Brexit - shifting sands ?

[Jeremy Roussak]

Billion dollar question.
They either agree what is referred to as Norway+, or they go to WTO rules.

That's a dramatic oversimplification, as you well know.

Jeremy

[Jeremy Roussak]

Thank you, both all.  I really do enjoy reading your posts (Some, Slobodan, not all) [/levity] and hope the Mods take note and refrain from nuking a future Trump thread. Also hope that everyone feels free to comment and contribute here.

The Moderators Know Everything. Even before you post it. Beware.

Jeremy

[Alan Goldhammer]

Alan, there have always been obligatory passport checks traveling to the UK via Chunnel or ferry.  I suppose they never signed the Schengen agreement (same with Ireland and Cyprus).

I knew they were not part of the Schengen agreement as we found out the hard way.  We had a trip scheduled for Croatia three years ago and they would not let my wife board the plane here in Washington.  Her passport was only valid for three months from the end of our trip which was only scheduled for 12 days.  Schengen countries require a passport with at least six months to expiry.  The weird thing was that the United Airlines didn't flag it when I entered the information into their web database but only told us at the airport.  It was our fault in the end for not being familiar with the passport/visa regulations.  We could have gone to the UK or Ireland as they only required a passport that was valid for the duration of the trip.  We learned a hard lesson that day and ended up forfeiting only one night hotel stay as we were able to cancel all the others. 

[bassman51]

Life is inherently unfair.

Life is not unfair.   “Fair” and “unfair” are concepts that don’t really exist in life.  Life just is.

[Alan Klein]

I knew they were not part of the Schengen agreement as we found out the hard way.  We had a trip scheduled for Croatia three years ago and they would not let my wife board the plane here in Washington.  Her passport was only valid for three months from the end of our trip which was only scheduled for 12 days.  Schengen countries require a passport with at least six months to expiry.  The weird thing was that the United Airlines didn't flag it when I entered the information into their web database but only told us at the airport.  It was our fault in the end for not being familiar with the passport/visa regulations.  We could have gone to the UK or Ireland as they only required a passport that was valid for the duration of the trip.  We learned a hard lesson that day and ended up forfeiting only one night hotel stay as we were able to cancel all the others. 

Although it didn't matter in the end, Norwegian Cruise Lines flagged us with the 6 month requirement before our cruise to the south Caribbean Sea.  We had to expedite our passport renewals that cost extra money.  Here's a list of countries that have the 6 month rule.  Croatia isn;t on it.  But I suppose the rules change so I would get the renewal regardless of the countries you're visiting.

https://fastportpassport.com/blog/six-month-validity-passport-rule

[Manoli]

That's a dramatic oversimplification, as you well know.

Absolutely.
Alan Klein asked a simple outline question - considering the context, it's a reasonable recap (in a couple sentences) of the two most plausible eventualities.
But, please, do expand on the question.

Edit:
Opinion piece in The Guardian by Simon Jenkins:  "Don’t worry, a no-deal Brexit won’t be allowed to happen"

People at the coalface of the European economy cannot afford the posturing, vanity and idiocy of the Brexit parliament this past week. They have lives to live and mouths to feed. A closed border with the EU, not least in Ireland, would be like closing the Berlin Wall after it had reopened. There would be riots. That is why crashing out would not mean hard Brexit, but rather remain in all but name. When Brexit fantasy hits practical reality, reality will win.

[Alan Goldhammer]

Although it didn't matter in the end, Norwegian Cruise Lines flagged us with the 6 month requirement before our cruise to the south Caribbean Sea.  We had to expedite our passport renewals that cost extra money.  Here's a list of countries that have the 6 month rule.  Croatia isn;t on it.  But I suppose the rules change so I would get the renewal regardless of the countries you're visiting.

https://fastportpassport.com/blog/six-month-validity-passport-rule

We were flying to Frankfurt and then on to Zagreb.  You cannot land in Germany without six months on your passport.  That's why we were could not board.  We renewed both passports right away and also got Global reentry which allows you to get back in the country easily.

[Alan Klein]

We were flying to Frankfurt and then on to Zagreb.  You cannot land in Germany without six months on your passport.  That's why we were could not board.  We renewed both passports right away and also got Global reentry which allows you to get back in the country easily.

It's a good thing you got back before SCOTUS signed off on Trump's travel ban.  You might still be there. 

[Alan Klein]

Absolutely.
Alan Klein asked a simple outline question - considering the context, it's a reasonable recap (in a couple sentences) of the two most plausible eventualities.
But, please, do expand on the point.

Edit:
Opinion piece in The Guardian by Simon Jenkins:  "Don’t worry, a no-deal Brexit won’t be allowed to happen"

So Britain can make whatever trade deal it wants with the US?

[Alan Klein]

So Britain can make whatever trade deal it wants with the US?

When Brexit is done, can Britain and American sign off on the BRAMTA trade agreement whereby all trade between Great Britain and America will have no tariffs?  (BRAMTA is my name for it-  The BRitish-AMerican Trade Agreement)

[Manoli]

So Britain can make whatever trade deal it wants with the US?

It'll depend on the terms, if any, agreed with the EU. And not 'any trade deal it wants', but more probably a trade deal that Trump wants. In case you missed it, Alan - Junker is due in the USA in just under a week, in reality to continue trade discussions initiated by Obama.

Obama told the UK to 'stay', Trump told the UK to 'leave' - go figure, as they say across the pond.

Junker said he would seek again to explain to Trump that the European Commission coordinates trade policy for the 28-country European Union and that the United States could therefore not forge a trade deal with just one of its members.

“When it comes to trade, the European Union, its internal market, its single market, form an indivisible unity and it’s the Commission that is in charge of articulating trade policy. All efforts to divide the European Union are in vain,” Juncker said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-eu/eus-juncker-upbeat-and-relaxed-ahead-of-trump-trade-meeting-idUSKBN1K81ZC

[Alan Klein]

It'll depend on the terms, if any, agreed with the EU. And not 'any trade deal it wants', but more probably a trade deal that Trump wants. In case you missed it, Alan - Junker is due in the USA in just under a week, in reality to continue trade discussions initiated by Obama.

Obama told the UK to 'stay', Trump told the UK to 'leave' - go figure, as they say across the pond.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-eu/eus-juncker-upbeat-and-relaxed-ahead-of-trump-trade-meeting-idUSKBN1K81ZC

I don't understand your post.  Once GB leaves the EU, it won;t be tied to its trade policies.  GB won;t be a member any longer.

[Alan Klein]

It'll depend on the terms, if any, agreed with the EU. And not 'any trade deal it wants', but more probably a trade deal that Trump wants. In case you missed it, Alan - Junker is due in the USA in just under a week, in reality to continue trade discussions initiated by Obama.

Obama told the UK to 'stay', Trump told the UK to 'leave' - go figure, as they say across the pond.



https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-eu/eus-juncker-upbeat-and-relaxed-ahead-of-trump-trade-meeting-idUSKBN1K81ZC

The linked article says that EU Trade head Juncker is going to the US to negotiate.  It says he's calm about the meeting. I doubt it.  I'm sure he's intuiting Trump's game plan. If the the EU doesn't agree to lower their tariffs, Trump will put American tariffs on EU cars before his jet lands in Europe. Then the CEO's of VW, BMW and Mercedes will tell Merkel to stop the nonsense and drop EU 10% tariffs on cars.  The funny thing is he's meeting Larry Kudlow one of Trump's trade advisors.  Larry hates tariffs.  Go figure.  Politics make strange bedfellows. 

[Martin Kristiansen]

Life is not unfair.   “Fair” and “unfair” are concepts that don’t really exist in life.  Life just is.

Finally!

[Manoli]

If the the EU doesn't agree to lower their tariffs, Trump will put American tariffs on EU cars before his jet lands in Europe. Then the CEO's of VW, BMW and Mercedes will tell Merkel to stop the nonsense and drop EU 10% tariffs on cars...

Just wondering, Alan, if you're aware that both BMW, VW and Mercedes manufacture some of their models in the USA. Mercedes even had a tie-up with Chrysler (not sure if they still do ). BMW with the 'Mini' and variations of the X series, Merc with the C and GLS class and VW the Passat and Atlas.

The reality: BMW is America’s biggest car exporter

What Trump apparently didn’t know is that BMW Group (the umbrella for BMW, Mini, and Rolls-Royce) is a model for exporting cars from the US. The BMW factory in Spartanburg is BMW’s largest facility in the world, with the most volume: 411,171 BMWs built there last year, versus 365,204 BMWs and Minis sold in the US. Nobody exports more cars from the US — not Ford, not GM, not the Chrysler arm of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles: 287,700 BMW vehicles last year, or 70% of production, and 3.7 million vehicles since the plant opened in 1996.

Every BMW SUV (except the subcompact X1) is built in one factory – Spartanburg — then shipped to the 140 countries where BMWs are sold. Mercedes builds SUVs and compact C-Class cars at a factory in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and is building a factory for Sprinter vans in Charleston, SC.

[Rob C]

Just wondering, Alan, if you're aware that both BMW, VW and Mercedes manufacture some of their models in the USA. Mercedes even had a tie-up with Chrysler (not sure if they still do ). BMW with the 'Mini' and variations of the X series, Merc with the C and GLS class and VW the Passat and Atlas.

Regardless of tarrifs on those "quality" cars such as Mercedes and BMW, those already able to purchase will sigh, and carry right on to the next model whenever it comes out.

We are not talking selling to the Ford Fiesta crowd (moi) here, but to folks who can buy whatever the hell their hearts desire. Hiking the price just raises the desirability and satisfaction quotient. Some might even feel more exclusive because of it.

[Jeremy Roussak]

It'll depend on the terms, if any, agreed with the EU.

I don't understand your post.  Once GB leaves the EU, it won;t be tied to its trade policies.  GB won;t be a member any longer.

It's perfectly simple. If the terms agreed with the EU have an impact on the ability to deal with other countries, for example by allowing for regulations made in the EU to apply in the UK, then Britain will remain restricted by those terms. Deals are not done in isolation.

Jeremy

[Rob C]

It's perfectly simple. If the terms agreed with the EU have an impact on the ability to deal with other countries, for example by allowing for regulations made in the EU to apply in the UK, then Britain will remain restricted by those terms. Deals are not done in isolation.

Jeremy

Jeremy,

Thank you for reiterating what I have been attempting to communicate, to the same person, until the snap! moment arrived, when it became too tedious to continue.

I hope you have greater success than did I.

(If there is one positive to emerge from my encounter, it's that it reinforces my belief that, like photography, conversation is often best practised entirely on one's own! In the end, it often comes to much the same thing.)

;-)

Rob

[jeremyrh]

Absolutely.
Alan Klein asked a simple outline question - considering the context, it's a reasonable recap (in a couple sentences) of the two most plausible eventualities.
But, please, do expand on the question.

Edit:
Opinion piece in The Guardian by Simon Jenkins:  "Don’t worry, a no-deal Brexit won’t be allowed to happen"

Agree with your one-line summary but ... that article is utter garbage. Some things can carry on with no deal - planes can fly, trucks can roll, but other things will not happen - jobs for EU nationals, retirement houses for expats in Spain, because those things require the legitimacy of laws and confidence in a long term stability.

The country seems to have been utterly ****ed by the personal ambitions and ideologies of a few over-grown schoolboys. I despair.

[Alan Klein]

It's perfectly simple. If the terms agreed with the EU have an impact on the ability to deal with other countries, for example by allowing for regulations made in the EU to apply in the UK, then Britain will remain restricted by those terms. Deals are not done in isolation.

Jeremy

Thanks for clearing it up. 

So Trump's comment to May, "You can do what you want." is his unhappy acknowledgement that GB will do and arrange Brexit with the EU however they need too.  Prior to that,Trump was trying to pull GB away to negotiate with us directly.  It would have been a wedge against the rest of the EU.  It would also help us with tariffs with other non-EU countries like China especially as it would be the first crack in the tariff wall.  I guess May told him that it would probably be impossible  for GB to make that deal with the EU during Brexit because Britain can't afford not to be able to trade with the EU countries.

Of course, if they take on the same tariffs as the EU, they will be treated the same way as the EU.  So US tariff would be applied to BRitish products as well as the EU's.  So he will negotiate with the EU primarily at that point.  If by chance, GB does not have to follow the EU with tariffs, then we will negotiate a direct deal with Britain.  The EU will follow Britain.