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Author Topic: Extreme weather  (Read 54312 times)

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #560 on: August 09, 2019, 03:09:11 pm »

Mosquitoes don't seem as bad as they use to be when I was a kid.  At least in NY and NJ.  I was always getting bitten and had loads of itchy bites all season.  Maybe my chemistry has changed and they just don't like me anymore.

The air quality in NYC must be too bad even for mosquitoes.  :(
Last month, I took my canoe about 150km north of Toronto, and mosquitoes seemed more numerous and more blood-thirsty than just a few years ago.
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #561 on: August 09, 2019, 03:09:53 pm »

This is an interesting infographic. 
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #562 on: August 09, 2019, 03:18:27 pm »

This is an interesting infographic. 
How many people die with malaria every year because we stopped using DDT?

JoeKitchen

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #563 on: August 09, 2019, 03:21:32 pm »

How many people die with malaria every year because we stopped using DDT?

Not sure, but banning it did save the Bald Eagle from extinction. 

It's always nice to be able to say that the national bird is still alive and well. 
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #564 on: August 09, 2019, 03:52:12 pm »

Not sure, but banning it did save the Bald Eagle from extinction. 

It's always nice to be able to say that the national bird is still alive and well. 
But malaria is not in the US.  They could have continued using it in Africa and elsewhere. No?

JoeKitchen

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #565 on: August 09, 2019, 03:56:57 pm »

But malaria is not in the US.  They could have continued using it in Africa and elsewhere. No?

It's not like DDT was only bad for one bird, the Bald Eagle.  It thinned the egg walls of several different bird species.  It would have done just as much damage to different predator birds in Africa too. 

On top of that, DDT was never intended for human use either.  It was dangerous for us too. 

Should we bring back Agent Orange as a weed killer too? 
« Last Edit: August 09, 2019, 04:02:03 pm by JoeKitchen »
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amolitor

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #566 on: August 09, 2019, 04:02:55 pm »

The DDT/malaria thing is a favorite anti-science talking point, but it's absolute B.S.

The trouble with DDT and malaria is not, to first order, because DDT is bad for the environment, it's because it doesn't work. Mosquitos develop DDT resistance very fast, especially if you're spraying the stuff around indiscriminately. The more localized the use of DDT (or other insecticides) the slower the targets develop resistance.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #567 on: August 09, 2019, 07:49:43 pm »

It's not like DDT was only bad for one bird, the Bald Eagle.  It thinned the egg walls of several different bird species.  It would have done just as much damage to different predator birds in Africa too. 

On top of that, DDT was never intended for human use either.  It was dangerous for us too. 

Should we bring back Agent Orange as a weed killer too? 

Weeds don't kill people, malaria does, about 400,000 people per year and many more sick from the disease.   In 2015 alone, there were an estimated 214 million new cases of malaria.  It sounds like DDT was good and bad.  It eliminated malaria from many countries and regions including North America, Europe and the Soviet Union.  India still uses it but for spraying on walls of homes.  The article points out a lot of negatives too.  But it did save a lot of people.  Of course since it wiped out malaria where we lived, who cares about what it's still doing in other parts of the world.  As long as we save a few birds, that's what's important. 

"In 1945, DDT was made available to farmers as an agricultural insecticide[5] and played a role in the final (for a time) elimination of malaria in Europe and North America.[9][31][32]

In 1955, the World Health Organization commenced a program to eradicate malaria in countries with low to moderate transmission rates worldwide, relying largely on DDT for mosquito control and rapid diagnosis and treatment to reduce transmission.[33] The program eliminated the disease in "North America, Europe, the former Soviet Union",[34] and in "Taiwan, much of the Caribbean, the Balkans, parts of northern Africa, the northern region of Australia, and a large swath of the South Pacific"[35] and dramatically reduced mortality in Sri Lanka and India.[36]

However, failure to sustain the program, increasing mosquito tolerance to DDT, and increasing parasite tolerance led to a resurgence. In many areas early successes partially or completely reversed, and in some cases rates of transmission increased.[37] The program succeeded in eliminating malaria only in areas with "high socio-economic status, well-organized healthcare systems, and relatively less intensive or seasonal malaria transmission".[34]"

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/DDT
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/dehradun/India-3rd-in-no-of-malaria-deaths-WHO/articleshow/49017287.cms?from=mdr

jeremyrh

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #568 on: August 10, 2019, 07:08:42 am »


https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2436/co2-is-making-earth-greenerfor-now/


That paper doesn't say what you try to make it say.

The beneficial impacts of carbon dioxide on plants may be limited, said co-author Dr. Philippe Ciais, associate director of the Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Sciences, Gif-suv-Yvette, France. “Studies have shown that plants acclimatize, or adjust, to rising carbon dioxide concentration and the fertilization effect diminishes over time.”
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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #569 on: August 10, 2019, 07:24:15 am »

Changes in population shifts with climate change as they have since time immemorial.  While some species might be affected negatively, others are positively affected. 

Also, warmer weather has increased species diversity and population.  Just compare the warmer Amazon region and to colder Alaska.  Even Canadians do better when it's warmer.  :)

Unfortunately, the warm weather and air pollution has caused an explosion of bark beetles, among other pests.
In Germany, in the Harz Mountains 100 Million of pine trees have been killed by the bark beetles.


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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #570 on: August 10, 2019, 07:44:36 am »

That paper doesn't say what you try to make it say.

The beneficial impacts of carbon dioxide on plants may be limited, said co-author Dr. Philippe Ciais, associate director of the Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Sciences, Gif-suv-Yvette, France. “Studies have shown that plants acclimatize, or adjust, to rising carbon dioxide concentration and the fertilization effect diminishes over time.”
That's a fair comment.  I"m glad you brought it up.  However, that's one "may happen" from an article that concluded from actual NASA satellite data the additional greening has occurred over the last 35 years.   This one guy said that maybe it will be reversed if plants adapt.  But there is NO data in their report and study that it has adapted. There's still more green as of the 2016 date of the report.

What's also interesting in the article is the following :"“While the detection of greening is based on data, the attribution to various drivers is based on models,” ".  So, while the extra greening is factual based on satellite data, the driver, CO2, is an assumption based on models.  In effect the extra greeing may be caused by something else. Interesting that we don't similarly hear that CO2 is a driver of warming based on models.  In warming case, it's assumed as fact.  The scientists in the greening case are being more honest.  It would be nice if we got that same honesty about warming and climate change.  That'[size=78%]s all I've been asking for.  [/size]

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #571 on: August 10, 2019, 08:07:14 am »

That's a fair comment.  I"m glad you brought it up.  However, that's one "may happen" from an article that concluded from actual NASA satellite data the additional greening has occurred over the last 35 years.   This one guy said that maybe it will be reversed if plants adapt.  But there is NO data in their report and study that it has adapted. There's still more green as of the 2016 date of the report.

What's also interesting in the article is the following :"“While the detection of greening is based on data, the attribution to various drivers is based on models,” ".  So, while the extra greening is factual based on satellite data, the driver, CO2, is an assumption based on models.  In effect the extra greeing may be caused by something else. Interesting that we don't similarly hear that CO2 is a driver of warming based on models.  In warming case, it's assumed as fact.  The scientists in the greening case are being more honest.  It would be nice if we got that same honesty about warming and climate change.  That'[size=78%]s all I've been asking for.  [/size]

Here's an update.  I did some checking and found this article. It seems a lot of assumed increase due to CO2 was actually due to more planting in India and China. "Overall, much of the greening in China and India comes from the "intensive" cultivation of crops, NASA found. This accounts for 32 percent of the greening in China and 82 percent in India."

It  also adds, ""Production of grains, vegetables, fruits and more have increased by 35 to 40 percent since 2000," NASA said."

...and "Zooming out, about one-third Earth's vegetated lands experienced greening, including a conspicuous portion of North America stretching from southern Mexico to high into the boreal forests of Canada.

Vast swaths of the Arctic tundra are greening too as the Arctic continues its historically unprecedented warming trend — which is also thawing the carbon-saturated ground (permafrost) and melting massive ice sheets. "

So the original report of 2016 was somewhat wrong assigning all the growth to CO2.  It would be refreshing if climatologist would be so open and honest as well.  When they put their thumb on the scale, it encourages disbelief and is counter productive. 

https://mashable.com/article/greening-china-india-nasa/

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #572 on: August 10, 2019, 08:11:46 am »

Unfortunately, the warm weather and air pollution has caused an explosion of bark beetles, among other pests.
In Germany, in the Harz Mountains 100 Million of pine trees have been killed by the bark beetles.



That's a terrible situation.  But like weather, it's a local situation in the Harz Mountains of Germany.  What's happening across the world with the amount of trees and other greenery?  From the studies above, the world is overall a lot more greener due to warming and CO2. 

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #573 on: August 10, 2019, 08:21:01 am »

Interesting that we don't similarly hear that CO2 is a driver of warming based on models.

The physical property of CO2 acting as a greenhouse gas has been known since 1896 and those measurable properties have not changed.



Historical records (obviously) agree with physics. Most of the modeling required, is focusing on assumptions of how slow Humans will reduce their emissions, or destroy forrests, or change the way they grow enough food to feed the world ...

Cheers,
Bart
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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #574 on: August 10, 2019, 08:22:53 am »

That's a terrible situation.  But like weather, it's a local situation in the Harz Mountains of Germany.  What's happening across the world with the amount of trees and other greenery?  From the studies above, the world is overall a lot more greener due to warming and CO2.

Not only in Germany. Also in Canada.

Quote
the beetle has migrated well beyond its historic range into northern British Columbia and eastward into the boreal forest of north-central Alberta.
Beetle populations grow when summers are warm/dry and winters are mild.

https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/our-natural-resources/forests-forestry/wildland-fires-insects-disturban/top-forest-insects-diseases-cana/mountain-pine-beetle/13381
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #575 on: August 10, 2019, 08:28:59 am »

BArt, we've seen that same chart about 6 times already.   What's new about it?  It doesn't provide proof.  The increase in CO2 could be coincidental with warming and not causal.    Or, like the article about greening, only part has to do with CO2 and the rest due to some other reasons.  The Israeli scientist thinks it has to do with change in sun's output, something I always favored. 

Things in nature are either increasing, decreasing, or staying the same.  So it's easy to point to two things going the same way and say one causes the other.  But that's just coincidence.  It happens all the time. It never proves causality.  It's not proof.

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #576 on: August 10, 2019, 08:30:40 am »

That's a terrible situation.  But like weather, it's a local situation in the Harz Mountains of Germany.  What's happening across the world with the amount of trees and other greenery?  From the studies above, the world is overall a lot more greener due to warming and CO2.

Your own linked article says something else:
Quote
Earth's greening — meaning the increase in areas covered by green leaves — has made the greatest gains in China and India since the mid-1990s. "The effect comes mostly from ambitious tree-planting programs in China and intensive agriculture in both countries," NASA wrote on Tuesday as it released maps of the planet-wide changes.
[...]
Previous NASA research found that Earth's increased greenery is largely due to skyrocketing levels of carbon-dioxide saturating the air — which plants use to grow. But this new research argues that tree and crop planting plays a bigger, outsized role.

Cheers,
Bart
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #577 on: August 10, 2019, 08:43:41 am »

BArt, we've seen that same chart about 6 times already.   What's new about it?  It doesn't provide proof.  The increase in CO2 could be coincidental with warming and not causal.

Besides that it's updated, apparently you have not seen it often enough for it to register, including this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PrrTk6DqzE&t=13s

The origin of the CO2 can be pretty well pinpointed on Human activity (even the US government agrees on that), i.e. burning of fossil fuel. The Carbon emissions bookkeeping and the atmospherical composition of Carbon isotopes and the inverse fluctuation of Oxygen are all consistent with, and cannot be explained by other actors, "It's US".

Nature reacts in several ways, acidification of water, increasing temperatures, expanding water volumes, global changes in temperature distribution, local droughts and downpours, more Extreme Weather.

And it threatens food-production if we do not mend our ways of landuse:
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/srccl/

Cheers,
Bart
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #578 on: August 10, 2019, 08:45:50 am »

Not only in Germany. Also in Canada.

https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/our-natural-resources/forests-forestry/wildland-fires-insects-disturban/top-forest-insects-diseases-cana/mountain-pine-beetle/13381
But isn't Canada greener overall?  As it warms up, former regions up north that couldn't support trees, shrubs, and grass, are now doing so and more than making up for losses due to a beetle.  Nature isn't static.  Unfortunately, we all tend to cherry pick certain data to prove our point.  We have to look at the full picture.  For example, leaving aside the extra mosquitos when you go on your canoe trip up north, has the warmer weather given you more time to going canoeing?  Earlier thaws, and more heat is conducive to that.  BRinging it back to photography, you have more opportunity to capture that once-in-a-lifetime shot.  :)

Here's a couple of shots I tool in the Adirondacks in New York State in Lake Algonquin in Wells, NY.  The canoeing and kayaking were great.
Dock by Alan Klein, on Flickr

Canoe View by Alan Klein, on Flickr

https://www.flickr.com/photos/alanklein2000/6176981704/in/album-72157627614472967/


[url=https://flic.kr/p/apQDsy]Lake Algonquin, NY by Alan Klein, on Flickr[/url]

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #579 on: August 10, 2019, 08:49:09 am »

Your own linked article says something else:
Cheers,
Bart

Planting plays a bigger role in China and India, not the rest of the world where extra greening is occurring naturally. 
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