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Author Topic: Extreme weather  (Read 54412 times)

jeremyrh

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #600 on: August 10, 2019, 03:35:57 pm »

They're all in  the same choir.

Same choir that faked the Moon landings, I suppose. Really - if you imagine that 97% of the world's climate scientists are all in on a conspiracy, you need to check your meds.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #601 on: August 10, 2019, 04:50:19 pm »

Les, if you look at the canoe picture at the dock that I posted, the seat for it is way in the back where I sat.  Without another canoeist up front, the whole canoe tilts up making it that more difficult to control.  A little wind and the canoe starts to spin.  I can see why yours controls better.

Right! That's why if you paddle solo a tandem canoe, it's better to switch the seats, and sit in the bow seat facing the middle of the canoe. Even so, the now new bow would ride higher, but not quite as high as if you were sitting on the stern seat. Even better is to kneel in the middle, or slightly behind the middle. That's in no wind or with just a slight wind.
To paddle solo in windy conditions, it's best to put your weight slightly forward, so that the bow rides lower than the stern. This way the wind hits the back half of the canoe which makes it easier to keep the boat on its course.
 
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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #602 on: August 10, 2019, 05:01:44 pm »

Paddling a canoe around a lake is not rocket science.

That's what one would think.
But I've seen quite a few furiously paddling canoeists on a zig zag course and some not so funny upsets in even relatively small waves or when pinned in wind against a rock. 
Once at Algonquin Park canoe rental dock, I saw a pair who boarded the canoe in the opposite direction, and the man sitting in the stern seat facing his end of the canoe couldn't figure out where to put his feet. Fortunately, the were straightened out before paddling out into the lake.
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faberryman

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #603 on: August 10, 2019, 05:04:12 pm »

That's what one would think.
But I've seen quite a few furiously paddling canoeists on a zig zag course and some not so funny upsets in even relatively small waves or when pinned in wind against a rock. 
Once at Algonquin Park canoe rental dock, I saw a pair who boarded the canoe in the opposite direction, and the man sitting in the stern seat facing his end of the canoe couldn't figure out where to put his feet. Fortunately, the were straightened out before paddling out into the lake.
I recognize that there is a bell curve in intelligence.

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #604 on: August 10, 2019, 05:33:04 pm »

Right! That's why if you paddle solo a tandem canoe, it's better to switch the seats, and sit in the bow seat facing the middle of the canoe. Even so, the now new bow would ride higher, but not quite as high as if you were sitting on the stern seat. Even better is to kneel in the middle, or slightly behind the middle. That's in no wind or with just a slight wind.
To paddle solo in windy conditions, it's best to put your weight slightly forward, so that the bow rides lower than the stern. This way the wind hits the back half of the canoe which makes it easier to keep the boat on its course.
 
Next time i'l make my wife join me and have her row. 😀

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #605 on: August 10, 2019, 05:48:34 pm »

Same choir that faked the Moon landings, I suppose. Really - if you imagine that 97% of the world's climate scientists are all in on a conspiracy, you need to check your meds.
When the environment becomes religious, it's amazing how many zealots you could find.

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #606 on: August 10, 2019, 09:38:06 pm »

Here's an article to help people put their money where their mouth is. :)
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/08/10/how-to-invest-in-renewable-energy-stocks.aspx

Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #607 on: August 12, 2019, 02:59:04 am »

Same choir that faked the Moon landings, I suppose. Really - if you imagine that 97% of the world's climate scientists are all in on a conspiracy, you need to check your meds.

Good point!  ;)

I suspect that less than 50% of them are engaged in a conspiracy with the media and politics. Most climate scientists probably understand that climate changes are too complex to attribute a single cause to such changes, such as an increase in CO2 levels, although they will tend to remain silent on such points in order to avoid emotional confrontation with the 'conspiracists' who believe that the truth should be sacrificed in order to promote political action.

The 97% consensus refers only to that (less than 50%) proportion of climate scientists who are prepared to categorically state that CO2 rises are the main driver of the current warming, and that such warming will be generally bad for the environment and humanity. The other 3% (of the 50% or less) are prepared to categorically state that current CO2 levels have a negligible effect on climate change.

Professor Stephen Schneider explained the process very well, as I mentioned in reply # 222 of this thread.

The great tragedy of this 'misrepresentation' of the evidence in the media is that many people will be duped into thinking that the severity of the latest flood, drought or hurricane which destroyed their homes and possibly caused some loss of life, is mainly the result of human emissions of CO2.

Instead of demanding that the government build more dams to reduce the effects of flooding and droughts, and introduce stricter building codes for homes subject to periodic cyclones or hurricanes, they jump on the bandwagon of renewable energy and kid themselves that their government is tackling the problem by introducing more expensive, subsidized, renewable energy.

The more expensive the energy, the less less likely it will be that the real solution to property damage and loss of life will be addressed.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #608 on: August 12, 2019, 08:32:19 am »

Good point!  ;)

I suspect that less than 50% of them are engaged in a conspiracy with the media and politics. Most climate scientists probably understand that climate changes are too complex to attribute a single cause to such changes, such as an increase in CO2 levels, although they will tend to remain silent on such points in order to avoid emotional confrontation with the 'conspiracists' who believe that the truth should be sacrificed in order to promote political action.

The 97% consensus refers only to that (less than 50%) proportion of climate scientists who are prepared to categorically state that CO2 rises are the main driver of the current warming, and that such warming will be generally bad for the environment and humanity. The other 3% (of the 50% or less) are prepared to categorically state that current CO2 levels have a negligible effect on climate change.

Professor Stephen Schneider explained the process very well, as I mentioned in reply # 222 of this thread.

The great tragedy of this 'misrepresentation' of the evidence in the media is that many people will be duped into thinking that the severity of the latest flood, drought or hurricane which destroyed their homes and possibly caused some loss of life, is mainly the result of human emissions of CO2.

Instead of demanding that the government build more dams to reduce the effects of flooding and droughts, and introduce stricter building codes for homes subject to periodic cyclones or hurricanes, they jump on the bandwagon of renewable energy and kid themselves that their government is tackling the problem by introducing more expensive, subsidized, renewable energy.

The more expensive the energy, the less less likely it will be that the real solution to property damage and loss of life will be addressed.
Even though I'm not in a flood zone, I just bought flood insurance for $500 a year. The morons who run the HOA (Homeowner's Association) in my 55+ community sold the rights to the builder next door to allow them dump their storm water runoffs for a new building site into our system's storm drain system.  The topography shows their area on the other side of the hill.  So the water there naturally runs off on the other side from us.  So now we're going to get more water that is not part of the government documents that show the new situation.  However, they had to get building;s department approval for the new design by PE's.  But what concerns me is that the odds of the 50 or 100 or 500 year "flood" has just gone down so it could create a problem for us in the future.    Already, two weeks ago, the drain outside the back of my house overfilled - it couldn't handle the heavy rains.  Fortunately, our house is on a slight decline so, any extra water should flow into the street bypassing us.  But who knows what will happen if it really gets bad. 

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #609 on: August 12, 2019, 09:03:46 am »

Even though I'm not in a flood zone, I just bought flood insurance for $500 a year. The morons who run the HOA (Homeowner's Association) in my 55+ community sold the rights to the builder next door to allow them dump their storm water runoffs for a new building site into our system's storm drain system.  The topography shows their area on the other side of the hill.  So the water there naturally runs off on the other side from us.  So now we're going to get more water that is not part of the government documents that show the new situation.  However, they had to get building;s department approval for the new design by PE's.  But what concerns me is that the odds of the 50 or 100 or 500 year "flood" has just gone down so it could create a problem for us in the future.    Already, two weeks ago, the drain outside the back of my house overfilled - it couldn't handle the heavy rains.  Fortunately, our house is on a slight decline so, any extra water should flow into the street bypassing us.  But who knows what will happen if it really gets bad.

A prudent choice on your part. It indeed looks like a strange decision, unless it's a purely financially motivated short term decision to sell those rights (which would explain it, but it remains dubiuous).

It's a pity that it cost you (and others) $500 a year while others benefit. I assume that the insurance also covers natural disasters.

In my country, we have had a collective system of water-management (organized in local Waterboards with a legal task, and elections for its boardmembers) for centuries already. The low lying parts of the country are surrounded by a network of levees/dikes. Windmill powered pump stations, later replaced by steam engines (nowadays with electric pumps and diesel backup) are used to keep the groundwater levels in check by pumping the excess water out into surrounding canals, which in their turn pump the water into rivers which carry the water off to sea.

The oldest (1845) steam-engine powered pumping station, "De Leeghwater", is still in occasional (600 hours a year) use today, as a backup station. In 1912 the steam engine was replaced by diesel engines. The D.F. Wouda pumping station near Lemmer (1920), with a flow of 4 million litres of water per minute, is the largest working steam pumping station in the world and is on the Unesco World Heritage List, and is still in (occasional) use.

When there is excess water it becomes harder to pump it into the rivers that have to fight higher seawater levels, and in periods of prolonged drought, due to a lack of counter-pressure, the seawater causes evermore salination of the agricultural lands further inland.

Cheers,
Bart
« Last Edit: August 12, 2019, 09:57:06 am by Bart_van_der_Wolf »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #610 on: August 12, 2019, 09:39:28 am »

A prudent choice on your part. It indeed looks like a strange decision, unless it's a purely financially motivated short term decision to sell those rights (which would explain it, but it remains dubiuous).

It's a pity that it cost you (and others) $500 a year while others benefit. I assume that the insurance also covers natural disasters.

In my country, we have had a collective system of water-management (organised in local Waterboards with a legal task, and elections for its boardmembers) for centuries already. The low lying parts of the country are surrounded by a network of levees/dikes. Windmill powered pump stations (nowadays with electric pumps and diesel backup) are used to keep the groundwater levels in check by pumping the excess water out into surrounding canals, which in their turn pump the water into rivers which carry the water off to sea.

When there is excess water it becomes harder to pump it into the rivers that have to fight higher seawater levels, and in periods of prolonged drought, due to a lack of counter-pressure, the seawater causes evermore salination of the agricultural lands further inland.

Cheers,
Bart
Fortunately, I'm not in the dubious situation you all face in the Netherlands.  I only have two thumbs and would never be able to survive there. :)

Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #611 on: August 12, 2019, 10:02:30 am »

Even though I'm not in a flood zone, I just bought flood insurance for $500 a year. The morons who run the HOA (Homeowner's Association) in my 55+ community sold the rights to the builder next door to allow them dump their storm water runoffs for a new building site into our system's storm drain system.  The topography shows their area on the other side of the hill.  So the water there naturally runs off on the other side from us.  So now we're going to get more water that is not part of the government documents that show the new situation.  However, they had to get building;s department approval for the new design by PE's.  But what concerns me is that the odds of the 50 or 100 or 500 year "flood" has just gone down so it could create a problem for us in the future.    Already, two weeks ago, the drain outside the back of my house overfilled - it couldn't handle the heavy rains.  Fortunately, our house is on a slight decline so, any extra water should flow into the street bypassing us.  But who knows what will happen if it really gets bad.

In Australia the insurance companies make a distinction between 'riverine' flooding, and 'flash flooding' which results from the poor contouring or shaping of the urban landscape to deal with any unusually heavy downpour of rain.

Riverine flooding is never unprecedented, so the history of past flooding events in the specific region is taken into consideration when the insurance companies calculate the price of 'riverine' flood insurance, which is very high.

However, it seems in the past that many people who lived close to a river hadn't read the fine print of their insurance policy and had assumed that their flood insurance covered all types of floods. When their house was washed away by a flooding river, they were devastated to find that they were not insured.

Fortunately, the government does come to their aid, but they probably don't get recompensed for the full value of their property, and certainly not for any loss of life.

I'm rather troubled, even alarmed, that Australian governments are not sufficiently addressing the problems, within the historical context of regular floods, droughts and cyclones that can be expected to reoccur regardless of current CO2 levels.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #612 on: August 12, 2019, 11:22:10 am »

In Australia the insurance companies make a distinction between 'riverine' flooding, and 'flash flooding' which results from the poor contouring or shaping of the urban landscape to deal with any unusually heavy downpour of rain.

Riverine flooding is never unprecedented, so the history of past flooding events in the specific region is taken into consideration when the insurance companies calculate the price of 'riverine' flood insurance, which is very high.

However, it seems in the past that many people who lived close to a river hadn't read the fine print of their insurance policy and had assumed that their flood insurance covered all types of floods. When their house was washed away by a flooding river, they were devastated to find that they were not insured.

Fortunately, the government does come to their aid, but they probably don't get recompensed for the full value of their property, and certainly not for any loss of life.

I'm rather troubled, even alarmed, that Australian governments are not sufficiently addressing the problems, within the historical context of regular floods, droughts and cyclones that can be expected to reoccur regardless of current CO2 levels.

The US government through FEMA has flood charts for the entire country.  When you buy a house, the mortgage company checks to see if you're in a flood zone.  They require you buy flood insurance if you are. 

I'm not in a flood zone, considered X zone for "everywhere else".  The insurance is about the same price for everyone ($500/annually roughly) with minor differences depending on the size/type house.  There are also limit for flood damage. I think is $100K for contents and $250K for the home.  Not very much.  Of course if your home floats away and it costs more to replace, you're out of luck.  These are the max limits with government insurance.  I suppose you could find independent insurance companies that provide more insurance for more expensive homes. 

I haven't read through all the caveats yet.  One that was interesting is that they don't consider it a flood unless at least two homes flooded.  So I guess if none of my neighbors suffered damage, then I'm out of luck.  Who knows what other escape clauses the insurance companies write for themselves.  :)

Peter McLennan

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #613 on: August 12, 2019, 01:25:48 pm »

That's a terrible situation.  But like weather, it's a local situation in the Harz Mountains of Germany.  What's happening across the world with the amount of trees and other greenery? 

Alan, try this link:  Especially the maps therein.  The Mountain Pine Beetle and the Spruce Budworm have in the last two decades devastated central British Columbia forests.  The cause?  Warm winters.

https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&biw=2313&bih=1225&tbm=isch&sa=1&ei=Up9RXaXjM4uJ0wL2pJeAAw&q=forest+insect+damage+british+columbia&oq=forest+insect+damage+british+columbia&gs_l=img.12...0.0..105752...0.0..0.0.0.......0......gws-wiz-img.iKJCSsnmUgg&ved=0ahUKEwil1Neq6_3jAhWLxFQKHXbSBTAQ4dUDCAY


Also, this.  Carbon dioxide-enhanced crops lose nutritional value

https://www.forbes.com/sites/fionamcmillan/2018/05/27/rising-co2-is-reducing-the-nutritional-value-of-our-food/#3dee05b75133

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Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #614 on: August 13, 2019, 12:55:40 am »


Also, this.  Carbon dioxide-enhanced crops lose nutritional value

https://www.forbes.com/sites/fionamcmillan/2018/05/27/rising-co2-is-reducing-the-nutritional-value-of-our-food/#3dee05b75133

Interesting article, but puzzling. It's been known for years that modern agricultural practices tend to reduce the nutrient and vitamin content of food crops in general, compared with preindustrial times when farming was more natural and organic with less use of growth-enhancing fertilizers such as Nitrogen.

CO2 is like a hidden fertilizer. It's always there, but increases so slowly from year to year that its effect would be impossible to detect in a single growing season, outside of an artificial environment of significantly enhanced CO2 levels, such as in a greenhouse or a FACE experiment.

However, the nutritional content of any particular type of food crop can vary enormously depending on the location where it was grown, the farming practices used, the type of fertilizers used, the biodiversity and health of the soils, the mineral content of the soils, and so on.

Being concerned about a possible lack of Selenium in my diet a few years ago, I did some research into the Selenium content of Brazil nuts. I came across recommendations that as little as one Brazil nut per day could meet the recommended daily dosage of 55 mcg. Other sites recommended as many as 5 or 6 Brazil nuts per day, which seemed rather odd, so I did some more searching.

I came across some scientific research that rigorously examined the Selenium content of Brazil nuts grown in many different locations around the world. I was amazed that the Selenium content varied by a factor of 10. In other words, if just one Brazil nut grown in ideal conditions could meet my daily needs for Selenium, it could take as many as 10 Brazil nuts grown in less ideal conditions to meet the same daily requirements for Selenium.

One major issue I have with experiments that show that enhanced CO2 levels reduce the protein, mineral and vitamin content of major food crops such as rice, is that these foods are already being stripped of much of their nutritional value through processing, particularly the processing of brown whole grain rice into nice, clean and attractive white rice, which most people eat, even in desperately poor countries.

From the following site http://www.whfoods.com/genpage.php?tname=foodspice&dbid=128

"The complete milling and polishing that converts brown rice into white rice destroys 67% of the vitamin B3, 80% of the vitamin B1, 90% of the vitamin B6, half of the manganese, half of the phosphorus, 60% of the iron, and all of the dietary fiber and essential fatty acids. Fully milled and polished white rice is required (by law in the US) to be "enriched" with vitamins B1, B3 and iron."

In other words, poor people who are undernourished should be encouraged to change their diet from white rice to whole-grain brown rice. The solution is education, not reducing CO2 levels.

A doubling of CO2 levels results in approximately a 1/3rd increase in rice yields, all else remaining the same. If you were living in a poverty stricken community where people were starving and undernourished, and someone offered you a choice of 90 Kg of polished white rice grown in preindustrial CO2 levels of 280 ppm, or 133 Kg of brown rice grown in twice the levels of CO2 (560 ppm), which would you choose? (I've used the figure 90 instead of 100, for the white rice, on the assumption that about 10% of the mass is thrown away during polishing).

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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #615 on: August 13, 2019, 01:13:42 am »

However, the nutritional content of any particular type of food crop can vary enormously depending on the location where it was grown, the farming practices used, the type of fertilizers used, the biodiversity and health of the soils, the mineral content of the soils, and so on.
...
Being concerned about a possible lack of Selenium in my diet a few years ago, I did some research into the Selenium content of Brazil nuts. I came across recommendations that as little as one Brazil nut per day could meet the recommended daily dosage of 55 mcg. Other sites recommended as many as 5 or 6 Brazil nuts per day, which seemed rather odd, so I did some more searching.
...
I came across some scientific research that rigorously examined the Selenium content of Brazil nuts grown in many different locations around the world. I was amazed that the Selenium content varied by a factor of 10. In other words, if just one Brazil nut grown in ideal conditions could meet my daily needs for Selenium, it could take as many as 10 Brazil nuts grown in less ideal conditions to meet the same daily requirements for Selenium.

Ray, you raise a very valid point about the nutritional values of the same crop grown under different conditions.

I always wanted to know the nutritional breakdown of the common vegetables, such as tomatoes, potatoes, cucumbers and such. The store bought variety vs home grown or purchased from a local farmer. Even tomatoes grown in a greenhouse vs field tomatoes.

I suspect that also most books stating the typical nutritional values are now drastically outdated, quoting the 20-year old test results while the produce in the stores today is much lower in most nutrients. While I can tell with closed eyes the difference between my own tomatoes and the store bought variety, it's close to impossible to get the actual results and compare these differences.
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #616 on: August 13, 2019, 08:06:47 am »

Ray and I had a long debate about the impact on CO2 and crop yield on the old climate change thread and anyone interested can go back and read the discussion.  I will only reiterate the key issue here.  With regard to the nutritional quality of seeds, one wants varieties that spend more energy into creating seed rather than biomass growth.  Biomass is pretty much non-nutritional other than for ruminants who can metabolize cellulose.  Plant breeders seek to optimize genetic factors that maximize seed production.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #617 on: August 13, 2019, 11:13:20 am »

Bananas disappearing due to a killer fungus! Maybe not due to the warming climate, but nevertheless a big problem.
First identified in Taiwan thirty years ago,then found in the Middle East and Africa in 2013, and now it has arrived to South America.

Quote
A fungus that has wreaked havoc on banana plantations in the Eastern Hemisphere has, despite years of preventative efforts, arrived in the Americas. ICA, the Colombian agriculture and livestock authority, confirmed on Thursday that laboratory tests have positively identified the presence of so-called Panama disease Tropical Race 4 on banana farms in the Caribbean coastal region. The announcement was accompanied by a declaration of a national state of emergency.

The discovery of the fungus represents a potential impending disaster for bananas as both a food source and an export commodity. Panama disease Tropical Race 4—or TR4—is an infection of the banana plant by a fungus of the genus Fusarium. Although bananas produced in infected soil are not unsafe for humans, infected plants eventually stop bearing fruit.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/banana-fungus-latin-america-threatening-future/
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RSL

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #618 on: August 13, 2019, 11:15:33 am »

Oh dear. We'll all have to switch to watermelon.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #619 on: August 13, 2019, 11:25:42 am »

Oh dear. We'll all have to switch to watermelon.

America is a free country. You can eat anything you like.
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