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Author Topic: Extreme weather  (Read 207198 times)

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2120 on: August 21, 2020, 06:17:06 am »

Quote
Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2119 on: Today at 05:15:16 am »
...

Let's consider the past history of sea level rise since the beginning of human civilization. Around 20,000 years ago, sea levels were about 130 metres lower than today. This period is known as the Last Glacial Maximum. Since then, sea levels have been rising at varying rates. However, 20,000 years is 200 centuries. Dividing 130 metres by 200 for an average rate of seal level rise per century, we get 650mm, which is far greater than the current rise of 156mm during the last century since industrialization.

From the following Wikipedia article:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Past_sea_level#:~:text=Sea%20level%20rise%20since%20the%20last%20glacial%20maximum,-Further%20information%3A%20Early&text=During%20deglaciation%20between%20about%2019,of%20the%20Antarctic%20ice%20sheet.

"At the onset of deglaciation about 19,000 years ago, a brief, at most 500-year long, glacio-eustatic event may have contributed as much as 10 m to sea level with an average rate of about 20 mm/yr. During the rest of the early Holocene, the rate of sea level rise varied from a low of about 6.0–9.9  mm/yr to as high as 30–60  mm/yr during brief periods of accelerated sea level rise."

The last time sea levels were higher than today, by maybe just a few metres, is thought to have been around 130,000 years ago. However, between 70,000 and 60,000 years ago there was a cold spell when sea levels were around 60 to 70 metres below current levels. This would have allowed the earliest Homo Sapiens to migrate out of Africa and the first Australian Aboriginal settlers to walk across from 'what is now' New Guinea to 'what is now' the northern coast of the island/continent of Australia, surrounded by sea.
Maybe the warming going on now and still rising sea levels are a continuation of the end of the last glacial ice age.  In a few thousand years, experts will be warning us how we have to do something to prevent cooling and the fall of sea levels when the situation reverses again and we enter another Ice Age.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2020, 06:21:08 am by Alan Klein »
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dreed

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2121 on: August 21, 2020, 08:06:38 am »

Maybe the warming going on now and still rising sea levels are a continuation of the end of the last glacial ice age.  In a few thousand years, experts will be warning us how we have to do something to prevent cooling and the fall of sea levels when the situation reverses again and we enter another Ice Age.

The problem is not change, it is the rate of change.

If you put a cake in the oven at 150, it'll cook slowly. If you put it in the oven at 250, it'll cook too quickly and burn.

Over a sustained period of time, the sum output of human change in the biosphere is such that it is turning the oven up.

Unlike being able to turn the oven down in your kitchen and maybe save the cake, humans do not possess the technology to undo the damage that has been done to the biosphere.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2122 on: August 21, 2020, 08:14:15 am »

The problem is not change, it is the rate of change.

If you put a cake in the oven at 150, it'll cook slowly. If you put it in the oven at 250, it'll cook too quickly and burn.

Over a sustained period of time, the sum output of human change in the biosphere is such that it is turning the oven up.

Unlike being able to turn the oven down in your kitchen and maybe save the cake, humans do not possess the technology to undo the damage that has been done to the biosphere.
Damage and change are different results.  When beavers dam up a stream and flood a valley, that's a major change.  No one would consider it damage even though many individual animals and plants will be destroyed.  Man is part of nature as well.  Certainly many of his activities change the environment and even damage it or parts of it.  But calling adding a couple of degrees and a few feet of sea water damage rather than change is in the eye of the beholder. Nature will go on as it does in the beaver's flooded valley.

jeremyrh

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2123 on: August 21, 2020, 08:17:46 am »

Maybe the warming going on now and still rising sea levels are a continuation of the end of the last glacial ice age.  In a few thousand years, experts will be warning us how we have to do something to prevent cooling and the fall of sea levels when the situation reverses again and we enter another Ice Age.

Maybe you could publish a peer-reviewed paper describing the work you did to substantiate this theory?

Or maybe you could just continue making stuff up.
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Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2124 on: August 21, 2020, 08:25:52 am »

The problem is not change, it is the rate of change.

Didn't you read my post?

According to the geological evidence, the rate of change and the rate of sea level rise has been been much more rapid in the past. In some centuries, the rise has been as high as 4 to 6 metres in just one century, compared with a trivial 156mm during the last century of so-called, potentially, catastrophic warming due to CO2 emissions..

Who are the 'Climate Change Deniers'? Certainly not the skeptics. Must be the 'Alarmists'.  :(

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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2125 on: August 21, 2020, 08:26:01 am »

Maybe you could publish a peer-reviewed paper describing the work you did to substantiate this theory?

Or maybe you could just continue making stuff up.
There are many peer-reviewed studies that show ice ages repeat.  So it will start cooling off again. I'm buying extra down coats now to prepare for it.   

dreed

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2126 on: August 21, 2020, 08:42:00 am »

Certainly many of his activities change the environment and even damage it or parts of it.  But calling adding a couple of degrees and a few feet of sea water damage rather than change is in the eye of the beholder.

The impact of a couple of degrees warmer is a lot more than just s few feet of sea water.

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/What+is+Ocean+Acidification%3F

The rate of change is such that nature does not have the time it requires to adapt. Whereas where warming may take centuries or millenia to happen naturally, allowing animals to slowly adapt (Darwinism), the rate of change here is so quick as to prevent life from adapting.

This isn't like your bevar's dam, this is much worse. This is a feedback loop.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2127 on: August 21, 2020, 08:50:53 am »

The impact of a couple of degrees warmer is a lot more than just s few feet of sea water.

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/What+is+Ocean+Acidification%3F

The rate of change is such that nature does not have the time it requires to adapt. Whereas where warming may take centuries or millenia to happen naturally, allowing animals to slowly adapt (Darwinism), the rate of change here is so quick as to prevent life from adapting.

This isn't like your bevar's dam, this is much worse. This is a feedback loop.
There may be some displacements in certain areas.  But there have been no major baleful results yet. Nature adapts a lot quicker than you think.

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2128 on: August 21, 2020, 09:12:02 am »

There may be some displacements in certain areas. But there have been no major baleful results yet. Nature adapts a lot quicker than you think.

Very true! Because we are just on the beginning of the curve. Once the curve starts to steepen up, it will be too late to reverse the slope.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2129 on: August 21, 2020, 09:40:28 am »

Very true! Because we are just on the beginning of the curve. Once the curve starts to steepen up, it will be too late to reverse the slope.
So based on possible baleful results, that haven't happened and may happen in 50 years, we are to turn our economies topsy turvy and go into debt for trillions of dollars at a time when economies are failing due to a virus.  Where is the money support to come from? I've asked this question many times before here.  America for one is printing money at an amount greater than our GDP.  Can your Canada afford it?  Europe?  China who produces a third of the world's CO2? Should we spend that money on climate to reduce sea levels by 4 inches 50 years from now or provide unemployment insurance so people can eat today? 

It's become a political issue in the current American presidential campaigns.  Probably this should be discussed in the other thread.  But it also has to do with weather and climate control.  How do we afford all these things?  I was watching TV yesterday.  They had a show on that shows Germany is reducing the number of wind generators.  They're already replacing many of the existing one with "better" models too.  Where are they getting all this money what with Covid 19? I'll bet climate control plans will be put on hold by most countries.  When parliaments and legislatures have to decide whether to pay for health and food for people, programs for climate will take a back seat.  The climate doesn't vote.

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2130 on: August 21, 2020, 09:53:39 am »

Nature may be taking care of the reefs affected by warming,  Giant volcanic pumice fields floating across the ocean to reseed the Great Barrier Reef.

A Stupendously Huge Raft of Volcanic Rock Has Floated Across The Ocean to Australia
https://www.sciencealert.com/a-gigantic-raft-of-volcanic-rock-drifted-across-the-ocean-all-the-way-to-australia

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2131 on: August 23, 2020, 06:03:44 pm »

Our grandchildren will have to worry about solar panel toxic trash as well as rising seas 30 years from now.  What's needed now is Paris Accord II.

Solar Panels Are Starting to Die, Leaving Behind Toxic Trash
Photovoltaic panels are a boon for clean energy but are tricky to recycle. As the oldest ones expire, get ready for a solar e-waste glut.

https://www.wired.com/story/solar-panels-are-starting-to-die-leaving-behind-toxic-trash/

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2132 on: August 23, 2020, 06:41:33 pm »

Our grandchildren will have to worry about solar panel toxic trash as well as rising seas 30 years from now.  What's needed now is Paris Accord II.

Solar Panels Are Starting to Die, Leaving Behind Toxic Trash
Photovoltaic panels are a boon for clean energy but are tricky to recycle. As the oldest ones expire, get ready for a solar e-waste glut.

https://www.wired.com/story/solar-panels-are-starting-to-die-leaving-behind-toxic-trash/

Good thing to point out the future problems with recycling. Since we'll have to live with the solar panels, they should be designed for easy recycling.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2133 on: August 23, 2020, 07:10:01 pm »

They're already destroying wind generators in Germany as they upgrade to newer models.  What are they doing with all that crap?

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2134 on: August 23, 2020, 08:34:41 pm »

They're already destroying wind generators in Germany as they upgrade to newer models.  What are they doing with all that crap?

Recycling wind turbines is not easy, but it can be done.

Quote
They don't have to go into landfill, according to Don Lilly, chief executive of Global Fiberglass Solutions in Bellevue, Washington.
Mr Lilly has been transforming fibreglass composites into small pellets he calls EcoPoly.
The pellets can then be turned into injectable plastics, or highly waterproof boards that can be used in construction, he says.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51325101
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Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2135 on: August 23, 2020, 10:47:43 pm »

Recycling wind turbines is not easy, but it can be done.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51325101

Quote
They don't have to go into landfill, according to Don Lilly, chief executive of Global Fiberglass Solutions in Bellevue, Washington.
Mr Lilly has been transforming fibreglass composites into small pellets he calls EcoPoly.
The pellets can then be turned into injectable plastics, or highly waterproof boards that can be used in construction, he says.

We have the technology, or can develop the technology, to address most environmental problems and threats to our security. For example, as a result of a history of earthquakes occurring in Japan, the Japanese have developed the technology and put in place strict building regulations to ensure that modern buildings are very resistant to earthquakes. Older buildings are not so resistant.
https://www.realestate-tokyo.com/news/earthquake-resistance-of-buildings-in-japan/

In Northern Australia, a Category 4 Cyclone demolished the city of Darwin on Christmas Day 1974. The devastation was so great, it was initially though by some officials that there was no point in rebuilding the city, which is in an isolated part of Australia. Why not just abandon it, because the risk of another cyclone destroying the rebuilt city at some future date was quite high. Cyclones are a quite common occurrence in that part of Australia.

However, it was decided to rebuild the city with stricter and more appropriate building regulations to ensure resistance to a future cyclone. Technology makes that possible.

The major problem in addressing all these environmental issues, is not so much the lack of technology and know-how, but the immediate cost, in the present, of applying that known technology and enforcing the application and management of that technology through government regulation and constant monitoring to ensure the regulations are adhered to.

This problem is widespread and applies to both the fossil fuels industries and the renewable energy industries.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2136 on: August 23, 2020, 11:20:07 pm »

So first we force free people to buy more expensive green energy generators.  Then we force these formerly free people to spend more money disposing of the green generators. How do we buy back our freedom? How much will that cost?

Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2137 on: August 24, 2020, 06:31:35 am »

So first we force free people to buy more expensive green energy generators.  Then we force these formerly free people to spend more money disposing of the green generators. How do we buy back our freedom? How much will that cost?

Impossible to calculate the cost accurately because there are so many related issues which are complex and uncertain.
For example, if we did an energy-cost comparison between the latest Ultra-Supercritical coal-fired power station, which included the use of state-of-the-art emission controls which of course adds to the cost, and the latest Solar Panel system with the latest battery storage to ensure there's no interruption of supply, the energy from the coal-fired power station would probably be significantly cheaper, excluding the cost of removing all emissions of CO2 which is not a pollutant and is beneficial for plant growth.

However, to get a more accurate over all cost, we have to consider the related costs of the mining of coal, such as the health effects on people living in the area if the mine is open-cut, the health effects on the miners underground, the effects on agriculture when fertile areas suitable for growing crops are used for mining coal, and the cost of rehabilitating the environment after the coal mining ceases.

If we add these related costs, the energy from coal would not be cheaper. However, if we also add the related costs to the production of renewable energy, which of course we should, then the energy from coal could still be cheaper. The cost of recycling windmills and solar panels is one of those costs which is not included in the energy price. Another is the cost of depriving farmers of fertile land to grow crops, by covering the ground with solar panels. Another is the degradation of the environment due to the mining of Lithium and other metals necessary for batteries.

"The Chilean Atacama region has been exploited for its rich mineral deposits, including copper, gold, silver, molybdenum and lithium. On one hand, lithium mining brings revenues to the State coffer and profits for national and foreign companies. On the other hand, these economic benefits have come with social and environmental costs. The mining industry is extracting a large amount of groundwater in one of the driest desert regions in the world. As the mining sites overlap with nature conservation areas, mining activities have been responsible for ecosystem degradation. The process of forced migration of populations from villages and the abandonment of ancestral settlements has been precipitated by water scarcity and an increasingly erratic water supply."

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aae9b1
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2138 on: August 24, 2020, 08:54:38 am »

So first we force free people to buy more expensive green energy generators.  Then we force these formerly free people to spend more money disposing of the green generators. How do we buy back our freedom? How much will that cost?

It may be cheaper than the alternative.

It doesn't mean anything that the way it was done in the past is cheaper. Everything technology becomes cheaper as it matures and costs are amortized over longer time frames. What else is new.
« Last Edit: August 24, 2020, 09:47:58 am by Robert Roaldi »
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Peter McLennan

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2139 on: August 24, 2020, 11:09:35 am »

One thing I've learned on this forum is that Ray just absolutely LOVES using the word "Ultra-Supercritical".
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