Brexit - shifting sands ?

[Alan Klein]

Just wondering, Alan, if you're aware that both BMW, VW and Mercedes manufacture some of their models in the USA. Mercedes even had a tie-up with Chrysler (not sure if they still do ). BMW with the 'Mini' and variations of the X series, Merc with the C and GLS class and VW the Passat and Atlas.

We appreciate that they build their cars here in America.  Maybe they can open more plants here.  That would help our employment and add wealth to our country. Also, the EU would avoid tariffs on cars built in Europe that use to be shipped here. 

Hey, here's an idea.  If the EU dropped its tariffs on our cars shipped there, then we would do the same.   Then the problem would be over. 

[jeremyrh]

We appreciate that they build their cars here in America.  Maybe they can open more plants here.  That would help our employment and add wealth to our country. Also, the EU would avoid tariffs on cars built in Europe that use to be shipped here. 

Hey, here's an idea.  If the EU dropped its tariffs on our cars shipped there, then we would do the same.   Then the problem would be over.

That's assuming we actually want to buy American cars :-)

[Alan Klein]

Regardless of tarrifs on those "quality" cars such as Mercedes and BMW, those already able to purchase will sigh, and carry right on to the next model whenever it comes out.

We are not talking selling to the Ford Fiesta crowd (moi) here, but to folks who can buy whatever the hell their hearts desire. Hiking the price just raises the desirability and satisfaction quotient. Some might even feel more exclusive because of it.

There are Japanese cars like Acura, Lexus and Infiniti that compete with Europe's classy cars.  It Trump puts tariffs on EU cars only but not Japanese (they don't have tariffs on American cars now), BMW, Mercedes Audi will lose a huge share of the American market.  Like I said, their CEO's will be telling Merkel to make a deal.

[Alan Klein]

That's assuming we actually want to buy American cars :-)

If that's true, why would they keep their tariffs and risk losing US market share?

[Alan Klein]

Trump's going to put major tariffs on $500 billion of China's exports to America.  I guess he's sending a signal to Junker before he arrives for negotiations here.  The EU is next unless we make a deal.  What do you think German automakers are telling Junker today?   
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/19/trump-says-hes-ready-to-put-tariffs-on-all-505-billion-of-chinese-.html

[Rob C]

Agree with your one-line summary but ... that article is utter garbage. Some things can carry on with no deal - planes can fly, trucks can roll, but other things will not happen - jobs for EU nationals, retirement houses for expats in Spain, because those things require the legitimacy of laws and confidence in a long term stability.

The country seems to have been utterly ****ed by the personal ambitions and ideologies of a few over-grown schoolboys. I despair.

We don't always coincide in these matters, but this time my mental aura is in perfect harmony with yours.

Not only overgrown schoolboys, but from the 19th century. Probably think Queen Victoria is away on holiday right now...

I've been trying to sell for perhaps three years now, and I have to admit that any Brit thinking of buying today, before this friggin' Brexit mess is settled, has to be out of his skull.

Not just buying, but inheritance laws, tax libilities, health service access, all of that gets thrown up in the air like a pack of cards on the very edge of a precipice. I wonder if many even thought about their EHIC (which replaced the E 111 card) and what that actually signifies even on holidays.

The problems and questions that are currently left unanswered are very scary indeed.

[Alan Goldhammer]

We appreciate that they build their cars here in America.  Maybe they can open more plants here.  That would help our employment and add wealth to our country. Also, the EU would avoid tariffs on cars built in Europe that use to be shipped here. 

Hey, here's an idea.  If the EU dropped its tariffs on our cars shipped there, then we would do the same.   Then the problem would be over.

The New York Times has a lengthy article on the BMW plant in Spartanburg SC today.  It is BMW's largest plant in the world and the largest exporter of American made cars.

[Alan Goldhammer]

There are Japanese cars like Acura, Lexus and Infiniti that compete with Europe's classy cars.  It Trump puts tariffs on EU cars only but not Japanese (they don't have tariffs on American cars now), BMW, Mercedes Audi will lose a huge share of the American market. Like I said, their CEO's will be telling Merkel to make a deal.

Only Audi will be adversely impacted as all of theirs are imported at present.  I've not seen anything to point to Audi manufacturing in the US.  BMW won't be impacted much at all because of the Spartanburg plant.  I don't know how many cars Mercedes makes in the US at their plant.

[Alan Goldhammer]

We don't always coincide in these matters, but this time my mental aura is in perfect harmony with yours.

Not only overgrown schoolboys, but from the 19th century. Probably think Queen Victoria is away on holiday right now...

I've been trying to sell for perhaps three years now, and I have to admit that any Brit thinking of buying today, before this friggin' Brexit mess is settled, has to be out of his skull.

Not just buying, but inheritance laws, tax libilities, health service access, all of that gets thrown up in the air like a pack of cards on the very edge of a precipice. I wonder if many even thought about their EHIC (which replaced the E 111 card) and what that actually signifies even on holidays.

The problems and questions that are currently left unanswered are very scary indeed.

How much will you suffer if a hard Brexit goes through?

[jeremyrh]

If that's true, why would they keep their tariffs and risk losing US market share?

No idea. I can't see POS American cars being very popular here. On the other hand, why the US tariffs on European small trucks?

[jeremyrh]

How much will you suffer if a hard Brexit goes through?

That is the worst scenario this side of no deal at all.

[Alan Goldhammer]

No idea. I can't see POS American cars being very popular here. On the other hand, why the US tariffs on European small trucks?

American-made cars would have to be manufactured with right side drive which would require changes to the manufacturing lines further driving up the costs.

[Alan Klein]

The New York Times has a lengthy article on the BMW plant in Spartanburg SC today.  It is BMW's largest plant in the world and the largest exporter of American made cars.

What's your point?  What does this have to do with higher EU tariffs on the cars we ship to Europe?  These American made BMW's that we ship to Europe to sell will have a tariff added to them so that we can't compete with BMW's made in Europe. 

[Alan Klein]

Only Audi will be adversely impacted as all of theirs are imported at present.  I've not seen anything to point to Audi manufacturing in the US.  BMW won't be impacted much at all because of the Spartanburg plant.  I don't know how many cars Mercedes makes in the US at their plant.

So you're confirming what I said.  European cars will lose American share to Japanese and American autos. 

[Alan Klein]

American-made cars would have to be manufactured with right side drive which would require changes to the manufacturing lines further driving up the costs.

What's that have to do with tariffs? 

[Alan Klein]

No idea. I can't see POS American cars being very popular here. On the other hand, why the US tariffs on European small trucks?

What does POS mean?

[Rob C]

How much will you suffer if a hard Brexit goes through?

Pretty much all the problems I listed for a new buyer, the most pressing being health services. For a while that seemed settled: UK expats already living within Europe and in the system, would have their present situation carried forward. Then the proclamation that "nothing is settled until everything is settled!" whatever that means in governmental non-speak.

So all these months later, nobody knows anything, only that the pound is ever weaker and making the pension more miserable and inadequate as the weeks wear on. Perhaps that's what has caused my current photographic dry spell. Who can concentrate on things of the soul with hard reality fighting for attention?

:-)

[Rob C]

American cars for the U.K.

I think that they have never had much hold for the market: they used to be too large, and too heavy on very expensive petrol. Petrol was always expensive in Britain, at least from '56 when I started driving.

Ford eventually made a rhd Mustang, and now it faces being made uncompetitive with better-made, hot European cars.  Its US heritage/romantic cachet may not be enough any longer. That is, unless Brexit makes everything uncompetitive. I can almost imagine Red Robbo coming back to life in some resurrected British Leyland adventure... beware, Pittsburgh, what you wish!

One of the Kray Twin wives had an American car... (I think it was one of the last cars that were made to Italian design by the company that grew out of the dead Studebaker)* a few other folks, mainly in the other showbiz with music and cameras, had them too, but usually people went for Jaguar and the local uber-brands that are still made in Britain, even if not actually owned by us anymore. Some went German and some Italian, too.

I am still nostalgic for US cars, but during my impressionable years I lived in India, and V8 was daily transport when I was out of prison boarding school, so maybe I see life from a different perspective. India may have been in Britain's immediate sphere of influence, but there were more US cars and magazines around than anything else that I can remember.


* Apparently not: seems to have been a Barracuda from Plymouth!

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

What does POS mean?

Piece of sh*t.

[Alan Goldhammer]

One of the Cray Twin wives had an American car... (I think it was one of the last cars that were made to Italian design by the company that grew out of the dead Studebaker)

AFAIK Studebaker never used an Italian design.  The car you may be thinking of is the Avanti and it was designed by the French American, Raymond Loewy.  He did some other work for Studebaker and lots of other companies.