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Author Topic: Extreme weather  (Read 111689 times)

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #880 on: October 11, 2019, 06:22:20 am »

According to a study presented by the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) in Barcelona on Thursday, temperatures in the Mediterranean region have so far risen by 1.5 degrees compared to the pre-industrial era. The global temperature increase averaged 1.1 degrees over the same period. More than 600 scientists from 35 countries have analyzed data on the climate in the Mediterranean for the study. The project is under the umbrella of the UfM and the United Nations Environment Program UNEP. The rise in temperature is currently advancing there 20 percent faster than the global average.

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Over the past 25 years the rate of increase in sea surface temperature in all European seas has been about 10 times faster than the average rate of increase during the past century. In five European seas the warming occurs even more rapidly. In the North and Baltic Seas temperature rose five to six times faster than the global average over the past 25 years, and three times faster in the Black and Mediterranean Seas.

https://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/coast_sea/sea-surface-temperature/rising-temp
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Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #881 on: October 11, 2019, 07:56:02 am »

According to a study presented by the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) in Barcelona on Thursday, temperatures in the Mediterranean region have so far risen by 1.5 degrees compared to the pre-industrial era. The global temperature increase averaged 1.1 degrees over the same period. More than 600 scientists from 35 countries have analyzed data on the climate in the Mediterranean for the study. The project is under the umbrella of the UfM and the United Nations Environment Program UNEP. The rise in temperature is currently advancing there 20 percent faster than the global average.

https://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/coast_sea/sea-surface-temperature/rising-temp

Les,
You should know by now that global warming is not uniform. Some areas are warming greater than average, and other areas are warming less than average. Some areas are actually cooling. Check out the following article. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/05/140504133207.htm

"New research by a team of Florida State University scientists shows the first detailed look at global land surface warming trends over the last 100 years, illustrating precisely when and where different areas of the world started to warm up or cool down.

For example, from about 1910 to 1980, while the rest of the world was warming up, some areas south of the equator -- near the Andes -- were actually cooling down, and then had no change at all until the mid 1990s. Other areas near and south of the equator didn't see significant changes comparable to the rest of the world at all."

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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #882 on: October 11, 2019, 08:28:47 am »

Les,
You should know by now that global warming is not uniform. Some areas are warming greater than average, and other areas are warming less than average. Some areas are actually cooling. Check out the following article. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/05/140504133207.htm

"New research by a team of Florida State University scientists shows the first detailed look at global land surface warming trends over the last 100 years, illustrating precisely when and where different areas of the world started to warm up or cool down.

For example, from about 1910 to 1980, while the rest of the world was warming up, some areas south of the equator -- near the Andes -- were actually cooling down, and then had no change at all until the mid 1990s. Other areas near and south of the equator didn't see significant changes comparable to the rest of the world at all."


Yes, Ray, I know that the global warming is not uniform. That's why it is even more alarming. Some areas may warm up just by one degree, whereas others by 2-3 degrees, or even more. And that would be noticeable and accompanied by serious consequences, such as changed air streams, droughts, fires, insect plaques, invasive plants explosions, and violent storms.
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Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #883 on: October 11, 2019, 09:15:58 am »

Yes, Ray, I know that the global warming is not uniform. That's why it is even more alarming. Some areas may warm up just by one degree, whereas others by 2-3 degrees, or even more. And that would be noticeable and accompanied by serious consequences, such as changed air streams, droughts, fires, insect plaques, invasive plants explosions, and violent storms.

Or increased precipitation and warmth, ideal for a different type of food crop to flourish. The problems is, people tend to be fixed in their ways and are unwilling to adapt to changing circumstances.
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jeremyrh

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #884 on: October 11, 2019, 09:20:53 am »

The problems is, people tend to be fixed in their ways and are unwilling to adapt to changing circumstances.

Unfortunately changing circumstances may suggest that people move to different countries to take advantage of new cultivation opportunities.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #885 on: October 11, 2019, 09:24:04 am »

I could adapt easily to warmer winters, but would have problems with stronger and more frequent summer heat waves.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #886 on: October 11, 2019, 11:49:02 am »

I could adapt easily to warmer winters, but would have problems with stronger and more frequent summer heat waves.

Indeed. And since that growing requirement for additional cooling can practically *) only be achieved by using more electricity, the need will also increase. It should ideally be generated with renewable resources. Heating has multiple possible sources from which it can be generated, including the polluting burning of fossil fuel.

*) There are other possibilities to achieve cooling ...
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #887 on: October 11, 2019, 03:08:15 pm »

Unfortunately changing circumstances may suggest that people move to different countries to take advantage of new cultivation opportunities.
Climate change and shifting weather patterns have destroyed civilizations in the past causing people to move.  Of course, these were natural.  We may be faced with serious problems in some areas that we'll have to deal with.  But droughts and other natural catastrophes have also always been with us.  Spitting into the wind has always been a problem. 

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #888 on: October 11, 2019, 03:12:07 pm »

Indeed. And since that growing requirement for additional cooling can practically *) only be achieved by using more electricity, the need will also increase. It should ideally be generated with renewable resources. Heating has multiple possible sources from which it can be generated, including the polluting burning of fossil fuel.

*) There are other possibilities to achieve cooling ...
Warmer winters will decrease the amount of fossil fuel use during the cold season.  Also, most people heat while most people don;t air condition.  So the net benefit should be less burning of fossil fuel as temperatures go up.  I haven;t googles this so it could be different.   Would someone want to prove me wrong,  or right?   

Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #889 on: October 11, 2019, 08:01:02 pm »

Here's a fascinating article which provides links to the actual research papers which can be viewed or downloaded free. I'm sure Bart will be very pleased.  ;)

The over all view in these papers is that increased temperatures tend to reduce the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, and that an average cooling of the climate is likely to be more dangerous for mankind.

https://principia-scientific.org/25-new-papers-prove-remarkably-stable-modern-climate/
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #890 on: October 13, 2019, 05:34:42 am »

Here's a fascinating article which provides links to the actual research papers which can be viewed or downloaded free. I'm sure Bart will be very pleased.  ;)

Very nice, but everybody, not just me, should welcome links to the original articles. That does not yet say that these papers are peer reviewed or even correct, but it does allow one to judge if the summaries/conclusions that are usually posted on websites are somewhat accurate or missing the point (entirely).

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The over all view in these papers is that increased temperatures tend to reduce the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, and that an average cooling of the climate is likely to be more dangerous for mankind.

https://principia-scientific.org/25-new-papers-prove-remarkably-stable-modern-climate/

Too bad, the website you like to link to is known to be biased (see attached), so it is hard to judge how representative these papers are. That is, 25 cherry-picked papers may be kind of insignificant amongst hundreds of independent papers that suggest different or opposing conclusions. That makes your post more relevant for the thread on the overrepresentation of biased media than this thread.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2019, 05:38:13 am by Bart_van_der_Wolf »
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #891 on: October 13, 2019, 08:02:33 am »

Many parts of the eastern US from Pennsylvania down to Georgia are in a drought situation.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/10/11/drought-expands-intensifies-over-dc-area/  has some good maps of the situation.  In our own area of Maryland we have had virtually no rain at all since the first week of September.  The state of Virginia is officially under a drought watch and controls on water use are likely if there is no rain in the near future. 

From personal observation, I can guarantee that this is not fake news.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #892 on: October 13, 2019, 08:41:22 am »

Extreme disasters costing more but killing fewer
While the average cost isn't changing much, the most costly disasters are rising.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/10/extreme-disasters-costing-more-but-killing-fewer/

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With the warming climate, we should expect a change in weather-related disasters. Fewer cold snaps and stronger heat waves are the obvious issues. But we should also see more intense storms, as a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor, while droughts may intensify in areas where rain was already sparse as the heat bakes water out of the soil.

All that suggests the costs of weather disasters will be different—but not necessarily better or worse. Researchers who have tried to study the topic have come up with very mixed results: some show an upward trend in the cost of natural disasters, while others fiercely dispute these analyses. Now, a new study suggests a possible reason for this: while the average damage caused by disasters is staying relatively stable, the most extreme events are increasing rapidly. But in a small bit of consolation, the human costs may be dropping.

A link to the original article is available at the end of the ArsTechnica article.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2019, 08:51:26 am by Bart_van_der_Wolf »
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #893 on: October 13, 2019, 08:47:25 am »

Warmer winters will decrease the amount of fossil fuel use during the cold season.  Also, most people heat while most people don;t air condition.  So the net benefit should be less burning of fossil fuel as temperatures go up.

Depends on how you generate power for the airco's ...
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #894 on: October 13, 2019, 09:53:16 am »

Depends on how you generate power for the airco's ...

Regardless, very few people air condition in the world in comparison to those who need to heat. So warmer winters will reduce the amount of energy required which is still 95%+ by fossil fuels. 

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #895 on: October 13, 2019, 09:57:28 am »

Many parts of the eastern US from Pennsylvania down to Georgia are in a drought situation.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/10/11/drought-expands-intensifies-over-dc-area/  has some good maps of the situation.  In our own area of Maryland we have had virtually no rain at all since the first week of September.  The state of Virginia is officially under a drought watch and controls on water use are likely if there is no rain in the near future. 

From personal observation, I can guarantee that this is not fake news.
As global warming adherents keep reminding us, local weather patterns have nothing to do with climate change.  Last year we had the wettest weather in recorded history here in New Jersey which is a stone's throw away from Virginia and Maryland.  It's still raining a lot this year here.  (Edit add:  and Pennsylvania borders New Jersey.)

Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #896 on: October 13, 2019, 10:15:22 am »

Too bad, the website you like to link to is known to be biased (see attached), so it is hard to judge how representative these papers are. That is, 25 cherry-picked papers may be kind of insignificant amongst hundreds of independent papers that suggest different or opposing conclusions. That makes your post more relevant for the thread on the over-representation of biased media than this thread.

Bart,
I suspected your response would be to shoot the messenger rather than the message. It seems I was right.  :D

If 25 cherry-picked papers are insignificant amongst hundreds of others with opposing conclusions, then surely the post would be more relevant for a thread on the under-representation of biased media.  :D

By the way, a few of these research papers linked in the article are behind a pay-wall, but many are not. Here's a few in pdf format, if you're interested.

https://www.clim-past.net/12/1389/2016/cp-12-1389-2016.pdf
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/2016GL068172
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/2015GL064929
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2015.0345
https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/20/1703/2016/hess-20-1703-2016.pdf
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #897 on: October 13, 2019, 07:30:21 pm »

As global warming adherents keep reminding us, local weather patterns have nothing to do with climate change.

That's not correct.

1. It's unclear what a global warming adherent is, one merely needs to objectively compare the official temperature records.
    Temperatures have been rising, more in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere. That's an objective observation.
2. Weather patterns are changing due to the warming. There are more weather extremes, locally.

However, an extreme weather event on its own does not equal climate change.

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Last year we had the wettest weather in recorded history here in New Jersey which is a stone's throw away from Virginia and Maryland.  It's still raining a lot this year here.  (Edit add:  and Pennsylvania borders New Jersey.)

One would need to investigate if there is a multi-decadal trend(change) before it can be attributed to climate change.
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Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #898 on: October 13, 2019, 08:44:07 pm »

Weather patterns are changing due to the warming. There are more weather extremes, locally.

There might be more weather extremes in some locations, over a given period of time, but also a decrease in extreme weather events in other locations over the same period of time.

Whether or not there has been a net increase in extreme weather events globally, during the past 50 years or more, cannot be determined with any confidence. Even the IPCC admits this, as I've mentioned before.

However, an increase in heat waves and precipitation events might be the exception. It is reasonable to deduce that any increase in heat waves will be exaggerated by the Urban Heat Island effect, just as it's reasonable to deduce that increased rainfall will result from more evaporation which will occur during any warming period, whatever the cause of the warming.

This uncertainty about any global increase in extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts and hurricanes (or typhoons or cyclones depending on the location), seems to be an 'inconvenient truth' for the alarmists.

The IPCC has also made the very valid point that it's very difficult to attribute any specific, extreme weather event to a human cause, such as CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.

Despite these statements from the so-called great authority on climate matters, the IPCC, once the 'meme' pervades the consciousness of the general public, that extreme weather events are increasing as a result of mankind's CO2 emissions, every extreme weather event appears as yet another example of the effects of rising CO2 levels, and tends to be reported as such in the media, thus reinforcing the meme.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #899 on: October 14, 2019, 08:41:55 pm »

Like I said, population is the cause of too much pollution and CO2.  So now it's had to happen.  People calling for no children.  It's sick out there and getting sicker. 
https://www.vox.com/2019/3/11/18256166/climate-change-having-kids
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