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Author Topic: Extreme weather  (Read 50173 times)

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #700 on: August 31, 2019, 01:06:10 pm »

Why something other?

We can measure the temperature (the conditions are standardized by the WMO), air-temperature on land, water-temperature at sea, air-temperature in the troposphere, and do that systematically in many places for a long period of time. That shows that they are generally rising globally, more so in the Northern hemisphere (relatively more land-mass) than the Southern hemisphere (relatively more water-mass).

We can measure the Sun's energy as it reaches the earth's surface, and we can measure the reflected energy back into space. The reflected energy has longer wavelengths than the incoming energy.

This longer wavelength of reflected energy is partly absorbed by the CO2 molecules in the air which was more transparent for the shorter wavelengths that allowed them to reach the earth's surface in the first place.

By colliding with other molecules in the air, the atmosphere heats up. Usually more at lower altitudes and less at higher altitudes on average.

The warmer atmosphere can contain more water-vapor which also traps reflected energy but more at different wavelengths than CO2 does. They kind of complement each other.

I could go on with more examples of individually testable phenomena that add to the body of Scientific knowledge.

Hope that helps.

Cheers,
Bart
The only true test is did the climate change?  Did it get warmer?  Since we won;t know that for decades maybe centuries or millennia, you're only describing short term inconclusive data.   

RSL

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #701 on: August 31, 2019, 01:32:17 pm »

Why something other?

We can measure the temperature (the conditions are standardized by the WMO), air-temperature on land, water-temperature at sea, air-temperature in the troposphere, and do that systematically in many places for a long period of time. That shows that they are generally rising globally, more so in the Northern hemisphere (relatively more land-mass) than the Southern hemisphere (relatively more water-mass).

We can measure the Sun's energy as it reaches the earth's surface, and we can measure the reflected energy back into space. The reflected energy has longer wavelengths than the incoming energy.

This longer wavelength of reflected energy is partly absorbed by the CO2 molecules in the air which was more transparent for the shorter wavelengths that allowed them to reach the earth's surface in the first place.

By colliding with other molecules in the air, the atmosphere heats up. Usually more at lower altitudes and less at higher altitudes on average.

The warmer atmosphere can contain more water-vapor which also traps reflected energy but more at different wavelengths than CO2 does. They kind of complement each other.

I could go on with more examples of individually testable phenomena that add to the body of Scientific knowledge.

Hope that helps.

Cheers,
Bart

Absolutely, Bart. And the sun rises in the morning and sets  at night. That's another testable phenomenon, added to "the body of scientific knowledge." So what? What we're after is cause and effect, and in climate "science" there are no testable phenomena that can conclusively make a connection between CO2 emissions and climate.
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jeremyrh

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #702 on: August 31, 2019, 01:43:50 pm »

Absolutely, Bart. And the sun rises in the morning and sets  at night. That's another testable phenomenon, added to "the body of scientific knowledge." So what? What we're after is cause and effect, and in climate "science" there are no testable phenomena that can conclusively make a connection between CO2 emissions and climate.

NASA disagree. Hmm...  who seems more reliable ... ?

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/climate.nasa.gov/evidence.amp
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #703 on: August 31, 2019, 02:06:06 pm »

Absolutely, Bart. And the sun rises in the morning and sets  at night.

Only if you do not travel at the same angular speed in the same direction as the sun appears 1) to travel.

1) Science tells us that it's the rotation of the earth that's causing it, not the rotation of the sun around the earth.

Cheers,
Bart
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #704 on: August 31, 2019, 02:51:14 pm »

And, with hurricane Dorian developing, here is some info about the connection between Hurricanes and Global Warming:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pa8duiMiS0

It is a video posted 9 years ago, but I think that not much has changed in the Scientific consensus that existed then. If it has, I'm all ears.

Cheers,
Bart
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RSL

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #705 on: August 31, 2019, 02:57:49 pm »

Ah yes, a "scientific consensus." Well, we can be sure it's true then if there's a "scientific consensus." The term "scientific consensus" is an oxymoron.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #706 on: August 31, 2019, 05:30:49 pm »

And, with hurricane Dorian developing, here is some info about the connection between Hurricanes and Global Warming:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pa8duiMiS0

It is a video posted 9 years ago, but I think that not much has changed in the Scientific consensus that existed then. If it has, I'm all ears.

Cheers,
Bart

Bart The video link you posted gives a lecture on how hurricanes ARE NOT increasing.  I think you cherry picked the wrong video that supports my side.  :)

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #707 on: August 31, 2019, 05:56:28 pm »

Bart The video link you posted gives a lecture on how hurricanes ARE NOT increasing.  I think you cherry picked the wrong video that supports my side.  :)

Apparently it's not the quantity, it's the 'quality'. Unless of course Science got it all wrong.

As I said, it also depends on the water temperature how much energy and watervapor these beasts contain, and how slow they move when dumping the precipitation. In the case of Florida, it also matters how high the tide is if/when it makes landfall. If it makes landfall in Florida, it could be at high tide.

I sympathize with the people of the Bahama's, Florida, and the Carolina's. It's not a joke to lose your home, or worse still.

Cheers,
Bart
« Last Edit: August 31, 2019, 06:02:46 pm by Bart_van_der_Wolf »
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #708 on: August 31, 2019, 06:16:10 pm »

... I sympathize with the people of the Bahama's, Florida, and the Carolina's...

I just cancelled our evacuation tickets, as the path has changed in the last 24 hours. You guys can't predict a hurricane path one day in advance, and yet want us to believe you are capable of predicting a much more complex system, like climate, 50 years from now!?

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #709 on: August 31, 2019, 07:35:06 pm »

I just cancelled our evacuation tickets, as the path has changed in the last 24 hours. You guys can't predict a hurricane path one day in advance, and yet want us to believe you are capable of predicting a much more complex system, like climate, 50 years from now!?

I have never seen an evacuation ticket. What does that buy you?

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #710 on: August 31, 2019, 07:37:02 pm »

I have never seen an evacuation ticket. What does that buy you?

A trip to Dominican Republic ;)

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #711 on: August 31, 2019, 07:48:20 pm »

Stay safe wherever you are.

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #712 on: August 31, 2019, 10:38:13 pm »

I just cancelled our evacuation tickets, as the path has changed in the last 24 hours. You guys can't predict a hurricane path one day in advance, and yet want us to believe you are capable of predicting a much more complex system, like climate, 50 years from now!?

You're acting silly (I sincerely hope you do not mean what you just said). Because it has already been explained before.

In another thread that you participated in, Bernard Languillier worded it already more concisely than I could:
https://forum.luminous-landscape.com/index.php?topic=131708.msg1125812#msg1125812

It's so simple that it's amazing that you don't get it (I hope you're not serious, as usual, even without a smiley).

I feel a bit embarrassed that I need to explain such simple concepts in more detail to you, but here it goes.
BTW, I also hope you don't think that other forum members are too stupid to notice.

Attached, I've added a chart (Russ, eat your heart out ;D) that shows the actual average daily temperature (!, daily fluctuations can be approx. +/- 10C larger than the average during summertime, less at wintertime) as measured by a number of Air Quality measuring stations that I've installed at different locations with several other citizens across my home town. We're actually measuring Particulate Matter levels to complement and validate the models based on the official National Reference Stations, but as a by-product of calibrating those sensors, we also acquire Temperatures.

It should be obvious, also (even?) to you, that winter temperatures are lower than summer temperatures. However, they do fluctuate around a mean value (the mean value depends on the time period one chooses, duh). And in this case, although for a climate trend we'd need a much longer (11 year or multi-decadal) period than 1 year, the temperature at the same day in the year went from 17.6 -> 21.5C (yes we experienced another relatively hot summer).

So yes, it can be easier and more accurate to predict/model a long term trend accurately than a short term exact value, duh.
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #713 on: August 31, 2019, 11:43:49 pm »

Both you and Bernard are playing with historic, actual data. Where is the predictive part?

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #714 on: September 01, 2019, 12:02:08 am »

Both, the weather and stock market forecasting gurus use historic data for modeling and prediction of future trends.
Neither camp gets it quite right.

Greenland's Massive Ice Melt Wasn't Supposed To Happen Until 2070

Quote
Last week, the world received yet another stark reminder of what's yet to come as temperatures at the highest point of the Greenland ice sheet rose above freezing and melted the snow there for the first time since July 2012 and perhaps only the third time in the last 700 years. The glacier-covered island lost 12.5 billion tons of ice in one day.

As climate scientist Martin Stendel points out, that's enough to cover all of Florida with almost five inches of water. Or, in metric units, enough to cover Germany with almost 7cm of water. Or Denmark with half a meter of water.

The ice sheet that covers Greenland is about the same size as the state of Alaska and contains enough ice to raise sea level across the globe by more than 20 feet. Every year, Greenland gains ice during the winter from the accumulation of compacted snow and then during the summer months, it loses ice from melt water and icebergs that calve into the ocean.

A particularly warm, dry spring this year left only a thin covering of snow over exposed glacial ice. The planet has just had it's warmest June on record, followed by the warmest July on record, consequently ice everywhere has been melting, from the glaciers of Greenland to the Himalayas.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottsnowden/2019/08/16/greenlands-massive-ice-melt-wasnt-supposed-to-happen-until-2070/#7f9e68e64894

« Last Edit: September 01, 2019, 05:58:33 am by LesPalenik »
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Martin Kristiansen

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #715 on: September 01, 2019, 02:20:41 am »

Good to see Florida will  be spared the worst of the hurricanes destructive power. I have an ex girlfriend living on Hilton Head and I hope she is going to be OK. Seems thats where Dorian is now headed.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #716 on: September 01, 2019, 07:19:28 am »

Both you and Bernard are playing with historic, actual data. Where is the predictive part?

Do you really not get it?

We can forecast that in the summer it will be warmer than during the winter, and we can give a range of probability around the modeled temperature. The expected temperature and range differ by location, so a generic forecast for a larger region will be less specific for random locations.

Trying to forecast it months ahead for a specific day comes with a wider range of uncertainty because e.g. daily variations in cloud-cover create a different temperature range around the average both during the day and the night. A week ahead it becomes more likely that we use the correct amount and type of cloud-cover in our models, so the forecast is likely to be closer to the actual temperature, but probably still somewhere in the range that was given months ago.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #717 on: September 01, 2019, 11:28:03 am »

Both you and Bernard are playing with historic, actual data. Where is the predictive part?
+1

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #718 on: September 01, 2019, 12:44:12 pm »

Both, the weather and stock market forecasting gurus use historic data for modeling and prediction of future trends.
Neither camp gets it quite right.

Greenland's Massive Ice Melt Wasn't Supposed To Happen Until 2070

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottsnowden/2019/08/16/greenlands-massive-ice-melt-wasnt-supposed-to-happen-until-2070/#7f9e68e64894



Three or four weeks ago I hit an 18-1 long shot at the race track.  It paid $96 back to me on my $5 bet.  Of course, the odds of the horse winning was not 18-1.  It was whatever they were and no one really knows that.  Maybe only the horses knew. :)  The only thing the 18 - 1 represents, is what the pari mutuel tote system arrived at based on actual bets.  The final payoff odds are based on actual bets made on each of the horses.  Had people bet more money on the winning horse, the "winning" odds would have gone down.  But the odds of the horse winning would have remained the same.  So why mention all this?

The odds that the earth is warming up and whether it will happen never change.  It is what it is; we don;t really know those odds anymore than we know what the odds are on each horse winning in that race.  What changes are people's beliefs as to the odds.  So if 97% of the people think it's going to get hot, the odds seem more likely. But in truth, it doesn;t matter what people believe.  It will be based on what actually is and those factors are often unknown or cannot be allocated correctly in the algorithms being used.  That's why economist predictions are wrong, as are climatologists, and horse betters.

Anyway, this is my new theory just developed this morning. It's open for adjustments and fine tuning.  :)

jeremyrh

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #719 on: September 01, 2019, 01:43:41 pm »


The odds that the earth is warming up and whether it will happen never change.  It is what it is; we don;t really know those odds anymore than we know what the odds are on each horse winning in that race.  What changes are people's beliefs as to the odds.  So if 97% of the people think it's going to get hot, the odds seem more likely. But in truth, it doesn;t matter what people believe.  It will be based on what actually is and those factors are often unknown or cannot be allocated correctly in the algorithms being used.  That's why economist predictions are wrong, as are climatologists, and horse betters.

Anyway, this is my new theory just developed this morning. It's open for adjustments and fine tuning.  :)

Weird use of probabilities. The chance of global warming in the case we do nothing is why it is. What changes is the chance that we accurately assess that probability and also the chance that we can influence the chance of global warming if we take action. The 97% (or whatever yuur favourite number is) is kit the chance of GW, it's the likelihood that we currently correctly assess the likelihood of GW.

I recommend you think of another theory :-)
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