Brexit Encore

[Rob C]

This paints the sobering picture more clearly:
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/gbr/#Exports

1. There's a trade deficit, the UK imports more than it exports. So it needs to make better deals on its own than it could as a member of Europe.
2. Something in the order of 39% is exported to Europe, currently without import duties.
3. Some 12% is exported to Asia and the Middle East. If the UK adopts the same export duties as it does now, not much will change. But will they get as good a deal for imports as they get as a European member?
4. Some 11% is exported to the USA, so if the USA will drop duties and taxation, there's some potential upside. But will the USA do that? Will the USA give the UK as good import duties as they currently have as a member of Europe?

So even with their largest customer, Europe, they may lose market share if duties are added that are currently not added in an internal market.

It really looks grim, and I do not say that with any joy whatsoever.

Cheers,
Bart

Those figures, at around 42 billion, are less than half Alan's figures.

Shakespeare, Denmark and little smells.

[faberryman]

OEC figures as per 2017:
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/gbr/#Exports
Exports Total: $395B
Imports Total: $618B

Alan and Rob were talking about imports/exports between the US and UK.

[faberryman]

Ah, but Brexit is bigger than that... The biggest trading partner is Europe.

In the event of a no-deal Brexit, what tariffs will be applicable to goods from the UK?

[kers]

Terrific BBC detective series and drama in general. Well, comedy too for that matter. Good history television too.

+ music !

[Alan Klein]

Boris is already promising billions, left, right and centre to cushion Brexit damage (at once, inadvertently, admitting it's real!) so what do a few hundred of them matter when you operate in cloud cuckoo format? From where will all of these billions come, from the same 350 million per week that they lyingly told us were going to be diverted to the health service once we left Europe, and denied as "mistake" instantly, the very day they knew they had won the referendum? There are no existing billions to spend; there is only greater debt - should anyone be dumb enough to lend in the first place.

Well, Obama lied to us as well.  He told us with Obamacare, we could keep the doctors we had and it won't cost more than we're paying now.  Both lies. 

[faberryman]

Well, Obama lied to us as well.  He told us with Obamacare, we could keep the doctors we had and it won't cost more than we're paying now.  Both lies.

Not sure what Obamas statements about the ACA have to do with Boris Johnson and Brexit. Perhaps you can elaborate.

[Alan Klein]

Not sure what Obamas statements about the ACA have to do with Boris Johnson and Brexit. Perhaps you can elaborate.

Jus that both leaders lied to the public to get their legislation approved.

[Alan Klein]

 

Ah, but Brexit is bigger than that.

The top export destinations of the United Kingdom are the United States ($45.2B), Germany ($38.6B), the Netherlands ($24.9B), France ($24.8B) and China ($21.9B).

The top import origins of the United Kingdom are Germany ($90.3B), China ($58.9B), the Netherlands ($47B), the United States ($46.6B) and France ($36B).

All per 2017. The biggest trading partner is Europe.

Cheers,
Bart

Bart  Your numbers may only include goods but not services.

Here are the full amounts from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative:

"U.S. goods and services trade with United Kingdom totaled an estimated $262.3 billion in 2018. Exports were $141.1 billion; imports were $121.2 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade surplus with United Kingdom was $19.9 billion in 2018.

United Kingdom is currently our 7th largest goods trading partner with $127.0 billion in total (two way) goods trade during 2018. Goods exports totaled $66.2 billion; goods imports totaled $60.8 billion. The U.S. goods trade surplus with United Kingdom was $5.4 billion in 2018.

Trade in services with United Kingdom (exports and imports) totaled an estimated $135.3 billion in 2018. Services exports were $74.9 billion; services imports were $60.4 billion. The U.S. services trade surplus with United Kingdom was $14.5 billion in 2018.

According to the Department of Commerce, U.S. exports of Goods and Services to United Kingdom supported an estimated 665 thousand jobs in 2015 (latest data available) (238 thousand supported by goods exports and 427 thousand supported by services exports)."
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/united-kingdom

[faberryman]

Bart  Your numbers may only include goods but not services.

Services are not subject to tariffs.

[Alan Klein]

A no-deal Brexit will result in import tariffs with the EU, but the British want lower tariffs for countries outside the EU.

The British Government is going to abolish almost all import duties in the case of leaving the European Union without an agreement, the no-deal Brexit. This would mainly affect trade relations with countries outside the EU.

The British media reported that 80% of imports are already being imported duty-free, but after the no-deal Brexit, this will be 87% on average in the government's plans.


Import duties for EU countries at no deal Brexit
In contrast to the current situation, EU countries will be subject to import duties, including on fuel, artificial fertilisers, certain types of fruit and fish, dairy products, meat and cars. A new car from the EU would then be taxed at a rate of more than 10%. London is planned to introduce import duties on 18% of goods imported from the EU in the event of a chaotic brexit.

But there are lots of other additional costs involved, waiting times at the border, administration (paperwork), prolonged cooled storage for perishable goods, larger stock supplies instead of JIT delivery, etc., etc. Lots of personnel need to be trained/attracted from other countries to do that additional work that used to be done centrally from Brussels (like making Trade agreements). And it looks like little has been done in the UK, unlike in Europe where customs officers have been trained, extra warehouses have been built, computer systems have been upgraded, etc.

And the Irish border will become a big issue, and social tensions will rise.

Cheers,
Bart

If GB and the US drop all tariffs, trade between the two countries will increase helping out GB from losses with the EU.  If the EU applies tariffs to GB products, then GB will do the same.  So both side will be interested in dropping tariffs so they don;t lose trade with the other.  Now because of political complaints with the EU members, there may have to a little tariffs.  Maybe 5% or under just to keep EU members quiet as their tariffs among the Eu members remain at zero.

[Alan Klein]

Services are not subject to tariffs.

Bart will deny it, but he thought he was talking about full imports and exports not just goods. 

[Rob C]

If GB and the US drop all tariffs, trade between the two countries will increase helping out GB from losses with the EU.  If the EU applies tariffs to GB products, then GB will do the same.  So both side will be interested in dropping tariffs so they don;t lose trade with the other.  Now because of political complaints with the EU members, there may have to a little tariffs.  Maybe 5% or under just to keep EU members quiet as their tariffs among the Eu members remain at zero.

And then the good fairy said 'night, children, sleep well!

[Alan Klein]

And then the good fairy said 'night, children, sleep well!

Rob, I'm trying to be positive for you and GB.  Why do you feel that the US and GB couldn;t make a deal with no tariffs?  Why do you feel that the EU and GB couldn't make a deal with tariffs slightly higher than those among the remaining EU members if not any at all?  After all, it's to everyone's advantage not to have tariffs as is the case now. 

Here's an idea.  You Brits and we Americans make a trade deal where there are no tariffs between us.  Let's call it, eh, BATS - The British American Trade Settlement.  Then you and we tell the EU they will be charged tariffs if they charge our members, Great Britain and America, any tariffs on our exports to them.  In fact, we will double EU tariffs on their exports to our countries.  Sort of what we're doing to China.  What do you think the German auto manufacturers from Mercedes, BMW et al will tell Merkel?  "Das Brits and das Americans are batty.  You got to drop tariffs or ve go out of business."  Walla!  Now GB and the US are selling our goods to Europe with no tariffs. The Irish march in the street praising, "Long Live the Queen and all Her Little Grandchildren."

You see how that works. 

[Alan Klein]

Here's what's wrong with such reasoning. You seem to think that 'Tariffs are penalties to get at the other party/parties', and bully them into doing something they don't want to do. That's similar to the very simplistic reasoning that Trump entertains. Instead, tariffs are to level the playing field, not merely hurt your trading partner where it hurts most.

See? That's nonsense, or as Rob put it in more veiled words; "And then the good fairy said 'night, children, sleep well!". We Dutch often don't have such patience, we just say it as it is, and don't leave it floating in the air. Get it over with, and move on. That's also what I referred to in another post, when I mentioned cultural differences.

Because in the real world, outside fairyland, tariffs are tuned to those products that need a more level playing field. Since one generally mostly imports different products than one exports to the same trading partner, one cannot compensate for one product line's tariffs by simplistically changing the tariff on another product line. That would only trigger a spiraling tariff situation for the worst, and competition claiming the prize.

Cheers,
Bart

The tariffs I proposed is not to hurt my trading partner.  It is to level the playing field.  That's exactly what I proposed.  Please re-read my post.  If Europe applies tariffs on British and American BATS products, we will apply the same tariffs on EU products shipped to Britain and the US.  That levels the playing field.  What is it about that you don't understand? So if Europe wants us to drop our BATS tariffs, we will at the same time Europe drops theirs' on Britain and America.  The whole idea of tariffs is to product your own products by adding tariffs on similar products that are imported.  If the products are not imported, then there wouldn't even be a need for a tariff because you're not buying the product.  So obviously, the problem is tariffs on products both sides sell.  If Europe sell America $50 billion in cars and we sell $5 billion and you charge 25% tariff, we will increase our tariff on your $50 billion in cars to 25% so we have an even playing field.  If you decide to eliminate tariff on cars, so will we.  What's unfair about that?

[Alan Klein]

Nothing to do with fair or unfair.

China will be selling you the same cars at a much better price, since in your dream model you both artificially increased your prices.

Cheers,
Bart

Non-sequitur.  This is between Europe and BATS.  Britain and the US will charge Europe the same tariffs you charge us.  IF China charges us tariffs on our cars and other products we ship them, we will do they same with their cars and other products they ship to us.  They also have to stop stealing our intellectual property.  If we make a deal, then there won;t be tariffs.  Neither way will effect the deals and tariffs we make with Europe. The EU will have to make a deal co-jointly with Britain and the US.

PS: Rob, see how I fight for you and we?   

[LesPalenik]

This may get attention of the UK voters:

The plummeting value of the pound will mean holidaygoers lose out when it comes to spending on food, drink and travel this summer, financial experts have warned.

https://metro.co.uk/2019/07/30/get-20-fewer-pints-holiday-summer-thanks-falling-pound-10486318/

[Rob C]

This may get attention of the UK voters:

https://metro.co.uk/2019/07/30/get-20-fewer-pints-holiday-summer-thanks-falling-pound-10486318/

Then, unless totally addled, he has to add on travel insurance. But some Brits have a well-developed sense of scam, and getting their money back. From " stolen" jewellery to upset tummies, they have manifold methods of claiming back the cost of their holiday. Mostly, it takes but one nervous travel company rep to sign a chit, and there you go. A police report for the stolen jewels you could probably never have afforded to buy in the first place, goes a long way too.

Isn't humanity a wonderful thing: ever ready to learn new techniques!

:-)

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

This may get attention of the UK voters:

https://metro.co.uk/2019/07/30/get-20-fewer-pints-holiday-summer-thanks-falling-pound-10486318/

More pounds spent domestically, helping British, not foreign economies.

[kers]

More pounds spent domestically, helping British, not foreign economies.

yes, probably they also go back to underwear made of wool...

[Rob C]

More pounds spent domestically, helping British, not foreign economies.

Of course; is that anchor the lifestyle you desire?

I thought you guys were all about freedom to think and work outside the box, express yourselves and to travel...

All situation ethics, then?

:-)