I just cancelled our evacuation tickets, as the path has changed in the last 24 hours. You guys can't predict a hurricane path one day in advance, and yet want us to believe you are capable of predicting a much more complex system, like climate, 50 years from now!?
You're acting silly (I sincerely hope you do not mean what you just said). Because it has already been explained before.
In another thread that you participated in, Bernard Languillier worded it already more concisely than I could:
https://forum.luminous-landscape.com/index.php?topic=131708.msg1125812#msg1125812It's so simple that it's amazing that you don't get it (I hope you're not serious, as usual, even without a smiley).
I feel a bit embarrassed that I need to explain such simple concepts in more detail to you, but here it goes.
BTW, I also hope you don't think that other forum members are too stupid to notice.
Attached, I've added a chart (Russ, eat your heart out
) that shows the actual
average daily temperature (!, daily fluctuations can be approx. +/- 10°C larger than the average during summertime, less at wintertime) as measured by a number of Air Quality measuring stations that I've installed at different locations with several other citizens across my home town. We're actually measuring Particulate Matter levels to complement and validate the models based on the official National Reference Stations, but as a by-product of calibrating those sensors, we also acquire Temperatures.
It should be obvious, also (even?) to you, that winter temperatures are lower than summer temperatures. However, they do fluctuate around a mean value (the mean value depends on the time period one chooses, duh). And in this case, although for a climate trend we'd need a much longer (11 year or multi-decadal) period than 1 year, the temperature at the same day in the year went from 17.6 -> 21.5°C (yes we experienced another relatively hot summer).
So yes, it can be easier and more accurate to predict/model a long term trend accurately than a short term exact value, duh.