An early September announcement seems more likely now, according to the latest from Mirrorlessrumors, Canonrumors and others.
Rumoured specs:
- 28MP
- Dual-pixel AF
- IBIS
- 10fps
- 4k/30fps and 1080p/60fps
- 1900USD
Clearly, it is in the same price bracket as the A7III. But the specs so far don't tell us very much about the role of the camera and where it will fit in the lineup, although we can probably infer a few things. It could be an entry-level full-frame camera (the launch price is similar to that of the 6D2), but it could also be an ideal general-purpose/event/wedding camera, like the A7III. Perhaps the two concepts have mostly merged and are one and the same now, just as action stills and video cameras are likely to merge at some point in the near future - 24-30MP full-frame sensors are more than enough for weddings/events, while entry-level AF has improved to the point where no system is likely to have problems focusing on static or slow-moving scenes, leaving dual cards/data redundancy as the main requirement for event/wedding photography that isn't necessarily covered by every camera.
28MP could mean anything. Is it an old-style Canon sensor without column-parallel ADC and limited low-ISO DR, or is it a 5D4-type sensor with low-ISO performance in the same ballpark as Exmor-type sensors? One would hope it's the latter, or Canon could be shooting themselves in the foot in terms of initial uptake.
Dual-pixel AF was expected, but is a win all-round. It's theoretically a better system than the separate AF layer currently used by Sony, and now Nikon (in fact, Sony has now patented its own dual-pixel AF system for that reason) - the fact that the A9/A7r3/A7III have better AF than the Canon 6D2 or M-series bodies is not because the underlying AF method is better, but because there's simply more of it, with faster processors and more dedicated AF electronics (similar to how the D5/1DxII focus a lot faster than entry-level Canon/Nikon bodies, even though all are using off-sensor PDAF based on the same underlying technology), and because most existing Canon lenses have moving parts that aren't optimised for mirrorless AF modes (which is why even the FE-mount Sigma Art series lenses don't focus as quickly or smoothly on Sony bodies as the EF and F mount versions do on Canon/Nikon bodies - the mechanics simply aren't optimised for mirrorless, regardless of the compatibility of the electronics). I would hope it also includes eye focus, face detection and other AI-based AF modes, since these are the areas which have the potential to give mirrorless a huge advantage over the 'dumb' SLR AF systems, and which, in the cases of face detection and eye focus, could mean the difference between an entry-level camera and a fantastic event/wedding/human-centric camera that can nail focus with thin-DOF lenses every time.
10fps is neither here nor there - fast enough for action without marking it as an action-oriented body. Looking at cameras from the past year or so, it seems that 9-10fps is the new 'gold standard' for general-purpose bodies - any new body that can't manage it had better have a good reason, such as 16-bit output that's measurably different from standard 14-bit, or a truly huge number of megapixels.
In any case, I'm hoping for dual card slots - almost regardless of the other specs (provided the AF meets a certain minimum standard, which isn't all that strenuous), this, along with the initial lens lineup, may be the main feature which decides if the new camera becomes a top-class event/wedding/portrait/general-purpose body, like the A7III, or just another entry-level full-frame mirrorless body that doesn't give someone with an existing Canon lens collection much reason to buy it over an already-existing SLR body.
