenland-ice-sheet-lost-a-record-1m-tonnes-of-ice-per-minute-in-2019
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2117 on: August 20, 2020, 01:45:01 pm »

So sea levels haven't risen because dams have been holding the water back. I wonder if they have anything to do why temperatures have not increased or as fast as they should have?

Climate change: Dams played key role in limiting sea level rise
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53836018

Gee, so maybe man IS affecting the climate.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2118 on: August 20, 2020, 04:23:03 pm »

Gee, so maybe man IS affecting the climate.
My second sentence was satire. 

Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2119 on: August 21, 2020, 05:15:16 am »

So sea levels haven't risen because dams have been holding the water back. I wonder if they have anything to do why temperatures have not increased or as fast as they should have?

Climate change: Dams played key role in limiting sea level rise
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53836018

A relevant quote from that article is as follows:

"The study finds that overall sea level has risen by approximately 1.56mm per year between 1900 and 2018.
Over this whole period, the authors believe that sea level would have been around 12% higher without the influence of dams and reservoirs."


So let's do a bit of calculation. 1.56mm per year over a century equals 156mm, which is a little over 6 inches. Without dams, the sea level rise would have been about 6.75 inches. Wow!!  ;D That is so terrifying, especially for those suffering from Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (OCD).  ;)

Let's consider the past history of sea level rise since the beginning of human civilization. Around 20,000 years ago, sea levels were about 130 metres lower than today. This period is known as the Last Glacial Maximum. Since then, sea levels have been rising at varying rates. However, 20,000 years is 200 centuries. Dividing 130 metres by 200 for an average rate of seal level rise per century, we get 650mm, which is far greater than the current rise of 156mm during the last century since industrialization.

From the following Wikipedia article:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Past_sea_level#:~:text=Sea%20level%20rise%20since%20the%20last%20glacial%20maximum,-Further%20information%3A%20Early&text=During%20deglaciation%20between%20about%2019,of%20the%20Antarctic%20ice%20sheet.

"At the onset of deglaciation about 19,000 years ago, a brief, at most 500-year long, glacio-eustatic event may have contributed as much as 10 m to sea level with an average rate of about 20 mm/yr. During the rest of the early Holocene, the rate of sea level rise varied from a low of about 6.0–9.9  mm/yr to as high as 30–60  mm/yr during brief periods of accelerated sea level rise."

The last time sea levels were higher than today, by maybe just a few metres, is thought to have been around 130,000 years ago. However, between 70,000 and 60,000 years ago there was a cold spell when sea levels were around 60 to 70 metres below current levels. This would have allowed the earliest Homo Sapiens to migrate out of Africa and the first Australian Aboriginal settlers to walk across from 'what is now' New Guinea to 'what is now' the northern coast of the island/continent of Australia, surrounded by sea.
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